Arc fault is a prevalent phenomenon in low-voltage residential power systems and the main cause of electrical fires. This paper explores the fire risks associated with arc faults and employs standards from arc fault detection devices (AFDD) to create an arc fault experimental system complemented by an integrated multi-sensor system for ignition related data collection. The objective is to synthetically examine the dynamic characteristics and ignition mechanisms of arc faults. This paper investigates the generation mechanisms, waveforms, and energy characteristics of arc faults, including waveform distinctions across different load types and patterns of energy variation during arcing. Data from the multi-sensor system become the cornerstone of the correlation analysis between the current, energy, and ignition phenomena, facilitating the construction of an ignition probability model based on maximum likelihood estimation. The reliability of the model is verified across various datasets with a 95 % confidence interval, offering a quantitative fire-inducing risk assessment of arc faults. Furthermore, the paper assesses the AFDD standards’ break time limits and evaluates the performance of seven AFDD prototypes based on the proposed model, demonstrating the effectiveness of this technology in mitigating the risks of fires induced by arc faults. This study systematically analyzes the behaviors and ignition mechanisms of arc faults, thereby providing scientific evidence and data that support the enhancement of arc fault detection technologies and the development of fire prevention strategies.
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