Arbitrage Efficiency Research Articles

The Profitability and Arbitrage Efficiency of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Nikkei 225 Futures

The Profitability and Arbitrage Efficiency of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Nikkei 225 Futures

The Efficiency of the Chinese Silver Standard, 1920–1933

We test for integration of financial markets in China during 1920-1933 using a new dataset of domestic exchange rates. Our data concerns tael-denominated telegraphic transfers between Shanghai and nine other cities. We find that Chinese financial markets, as measured by the efficiency of silver-point arbitrage, were highly integrated among major commercial hubs in north and central China, but there was a lower level of integration for more remote cities in the south. Our paper presents the first comprehensive assessment of the efficiency of the Chinese silver standard and contributes to a revaluation of market performance during pre-communist China.

The efficiency of regulatory arbitrage

Classic public choice skepticism about the regulatory state, based on theories of rent-seeking, rent extraction and regulatory capture, is based on the unrealistic, and usually unstated, assumption of a monopolist regulator. In practice, the regulatory state is polycentric, involving numerous quasi-independent agencies with overlapping responsibilities. This has led to a more optimistic picture based on the idea of regulatory arbitrage: when firms can, to some extent, pick and choose their preferred regulator, regulatory agencies are constrained to deliver relatively efficient regulatory policies. In our view, this optimism is also unrealistic. We build a family of models that explores the possible regulatory outcomes, and use some aspects of Gordon Tullock’s critique of the common law as a conceptual foundation for the analysis of the efficiency of a polycentric regulatory system.

An analysis of the arbitrage efficiency of the Chinese SSE 50ETF options market

This paper analyzes the arbitrage efficiency of the first Chinese 50ETF option contracts traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE). Put-call parity arbitrage, box spread arbitrage, and boundary arbitrage strategies are used to test the efficiency of the Chinese SSE 50ETF options market during the sample period (February 2015–April 2017). Furthermore, various transaction costs – such as transaction fees, market-impact costs, bid-ask spreads, margins and capital opportunity costs – and different scenarios are included in the arbitrage tests. The empirical results reveal that arbitrage opportunities are existing but infrequent when transaction costs are considered. In terms of box spread arbitrage and boundary arbitrage strategies, the percentage of profitable arbitrage opportunities is low. In terms of the put-call parity arbitrage strategy, the results held most of the time, and profitable arbitrage opportunities appear at times of great fluctuation in the Chinese stock market from May to September 2015. Further analysis of arbitrage opportunities in terms of both option moneyness and maturity show that more arbitrage opportunities appear in options with comparatively poor liquidity and inactive trading. Overall, there is no strong evidence found against the Chinese SSE 50ETF options market, although arbitrage opportunities exist infrequently.

The Informational Efficiency of European Natural Gas Hubs: Price Formation and Intertemporal Arbitrage

In this study, the informational efficiency of the European natural gas market is analyzed by empirically investigating price formation and arbitrage efficiency between spot and futures markets. Econometric approaches accounting for nonlinearities induced by the low liquidity-framework and by technical constraints of the considered gas hubs are specified. The empirical results reveal that price discovery generally takes place on the futures market. Thus, the futures market seems to be more informationally efficient than the spot market. The theory of storage seems to hold at all hubs in the long run. There is empirical evidence of significant market frictions hampering intertemporal arbitrage. UK’s NBP and Austria’s CEGH seem to be the hubs at which arbitrage opportunities are exhausted most efficiently, although there is convergence in the degree of intertemporal arbitrage efficiency over time at the hubs investigated.

The Effects of Increasing Option Multiplier on the Arbitrage Efficiency in KOSPI 200 Futures and Options Markets

This study examines put-call-futures parity in KOSPI 200 index futures and options markets for the sampling period between January of 2011 and December of 2013 in order to investigate whether option multiplier increasing affects on the arbitragee efficiency of an index option market and permanent relationship between futures and options markets by analyzing minute by minute historical index option and future intraday trading data. What we find is that the arbitrage opportunities associated with put-call-futures parity increase to 5.16% from 1.75% after increasing option multiplier. Although there is no significant change of discrepancies in ATM options, a slight decrease of mispricing is found in the moneyness where call option is OTM. It turns out, however, that the arbitrage opportunities increase by 3.4 times in the moneyness below 0.97 or above 1.03, after increasing multiplier. Also ex-ante analysis shows that most of arbitrage opportunities disappear within one minute, but the speed of dissipation becomes to decrease in the moneyness where the liquidity of ITM options declines to be a very low level. Overall our results suggest that the arbitrage efficiency in the KOSPI 200 index option markets might be deteriorated after an increasing of option multiplier.

Case Study: Porsche versus Volkswagen

This case study describes Porsche’s attempt to acquire Volkswagen. It covers the timeline of events and major press releases, the history of the two companies, their operating and financial performances and ownership structures. The case also illustrates the role of the state as a shareholder, the importance of financial regulation, arbitrage, hedge funds, short-selling and market efficiency. The case is designed to stimulate students and create a desire to dig deeper. A teaching note provides a more detailed and comprehensive picture including possibilities for role play. The teaching note can be obtained from the author.

Price Transmission Asymmetry in Spatial Grain Markets in Ethiopia

AbstractAcknowledging the link between competitive and efficient spatial agricultural markets and farm productivity, the government of Ethiopia has implemented various market enhancing policy and institutional measures. The effectiveness of these measures to achieve their policy goals, among others, depends on the degree of symmetry prices transmit across spatial markets as well as on the efficiency of spatial arbitrage. We tested the presence of asymmetric price adjustment in the spatial grain markets in Ethiopia. The result provided clear evidence of asymmetric price adjustment for teff crops, but not for maize. For teff crops, prices adjust quickly to shocks that increase price than shocks that reduce prices. The analysis on the efficiency of the grain markets also showed that the spatial markets are characterized by a significant level of inefficiency. Although further research is necessary to establish the real causes for the observed asymmetric price transmission and market inefficiency, the finding suggests that departure from perfectly competitive settings are partly to be blamed for the recent food crops price hikes. In addition to their undesirable redistributional consequences, price transmissions asymmetry and inefficiency are expected to entail efficiency loss. Future empirical work in this area should strive to explain the underlying reasons for the observed asymmetric price transmission and market inefficiency.

Limits to Arbitrage: The Case of Single Stock Futures and Spot Prices

Market frictions such as transactions costs, funding constraints and short selling constraints limit arbitrage, but these frictions affect different stocks differently. Using intraday data on a liquid single stock futures and spot market, we examine the effect of these frictions on arbitrage efficiency of the two markets. We find evidence of significant cross-sectional variation in the size and asymmetricity of no-arbitrage bands. To the extent that market frictions affect all stocks similarly, commonality in the size of no-arbitrage bands is expected. We find that 17% of variation in the size of no-arbitrage bands is explained by the first principal component. Changes in funding liquidity is a key factor that determines variation in the common component.

The Impact of Sampling Frequency on Intraday Correlation and Lead–Lag Relationships Between Index Futures and Individual Stocks

Transaction costs, liquidity effects, capital limits, and regulatory restrictions reduce arbitrage efficiency and weaken the link between futures prices and their underlying stocks. This study examines how the sampling frequency for return calculation affects the intraday correlation and the lead–lag relationship between the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index futures, the underlying cash index, an exchange‐traded fund (ETF) that mimics the index, and each component stock. The paper uses firm bid and offer quotes to eliminate the negative bias in measuring the correlation between the futures and the less liquid stocks. The sampling frequency significantly affects the futures‐stock dynamic relationship, particularly for small‐cap stocks. The overall results indicate that market participants trade ETF and the largest index's constituent stocks to capitalize on index arbitrage opportunities. The lag of the cash index is greatest against futures price movement, a reflection of the adverse impact of stale prices on the informational role of stock indexes. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 35:939–952, 2015

An Investigation of Box‐Spread Strategy and Arbitrage Efficiency on Indian Index Options Market

The aim of the present study is to examine the internal market efficiency of the Indian index options by testing S and P CNX Nifty index options using box-spread arbitrage strategy. Daily closing prices of index options from April 01, 2008 to March 31, 2012 are used to identify the mispricing and arbitrage opportunities with the model-free box-spread approach. The result of the sensitivity analysis of violations with respect to time to maturity and moneyness demonstrates that the majority of violations in options contract are deceptive, as the liquidity is expected to be very low in such contracts. Further, the proportion of exploitable violations severely falls after considering the transaction costs, as most of the profits were wiped out and showing negative profits. Thus, although the Indian index options market shows traces of inefficiency, in totality it is suggested that the Indian index options market is efficient as majority of violations are un-exploitable after incorporating transaction costs.

Reforms, WTO, arbitrage efficiency and integration between the China‐US soybean markets

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach to market analysis, and test how the China‐US soybean market integration and arbitrage efficiency have changed across 1995/1‐/2004/1 – a period covering strengthened government efforts to join WTO, and the institutional changes following WTO accession.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ a regime‐switching model with parametric, semi‐parametric, and nonparametric measures to discern different market conditions in the sample period, as well as detect the structural shifts over time. Three types of data – expected prices, transaction costs, and trade flow – are used for the analysis.FindingsResults of the analysis indicate better integration over time, but deteriorating efficiency. The markets often departed from efficient arbitrage throughout the study periods, and counter‐intuitively worsened after China's elimination of quota in 1999, and accession to WTO in 2001. One other interesting finding is that the state monopoly practice in soybean trading during the early periods produced seemingly competitive equilibrium price relationships.Originality/valueThe paper is an original work that provides policy implications regarding the impacts and effectiveness of government policies on China's international soybean markets, the remaining bottlenecks, and the challenge to both Chinese soybean farmers and the US exporters. The method of identifying trade variation in a price model and the combination of parametric and semi‐parametric analyses with comprehensive data further permits more accurate and intuitive interpretations previously unavailable.

Statistical Arbitrage and Market Efficiency: Enhanced Theory, Robust Tests and Further Applications

Statistical arbitrage enables tests of market efficiency which circumvent the joint-hypotheses dilemma. This paper makes several contributions to the statistical arbitrage framework. First, we enlarge the set of statistical arbitrage opportunities in Hogan, Jarrow, Teo, and Warachka (2004) to avoid penalizing incremental trading profits with positive deviations from their expected value. Second, we provide a statistical methodology to remedy the lack of consistency and statistical power in their Bonferroni approach. In addition, this procedure allows for autocorrelation and non-normality in trading profits. Third, we apply our tests to a wide range of trading strategies based on stock momentum, stock value, stock liquidity, and industry momentum. Over 50% of these strategies are found to violate market efficiency. We also identify dominant trading strategies which converge to arbitrage most rapidly.

Index Arbitrage and Futures Pricing Efficiency: Evidence from Thailand

Using both daily and intraday data, this research examines the contribution of the exchange-traded fund TDEX to pricing efficiency of the SET50 futures with respect to the SET50 index. In order to analyze the efficiency of the SET50 futures price, frequencies of mispricing and arbitrage as well as arbitrage profitability are measured. In particular, the following three arbitrage trades are analyzed: (1) SET50 futures vs. TDEX, (2) SET50 futures vs. SET50 component stocks, and (3) TDEX vs. SET50 component stocks. Empirical evidence indicates that the introduction of TDEX does not contribute to pricing efficiency of SET50 futures with respect to the cash index.

Put-Call Parity and Arbitrage Efficiency of KOSPI 200 Options Market

Put-Call Parity and Arbitrage Efficiency of KOSPI 200 Options Market

Market Integration and Arbitrage Efficiency in International Agricultural Markets: A New Regime-Switching Approach

A market regime-switching model is developed that has rate of trade identified using a rent-weighted approach. The model also indirectly accounts for the impacts of other competitors through separate specifications of variation parameters across alternate seasons. Commodity futures prices are utilized as the expected revenue indicator in a present value framework. An application of the methods to US-China soybean trade demonstrates that knowing how trade change allows more precise understanding of market conditions. Nontrivial deviations from efficient arbitrage are detected in US-China soybean trade, although the two markets are integrated most of the time. The prices link more closely after China joined WTO. A significantly higher rent variation has also been found during the South American harvest season.

Investigating the Pricing Efficiency of Indian Equity Futures Market

The present study examines the arbitrage efficiency of the Indian equity futures market over the sample period June 2000 to December 2005. The results suggest that although stable and strong long-run relationship exists between futures and cash markets but futures show significant deviations from its cost-of-carry price, which offers exploitable arbitrage opportunities to the traders. Mispricing has been observed to be a direct function of time-to-maturity, stochastic behavior of interest rates, short sales restriction in the cash market, information asymmetry in both futures and cash markets and restricted exposure of institutional traders to the futures market. Moreover, basis shows significant mean reverting behavior, which indicates that early liquidation option as suggested by Neal (1996) may be helpful in improving the price discovery efficiency in futures as well as cash markets.

Order imbalance and the dynamics of index and futures prices

AbstractThis study uses transaction records of index futures and index stocks, with bid/ask price quotes, to examine the impact of stock market order imbalance on the dynamic behavior of index futures and cash index prices. Spurious correlation in the index is purged by using an estimate of the “true” index with highly synchronous and active quotes of individual stocks. A smooth transition autoregressive error correction model is used to describe the nonlinear dynamics of the index and futures prices. Order imbalance in the cash stock market is found to affect significantly the error correction dynamics of index and futures prices. Order imbalance impedes error correction particularly when the market impact of order imbalance works against the error correction force of the cash index, explaining why real potential arbitrage opportunities may persist over time. Incorporating order imbalance in the framework significantly improves its explanatory power. The findings indicate that a stock market microstructure that allows a quick resolution of order imbalance promotes dynamic arbitrage efficiency between futures and underlying stocks. The results also suggest that the unloading of cash stocks by portfolio managers in a falling market situation aggravates the price decline and increases the real cost of hedging with futures. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:1129–1157, 2007

Evidence on the arbitrage efficiency of SPI index futures and options markets

This paper is concerned with arbitrage opportunities in the futures and futures option contracts traded on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE) within a put-call-futures-parity (PCFP) framework. Tick-by-tick transaction price data are employed so that the futures contracts, the call futures options and the put futures options can be matched within a one-minute interval. This paper also takes into account the realistic transaction costs that an arbitrager has to incur, including the implicit bid-ask spread. A thorough ex post analysis is first carried out. The results reveal a significant number of violations of the PCFP in the sample. Ex ante tests are then conducted whereby ex post profitable arbitrage strategies, signified by the matched trios of futures, put and call contracts, are executed with lags up to 3 min. The ex ante results are similar to the ex post results. However, further analysis reveals that the exploitability of the identified arbitrage opportunities is very limited due to the small trading volumes of the futures and options contracts. Thus, we conclude that there is no strong evidence against the arbitrage efficiency between the SPI index futures and options markets in Australia.

Order Imbalance and the Dynamics of Index and Futures Prices

This study uses transaction records of index futures and the index stocks, with bid/ask price quotes, to examine the impact of stock market order imbalance on the dynamic behavior of index futures and cash index prices. Spurious correlation in the index is purged by using an estimate of the true index with highly synchronous and active quotes of individual stocks. A smooth transition autoregressive error-correction model (STAECM) is used to describe the nonlinear dynamics of the index and futures prices. Order imbalance in the cash stock market is found to significantly affect the error-correction dynamics of index and futures prices. Order imbalance impedes error-correction particularly when the market impact of order imbalance works against the error-correction force of the cash index, explaining why real potential arbitrage opportunity may persist over some time. Incorporating order imbalance in the framework significantly improves its explanatory power. The findings indicate that a stock market microstructure that allows a quick resolution of order imbalance promotes dynamic arbitrage efficiency between futures and the underlying stocks.