Aral Sea Research Articles

Farmers on the front line: Perceptions, practices and discrepancies from the Aral Sea's Karakalpakstan and Khorezm regions

AbstractUndesirable changes in surface water and groundwater resources and land quality for biophysical and institutional reasons will further endanger the livelihoods of people in Central Asia. The farmers' understanding of these problems and the adaptation and solution strategies they opt for are the critical variables in devising relevant policies. Our findings captured significant disparities between farmer‐perceived water shortages and officially documented water availability, as well as soil salinity discrepancies. Farmers' coping strategies, including crop alterations and water‐saving measures, often lead to trade‐offs, such as reduced crop yields. The study highlights the need to consider farmer perceptions and practices along with official data when designing policies. Effective policymaking must consider this dynamic interplay and the multifaceted challenges faced by farmers in these vulnerable Aral Sea regions.

Exploring the human-nature nexus towards effective nature-based solutions: the Aral Sea case

Incorporating societal challenges and values into the design of locally appropriate nature-based solutions (NbS) is an integral strategy for ensuring benefits for both communities and the environment. But how are human-nature relations impacted when the environments containing resources which are valued and relied on, undergo dramatic and sustained change on decadal timescales? To explore this interplay, we selected Muynak as a case study, once a thriving town on the shores of the former Aral Sea in Uzbekistan. We conducted a social survey among the residents to identify the use of natural resources and the values they assign to the most common and yet highly degraded resources in the area (wetlands, rangelands, afforested areas, the Aral Sea, and wildlife). The survey was complemented with expert interviews. Our study suggests that grasslands are the most frequently used of the resources under study, while wetlands and wildlife are generally more valued. Overall, resources were more culturally valued than financially, historically, or recreationally. The majority of respondents perceived a degradation in most natural resources over the past decade, particularly wetlands (79 %), followed by grasslands (48 %), and the Aral Sea (42 %). Wetlands were reported to be in a state of ongoing degradation by 79 % of respondents, which negatively affected the livelihoods of almost half of the households in the survey area. Afforested areas were the only resources reported to have a positive perceived change in both status and their effect on well-being. The vast majority of respondents (83 %) felt that human well-being was linked to environmental conditions. This study lays the foundation for future interventions to develop nature-based solutions to benefit both people and nature, and highlights the continuing value placed on nature by residents of an area that has suffered substantial anthropogenic degradation.

Multivariate time series convolutional neural networks for long-term agricultural drought prediction under global warming

Agricultural drought (AD) is disastrous to crop production and plant growth. The prediction of AD with sufficient lead time is helpful for developing agricultural water strategy, particularly under the context of global warming. However, the previous studies mainly focused on short lead times (1–6 months) and only used 3 or less variables to predict AD through copula models. In this study, a novel multivariate time series convolutional neural network (T-CNN) is developed to predict AD with long lead times based on multiple meteorological variables. To demonstrate its feasibility and novelty, T-CNN is used in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) where agricultural production is dominant. Three global climate models (GCMs) and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) from CMIP6 are considered during 2026–2100. Results indicate that (1) precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, relative humidity and northward wind are significantly correlated with AD, and are selected as the predictors of AD; (2) compared with the conventional CNN and convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM), T-CNN’s performance is better, taking only about 10% of the computation time of ConvLSTM; (3) T-CNN can effectively extract the spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological predictors and reproduce AD, showing high correlation coefficients (R>0.9) for 92.5% of the grids across ASB; (4) the result of simple model averaging (SMA) is better than other GCMs, indicating that the spatial differences in AD would become more pronounced with increasing time and emission level; (5) compared with the historical period, under SSP585, the extreme drought would increase 0.20 months/year (2026–2050), 0.23 months/year (2051–2075) and 0.28 months/year (2076–2100). The results highlight the spatiotemporal variation of AD in 21st century with a high resolution (0.1°×0.1°), which can provide scientific support for agricultural water management and long-term drought prevention in ASB.

Soil meliorative condition of the south-eastern part of the Aral sea dried bottom

The article presents materials of scientific research carried out in the south-eastern part of the former Aral Sea dried bottom. During the study, soil sections were laid using generally accepted methods in soil science. Morphological and genetic properties of soils were described, soil samples were taken for determination of granulometric composition and chemical analyses. According to the results of determination of granulometric composition the content of mechanical elements was determined. The results of chemical analyses revealed the content of cations and anions, type and degree of salinisation, as well as the reaction of the soil environment.

Improving efficiency and sustainability of water-agriculture-energy nexus in a transboundary river basin under climate change: A double-sided stochastic factional optimization method

In this study, a double-sided stochastic fractional programming (DSFP) method is developed for identifying optimal water-allocation schemes of water-agriculture-energy nexus (WAEN) system under considering climate change impact. The advantages of DSFP are (i) handling complex uncertainty of double-sided randomness, (ii) addressing conflicting objectives with optimal system efficiency, and (iii) achieving trade-off between marginal benefit and system risk. Then, a DSFP-based water-agriculture-energy nexus (DSFP-WAEN) model is formulated for water resources allocation in a transboundary river basin of Central Asia, where 48 scenarios are designed to examine the impacts of climate change, irrigation efficiency, and system risk over a long-term planning horizon (2026–2050). Results reveal that: (i) among all agricultural activities, cash crop cultivation shows the greatest change in adaption to climate change, with the share of cash crop cultivation increasing to 70.7% by 2050 under RCP4.5; (ii) Kazakhstan, which has the largest irrigation needs and is the county most sensitive to water supply risk, should be the first to be constrained in the case of severe water shortages and poor delivery levels; (iii) the improvement of irrigation efficiency can increase the inflow to the Aral Sea by 2.7%, and reduce water loss of infield irrigation by 11.3% even under severe water shortage (i.e. p = 0.01). Compared with the models based on the traditional stochastic programming and single-objective methods, DSFP-WAEN has advantages in optimizing water-use efficiency and reflecting system complexity with flexible solutions. To coordinate transboundary water conflicts, strategies from both demand and supply sides related to quota management and water-saving techniques are suggested for the Syr Darya River basin, such as clean energy transition, drip irrigation promotion and canal system improvement. From a long-term planning perspective, WAEN schemes should be adapted to risk attitude and climate change, which can help address water scarcity and achieve future sustainability.

Aral Sea: Environmental disaster and its consequences

The article examines the history of the Aral Sea and the environmental disaster of the twentieth century associated with the disappearance of the world's fourth sea body of water. A comprehensive author’s research at the interdisciplinary level showed the role and place of the Aral Sea from the moment of its formation in the surrounding space, its influence on the socio-economic development of coastal areas. The purpose of the undertaken research was to determine the cause-and-effect relationships that determined the large-scale man-made environmental disaster that occurred on the border line of the two states of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The authors tried to show how the disappearance of the sea affected the ecological state of the environment, namely the Kyzyl-Orda region, where the remains of the Aral Sea are located. The article provides statistical indicators on the topic of the research, their comparative analysis and the dynamics of the state of the environmental situation in the Aral Sea region. The authors introduce a visual representation of the changes in the Aral Sea throughout modern and recent times. In conclusion, the authors demonstrate the existence of measures taken by the state in an attempt to restore the Small Aral Sea by constructing a hydraulic structure.

Profile of desert sandy soils formed in the Aral Sea dried-up seabed

In subsequent years, as a result of the strengthening of natural and anthropogenic factors, the inability of the Amu Darya and Sir Darya waters to flow into the Aral Sea, the mechanical composition of desert sandy soils, the type of salinization, the degree of salinization, the variety of humus content in the soils common in the soil covers of the dried seabed were studied. During the study of the study area soils, the strong salinization of soils was noted by the chloride-sulfate salinization type and the salinization in the surface layer of the soil profile section No. 47, that is, in the layers 0- 9 cm and 9-50 cm deep, and weak salinization by the sulfate-chloride salinization type and the salinization in the lower layer of the soil profile. In the surface layer of the studied desert sandy soils, that is, by 0-9 cm and 9- 50 cm, the humus content ranged from 0.418% to 0.528%. On the dried bottom of the Aral Sea, because of strong evaporation of groundwater in the soil profile, an intensive process of accumulation of salt crystals took place, and desert sandy soils became highly saline.

The problem of the Aral Sea drying up and its impact on the physical development of children in the Republic of Uzbekistan

Currently, one of the largest global environmental disasters in recent history is the Aral Sea tragedy, which by its environmental, climatic, socio-economic and humanitarian consequences poses a direct threat to the sustainable development of the region, health, gene pool and future of the people living there. The problem of the Aral Sea has left its imprint on the physical development of children in this region, and there is a tendency to change the physique of children in the direction of reduction of some dimensional features. This article is devoted to the results of the study of figures of preschool children in the Republic of Uzbekistan in order to identify changes in the dimensional characteristics of children.

A good word on topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva in small impoundments in the Aral Sea watershed (Central Asia, Kazakhstan)

Biological invasions are one of the most powerful negative factors threatening the natural biological diversity and well-being of continental water bodies. In the Aral Sea (Small Aral) basin, it has now been possible to stabilize the catastrophe that arose as a result of the irrational use of water resources. However, the diversity and impact of alien fish species on water ecosystems remains little known. For 10 years, we studied the distribution of one fish species, topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva (Temminck & Schlegel, 1846) in water bodies of the Aral Basin in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Now, this species is found everywhere in the Syrdarya River itself, floodplain lakes and most tributaries, but is not numerous. Using the example of two small local impoundments, the ratio of the abundance of topmouth gudgeon and other fish species was studied. There was no significant correlation between the presence of topmouth gudgeon and the presence/absence of other fish species. There is also no any significant correlation between the total number of fish (abundance) and topmouth gudgeon abundance, diversity indices and topmouth gudgeon abundance. The findings do not suggest that topmouth gudgeon has a negative impact on other fish species. More likely, this species is able to quickly expand new habitats, but under more stable conditions of water bodies it gives way to other fish species. At high water temperatures, topmouth gudgeon remains the only fish species that feeds on the larvae of blood-sucking Culex and Anopheles mosquitoes.

Assessment of aerosol particles using a new index

Dry beds of lakes and surrounding areas play an important role in dust production. This work develops a new index called Aerosol Type Detection Index using the Extinction Coefficient and Depolarization Ratio. The developed index shows values between zero and 0.15 for desert dust and -0.3 to zero for polluted desert dust particles in two regions including the Aral Sea in Central Asia and Hamoun Lake in Sistan, Iran. Although the dried beds of these lakes are susceptible to strong winds, wind speed profiles show that north of the Aral Sea and northwest of Hamoun Lake can be dust storm sources in these regions.

Landscaping of settlements in the Aral Sea disaster zone (Kazakhstan)

The role of landscaping in ameliorating the environmental conditions within settlements surrounding the Aral Sea is paramount. The primary natural constraints affecting the proliferation of plant species in the green spaces of Aralsk include low winter temperatures, elevated summer temperatures, meager precipitation, and susceptibility to windstorms. An evaluation of the species composition of tree and shrub vegetation was conducted in landscaped areas belonging to social and cultural facilities, as well on private residential property, within the municipal boundaries of Aralsk. Plantings surveyed encompassed an area of approximately 34,000 m2. 89.5% of the flora is comprised of five predominant taxa: Ulmus pumila, Populus x canadensis, Haloxylon ammodendron, Platycladus orientalis, and Acer negundo. These species demonstrate resilience to both high and low temperatures throughout the growing season, and their availability as planting material in the region further enhances their suitability. Presently, the city incorporates 31 taxa of tree and shrub species in its green spaces. Notably, Ulmus glabra, Catalpa ovata, Platanus orientalis, Hibiscus syriacus, and Prunus padus have been introduced and were not previously observed in the city. Analysis of the age distribution reveals 68.7% of young trees, underscoring ongoing landscaping efforts within the city even amid a shortage of irrigation water.

Intragroup variability of growth in perch, Perca fluviatilis L., 1758 (Percidae) in waterbodies in the watershed of the Middle Ishim

As a result of the research carried out in 2016-2021 on the lakes of the Shchuchinsk-Borovoe resort area and on the Ishim River, material was obtained on the intragroup variability in the growth of perch. The absence of sexual variability was noted, which is explained by the relative stability and positive influence of environmental factors. The revealed generational variability of growth showed both a noticeable decrease in its rates in Lake Shchuchie and a significant increase in Lakes Borovoe, Katarkol and Tekekol. These processes of linear growth dynamics are caused by the interaction of hydrological and trophic factors. In all samples, a division of the general population into two clusters (incremental morphs) with different growth characteristics was observed. They correspond to the traditionally identified “coastal” and “pelagic” morphs of perch from the largest bodies of water (e.g. the former Aral Sea), but their differences are revealed statistically and not visually. Perch populations differ in the proportion of these clusters, which largely determines the average length per generation in general samples. Based on the characteristics of the back calculation of linear growth for clusters, all samples can be divided into two types, which in miniature resemble species-specific evolutionary r- and K-strategies (but not identical to it).

Insight into endophytic microbial diversity in two halophytes and plant beneficial attributes of Bacillus swezeyi.

This study utilized high-throughput sequencing to investigate endophytic bacteria diversity in halophytic plants Anabasis truncate (AT) and Anabasis eriopoda (AE) from the Aral Sea region. Following sequence processing, 356 Amplicon Sequence Variants (ASVs) were discovered. The abundance and variety of endophytic bacteria were higher in AT. Bacillota, Pseudomonadota, Actinomycetota, and Bacteroidota constituted the dominant in AE, whereas Pseudomonadota, Actinomycetota, Bacteroidota, and Chloroflexota constituted the dominant in AT. Biomarkers were identified through LEFSe analysis, showing host-specific patterns. PCoA indicated distinct bacterial community structures. Phylogenetic analysis revealed diverse endophytic bacteria, including potential novel taxa. PICRUSt2 predicted diverse functions for endophytic bacteria in halophytes, indicating recruitment of beneficial bacterial taxa to adapt to extreme hypersaline conditions, including plant growth-promoting, biocontrol, and halophilic/tolerant bacteria. Moreover, the evolutionary relationship, metabolic capabilities, and plant beneficial potentials of the Bacillus swezeyi strains, previously isolated from the above two halophytes, were analyzed using comparative genomic and physiological analysis. The B. swezeyi strains displayed versatile environmental adaptability, as shown by their ability to use a wide range of carbon sources and their salt tolerances. B. swezeyi possessed a wide range of enzymatic capabilities, including but not limited to proteases, cellulases, and chitinases. Comparative genomic analysis revealed that despite some variations, they shared genetic similarities and metabolic capabilities among the B. swezeyi strains. B. swezeyi strains also displayed outstanding plant-growth-promoting and antagonistic potentials, offering potential solutions to the global food crisis. This study enhances our understanding of microbial diversity in halophytes on saline-alkali land in the West Aral Sea, shedding light on the halophyte microbiome and its collaboration with hosts in highly hypersaline environments. This study also provides a scientific basis for developing high-quality microbial fertilizers and implementing sustainable agricultural practices.

New data on the Pleistocene history of the Aral Sea-Lake

A 23.5 m deep borehole was drilled on the dried bed of the Aral Sea 9 km south of the former Barsakelmes Island. At a depth of 21.3 m, the borehole penetrated Paleogene bedrock. In the interval 21.3 - 15.2 m the conditions of a shallow freshwater reservoir at a considerable distance from the flowing rivers (deltaic channels of the Syr Darya River) - the first phase of filling of the Aral Basin with river water - were reconstructed. It has been preliminary attributed by three 14C AMS dates to the time about 23-25 thousand years BP. Above 15.2 m of the section the conditions become even more shallow, starting from 12.0 m of the section - brackish-water. The upper 10.5 m of the section correlates with the sediments of the modern geological phase of the Aral Sea development studied in detail in the same area by Burr et al. (2019), the beginning of which was estimated at 17.6 thousand BP. The new data obtained indicate an earlier appearance of the modern Aral Sea, which originated as a shallow freshwater body.

Promising directions determination of the forecast values development of agrobiochemistry services in the Aral Sea Basin

Based on the developed forecast, stable growth rates are expected for bio laboratory services in the region over the next five years. Specifically, by 2027, there will be a decrease in the growth rate by 5.1%, but an overall increase of 1.3 times is anticipated if the cost of gross services rendered amounts to 5087.6 thousand UZS. Additionally, the number of enterprises is projected to increase by 1.17 times compared to 2022 by 2027. The forecast indicates that in 2023, there will be a 9.6% increase in the number of operating enterprises, but only a 6.4% increase in the volume of services. This leads to a reduction in the volume of services per entity. To address this issue, it is proposed to support entities that supply bio laboratory services. This support could help maintain and improve the quality and availability of bio laboratory services in the region.

Cultivation of plants based on new technologies in the dry soil of the Aral Sea

The article presents the results of research aimed at growing plants on the basis of different technologies in the relic-swamp salt-sand desert soils of the Aral Sea. The amount of annual precipitation on the soils of this area formed in the conditions of the arid climate region is 180-200 mm. Many factors should be taken into account for growing plants in these areas. It is necessary to choose a suitable halophyte plant for marshy saline soils and to take into consideration sharp changes in temperature throughout the season. Planting in these soils is due to atmospheric precipitation and groundwater. Therefore, experiments were carried out on plant cultivation in the pipe method, and the efficiency was up to 1.5 times higher than in conventional conditions. The combined use of different technologies with the pipeline method has further increased efficiency.

Applying the ELSA Framework to Assess Ecosystem Vulnerability in Wetlands of the Aral Sea Region

Wetlands are vital ecosystems that provide numerous ecological services, including water purification, flood control, and wildlife habitat. However, wetlands are under threat due to human activities and climate change. Accurate mapping and monitoring of wetlands are crucial for effective conservation and management. Remote sensing techniques have revolutionized wetland mapping by providing detailed and up-to-date information on wetland extent, vegetation composition, and hydrological patterns. Wetlands play a crucial role in global ecosystems, providing numerous ecological services such as flood control, water purification, and habitat for diverse flora and fauna. Monitoring of the wetland dynamics are essential for effective conservation and sustainable management. This research paper provides a detailed examination of recent advances in remote sensing research of wetlands, focusing on the utilization of inventory geoecological mapping. Wetland ecosystems are dynamic and sensitive to environmental changes, making their monitoring a challenging but imperative task. Remote sensing technologies offer a unique opportunity to observe and analyze wetland characteristics at various scales. We explore the use of remote sensing in wetlands mapping, highlighting its benefits, challenges, and future prospects with a special emphasis on vulnerability assessment and vulnerability prediction using ELSA (Essential Life Support Area) approach.

Assessment of the transfer of the dust-sand-salt material from the dry bottom of the Aral Sea

Assessment of the transfer of the dust-sand-salt material from the dry bottom of the Aral Sea

Designing the Demise of Aral Sea: Strategies to Sustain Aesthetics and Performance in Anthropogenic Landscapes

Designing the Demise of Aral Sea: Strategies to Sustain Aesthetics and Performance in Anthropogenic Landscapes

Identification of prevalence and degree of infection of paramphistomatosis of cattle according to the age: Case of districts of the Republic of Karakalpakstan

According to our research, the ecological situation in Karakalpakstan has gotten worse recently. This includes the Aral Sea tragedy, the drying up of many lakes due to droughts, the loss of most of the natural gastrotilax foci, as well as other paramphistomata like P.ichikawae and rare cases of L.scotiae. The purpose of this study was to assess the prevalence of paramphistomatosis in cattle across different districts of the Republic of Karakalpakstan and to evaluate the infection's impact based on the animals' age. Research was conducted in the districts of Tortkul, Amudarya, Ellikkala, and Beruni. Methods included helmintoovoscopic examination of dung samples from 478 cattle and comprehensive helminthological dissection of 40 cattle. Results indicated an average infection rate of 3.9%, with the highest prevalence in Amudarya district (5.5%) and the lowest in Tortkul district (3.3%). Age-wise, infection rates were 3.5% in calves (6-12 months), 3.7% in young cattle (1-2 years), and 2.5% in older cattle (2 years and older). The study concluded that paramphistomatosis is a significant issue in Karakalpakstan, with notable age and regional variations. The Amudarya district, with more natural freshwater mollusc biotopes, exhibited a higher prevalence, suggesting a correlation between mollusc populations and infection rates.