This study delves into the complex connections between forest rent, forest extraction, green investment, health expenditure, education expenditure, and environmental pollution, specifically focusing on carbon dioxide emissions. Utilizing a Nonlinear Autoregressive Model, this study analyzes data from China's Carbon Neutrality Program for the period 1970–2022. The results indicate asymmetric cointegration between the variables under investigation. In the short term, sustainable forest rent, green investment, and educational expenditure have a significant impact on CO2 emissions. Negative shocks to forest rent, green investment, and education expenditures negatively affect CO2 emissions in the long run, while positive shocks to forest rent, green investment, and education expenditures have a positive impact on CO2 emissions in the long run. Additionally, health expenditures have a negative impact on CO2 emissions in the long run. These findings provide actionable policy recommendations for China's Carbon Neutrality Program, emphasizing the need for comprehensive approaches that prioritize sustainability, resource conservation, and emission reduction.