Approximate Frequentist Validity Research Articles

Predictive sets with approximate frequentist and Bayesian validity for arbitrary priors

With a view to predicting a scalar-valued future observation on the basis of past observations, we explore predictive sets having frequentist as well as Bayesian validity for arbitrary priors in a higher-order asymptotic sense. It is found that a connection with locally unbiased tests is useful for this purpose. Illustrative examples are given. Computation and simulation studies lend support to our asymptotic results in finite samples. The issue of expected lengths of our predictive sets is also discussed.

A Monte Carlo simulation study of two-sided tolerance intervals in balanced one-way random effects model for non-normal errors

Recently, Ong and Mukerjee [Probability matching priors for two-sided tolerance intervals in balanced one-way and two-way nested random effects models. Statistics. 2011;45:403–411] developed two-sided Bayesian tolerance intervals, with approximate frequentist validity, for a future observation in balanced one-way and two-way nested random effects models. These were obtained using probability matching priors (PMP). On the other hand, Krishnamoorthy and Lian [Closed-form approximate tolerance intervals for some general linear models and comparison studies. J Stat Comput Simul. 2012;82:547–563] studied closed-form approximate tolerance intervals by the modified large-sample (MLS) approach. We compare the performances of these two approaches for normal as well as non-normal error distributions. Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to evaluate the resulting tolerance intervals with regard to achieved confidence levels and expected widths. It turns out that PMP tolerance intervals are less conservative for data with large number of classes and small number of observations per class and the MLS procedure is preferable for smaller sample sizes.

Data-dependent probability matching priors for likelihood ratio and adjusted likelihood ratio statistics

We consider likelihood ratio statistics based on the usual profile likelihood and the standard adjustments thereof proposed in the literature in the presence of nuisance parameters. The role of data-dependent priors in ensuring approximate frequentist validity of posterior credible regions based on the inversion of these statistics is investigated. Unlike what happens with data-free priors, it is seen that the resulting probability matching conditions readily admit solutions which entail approximate frequentist validity of the highest posterior density region as well.

A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.

On the approximate frequentist validity of the posterior quantiles of a parametric function: results based on empirical and related likelihoods

With reference to a wide class of empirical and related likelihoods, we study priors which ensure approximate frequentist validity of the posterior quantiles of a general parametric function. It is seen that no data-free prior entails such frequentist validity but, at least for the usual empirical likelihood, a data-dependent prior serves the purpose. Accounting for the nonlinearity of the parametric function of interest requires special attention in the derivation. A simulation study is seen to provide support, in finite samples, to our asymptotic results.

Probability matching priors for two-sided tolerance intervals in balanced one-way and two-way nested random effects models

We consider two-sided Bayesian tolerance intervals, with approximate frequentist validity, for a future observation in balanced one-way and two-way nested random effects models. Probability matching conditions, specific to this problem, are derived in either case via a technique that involves inversion of approximate posterior characteristic functions. In addition to yielding probability matching priors for the present problem, these conditions are useful in evaluating certain other priors that have received attention in the literature.

Empirical-type likelihoods allowing posterior credible sets with frequentist validity: Higher-order asymptotics

SUMMARY With reference to a general class of empirical-type likelihoods, we develop higher-order asymptotics for the frequentist coverage of Bayesian credible sets based on posterior quantiles and highest posterior density. These asymptotics, in turn, characterise members of the class that allow approximate frequentist validity of such sets. It is seen that the usual empirical likelihood does not enjoy this property up to the order of approximation considered here.

Probability matching property of adjusted likelihoods

For models characterized by a scalar parameter, it is well known that Jeffrey's prior ensures approximate frequentist validity of posterior quantiles. We examine how far this result remains robust in the presence of nuisance parameters, when the interest parameter θ 1 is scalar, a prior on θ 1 alone is considered, and the analysis is based on an adjusted version of the profile likelihood, rather than the true likelihood. This provides justification, from a Bayesian viewpoint, for some popular adjustments in term of their ability to neutralize unknown nuisance parameters. The dual problem of identifying adjustments that make a given prior on θ 1 probability matching in the above sense is also addressed.

Implementing matching priors for frequentist inference

SUMMARY Nuisance parameters do not pose any problems in Bayesian inference as marginalisation allows for study of the posterior distribution solely in terms of the parameter of interest. However, no general solution is available for removing nuisance parameters under the frequentist paradigm. In this paper, we merge the two approaches to construct a general procedure for frequentist elimination of nuisance parameters through the use of matching priors. In particular, we perform Bayesian marginalisation with respect to a prior distribution under which posterior inferences have approximate frequentist validity. Matching priors are constructed as solutions to a partial differential equation. Unfortunately, except in simple cases, these partial differential equations do not yield to analytical nor even standard numerical methods of solution. We present a numerical/Monte Carlo algorithm for obtaining the matching prior, in general, as a solution to the appropriate partial differential equation and draw posterior inferences. To be specific, we develop an automated routine through an implementation of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for deriving frequentist valid inferences via the matching prior. We illustrate our results in the contexts of fitting random effects models, fitting logistic regression models and fitting teratological data by beta-binomial models.

Probability matching priors for predicting a dependent variable with application to regression models

In a Bayesian setup, we consider the problem of predicting a dependent variable given an independent variable and past observations on the two variables. An asymptotic formula for the relevant posterior predictive density is worked out. Considering posterior quantiles and highest predictive density regions, we then characterize priors that ensure approximate frequentist validity of Bayesian prediction in the above setting. Application to regression models is also discussed.

Probability matching priors for predicting unobservable random effects with application to ANOVA models

We characterize priors that ensure approximate frequentist validity of posterior quantiles of unobservable random effects. Application to analysis of variance (ANOVA) models is explored.

On Expected Volumes of Multidimensional Confidence Sets Associated With the Usual and Adjusted Likelihoods

Summary We consider a general multiparameter set-up, where both the interest and the nuisance parameters are possibly vector valued. We derive an explicit higher order asymptotic formula to compare the expected volumes of confidence sets given by likelihood ratio statistics arising from the usual profile likelihood and various adjustments thereof. Our general framework also allows us to include highest posterior density regions, with approximate frequentist validity, in the study. The fact that our interest parameter is possibly vector valued complicates the derivation and warrants the development of special tools and techniques.

Second-order probability matching priors for a parametric function with application to Bayesian tolerance limits

Conditions are obtained for the approximate frequentist validity of the posterior quantiles of any smooth parametric function. An application to Bayesian tolerance limits is indicated.

Bayesian prediction with approximate frequentist validity

We characterize priors which asymptotically match the posterior coverage probability of a Bayesian prediction region with the corresponding frequentist coverage probability. This is done considering both posterior quantiles and highest predictive density regions with reference to a future observation. The resulting priors are shown to be invariant under reparameterization. The role of Jeffreys’ prior in this regard is also investigated. It is further shown that, for any given prior, it may be possible to choose an interval whose Bayesian predictive and frequentist coverage probabilities are asymptotically matched.

On Confidence Intervals Associated With the Usual and Adjusted Likelihoods

Summary In the presence of nuisance parameters, we drive an explicit higher order asymptotic formula to compare the expected lengths of confidence intervals given by likelihood ratio statistics arising from the usual profile likelihood and various adjustments thereof. Highest posterior density regions, with approximate frequentist validity, are also included in the study.

Probability matching priors: a review

In recent years, extensive work has been done concerning the derivation of noninformative prior distributions assuring approximate frequentist validity of Bayesian inferences. This paper provides a review of matching priors obtained via quantiles andvia the distribution function. Various matching criteria are described and discussed. Emphasis is laid on a proposal of designing priors matching the true coverage probability as well as the false coverage probabilities of contiguous alternatives with the respective Bayesian counterparts. The review is not primarily meant to be a comprehensive account on the area, but, rather, to convey the main underlying ideas and point out the relationships between matching priors and other noninformative priors, such as the Jeifreys’ and the reference priors.

Miscellanea. Second-order probability matching priors

SUMMARY The paper considers priors obtained by ensuring approximate frequentist validity of (a) posterior quantiles, and of (b) the posterior distribution function. It is seen that, at the second order of approximation, the two approaches do not necessarily lead to identical conclusions. Examples are given to illustrate this. The role of invariance in the context of probability matching is also discussed.

On Perturbed Ellipsoidal and Highest Posterior Density Regions with Approximate Frequentist Validity

SUMMARY This paper considers, in the multiparameter case, perturbed ellipsoidal and highest posterior density regions with both Bayesian and frequentist validity up to o(n −1).