Predictive Approach Research Articles

A novel Bayesian optimizable ensemble bagged trees model for cryptocurrency fraud prediction approach

A novel Bayesian optimizable ensemble bagged trees model for cryptocurrency fraud prediction approach

A Transformer Approach for Cognitive Impairment Classification and Prediction.

Early classification and prediction of Alzheimer disease (AD) and amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) with noninvasive approaches is a long-standing challenge. This challenge is further exacerbated by the sparsity of data needed for modeling. Deep learning methods offer a novel method to help address these challenging multiclass classification and prediction problems. We analyzed 3 target feature-sets from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) dataset: (1) neuropsychological (cognitive) data; (2) patient health history data; and (3) the combination of both sets. We used a masked Transformer-encoder without further feature selection to classify the samples on cognitive status (no cognitive impairment, aMCI, AD)-dynamically ignoring unavailable features. We then fine-tuned the model to predict the participants' future diagnosis in 1 to 3 years. We analyzed the sensitivity of the model to input features via Feature Permutation Importance. We demonstrated (1) the masked Transformer-encoder was able to perform prediction with sparse input data; (2) high multiclass current cognitive status classification accuracy (87% control, 79% aMCI, 89% AD); (3) acceptable results for 1- to 3-year multiclass future cognitive status prediction (83% control, 77% aMCI, 91% AD). The flexibility of our methods in handling inconsistent data provides a new venue for the analysis of cognitive status data.

Evaluation of a Simplified Modeling Approach for SEE Cross-Section Prediction: A Case Study of SEU on 6T SRAM Cells

Evaluation of a Simplified Modeling Approach for SEE Cross-Section Prediction: A Case Study of SEU on 6T SRAM Cells

A New Machine-Learning-Driven Grade-Point Average Prediction Approach for College Students Incorporating Psychological Evaluations in the Post-COVID-19 Era

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence in recent years, intelligent evaluation of college students’ growth by means of the monitoring data from training processes is becoming a promising technique in the field intelligent education. Current studies, however, tend to utilize course grades, which are objective, to predict students’ grade-point averages (GPAs), but usually neglect subjective factors like psychological resilience. To solve this problem, this paper takes mechanical engineering as the research object, and proposes a new machine-learning-driven GPA prediction approach to evaluate the academic performance of engineering students by incorporating psychological evaluation data into basic course scores. Specifically, this paper adopts SCL-90 psychological assessment data collected in the freshman year, including key mental health indicators such as somatization, depression, hostility, and interpersonal sensitivity indicators, as well as professional basic course scores, including mechanical principles, mechanical design, advanced mathematics, and engineering drawing. Four representative machine learning algorithms, Support Vector Machine (SVM), CNN-CBAM, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Classification and Regression Tree (CART) that include deep and shallow models, respectively, are then employed to build a classification model for GPA prediction. This paper designs a validation experiment by tracking 229 students from the 2020 class from the School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering of Henan University of Science and Technology, China. The students’ academic performance in senior grades is divided into five classes to use as the prediction labels. It is verified that psychological data and course data can be effectively integrated into GPA prediction for college students, with an accuracy rate of 83.64%. Meanwhile, this paper also reveals that anxiety indicators in the psychological assessment data have the greatest impact on college students’ academic performance, followed by interpersonal sensitivity. The experimental results also show that, for predicting junior year GPAs, psychological factors play more important role than they do in predicting sophomore GPAs. Suggestions are therefore given: the current practice in existing undergraduate teaching, i.e., only conducting psychological assessments in the initial freshman year, should be updated by introducing follow-up psychological assessments in each academic year.

Mapping the Intersubunit Interdomain FMN-Heme Interactions in Neuronal Nitric Oxide Synthase by Targeted Quantitative Cross-Linking Mass Spectrometry.

Nitric oxide synthase (NOS) in mammals is a family of multidomain proteins in which interdomain electron transfer (IET) is controlled by domain-domain interactions. Calmodulin (CaM) binds to the canonical CaM-binding site in the linker region between the FMN and heme domains of NOS and allows tethered FMN domain motions, enabling an intersubunit FMN-heme IET in the output state for NO production. Our previous cross-linking mass spectrometric (XL MS) results demonstrated site-specific protein dynamics in the CaM-responsive regions of rat neuronal NOS (nNOS) reductase construct, a monomeric protein [Jiang et al., Biochemistry, 2023, 62, 2232-2237]. In this work, we have extended our combined approach of XL MS structural mapping and AlphaFold structural prediction to examine the homodimeric nNOS oxygenase/FMN (oxyFMN) construct, an established model of the NOS output state. We employed parallel reaction monitoring (PRM) based quantitative XL MS (qXL MS) to assess the CaM-induced changes in interdomain dynamics and interactions. Intersubunit cross-links were identified by mapping the cross-links onto top AlphaFold structural models, which was complemented by comparing their relative abundances in the cross-linked dimeric and monomeric bands. Furthermore, contrasting the CaM-free and CaM-bound nNOS samples shows that CaM enables the formation of the intersubunit FMN-heme docking complex and that CaM binding induces extensive, allosteric conformational changes across the NOS regions. Moreover, the observed cross-links sites specifically respond to changes in ionic strength. This indicates that interdomain salt bridges are responsible for stabilizing and orienting the output state for efficient FMN-heme IET. Taken together, our targeted qXL MS results have revealed that CaM and ionic strength modulate specific dynamic changes in the CaM/FMN/heme complexes, particularly in the context of intersubunit interdomain FMN-heme interactions.

Expressway Vehicle Trajectory Prediction Based on Fusion Data of Trajectories and Maps from Vehicle Perspective

Research on vehicle trajectory prediction based on road monitoring video data often utilizes a global map as an input, disregarding the fact that drivers rely on the road structures observable from their own positions for path planning. This oversight reduces the accuracy of prediction. To address this, we propose the CVAE-VGAE model, a novel trajectory prediction approach. Initially, our method transforms global perspective map data into vehicle-centric map data, representing it through a graph structure. Subsequently, Variational Graph Auto-Encoders (VGAEs), an unsupervised learning framework tailored for graph-structured data, are employed to extract road environment features specific to each vehicle’s location from the map data. Finally, a prediction network based on the Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) structure is designed, which first predicts the driving endpoint and then fits the complete future trajectory. The proposed CVAE-VGAE model integrates a self-attention mechanism into its encoding and decoding modules to infer endpoint intent and incorporate road environment features for precise trajectory prediction. Through a series of ablation experiments, we demonstrate the efficacy of our method in enhancing vehicle trajectory prediction metrics. Furthermore, we compare our model with traditional and frontier approaches, highlighting significant improvements in prediction accuracy.

A deep learning approach for prediction of air quality index in smart city

Industrial developments and consumption of massive amount of fossil fuels, vehicle pollution, and other calamities upsurges the AQI (Air Quality Index) of major cities in a drastic manner. Owing to these factors, it is important to take proactive measures for reducing the air pollution in order to avoid life- threatening consequence. Therefore, prediction of air quality is significant for improving the health of living beings as highly polluted regions have a higher concentration of pollutants mixed in the air, affecting the respiratory system and reducing the lifetime. To control pollution, AQI is used as a measure for estimating the pollutant content in the air. Even though many existing techniques have predicted AQI, enhancement is required in prediction algorithms with minimized loss. To address the challenges in traditional algorithms, the proposed smart cities-based AQI prediction intends to utilize the proposed regression algorithm in the dataset, namely Air- Quality-Data, which collected harmful pollutants on an hourly and daily basis from multiple cities in India between 2015 to 2020. To achieve prediction efficiency with reduced loss, pre-processing of input data is being performed using Deep GAN (Generative Adversarial Network). It performs the imputation of data in place of missing values to improve accurate prediction. Additionally, feature scaling normalizes independent real-data features to a fixed scale. With the processed data, regression is done through modified Stacked Attention GRU with KL divergence, which predicts Ernakulam, Chennai and Ahmedabad cities with higher, medium, and low levels of AQI in India. The performance of the proposed regression algorithm is measured using metrics such as MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MSE (Mean Square Error), R2 (Coefficient of determination), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and better MAE, MSE, R2, MAPE and RMSE obtained by the model is 0.1013, 0.0134, 0.9479, 0.1152 and 0.1156. Internal assessment and comparative analysis performed with existing regression algorithms exhibit lower loss values obtained from the present research, which determines the efficacy of the proposed model.

AI-based predictive approach via FFB propagation in a driven-cavity of Ostwald de-Waele fluid using CFD-ANN and Levenberg–Marquardt

The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques into computational science has ushered in a new era of innovation and efficiency in various fields, with particular significance in computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Several methods based on AI and Machine Learning (ML) have been standardized in many fields of computational science, including computational fluid dynamics (CFD). This study aims to couple CFD with artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the fluid forces that arise when a flowing fluid interacts with obstacles installed in the flow domain. The momentum equation elucidating the flow has been simulated by adopting the finite element method (FEM) for a range of rheological and kinematic conditions. Hydrodynamic forces, including pressure drop between the back and front of the obstacle, surface drag, and lift variations, are measured on the outer surface of the cylinder via CFD simulations. This data has subsequently been fed into a Feed-Forward Back (FFB) propagation neural network for the prediction of such forces with completely unknown data. For all cases, higher predictivity is achieved for the drag coefficient (CD) and lift coefficient (CL) since the mean square error (MSE) is within ± 2% and the coefficient of determination (R) is approximately 99% for all the cases. The influence of pertinent parameters like the power law index (n) and Reynolds number (Re) on velocity, pressure, and drag and lift coefficients is also presented for limited cases. Moreover, a significant reduction in computing time has been noticed while applying hybrid CFD-ANN approach as compared with CFD simulations only.

The RDF2vec family of knowledge graph embedding methods

Knowledge graph embeddings represent a group of machine learning techniques which project entities and relations of a knowledge graph to continuous vector spaces. RDF2vec is a scalable embedding approach rooted in the combination of random walks with a language model. It has been successfully used in various applications. Recently, multiple variants to the RDF2vec approach have been proposed, introducing variations both on the walk generation and on the language modeling side. The combination of those different approaches has lead to an increasing family of RDF2vec variants. In this paper, we evaluate a total of twelve RDF2vec variants on a comprehensive set of benchmark models, and compare them to seven existing knowledge graph embedding methods from the family of link prediction approaches. Besides the established GEval benchmark introducing various downstream machine learning tasks on the DBpedia knowledge graph, we also use the new DLCC (Description Logic Class Constructors) benchmark consisting of two gold standards, one based on DBpedia, and one based on synthetically generated graphs. The latter allows for analyzing which ontological patterns in a knowledge graph can actually be learned by different embedding. With this evaluation, we observe that certain tailored RDF2vec variants can lead to improved performance on different downstream tasks, given the nature of the underlying problem, and that they, in particular, have a different behavior in modeling similarity and relatedness. The findings can be used to provide guidance in selecting a particular RDF2vec method for a given task.

Organoids, Biocybersecurity, and Cyberbiosecurity—A Light Exploration

Organoids present immense promise for studying organ systems and their functionality. Recently, they have become the subject of exploration outside of purely biomedical uses in multiple directions. We will explore the rapidly evolving landscape of organoid research over the 21st century, discussing significant advancements in organoid research and highlighting breakthroughs, methodologies, and their transformative impact on our understanding of physiology and modeling. In addition, we will explore their potential use for biocomputing and harnessing organoid intelligence, investigate how these miniaturized organ-like structures promise to create novel computational models and processing platforms allowing for innovative approaches in drug discovery, personalized medicine, and disease prediction. Lastly, we will address the ethical dilemmas surrounding organoid research by dissecting the intricate ethical considerations related to the creation, use, and potential implications of these in vitro models. Through this work, the goal of this paper is to provide introductory perspectives and bridges that will connect organoids to cybersecurity applications and the imperative ethical discourse accompanying its advancements with commentary on future uses.

Do traffic flow states follow Markov properties? A high-order spatiotemporal traffic state reconstruction approach for traffic prediction and imputation

Assessing traffic states accurately is challenging due to the complex, high-dimensional, and nonlinear nature of traffic systems. This study introduces the innovative High-Order Spatiotemporal Traffic State Reconstruction (HOSTSR) algorithm, designed to track and predict traffic flow dynamics effectively. It combines phase space reconstruction with time delays and high-order neighborhood concepts from graph theory to improve traffic state assessments' accuracy. The algorithm's effectiveness is validated using chi-square tests and the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation to confirm the Markovian properties of traffic flows. A lean autoencoder, informed by prior Markov knowledge of traffic states, is developed for mapping traffic states to real traffic data, proving highly effective for traffic data imputation due to the Markov model's memoryless property. Experimental results from the PeMSD04 and PeMSD08 datasets show that HOSTSR outperforms traditional state reconstruction methods based on delayed coordinate embedding in predicting future traffic flow state based on four key metrics. The autoencoder framework, guided by prior Markov knowledge, shows significant advantages in addressing traffic data gaps in different cases over six baseline models. Gradient sensitivity analysis further evaluates the impact of prior knowledge on improving the autoencoder's interpretability for interpolation efforts.

Climate model selection via conformal clustering of spatial functional data

AbstractClimate model selection stands as a critical process in climate science and research. It involves choosing the most appropriate climate models to address specific research questions, simulating climate behaviour, or making projections about future climate conditions. This paper proposes a new approach, using spatial functional data analysis, to asses which of the 18 EURO CORDEX simulation models work better for predicting average temperatures in the Campania region (Italy). The method involves two key steps: first, using functional data analysis to process climate variables and select optimal models by a hierarchical clustering procedure; second, validating the chosen models by proposing a new conformal prediction approach to the anomalies associated to each cluster.

Explainable machine learning approach for cancer prediction through binarilization of RNA sequencing data.

In recent years, researchers have proven the effectiveness and speediness of machine learning-based cancer diagnosis models. However, it is difficult to explain the results generated by machine learning models, especially ones that utilized complex high-dimensional data like RNA sequencing data. In this study, we propose the binarilization technique as a novel way to treat RNA sequencing data and used it to construct explainable cancer prediction models. We tested our proposed data processing technique on five different models, namely neural network, random forest, xgboost, support vector machine, and decision tree, using four cancer datasets collected from the National Cancer Institute Genomic Data Commons. Since our datasets are imbalanced, we evaluated the performance of all models using metrics designed for imbalance performance like geometric mean, Matthews correlation coefficient, F-Measure, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Our approach showed comparative performance while relying on less features. Additionally, we demonstrated that data binarilization offers higher explainability by revealing how each feature affects the prediction. These results demonstrate the potential of data binarilization technique in improving the performance and explainability of RNA sequencing based cancer prediction models.

An efficient CNN-transformer hybrid approach for water turbine unit failure prediction

Water Turbine Unit is the core equipment of water power generation. It is the most important research object in hydroelectric power. The analysis of daily monitoring data of Water Turbines can evaluate its running state and avoid the loss caused by failure. In this paper, A hybrid neural network architecture which CNN combines Transformer is proposed to evaluate the health state of water turbines based on multivariate long time series data. It has two core components: (i) dilated convolution applies to capture low-level and local semantic information, then the output of convolutional layers is divided into subseries-level patches by time, these patches are regarded as input tokens of Transformer layers; (ii) utilizing self-attention of Transformer to extract high-level and global semantic information. Patching design naturally has benefit as follow: (i) local semantic information is retained in Transformer input tokens and high-level semantic confirm to common sense of human understanding through low-level construction; (ii) the length of Transformer input sequence is greatly shorted and attention can be more concentrated compared with point-wise form. Meanwhile, the computation and memory usage reduces at the same time. The experimental result indicates that the hybrid architecture can achieves excellent performance in time series understanding.

Mapping surface sediment characteristics in enclosed shallow‐marine environments using spatially balanced designs and the random forest algorithm

AbstractMapping the sedimentary character of the seafloor in large water‐filled basins is fundamental for understanding landform dynamics to inform research, management, intervention and conservation actions. Seabed mapping methods have undergone considerable development in the last two decades, including the uptake of machine learning approaches for sediment size prediction and classification. However, predictions of surficial sediment characteristics are often hindered by the availability of ground truthing data, their arrangement in space and the modelling approach chosen. Spatially informed sampling designs provide an opportunity to significantly improve the accuracy and uncertainty of predicted sediment distributions. In this study, we apply a machine learning algorithm to predict sediment distributions across Port Phillip Bay, a large (1930 km2) structurally controlled estuary on the southeast coast of Victoria, Australia. Surface sediment samples (n = 252) were collected using a spatially balanced design, ensuring that sampling effort was spread evenly within the embayment with increased sampling intensity placed in more heterogeneous areas. Surficial textural metrics were modelled using the random forest algorithm with bathymetric and hydrodynamic predictor variables. Models highlighted trends in sediment grain size, sorting and composition consistent with predicted wave‐ and current‐induced sediment mobilisation. Model predictions were accurate (normalised‐root mean squared error [NRMSE]: 0.14–0.16); however, standard error was not homogeneous across the study area. Uncertainty maps highlighted areas where additional sampling effort may be needed, including areas where transitional bathymetry impacted surficial sediment character and areas of anthropogenic modifications to the seabed. This study shows the benefits of undertaking spatially informed sample design, block cross‐validation during model fitting and quantifying spatial uncertainty in predictive maps to accurately quantify the fundamental boundary conditions of sediment size. The results of this study are intended to inform local coastal management, including beach renourishment activities. However, approaches outlined are applicable to any study where the seafloor grain size is a fundamental variable in understanding landscape change.

Twin-RSA: deep learning-based automated heterogeneous data fusion approach for patient progression prediction using EHR data

Twin-RSA: deep learning-based automated heterogeneous data fusion approach for patient progression prediction using EHR data

Predicting the Spread of a Pandemic Using Machine Learning: A Case Study of COVID-19 in the UAE

Pandemics can result in large morbidity and mortality rates that can cause significant adverse effects on the social and economic situations of communities. Monitoring and predicting the spread of pandemics helps the concerned authorities manage the required resources, formulate preventive measures, and control the spread effectively. In the specific case of COVID-19, the UAE (United Arab Emirates) has undertaken many initiatives, such as surveillance and contact tracing by introducing mobile apps such as Al Hosn, containment of spread by limiting the gathering of people, online schooling and remote work, sanitation drives, and closure of public places. The aim of this paper is to predict the trends occurring in pandemic outbreak, with COVID-19 in the UAE being a specific case study to investigate. In this paper, a predictive modeling approach is proposed to predict the future number of cases based on the recorded history, taking into consideration the enforced policies and provided vaccinations. Machine learning models such as LASSO Regression and Exponential Smoothing, and deep learning models such as LSTM, LSTM-AE, and bi-directional LSTM-AE, are utilized. The dataset used is publicly available from the UAE government, Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (FCSC) and consists of several attributes, such as the numbers of confirmed cases, recovered cases, deaths, tests, and vaccinations. An additional categorical attribute is manually added to the dataset describing whether an event has taken place, such as a national holiday or a sanitization drive, to study the effect of such events on the pandemic trends. Experimental results showed that the Univariate LSTM model with an input of a five-day history of Confirmed Cases achieved the best performance with an RMSE of 275.85, surpassing the current state of the art related to the UAE by over 30%. It was also found that the bi-directional LSTMs performed relatively well. The approach proposed in the paper can be applied to monitor similar infectious disease outbreaks and thus contribute to strengthening the authorities’ preparedness for future pandemics.

Estimating kill intervals for a specific prey species using location clusters from GPS-collared Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx)

An increasing number of GPS telemetry studies have helped to gain important insights into predator-prey relationships in recent years. However, considerable time and effort is needed to evaluate whether GPS location clusters (GLCs) reflect predation events. To reduce field effort, predictive models are being developed to calculate predator kill intervals, but few studies have attempted to do this for a specific species of prey. Between 2013 and 2018, we studied predation by 13 GPS-collared Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) on Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra) in the northwestern Swiss Alps. Our objectives were to predict the total number of killed chamois, including potential kills in unchecked GLCs, and to evaluate if model predictions were sufficiently accurate. We built a set of generalized linear models (GLM) predicting the occurrence of GLCs containing lynx-killed chamois (1) versus GLCs containing other prey types or no prey (0) and compared their predictive performance by means of k-fold cross-validation. We found that model performance was very similar for all candidate models, with the full model yielding the best cross-validation result (accuracy = 0.83, sensitivity = 0.43, specificity = 0.94). Female lynx killed on average one chamois every 11.9 days (10.6–13.0 days, 95% CI); male lynx killed one chamois every 7.2 days (6.7–7.6 days, 95% CI). Our model showed high specificity for detecting non-chamois GLCs, but sensitivity for detection of GLCs with actual chamois kills was low. We conclude that the sensitivity of the models should be further improved, but the results can be sufficient for practical application. Predictive modelling approaches do not replace extensive fieldwork but require large sets of field data, high individual variability and thorough knowledge of a predator’s ecology and prey community. Our approach may provide useful results for binary classifications in rather simple predator-prey systems, but extrapolations from one study system to another might be difficult.

Artificial neural network-based approach for prediction of nanomechanical properties of anodic coating on additively manufactured Al–10Si–Mg alloy

Nowadays, anodic coating on additively manufactured (AM) or 3D printed Al–10Si–Mg alloy are used for various components in spacecraft such as antenna feeds, wave guides, structural brackets, collimators, thermal radiators etc. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) and power law-based models are developed from experimental nanoindentation data for predicting elastic modulus and hardness of anodized AM Al–10Si–Mg at any desired loads. Data from nanoindentation experiments conducted on plan- and cross-sections of anodized coating on AM Al–10Si–Mg alloy was considered for modeling. Apart from nanomechanical properties, load and displacement curves were predicted using Python software from ANN and the Power law model of nanoindentation. It is observed that the ANN model of 50 mN nanoindentation experimental data can accurately predict the loading pattern at any desired load below 50 mN. Elastic modulus and hardness of anodized AM Al–10Si–Mg computed from ANN and the power law model of the unloading curve are also comparable with the values obtained from Weibull distribution analysis reported elsewhere. The derived models were also used to predict nanomechanical properties at 25 and 35 mN, for which no experimental data was available. The computed hardness of plan section of the anodic coating is 3.99 and 4.02 GPa for 25 and 35 mN, respectively. The computed hardness of cross-section of the anodic coating of is 7.16 and 6.61 GPa for 25 and 35 mN, respectively. Thus, the ANN and Power law model of nanoindentation can predict elastic modulus and hardness at different loads by conducting the minimum number of experiments. The novel approach to predict nanomechanical properties using ANN resulted in determining realistic and design specific data on hardness and modulus of the anodized coating on AM Al–10Si–Mg alloy.

A novel approach of stability and topography prediction in five-axis ball-end milling process through workpiece-edge-coupling

By studying the workpiece-edge-coupling (WEC) in five-axis ball-end milling, the contact characteristics between the workpiece and edge curve are analyzed, and the chip model is extracted and simplified. The edge curve involved in the cutting process of each edge are calculated at each time and a new instantaneous numerical chip thickness model is established. Then the milling forces and stability lobe diagram (SLD) are calculated in following cut process with lead and tilt angle. The milling forces and SLD of lead angle at 15° and tilt angle at −15° are verified by comparing with Otzurk model as references, and it is found the SLD of WEC model can reflect the unstable points more properly than that of Otzurk model. Also the vibration in [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] directions show a divergence trend, which proves the high precision for the new algorithm adapted to the stability prediction of five-axis ball-end milling process. In addition, the surface topography is acquired considering lead and tilt angle as well as forced vibration, and the result is consistent with the experiment in the existing literature. It is found that the milling forces, SLD and surface topography show the same variation trend with the increase of lead and tilt angle. Besides, the stability region significantly expands and the surface topography improves by applying positive tilt angle other than the negative. Then, under the conditions of positive lead and tilt angle, increasing lead angle and decreasing tilt angle reduces the milling force, expands the stability region of SLD and improve the surface topography. The optimized tool posture is acquired by the coincident analysis of milling force, SLD and surface topography under different lead and tilt angle.