Risk Evaluation Approach Research Articles

An integrated fuzzy MCDM approach for risk evaluation of new product in a pipe industry

An integrated fuzzy MCDM approach for risk evaluation of new product in a pipe industry

The importance of a correct methodological approach for the arrhythmic risk evaluation in beta thalassemia major patients

The importance of a correct methodological approach for the arrhythmic risk evaluation in beta thalassemia major patients

Enhancing the Enrichment of Pharmacophore-Based Target Prediction for the Polypharmacological Profiles of Drugs.

PharmMapper is a web server for drug target identification by reversed pharmacophore matching the query compound against an annotated pharmacophore model database, which provides a computational polypharmacology prediction approach for drug repurposing and side effect risk evaluation. But due to the inherent nondiscriminative feature of the simple fit scores used for prediction results ranking, the signal/noise ratio of the prediction results is high, posing a challenge for predictive reliability. In this paper, we improved the predictive accuracy of PharmMapper by generating a ligand-target pairwise fit score matrix from profiling all the annotated pharmacophore models against corresponding ligands in the original complex structures that were used to extract these pharmacophore models. The matrix reflects the noise baseline of fit score distribution of the background database, thus enabling estimation of the probability of finding a given target randomly with the calculated ligand-pharmacophore fit score. Two retrospective tests were performed which confirmed that the probability-based ranking score outperformed the simple fit score in terms of identification of both known drug targets and adverse drug reaction related off-targets.

Risk-Based Power System Security Analysis Considering Cascading Outages

Successful development of smart grid demands strengthened system security and reliability, which requires effective security analysis in conducting system operation and expansion planning. Classical ${{N}} - 1$ criterion has been widely used to examine every creditable contingency through detailed computations in the past. The adequacy of such approach becomes doubtful in many recent blackouts where cascading outages are usually involved. This may be attributed to the increased complexities and nonlinearities involved in operating conditions and network structures in context of smart grid development. To address security threats, particularly from cascading outages, a new and efficient security analysis approach is proposed, which comprises cascading failure simulation module (CFSM) for postcontingency analysis and risk evaluation module (REM) based on a decorrelated neural network ensembles (DNNE) algorithm. This approach overcomes the drawbacks of high computational cost in classical $N\!\!-\!\!k$ -induced cascading contingency analysis. Case studies on two different IEEE test systems and a practical transmission system—Polish 2383-bus system have been conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for risk evaluation of cascading contingency.

Comparative approach for trace metal risk evaluation in settling particles from the Uruguay River, Argentina: enrichment factors, sediment quality guidelines and metal speciation

The source and potential risks of trace metals in settling material collected with sediment traps in the Uruguay River were evaluated utilizing enrichment factors (EF), sediment quality guidelines (SQG) and speciation using a 4-step sequential extraction procedure. The total organic carbon content of the settling material was relatively high and homogeneous (2.5 ± 0.3 %) and showed no correlation with the metal concentrations. Total trace metal concentrations decrease from Fe (48,969 ± 7380 µg g−1), Mn (1859 ± 233 µg g−1), Zn (84 ± 7.6 µg g−1), Cu (56 ± 6.9 µg g−1), Cr (19 ± 2.7 µg g−1), Ni (16 ± 2.0 µg g−1) and Pb (13 ± 1.2 µg g−1). The average EF of Zn, Cr, Ni and Pb are below 1.5 indicating natural sources, whereas those of Cu and Mn are consistently higher (EF > 2) insinuating some anthropogenic influence. Consistently, Cu concentrations duplicated the SQG (35.7 μg g−1) suggesting that adverse biological effects may be observed occasionally. However, speciation results revealed that most metals are associated with the residual fraction, strongly linked to the mineral matrix, and therefore unavailable to aquatic organisms. The sole exception is Mn which is mainly found in the non-residual fractions (∑F1 − F3 = 82 %). Trace metal mobility/bioavailability decreased from Mn (82 %) ≫ Pb (37 %) > Cr (26 %) ~ Ni (25 %) > Zn (20 %) > Cu (14 %) > Fe (10 %). These results demonstrate the utility of metal speciation studies to assess the real risk for aquatic organisms of high Cu concentrations, but associated to relatively immobile fractions of reduced bioavailability.

A risk evaluation approach for authorization decisions in social pervasive applications

Most research in social networks has focused on the assumption that unknown entities are malicious and thus the traditional approach was to detect them and deny their access to sensitive data. In this paper, we propose a new computational model that helps users predict security risks associated with their information sharing on social networks. The model is based on the assumption that a risk indicator value can be predicted by assessing a number of risk attributes using a neuro-fuzzy technique. A disclosure decision is made based on this risk indicator value. The approach was tested in a real prototype of a social mobile service at a university campus. Further, we show how the model can be implemented in a popular social rating site. Results obtained show the relevance and effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting risks and in deciding up on it about disclosure decisions in social pervasive applications.

A modelling framework for predicting the optimal balance between control and surveillance effort in the local eradication of tuberculosis in New Zealand wildlife

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) impacts livestock farming in New Zealand, where the introduced marsupial brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) is the wildlife maintenance host for Mycobacterium bovis. New Zealand has implemented a campaign to control TB using a co-ordinated programme of livestock diagnostic testing and large-scale culling of possums, with the long-term aim of TB eradication. For management of the disease in wildlife, methods that can optimise the balance between control and surveillance effort will facilitate the objective of eradication on a fixed or limited budget. We modelled and compared management options to optimise the balance between the two activities necessary to achieve and verify eradication of TB from New Zealand wildlife: the number of lethal population control operations required to halt the M. bovis infection cycle in possums, and the subsequent surveillance effort needed to confidently declare TB freedom post-control. The approach considered the costs of control and surveillance, as well as the potential costs of re-control resulting from false declaration of TB freedom. The required years of surveillance decreased with increasing numbers of possum lethal control operations but the overall time to declare TB freedom depended on additional factors, such as the probability of freedom from disease after control and the probability of success of mop-up control, i.e. retroactive culling following detection of persistent disease in the residual possum population. The total expected cost was also dependent on a number of factors, many of which had wide cost ranges, suggesting that an optimal strategy is unlikely to be singular and fixed, but will likely vary for each different area being considered. Our approach provides a simple framework that considers the known and potential costs of possum control and TB surveillance, enabling managers to optimise the balance between these two activities to achieve and prove eradication of a wildlife disease, or the pest species that transmits it, in the most expedient and economic way. This cost- and risk-evaluation approach may be applicable to other wildlife disease problems where limited management funds exist.

A fuzzy DEMATEL-based approach for evaluation of risks in green initiatives in supply chain

The implementation of green/green supply chain (GSC) initiatives is relatively difficult for the point of view of industries due to involvement of different risks. Decision evaluation and assessment of these risks can help industries to formulate strategies and suggest appropriate measures for managing the GSC effectively. For this motive, this paper recognises the eight evaluation GSC risks with two main dimensions based on relevant literature and ten industrial experts' inputs at an Indian plastic manufacturer. The current research proposes to use a fuzzy decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) methodology for analysing the causal relations among the risks. The used fuzzy DEMATEL approach is useful in dealing with human bias and ambiguity involved in studying the interrelationship between the evaluated risks. Research findings indicate that operational risks and supply risks have the top significant influences in adopting and implementing effective GSC initiatives in business. Implications for managers and conclusions are discussed in the end.

Risk assessment of slope failure by representative slip surfaces and response surface function

This paper develops a quantitative approach for risk evaluation of slope failure based on a finite number of Representative Slip Surfaces (RSS) with Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM). A second order polynomial response surface function (RSF) is calibrated for each RSS in order to improve the computational efficiency. The volume of sliding mass associated with each RSS is a measure of consequence of slope failure along this RSS. The risk of slope failure is evaluated by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and the contribution of each RSS to risk of slope failure is quantified. Thus, the risk of slope failure is de-aggregated into each RSS. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a three-layer cohesive soil slope. The de-aggregations of probability of slope failure, pf, and risk of slope failure, R, are conducted at different scale of fluctuations, and the results for de-aggregation of pf are compared with those for de-aggregation of R. The comparison indicates that the group of key RSS that dominate pf differ considerably from those that dominate R. These different groups of key RSS may lead to different strategies in the subsequent risk mitigation, if any. The proposed approach provides an efficient and quantitative tool for identifying the key group of RSS in the planning of slope risk mitigation.

An economic risk evaluation approach for pit slope optimization

Synopsis In open pit mine design, it is customary for geotechnical engineers to define the appropriate slope design angles within practical limits. The conventional approach to slope angle design is based on the comparison of calculated stability indicators, such as the factor of safety (FS) and the probability of failure (PF), with generic acceptability criteria not directly related to the impacts of failure. A major drawback of this type of approach is related to the difficulty of defining meaningful acceptability criteria. An alternative methodology of pit slope design is proposed, where the economic impacts of potential slope failures are calculated and used as the elements on which to apply the acceptability criteria for design. The methodology is based on the construction of a graph, referred to as a risk map, that relates the probability of exceeding the economic impact of slope failure to the magnitude of the impact measured in monetary terms. The process includes the analysis of a selected number of representative years of the mine plan and slope sections of the pit areas to define the required inputs for the construction of the risk map. The paper discusses the concepts used in interpreting the probability of slope failure, and describes the approach followed for the estimation of the economic impacts of slope failure and the construction of the risk map. Finally, the two main uses of the risk map are discussed, including the comparison with acceptability criteria for the evaluation of a specific open pit design and the comparative analysis of open pit design options in terms of value and risk to identify optimum pit layouts.

Application of the IEC80001 standard towards integration of a real time alarm communication and management system

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report on use of the IEC80001 standard, Application of Risk Management for Information Technolody (IT) Networks Incorporating Medical Devices, to deploy a wireless alarm management solution in a long-term care home facility. Design/methodology/approach – The standard suggests the use of a unique responsibility matrix and a continuous quality improvement approach for analysis, evaluation and control of risks. A unique leadership committee and workgroup were formed to develop processes and procedures for integrating medical devices with IT systems; as well as execution of the project itself. The leadership committee oversaw the phased approach of assessing the technology, the clinical environment, proponent technology-based solutions and a specified risk management file. The project expanded its scope beyond the standard to include a risk focussed analysis of clinical workflow to evaluate the usability of the solution. Findings – The standard focussed approach identified numerous risks associated with the technical and network solution and the future state workflow. Medical devices proved to be the most limiting technology needing to be incorporated into the solution. Although faced with a daunting list of network related risks, it was concluded that all residual risks would have been acceptable. The analysis of the future state workflow identified various risks related to usability (human factors), battery management and the absence of additional operating dollars for supplementary staffing duties and new operational expenses. Originality/value – To the best of the authors knowledge, this paper is the first one to detail the process of following the IEC80001 standard in Canada. It offers insight into building an organizational framework around the standard and identifies gaps that should be considered by executive and project sponsors before proceeding with a project.

Selection of Support Vector Machines based classifiers for credit risk domain

This paper describes an approach for credit risk evaluation based on linear Support Vector Machines classifiers, combined with external evaluation and sliding window testing, with focus on application on larger datasets. It presents a technique for optimal linear SVM classifier selection based on particle swarm optimization technique, providing significant amount of focus on imbalanced learning issue. It is compared to other classifiers in terms of accuracy and identification of each class. Experimental classification performance results, obtained using real world financial dataset from SEC EDGAR database, lead to conclusion that proposed technique is capable to produce results, comparable to other classifiers, such as logistic regression and RBF network, and thus be can be an appealing option for future development of real credit risk evaluation models.

A Scenario-Based Information Security Risk Evaluation Method

Risk evaluation is the core process of information security risk management. An effective risk evaluation can protect organizations and maintain their abilities to carry out missions and activities against threats as well as helping to implement controls and safeguards that are actually needed. While the traditional information security risk evaluation approaches are lack of granular analysis and clear expression of security characteristics of risk, such as the possibility, attack path, and business impact. This paper presents the scenario-based information security risk evaluation method, based on the thought of Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) attack, by constructing risk scenario, evaluate information system security risk status. The separation analysis of the technical impact and business impact contribute to the technicians and business decision makers to grasp system risk status from their respective responsibilities. In the end of the paper, we propose a practical risk scenario construction example, which provides scientific and effective guidance for the preparation of a risk evaluation report.

Risk Evaluation Approach in Failure Mode and Effect Analysis of Automotive Headlamp Assembly

Headlamp assembly entailed a complex assembly process and error in assembled can result in technical problem and higher reject rate at the end of the assembly process. A study has been conducted, in one of the automotive headlamp assembly in Malaysia, where there are numerous defect detected during the assembly process, such as metal spacing missing, wrong model housing, wrong sticker affix, wrong orientation with a total of 80% defects detected. Currently the headlamps are assembled with no dimensional control, results in high physical nonconformity product. The main objective of this project is to identify potential failure in headlamp assembly process. The approach used was risk assessment tool which is Process Failure Mode and Effect. This work also developed the corrective action plan for accurate ranking of Failure Modes by Risk Priority Number-based method and implement it to the process assembly. The result showed that there was increased of 5% in preventive action and 4% increment of the detection action

A new risk evaluation method for oil storage tank zones based on the theory of two types of hazards

Oil storage tank zones possessing large amounts of harmful substances and energy with great probability of accidental release, can pose risks to personnel, equipment facilities and environment. With risks becoming more complex and diverse, risk evaluation approaches are required to quickly identify hazards, effectively assess safety performances. This paper presents a new risk evaluation model for oil storage tank zones based on the theory of two types of hazards. Firstly, the two types of hazards (inherent hazards, controllable hazards) in oil tank zones are identified, analyzed and classified. Secondly, inherent hazards of oil storage tank zones are quantitatively evaluated by the major hazards method (flammable, explosive and toxic), which conducted on the possibility and severity of accidents. Thirdly, (i) using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), the risk factors that can lead to the emergence of controllable hazards are identified. These risk factors are screened by structural importance degree to next analysis step as the evaluation factors. (ii) The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied to determine the weight of each index. (iii) After the construction of the multi-factor fuzzy evaluation matrix, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mode for controllable hazards is established. Finally, the comprehensive risk rank of oil storage tank zones, constituted by the coupling effect of inherent hazards and controllable hazards, is assessed by the developed risk matrix, which provides related standards for risk classification. The proposed method is validated to be more practicality and orderliness by the example.

Risk Evaluation Approach and Application Research on Fuzzy-FMECA Method Based on Cloud Model

In order to safeguard the safety of passengers and reducemaintenance costs, it is necessary to analyze and evaluate the security risk ofthe Railway Signal System. However, the conventional Fuzzy Analytical HierarchyProcess (FAHP) can not describe the fuzziness and randomness of the judgment,accurately, and once the fuzzy sets are described using subjection degreefunction, the concept of fuzziness will be no longer fuzzy. Thus Fuzzy-FMECAmethod based on cloud model is put forward. Failure Modes Effects andCriticality Analysis (FMECA) method is used to identify the risk and FAHP basedon cloud model is used for determining the subjection degree function in fuzzymethod, finally the group decision can be gained with the syntheticallyaggregated cloud model, the method’s feasibility and effectiveness are shown inthe practical examples. Finally Fuzzy-FMECA based on cloud model and theconventional FAHP are used to assess the risk respectively, evaluation resultsshow that the cloud model which is introduced into the risk assessment ofRailway Signal System can realize the transition between precise value andquality value by combining the fuzziness and randomness and provide moreabundant information than subjection degree function of the conventional FAHP. DOI : http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/telkomnika.v12i2.3886

Erratum to: A new approach for the geological risk evaluation of coal resources through a geostatistical simulation

Erratum to: A new approach for the geological risk evaluation of coal resources through a geostatistical simulation

Relationship between myocardial T2* values and cardiac volumetric and functional parameters in β-thalassemia patients evaluated by cardiac magnetic resonance in association with serum ferritin levels

PurposeMyocardial T2* cardiovascular magnetic resonance provides a rapid and reproducible assessment of cardiac iron load in thalassemia patients. Although cardiac involvement is mainly characterized by left ventricular dysfunction caused by iron overload, little is known about right ventricular function. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between T2* value in myocardium and left–right ventricular volumetric and functional parameters and to evaluate the existing associations between left–right ventricles volumetric and functional parameter, myocardial T2* values and blood ferritin levels. Materials and methodsA retrospective analysis of 208 patients with β-thalassemia major and thalassemia intermedia was performed (109 males and 99 females; mean age 37.7±13 years; 143 thalassemia major, 65 thalassemia intermedia). Myocardial iron load was assessed by T2* measurements, and volumetric functions were analyzed using the steady state free precession sequence. ResultsA significant correlation was observed between EFLV and T2* (p=0.0001), EFRV and T2* (p=0.0279). An inverse correlation was present between DVLV and T2* (p=0.0468), SVLV and T2* (p=0.0003), SVRV and T2* (p=0.0001). There was no significant correlation between cardiac T2* and LV–RV mass indices. A significant correlation was observed between T2* and serum ferritin levels (p<0.001) and between EFLV and serum ferritin (p<0.05). ConclusionMyocardial iron load assessed by T2* cardiac magnetic resonance is associated with deterioration in left–right ventricular function; this is more evident when T2* values fall below 14ms. CMR appears to be a promising approach for cardiac risk evaluation in TM patients.

Application of a triangular fuzzy AHP approach for flood risk evaluation and response measures analysis

Flood risk evaluation and prediction represents an essential analytic step to coherently link flood control and disaster mitigation. The paper established a hybrid evaluation model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and triangular fuzzy number. It comprises flood risk evaluation and prediction to obtain risk factors ranking and comprehensive flood risk prediction, and then analyzed flood risk response measures. A case study is proposed entailing a flood risk evaluation and prediction in the Lower Yangtze River region. The evaluation results showed that the proposed evaluation and prediction model was capable of adequately representing the actual setting. In addition, a comparison with the previously described AHP and trapezoidal fuzzy AHP, and experimental results are encouraging, which fully demonstrates the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed model.

Critical Infrastructure Security: Assessment, Prevention, Detection, Response

This book provides a comprehensive survey of state-of-the-art techniques for the security of critical infrastructures, addressing both logical and physical aspects from an engineering point of view. Recently developed methodologies and tools for CI analysis as well as strategies and technologies for CI protection are investigated in the following strongly interrelated and multidisciplinary main fields: - Vulnerability analysis and risk assessment - Threat prevention, detection and response - Emergency planning and management Each of the aforementioned topics is addressed considering both theoretical aspects and practical applications. Emphasis is given to model-based holistic evaluation approaches as well as to emerging protection technologies, including smart surveillance through networks of intelligent sensing devices. Critical Infrastructure Security can be used as a self-contained reference handbook for both practitioners and researchers or even as a textbook for master/doctoral degree students in engineering or related disciplines. More specifically, the topic coverage of the book includes: - Historical background on threats to critical infrastructures - Model-based risk evaluation and management approaches - Security surveys and game-theoretic vulnerability assessment - Federated simulation for interdependency analysis - Security operator training and emergency preparedness - Intelligent multimedia (audio-video) surveillance - Terahertz body scanners for weapon and explosive detection - Security system design (intrusion detection / access control) - Dependability and resilience of computer networks (SCADA / cyber-security) - Wireless smart-sensor networks and structural health monitoring - Information systems for crisis response and emergency management - Early warning, situation awareness and decision support software