Appreciation Rates Research Articles

Climate gentrification: from theory to empiricism in Miami-Dade County, Florida

This article provides a conceptual model for the pathways by which climate change could operate to impact geographies and property markets whose inferior or superior qualities for supporting the built environment are subject to a descriptive theory known as ‘Climate Gentrification.’ The article utilizes Miami-Dade County, Florida (MDC) as a case study to explore the market mechanisms that speak to the operations and processes inherent in the theory. This article tests the hypothesis that the rate of price appreciation of single-family properties in MDC is positively related to and correlated with incremental measures of higher elevation (the ‘Elevation Hypothesis’). As a reflection of an increase in observed nuisance flooding and relative SLR, the second hypothesis is that the rates of price appreciation in lowest the elevation cohorts have not kept up with the rates of appreciation of higher elevation cohorts since approximately 2000 (the ‘Nuisance Hypothesis’). The findings support a validation of both hypotheses and suggest the potential existence of consumer preferences that are based, in part, on perceptions of flood risk and/or observations of flooding. These preferences and perceptions are anticipated to be amplified by climate change in a manner that reinforces the proposition that climate change impacts will affect the marketability and valuation of property with varying degrees of environmental exposure and resilience functionality. Uncovering these empirical relationships is a critical first step for understanding the occurrence and parameters of Climate Gentrification.

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Meslekte Kazanma Gücü Kaybı Oranları ile Takdir Oranlarının Değerlendirilmesi: Muğla Sıtkı Koçman Üniversitesi Tıp Fakültesi Adli Tıp Anabilim Dalı Olguları

Amaç: Muğla Sıtkı Koçman Üniversitesi Tıp Fakültesi Adli Tıp Anabilim Dalına; meslekte kazanma gücü kayıp oranı tespiti amacıyla başvuran olguların kalıcı iş göremezlik oranları ve takdir oranlarının değerlendirmesi ile; hangi arızalara takdir uygulandığı ve takdir oranlarının neler olduğu ortaya konmuş, uygulama içinde ilgili Yönetmeliğin kısıtlılıkları tespit edilmeye çalışılmış ve öneriler geliştirmek amaçlanmıştır.
 Gereç ve Yöntem: Haziran 2015-Aralık 2016 tarihleri arasında trafik kazası sonrası kalıcı sakatlık iddiası ile meslekte kazanma gücü kayıp oranı tespiti için başvuran 259 olgunun raporları geriye dönük değerlendirildi. Raporlarda kayıtlı, yaş, cinsiyet, kaza ile rapor düzenleme arasında geçen süre, arızaların dağılımı, iyileşme süreleri, hangi arızalar için takdir uygulandığı ve takdir oranları irdelendi. Veri analizinde, yüzde, oran, ortalama değerlerinin verildiği tanımlayıcı istatistikler kullanıldı.
 Bulgular: Çalışma Gücü ve Meslekte Kazanma Gücü Kayıp Oranı Tespit İşlemleri Yönetmeliğine göre meslekte kazanma gücünden kayıp oranı raporu düzenlenen 259 olgunun 182’si (%70.3) erkek, 77’si (%29.7) kadındı. En fazla olgu (%45.2) 20-39 yaş gru- bundaydı. Kaza tarihi ve son muayene tarihi arasında geçen süre 1-111 ay arasında değişiyordu. Toplamda 73 olgudaki arızalara (%23.1) takdir uygulanmıştı. Takdir uygulanan olguların arızaları ve takdir gerekçeleri ayrıntılı olarak tartışıldı ve ilgili Yönetmeliğin kısıtlılıkları ortaya konmaya çalışıldı.
 Sonuç: İlgili Yönetmelikte farklı klinik durumları gözetecek şekilde oranlar belirlenmemiş olmasının bir kısıtlılık olduğu, bu konuda uygulama birliğine, güncel tedavi yaklaşımları düşünülerek arıza ağırlık cetvelinin yenilenmesine ve adli tıp ve branş hekimlerinin birlikte yürüteceği çok kapsamlı bir çalışmaya ihtiyaç olduğu kanısındayız.

Reaching goals under ambiguity: Continuous-time optimal portfolio selection

In this paper, the problem of reaching goals for an investor in the financial market is studied. We follow the context of Jin and Zhou (2015) who studied the continuous-time optimal portfolio selection in which the appreciation rates are only known to be in a certain convex closed set. The cost functional in our problem is of type I{x≥1} which is not concave or convex, even not continuous, we prove that the min–max theorem is still applicable. Via PDE approach, we construct the optimal portfolio strategy. At last, we obtain the saddle point for our problem explicitly.

紫外长期胁迫对高世代麦长管蚜生命表参数的影响

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 紫外长期胁迫对高世代麦长管蚜生命表参数的影响 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201709221699 作者: 作者单位: 昆虫生态实验室,昆虫生态实验室,昆虫生态实验室,昆虫生态实验室,昆虫生态实验室 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（39970112，20470268）；高校博士点基金（20130204110004）；陕西省科技厅国际合作项目（2012） Effects of ultraviolet continuous processing on life table parameters of high generations of Sitobion avenae (Fabricius) Author: Affiliation: Insect ecology laboratory,Insect ecology laboratory,Insect ecology laboratory,Insect ecology laboratory,Insect ecology laboratory Fund Project: National Natural Science Foundation of China ( NSFC ) 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:为了评估紫外连续处理对第20代以后麦长管蚜Sitobion avenae（Fabricius）种群动态的影响，采用特定年龄生命表方法，设置不同强度（0，0.50，0.70 mW/cm2）UV-B连续多代处理麦长管蚜成虫，统计经紫外处理后的麦长管蚜第22代，第27代，第32代，第37代麦长管蚜生命表种群参数的变化并总结了1-37代麦长管蚜内禀增长率的变化规律。结果表明：（1）处理组供试麦长管蚜平均世代周期（T）呈先显著升高后下降的趋势。（2）低强度处理组内禀增长率（rm）、净增殖率（R0）、周限增长率（λ）均呈先升高后下降又升高的趋势，高强度处理组供试麦长管蚜内禀增长率（rm）、净增殖率（R0）、周限增长率（λ）呈先下降后显著升高的的趋势，且均在G37达到最大值。（3）1-37代处理组麦长管蚜rm呈现先显著增高后下降又升高又下降又显著升高的变化规律，且均在G37达到最大值。由此可见：麦长管蚜经过多代的UV-B胁迫后，对其生命表参数的影响依然显著，在G37麦长管蚜对紫外的适应能力最强。本研究的创新点在于解析了第22代以后紫外胁迫对麦长管蚜种群动态的影响，从而为全面深入的阐述紫外胁迫对麦长管蚜生长繁殖的影响规律，掌握不同紫外胁迫下的剂量效应关系及麦长管蚜的适应性提供实验基础和理论依据。 Abstract:With the appearance of the hole in the ozone and depletion of the stratosphere and the ozone, there is increasing concern about the changing trend in UV-B radiation levels and the impact of increased UV-B on organisms and ecosystems. As the environment is continuously being destroyed, irradiation intensity of UV-B has been enhanced. The aphid, Sitobion avenae (Fabricius), belonging to the suborder Homoptera, and the family Aphididae, is distributed in wheat-producing regions in China. Aphids are parasites of wheat, barley and oats, rice, corn, sugar cane, and grasses in southern China. In the early stages, aphids accumulate on the front or back of leaves, and in the later stages, they accumulate in ear to suck out the fluid, causing the injured plant to experience reduced growth, tiller reduction, 1000-grain weight. Aphids are an important pest in grain crops, which are also the dominant plants attacked by aphids that have a short growth cycle, breed quickly, and are highly adaptable. Studies on the effects of UV-B on insects are rare. Thus, additional studies are required to predict the effect of increased UV-B irradiation on the genetic evolution of S. avenae). In order to investigate the effects of ultraviolet continuous processing on the population dynamics of S. avenae after the 20th generation, we adopted certain age life tables to calculate the S. avenae life table parameters and used different strength UV-B (0, 0.50, and 0.70 mW/cm2) to treat S. avenae after the 20th generation. This analysis was intended to provide a theoretical foundation for understanding the long-term development, growth, and reproduction of S. avenae. Changes in the population parameters of the 22nd generation, the 27th generation, the 32nd generation, the 37th generation, and the intrinsic rate of increase from the first generation to the 37th generation of the aphid were studied. The results showed that:(1) The average generation cycle (T) of treatments significantly increased and then decreased; (2) in the low-intensity treatment group, intrinsic rate of increase, net appreciation rate, and weekly growth rate increased first and then decreased, before increasing again; in the high-intensity treatment group, net appreciation rate, weekly growth rate, and fecundity decreased first and then significantly increased, and they all reached the maximum in the 37th generation; and finally, (3) in the treatment group, the intrinsic rate of increase of the aphids significantly increased and then decreased twice and then significantly increased. Our study showed that after several generations of UV-B stress, the effect on the life table parameters was significant and the ability of aphids to adapt to UV radiation was strongest in the 37th generation. The aim of this study was to reveal and analyze the effects of UV stress on population dynamics of Sitobion avenae after the 22nd generation. Consequently, our data provide a long-term and in-depth understanding of the developmental effects of UV stress on the growth and reproduction of Sitobion avenae. In addition, the findings provide experimental and theoretical bases for elucidating the dose-effect relationship under different ultraviolet stress levels and the adaptability of a long-tube aphid to increased UV-B levels. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Equilibrium Investment Strategy for a DC Plan With Partial Information and Mean–Variance Criterion

This paper studies a mean–variance portfolio selection problem with partial information for a defined-contribution (DC) pension scheme. We assume that the DC pension plan member can only observe the price of the risky asset but not the appreciation rate of it in the financial market. Moreover, inflation risk and salary risk are taken into account in our model. First, by virtue of the filtering theory, we transform the partially observable mean–variance portfolio selection problem to a completely observable one. Then, to look for an equilibrium investment strategy, we formulate and tackle the mean–variance problem within a game theoretic framework. By solving an extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) system of equations, closed-form expressions of the equilibrium investment strategy and corresponding equilibrium value function with partial information are derived for the DC pension plan. In addition, some numerical illustrations are provided to show the effects of parameters on the derived equilibrium investment strategies and the efficient frontier.

The many dimensions of historic preservation value: national and local designation, internal and external policy effects

This analysis examines the internal and external policy effects of national and local register programmes for historic preservation. Robust hedonic pricing models are crucial to informing policy proposals and understanding how property markets relate to urban heritage. Estimating a repeat-sales hedonic model with neighbourhood trends and spatial mixed models, novel to this literature, offers a marked improvement in terms of jointly identifying internal and external policy effects, comparing national and local designations, separating policy from heritage effects and estimating models robust to spatial dependence and trends in hedonic prices. Historic designation variables, while often individually insignificant in the model, are always jointly significant in explaining varying appreciation rates. Local districts exhibit no consistent price impacts across the models. Being located inside a national district confers a price premium that increases over time in the preferred model specification, while prices fall in national districts’ buffers after designation. The sensitivity of results to model specification raises questions about alternative approaches to spatial dependence in the data in the urban historic preservation context. Evidence of the influence of historic district designation on property turnover and renovation investments is also examined.

Identifying House Price Booms, Bubbles and Busts: A Disequilibrium Analysis from Chaos Theory

This research has been motivated by the excesses of public policy since 2008 in an attempt to re-inflate the housing markets. Is it even possible or desirable to utilize such a vast amount of public resources to inflate a single sector such as housing that suffered from such a spectacular bubble and collapse? The consequences suggest that, as a way to bolster real household incomes and aggregate output, these policies have disappointed. In contrast, there is a fear that the monetary stimuli will lead to an unsustainable housing price inflation, if not a bubble. I address these questions in the analysis from the standpoint of determining the stable equilibrium and sustainable house price appreciation rates consistent with the growth of median household income. The problem of identifying stable house price appreciation is to first identify the major proximate determinants of household demand for housing. A second is to show empirically the movement, deviation, and variation of these factors over time compared to housing prices. I use median household income as the major demand factor for houses and median single family house prices as an indicator of the price. A third is determining the stable equilibrium of the growth of these factors and the appreciation of housing prices consistent with them. And a fourth is the adjustment process when there are small deviations from steady-state equilibrium compared to when deviations are large. It is this last distinction where the chaos theory of self-organizing systems and irreversibility of the housing market system enters to explain how the adjustment process is chaotic in this case. I conclude that, as of the beginning of June 2016, the evidence is overwhelming that housing price appreciation is in a bubble that will likely lead to significant declines in house price appreciation if not in house prices. An important policy recommendation to mitigate these declines and hasten a house price recovery follows. The continuation of expansionary monetary policies will only delay house price adjustments and lead to more severe price declines.

Disaggregated property price appreciation: The mixed repeat sales model

Real estate is, by its nature, a highly heterogeneous asset class with most investors owning a single property rather than a diversified portfolio. As a result their returns are likely to reflect not only the overall dynamics of the asset class but also the way these interact with the unique features of the property. Yet the way that property characteristics influence price dynamics is not well measured or understood. We propose a Mixed Repeat Sales (MRS) model which allows for the nature of the asset to influence price dynamics. This is illustrated empirically using a large data set for the state of New South Wales in Australia (of which Sydney city is the capital) from 2000-2014. The MRS approach enables us to estimate returns at a disaggregated level based upon property characteristics. We find significant dispersion in appreciation rates across locations and that returns were higher for separate houses compared with both apartments and attached houses. However, the size of the dwelling, reflected in the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, and the land area play a lesser role in price developments.

The optimal LTV-ratio, mortgage market variability and monetary policy regimes

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is twofold: first, it derives the optimal loan-to-value (LTV)-ratio for a mortgagor that maximizes the return to home equity when considering the capital structure of housing investment. Second, it analyses the demand-side contribution to mortgage market variability across monetary policy regimes.Design/methodology/approachThe paper endogenizes both the relation between the LTV ratio and the mortgage rate and the relation between LTV and the rate of appreciation. When we consider LTV-variance and the demand-side contribution to mortgage market variability, three stylized regimes is considered.FindingsThe paper finds an intuitive ranking of the optimal LTV-ratios across regimes, and the optimal LTV-ratio peaks during a housing boom. When, however, monetary policy ignores asset inflation the demand-side contribution to market variability is highest during normal market conditions. Hence, there is a potentially hump-shaped relation between the risk exposure of individual mortgagors and the demand-side contribution to mortgage market variability.Originality/valueThe paper finds a potentially hump-shaped relation between the risk exposure of individual mortgagors and the demand-side contribution to mortgage market variability, which, to the best of our knowledge, is novel. The paper shows how macro-prudential and monetary policy are complementary tolls for preserving financial stability.

The Great Recession and real estate cycles – challenges, opportunities, and lessons learned

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is twofold: the authors initially survey a sample of literature published after the Great Recession that address macroeconomic and commercial real estate forecasting methods related to the Great Recession and compare significant lessons learned, or lack thereof. The authors then seek to identify new models to improve the predictability of commercial real estate early warning signals regarding cyclical turning points which result in negative appreciation rates.Design/methodology/approachThe authors develop a probit model to estimate quarterly probabilities of negative office appreciation returns using an alternative methodology to Tsolaco et al. (2014). The authors’ alternative method incorporates generally publicly available macroeconomic and real estate variables such as gross domestic product, office-related employment sectors, cap rate spreads, and commercial mortgage flow of funds into a probit model in order to estimate the probability of future quarterly negative office appreciation rates.FindingsThe authors’ models demonstrate the predictive power of macroeconomic variables typically associated with office demand. The probit model specification shows probabilities of negative office appreciations rates greater than 50 percent either as the quarterly office returns become negative, or in some cases several quarters before office returns become negative, for both the Great Recession and the recession occurring in the early 1990s. The models fail to show probabilities greater than 50 percent of negative office returns until after they occur for the recession in 2001. While this indicates need for further improvement in early warning models, the models do predict the more severe periods of negative office returns in advance, indicating the findings useful to real estate investors to monitor the changes in economic and real estate data identified as statistically significant in the results.Practical implicationsThe Great Recession is a unique laboratory of significant contractions, recessions, and recoveries that challenge pre-recessionary real estate cycle models. The models provide guidance on which historical economic indicators are important to track, and gives a framework with which to calculate the probability that office prices are likely to decline. Because the models use macroeconomic indicators that are publicly available from at least one quarter in the past, the models or variations of them may provide real estate professionals with some indication of an impending decrease in office prices, even if that indication comes only one quarter in advance. Armed with this information, property owners, investors, and brokers can make more informed decisions on whether to buy or sell, and how sensitive their real estate transactions may be to timing.Originality/valueThe authors introduce several new models that examine the ability of historical macroeconomic indicators to provide early warning signals and identify turning points in real estate valuations, specifically negative office appreciation rates caused by the Great Recession. Using data from at least one quarter in the past, all the data in the models are publicly available (excluding National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries data) at the observed return quarter being predicted, which gives practitioners rational insights that can provide at least one source of guidance about the likelihood of an impending decrease in office prices.

The effect of local amenities on house price appreciation amid market shocks: The case of school quality

Combining the strengths of price index and boundary fixed effects models, this paper examines the factors leading to spatial house price appreciation divergences during market shocks. Specifically, I focus on the relationship between school quality and house price appreciation rates during the period of rapid house price increases and decreases between 2000 and 2012. I find that appreciation rates diverge across school districts in Franklin County, OH during the entire time period. Results identified through spatial-temporal boundary controls provide evidence that standardized test scores positively drive this relationship during the housing market decline in the latter half of the period from 2007 to 2012; in contrast, there is no overall relationship between school quality and appreciation rates during the preceding period of housing price increases from 2000 to 2006.

Variance risk premiums and the forward premium puzzle

We provide new empirical evidence that world currency and U.S. stock variance risk premiums have nonredundant and significant predictive power for the appreciation rates of 22 with respect to the U.S. dollar, especially at the four-month and one-month horizons, respectively. The heterogeneous exposures of currencies to the currency variance risk premium are systematically rising along the line of inflation risk. We rationalize these findings in a consumption-based asset pricing model, with local consumption uncertainty and global inflation uncertainty characterized, respectively, by the stock and currency variance risk premiums.

Quantile house price indices in Beijing

Using a comprehensive micro-level dataset of newly-built residential housing units in Beijing, we examine the determinants of house prices from 2013 to 2015, and construct a regular house price index using Ordinary Least Squares estimation and quantile house price indices using quantile regression. Our findings suggest a high appreciation rate of house prices from 2013 to 2015. Moreover, we find that most housing attributes are valued differently across the complete distribution of house prices, and the distribution of house prices changes according to the different value of housing attributes. The result shows that even though the trend of house price indices is similar, the magnitude of appreciation rates vary across different quantiles.

Variation Across Price Segments and Locations: A Comprehensive Quantile Regression Analysis of the Sydney Housing Market

AbstractStandard house price indices measure average movements of average houses in average locations belonging to an average price segment and hence obscure spatial and cross‐sectional variation of price appreciation rates even within a single metropolitan area. This article combines penalized quantile regression techniques with the hedonic imputation approach to reveal such kind of variation. The method is applied to house transactions from Sydney between 2001 and 2014. The analysis finds significant variation across sub‐markets over time and in particular during the boom‐and‐bust cycle peaking in 2004. Appreciation rates were highest for suburban, low‐priced and lowest for inner‐city, high‐priced houses.

Information Frictions and Housing Market Dynamics

This paper examines the effects of seller uncertainty over their home value on the housing market. Using evidence from a new dataset on home listings and transactions, I first show that sellers do not have full information about current period demand conditions for their homes. I incorporate this type of uncertainty into a dynamic search model of the home selling problem with Bayesian learning. Simulations of the estimated model show that information frictions help explain short-run persistence in price appreciation rates and a positive (negative) correlation between price changes and sales volume (time on market).

INFORMATION FRICTIONS AND HOUSING MARKET DYNAMICS

I examine the effects of seller uncertainty over their home value on the housing market. Using evidence from home listings and transactions data, I first show that sellers do not have full information about current period demand conditions for their homes. I incorporate this type of uncertainty into a dynamic microsearch model of the home selling problem with Bayesian learning. The estimated model highlights how information frictions help to explain the microdecisions of sellers and how these microdecisions affect aggregate market dynamics. The model generates a significant microfounded momentum effect in short‐run aggregate price appreciation rates.

Model Uncertainty, Ambiguity Premium and Optimal Asset Allocation

In this paper I investigate financial markets with drift and volatility uncertainties. Appropriate definitions of arbitrage for super and sub-hedging strategies are presented such that the super and sub-hedging prices are reasonable. Especially the condition of arbitrage for sub-hedging strategy fills the gap of the theory of arbitrage under model uncertainty. The Profit&Loss (P&L for short) of super(sub)-hedging is derived to be in fact the penalty term K with finite-variance arising in the super(sub)-hedging strategy. The ask-bid spread is hence an accumulation of the superhedging P&L and the subhedging P&L.Asset allocation under constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) utility is investigated with ambiguous volatility and subjective risk premium. I show that ambiguity aversion of a rational individual decreases her market participation. The aggregate premium is computed explicitly which is decomposed into three parts. Opposite signs between the rates of ambiguity premium and risk premium demonstrate that a decrease in ambiguity premium on volatility gives rise to an increase in risk premium.Kelly criterion for the wealth process to reach a goal is also studied under such ambiguous market. Ambiguity of stock appreciation rate results in investors' withdraw from markets whereas in a single-priced market, investors always trade with the market if no short-sale constraints and no transaction cost.

Exponential utility maximization for an insurer with time-inconsistent preferences

This paper studies the optimal consumption–investment–reinsurance problem for an insurer with a general discount function and exponential utility function in a non-Markovian model. The appreciation rate and volatility of the stock, the premium rate and volatility of the risk process of the insurer are assumed to be adapted stochastic processes, while the interest rate is assumed to be deterministic. The object is to maximize the utility of intertemporal consumption and terminal wealth. By the method of multi-person differential game, we show that the time-consistent equilibrium strategy and the corresponding equilibrium value function can be characterized by the unique solutions of a BSDE and an integral equation. Under appropriate conditions, we show that this integral equation admits a unique solution. Furthermore, we compare the time-consistent equilibrium strategies with the optimal strategy for exponential discount function, and with the strategies for naive insurers in two special cases.

Local risk minimization for vulnerable European contingent claims on nontradable assets under regime switching models

ABSTRACTThis article focuses on an optimal hedging problem of the vulnerable European contingent claims. The underlying asset of the vulnerable European contingent claims is assumed to be nontradable. The interest rate, the appreciation rate and the volatility of risky assets are modulated by a finite-state continuous-time Markov chain. By using the local risk minimization method, we obtain an explicit closed-form solution for the optimal hedging strategies of the vulnerable European contingent claims. Further, we consider a problem of hedging for a vulnerable European call option. Optimal hedging strategies are obtained. Finally, a numerical example for the optimal hedging strategies of the vulnerable European call option in a two-regime case is provided to illustrate the sensitivities of the hedging strategies.