Application Of Machine Learning Methods Research Articles

Evaluation and Application of Machine Learning Techniques for Quality Improvement in Metal Product Manufacturing

This article presents a discussion of the application of machine learning methods to enhance the quality of drive shaft production, with a particular focus on the identification of critical quality issues, including cracks, scratches, and dimensional deviations, which have been observed in the final stages of machining. A variety of classification algorithms, including neural networks (NNs), bagged trees (BT), and support vector machines (SVMs), were employed to efficiently analyse and predict defects. The results show that neural networks achieved the highest accuracy (94.7%) and the fastest prediction time, thereby underscoring their efficiency in processing complex production data. The BT model demonstrated stability in its predictions with a slower prediction time, while the SVM model exhibited superior training speed, though with slightly lower accuracy. This article proposes that optimising key process parameters, such as temperature, machining speed, and the type of coolant used, can markedly reduce the prevalence of production defects. It also recommends integrating machine learning with traditional quality management techniques to create a more flexible and adaptive control system, which could help reduce production losses and enhance customer satisfaction.

Investigation of Freeway Incident Duration Using Classification and Regression Trees Based on Multisource Data

Targeted contingency measures have proven highly effective at reducing the duration and harm caused by incidents. This study utilized the Classification and Regression Trees (CART) data mining technique to predict and quantify the duration of incidents. To achieve this, multisensor data collected from the Hangzhou freeway in China spanning from 2019 to 2021 was utilized to construct a regression tree with eight levels and 14 leaf nodes. By extracting 14 rules from the tree and establishing contingency measures based on these rules, accurate incident assessment and effective implementation of post-incident emergency plans were achieved. In addition, to more accurately apply the research findings to actual incidents, the CART method was compared with XGBoost, Random Forest (RF), and AFT (accelerated failure time) models. The results indicated that the prediction accuracy of the CART model is better than the other three models. Furthermore, the CART method has strong interpretability. Interactions between explanatory variables, up to seven, are captured in the CART method, rather than merely analyzing the effect of individual variables on the incident duration, aligning more closely with actual incidents. This study has important practical implications for advancing the engineering application of machine learning methods and the analysis of sensor data.

Machine Learning Model for Predicting Walking Ability in Lower Limb Amputees

Background/Objectives: The number of individuals with lower limb loss (LLL) is rising. Therefore, identifying the walking potential in individuals with LLL and prescribing adequate prosthetic systems are crucial. Various factors can influence participants’ walking ability, to different extents. The aim of the present study was to apply machine learning methods to develop a predictive mode. This model can assist rehabilitation and limb loss care teams in making informed decisions regarding prosthesis prescription and predicting walking ability in individuals with LLL. Methods: The present study was designed as a prospective cross-sectional study encompassing 104 consecutively recruited participants with LLL (average age 62.1 ± 10.9 years, 80 (76.9%) men) at the Medical Rehabilitation Clinic. Demographic, physical, psychological, and social status data of patients were collected at the beginning of the rehabilitation program. At the end of the treatment, K-level estimation of functional ability, a Timed Up and Go Test (TUG), and a Two-Minute Walking Test (TMWT) were performed. Support vector machines (SVM) were used to develop the prediction model. Results: Three decision trees were created, one for each output, as follows: K-level, TUG, and TMWT. For all three outputs, there were eight significant predictors (balance, body mass index, age, Beck depression inventory, amputation level, muscle strength of the residual extremity hip extensors, intact extremity (IE) plantar flexors, and IE hip extensors). For the K-level, the ninth predictor was The Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS). Conclusions: Using the SVM model, we can predict the K-level, TUG, and TMWT with high accuracy. These clinical assessments could be incorporated into routine clinical practice to guide clinicians and inform patients of their potential level of ambulation.

Expression of Salivary miRNAs, Clinical, and Demographic Features in the Early Detection of Gastric Cancer: A Statistical and Machine Learning Analysis.

Gastric cancer ranks as one of the top five deadliest cancers worldwide and is often diagnosed at late stages. Analysis of saliva may provide a non-invasive approach for detection of malignancies in organs associated with the oral cavity. This research aims to analyze salivary microRNA expression together with clinical and demographic features with the aim of diagnosing gastric cancer. The study included 19 patients with early-stage gastric cancer and 19 healthy controls. Saliva samples were collected and processed for RNA isolation. Salivary expression of miR-223-3p and miR-21-5p were measured using quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to evaluate the accuracy of diagnostic models. Machine learning algorithms, multiple logistic regression, and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to assess the predictive power of miRNAs in conjunction with clinical-demographic features. Significant upregulation of miR-223-3p and downregulation of miR-21-5p in saliva were observed in patients with gastric cancer. The area under ROC curve (AUC) values for salivary miR-21-5p, salivary miR-223-3p, and their multiple logistic regression were determined to be 0.723, 0.791, and 0.850, respectively. The AUC for multiple logistic regression model was 0.919. The PCA model led to the highest diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) of 134.33 (sensitivity = 0.785, specificity = 1.00, AUC = 903). Application of machine learning methods, and in particular a random forest algorithm, showed high accuracy in diagnosing patients with gastric cancer (sensitivity = 1.00, specificity = 0.857, AUC = 0.93). The application of validated salivary diagnostics in clinical practice could help facilitate earlier diagnosis of gastric cancer and improve medical outcome. Expression of miR-21 and miR-223-3p in saliva together with clinical and demographic features, appears promising in screening for GC.

Prediction of Hydrogen Production from Solid Oxide Electrolytic Cells Based on ANN and SVM Machine Learning Methods

In recent years, the application of machine learning methods has become increasingly common in atmospheric science, particularly in modeling and predicting processes that impact air quality. This study focuses on predicting hydrogen production from solid oxide electrolytic cells (SOECs), a technology with significant potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality. We developed two models using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machine (SVM) to predict hydrogen production. The input variables are current, voltage, communication delay time, and real-time measured hydrogen production, while the output variable is hydrogen production at the next sampling time. Both models address the critical issue of production hysteresis. Using 50 h of SOEC system data, we evaluated the effectiveness of the ANN and SVM methods, incorporating hydrogen production time as an input variable. The results show that the ANN model is superior to the SVM model in terms of hydrogen production prediction performance. Specifically, the ANN model shows strong predictive performance at a communication delay time ε = 0.01–0.02 h, with RMSE = 2.59 × 10−2, MAPE = 33.34 × 10−2%, MAE = 1.70 × 10−2 Nm3/h, and R2 = 99.76 × 10−2. At delay time ε = 0.03 h, the ANN model yields RMSE = 2.74 × 10−2 Nm3/h, MAPE = 34.43 × 10−2%, MAE = 1.73 × 10−2 Nm3/h, and R2 = 99.73 × 10−2. Using the SVM model, the prediction error values at delay time ε = 0.01–0.02 h are RMSE = 2.70 × 10−2 Nm3/h, MAPE = 44.01 × 10−2%, MAE = 2.24 × 10−2 Nm3/h, and R2 = 99.74 × 10−2, while at delay time ε = 0.03 h they become RMSE = 2.67 × 10−2 Nm3/h, MAPE = 43.44 × 10−2%, MAE = 2.11 × 10−2 Nm3/h, and R2 = 99.75 × 10−2. With this precision, the ANN model for SOEC hydrogen production prediction has positive implications for air pollution control strategies and the development of cleaner energy technologies, contributing to overall improvements in air quality and the reduction of atmospheric pollutants.

Data-Driven Approaches in Antimicrobial Resistance: Machine Learning Solutions

Background/Objectives: The emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) due to the misuse and overuse of antibiotics has become a critical threat to global public health. There is a dire need to forecast AMR to understand the underlying mechanisms of resistance for the development of effective interventions. This paper explores the capability of machine learning (ML) methods, particularly unsupervised learning methods, to enhance the understanding and prediction of AMR. It aims to determine the patterns from AMR gene data that are clinically relevant and, in public health, capable of informing strategies. Methods: We analyzed AMR gene data in the PanRes dataset by applying unsupervised learning techniques, namely K-means clustering and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). These techniques were applied to identify clusters based on gene length and distribution according to resistance class, offering insights into the resistance genes’ structural and functional properties. Data preprocessing, such as filtering and normalization, was conducted prior to applying machine learning methods to ensure consistency and accuracy. Our methodology included the preprocessing of data and reduction of dimensionality to ensure that our models were both accurate and interpretable. Results: The unsupervised learning models highlighted distinct clusters of AMR genes, with significant patterns in gene length, including their associated resistance classes. Further dimensionality reduction by PCA allows for clearer visualizations of relationships among gene groupings. These patterns provide novel insights into the potential mechanisms of resistance, particularly the role of gene length in different resistance pathways. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the potential of ML, specifically unsupervised approaches, to enhance the understanding of AMR. The identified patterns in resistance genes could support clinical decision-making and inform public health interventions. However, challenges remain, particularly in integrating genomic data and ensuring model interpretability. Further research is needed to advance ML applications in AMR prediction and management.

Application of machine learning methods for the classification of vibroacoustic signals measured at the moment of transformer energization with varying degrees of core and winding defect complexity

Application of machine learning methods for the classification of vibroacoustic signals measured at the moment of transformer energization with varying degrees of core and winding defect complexity

Identification of biomarkers related to Escherichia coli infection for the diagnosis of gastrointestinal tumors applying machine learning methods

Identification of biomarkers related to Escherichia coli infection for the diagnosis of gastrointestinal tumors applying machine learning methods

Chest x-ray images: transfer learning model in COVID-19 detection.

This research aims to develop an effective algorithm for diagnosing COVID-19 in chest X-rays using the transfer learning method and support vector machines. In total, data was collected from 10 clinics, including both large city hospitals and smaller medical institutions. This ensured a diverse range of geographical and demographic information in the sample. An extensive data set was collected, including 10,000 chest X-ray images. 5000 images represent normal cases, 3993 images represent pneumonia cases, and 1007 images represent COVID-19 cases. Machine learning methods were applied to develop a classification model, and the results were compared with seven state-of-the-art models and a lightweight CNN architecture. The results showed that the proposed method achieves high accuracy values (Accuracy): 0.95 for COVID-19, 0.89 for pneumonia, and 0.92 for normal images (p < 0.05). Comparison with other models demonstrates statistically significant superiority of our method in accuracy across all three classes. The EfficientNet-B0 model surpasses our method only in accuracy for normal images with p < 0.01, confirming the advantages of our method. Our method demonstrates high sensitivity values (Sensitivity): 0.96 for COVID-19, 0.88 for pneumonia, and 0.93 for normal images (p < 0.05), outperforming most of the compared models. Correlation analysis showed Pearson coefficients of 0.92, 0.89, and 0.94 for COVID-19, pneumonia, and normal images, respectively, confirming a high degree of consistency between predicted and true class labels. In addition, the model was validated on external datasets to assess its generalizability. This validation confirmed its high level of effectiveness in a variety of clinical settings. This study confirms the importance of applying machine learning methods in medical applications and opens new perspectives for early diagnosis of infectious diseases. The practical application of the obtained results can enhance the efficiency of diagnosis and control the spread of COVID-19, as well as contribute to the development of innovative methods in medical practice.

Research on in-vivo electron paramagnetic resonance spectrum classification and radiation dose prediction based on machine learning

The in-vivo electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) method can be used for on-site, rapid, and non-invasive detection of radiation dose to casualties after nuclear and radiation emergencies. For in-vivo EPR spectrum analysis, manual labeling of peaks and calculation of signal intensity are often used, which have problems such as large workload and interference by subjective factors. In this study, a method for automatic classification and identification of in-vivo EPR spectra was established using support vector machine (SVM) technology, which can in-batch and automatically identify and screen out invalid spectra due to vibration and dental surface water interference during in-vivo EPR measurements. In this study, a spectrum analysis method based on genetic algorithm optimization neural network (GA-BPNN) was established, which can automatically identify the radiation-induced signals in in-vivo EPR spectra and predict the radiation doses received by the injured. The experimental results showed that the SVM and GA-BPNN spectrum processing methods established in this study could effectively accomplish the automatic spectra classification and radiation dose prediction, and could meet the needs of dose assessment in nuclear emergency. This study explored the application of machine learning methods in EPR spectrum processing, improved the intelligence level of EPR spectrum processing, and would help to enhance the efficiency of mass EPR spectra processing.

Application of machine learning method for energy reconstruction on space based high granularity calorimeter

Application of machine learning method for energy reconstruction on space based high granularity calorimeter

An adaptive meta-imitation learning-based recommendation environment simulator: A case study on ship-cargo matching

High-quality shipping is one of the effective ways for sustainable cities in inland river basins to improve transportation efficiency and reduce energy consumption. Currently, the biggest challenge faced by shipping is the high empty-ship rate, which makes it impossible to directly apply machine learning methods due to the cold-start problem. Although some researchers have tried to utilize deep reinforcement learning(DRL)-based recommendation that do not rely on manually labeled data to alleviate the cold-start problem, progress has been slow due to the lack of available training environment. Therefore, this paper introduces an adaptive meta-imitation learning-based recommendation environment simulator, termed AMIL-Simulator. Specifically, we construct a conditionally guided diffusion model to simulate shipowner behavior in a dynamically changing environment. Moreover, we propose a shipowner reward model based on adaptive meta-imitation learning, enabling the learning of shipowner rewards across multiple tasks, even when confronted with limited samples and imbalanced categories. By conducting extensive quantitative experimental evaluations and shipowner-cargo matching studies, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of AMIL-Simulator, particularly in smaller-scale and cold-start environments.

Discovering potential founders within academic institutions

AbstractTechnology transfer is central to the development of an iconic entrepreneurial university. To foster knowledge transfer, many universities undergo a scouting process by their innovation coaches. The goal is to find staff members and students, who have the knowledge, expertise, and the potential to found startups by transforming their research results into a product. Since there is no systematic approach to measure the innovation potential of university members based on their academic activities, the scouting process is typically subjective and relies heavily on the experience of the innovation coaches. In this paper, we study the discovery of potential founders to support the scouting process using a data-driven approach. We create a novel data set by integrating the founder profiles with the academic activities from 8 universities across 5 countries. We explain the process of data integration as well as feature engineering. By applying machine learning methods, we investigate the classification accuracy of founders based on their academic background. Our analysis shows that using a random forest (RF), it is possible to differentiate founders and non-founders with an average accuracy of 79%. This accuracy remains mostly stable when applying an RF trained on one university to another, suggesting the existence of a generic founder profile. The detailed analysis indicates a high significance of the career path as well as patent- and grant-related features among others. Furthermore, we show that using a RF, it is possible to exploit these features to predict the future founding probability up to 3 years in advance with an accuracy of 80%. Finally, by analyzing the academic disciplines of founders we show that the patent documents have more influence on the startup’s core orientation than the publications.

CRP, PCT, and D-dimer as Biomarkers for Disease Severity in COVID-19 Patients: A Retrospective Study in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on global health, resulting in more than 6 million reported deaths worldwide as of April 2023. This study aimed to investigate the potential of C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and D-dimer as biomarkers for assessing disease severity in COVID-19 patients in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo Methods:A retrospective examination was conducted involving 339 COVID-19 patients admitted to Kinshasa hospitals between January 2021 and March 2022. CRP, PCT, and D-dimer levels were measured in all patients and compared between those with severe and non-severe illnesses. Results: Our findings revealed significantly higher CRP, PCT, and D-dimer levels in severe cases compared to non-severe cases. Specifically, the median CRP level was 120.6 mg/L in severe cases, 47.3 mg/L in mild cases, and 13.5 mg/L in moderate cases. The median PCT levels were 0.26 ng/mL in severe cases, 0.08 ng/ mL in mild cases, and 0.07 ng/L in moderate cases. Additionally, the median D-dimer level was 1836.9 µg/L in severe cases and 597.6 µg/L in mild cases, with a value of 481.1 µg/L in moderate cases. System learning techniques were also employed to predict disease severity based on these biomarkers, achieving high accuracy. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that CRP, PCT, and D-dimer serve as valuable biomarkers for identifying severe COVID-19 cases in Kinshasa. Furthermore, the application of machine learning methods can yield accurate predictions of disease severity based on these biomarkers. These biomarkers hold the potential to assist clinicians in informed decision-making regarding patient management and contribute to improved clinical outcomes for COVID-19 patients.

Application of Machine Learning Methods to Analyze the Dependence of Vibration Acceleration Signals on the Tightening Forces of Bolted Connections

The article is devoted to the application of machine learning methods for the analysis of vibration acceleration signals in bolted joints that occur under impact. The relevance of the work is due to the need to ensure the reliability and operability of bolted joints under loads. One of the promising areas of non-destructive testing is the analysis of the characteristics of vibration acceleration signals that change with changes in the state of structures, for example, with an increase in the tightening torque. This allows for the timely detection of possible defects and the prevention of emergency situations, ensuring the safety and durability of structures. The vibration acceleration signals under impact action on a bolted joint were analyzed. After calculating the signal characteristics, data sets were formed, including the values of tightening torques and the corresponding calculated signal characteristics, a search for a correlation between the tightening torque of bolted joints and the obtained set of vibration signal parameters was carried out. The frequency spectrum of signals, the Higuchi fractal dimension, detrended fluctuations, spectral power density and position of signal peaks were calculated. Machine learning models such as decision trees, the nearest neighbor method, the k-means method and neural networks were used for the analysis. For these methods, an optimal set of parameters correlating with the tightening torque was searched for. The main results show that machine learning methods are effective in classifying signals and finding correlations with stress state parameters. They allow us to detect the relationship between a set of signal characteristics and tightening torque, which opens up opportunities for more accurate and reliable monitoring of the condition of bolted connections. This should help to increase their operational reliability and durability, as well as reduce the likelihood of failures and accidents. The use of such methods can improve the quality of monitoring and diagnostics of bolted connections.

Enhancing dietary analysis: Using machine learning for food caloric and health risk assessment.

In the wake of growing concerns regarding diet-related health issues, this study investigates the application of machine learning methods to estimate the energy content and classify the health risks of foods based on the USDA National Nutrient Database. The caloric content of foods was estimated using the nutritional composition (i.e., carbohydrates, protein, total lipid, and total sugar content) and classified based on their weighted health risks, considering their carbohydrate, lipid, and glycemic index levels. The algorithms used for modeling include multiple linear regression (MLR), K-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, random forest regression (RFR), gradient-boosted regression, decision trees (DT), and deep neural networks. The MLR model demonstrated high accuracy on the training dataset (R2=0.99, mean absolute error [MAE]=7.71kcal, and root mean squared error [RMSE]=17.89kcal) and testing dataset (R2=0.99, MAE=7.75kcal, and RMSE=18kcal) in energy estimation, indicating its effectiveness in dietary assessment. The RFR and DT models were useful in categorizing foods into low-health-risk foods, but their performance was reduced in medium and high-health-risk groups. This research contributes to developing tools that could aid in personalized dietary planning and public health interventions to mitigate diet-related health risks. PRACTICAL APPLICATION: This study applies machine learning to estimate how many calories are in food and to understand the health risks different foods might have. By investigating the fats, cholesterol, and sugars in food items listed in a public database, we can better plan diets or develop apps that help people make healthier eating choices. This work aims to improve public access to nutritional information, supporting efforts to combat diet-related diseases through educational materials and applications that guide dietary choices in various settings.

Application of Machine Learning Methods in Predicting Lysine-specific Histone Demethylase 1 (LSD1) Inhibitors

Background: Lysine-specific histone demethylase 1 (LSD1) is a well-known anti-cancer target for drug discovery. Novel reversible inhibitors of LSD1 are desirable to be developed. Objective: This study aimed to build reliable predictive models to evaluate the antineoplastic efficacy of compounds and reveal the structural foundation underlying the inhibitory activity of LSD1. Methods: Multiple artificial intelligence algorithms were utilized in the development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models. A dataset comprising 915 compounds with welldefined IC50 values against LSD1 was assembled for analysis. The structures of these compounds were described by different descriptor packages. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed to explore the chemical space distribution of each dataset. Y-randomization test and applicability domain (AD) analysis were deployed to validate the reliability of models. Results: For regression models, a consensus model was constructed by integrating the predictions of four top-performing individual models (SVM_ECFP4, RFR_PyDescriptor, RFR_RDKIT, and TRANSNNI), resulting in enhanced predictive performance as compared to the individual models. The consensus model achieved a determination coefficient (r2, for the test set) value of 0.82. For classification models, the consensus model was derived from the amalgamation of three individual models (ASNN_RDKIT, ASNN_ECFP4, and RFR_ECFP4), and the overall prediction accuracy of the model was 0.96 for external validation. Conclusion: The reliable models could be used to identify highly active LSD1 inhibitors for the purpose of efficient virtual screening. In addition, the important molecular properties and structural fragments derived from this work can provide guidance for the structural optimization of novel LSD1 inhibitors.

Classification of Air Pollutant Index on Data with Outliers and Imbalance Class Problem

The problem of air pollution has become a global issue that has received attention from various countries. Jakarta, Indonesia's capital city, is unavoidable from the same problem. This study will use four parameters of substances PM10, SO2, CO, O3, and nitrogen dioxide to categorize Jakarta's air quality (NO2). The data used is daily data taken from the Air Quality Monitoring Station in Jakarta throughout 2020. The methods used include SVM, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, KNN, CART, and Stacking Algorithm. At the data preparation stage, we found missing values, outliers, and class imbalance problems. Before applying machine learning methods and evaluating accuracy, we used data pre-processing techniques such as the MissForest method, median substitution, and ADASYN. The results prove that the original dataset has a higher accuracy score (0.882 – 0.977) than the balanced dataset (0.829 – 0.976). According to the evaluation results, the Random Forest method has the highest accuracy score for original and balanced datasets. The overall result is better than the identical research, which produces 96.61% accuracy using a neural network. It shows that preprocessing steps such as missing values handling an imbalanced class handling is essential in classification performance.

Analysis of applying machine learning methods in rock classification problems on core samples

Relevance. Core studies in the oil and gas industry allow us to obtain some filtration and capacity characteristics of rocks, as well as to give an idea of the composition and structure of the subsoil. This information is extremely important in the early stages of field development, as it allows us to formulate a primary version of the development project, which is then refined during the course of field drilling. However, core analysis and description are an extremely labor-intensive and human-influenced works that require automation. Thus, core image research is a popular task in the oil and gas industry that requires high accuracy and care during work; especially considering the volume of images that have to be analyzed. Aim. To review and analyze existing algorithms for classifying rocks from core images based on machine learning methods; as well as to use the information obtained to formulate recommendations for the development of these algorithms. Methods. Machine learning methods, including neural networks. Results. The work analyzed existing approaches to the study of core samples. The main advantages and disadvantages of each of them were noted and, based on the findings, a plan and requirements for conducting further research on core samples using machine learning were developed. As a result, using a convolutional neural network on the U-Net architecture, the authors have trained a model to solve the problem of segmentation of core samples in daytime images and presented the results of the model operation.

Predicting the risk of diabetes complications using machine learning and social administrative data in a country with ethnic inequities in health: Aotearoa New Zealand

BackgroundIn the age of big data, linked social and administrative health data in combination with machine learning (ML) is being increasingly used to improve prediction in chronic disease, e.g., cardiovascular diseases (CVD). In this study we aimed to apply ML methods on extensive national-level health and social administrative datasets to assess the utility of these for predicting future diabetes complications, including by ethnicity.MethodsFive ML models were used to predict CVD events among all people with known diabetes in the population of New Zealand, utilizing nationwide individual-level administrative data.ResultsThe Xgboost ML model had the best predictive power for predicting CVD events three years into the future among the population with diabetes (N = 145,600). The optimization procedure also found limited improvement in prediction by ethnicity (using area under the receiver operating curve, [AUC]). The results indicated no trade-off between model predictive performance and equity gap of prediction by ethnicity (that is improving model prediction and reducing performance gaps by ethnicity can be achieved simultaneously). The list of variables of importance was different among different models/ethnic groups, for example: age, deprivation (neighborhood-level), having had a hospitalization event, and the number of years living with diabetes.Discussion and conclusionsWe provide further evidence that ML with administrative health data can be used for meaningful future prediction of health outcomes. As such, it could be utilized to inform health planning and healthcare resource allocation for diabetes management and the prevention of CVD events. Our results may suggest limited scope for developing prediction models by ethnic group and that the major ways to reduce inequitable health outcomes is probably via improved delivery of prevention and management to those groups with diabetes at highest need.