Application Of Real Options Research Articles

Exploring the Usefulness of Real Options Theory for Foreign Affiliate Divestments: Real Abandonment Options’ Applications

Scholars propose that future research on real options theory should shift attention away from option buying during the first investment stage and toward option execution after investment. Researchers maintain that it would be interesting to explore the circumstances under which investors decide to withdraw their investments, thereby exercising the option to abandon their investments. The present research seeks to fill the gap in the literature and investigate the applicability of real options theory when an organization enhances sustainability policies while focusing on disciplined capital allocation through exit strategies. With case study data on Natura &Co’s divestment strategy for the Body Shop in November 2023, a real options analysis revealed the method’s practical advantages and disadvantages. This paper investigates real options theory in the context of the divestments of foreign affiliates, providing unique viewpoints and enhancing the theory beyond previous knowledge while also increasing our understanding of the divestiture phenomenon. This study concludes with a review of this paper’s theoretical contributions to real options theory, the managerial and practical/social implications of real options applications in general, and the valuation methods of abandonment options in particular, shedding light on the potential of future research.

A comprehensive analysis of real options in solar photovoltaic projects: A cluster-based approach

Solar photovoltaic (PV) projects are pivotal in addressing climate change and fostering a sustainable energy future. However, the complex landscape of renewable energy investments, characterized by high upfront costs, market uncertainties, and evolving technologies, demands innovative evaluation methods. The Real Options Approach has emerged as a powerful tool, offering strategic flexibility in decision-making under uncertainty. This paper comprehensively analyzes the application of real options for evaluating solar photovoltaic projects in 2008–2023. Analysis of document descriptors (author keywords, index keywords, and noun phrases extracted from titles and abstracts) reveals that the dominant research topics in the last ten years (2014–2023) include investment optimization, strategic analysis, energy policy, optimization of energy generation and investments in wind energy. These descriptors are used to analyze the evolution of research interests on a two-year basis and reveal the yearly evolution of the research topics. Finally, the concept of emergence is used to unveil emerging research trends, providing valuable insights for researchers and practitioners in the renewable energy sector. Ultimately, this work contributes to a deeper understanding of how real options analysis empowers decision-makers to make informed choices in advancing clean and sustainable energy solutions.

Valuation of Patent-Based Collaborative Synergies under Strategic Settings with Multiple Uncertainties: Rainbow Real Options Approach

Recent years have seen increasing initiatives involving more applications of real options to value the strategizing process. These initiatives, referred to as Real Option Theory (ROT), imply greater inclusiveness of simple and advanced real options in strategizing processes. While substantial theoretical groundwork on ROT has been laid in corporate finance, and both qualitative and quantitative studies on ROT in business management journals are appearing on an increasing basis, there remain significant opportunities for more research on strategic synergism in patent-based acquisitions. In this vein, the current paper aims to explore a rainbow real options application (real options that are exposed to two sources of uncertainty) to measure patent-based collaborative synergies in high-tech mergers and acquisitions. Having conducted the deviant case study of ZOOX start-up’s acquisition by Amazon.com in 2020, this paper justifies the proposition of the employability of rainbow real options for the valuation of network and relational synergies in highly risky patent-based acquisitions with multiple uncertainties.

A Review of the Option Pricing Model and Further Development

The Black Scholes model and binomial tree model have been the main research objects of scholars in the past fifty years. This article summarizes the optimization process of these two classic option pricing models to understand the different directions of optimizing the models and to provide ideas for future model improvement. Improvements from scholars to the Black-Scholes model mainly focus on the basic model and the relevant variables involved in option pricing, while the optimization of the binomial tree model focuses on the reduction of pricing errors as well as the improvement of model fitting speed. Empirical studies of option pricing models have shown that improved models while enhancing the accuracy of pricing in various financial markets, unavoidably increase computational complexity and reduce efficiency. This article also demonstrates the future integration of financial derivatives pricing models in multiple fields by describing the application of real options in the agriculture, technology, and biology industries.

Economic Risk of Wind Farm Investments in UAE: Evaluation through Real Options Approach

This study examines the potential of business investments in wind offshore farm in the United Arab Emirates through projection of five different possible scenarios. The evaluation was done by using real option approach and Monte Carlo simulation imbibing the potential risk on investment with the source of funds used. Our analysis indicates that the return on investments and the risk on delay option remain at the highest degree if the project is financed with 50% government support and 50% investor’s own equity. On the contrary, a 100% bank-financed project yields lowest investments return and lowest risk option to delay. This implies that the financial leverage and the high bank interest rate are significant factors in influencing the economic risk and return of the wind farm project. This research contributes to the existing literature by highlighting the significance of real options application in the most-sought energy sector – wind farm. Moreover, this will pave way for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the UAE to invest in this energy field.

A general framework for optimal stopping problems with two risk factors and real option applications

AbstractA new explicit solution is obtained for a general class of two‐dimensional optimal stopping problems arising in real option theory. First, the solvable case of homogeneous and quasi‐homogeneous problems is presented in a comprehensive framework. Then the general problem—including the unsolved case of inhomogeneous functions—is considered and an explicit expression for the value function is obtained in terms of a modified Bessel function of second kind. Then we clarify the link between the general solution method and the more elementary one in the specific (quasi‐)homogeneous problem. Finally, this article provides some useful formulas and some insights for the one‐dimensional case as well.

Option Contract Pricing Model for Real Option with Right to Sell/Purchase the Project

The study in the article aims to improve the methodology for calculating the price of an option agreement . The subject is calculating the price of the option agreement for a real option with the right to sell / purchase . The hypothesis is that using a more objective calculation formula will increase the efficiency of making the corporation’s strategic investment and management decisions . The method of mathematical modelling is used to refine the methodology for calculating the price of an option agreement within the framework of the ways of real options and discounting cash flows . The article justifies and clarifies the calculation formulas for the price of an option agreement for a real option with the right to sell / purchase . It has been shown that an objective assessment of the value of this option is a powerful tool for making a strategic investment decision . The article’s novelty is the combination of the practice of hedging standards for transactions and methods of real options and discounting cash flows when developing a model for calculating the price of an agreement . The application of a more objective pricing formula for an options contract , limited to the specified project profitability index , confirms the hypothesis . A more objective assessment of the effectiveness of projects with the application of real options is a competitive advantage of the corporation due to the ability to benefit further from risk and uncertainty . The direction of future research is the formalization of the option pricing model for calculating net assets .

The Application of Real Option in Corporate Investment

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Synchronizing decisions: A dynamic programming, real option framework for New Product Development with stage-to-stage correlations

Much research has investigated the application of real options to staged, new product development projects. Still, this literature has not addressed an important intuition�that bad projects may stay bad. A new product development project or a technology startup backed venture capital may include stage-to-stage dependencies. Its �state� at one gate may influence the transition probabilities at later gates. We develop a novel real option model that captures this intuition using dynamic programming and serial correlations. In a subsequent paper, we introduce partial derivatives similar to the Greeks that we named �control maps�. These control maps will assist the firm�s management to assess the financial impact of resource reallocations to project success factors. Such reallocations have the intent of turning bad projects into good ones. Thus, the proposed framework enables management to synchronize its management decision with financial ones.

Real options appraisal for a reactive CSR strategy: the case of Facebook

The present research values reactive corporate social responsibility (CSR) policies using the theory of Real Options (RO). Its main goals are to determine the role of RO methodology as a business risk hedging function on reactive CSR strategies and to analyse whether the application of RO adds value to companies with reactive CSR strategies. The study illustrates Facebook’s reactive CSR policy and also demonstrates that RO can be used serve to hedge market risk (systematic risk), just like their equivalents in the financial markets but also to hedge business risks (non-systematic risk). In addition, it shows that despite the criticism that the use of reactive CSR strategies may arouse, they have a positive impact on the market when used at the right time in companies that do not have a brand positioning closely linked to CSR. Additionally, the article shows that decision-making is a fundamental part of managerial functions and whether the situation is considered as a structured or unstructured problem will determine the action to be taken. In this particular case the reactive CSR strategy relates to waiting as an outcome of a planned choice.

Flexibility to switch project size: A real option application for photovoltaic investment valuation

Solar energy projects contribute to smart city goals by reducing pollution and assisting cities to become self-sustaining. However, these projects, characterised by their sequential nature, require a huge amount of irreversible investment, especially in the case of large-scale photovoltaic projects (MW). This aspect could make solar projects unattractive for potential investors. To mitigate the risks of financial losses the investor could invest in small-scale solar projects and switch to large-scale investment projects only if the market conditions are favourable. This paper aims to embed this managerial flexibility of changing investment size during the project lifetime into its valuation. To accomplish this, we use a compound options approach with a switch and call options models to reliably price these projects by considering their riskiness and, their stochastic and multi-stage nature. We also consider the determination of the optimal investment time like an American option. We also propose a case study that shows that considering the managerial flexibility value in the project valuation makes them attractive and financially profitable.

Valuing Collaborative Synergies with Real Options Application: From Dynamic Political Capabilities Perspective

This paper aims to justify propositions that the dynamic political capabilities of collaborative partners to manage their institutional contexts are important drivers of collaborative synergies which can be valued by real options. To date, the institutional context of collaborative corporate strategies (strategic alliances, mergers, and acquisitions), particularly the analysis of the influence of government agencies on the synergies or unrealized synergies of collaborative ventures, remains unexplored. Moreover, the interdependence between the institutional dimensions of the collaborative strategies, the dynamic political capabilities of the collaborating partners, and collaborative synergies are needed to be integrated into new conceptual models and a new framework. This paper contributes to this request by providing a cohesive framework of micro-foundations with dynamic political capabilities and demonstrating an application of simple and compound sequentially combined real options for collaborative synergies’ valuation in the findings and discussion section. This paper makes several theoretical and empirical contributions to international business, strategic management, and corporate finance. The practical implication of the research is evidence that food retailers who want to grow with the latest consumer trends will need dynamic political capabilities to deal with the impact of an institutional context. Finally, this paper discusses research limitations and future work.

Measuring Synergies of Banks’ Cross-Border Mergers by Real Options: Case Study of Luminor Group AB

Applying the real options valuation to measure merger and acquisition (M&A) synergy is highly debatable, with questions arising from the usefulness of this approach in real-world settings. Understanding the full benefits (and possible limits) of real options applications to measure synergy in cross-border merger activities remains a challenge. The main objective of the paper is to explore multiple types of synergies in the recent, highly strategic cross-border merger—the Luminor Group AB deal—and to value those synergies with the real options application. The research found that the sum of values of different types of synergies in M&A deals as the market value added provided by this deal could be valued with real options applications. A real options application may serve as a decision-making tool and at the same time be a useful valuation method of M&A deal synergies. The implications of this paper are twofold. First, the research contributes to corporate financing by providing relevant synergy measurement models in M&A deals. Second, the paper contributes to “grand challenges’’ research topics of international businesses by illustrating how a group of multinational banks solved the problem of income inequality across countries, and balanced inequality within their networks through a cross-border merger.

Optimized Expansion Strategy for a Hydrogen Pipe Network in the Port of Rotterdam with Compound Real Options Analysis

The port of Rotterdam is the largest seaport in Europe. To maintain its position, the harbor will have to anticipate global transitions such as transferring to sustainable energy. Hydrogen is seen as a promising energy carrier; however, future demand is uncertain. The current research investigates decision making under uncertainty and values flexibility. Compound real options analysis is applied to optimize the time-variant expansion strategies for a hydrogen pipe network. The trade-off between early investments and missed revenues when not investing in time determines the optimized expansion strategy. Moreover, the real options approach also provides the levelized unit price for hydrogen distribution, to cover the life cycle costs of the optimal expansion strategy. Finally, this real options approach offers flexibility to a decision maker as it allows for enhancing future decisions. The academic contribution of this research is a distinct perspective on a compound real options approach where the optimal strategic path is the key result of interest. This in contrast to other real options applications in the literature which focus on option value, exchange with limiting the options or do not visualize a strategic path. Moreover, this research demonstrates how stepwise expansion and decision making under uncertainty facilitate transitions such as the transition toward clean energy.

A parameter based approach to single factor stochastic process selection for real options applications

The single factor stochastic diffusion processes most commonly used for Real Options Valuation are the Geometric Brownian Motion and Mean Reversion Models. Nonetheless, the choice of process to model asset price dynamics is still one of the main challenges for researchers and practitioners in the field. Particularly, in investment projects where there is significant managerial flexibility, the project value and the investment rule may depend in large part on the process used to model the underlying uncertainties. In this article, we develop an approach based on the parameter values of the model, which has some advantages over the methods currently used for stochastic process selection. We use the half-life and normalized variance of the time series to be modeled to determine the optimal choice and discuss related theoretical as well as practical issues concerning the application of this approach to real options valuation. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the method, and a guideline for implementation of this approach is provided.

Exploring the Link of Real Options Theory with Dynamic Capabilities Framework in Open Innovation-Type Merger and Acquisition Deals

Although it is well established that acquisition-based dynamic capabilities have important consequences for merger and acquisition (M&A) processes, direct evidence on how real option applications can measure a dynamic capability-based synergy in open innovation-type M&A deals has been scarce. This study draws from seminal research on real options theory to explore some of these benefits and limits to value a synergy in one recent highly strategic acquisition. To strengthen the identification of causal effects, the paper develops the proposition that justifies the role of dynamic capabilities as antecedents of the success of open innovation-type M&A deals in the ICT industry and demonstrates real options’ application to measure M&A synergies. To test the internal and external validity of the proposition, the explorative case study on Samsung’s acquisition of Harman International Industries was analyzed and interpreted. This study contributes important empirical evidence to bear on the literature on open innovation theory, dynamic capabilities framework, and real options theory.

Valuing Dynamic Capabilities-Based Synergies with Real Options

Acquisition-based dynamic capabilities have become well established as a new imperative for organizing mergers and acquisitions (M&A) processes. However, understanding the full benefits and possible limits of real options applications to measure a dynamic capability-based synergy in M&A deals remains a challenge. This paper draws on real options theory to explore some of these benefits and limits to value a synergy in two highly strategic M&A deals. More specifically, the author develops the proposition that justifies the role of dynamic capabilities as antecedents of the success of M&A deals in the information and communications technology industry and demonstrates real options application to measure M&A synergies.

A Tutorial for Modeling Real Options Lattices from Project Cash Flows

ABSTRACT Context: several methods for evaluating real options have been extensively studied and published. But recombining binomial trees, known as lattices, are perhaps one of the most practical and intuitive approaches to model uncertainty and price project managerial flexibilities for real options applications. Although the Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein (1979) lattice model is simple to implement for financial options, modeling real options lattices requires a different approach such as the one proposed by Copeland and Antikarov (2001), which considers project cash flows as dividends in the lattice model. Objective: in this tutorial, we propose a code in an open-source software with intuitive guidelines to help researchers and practitioners model real options lattices from project cash flows. Method: our code considers the correct project’s volatility estimation, dividend yield modeling, and lattice building. Results: the results show how real options can affect the value of projects. Conclusions: as a contribution, this tutorial provides a simple mechanism for analyzing investment opportunities in projects that have uncertainty and flexibility.

Real option applications in megaproject planning: trends, relevance and research gaps. A literature review

ABSTRACT Megaprojects are complex and contain multiple risks and uncertainties. The dominant ‘predict and control’ planning method mainly ignores risks and uncertainties, making megaprojects inflexible and vulnerable to unforeseen changes. Insights and methods from real options theory (ROT) in economics and finance have the potential to improve planning of megaprojects in three ways: (a) better management and assessment of risks and uncertainties, (b) a more transparent and explicit identification and communication of risks and uncertainties, and (c) a monetary valuation of flexibility. An in-depth literature review of 42 papers of real options applications to megaprojects serves as a benchmark to analyse if current real options literature meets these three expectations. Through this review, we identify the main trends, relevance and research gaps. While its theoretical relevance is illustrated, three main gaps impede real options’ practical relevance for megaprojects: the applications paint an incomplete picture of megaprojects; its mathematical complexity; and the lack of empirical evidence of real-life cases. Based on a plea for more interactive research between scholars and planning practitioners, we provide an agenda for further research as to how ROT can better meet its expectations and fulfill its potential for the planning of megaprojects.

Do Synergies Pop up Magically in Digital Transformation-Based Retail M&A? Valuing Synergies with Real Options Application

This paper aims to explore and to illustrate success factors of reciprocal synergies of digital transformation-based merger and acquisition (M&A) deals in the grocery retail industry. The author carried out a case study on the merger of Ahold Delhaize in 2016. The paper’s contribution is a conceptual model of research that helps in pre-acquisition analysis on competence-based synergies in M&A to value strategic synergies as market value added a using real options application. By combining qualitative and quantitative research methods, the author provides empirical evidence to indicate the validity and value of the proposed research framework for both scholars and practitioners alike.