Apennine Region Research Articles

Unveiling the role of family and community nurses: insights from an Italian Focus Group Study

This qualitative study examines the potential role of Family and Community Nurses (FCNs) in an Italian Local Health Authority (LHA) context, aiming to identify unmet healthcare needs and facilitate the integration of FCNs into the healthcare system. Focus Group (FG) sessions involving healthcare professionals from three centers in the Emiliano–Romagnolo Apennines region revealed shared concerns about unaddressed healthcare needs, caregiver support inadequacies, service accessibility barriers, and the importance of enhanced interprofessional collaboration. Participants highlighted vulnerable populations, such as the frail and chronically ill, as those requiring more comprehensive care. The study identified key areas where FCNs could be instrumental, including monitoring complex medication regimens for elderly individuals, supporting caregivers, empowering vulnerable individuals, providing education, facilitating service access, and fostering collaboration among healthcare professionals. It emphasized the significance of multidisciplinary teamwork while maintaining clear role distinctions for FCNs. Further research is needed to assess the effectiveness and economic implications of FCN integration. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and organizations to promote FCN utilization, aligning with the World Health Organization's emphasis on primary healthcare and catering to the needs of individuals, families, and communities.

An updated checklist of the bryophytes of Italy, including the Republic of San Marino and Vatican City State

The present contribution offers an updated inventory of recorded bryophyte species for Italy, providing the regional distribution for each one. The checklist is based on literature data, revision of bryological collections from several Italian and foreign institutional or private herbaria and recent observations and reports. Five categories based on Natural Breaks have been identified to highlight the floristic diversity between the administrative regions. The checklist includes 1273 taxa (1220 species, 17 subspecies and 36 varieties). Among these, hornworts and liverworts are represented by 301 species, 5 subspecies and 4 varieties, grouped into 99 genera and 55 families, while mosses total 919 species, 12 subspecies and 32 varieties, grouped into 259 genera and 77 families. Such data is presented by a table distinguishing their presence before and after 1968, as well as indicating dubious species based on information relating to bibliographic data. Critical notes on distribution and taxonomy are included and, for ease of reference, synonyms are given for each species. In the last three years, the bryoflora of Italy has increased by 29 taxa. The analysis of the data showed that the regions with the highest peaks of the Alpine chain are the ones with the greatest biodiversity. Among the Apennine regions, Tuscany is the most floristically rich. Sardinia and Sicily have medium levels of biodiversity, favoured by their geomorphological diversity and insularity. For some regions, the low bryophyte richness is linked to the lack of research. Furthermore, the trend of scientific publications on bryophytes over the last 200 years is highlighted.

All the People of Israel Are Friends: An Unknown Mid-Fifteenth Century Earthquake in the Marche Region (Central Italian Apennines) Recorded in a Coeval Hebrew Manuscript

Abstract Although the Italian seismic catalogs are considered among those with the best historical completeness, for periods prior to the Modern era they have gaps, often concentrated in limited regions. For example, Marche, a central Apennine region with high seismicity level, lacks any macroseismic observations throughout the entire fifteenth century. The chance discovery of a destructive earthquake summarized in a note written on a Hebrew prayer manuscript from 1446, not only helps us partially fill a gap in the seismic history of Italy but also prompts us to reflect on how much we still do not know about seismogenesis even in times covered by written sources.

Provenance and deposition of a lithified volcanic-rich layer (VRL-5.5) at 5.5 Ma from Central Apennines (Italy)

Two slightly lithified volcanic rich layers (VRL) (former tephra) SVT-2 (San Vittorino) and CAC (Castiglione a Casauria) were sampled from two distinct post-evaporitic Messinian stratigraphic sections (Abruzzo, Central Italy). They crop only few tens of km apart and are predominantly massive, although some specimens show sedimentary structures. Both VRLs were investigated for the first time by field, mesoscopic, X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD), transmission optical microscopy (TOM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), bulk composition, electron-microprobe analysis (EMPA) and quantitative textural attributes by image analysis. The XRPD analysis detects the presence of a glass phase, plus few (< 2 area %) magmatic-like feldspars, clinopyroxene and biotite and stratigraphically variable sedimentary minerals such as calcite, dolomite, illite and montmorillonite (from 0 to 40 area %). The 2D image analysis performed on SEM microphotographs reveals that both sections are composed of very fine glass shards, magmatic minerals are never isolated, whilst the carbonate crystals mainly fill voids among volcanic particles. Both these VRLs have identical rhyolitic glass compositions that closely overlap with those of previously-studied coeval and stratigraphically related sections occurring in the northern Apennine region and dated as 5.5 Ma. The 2D textural features of glassy particles (length, width, aspect ratio, grain-size distribution, MZ , σi, SKi, KG and roundness) in both SVT-2 and CAC sections are very similar and also close to the northern section of Camporotondo (Marche region). The outcomes provided here indicate that SVT-2 and CAC sections represent the southernmost distal deposits of the same large eruption that occurred about 5.5 Ma (VRL-5.5). They result from distal fallout of tephra through seawater, occasionally remobilised under low energy and localised conditions, especially in the uppermost part of the CAC section. All the VRL-5.5 rocks are probably related to a very large eruption that occurred in the Carpathian-Pannonian magmatic district. The analytical protocols used in this study can be useful to investigate other ancient volcanic-rich layers, corresponding to lithified tephra.

A payment scheme for the ecosystem services of mountain grasslands embedded in dairy products

Mountain pastures and meadows have been disappearing at a steady pace from the Italian Alpine and Apennine regions for the last century. Livestock farms and pastoral activities have traditionally contributed to preserving them, but they are facing increasingly adverse socio-economic and climatic trends The aim of the paper is to explore the economic feasibility of a payment scheme for grassland-based ecosystem services embedded into locally produced dairy products that can compensate farmers' effort and increase their profitability. Using the method of discrete choice experiments, we estimate Italian consumers’ willingness to pay for a set of selected attributes of mountain cheese associated with provisioning, cultural, and existence ecosystem services. Our results indicate that consumers would be willing to pay cheese 4€/kg to 6€/kg more for each increase in the level of ecosystemic attributes, thus supporting the introduction of a payment scheme as a local and scalable policy intervention.

Assessment of current reservoir sedimentation rate and storage capacity loss: An Italian overview

Sedimentation has a prominent impact on the functionality and lifetime of reservoirs and is a growing concern for stakeholders. Various parameters influence sedimentation caused by soil erosion. Here we have examined fifty Italian reservoirs to determine sedimentation rates and storage capacity loss. The reservoirs studied have an average age of 78 years as of 2021, with the highest loss of capacity observed, equal to 100%, for Ceppo Morelli. For the fifty Italian catchments covering north, south, central and islands of Italy, we found the mean annual sediment yield varying between 17–4000 m3/km2. year. Six of fifty reservoirs studied (Quarto, Colombara, Ceppo Morelli, Fusino, Vodo and Valle di Cadore) are already in a very critical situation in terms of storage capacity loss. Out of the fifty reservoirs, half of them will reach their half-life year by 2050. For example, for the Fusino reservoir located in northern Italy, we observed a loss of 90% of the storage volume as of 2020 with respect to its operation year 1974, compared to 6% in 2015 as available in literature. Modelling the sediment delivery ratio (SDR) is an open question, due to the lack of adequate data and uncertainties about the variability in hydrological, geomorphological, climate and landcover parameters. Here, we addressed the issue with a simplified multiple regression approach based on sediment delivery ratio values retrieved by the RUSLE model. We found different multi regressions for reservoirs belonging to the Alpine and Apennine regions. This analysis offers a starting point for the management and prioritization of adaptation and remediation policies necessary to address reservoir sedimentation.

Statistical precursors of a strong earthquake on April 6, 2009 on the Apennine Peninsula

The article discusses the possibility of formulating a conclusion about the transition in early April 2009 to an exceptional state of the geophysical system in an area with a radius of about several hundred kilometers from Rome. This fact preceded the tragic earthquake on April 6, 2009, which led to large casualties in the Italian city of L’Aquila. This conclusion was obtained based on an analysis of the statistics of the critical frequency of the ionosphere. In the course of calculations, in particular, phenomena with a high degree of determinism that preceded the specified seismic event were detected. The fact of their existence with a high probability indicates the occurrence of an exclusive state of the regional geophysical system in the period of about several days before this event. It was depicted that the identified phenomena precede a significant number of seismic events. Based on the analysis of variations in the statistics of the critical frequency of the ionosphere in the Apennine region in 2007–2011, including those preceding the earthquake near the city of L’Aquila on April 6, 2009, an algorithm was formulated to detect a significant probability of transition to an exclusive state of the corresponding local segment of the geophysical system. The approach proposed in the article can be used to compile a short-term that is, calculated for the coming days, forecast of the existence of a significant probability of the occurrence of seismic events of large magnitude in various regions of the world.

Biogeography and shape of fungal fairy rings in the Apennine mountains, Italy

AbstractAimFungal ‘fairy rings’ (FRs) are regular bands of vegetation caused by a centrifugal expansion of fungal mycelia. It is well established that FR fungi affect both soil chemistry and microbiome, but nothing is known about the distribution of these patterns at the regional scale. Here, we assess the abundance and occurrences of different FR shapes i.e. rings, arcs and rotors, and explore their association with geomorphology and climate.LocationThe Apennine Mountains, 300‐km latitudinal gradient along the Italian Peninsula.TaxonBasidiomycetous fungi.MethodsHigh‐resolution freely available images were gathered to study FR shapes and distribution in the Apennine region of Italy. First, 12 mountains with different elevations and geomorphology were studied to assess the colonial density and relative distribution of FR type. FR distribution and shape and size of additional 616 FRs were studied in 61 study sites and relationship with selected climatic and topographic variables were assessed using different modelling approaches.ResultsOverall, 1163 FR structures were found across the study area. Arcs were the most common shape followed by rings. Rotors were rare, accounting for less than 2% of all observations. Fungal colony density varied largely both among and within sites, averaging 6.7 arcs, 2.2 rings and only 0.1 rotors per ha. On average, arcs (18.8 m) were similar in size compared to rotors (18.4 m) whilst rings were smaller (11.7 m). Arcs presented a higher frequency of occurrence on steeper slopes whilst rings were mostly found on flat and moderate slopes. FRs occurred within the altitudinal range between 546 m and 2148 m a.s.l., corresponding to temperatures between 3.4 and 12.7°C and rainfall between 1100 and 1300 mm per year.Main ConclusionsFRs are common elements of the Apennine grassland landscape where they may contribute to the maintenance of plant and microbial diversity. Better systematic identification of the fungal species involved in the formation of FRs is required. Further research that combines long‐term field manipulative experiments and modelling work would help to explain the formation of rings, arcs and rotors during the ontogenetic development of fungal fronts.

Coupled hydro-mechanical analysis of the effects of medium depth drainage trenches mitigating deep landslide activity

Mitigation measures aimed at reducing the landslide hazard often consists of drainage systems, in particular when the piezometric regime in the slope is identified as an internal factor predisposing the landslide to fail, the latter is very often the case when weather-induced landslides are dealt with.In the past such mitigation measure has been considered eligible solely for shallow landslide mechanisms. However, some authors have reported that the variation in piezometric regime at large depth becomes no more negligible if a medium depth drainage trench system is installed.Nonetheless, the efficacy of a drainage trench system is often hard to quantify because of the high-level computation process that needs to be undertaken, since it has to include, in principle, several parameters describing the saturated-partially saturated hydro-mechanical behaviour of the material as well as all the processes occurring when interacting with the vegetation and the weather; this is even more complicated due to the geological history and the resulting geo-hydro-mechanical (GHM) context to deal with. As such, the determination of the efficiency of a drainage system represents still an open issue in the engineering practice, since this issue relates to a transient hydro-mechanical (HM) boundary value problem. Very often the design of such mitigation measures has been pursued by using design-charts determined under simplified hypotheses.In this paper, the effects of implementing the geological history of the slope of reference, representative of a widely spread landslide mechanism type across the GHM context dealing with, have been investigated on the drains-induced transient seepage, being computed by means of advanced fully coupled two-dimensional HM numerical modelling. The HM numerical analyses reported in this contribution address to a reference case study in the Eastern sector of the Southern Apennines region, which has been selected as prototype landslide in the assessment of the stabilization efficacy of deep drainage trench systems.

Малая надгробная надпись Гвидо и Рикардо пизанского Дуомо

The research objective is as follows: relying on the analysis of minor inscriptions on the facade of Pisa Cathedral, local chronographic sources, documents from the archive of Pisa Cathedral, archive of Archdiocese of Pisa, the author tries to identify Guido and Ricardo mentioned in the epitaph. Scientific originality of the study lies in the fact that the researcher introduces into scientific circulation a minor epitaph of the XII century, an element of Pisa Cathedral epigraphy, provides biographic data on the persons mentioned, which deepens the existing knowledge on the development of epigraphic tradition of Central-Northern Apennine region in the XII-XIII centuries. The research findings are as follows: the author identifies Guido and Ricardo mentioned in the epitaph, reconstructs the circumstances of its creation, reveals its synthetic nature, notes that the epitaph occupies an intermediate position between Damasian and non-Damasian segments of an early medieval mausoleum, reveals the role of this type of inscriptions in the formation and development of Apennine funerary epigraphy of the XV-XVII centuries.

Depth-Dependent Shear-Wave Attenuation in Central Apennines, Italy

We used 1029 earthquakes, with magnitudes ranging from M 3.0 to M 6.5, located in central Apennines, Italy, and recorded by 414 local stations to study the variation of the quality factor QS of shear waves with depth. We first determined average nonparametric attenuation functions in the frequency band from 0.5 to 20 Hz and hypocenter distances less than 155 km to correct the observed acceleration spectra for attenuation effects. Then, we separated source and site effects from the corrected spectral records to determine the changes of QS with depth. We used a 1D local shear-wave velocity model to calculate the travel times of the source-station paths, and we inverted the observed spectra to determine QS in three different depth intervals (0–4 km, 4–10 km and 10–15 km) and five frequencies (0.5, 1, 4, 10 and 20 Hz). We found that QS increases with frequency at all depths considered and tends to have lower values at shallow depths. The average value of QS is consistent with previous studies made in central Italy and can be approximated by QS = 43f0.94. To describe the frequency dependence of QS with depth (H), we determine the following relations: QS = 5.5f1.39, 0.5 ≤ f ≤ 10 Hz and QS = 151.5, f > 10 Hz for 0–4 km, QS = 52f0.87 for 4 < H < 10 km and QS = 51f0.92 for 10 ≤ H ≤ 15 km. We conclude that the Q-depth-dependent model can be useful to improve estimates of source parameters and ground motion prediction in the central Apennines region of Italy.

Between oblivion and drastic evidence: How local communities cope with seismic risk by forgetting and remembering

Drawing upon a socio-constructivist perspective, this paper aims to gain insight into how two communities in the Italian Apennines region - differentially exposed to severe earthquakes in the past - remember, understand and plan for seismic phenomena. Avezzano was completely devastated in 1915, while the last significant event in Sulmona dates to 1706. However, both communities have indirectly experienced recent serious seismic events (e.g., L'Aquila earthquake in 2009 and Amatrice earthquake in 2016) as well as directly experienced lesser local tremblors. Interviews with citizens (N = 37) and stakeholders (N = 18) were conducted in the two cities and content-analysed with the support of NVivo software. The results show substantial differences in how respondents understand seismic events, access this information and prepare preventive strategies depending on their place of residence and role. The Avezzano community shares a more detached view, while the Sulmona community gives a more concerned picture. Moreover, the stakeholders tend to present an optimistic scenario, while citizens express a more critical viewpoint. Overall, the interview contents may be organised around two main oppositions: fatalism vs. empowerment in the face of an earthquake threat; and the will to forget about this risk vs. the need to remember it. The positioning on these two oppositions is defined by psychological, social and structural characteristics of individuals, and give rise to different representations of seismic risk and management. Such representations have practical implications for how the issue is addressed and faced in the communities' everyday life.

Towards the Understanding of Hydrogeochemical Seismic Responses in Karst Aquifers: A Retrospective Meta-Analysis Focused on the Apennines (Italy)

Earthquakes are known to affect groundwater properties, yet the mechanisms causing chemical and physical aquifer changes are still unclear. The Apennines mountain belt in Italy presents a rich literature of case studies documenting hydrogeochemical response to seismicity, due to the high frequency of seismic events and the presence of different regional aquifers in the area. In this study, we synthesize published data from the last 30 years in the Apennine region in order to shed light on the main mechanisms causing earthquake induced water changes. The results suggest the geologic and hydrologic setting specific to a given spring play an important role in spring response, as well as the timing of the observed response. In contrast to setting, the main focal mechanisms of earthquake and the distance between epicenter and the analyzed springs seems to present a minor role in defining the response. The analysis of different response variables, moreover, indicates that an important driver of change is the degassing of CO2, especially in thermal springs, whereas a rapid increase in solute concentration due to permeability enhancement is observable in different cold and shallow springs. These findings also leave open the debate regarding whether earthquake precursors can be recognized beyond site-specific responses. Such responses can be understood more comprehensively through the establishment of a regional long-term monitoring system and continuous harmonization of data and sampling strategies, achievable in the Apennine region through the set-up of a monitoring network.

Three-dimensional numerical simulation of the interseismic and coseismic phases associated with the 6 April 2009, Mw 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake (Central Italy)

Although several observations have been reported in the literature before a strong earthquake, their relation with the forthcoming event is often controversial. Since many physical processes and parameters govern the dynamics of preparation, initiation, and occurrence of earthquakes, their understanding is essential for explaining anomalous seismological, geophysical, hydrological and geodetic signals before a strong earthquake that may be considered for seismic monitoring and hazard assessment.In this work, the interseismic and coseismic stress and strain fields associated with the 6 April 2009, Mw 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake are calculated via a 3D numerical model designed to simulate the crustal interseismic loading and the coseismic brittle episodic dislocation along the fault. The model adopts a framework of gravitational and tectonic forces that are compatible with the geodynamics of the Central Apennines region of the Italian territory. The model assumes a brittle upper crust, where the fault has stick-slip behaviour, and a plastic deeper crust, where the fault is in stationary creep.The results indicate that the concurrent action of gravitational and tectonic forces determines steep interseismic stress gradients at the transition between the creeping and locked fault planes that promote the coseismic subsidence of the hanging wall. The interseismic strain above the transition between that locked upper fault and its unlocked lower shear zone develops a dilated volume in the hanging wall and a contracted volume in the footwall. These stress and strain variations are compatible with seismological, geophysical and geodetic anomalies observed before the earthquake, i.e., Vp/Vs anomalies and location of foreshocks. Interseismic stress and strain patterns invert during the coseismic stage. The dilated volume, formed during the interseismic phase, will be contracted at the coseismic stage and, conversely, the footwall volume previously contracted will be expanded.

Две малые надписи пизанского Дуомо: новое прочтение и реинтерпретация эпиграфических памятников

The article introduces a new interpretation of inscriptions on Pisa Cathedral facade. The author’s interpretation differs from commonly adopted interpretations developed by the West European researchers in special source study works and in general works on art history. The paper presents results of studying minor inscriptions on Pisa Cathedral facade, basically associated with the spacious necropolis apud Domum, which existed till the XIV century. Scientific originality of the research lies in the fact that for the first time in domestic medieval studies, the author introduces two minor inscriptions of the XII century (an element of Pisa Cathedral epigraphy) into scientific circulation, which are important both for understanding the epigraphic tradition development in the Northern Apennine region in the XIII-XV centuries, as well as for understanding political discourse and, more generally, ideology of urban communities and instruments of its realization. The research findings are as follows: the author introduces a new interpretation of a certain element of Lanberti’s epitaph, proposes a new interpretation of decorative composition with an anthropomorphic figure, reconsiders general value of this epigraphic monument, examines the place of the analysed monuments in the epigraphic tradition of the Northern Apennine region, identifies their historical value.

Calanchi badlands reconstructions and long-term change detection analysis from historical aerial and UAS image processing

In Italy, highly dissected badlands may be found widespread (over the entire Apennine region) and are locally described as “calanchi” (singular: “calanco”). Accelerated geomorphic processes led to the rapid evolution of these erosional landunits with intense drawbacks on agriculture, infrastructure and society. Historical aerial photographs (HAP) of such badland areas exist worldwide. To reconstruct the past surface and related topographic changes offers high potential for the assessment of long-term topographic changes of many interesting landscapes. Due to technical and conceptual demands of traditional photogrammetry those photographs have been used comparable little in long-term geomorphology. Processing them with user-friendly SfM-MVS photogrammetry would provide a new perspective on the assessment of long-term erosion rates on the catchment and slope scale and the related badland evolution. Therefore, this multi-temporal approach focusses on the appliance of SfM-MVS photogrammetry in order to reconstruct the past landscape and to calculate the related long-term surface changes of a badland located in the upper Val d’Orcia (Tuscany, Italy). The analysis is based on a set of high-resolution UAV images (2016) and two sets of historical aerial images of varying quality and scale (1976 and 1994). Digital elevation models (DEMs), shaded relief raster, several morphometric parameters and DEMs of difference (DoD) (resolution: 1 m) were used to obtain overall terrain changes and to calculate sediment balances and annual surface change rates on catchment and slope scale. Change detection analysis revealed a mean surface lowering of 0.01 m*a–1 (1976–2016) on the catchment scale and 0.03 m*a–1 (1976–1994) to 0.06 m*a–1 (1994–2016) on the slope scale. Our results further show a reduced activity of fluvial erosion processes from the mid 90s’ on while mass movements dominating the topographic changes in the second half of the 40 years observation period. Erosion processes are enhanced near the tear-off edges of the lateral valleys. Deposition mainly occurs in the main valley floor which can be classified as a temporary sediment sink/store. The geomorphic development of the catchment indicates a self-stabilizing behaviour towards an equilibrium state. A reduction of the mean slope gradient in the main valley from 25° in 1976 to 14° in 2016 confirms the self-stabilizing theory. The study also revealed the potential and limitations of historical aerial images for long-term geomorphic change detection and showed that SfM-MVS algorithms operate less reliable when applied to only a few images (n=3) of a singular flightline. Nevertheless, the good agreement of our results with the long term rates obtained by other authors with different methods/techniques and different time scales proof the great potential of historical aerial photographs for 3D surface reconstructions (SfM-MVS) of semi-arid badlands when ceratin quality parameters, mainly high image overlaps and entropy, are fulfilled.

Central Italian “Tabernacula”: A Survey

This paper aims to provide an in-depth survey of grand-scale medieval Italian tabernacles and other types of closing altarpieces with all of their wings – or substantial parts thereof – still preserved (1200-1435). Most such altarpieces, enclosing a statue of the Virgin Mary or a Saint, come from the culturally homogeneous and generally conservative regions of the Central Apennines, in particular from Abruzzo. Structure, provenance, original location, function, patronage, iconography are only a few of the many questions raised by the surviving examples here discussed within a broader European frame.Notwithstanding the great variety and composite character of medieval altar furnishings, three major types of medieval Italian closing retables will be here described – according to Claude Lapaire’s formal classification (1969 and 1972): the tabernacle-altarpiece in the strict sense of the word, i.e. an open ciborium with the pedestal, rear wall, and canopy, equipped with carved or painted bi-fold wings; the polygonal tabernacle-altarpiece (“le retable à tabernacle polygonal”); and the cupboard-altarpiece (“le retable en forme d’armoire”). In Central Apennine regions all of these types coexisted throughout the fourteenth century at least, resisting the spread of Tuscan polyptychs.

Cycle Tourism as a Driver for the Sustainable Development of Little-Known or Remote Territories: The Experience of the Apennine Regions of Northern Italy

One form of cycle tourism can be represented features tourism that focuses on the relation between biking and the discovery of a territory. Geared toward forms of holiday that allow for the low consumption of natural resources and a connection with the landscape, cycle tourism represents a concrete expression of sustainable tourism. As an emerging phenomenon in Italy, cycle tourism requires further understanding in order to identify methods of development and applicable business models. The aim of this paper is to explore the characteristics of cycle tourism’s development in northern Italy in order to identify the links that exist between sustainability and the group of cycle tourists who prefer to spend their holidays discovering little-known or remote territories. For this study, we selected three different destinations in sensitive mountain areas that converge on the common goal to use cycling to rejuvenate the tourism sector. It has been found that the development of cycle tourism in areas not characterized by mass tourism, such as those considered here, is economically, socially, and environmentally beneficial. The business models through which cycle tourism usually develops include a bottom up approach or a top down approach, involving the cooperation of several local destination stakeholders.

Effects of environmental factors on seed germination and seedling establishment in bilberry ( Vaccinium myrtillus L.)

Abstract The bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus L.) is a spontaneous dwarf shrub with potential for national and international markets due to food and medicinal uses of its fruits, being considered an important source of sugars, antioxidants, vitamins and minerals. Request for bilberry fruits are on the rise, but the land area covered in bilberry bushes and locally collected berries have declined in Central Italian Apennine regions in recent last decades. The objective of this study was to assess the most suitable conditions for in vivo and in vitro seed germination in order to improve the reproductive performance of this species under artificial and controlled environments. Freshly matured bilberry seeds were tested for germination before and after cold stratification and air-room storage under different light conditions and temperatures. Seeds were then in vivo and in vitro germinated on different soil types and culture media. Fresh seeds showed a better germination capacity (76%) than stratified ones, being 16-h photoperiod and air temperatures of 22.5 °C the optimal conditions for germination. At 25 °C the germination rate decreased to 66% and very few seeds (8%) germinated at 15 °C. Darkness always had a negative influence on the germination capacity. However, after cold stratification germination increased significantly at 15 °C, both in light (51%) and darkness (24%); thus, seeds of this species are conditionally dormant at maturity. Although the effect was different depending on temperature and light condition, cold seed stratification had an overall negative effect on all the considered germination parameters, and seed viability was strongly reduced after storage at room temperature for 90 days. Soil type and culture media did not significantly affect the final germination percentage (≈62 and 78%) in the in vivo and in vitro trials performed on fresh non stratified seeds, respectively. Nevertheless V. myrtillus turf (in vivo experiment) and modified MS medium (in vitro experiment) gave rise to the most germination in the shortest time. Temperature proved to be the most influential physical factor on bilberry seed germination. Seedlings obtained from in vivo experiments showed good development.

EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY TIME-DEPENDENT HAZARD MODELS

This presentation outlines methodological aspects of earthquake forecasting. The recurring debates concerning predictability of earthquakes clearly show how this problem is centred on the difficulty of systematically testing the numerous methodologies that in the years have been proposed and sustained by the supporters of prediction. This difficulty starts, sometimes, from the lack of a quantitative and rigorous definition of the concerned precursor, and other times from the lack of continuous observations, upon which statistical analyses could be based. After an introduction concerning the definition of earthquake precursors, the way how to validate forecast hypotheses and the cost associated to their operational application, I give two examples of time-dependent hazard models, for long-term and short-term earthquake forecasts respectively. Considering the long-term forecast modelling, the effect of stress change due to previous historical earthquakes on the probability of occurrence of future earthquakes on neighbouring faults is taken into account. Following a standard methodology developed a couple of decades ago, the probability of occurrence in the next 50 years for a characteristic earthquake on known seismogenic structures can be estimated by a time-dependent renewal model. Then, a physical model for the Coulomb stress change caused by previous earthquakes on these structures is applied. The influence of this stress change on the occurrence rate of characteristic earthquakes is computed taking into account the permanent perturbation (clock advance). The method so developed is applied to the computation of earthquake hazard of the main seismogenic structures recognized in the Southern Apennines region, for which both historical and paleoseismological data are available. A popular short-term time dependent hazard forecast model is the epidemic model. In this model earthquakes are regarded as the realization of a stochastic point process, and their magnitude distribution is described by the Gutenberg-Richter law with a constant b-value. The occurrence rate density is computed by the sum of two terms, one representing the independent, or spontaneous activity, and the other representing the activity induced by previous earthquakes. While the first term depends only on space, the second one is factored into three terms that respectively include the magnitude, time and location of the past earthquakes. An example of application of the epidemic model to the 2009 L’Aquila seismic series is shown.