Apartment Sales Research Articles

Comparative Analysis of Determinants of Seoul Apartment Subscription Competition Rate

This study looked at what factors determine the competition rate for apartment subscriptions by dividing the period into the Moon Jae-in government and the Park Geun-hye government. Logistic regression analysis was conducted by setting purchasing capacity, loan repayment ability, purchase tax, price outlook, selling price, unsold lease, lease rate, government dummy as independent variables and subscription competition rate as subordinate variables. A full-term model, including a dummy of government, and a separate model divided by the current and former government periods were formed to determine if there were any differences in the factors determining the subscription competition rate depending on the period. Dummy variables by the government were significant at 99% confidence levels, showing significant differences in subscription competition rates depending on the government. Depending on the timing of the apartment sale, the factors behind the subscription decision also differed. In the previous Park Geun-hye government, 6 out of 10 variables were significant at the 99% confidence level, including home purchasing capacity, loan repayment ability, purchase tax, sale price, transaction volume and lump-sum housing lease price. This can be interpreted as the principle of self-adjustment in the market played a role as the government minimizes market intervention. On the other hand, it was analyzed that only 2 of the 10 independent variables and the purchasing power index were noted during the Moon Jae-in government period, when the ceiling on the sale of private apartments, the subscription price point system, and the priority supply for the homeless were implemented. If the lump-sum housing lease price rises, the probability of a higher competition rate for subscription has increased, while on the contrary, it has been confirmed that the competition rate for subscription has increased due to a lower purchasing power.

"행복주택 공급이 주변 아파트 매매 및 임차 시장에 미치는 영향: 지역별 분석"

"행복주택 공급이 주변 아파트 매매 및 임차 시장에 미치는 영향: 지역별 분석"

Developing Land and Structure Price Indices for Ottawa Condominium Apartments

AbstractMeasuring the service flow and the stock value of condominium apartments in Canada and decomposing these values into constant quality price and quantity components is important for many purposes. In addition, the System of National Accounts requires that these service flows and stock values for condos be decomposed into constant quality land and structure components. In Canada and most other countries, such a land and structure decomposition of condominium apartment sale prices does not currently exist. In this article, we provide such a decomposition of condominium apartment sales in Ottawa for the period 1996–2009. Specific attention is paid to the roles of communal land and structure space on condominium apartment unit selling prices. Key findings include methods to allocate land and building space to a single condominium unit, identifying the characteristics that best explain condominium prices, and developing an average depreciation rate for condos for the 14-year time period.

Hedonic valuation of apartments in Kenya

PurposeThis paper applies the hedonic pricing model (HPM) approach to identify critical determinants of apartment value and employs the technique to develop a valuation model that can accurately estimate the value of apartments.Design/methodology/approachThe research employed a case study design that was limited to transaction sales and attribute data of apartments in Nyali estate, Mombasa County in Kenya. A sample of 120 sales of apartments obtained from registered real estate firms was analyzed using quantitative methods.FindingsAccording to the study results, the hedonic valuation model developed comprises four critical determinants of apartment value, namely, number of parking lots, presence of swimming pool, age of apartment and provision of balcony. The hedonic model was tested and found to be accurate and reliable in estimating apartment value.Research limitations/implicationsThe model will improve accuracy, reliability and efficiency in valuation. The application of the model in the valuation of apartments is, however, limited to the case study area where the data are obtained. The scope of application of the model may be improved by increasing the sample size to include apartment sales data from other estates in Mombasa County.Originality/valuePrevious studies that have used the HPM technique in analysis of apartment values have focused on the “explanatory” and “contributory” power of attributes on apartment values, rather than the development and use of the model to measure value. The present study is the first to develop a HPM equation for property value estimation in the apartment real estate sector in Kenya.

Government Intervention in Supervising Sale and Purchase Apartments Through Pre-Project Selling Systems in Indonesia

This study aims to determine the importance of government intervention to provide oversight of the sale and purchase apartments with a pre-project selling marketing system. This study uses a doctrinal legal research method that uses a statutory approach and a conceptual approach. The legal materials used are primary legal materials and secondary legal materials which are analyzed deductively and prescriptively. The results of the study explained that even though there had been regulations regarding the sale and purchase of apartments with a pre-project selling system, it turned out that in practice there were still many consumers who suffered losses.This was allegedly due to the absence of sanctions made by the government to overcome the fraudulent developers and the lack of government role in overseeing the process of buying and selling apartments with a pre-project selling system. So that government intervention is needed in buying and selling apartments with a pre-project selling system to meet the occupancy needs of the Indonesian people and protect Indonesian consumers.

조선업 경기 변동이 울산아파트 매매가격에 미치는 영향 분석 연구*

This study analyzes apartment sales prices in Ulsan, the industrial city where many people lost a job from the recession of the shipbuilding industry. The ripple effect of an impact response function was analyzed with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to find the factors like the demographical change for the last few years that influence the apartment price decrease. The apartment sales and Jeonse(lease) price index, the population, the unemployment rate, etc. were used as variables, together with the nationwide shipbuilding industry index. For analysis, monthly data were collected from August 2009 to July 2019. The findings are; unique characteristics like apartment sales and Jeonse price had major impacts. The population and the shipbuilding industry index had a positive (+) effect while the unemployment rate after Term 2 had a negative (–) effect. The finding shows the vicious circle in Ulsan; the recession in the shipbuilding industry caused the unemployment rate to increase, which resulted in the population reduction and eventually made the apartment sales price to drop. The present study may provide useful information that could help to establish a basic urban plan and a master residence plan, considering the changing industrial structure and aging of Ulsan.

Comparative Study on the Prediction of the Apartment Sales Price Index

부동산에 편중되어 있는 가계의 자산구조로 인해 부동산 가격 변동은 국가경제에 큰 영향을 미치게 된다. 주택가격에 대한 정확한 예측은 주택가격의 불확실성을 감소시킬 뿐만 아니라 관련 정책의사결정에 도움을 줄 수 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 2006년 1월부터 2019년 11월까지의 서울 및 6대 광역시 아파트 매매 실거래 가격지수를 대상으로 계량 시계열 모형과 인공신경망 모형을 활용하여 주택가격을 예측하고, 높은 예측력을 지닌 예측모형을 구축하는 데에 있다. 분석결과를 통해 정책적 시사점을 도출하고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 기존의 계량시계열 모형 및 표준 LSTM 모형이외 양방향(Bidirectional) LSTM 및 GRU모형을 추가하여 제시된 모형의 예측력을 비교분석하여 높은 예측력을 지닌 인공신경망 모형을 제시하였다. 실증분석결과 지역에 따라 높은 예측력을 보이는 인공신경망 모형이 다르다는 것을 확인하였다. 지역별로 예측력 높은 인공신경망 모형 구축 후 변수의 추가·삭제와 같은 자유로운 조작을 통해 지역에 적합한 거시경제변수가 주택가격지수에 미치는 효과를 파악하여 원하는 정책효과를 거두는 것이 가능할 것이다.

벡터오차수정모형을 이용한 하위시장별 주택 미분양 영향요인 분석: 경기도와 경상남도의 분양 및 재고시장을 중심으로

벡터오차수정모형을 이용한 하위시장별 주택 미분양 영향요인 분석: 경기도와 경상남도의 분양 및 재고시장을 중심으로

The Functioning of the Real Estate Market: Dynamics of Price Formation and the Sale of Apartments

Purpose: The aim of this publication is to analyse how the dynamics of apartments’ price formation correlates with the development of the apartment market. Design/Methodology/Approach: We analysed data about real estate markets of Polish communes located in Central Pomerania. The values of the analysed indicators were calculated using Excel program and the results were presented in the form of Tables and Figures in Microsoft Excel and ArcMap. Findings: This publication focuses on issues related to price formation on the housing market with the objective to illustrate a correlation between the dynamics of price formation of apartments and the development of the apartment market. This study concentrates on the pricing behaviour of transactions in the primary and secondary real estate markets of apartments. Research results indicate that there is a relationship between the dynamics of price formation and the development of the apartment market in both the primary and secondary markets. The hypotheses have been positively verified. The analysis of the obtained data does not indicate the same tendencies in the transaction prices of the apartment properties in the researched seaside communes in the years 2014-2018. Practical Implications: The most important practical implication is that the analyzed seaside areas still have a large investment space for newer, more expensive and larger apartments. Originality/Value: Research analysis of the two markets shows that the primary market is characterised by a much greater volatility of the average transaction price per sqm of apartment’s usable floor area, while the secondary market is much more stable in terms of the average transaction price. There is also a very large variation in the average price per sqm between the surveyed municipalities.

청약률에 영향을 미치는 아파트 입지조건 : 신문 분양 광고에 나타나는 학세권·역세권·숲세권을 중심으로

청약률에 영향을 미치는 아파트 입지조건 : 신문 분양 광고에 나타나는 학세권·역세권·숲세권을 중심으로

A Study on the Determinants of Unsold Apartments in Integrated Changwon City Using Fixed Effect Model

본 연구는 통합창원시를 중심으로 미분양 아파트에 변화를 일으키는 요인을 분석하고 그중 가장 크게 영향을 미치는 요인은 무엇인가를 분석하는 데 목적을 두었다. 연구결과의 요약은 통합창원시 미분양아파트의 변화는 2016년을 기점으로 이전과 이후에 따라 다른 양상으로 나타났다. 창원시의 2016년 이전에는 아파트매매가격변화율이 큰 영향을 미쳤지만, 창원시의 2016년 이후에는 기존에 허가받았던 2011~2013년 사이의 주택건설인 허가량이 2년6개월∼3년 후 공급으로 반영되면서 부터 창원시 미분양에 가장 큰 영향을 미친 것으로 파악되었다. 또한, 연령별 30대는 소득수준이 낮아 아파트매매, 분양률에는 영향을 미치지 못하고 전 월세에 치중되어 있기에 30대보다는 소득수준이 높은 40대, 50대의 인구수가 늘어가는 것이 아파트 미분양률을 감소시키는 요인이 되었다. 또한 2016년 이전과 달리 2016년 이후 창원시 아파트 미분양에 영향을 미치는 변수들이 다양해진 것으로 보아, 창원시 주택건설인허가실적은 물론 창원시의 인구변화율, 아파트매매가격변화율, 아파트전세가격변화율, 회사채수익률(금리)의 영향력이 2016년 이전보다 커진 것으로 파악되었다.1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to analyze the factors that cause unsold change in Changwon-si and to find out which factors most influence them. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study employed the fixed effect model to achieve the major objectives of this study. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS As an implication of this study, I would like to put great significance in conducting a study on unsold decision models in Changwon-si, Gyeongsangnam-do, which has the most unsold in Korea. In addition, I would like to see that one of the achievements was to be able to identify the differences between the two periods before and after 2016. 2. RESULTS The summary of the study results showed that the change of unsold apartments in Changwon City was different from before and after 2016. Although the change in apartment sales price had a big impact before 2016, the Changwon City s housing construction permits between 2011 and 2013, which were previously granted after 2016, were reflected in supply after 2 years 6 months to 3 years. It was found to have the biggest impact on unsold pre-sale in Changwon City. In addition, unlike 2016, the variables that affect the unsold apartments of Changwon City since 2016 have been diversified. In addition, Changwon City s housing construction permit approval rate, population change rate, apartment sale price change rate, apartment chonsei price change rate, and corporate bond yield rate’s influence is greater than before 2016.

A Study on Improvement of Disclosure Pricing Confirmation using Housing Market and Urban Characteristics

본 연구의 목적은 공시가격에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 지가변동률을 이용하여 공시가격 결정의 문제점에 대한 개선방안을 제언하는데 있다. 연구의 방법으로 지가변동에 영향을 미치는 주택 및 도시 특성요인을 선행연구 등을 통해 파악하고, 지역(서울·수도권, 비수도권)간의 차이를 밝혀 공시가격 결정시 개선방안을 제시하고자 하였다. 본 연구의 분석을 위한 공간적 범위는 전국 228개 시·군·구이며, 시간적 범위는 지가변동률을 포함한 13개의 주택 및 도시 특성변수들로 최근 5년간의 평균값을 사용하였다. 분석은 다중공선성을 제거하기 위한 상관분석과 다중회귀분석을 활용하였다. 분석결과, 지가변동률에 영향을 미치는 유의한 변수로는 서울·수도권의 경우 아파트 분양가격, 청약경쟁률, 인구증가율, 계획적 개발도시 더미, 공동주택 공시가격 더미변수이며, 비수도권은 아파트 분양가격, 청약경쟁률, 인구증가율, 미분양 주택 수, 토지거래 면적, 공동주택 공시가격 더미변수인 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 서울·수도권과 비수도권 지역 간 지가변동 요인에 차이가 존재함을 확인할 수 있었다. 이에 과세의 기준이 되는 공시가격 결정에 대해 지가변동의 지역 간 차이를 반영한 공시가격제도 개선방안이 요구된다는 정책적 시사점을 제시하였다.1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to suggest ways to improve the issue of public price determination using land price volatility rate. To do so, this study attempted to identify the characteristics of housing and urban characteristics that influence land price fluctuations through previous studies and the differences between regions(seoul·metropolitan, and non-capital). And then to suggest an improvement plan for the disclosure price determination. (2) RESEARCH METHOD The spatial range for the analysis of this study was 228 cities, counties, and districts, and the temporal range was used the average value during the last five years on 13 housing and urban characteristic variables including the variability of land price. The analysis used correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis to remove multicollinearity. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS As a result, the statistically significant variables affecting land price volatility were found to be apartment sale price, subscription competition rate, population growth rate, planned developed city(dummy), and public housing listed price(dummy). The non-capital area was found to be the variable of apartment sale price, subscription competition rate, population growth rate, number of unsold homes, land transaction area, and public housing price(dummy). 2. RESULTS As a result, it was confirmed that there are differences in land price fluctuation factors each region such as seoul·metropolitan region, and non-capital regions. In order to determine the published price that is basic of tax, this paper suggest that policy implications and improvement of disclosure pricing system reflecting regional differences on land price fluctuations should be needed.

Bargaining power in apartment sales in Corsica: A latent class approach

This paper extends the bargaining model of Harding et al. (Harding J, Rosenthal S and Sirmans CF (2003) Estimating bargaining power in the market for existing homes, Review of Economics and Statistics 85: 178–188), to a latent class framework. This allows for differences in market power in thin and segmented markets. We estimate a latent class model using data on apartment sales in Corsica over the period 2006 to 2016. Our results indicate that the Corsican housing market has two distinct segments or regimes and that bargaining power of buyers and sellers is not the same in these two segments. In particular, we find that local French residents have strong bargaining power in Regime 1 but non-French residents have weak bargaining power. Regime 2 is characterised by strong bargaining power for local French, Corsican French and non-French participants. Based on auxiliary regressions and a comparison of weighted means associated with each regime, we conclude that compared with Regime 2, the apartments associated with the first regime are more spacious, less likely to be new, more likely to have a garden and typically have longer travel times to local amenities such as doctors, pharmacies and the downtown area. From this we conclude that apartments associated with Regime 1 are more likely to be rural and at a greater distance from the coast. Distance from a city is likely to present an informational disadvantage to non-French residents, who may already face language and legal obstacles.

Sustainable Policy Dynamics—A Study on the Recent “Bust” of Foreign Residential Real Estate Investment in Sydney

We undertook an autopsy of the drivers of individual foreign real estate investment ‘bust’ in Australia through a new theoretical lens of ‘habitus’. Our autopsy data drew contours around the individual foreign real estate capital ‘boom and bust’ cycle, as well as the long-term commitment of professionals in the real estate sector to Australia’s real estate market. More specifically, we showed that the foreign capital ‘boom and bust’ cycle began in earnest in about 2010 (starting at A$8.7 billion), grew to A$72.4 billion in 2016–2017, and then declined to A$12.5 billion in 2017–2018. This decline in foreign capital into Australian real estate occurred within a domestic real estate market in Sydney that also started to slow in 2017. Based on 20 semi-structured interviews with real estate professionals in Sydney and public material culture data, we found out that the off-the-plan apartment sales and global policy landscape changes contributed to the decline of foreign real estate investment in Australia. The three possible implications for Sydney’s future residential real estate development: (1) The loss of investors, (2) the evolution of the labor force, and (3) the diversification of housing products, have been raised as part of a future research road map.

Development of the Conceptual Model for Estimating Apartment Sales Price

In this study, factors affecting the apartment sales rate were selected through review of existing literature and expert advice. Then, the weight of each influence factor was calculated through the survey. In addition, causal maps of each factor on the prevalence rate were drawn to understand the influence relationship of each influential factor. Finally, this study proposes a new apartment sale price calculation method that correctly applies the weights of the influential factors. First, the influencing factors were classified according to apartment size, residential environment, surrounding environment, apartment characteristics, and social environment at the time of purchase. According to the survey results, the main-factors that have the greatest impact on the apartment sale rate are analyzed as surroundings environment, and the main-factor that have the least impact are analyzed as apartment size. Finally, this study proposes a method of estimating the apartment price in the order of 'evaluating each factor, standardization of score using formula, standardized score summation, and determine sale price'. It is important to set the sensitivity of each factor.

DISPUTE SETTLEMENT ON APARTMENT’S TRANSACTION

The sale and purchase transactions of apartments in fact cause many problems between developers and consumers, so that the construction of apartments as the ultimate goal of providing housing is not achieved. This juridical normative research intends to examine a number of decisions regarding cases of disputes settlement over apartments’ unit transactions both through the court and outside the court. The main conclusion of this research is type of dispute over the apartments’ unit transactions (lawsuits qualification) determines the choice of dispute resolution and its consequences.

House prices and relative location

Location is known to be a main determinant in people's efforts to estimate the value of a house. However, the type of location, and subsequently how the value of that location is estimated, has not been investigated to the same degree. In hedonic price modelling, a well-used method of estimating housing as a composite good, locational proxies such as postcodes or census tracts are often used to control for location. This notion of location is what geographers refer to as absolute location, a fixed position in space, as opposed to relative location, a position in space relative to other positions. In this paper, we look at the difference in explanatory power of absolute versus relative location in a hedonic model for apartment sales, using the city of Oslo as our case. The main finding is that the added explanatory power of postcode dummies significantly diminishes when introducing relative location explanatory variables such as walking distance to key places like the metro and parks. As house prices correlate with consumer preferences, these findings will have implications for urban planning insofar as different neighborhood designs vary with respect to their ability to harvest relative location potentials.

The Impact Of Prison Displacement On Apartment Sale Price (A Case Study For Yeongdengpo Old Prison, Seoul)

Locally unwanted land uses (LULUs) impact differently over time. Prison is one of the LULUs that may influence nearby real estate prices. Yeongdengpo Old Prison is located at the center of Seoul, the capital city of South Korea. After the fast urbanization of Seoul, nowadays that area is covered by apartments with more than 10 stories. Therefore, city planners of Seoul designed a new prison location outside the Seoul city. We assessed the apartment prices before the rumor of prison relocation, during the rumor stage, after the public announcement and after the relocation happens. We used average price of apartment sale in 2000, constant price of apartment sales from 2006 to 2012 and the nominal price and transaction prices of apartments from April 2013 to June 2013 for GIS analysis to determine distance effect of the prison within 500m. We used hedonic regression model to test the effects of area, age, unit, and distance from prison of apartments to its prices. The effect of relocation was not big enough compare to the first announcement of the relocation. Therefore, the distance premium mostly effected by the first public announcement of the relocation and the effect gradually diminished until the relocation happen.

Assessment of the Profitability of an Apartment Building Complex Using a Stochastic Cash-Flow

The economic feasibility of apartment building complexes is mainly done by using one of the economic analysis methods: present worth, future worth, annual worth, rate of return, or benefit-cost ratio. The cash-flow used is based on the assumption that a certain fraction of the apartments will be sold during the construction period, and the rest equally sold annually over a certain period of time. This model may work sometimes, but its estimated profitability is inaccurate. The actual cash-flow to be used is stochastic. In this paper, we shall use a cash-flow with random separation time between successive sales of apartments after the construction period. We shall find a compact form of the expected present worth, and determine a range for the annual discount rate so that the project is profitable.

Regional inequality in urban China, allowing for spatial cost of living differences: Evidence from a hedonic analysis of apartment prices

AbstractStudies of inequality in China typically ignore cost of living differences between areas. Under the Balassa–Samuelson effect, nontradeables cost more in richer areas, so nominal inequality exceeds real inequality. This especially matters in China, where spatial cost of living differences should grow with recent development of urban housing markets. We use new data on apartment prices in 104 cities in China to develop housing‐related spatial deflators. The level of spatial inequality in urban China is overstated by 27% if cost of living differences are ignored. Our hedonic analysis of 41,000 individual apartment sales shows that most price variation is between areas, rather than from features of individual apartments. The dominant trend in the reform era is for regional inequality in China to decline, contrary to the common perceptions. In nominal terms, the Theil index for interprovincial inequality in 2016 is just 46% of its 1978 level. The current results imply that the fall in inequality in real terms would be even greater.