Antiretroviral Therapy In South Africa Research Articles

Scale-Up of ART in South Africa Begins to Turn the Tide

Because of the devastating HIV epidemic and the unavailability of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in government clinics and hospitals until 2004, life

The feasibility of using screening criteria to reduce clinic visits for stable patients on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa.

South African HIV care providers are exploring ways to reduce the intensity of patient visits while maintaining high quality of care. We used routinely collected data to model whether a simple screening tool could identify stable patients who would not need to see a doctor during a scheduled medical visit. We identified stable and nonstable visits from January 2007 to September 2011 at a large HIV clinic in Johannesburg, SA. Stable medical visits were defined as having all of the following: stable CD4 count, undetectable viral load, stable weight, not pregnant, no comorbidity, no regimen change within three months, and normal laboratory results for hemoglobin, alanine aminotransferase, and creatinine clearance. We assessed the sensitivity and specificity of nonstable visits at predicting indicators of disease progression or needing additional care: (1) ART regimen change and (2) follow-up visits in <2 and <4 weeks from previous visit. Stable visits had a sensitivity of 88.9% (95% confidence interval: 88.2 to 89.7) and a specificity of 44.8% (44.5 to 44.1) at predicting ART therapy changes, and a sensitivity of 72.6% (71.8 to 73.4) and specificity of 45.1% (44.8 to 45.4) for predicting a follow-up visit interval of <2 weeks and similar results for predicting a follow-up visit interval of <4 weeks. Our retrospective analysis suggests an approach to potentially reduce the number of medical visits while missing few visits in which changes in regimen or additional care would be needed. Evaluation of our criteria in a primary care setting is needed to determine whether they could safely reduce visits.

Prevalent and Incident Tuberculosis Are Independent Risk Factors for Mortality among Patients Accessing Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa

BackgroundPatients with prevalent or incident tuberculosis (TB) in antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa have high mortality risk. However, published data are contradictory as to whether TB is a risk factor for mortality that is independent of CD4 cell counts and other patient characteristics.Methods/FindingsThis observational ART cohort study was based in Cape Town, South Africa. Deaths from all causes were ascertained among patients receiving ART for up to 8 years. TB diagnoses and 4-monthly CD4 cell counts were recorded. Mortality rates were calculated and Poisson regression models were used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRR) and identify risk factors for mortality. Of 1544 patients starting ART, 464 patients had prevalent TB at baseline and 424 developed incident TB during a median of 5.0 years follow-up. Most TB diagnoses (73.6%) were culture-confirmed. A total of 208 (13.5%) patients died during ART and mortality rates were 8.84 deaths/100 person-years during the first year of ART and decreased to 1.14 deaths/100 person-years after 5 years. In multivariate analyses adjusted for baseline and time-updated risk factors, both prevalent and incident TB were independent risk factors for mortality (IRR 1.7 [95% CI, 1.2–2.3] and 2.7 [95% CI, 1.9–3.8], respectively). Adjusted mortality risks were higher in the first 6 months of ART for those with prevalent TB at baseline (IRR 2.33; 95% CI, 1.5–3.5) and within the 6 months following diagnoses of incident TB (IRR 3.8; 95% CI, 2.6–5.7).ConclusionsPrevalent TB at baseline and incident TB during ART were strongly associated with increased mortality risk. This effect was time-dependent, suggesting that TB and mortality are likely to be causally related and that TB is not simply an epiphenomenon among highly immunocompromised patients. Strategies to rapidly diagnose, treat and prevent TB prior to and during ART urgently need to be implemented.

Anemia among HIV-Infected Patients Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa: Improvement in Hemoglobin regardless of Degree of Immunosuppression and the Initiating ART Regimen

Among those with HIV, anemia is a strong risk factor for disease progression and death independent of CD4 count and viral load. Understanding the role of anemia in HIV treatment is critical to developing strategies to reduce morbidity and mortality. We conducted a prospective analysis among 10,259 HIV-infected adults initiating first-line ART between April 2004 and August 2009 in Johannesburg, South Africa. The prevalence of anemia at ART initiation was 25.8%. Mean hemoglobin increased independent of baseline CD4. Females, lower BMI, WHO stage III/IV, lower CD4 count, and zidovudine use were associated with increased risk of developing anemia during follow-up. After initiation of ART, hemoglobin improved, regardless of regimen type and the degree of immunosuppression. Between 0 and 6 months on ART, the magnitude of hemoglobin increase was linearly related to CD4 count. However, between 6 and 24 months on ART, hemoglobin levels showed a sustained overall increase, the magnitude of which was similar regardless of baseline CD4 level. This increase in hemoglobin was seen even among patients on zidovudine containing regimens. Since low hemoglobin is an established adverse prognostic marker, prompt identification of anemia may result in improved morbidity and mortality of patients initiating ART.

Pediatric response to second-line antiretroviral therapy in South Africa.

BackgroundWith improved access to pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings, more children could experience first-line ART treatment failure.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort analysis using electronic medical records from HIV-infected children who initiated ART at McCord Hospital's Sinikithemba Clinic in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, from August 2003 to December 2010. We analyzed all records from children who began second-line ART due to first-line treatment failure. We used logistic regression to compare viral outcomes in Protease Inhibitor (PI)-based versus Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor (NNRTI)-based second-line ART, controlling for time on first-line ART, sex, and whether HIV genotyping guided the regimen change.ResultsOf the 880 children who initiated ART during this time period, 80 (9.1%) switched to second-line ART due to therapeutic failure of first-line ART after a median of 95 weeks (IQR 65–147 weeks). Eight (10%) of the failures received NNRTI-based second-line ART, all of whom failed a PI-based first-line regimen. Seventy (87.5%) received PI-based second-line ART, all of whom failed a NNRTI-based first-line regimen. Two children (2.5%) received non-standard dual therapy as second-line ART. Six months after switching ART regimens, the viral suppression rate was significantly higher in the PI group (82%) than in the NNRTI group (29%; p = 0.003). Forty-one children (51%) were tested for genotypic resistance prior to switching to second-line ART. There was no significant difference in six month viral suppression (p = 0.38) between children with and without genotype testing. Conclusion: NNRTI-based second-line ART carries a high risk of virologic failure compared to PI-based second-line ART.

Human resources needs for universal access to antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a time and motion study

BackgroundAlthough access to life-saving treatment for patients infected with HIV in South Africa has improved substantially since 2004, treating all eligible patients (universal access) remains elusive. As the prices of antiretroviral drugs have dropped over the past years, availability of human resources may now be the most important barrier to achieving universal access to HIV treatment in Africa. We quantify the number of HIV health workers (HHWs) required to be added to the current HIV workforce to achieve universal access to HIV treatment in South Africa, under different eligibility criteria.MethodsWe performed a time and motion study in three HIV clinics in a rural, primary care-based HIV treatment program in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to estimate the average time per patient visit for doctors, nurses, and counselors. We estimated the additional number of HHWs needed to achieve universal access to HIV treatment within one year.ResultsFor universal access to HIV treatment for all patients with a CD4 cell count of ≤350 cells/μl, an additional 2,200 nurses, 3,800 counselors, and 300 doctors would be required, at additional annual salary cost of 929 million South African rand (ZAR), equivalent to US$ 141 million. For universal treatment (‘treatment as prevention’), an additional 6,000 nurses, 11,000 counselors, and 800 doctors would be required, at an additional annual salary cost of ZAR 2.6 billion (US$ 400 million).ConclusionsUniversal access to HIV treatment for patients with a CD4 cell count of ≤350 cells/μl in South Africa may be affordable, but the number of HHWs available for HIV treatment will need to be substantially increased. Treatment as prevention strategies will require considerable additional financial and human resources commitments.

Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy

Currently, boosted protease inhibitor-containing regimens are the only option after first-line regimen failure available for patients in most resource-limited settings, yet little is known about long-term adherence and outcomes. We enrolled patients with virologic failure (VF) who initiated lopinavir/ritonavir-containing second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART). Medication possession ratios were calculated using pharmacy refill dates. Factors associated with 12-month second-line virologic suppression [viral load (VL) <50 copies/mL] and adherence were determined. One hundred six patients (median CD4 count and VL at failure: 153 cells/mm(3) and 28,548 copies/mL, respectively) were enrolled. Adherence improved after second-line ART switch (median adherence 6 months prior, 67%; median adherence during initial 6 months of second-line ART, 100%; P = 0.001). Higher levels of adherence during second-line ART was associated with virologic suppression at month 12 of ART (odds ratio 2.5 per 10% adherence increase, 95% CI 1.3 to 4.8, P = 0.01). Time to virologic suppression was most rapid among patients with 91%-100% adherence compared with patients with 80%-90% and <80% adherence (log rank test, P = 0.01). VF during 24 months of second-line ART was moderate (month 12: 25%, n = 32/126; month 18: 21%, n = 23/112; and month 24: 25%, n = 25/99). The switch to second-line ART in South Africa was associated with an improvement in adherence, however, a moderate ongoing rate of VF--among approximately 25% of patients receiving second-line ART patients at each follow-up interval--was a cause for concern. Adherence level was associated with second-line ART virologic outcome, helping explain why some patients achieved virologic suppression after switch and others did not.

Gender Differences in Survival among Adult Patients Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa: A Multicentre Cohort Study

Increased mortality among men on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been documented but remains poorly understood. We examined the magnitude of and risk factors for gender differences in mortality on ART. Analyses included 46,201 ART-naïve adults starting ART between January 2002 and December 2009 in eight ART programmes across South Africa (SA). Patients were followed from initiation of ART to outcome or analysis closure. The primary outcome was mortality; secondary outcomes were loss to follow-up (LTF), virologic suppression, and CD4+ cell count responses. Survival analyses were used to examine the hazard of death on ART by gender. Sensitivity analyses were limited to patients who were virologically suppressed and patients whose CD4+ cell count reached >200 cells/µl. We compared gender differences in mortality among HIV+ patients on ART with mortality in an age-standardised HIV-negative population. Among 46,201 adults (65% female, median age 35 years), during 77,578 person-years of follow-up, men had lower median CD4+ cell counts than women (85 versus 110 cells/µl, p<0.001), were more likely to be classified WHO stage III/IV (86 versus 77%, p<0.001), and had higher mortality in crude (8.5 versus 5.7 deaths/100 person-years, p<0.001) and adjusted analyses (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 1.31, 95% CI 1.22-1.41). After 36 months on ART, men were more likely than women to be truly LTF (AHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12-1.28) but not to die after LTF (AHR 1.04, 95% CI 0.86-1.25). Findings were consistent across all eight programmes. Virologic suppression was similar by gender; women had slightly better immunologic responses than men. Notably, the observed gender differences in mortality on ART were smaller than gender differences in age-standardised death rates in the HIV-negative South African population. Over time, non-HIV mortality appeared to account for an increasing proportion of observed mortality. The analysis was limited by missing data on baseline HIV disease characteristics, and we did not observe directly mortality in HIV-negative populations where the participating cohorts were located. HIV-infected men have higher mortality on ART than women in South African programmes, but these differences are only partly explained by more advanced HIV disease at the time of ART initiation, differential LTF and subsequent mortality, and differences in responses to treatment. The observed differences in mortality on ART may be best explained by background differences in mortality between men and women in the South African population unrelated to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Rates and Predictors of Failure of First-line Antiretroviral Therapy and Switch to Second-line ART in South Africa

To measure rates and predictors of virologic failure and switch to second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa. : Observational cohort study. We included ART-naive adult patients initiated on public sector ART (January 2000 to July 2008) at 5 sites in South Africa who completed ≥6 months of follow-up. We estimated cumulative risk of virologic failure (viral load ≥400 copies/mL with confirmation above varying thresholds) and switching to second-line ART. Nineteen thousand six hundred forty-five patients (29,935 person-years) had a median of 1.3 years of study follow-up (1.8 years on ART) and a median CD4 count of 93 (IQR: 39-155) cells per microliter at ART initiation. About 9.9% (4.5 per 100 person-years) failed ART in median 16 (IQR: 12-23) months since ART initiation, with median 2.7 months (IQR: 1.6-4.7) months between first elevated and confirmatory viral loads. By survival analysis, using a confirmatory threshold of 400 copies per milliliter, 16.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 15.4% to 18.6%] failed by 5 years on ART, but only 7.8% (95% CI: 6.6% to 9.3%) using a threshold of 10,000. CD4 <25 versus 100-199 (adjusted HR: 1.60; 95% CI: 1.37 to 1.87), ART initiation viral load ≥1,000,000 versus <10,000, (1.32; 0.91 to 1.93), and 2+ gaps in care versus 0 (95% CI: 7.25; 4.95 to 10.6) were predictive of failure. Overall, 10.1% (95% CI: 9.0% to 11.4%) switched to second-line by 5 years on ART. Lower CD4 at failure and higher rate of CD4 decline were predictive of switch (decline 100% to 51% versus 25% to -25%, adjusted HR: 1.96; 95% CI: 1.35 to 2.85). In resource-limited settings with viral load monitoring, virologic failure rates are highly sensitive to thresholds for confirmation. Despite clear guidelines there is considerable variability in switching failing patients, partially in response to immunologic status and postfailure evolution.

Tuberculosis among adults starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: the need for routine case finding

To investigate the prevalence of and evaluate screening modalities for undiagnosed tuberculosis (TB) in antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligible adults in South Africa. Individuals were screened for TB using symptoms, chest radiograph (CXR) and two sputum specimens for microscopy and culture, and were then followed for <6 months to determine TB diagnoses. Among 361 participants (67% female, median age 38 years, median CD4 count 120 cells/mm(3)), 64 (18%) were sputum culture-positive; 114 (32%) fulfilled any TB case definition (culture- and/or smear-positive, or improvement on specific treatment). Symptom screening comprising any of cough, appetite loss or night sweats > 2 weeks had a sensitivity and specificity of respectively 74.5% and 50.8%. Sensitivity was increased by CXR (to 96.1%), but not by smear microscopy. The World Health Organization symptom screen had a sensitivity and specificity of respectively 96.1% and 5.2% in our study population; the addition of CXR increased sensitivity to 100%. Median time to TB treatment was 8 days for diagnoses based on CXR (n = 72) vs. 37 days for diagnoses based only on sputum culture (n = 14). The very high prevalence of undiagnosed TB among patients presenting for ART mandates their routine investigation. CXR improved sensitivity substantially, allowed rapid treatment initiation and should be routine, where available, pending better point-of-care diagnostics.

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Systematic Comparison of Mathematical Models of the Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Incidence in South Africa

BackgroundMany mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART.Methods and FindingsTwelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results.ConclusionsMathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

High Diagnostic Yield of Tuberculosis From Screening Urine Samples From HIV-Infected Patients With Advanced Immunodeficiency Using The Xpert MTB/RIF Assay

We determined the diagnostic yield of the Xpert MTB/RIF assay for tuberculosis (TB) when testing small volumes of urine from ambulatory HIV-infected patients before starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa. Compared with a gold standard of sputum culture, the sensitivity of urine Xpert among those with CD4 cell counts of <50, 50-100, and >100 cells per microliter were 44.4%, 25.0%, and 2.7% (P = 0.001), respectively. Urine Xpert testing provides a means of rapid TB diagnosis in patients with advanced immunodeficiency and poor prognosis. These data are indicative of high rates of TB dissemination and renal involvement in this clinical population.

Genotype assays and third-line ART in resource-limited settings

To project the clinical and economic outcomes of a genotype assay for selection of third-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings, as per the planned international A5288 trial (MULTI-OCTAVE). We used the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-International Model to compare three strategies for patients who have failed second-line ART in South Africa: sustained second-line: no genotype assay, all patients remain on second-line ART; A5288: genotype to determine the resistance profile and assign an appropriate regimen; or population-based third-line: no genotype, all patients switch to a potent third-line regimen. Model inputs are from published data in South Africa. Resistance profiles, ART regimens, and efficacy data were those used for trial planning. Projected life expectancy for sustained second-line, A5288, and population-based third-line are 61.1, 103.8, and 104.2 months. Compared to sustained second-line ($12 ,460), per person lifetime costs increase for the A5288 ($39, 250) and population-based ($44, 120) strategies. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of A5288, compared to sustained second-line, is $7500/year of life saved (YLS), and for population-based third-line, compared to A5288, is $154 ,500/YLS. In the A5288 strategy, very late presentation to care, coupled with lengthy delays to obtain the genotype, dramatically reduces 5-year survival, making the population-based third-line strategy more attractive. We project that, whereas the public health approach to third-line therapy is unaffordable, genotype assays and third-line ART in resource-limited settings will increase survival and be cost-effective compared to the population-based approach, supporting the value of an efficacy study.

The cost-effectiveness of routine tuberculosis screening with Xpert MTB/RIF prior to initiation of antiretroviral therapy

In settings with high tuberculosis (TB) prevalence, 15-30% of HIV-infected individuals initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) have undiagnosed TB. Such patients are usually screened by symptoms and sputum smear, which have poor sensitivity. To project the clinical and economic outcomes of using Xpert MTB/RIF(Xpert), a rapid TB/rifampicin-resistance diagnostic, to screen individuals initiating ART. We used a microsimulation model to evaluate the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative TB screening modalities - in all patients or only symptomatic patients - for hypothetical cohorts of individuals initiating ART in South Africa (mean CD4 cell count = 171 cells/μl; TB prevalence 22%). We simulated no active screening and four diagnostic strategies, smear microscopy (sensitivity 23%); smear and culture (sensitivity, 100%); one Xpert sample (sensitivity in smear-negative TB: 43%); two Xpert samples (sensitivity in smear-negative TB: 62%). Outcomes included projected life expectancy, lifetime costs (2010 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Strategies with ICERs less than $7100 (South African gross domestic product per capita) were considered very cost-effective. Compared with no screening, life expectancy in TB-infected patients increased by 1.6 months using smear in symptomatic patients and by 6.6 months with two Xpert samples in all patients. At 22% TB prevalence, the ICER of smear for all patients was $2800 per year of life saved (YLS), and of Xpert (two samples) for all patients was $5100/YLS. Strategies involving one Xpert sample or symptom screening were less efficient. Model-based analysis suggests that screening all individuals initiating ART in South Africa with two Xpert samples is very cost-effective.

Antigen Detection as a Point-of-Care Test for TB: The Case of Lipoarabinomannan

The limitations of sputum smear microscopy, routine chest radiology for HIV-associated TB and culture-based diagnosis are well recognized, especially in resource-limited settings. The diagnostic accuracy of a new point-of-care lateral-flow urine strip test for lipoarabinomannan (Determine(®) TB-LAM; Alere, MA, USA), which costs US$3.50 per test strip and provides results within 30 min, was evaluated in a cohort of South African patients for HIV-associated TB before starting anti-retroviral therapy in South Africa. Prevalence of culture-positive TB cases was 17.4%, among which 28.2% had sputum smear positivity. Determine(®) TB-LAM (Alere, MA, USA) had highest sensitivity at low CD4 cell counts: 66.7, 51.7 and 39.0% at <50 cells, <100 cells and <200 cells per µl, respectively; specificity was greater than 98% for all strata. There was an incremental sensitivity when Determine TB-LAM was combined with smear microscopy, which did not differ statistically from the sensitivities obtained by testing a single sputum sample with the Xpert(®) MTB/RIF (Cepheid; CA, USA) assay. Determine TB-LAM is a simple, low-cost alternative to existing diagnostic assays for TB screening in HIV-infected patients with very low CD4(+) cell counts.

Predictors of Poor CD4 and Weight Recovery in HIV-Infected Children Initiating ART in South Africa

ObjectiveTo identify baseline demographic and clinical risk factors associated with poor CD4 and weight response after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study of 674 children initiating antiretroviral therapy at McCord and St. Mary's hospitals in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, from August 2003 to December 2008.We extracted data from paper charts and electronic medical records to assess risk factors associated with CD4 and weight response using logistic regression.ResultsFrom the initial cohort of 901 children <10 years old initiating ART between August 2003 and December 2008, we analyzed 674 children with complete baseline data. Viral suppression rates (<400 copies/ml) were 84% after six months of therapy and 88% after 12 months of therapy. Seventy-three percent of children achieved CD4 recovery after six months and 89% after 12 months. Weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) improvements were seen in 58% of children after six months of ART and 64% after 12 months. After six months of ART, lower baseline hemoglobin (p = 0.037), presence of chronic diarrhea (p = 0.007), and virologic failure (p = 0.046) were all associated with poor CD4 recovery by multivariate logistic regression. After 12 months of ART, poor CD4 recovery was associated with higher baseline CD4% (p = 0.005), chronic diarrhea (p = 0.02), and virologic failure (p<0.001). Age less than 3 years at ART initiation (p = 0.0003), higher baseline CD4% (p<0.001), and higher baseline WAZ (p<0.001) were all associated with poor WAZ improvements after 6 months by multivariate logistic regression.ConclusionThe presence of chronic diarrhea at baseline, independent of nutritional status and viral response, predicts poor CD4 recovery. Age at initiation of ART is an important factor in early WAZ response to ART, while viral suppression strongly predicts CD4 recovery but not WAZ improvement.

Hopes interrupted: accessing and experiences of antiretroviral therapy in South Africa

ObjectivesUsing the example of South Africa, this study aimed to examine and obtain a better understanding of the experiences and challenges of urban and rural patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART)...

HIV and Reproduction: Fertility, Contraception, and Preconception Issues and Interventions

HIV and Reproduction: Fertility, Contraception, and Preconception Issues and Interventions

Men More Likely Than Women to Die While on ART

Previous studies of HIV-infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa have shown higher mortality among men than women. Now, researchers have evaluated the magnitude and predictors of this difference among 46,201 treatment-naive adults (65% female) who started ART in South Africa between 2002 and 2009. Total follow-up time was nearly 78,000 person-years. At …

Incidence of Pregnancy after Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa: A Retrospective Clinical Cohort Analysis

Background. Little is known about rates of incident pregnancy among HIV-positive women initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Methods. We conducted a retrospective clinical cohort study among therapy-naïve women ages 18–45 initiating HAART between 1 April 2004 and 30 September 2009 at an adult HAART clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. We used Poisson regression to characterize rates and rate ratios of pregnancy. Results. We evaluated 5,996 women who experienced 727 pregnancies during 14,095 person-years at risk. The overall rate of pregnancy was 5.2 per 100 person-years (95% confidence limits [CL] 4.8, 5.5). By six years, cumulative incidence of first pregnancy was 22.9% (95% CL 20.6%, 25.4%); among women ages 18–25 at HAART initiation, cumulative incidence was 52.2% (95% CL 35.0%, 71.8%). The strongest predictor of incidence of pregnancy was age, with women 18–25 having 13.2 times the rate of pregnancy of women ages 40–45 in adjusted analysis. CD4 counts below 100 and worse adherence to HAART were associated with lower rates of incident pregnancy. Conclusions. Women experience high rates of incident pregnancy after HAART initiation. Understanding which women are most likely to experience pregnancy will help planning and future efforts to understand the implications of pregnancy for response to HAART.