Anti-inflationary Policy Research Articles

Strategic priorities of regional economic development in the context of regulating non-monetary factors of inflation

A vast array of research works concentrates on such aspects of inflation processes as their essence, development factors, anti-inflationary regulation, etc., but precious few of them attempt to identify the factors of inflation in the strategic priorities of regional development. At the same time, economics and state policy at both national and regional levels recognise the significant effect of inflation on economic development. The paper deals with non-monetary factors of inflation in regions and develops a path for formulating regional policy on their regulation. The theories of regional economic development and inflation constitute the methodological framework of the study. The research methods include systematization, functional and comparative analysis, deduction. We identify the provisions of the socio-economic development strategies of the Ural macroregion’s member territories relating to the regulation of non-monetary factors in the development of inflationary processes. The identified aspects of inflation reflect the impact of its non-monetary factors on regional economic development and require anti-inflationary policy to be coupled with the areas of activity of regional authorities. We present a conceptual-logical model for framing regional policy on regulating non-monetary factors of inflation in an RF subject specifying the strategic priorities of economic development that influence regional factors of inflation. The model demonstrates that it is the state programmes of Russia’s constituent entities that are the main tool for regulating non-monetary factors of inflation in the regional government system. It coordinates price regulation measures in the regions with the goals and objectives of policy aimed at developing their economies. The findings contribute to the understanding of regional inflation factors and can be used by regional authorities when executing socio-economic development strategies.

ANTI-INFLATIONARY STATE POLICY ON THE FOOD MARKET

The article examines the effectiveness of the state’s anti-inflationary policy in the food market and the opinion of citizens on priorities and problems in this area. The study showed that the measures taken have a certain level of effectiveness, but do not seem sufficient. In addition, citizens are not sufficiently aware of the measures taken by the anti-inflationary policy, and information and educational work in this direction is important. A significant proportion of respondents consider it important to check the reasons for price increases in specific cases.

КОРЕЛЯЦІЙНО-РЕГРЕСІЙНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ВПЛИВУ БАЗОВИХ ЧИННИКІВ НА РІВЕНЬ ІНФЛЯЦІЇ В УКРАЇНІ

The correlation between the level of inflation and the money supply as well as the impact of unemployment on its level was researched in this article. Studying economic indicators on the basis of the correlation-regression analysis the authors substantiate the key factors that determine inflationary processes in the country. Certain trends and degree of interdependence between the researching economic characteristics were established.
 The problem investigated in the article is the clear identification of the influence of key factors that cause inflation in Ukraine, such as the volume of the money supply, the unemployment rate, etc., which makes it possible to identify the basic regulators of the development of the Ukrainian economy.
 On the basis of the conducted research, it was found that the change in the volume of the money supply has a statistically significant relationship with the level of inflation only in the long term, taking into account trend and nontrend years. It was established that the lack of dependence between the devaluation of the hryvnia and the level of inflation, as well as the lack of a relationship between the level of inflation and producer price indices, is explained by inflation targeting.
 For further research in this direction, it is important to take into account the factors substantiated in this article, which affect the level of inflation, in particular, and the economy of Ukraine in general. Constant monitoring of changes in fiscal and monetary policy will allow building more accurate correlation-regression models, which will enable the development of an effective inflation control strategy in the country.
 The results of the study make it possible to form a modern understanding of the inflation's dynamic in the Ukrainian economy and help to develop a productive strategy in anti-inflation policy and to make important decisions in the field of effective state management.

Anti-inflationary Policy in Russia and Steps for Reducing the Volatility of Inflation

Inflation as a process of monetary depreciation is a debatable issue for many theorists. It is formed under the influence of various reasons: monetary emission, increased government spending, global crises, budget deficit, monopoly of big companies on price determination, trade union monopoly, and others. There are many types of inflation, which are classified depending on a specific feature (the rate of price growth, the nature of the flow, causes, etc.). The paper concludes the need to focus more attention on anti-inflationary policy, while considering not just monetary levers but also non-monetary levers, follow modern trends and look for better mechanisms. The results caused actions of a well-coordinated mechanism of public authorities and their cooperation with credit organizations, the principle of simplicity and publicity, improving financial literacy of the population and considering all available opportunities in the information society. By implementing these steps, the state can more effectively influence to bring about anti-inflationary policy. The materials of scientific research can be useful to specialists in the economic field, scientists, postgraduates, undergraduates.

ОСОБЛИВОСТІ ІНФЛЯЦІЙНИХ ПРОЦЕСІВ В УКРАЇНІ: ПРОБЛЕМИ І ПРИЧИНИ

Research objective. The main purpose of this article is to examine the evolution and dynamics of inflationary processes in Ukraine during 1991–2023 on the basis of historical and systemic analysis, methods of dynamic analysis, structural analysis, and comparative analysis. Separate goals are to reveal and theoretically substantiates the main regularities of inflationary processes influence on the economic development and to analyze the features of anti-inflation regulation in the economy of Ukraine. Research methodology. In the paper, the authors examined inflationary processes with the aim of identifying their consequences for the economy of Ukraine. A review of publications has shown varying studies of the inflationary process. The paper describes the chronology of inflationary processes, the dynamics of the consumer price index, the socio-economic consequences and causes of inflation in Ukraine. Attention is focused on the need for state regulation of inflationary processes. The effectiveness of the anti-inflationary policy was determined. In line with the findings of the study, the prospects for the implementation of an effective monetary anti-inflationary policy aimed at effective regulation of inflationary processes are outlined. Conclusions. The authors conclude that the study of inflationary processes is important because inflation affects the exchange rate, economic growth and welfare. Economic agents always adjust financial risks, taking into account that inflation has historically been one of the most acute problems of Ukraine, which has uneven constant development. This study is aimed at determining the essence and causes of inflation in Ukraine during the period of restoration of its independence, as well as the possibility of its regulation by monetary methods. Inflation in Ukraine has specific features related to pricing, purchasing power, money circulation, anti-inflationary and anti-cyclical policies. Practical implications. The results of this study are of interest to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, as well as the Committee on Ukraine's Integration into the European Union, whereas the processes of European integration contribute to reducing inflation in the future. Originality/value. This study highlights the discussion on inflationary process in the transition economy of Ukraine. The authors emphasize that inflation in Ukraine has a permanent character and requires constant regulation to achieve significant progress in its reducing. The authors discoveredthat authorities should focus on the medium-term horizon of inflation control to ensure a reduction in inflation, as well as a level of inflation appropriate for price stability.

Особенности инфляционных процессов в агропродовольственной системе России

The article is devoted to the study of the features of food inflation in Russia in the context of assessing the main factors and causes that determine it: monetary and non-monetary, economic and non-economic, external and internal, lying on the supply and demand side. Based on the analysis of inflationary processes and factors determining food demand for the period 2000-2022, the authors conclude that the main cause of food inflation in Russia is the increase in production costs, which causes cost inflation. The study of the dynamics and factors of inflation in individual food markets has shown that the rates of price growth and their volatility vary depending on the specific food product and the specifics of the market: agricultural raw materials and processed food products; the level of concentration and monopolization of the market; integration into the world market and orientation to domestic demand. Based on the results of the study, the authors formulated proposals to improve the anti-inflationary policy in the Russian Federation.

The Inflation as a Socio-economic Phenomenon: the Modern Aspects and Trends

This article is devoted to the actual problem of overcoming inflation and analyzing anti-inflationary solutions at the state level. The purpose of the article is to study inflation as a socio-economic process, including methods to reduce it. Achieving this goal involves the following tasks: to review the statistics on the inflation rate in the Russian Federation today; to analyze the situations in which the economy is undergoing global changes; to analyze the anti-inflationary policy of the state, as well as to summarize the conclusions based on the results of the work. The study used deduction and induction, comparative analysis, including analogy and generalization. The perspective of the study is to solve the problem of inflation, since its consequences in the economy and society are very multifaceted and diverse. On the one hand, in small doses, inflation gives a head start to price growth and profit margins, becoming the reason for some recovery of the economy. But with the complication of the situation, inflation hinders reproduction, and also heats up tension in society. Only the state itself can fight the consequences of inflation, no business alone is able to defend its existence under such conditions. This is a macroeconomic task of the state, which is solved by introducing an anti—inflationary policy in the country, i.e. anti-inflationary policy is measures for state regulation of the economy.

The inflation targeting regime in Ukraine and Czech Republic: a comparative analysis

The main purpose of this article is to determine the impact of the inflation targeting re-gime on the inflation rates in Ukraine and the Czech Republic, to identify the advantages and disadvantages of its use, to study the evolution and dynamics of inflationary processes in Ukraine and the Czech Republic, as well as the nature and causes of inflation in Ukraine and the Czech Republic. A separate goal is to analyze the conditions and features of the Czech Re-public's experience with the introduction of inflation targeting and the formation of recommen-dations of successful measures to achieve inflation goals for Ukraine. In the paper, the authors examined the practice of applying the inflation targeting regime in Ukraine and the Czech Re-public in order to identify the positive and negative consequences of the implementation of this monetary policy regime. A review of publications has shown varying attitudes towards the in-flation targeting regime. The paper describes the chronology of inflationary processes in the re-searched countries, the dynamics of the consumer price index, the socio-economic consequences and causes of inflation. Attention is focused on the need for state regulation of inflationary pro-cesses. The effectiveness of the anti-inflationary policy was determined. In line with the findings of the study, the prospects for the implementation of an effective monetary anti-inflationary policy aimed at effective regulation of inflationary processes are outlined. The authors conclude that the study of the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) monetary policy is important because it affects inflation, the exchange rate, and economic growth. Economic agents always adjust fi-nancial risks, keeping in mind that historically inflation has been one of the most acute prob-lems for Ukraine , which has an uneven constant development. This study is aimed at determin-ing the nature and causes of modern inflation in Ukraine and in Czech Republic and the possi-bility of its regulation by monetary methods. Differences in the dynamics of inflation processes in the presented countries indicate that inflation in each country has specific features related to pricing, purchasing power, money circulation, anti-inflationary and countercyclical policies. However, unevenness and cyclical development of inflation is typical for the studied countries. The results of this study are of interest to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, as well as the Committee on Ukraine's Integration into the European Union, whereas the processes of European integration contribute to reducing inflation in the future. The authors conclude that in the process of creating effective economic policy, it is necessary to use the experience of other countries that have achieved stable, multi-year success in this pro-cess. This study highlights the discussion about inflation targeting experience in the transition economies of Ukraine and Czech Republic. The authors emphasize that circumstances that led to the transition from exchange rate pegging to inflation targeting have made significant pro-gress in reducing inflation. The authors discovered that the focus of inflation-targeting by cen-tral banks should be on the medium-term horizon in order to ensure inflation reduction as well as inflation level appropriate for price stability.

How Is Money Driven? The Case in Shanghai (1949–1950)

This article presents a case study of how the Renminbi won the currency war in Shanghai between 1949 and 1950. This case study supports the proposition of chartalism and MMT that money is a creature of the state, and in two ways deepens our understanding of the role of the state in the sovereign currency system. First, taxation is not the only way to drive money. The Shanghai government also drove money by supplying goods. Second, the outcome of a currency war depends on many historical factors, and the government plays an important role by changing the conventions that shape people’s monetary behavior. The Shanghai government adopted anti-inflation policies to transform the conventions of valuing commodities and metallic currencies over paper currencies.

Energy price shocks, conflict inflation, and income distribution in a three-sector model

The paper presents a model of conflict inflation to investigate the distributional effects of energy price shocks. We argue that periods of high inflation are always periods of significant redistribution of income. We analyse how such redistribution occurs along two dimensions: between workers and firms and between sectors of the economy. To study the distributional outcomes of the recent inflationary episode, we build a three-sector model comprising a domestic energy sector which provides inputs for a goods and a services sector. The model is calibrated to US sectoral data with the Method of Simulated Moments. While energy prices are set internationally, non-energy prices and nominal wages are set by firms and workers, giving rise to conflicting claims over the distribution of income. We consider three shocks that trigger inflationary distributional conflict: an energy price shock combined with demand and supply shocks to the goods sector. We find that the recent inflationary episode constitutes a price-wage rather than a wage-price spiral. The combined shocks induce non-energy firms to raise prices, which undermines real wages, and redistributes income towards firms. The sectoral demand shift towards goods in combination with pandemic-related supply bottlenecks further raises mark-ups, accelerating inflation and leading to divergence in sectoral profit margins. We compare three anti-inflationary policies: redistributing windfall profits to workers, nominal wage restraint, and aggregate demand contraction through monetary or fiscal policy. The redistribution of profits via a windfall tax is most effective in reducing inflation without reinforcing reductions in employment and labour shares.

Неконвенційна інфляція та антиінфляційне партнерство

Introduction. In the last decade, the global economy has seen an intensification of inflation trends, the nature of which goes beyond the standard duality of demand-driven and cost-driven inflation. This puts the significant limitations on the performance of conventional anti-inflationary tools and pushes to active studying of the given phenomenon. Problem Statement The task becomes relevant to specify the institutional changes, necessary to overcome the structural disproportions, responsible for the inflationary trends in modern economy. Purpose. To specify the factors of price growth of non-monetary nature, and to determine the ways to overcome their impact based on the institutional modernization of the national economy. Methods. General scientific and special methods have been used, such as: analysis, synthesis, induction, method of theoretical generalization, deduction, transition from abstract to concrete. Results. The specific features of unconventional inflation have been determined as having the institutional nature. Based on the study of modern anti-inflationary strategies of developed countries, the need has been proven to recover the institutional framework of monetary transmission based on the implementation of wider scope of public policy tools. The effectiveness of partner actions facing unconventional inflations has been proven. The main features of anti-inflationary partnership have been determined. The direction of actions has been prescribed for main partners: the National Bank, commercial banks, the government, business, local self-governance, bodies , ordinary people. Conclusions. The phenomenon of unconventional inflation, that has become globally widespread in recent years, necessitates significant widening the range of the tools of anti-inflationary policy, and the involvement of a comprehensive range of stakeholders, capable to mitigate the impact of inflation drivers. Their partner interaction according to the defined priority directions can ensure the synergy in the impact on the unconventional inflation factors due to strengthening the adaptive capacity to institutionally determined changes in assets’ prices.

Effectiveness of anti-inflation policy that ensures economic growth: Evidence from post-Soviet countries

There are active debates on the scale of inflation-economic growth causality in the short- and long-term perspectives and factors affecting the correlation and effectiveness of anti-inflationary measures depending on initial economic conditions. These scientific debates result in controversial results. This study aims to explore short- and long-run relationships in the inflation-economic growth chain of 12 post-Soviet countries (Azerbaijan, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia) to determine the most effective system of anti-inflationary policy. The paper employed statistical analysis and trend line extrapolation (analysis of inflationary trends in 2000–2021 and forecast for 2022–2024), pooled mean group of the autoregressive distributed lag model in the Stata 14.2/SE software (identification of the short and long-run coefficients characterizing relationships between inflation and economic growth), and ordinary least squares regression (country-specific modeling results). Statistical analysis showed that Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have the most effective anti-inflationary policy; Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Moldova demonstrate moderate effectiveness, and the other countries have low effectiveness. It is also established that in the long run, a 1% increase in inflation results in a 0.195% decrease in GDP growth with a 99% confidence probability, while in the short run, this causal relationship is insignificant. Country-specific modeling results revealed that within 12 post-Soviet countries, economic growth in Kazakhstan, Lithuania, and Ukraine in a short-term perspective depends on inflation dynamics. According to the modeling results, Lithuania has the most effective anti-inflationary policy to ensure sustainable economic growth.

Защита и обеспечение устойчивости рубля: отдельные вопросы правового регулирования

The article analyzes individual problems in the implementation of the function of the Bank of Russia to protect the ruble; revealed the content of the terms “protection” and “stability” in relation to the national currency; identified certain problems of legal regulation of the activities of the Bank of Russia to minimize inflationary processes; substantiates the conclusions about the current state of the mechanism for ensuring the protection of the national currency, as well as the need for legislative registration of the anti-inflationary policy system.

The role of inflation in the UK economy in the post-pandemic era

The paper focuses on the specific nature of the inflation process and a set of anti-inflation policies in the United Kingdom in 2021-2022. Based on the analysis of the economic literature, speeches given by the central bank’s staff, official documents and statistical data the author discusses the implicit transition in the regulation approaches used by HM Treasury and the Bank of England. There is some evidence that the cost-of-living crisis as a part of the inflation problem gets a top priority in the post-pandemic era. The government addresses this issue mainly through the income redistribution and benefits and financial support for lower income households. With regard to the inflation problem per se, the official approach implies the shift from monetary to fiscal tools. It means the expanding use of automatic stabilizers through increasing taxes and NICs in accordance with the IMF recommendations. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s measures are more consistent with the task of financing the government’s borrowing than maintaining the price stability. These findings highlight the rising role of the state in the UK economy. The paper concludes with some comments regarding the split within the conservative party over the marked shifts in the monetary and fiscal policy.

Food riots redux: lessons from the 2007–08 food crisis

ABSTRACT The 2007–08 global food crisis led to hunger riots around the world. Food prices have again risen spectacularly since the COVID-19 pandemic but have fortunately not led to major social unrest in the global South. In this research note, we argue that the difference lies, in part, in the nature of the two price shocks and, in part, in the policy response from governments and international organizations. This time round, the stability of rice prices appears to have dampened the impact of food inflation in major rice-importing countries. This pattern of global rice price is in sharp contrast to that seen in 2008 when the price tripled between January and May. The two food crises also differ substantially in the extent and responsiveness of public policy. Right from March 2020, governments began taking fiscal and administrative measures to help the populations suffering from the loss of livelihood. Nonetheless, food inflation remains a concern, and prolonged conflict in Ukraine and the ongoing inflation spiral could put in jeopardy the mitigating effects of anti-inflationary policy measures.

АНТИИНФЛЯЦИОННАЯ ПОЛИТИКА В РОССИИ: ТЕОРЕТИЧЕСКИЕ ВОПРОСЫ, ОЦЕНКА СИТУАЦИИ В ДИНАМИКЕ, МЕТОДЫ РЕГУЛИРОВАНИЯ ИНФЛЯЦИИ

The topic of anti-inflationary policy is relevant in the modern world, as inflation can have a significant impact on the economy and people’s lives. A high level of inflation can lead to a reduction in the purchasing power of the population, an increase in the cost of production, a decrease in investment and other negative consequences. The anti-inflationary policy is aimed at reducing the level of inflation and ensuring price stability, which in turn can contribute to improving the level of economic development and improving the quality of life of people. Currently, many countries use anti-inflationary policies to manage the economy and reduce inflation. For example, the Central Bank of Russia uses monetary policy and other tools discussed in this article to regulate the level of inflation in the country.

ОТРИЦАТЕЛЬНОЕ ВОЗДЕЙСТВИЕ ИНФЛЯЦИИ НА ЭКОНОМИКУ СТРАНЫ НА ПРИМЕРЕ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ

This article studies the essence of inflation with the consideration of its main types. In addition, in the course of writing a research paper we considered the main consequences of inflation, which has a negative impact on the socio-economic development of the country. Also, we analyzed the market conditions with the consideration of the dynamics of inflation rates in the period from 2018 to 2022, relying on the data of Rosstat. Accordingly, in our opinion, the topic of our research is very relevant, since inflationary processes have a strong impact on all spheres of life and require the development of certain measures to create a sustainable system of anti-inflationary policy in the country.

MODERN DETERMINANTS OF INFLATIONARY PROCESSES IN RUSSIA IN THE CONTEXT OF NEW GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES

Introduction. Until now, polemics in the scientific circles of scientists-economists are the nature of Russian inflationary processes and the content of anti-inflationary policies. There are two main viewpoints: i) inflation is caused by non-monetary reasons, or not just monetary reasons; ii) purely monetary reasons. The purpose of the study is to assess the mechanism of state regulation of inflationary processes and its determinants in the Russian Federation as a type of threats to economic growth, stability of the country's economic development and national security. Methodology. The initial materials for the study are official data on inflation dynamics of the Bank of Russia, Rosstat, open sources in Internet. The study is based on the methodology for assessing inflation adopted by the Federal State Statistics Service. Results. The article discusses the dynamics of inflationary processes in Russia since 1991 to date. A statistical study of the causes and determinants of inflation for 9 months of 2022 was carried out, as well as methods for regulating inflation of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the current stage was considered. Conclusions. Based on the studies, the causes of inflation for 9 months of 2022 were established, which made it possible to propose a number of measures aimed at stabilizing the inflation rate in the future.

Monetary Circulation in the Soviet Union during the Late 1980s and Early 1990s: In Search of a Way out of the Crisis

In the early 1990s, strengthening the monetary system and increasing the role of money in the development of the national economy were important conditions for the transition of the Soviet Union to the foundations of a market economy. As is known, stabilization of monetary circulation and reduction of inflationary processes can be achieved both through the implementation of monetary and anti-inflationary policies and through the implementation of monetary reform. This is the kind of reform that was carried out in the Soviet Union in early 1991.

Features of the monetary policy of central banks to combat high inflation

The article describes the measures taken by the central banks of the world's largest economies to combat high inflation. The authors give a definition of what exactly is considered high inflation, analyze the timeliness and effectiveness of taking anti-inflationary measures, and also answer the question of the need for the monetary authorities to react to inflation, which does not have an obvious monetary nature.
 In the article the particular attention is paid to the difference between the anti-inflationary policy of central banks in developed and emerging markets, as well as to the issues of coordination between the actions of the central bank and the government in the field of anti-inflationary policy. The authors point out the importance of increasing the efficiency of the transmission mechanism through the development of various segments of the financial market, including the derivatives market.
 As a result of the study, a hypothesis is put forward that there is a direct relationship between the development of the financial market, especially the capital market, and the costs of fighting inflation. Countries with less developed capital markets and smaller gold and foreign exchange reserves are forced to use the key rate of central banks to fight inflation, paying with their economic growth potential for the opportunity to have low inflation.
 The article also makes a fundamental conclusion that the risk of inflation has acquired global features, however has not yet affected all countries, bypassing those markets that traditionally struggled with the deflation factor, and their central banks had negative rates. As well, the article pays attention to the dependence of the foreign exchange rate on the difference between the levels of interest rates, and makes assumptions about the possibility of manipulating the foreign exchange rate through delaying anti-inflationary measures in order to stimulate exports.