Anticipatory Approach Research Articles

METHODOLOGY OF ANTISPATIVE APPROACH IN ENSURING DYNAMIC SUSTAINABILITY OF THE ENTERPRISE DURING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF INNOVATION STRATEGIES

The article actualizes the problem of post-crisis resumption of activity of industrial enterprises of Ukraine in the post-war period. It is argued that this requires systemic transformations of the business model based on the implementation of relevant innovation strategies. The results of the analysis of innovative activity of industrial enterprises of Ukraine for 2014-2020 are presented and correlated with the dynamics of the corresponding costs. The low return on innovation is indicated. It is assumed that this is a consequence of the fact that in the formation of targets of innovation strategies, preference is given to indicators of allocative efficiency. The shortcomings of this approach are pointed out, the main of which is the lack of efficiency in the implementation of innovative changes, caused by the inconsistency of the structure of the innovative potential of the enterprise to the goals of innovative development. This causes the company to lag behind the schedule of innovative changes and threatens it with the loss of dynamic stability during the implementation of innovation strategies. The need to form a relevant theoretical and methodological basis to justify the choice of industrial enterprise innovation strategy, able to ensure the systemic transformation processes in conjunction with the goals of increasing competitiveness in the strategic period. The need to combine allocative and adaptive efficiency indicators in the formation of goals of innovative change is emphasized and the priority is given to the priority of ensuring adaptive efficiency. The author’s position is expressed that the methodological basis for the development of innovative strategies of industrial enterprises should be an anticipatory approach in management. It is argued that this requires high information sensitivity in the decision-making system, which is achieved by decentralization of management. The algorithm of substantiation of decisions in the system of decentralized management of system transformations of the enterprise on the basis of realization of innovative strategies is developed.

Harnessing the potential of artificial intelligence for humanitarian action: Opportunities and risks

AbstractData-driven artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are progressively transforming the humanitarian field, but these technologies bring about significant risks for the protection of vulnerable individuals and populations in situations of conflict and crisis. This article investigates the opportunities and risks of using AI in humanitarian action. It examines whether and under what circumstances AI can be safely deployed to support the work of humanitarian actors in the field. The article argues that AI has the potential to support humanitarian actors as they implement a paradigm shift from reactive to anticipatory approaches to humanitarian action. However, it recommends that the existing risks, including those relating to algorithmic bias and data privacy concerns, must be addressed as a priority if AI is to be put at the service of humanitarian action and not to be deployed at the expense of humanitarianism. In doing so, the article contributes to the current debates on whether it is possible to harness the potential of AI for responsible use in humanitarian action.

A realist evaluation of a home-based end of life care service for children and families: what works, for whom, how, in what circumstances and why?

BackgroundChildren’s palliative and end of life care is underpinned internationally by a commitment to provide care and support in the family’s preferred place, which may include home, hospital or hospice. Limited evidence on models of best practice for the provision of children’s end of life care at home is available. This realist evaluation of a novel, home-based end of life care service explored what works for whom, how, in what circumstances and why.MethodsAdopting principles of realist evaluation, an initial programme theory (IPT) was developed from multiple data sources including a scoping review, service documentation review, audit of service data, and qualitative data gathered from stakeholder (n = 6) and family interviews (n = 10). Three families who had used the service were identified as case studies and interviews with professionals involved in their care (n = 20) were conducted to test the IPT. The findings informed the revised CMOs illustrating the contexts and mechanisms which underpin how and why the service works and for whom.ResultsCMO configurations were identified explaining how and why the service works for families across five core components: anticipatory approach to care planning and delivery, advance care planning, service responsiveness and flexibility, 24/7 nurse-led service with 24-h medical support, and partnership working. Key mechanisms include establishing trusting relationships, building skills and parent confidence to deliver care, early advance care planning discussions with clear documentation, providing a single point of contact for families, workforce planning and resources to deliver the service as intended, effective communication and leadership within and between providers of the service, and use of joint policies and procedures. Recommendations for future development and expansion of the service are also discussed.ConclusionsThe findings highlight core components making this service a success and areas of challenge which continue to be addressed as the service develops. With increasing demand for home-based end of life care for children these components provide a structure which can help to guide service development to meet the needs of these families in other regions to ensure that children and families receive good quality care in their place of choice.

Development of a readiness for change maturity model: an energy management system implementation case study

AbstractThis paper provides a methodology to assess the maturity of an organization’s readiness for change based on the use of a Fuzzy Analytic Network Process and fuzzy linguistic evaluation maturity model. This anticipatory approach’s purpose is to evaluate the extent in which an organization is ready to implement a change initiative, in order to enhance supportive behaviors and identify improvement areas before engaging the change and thus reducing change adoption failure risks. A case study for the implementation of an Energy Management System according to the ISO 50001 Standard within a factory operating in the automotive sector is provided. Rather than the classical technical approach found in energy management maturity models, this approach offers an organizational perspective. The use of the Fuzzy Analytic Network Process allows the consideration of the interrelations between factors, while the use of fuzzy logic for the evaluation through linguistic variables helps in taking the uncertainty and imprecision of respondents into consideration. This approach serves as a decision support system for decision-makers by providing the organization’s readiness maturity level as well as the identification of improvement areas that will help ensure a successful implementation of the desired change initiative. In the conducted case study, the obtained maturity level refers to an average readiness for change for the implementation of the Energy Management System and requires the definition of an improvement roadmap, comprising the following elements: ensuring top management leadership and organizational commitment and involving employees as well as internal communication on the personal and organizational benefits of the implementation of an Energy Management System.

Determining the human to AI workforce ratio – Exploring future organisational scenarios and the implications for anticipatory workforce planning

There are waves of organisational adaptation challenges facing decision makers due to current time societal, systemic and pandemic implications. It is difficult to plan strategically and then act decisively towards a future that is uncertain - the cause and effect offering many scenarios, some plausible and some outliers. In this research 110 participants from 36 different organisations were invited to explore the implications of different ratios of human and artificial intelligence (AI) in future organisational operating models. Five operating models were explored using the Futures Wheel (Glenn, 1972) [1]. The Futures Wheel is a methodology to causally link the future implications of a scenarios and change. Operating models explored varied from a fully human workforce with no AI to those which had a changed ratio of AI and human workers and leaders with the outlier being an AI lead (no human) model. Three participatory workshops generated 20 futures wheels, four for each of the five organisational scenarios. This article will present the results, personally prioritised by participants, to identify which implications they thought in an anticipatory 2040 organisational context would be best avoided (stop happening) or amplified (make happen). These findings then are analysed to produce macro themes that form part of a proposed anticipatory workforce design approach (5As) for organisations strategising on what the ideal Human to AI ratio (Human:AI) ratio is within an organisational context.

Cardiac and Pulmonary Management Status of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy in South Korea Based on Data From the National Health Insurance Database.

Background and PurposeThe purpose of this study was to determine the cardiac and pulmonary management status of patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) in South Korea based on the Korean National Health Insurance database.MethodsThis study used data of patients with code G71.0 in the National Health Information database, and also those with the special case of code V012. Cardiac function was assessed based on whether echocardiography and 24-h electrocardiography were performed, as well as the frequency of these investigations. Furthermore, information on the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi), angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB), and beta blockers (BB) in the drug benefit list was checked. Medical charge records were also checked regarding the prescription of respiratory functional assessments and treatments.ResultsThe diagnostic criteria were met by 479 patients, with 41% of these patients receiving a cardiac evaluation, 29.8% being prescribed ACEi at 14.4±3.7 years of age, 59.5% undergoing pulmonary function tests, and 42.1% received pulmonary rehabilitation. The age at receiving ventilator support was 19.4±2.7 years. The frequency of cardiac and respiratory function tests increased with age, but the interval between tests was longer than the recent DMD care recommendations. The trend of taking ACEi, ARB, and BB for cardiac management in South Korea did not change during the study analysis period.ConclusionsThe findings of this study will contribute to recognizing the current status and the importance of applying an anticipatory approach to cardiopulmonary function in DMD patients.

Inadequacy Revealed and the Transition to Adaptation as Risk Management in New Zealand

Climate change risk is rife with uncertainty. Increased frequency and intensity of flooding and drought and progressive sea-level rise, that compound and cascade and increase risk over time, pose particular difficulties for planning. The risks require institutional and governance frameworks that are tailored to such a dynamic environment. However, most planning frameworks and their practice focus on the societal need for certainty in space and time, to enable investment decisions to be made and activities to be undertaken with some stability. This means risk is framed in a static manner using time-bound planning methods, such as lines on maps and zoning, that lock in people and assets to areas of risk that are exposed to changing risk in time and space. The consequences are being increasingly revealed globally in deltas, inland low-lying areas and at the coast, and will increase unless planning practice becomes more adaptive and anticipates the risks early enough for adjustments to be made. Current decision-making frameworks in New Zealand have been revealed as inadequate for enabling changing and uncertain risks from climate change to be addressed. We discuss how practice under the existing planning framework has exposed people and assets to greater risk, and the challenges in the transition taking place in New Zealand toward an anticipatory adaptive approach. We chart the course of this transition and suggest how current law and practice can support and embed an adaptive direction within the institutional reforms underway for more effective climate risk management.

Speeding up to keep up: exploring the use of AI in the research process

There is a long history of the science of intelligent machines and its potential to provide scientific insights have been debated since the dawn of AI. In particular, there is renewed interest in the role of AI in research and research policy as an enabler of new methods, processes, management and evaluation which is still relatively under-explored. This empirical paper explores interviews with leading scholars on the potential impact of AI on research practice and culture through deductive, thematic analysis to show the issues affecting academics and universities today. Our interviewees identify positive and negative consequences for research and researchers with respect to collective and individual use. AI is perceived as helpful with respect to information gathering and other narrow tasks, and in support of impact and interdisciplinarity. However, using AI as a way of ‘speeding up—to keep up’ with bureaucratic and metricised processes, may proliferate negative aspects of academic culture in that the expansion of AI in research should assist and not replace human creativity. Research into the future role of AI in the research process needs to go further to address these challenges, and ask fundamental questions about how AI might assist in providing new tools able to question the values and principles driving institutions and research processes. We argue that to do this an explicit movement of meta-research on the role of AI in research should consider the effects for research and researcher creativity. Anticipatory approaches and engagement of diverse and critical voices at policy level and across disciplines should also be considered.

Developing a Reflexive, Anticipatory, and Deliberative Approach to Unanticipated Discoveries: Ethical Lessons from iBlastoids

In this paper, we explore the recent creation of “iBlastoids,” which are 3-D structures that resemble early human embryos prior to implantation which formed via self-organization of reprogrammed adult skin cells. We explore some of the ethical, philosophical, social, and regulatory issues related to this research, with focus particularly on what it means to “anticipate” research outcomes when using novel methods or when serendipitous discoveries are made. We defend the need for reflexive, anticipatory, and deliberative ethical and conceptual work by researchers working in emerging and contentious research domains, in collaboration with interdisciplinary scholars, as well as regulators, funders, and publics.

Anticipatory Online Compensation of Tool Deflection Using a Priori Information from Process Planning

Removing excess material from build-up welding by milling is a critical step in the repair of blades from aircraft engines. This so-called recontouring is a very challenging machining task. Shape deviations often result from the deflection of tool and workpiece due to process forces. Considering the individuality of repair cases, compensation of those deflections by process force measurement and online tool path adaption is a very suitable method. However, there is one caveat to this reactive approach. Due to causality, a corrective movement, following a force variation, is always delayed by a finite reaction time. At this moment, though, the displacement has already manifested itself as a deviation in the machined surface. To overcome those limitations and to improve compensation beyond the reduction of control delays, this study proposes a novel approach of anticipatory online compensation. Flank-milling experiments with abrupt changes in the tool-workpiece engagement conditions are conducted to investigate the limitations of reactive compensation and to explore the potential of the new anticipatory approach.

Anticipatory approach for dynamic and stochastic shipment matching in hinterland synchromodal transportation

This paper investigates a dynamic and stochastic shipment matching problem faced by network operators in hinterland synchromodal transportation. We consider a platform that receives contractual and spot shipment requests from shippers, and receives multimodal services from carriers. The platform aims to provide optimal matches between shipment requests and multimodal services within a finite horizon under spot request uncertainty. Due to the capacity limitation of multimodal services, the matching decisions made for current requests will affect the ability to make good matches for future requests. To solve the problem, this paper proposes an anticipatory approach which consists of a rolling horizon framework that handles dynamic events, a sample average approximation method that addresses uncertainties, and a progressive hedging algorithm that generates solutions at each decision epoch. Compared with the greedy approach which is commonly used in practice, the anticipatory approach has total cost savings up to 8.18% under realistic instances. The experimental results highlight the benefits of incorporating stochastic information in dynamic decision making processes of the synchromodal matching system.

Guidelines for Conducting Ethical Artificial Intelligence Research in Neurology: A Systematic Approach for Clinicians and Researchers.

Preemptive recognition of the ethical implications of study design and algorithm choices in artificial intelligence (AI) research is an important but challenging process. AI applications have begun to transition from a promising future to clinical reality in neurology. As the clinical management of neurology is often concerned with discrete, often unpredictable, and highly consequential events linked to multimodal data streams over long timescales, forthcoming advances in AI have great potential to transform care for patients. However, critical ethical questions have been raised with implementation of the first AI applications in clinical practice. Clearly, AI will have far-reaching potential to promote, but also to endanger, ethical clinical practice. This article employs an anticipatory ethics approach to scrutinize how researchers in neurology can methodically identify ethical ramifications of design choices early in the research and development process, with a goal of preempting unintended consequences that may violate principles of ethical clinical care. First, we discuss the use of a systematic framework for researchers to identify ethical ramifications of various study design and algorithm choices. Second, using epilepsy as a paradigmatic example, anticipatory clinical scenarios that illustrate unintended ethical consequences are discussed, and failure points in each scenario evaluated. Third, we provide practical recommendations for understanding and addressing ethical ramifications early in methods development stages. Awareness of the ethical implications of study design and algorithm choices that may unintentionally enter AI is crucial to ensuring that incorporation of AI into neurology care leads to patient benefit rather than harm.

Metabotropic group II glutamate receptors in the basolateral amygdala mediate cue-triggered increases in incentive motivation.

Reward-associated cues can trigger incentive motivation for reward and invigorate reward-seeking behaviour via Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer (PIT). Glutamate signaling within the basolateral amygdala (BLA) modulates cue-triggered increases in incentive motivation. However, the role of BLA metabotropic group II glutamate (mGlu2/3) receptors is largely unknown. In Experiment 1, we characterized cue-triggered increases in incentive motivation for water reward using the PIT paradigm. In Experiment 2, we assessed the influence of intra-BLA microinjections of the mGlu2/3 receptor agonist LY379268 on this effect. Water-restricted male Sprague-Dawley rats learned to press a lever for water. Separately, they learned to associate one of two auditory cues with free water. On test days, rats could lever press under extinction conditions (no water), with intermittent, non-contingent CS+ and CS- presentations. In Experiment 1, rats were tested under baseline conditions. In Experiment 2, rats received intra-BLA microinjections of LY379268 (0, 3 and 6 [Formula: see text]g/hemisphere) before testing. Across experiments, CS+, but not CS-, presentations increased water-associated lever pressing during testing, even though responding was reinforced neither by water nor the CS+. Intra-BLA LY379268 abolished both CS+ potentiated pressing on the water-associated lever and CS+ evoked conditioned approach to the site of water delivery. LY379268 did not influence locomotion or instrumental and Pavlovian response rates during intervals between CS presentations or during the CS-, indicating no motor effects. mGlu2/3 receptor activity in the BLA mediates cue-triggered potentiation of incentive motivation for reward, suppressing both cue-induced increases in instrumental pursuit of the reward and anticipatory approach behaviour.

THE ARTEMIS ACCORDS: EVOLUTION OR REVOLUTION IN INTERNATIONAL SPACE LAW?

Abstract Adopted in October 2020, the Artemis Accords are a set of 13 provisions establishing a principled framework for the sustainable human exploration of the Moon and the other celestial bodies, including the exploitation of their natural resources. This article examines the extent to which the Artemis Accords comply with international law and international standards. It argues that, while rooted on the provisions of the Outer Space Treaty, the Artemis Accords introduce a significant innovation in international space law by replacing the anticipatory approach to the regulation of outer space activities with the staged principle of adaptive governance.

RegTech and Predictive Lawmaking: Closing the RegLag Between Prospective Regulated Activity and Regulation

Regulation chronically suffers significant delay starting at the detectable initiation of a “regulable activity” and culminating at effective regulatory response. Regulator reaction is impeded by various obstacles: (i) confusion in optimal level, form and choice of regulatory agency, (ii) political resistance to creating new regulatory agencies, (iii) lack of statutory authorization to address particular novel problems, (iv) jurisdictional competition among regulators, (v) Congressional disinclination to regulate given political conditions, and (vi) a lack of expertise, both substantive and procedural, to deploy successful counter-measures. Delay is rooted in several stubborn institutions, including libertarian ideals permeating both the U.S. legal system and the polity, constitutional constraints on exercise of governmental powers, chronic resource constraints including underfunding, and agency technical incapacities. Therefore, regulatory prospecting to identify regulable activity often lags the suspicion of future regulable activity or its first discernable appearance. This Article develops the regulatory lag theory (RegLag), argues that regulatory technologies (RegTech), including those from the blockchain technology space, can help narrow the RegLag gap, and proposes programs to improve regulatory agency clairvoyance to more aggressively adapt to changing regulable activities, such as by using promising anticipatory approaches.

A MULTI CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS APPROACH TOWARDS CREATING A INCLUSIVE CURRICULUM FOR GENDER RESPONSIVE HIGHER EDUCATION

In the era when globalisation have challenged the ways we traditionally conceptualise higher education curriculum and its implications, the academic debates with respective to importance of gender inclusive higher education has brought to the surface the necessity of discussion about the factors/components which contributes in making higher education curriculum inclusive. Although there are multitude of publication which exists on gender inclusivity and higher education, very less work has been done on designing an inclusive curriculum for gender responsive higher education. This paper is an attempt to fill this gap by taking wider and a more holistic view that is based on a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework. A comprehensive list of factors/components essential for designing higher education curriculum was extracted from extant literature and expert opinion was developed. Further, Analytical Hierarchy Process was adopted as a MCDA method and established priorities using pair wise comparisons and judgements to identify the relative importance of these factors/components. Our findings show that among all the factors/components identified (Educational, Dispositional, Conditional and Cultural), Educational component which consists of attributes like entry qualifications, educational experiences, experiences of work and life, learning approaches contributes maximum in designing an inclusive curriculum for gender responsive higher education. Moreover, the paper contributes methodologically by proposing first time development of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Framework in precise and a unique way. Through this study, we also highlight the need for adapting a pro active anticipatory approach in teaching pedagogy by higher education instructions.

Developing Organizational Futures Orientation—A Single Case Study Exploring and Conceptualizing the Transformation Process in Practice

In today's world, fast, and systemic changes are taking place at all levels of business and society. At the same time, the average age of corporations is dramatically decreasing, resulting in lower level of profits generated over their life span. Despite the increased evidence of the high impacts of foresight on the company-level economic growth, profitability and long-term vitality, only a minority of companies have so far developed their futures oriented capabilities and competences. Given the particular importance of small and medium sized companies in most economies worldwide, and their still rather low and deficient level of interest in futures thinking and strategic foresight, more understanding is needed about how to increase their awareness and adoption of the anticipatory approaches and methods both in theory and practice. Hence, in this practice-oriented single case study, the objective was to empirically explore and conceptualise the process of developing organisational futures orientation in a small company in the field of strategic consulting and training. As a result, based on the six-pillars of futures thinking for transforming as the theoretical frame of reference, a six-step process model for developing organisational futures orientation is provided to offer a pragmatic view of the process.

State and Local Economic Development and Urban Anticipatory Governance

This edition of the Zoning and Planning Law Report connects the concept of “anticipatory governance,” developed in the context of climate change adaptation and technology assessment, with urban governance challenges particularly around economic development. Climate change adaptation has to do with the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. Technology assessment relates to public participation around understanding the ramifications of new technology. I have written elsewhere at length about approaching planning and economic development processes in cities and states both in relation to business location incentives—job buying —and through what I have termed an “urban anticipatory governance” framework. The focus of this Report is two-fold. First, it investigates and summarizes the lack of legal constraints on economic development to stimulate job creation and capital attraction. Inherent in this first point is a critique that residents frequently lack participation in economic development legal processes and approvals. Second, this Report provides guidance for officials in state and local government involved in planning and economic development decisions, as well as practitioners, to consider using anticipatory governance principles in practice. An urban anticipatory governance approach to economic development activity addresses society’s most complex local economic development issues, in flexible ways, allowing residents and experts to work together, with enough time for that collaboration to have a meaningful impact on decisions.

Il vissuto di bambini e adolescenti con artrite idiopatica giovanile

Chronically ill children show an increased risk of developing a psychological-psychiatric disorder, with an important impact on their quality of life. The paper describes all the cases of Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA) in the Paediatric Rheumatology Unit in Ravenna with documented psychological-behavioural problems. 23% of juvenile idiopathic arthritis patients have psychological-behavioural problems and 9% have requested cognitivebehavioural therapy, with good results. One of the most significant aspects is the treatment with methotrexate (MTX), which is an important drug in the management of JIA cases and, as it is known, is burdened with side effects such as malaise and vomiting, even before its intake. Half of the patients on MTX therapy show this "intolerance", which sometimes also leads to the voluntary withdrawal of the drug. Therefore, an anticipatory approach to these issues and an adequate and timely psychological care are increasingly necessary.

A l’envers: Setting the Stage for a Protective Environment to Deal with ‘Climate Refugees’ in Europe

Abstract The inventory of climate-related disasters is emblematic of the increasing impact of climate change and the concomitant rise in climate migration risk. It is becoming clear that, in the words of Ban Ki-moon, “no country or city—rich or poor—is immune”. At the same time, the design of normative measures is undergoing a radical redefinition, towards assuming a “preventive” role dictated by the imminent need to give a legal meaning to the uncertainty of this new epoch. The article starts from the recent adoption by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe of a resolution on “A legal status for ‘climate refugees’” to explore the potential role an anticipatory approach may play in shaping disaster-affected mobility regimes. It is timely to reflect on its legal implications by discussing emerging practices and the challenges of a normative evolution, that even if fragile, can be understood as part of an effort to reframe the international legal order towards balancing sovereign and common concerns. By considering Italy’s contribution to the debate, the article sheds light on the role of domestic actors, such as courts and local authorities, as agents for legal development in multilevel environmental migration governance.