Anticipatory Activity Research Articles

Action outcome probability influences the size of the head-fake effect in basketball

Both kinematic and contextual information (e.g., action outcome probability) play a significant role in action anticipation. However, few researchers have examined the reciprocal influence of the two types of information and fewer still have investigated this issue for deceptive actions in sports. In the present study, we investigate the impact of action outcome probability on the processing of deceptive kinematic cues for the head fake in basketball. We manipulated the probability of the action outcome to either pass the ball to the left or to the right side (i.e., 75%, 50%, 25%) and examined how this contextual information affected the influence of head orientation on pass direction judgments. Outcome probability information was either provided explicitly (Experiment 1) or implicitly (Experiment 2). Both experiments indicated an increased head-fake effect with increasing outcome probability. Moreover, the bias to respond in line with the player’s head direction increased linearly with outcome probability. Also, discriminability between deceptive and genuine actions was poorer for high outcome probability (75%) associated with head orientation than for the 25% and 50% values. Last, a stronger response bias toward the higher probability side for deceptive trials than for genuine trials was only significant when the outcome probability information was processed implicitly in Experiment 2. The results of this study fit well with recent literature on contextual information in action prediction and are discussed in light of confirmation bias and signal detection theory.

Beyond passive observation: feedback anticipation and observation activate the mirror system in virtual finger movement control via P300-BCI.

Action observation (AO) is widely used as a post-stroke therapy to activate sensorimotor circuits through the mirror neuron system. However, passive observation is often considered to be less effective and less interactive than goal-directed movement observation, leading to the suggestion that observation of goal-directed actions may have stronger therapeutic potential, as goal-directed AO has been shown to activate mechanisms for monitoring action errors. Some studies have also suggested the use of AO as a form of Brain-computer interface (BCI) feedback. In this study, we investigated the potential for observation of virtual hand movements within a P300-based BCI as a feedback system to activate the mirror neuron system. We also explored the role of feedback anticipation and estimation mechanisms during movement observation. Twenty healthy subjects participated in the study. We analyzed event-related desynchronization and synchronization (ERD/S) of sensorimotor EEG rhythms and Error-related potentials (ErrPs) during observation of virtual hand finger flexion presented as feedback in the P300-BCI loop and compared the dynamics of ERD/S and ErrPs during observation of correct feedback and errors. We also analyzed these EEG markers during passive AO under two conditions: when subjects anticipated the action demonstration and when the action was unexpected. A pre-action mu-ERD was found both before passive AO and during action anticipation within the BCI loop. Furthermore, a significant increase in beta-ERS was found during AO within incorrect BCI feedback trials. We suggest that the BCI feedback may exaggerate the passive-AO effect, as it engages feedback anticipation and estimation mechanisms as well as movement error monitoring simultaneously. The results of this study provide insights into the potential of P300-BCI with AO-feedback as a tool for neurorehabilitation.

Mindreading by body: incorporating mediolateral balance and mouse-tracking measures to examine the motor basis of adults' false-belief tracking.

The role played by motor representations in tracking others' belief-based actions remains unclear. In experiment 1, the dynamics of adults' anticipatory mediolateral motor activity (leftwards-rightwards leaning on a balance board) as well as hand trajectories were measured as they attempted to help an agent who had a true or false belief about an object's location. Participants' leaning was influenced by the agent's belief about the target's location when the agent was free to act but not when she was motorically constrained. However, the hand trajectories participants produced to provide a response were not modulated by the other person's beliefs. Therefore, we designed a simplified second experiment in which participants were instructed to click as fast as possible on the location of a target object. In experiment 2, mouse-movements deviated from an ideal direct path to the object location, with trajectories that were influenced by the location in which the agent falsely believed the object to be located. These experiments highlight that information about an agent's false-belief can be mapped onto the motor system of a passive observer, and that there are situations in which the motor system plays an important role in accurate belief-tracking.

Recent outbreaks of Marburg virus in Africa: an urgent call for public concern

Recent outbreaks of Marburg virus in Africa: an urgent call for public concern

Over wat formele anticipatie vermag: het object in Kant en Wittgenstein

On formal anticipation: the object in Kant and Wittgenstein This article discusses the affinity between Kant’s notion of objectivity and Wittgenstein’s view on the limitations of language by addressing both philosophers’ relation to the constitutive space at work in a transcendental logic. For both, the system and conceptual room hosting the activity of subjective conditionality is dynamically connected to what can be seen as an object in response to the heterogeneity between concepts and sensibility. In his work On the Genealogy of Universals. The Metaphysical Origins of Analytic Philosophy (2018) Fraser MacBride makes a plea for the importance of Kant in the history of the origin of analytical philosophy, more specifically, the philosophies of Russell, Moore and Wittgenstein. He nevertheless does so in an inadequate way, because he understands Kant from a realist perspective striving to see ‘objects’ as an awaiting reality ‘out there’ to be made our own. Contrary to that, we make the case that a transcendental dynamics of a ‘lost’ primordial captivity is at work in the process of the constitution of objects. We look into Wittgenstein’s notion of substance and the problematic subreptitious exchange between the notions of substance and attribute on the one hand and the relation between the particular and the universal according to MacBride on the other. We propose that both Kant and Wittgenstein sharpen the awareness for the transcendental anticipatory activity of a presupposition, to be seen as a crucial moment within pure formalization and logical strictness, built on a minimal ontology of openness to what is determinable within the action of determination, opposite to a realism of what is simply determined as ‘what is the case’ without taking into account the constituting subject-pole.

Anticipation of Appetitive Operant Action Induces Sustained Dopamine Release in the Nucleus Accumbens.

The mesolimbic dopamine system is implicated in signaling reward-related information as well as in actions that generate rewarding outcomes. These implications are commonly investigated in either pavlovian or operant reinforcement paradigms, where only the latter requires instrumental action. To parse contributions of reward- and action-related information to dopamine signals, we directly compared the two paradigms: male rats underwent either pavlovian or operant conditioning while dopamine release was measured in the nucleus accumbens, a brain region central for processing this information. Task conditions were identical with the exception of the operant-lever response requirement. Rats in both groups released the same quantity of dopamine at the onset of the reward-predictive cue. However, only the operant-conditioning group showed a subsequent, sustained plateau in dopamine concentration throughout the entire 5 s cue presentation (preceding the required action). This dopamine ramp was unaffected by probabilistic reward delivery, occurred exclusively before operant actions, and was not related to task performance or task acquisition as it persisted throughout the 2 week daily behavioral training. Instead, the ramp flexibly increased in duration with longer cue presentation, seemingly modulating the initial cue-onset-triggered dopamine release, that is, the reward prediction error (RPE) signal, as both signal amplitude and sustainment diminished when reward timing was made more predictable. Thus, our findings suggest that RPE and action components of dopamine release can be differentiated temporally into phasic and ramping/sustained signals, respectively, where the latter depends on the former and presumably reflects the anticipation or incentivization of appetitive action, conceptually akin to motivation.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT It is unclear whether the components of dopamine signals that are related to reward-associated information and reward-driven approach behavior can be separated. Most studies investigating the dopamine system use either pavlovian or operant conditioning, which both involve the delivery of reward and necessitate appetitive approach behavior. Thus, used exclusively, neither paradigm can disentangle the contributions of these components to dopamine release. However, by combining both paradigms in the same study, we find that anticipation of a reward-driven operant action induces a modulation of reward-prediction-associated dopamine release, producing so-called dopamine ramps. Therefore, our findings provide new insight into dopamine ramps and suggest that dopamine signals integrate reward and appetitive action in a temporally distinguishable, yet dependent, manner.

Growth Performance, Digestive Enzyme Activities, and Oxidative Stress Markers in the Proximal Intestine of European Sea Bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) Fed High Starch or Lipid Diets

The effect of different main dietary compositions on growth, anticipatory digestive enzyme activities, and oxidative status was studied in the proximal intestine of juvenile European sea bass. A control diet (C, 44% protein, 17.6% lipid, and 20% starch), three diets with increasing starch levels to test protein sparing (P36S36, P40S29, and P43S24), and two diets with high lipid content (L20S13 and L22S7) were tested. After 20 weeks, growth, digestive enzyme activities, lipid peroxidation, antioxidant enzyme activities, and G6PDH activity were measured after a 24-h fast. Sea bass fed P43S24 and L20S13 maintained an oxidative status like C fish, up-regulated CAT activity, and adjusted anticipatory protease activity. Instead, the lipid peroxidation increased in the L22S7 group, although CAT activity increased, whereas anticipatory total protease activity was downregulated. P40S29 also triggered LPO and CAT activity, but G6PDH levels diminished significantly. Moreover, an up-regulation in digestive enzyme activities was found. Finally, P36S36 fish showed less antioxidant enzyme activity and G6PDH, although their LPO tended to increase and their lipase and α-amylase activities were upregulated. In conclusion, the inclusion of carbohydrates up to 24% or lipids up to 20% is possible for this species if protein requirements are met without negative effects on growth.

The role of anticipatory and reflexive compensatory muscle activation in catching errors under load uncertainty.

This experiment investigated the role of anticipatory and reflexive compensatory neuromotor control in catching errors occurring under load uncertainty. Participants performed 64 trials of a one-handed ball catching task using visually identical balls of four different weights without knowing the weight of the ball on each trial. Anticipatory and reflexive compensatory muscle activation were recorded in five muscles (anterior deltoid, biceps brachii, wrist flexors group, triceps brachii, lumbar erector spinae) using the EMG integral. In each muscle, the anticipatory and reflexive compensatory muscle activation were compared between successful catches and catching errors for the lightest ball and the heaviest ball. Anticipatory muscle activation was not implicated in errors made with the lightest ball. However, reflexive compensatory muscle activation in the anterior deltoid, biceps brachii, and wrist flexors were implicated in errors made with the lightest ball. Specifically, catching errors with the lightest ball were characterized by elevated reflexive compensatory muscle activation. In the case of the heaviest ball, both anticipatory (anterior deltoid, wrist flexors) and reflexive compensatory muscle activation (anterior deltoid, biceps brachii, wrist flexors) were implicated in catching errors. That is, catching errors with the heaviest ball were characterized by lower anticipatory and reflexive compensatory muscle activation. Results are considered in the context of the likely influence of limb compliance in catching under load uncertainty.

The utility of impact data in flood forecast verification for anticipatory actions: Case studies from Uganda and Kenya

AbstractSkilful flood forecasts have the potential to inform preparedness actions across scales, from smallholder farmers through to humanitarian actors, but require verification first to ensure such early warning information is robust. However, verification efforts in data‐scarce regions are limited to only a few sparse locations at pre‐existing river gauges. Hence, alternative data sources are urgently needed to enhance flood forecast verification to better guide preparedness actions. In this study, we assess the usefulness of less conventional data such as flood impact data for verifying flood forecasts compared with river‐gauge observations in Uganda and Kenya. The flood impact data contains semi‐quantitative and qualitative information on the location and number of reported flood events derived from five different data repositories (Dartmouth Flood Observatory, DesInventar, Emergency Events Database, GHB, and local) over the 2007–2018 period. In addition, river‐gauge observations from stations located within the affected districts and counties are used as a reference for verification of flood forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System. Our results reveal both the potential and the challenges of using impact data to improve flood forecast verification in data‐scarce regions. From these, we provide a set of recommendations for using impact data to support anticipatory action planning.

Efforts to Prevent Work Accidents When Loading And Unloading At KMP. Portlink

Safety is a program made to the workers as well as employers attempt to prevent accidents by means of recognizing things that could potentially cause accidents as well as anticipatory action in case of accidents. The goal is to create a safe workplace so it can hit the lowest possible risk of accident. Formulated the problem in this research is a work accident prevention efforts while unloading at the MV.Portlink. The research was carried out during the period of sea practices 9 months on the ship where the author undertakes the work practices of the sea. The theory used in this research is the theory- theory, human resources management with regard to safety. The method carried out intensively, researchers participating in the long field. This type of research is qualitative, descriptive. Method of data collection is done by observation, interviews and literature study. Methods of data analysis used the assortment (triangulation), and continuously until it is saturated. From the results of this research should be known throughout a worker follows the safety training work done by the company and penggunanaan self protective tools should be an obligation for workers at the port so that all workers can avoid a fatal accident due to work.

Neural correlates of peer evaluation in irritable adolescents: Linking anticipation to receipt of social feedback

Elevated irritability during adolescence predicts mental health issues in adulthood. Social interactions commonly elicit symptoms of irritability. Prior research has traditionally examined neural activity during the anticipation of, and immediate reaction to, social feedback separately in irritable adolescents. However, studies suggest that irritable adolescents demonstrate altered brain activation when anticipating feedback, and these alterations may have downstream effects on the neural activity when actually presented with feedback. Thus, the goal of this study was to characterize the influence of irritability on the relationship between brain function during anticipation and receipt of social feedback. We leveraged the Virtual School task to mimic social interactions using dynamic stimuli. Parallel region of interest (ROI) analyses tested effects of anticipatory bilateral amygdala (or dorsal anterior cingulate cortex; dACC) activation on the dACC (or bilateral amygdala) activation during receipt of peer feedback. Parallel exploratory whole-brain analyses were conducted to identify the effects of anticipatory bilateral amygdala or dACC activation on other regions during receipt of peer feedback. In ROI analyses, more vs. less irritable adolescents showed distinct relationships between anticipatory bilateral amygdala activation and dACC activation when receiving predictably mean feedback. Across both whole-brain analyses, anticipatory bilateral amygdala and dACC activation were separately associated with activation in socioemotional regions of the brain during subsequent feedback. These relationships were modulated by irritability, and the valence and predictability of the feedback. This suggests that irritable adolescents may engage in altered emotion processing and regulation strategies, depending on the valence and predictability of social feedback.

JUSTIFICATION OF THE NECESSITY OF CREATING AN ADAPTIVE MECHANISM FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

The article is devoted to the development of a modern model of the adaptive mechanism of management by branches of the national economy, on the basis of which a systematic analysis was carried out on the example of the agrarian sector of the economy of Ukraine in the field of economic security (food security) management, which should give hope for the possibility of increasing the efficiency of the functioning of business entities, using a systematic approach in the implementation of innovative solutions in the social and organizational and economic policy of the development of the industry, as the foundation of the economy of Ukraine. It has been proven that the functioning of an agrarian entity of entrepreneurial activity in a dynamic, constantly transforming environment requires not only economic transformations, but also partnership, managerial, competitive and other communicative transformations, in order to obtain undeniable advantages in the market of agricultural products, to build a promising and effective bridgehead for expansion into global food markets and maximum prevention of possible risks that regularly arise in the external and internal environment. Therefore, it becomes obvious that the speed of these changes requires anticipatory action. It is necessary to realize that the slightest delay can throw any successful agricultural enterprise into the category of outsiders. And therefore, for the effective functioning of an agricultural enterprise, it is necessary to have its own and timely adequate policy, with the possibility of adaptation to the environment. That is why it is advisable to build the activities of agricultural enterprises on the basis of rational adaptive development, which will take into account modern trends and the most promising directions, as well as trends of European and global development of the agricultural sector.

Translating seasonal climate forecasts into water balance forecasts for decision making

Seasonal rainfall forecasts support early preparedness. These forecasts are typically disseminated at Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs), in the form of seasonal tercile probability categories—above normal, normal, below normal. However, these categories cannot be related directly to impacts on terrestrial water stores within catchments, since they are mediated by non-linear hydrological processes occurring on fine spatiotemporal scales, including rainfall partitioning into infiltration, evapotranspiration, runoff and groundwater recharge. Hydrological models are increasingly capable of capturing these processes, but there is no simple way to drive such models with a specific RCOF seasonal tercile rainfall forecast. Here we demonstrate a new method, “Quantile Bin Resampling” (QBR), for producing seasonal water forecasts for a drainage basin by integrating a tercile seasonal rainfall forecast with a hydrological model. QBR is based on mapping historical quantiles of basin-average rainfall to historical simulations of the water balance, and circumvents challenges associated with using climate model output to drive impact models directly. We evaluate QBR by generating 35 years of seasonal reforecasts for various water balance stores and fluxes for the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro basin in Kenya. Hindcasts indicate that when input tercile rainfall forecasts have skill, QBR provides accurate water forecasts at kilometre-scale resolution, which is relevant for anticipatory action down to village level. Pilot operational experimental water forecasts were produced for this basin using QBR for the 2022 March-May rainfall season, then disseminated to regional stakeholders at the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF). We discuss this initiative, along with limitations, plans and future potential of the method. Beyond the demonstrated application to water-related forecasts, QBR can be easily adapted to work with any rainfall-driven impact model. It can translate objective tercile climate probabilities into impact-relevant water balance forecasts at high spatial resolution in an efficient, transparent and flexible way.

The propensity to sign-track is associated with externalizing behavior and distinct patterns of reward-related brain activation in youth

Externalizing behaviors in childhood often predict impulse control disorders in adulthood; however, the underlying bio-behavioral risk factors are incompletely understood. In animals, the propensity to sign-track, or the degree to which incentive motivational value is attributed to reward cues, is associated with externalizing-type behaviors and deficits in executive control. Using a Pavlovian conditioned approach paradigm, we quantified sign-tracking in 40 healthy 9–12-year-olds. We also measured parent-reported externalizing behaviors and anticipatory neural activations to outcome-predicting cues using the monetary incentive delay fMRI task. Sign-tracking was associated with attentional and inhibitory control deficits and the degree of amygdala, but not cortical, activation during reward anticipation. These findings support the hypothesis that youth with a propensity to sign-track are prone to externalizing tendencies, with an over-reliance on subcortical cue-reactive brain systems. This research highlights sign-tracking as a promising experimental approach delineating the behavioral and neural circuitry of individuals at risk for externalizing disorders.

Suppression of distracting inputs by visual-spatial cues is driven by anticipatory alpha activity.

A growing body of research demonstrates that distracting inputs can be proactively suppressed via spatial cues, nonspatial cues, or experience, which are governed by more than one top-down mechanism of attention. However, how the neural mechanisms underlying spatial distractor cues guide proactive suppression of distracting inputs remains unresolved. Here, we recorded electroencephalography signals from 110 participants in 3 experiments to identify the role of alpha activity in proactive distractor suppression induced by spatial cues and its influence on subsequent distractor inhibition. Behaviorally, we found novel changes in the spatial proximity of the distractor: Cueing distractors far away from the target improves search performance for the target, while cueing distractors close to the target hampers performance. Crucially, we found dynamic characteristics of spatial representation for distractor suppression during anticipation. This result was further verified by alpha power increased relatively contralateral to the cued distractor. At both the between- and within-subjects levels, we found that these activities further predicted the decrement of the subsequent PD component, which was indicative of reduced distractor interference. Moreover, anticipatory alpha activity and its link with the subsequent PD component were specific to the high predictive validity of distractor cue. Together, our results reveal the underlying neural mechanisms by which cueing the spatial distractor may contribute to reduced distractor interference. These results also provide evidence supporting the role of alpha activity as gating by proactive suppression.

A sensorless anti-windup speed control approach to axial gap bearingless motors with nonlinear lumped mismatched disturbance observers

In this paper, sensorless robust speed control with nonlinear lumped mismatched disturbance observers for a permanent magnet type axial gap bearingless motor (AGBM) is designed. Multistage anti-windup-based dynamic surface control combined with integral backstepping control is proposed to control the motor’s axial displacement and rotor speed. The approach is against parameter uncertainties and external disturbances, improving steady-state accuracy, eliminating the derivative explosion phenomenon, no chattering problem, and reducing the magnitude of the control system when current saturation occurs. In addition, a novel nonlinear lumped mismatched disturbance observer is proposed to improve the approach under unmodeled dynamics and external disturbances. To obtain high-accuracy tracking control, the control system includes the robust controller combined with the disturbance observers and anticipatory activation of anti-windup (AW) compensation, which means the controller is more complex. Then, to design a sensorless robust speed control for the motor, the rotor position and speed observer require higher accuracy. High-gain back-EMF observer combined with an improved phase-locked loop is proposed to estimate rotor angular position and speed even when the motor speed is reversed. Overall stability of closed-loop system control, including a sensorless speed control approach for motors using back-EMF estimation combined with saturation of the currents and lumped disturbance observers, is mathematically proven. Finally, the simulation results under measurement noise show that the proposed control system are obtained the effectiveness, feasibility, and robustness.

Engagement of the brain orexin system in activity-based anorexia behaviour in mice

While excessive physical activity is common amongst anorexia nervosa (AN) patients, contributing to their low body weight, little is known about the underlying biology and effective treatments targeting the hyperactivity are lacking. Given the role of orexin in arousal, physical activity and energy expenditure, we sought to investigate i) the extent to which orexin neurons are activated during severe anorectic state in the activity-based anorexia (ABA) mouse model, and ii) if the dual orexin receptor antagonist suvorexant can reduce physical activity during ABA. The Fos-TRAP2 technique enable us to visually capture active neurons (Fos expressing) during severe anorectic state in the ABA mouse model, and by immunohistochemistry, determine the extent to which these active neurons are orexin positive. In addition, suvorexant was administered peripherally to ABA mice and running activity was monitored. We found that a large population of orexin neurons in the hypothalamus are activated by ABA and that peripheral administration of suvorexant decreases food anticipatory activity in these mice. We conclude that orexin may be a suitable target to treat hyperactivity in AN and recommend further studies to examine the efficacy of suvorexant in aiding AN patients to control their drive for hyperactivity.

The Effect of Additional Leg Supports in Control of Posture in Sitting

The objective of the study was to investigate the effect of leg supports on the anticipatory and compensatory postural adjustments of sitting subjects exposed to external perturbations in the anterior-posterior direction. Ten young participants received perturbations applied to the upper body while sitting on a stool with an anterior or posterior leg support and when using a footrest. Electromyographic activities of the trunk and leg muscles and center of pressure displacements were recorded and analyzed during the anticipatory and compensatory phases of postural control. Anticipatory activities were observed in the tibialis anterior, biceps femoris, and erector spinae muscles in the anterior leg support condition. Early onset of muscle activity was observed in the tibialis anterior, biceps femoris, rectus femoris, and erector spinae muscles in the posterior leg support condition compared to the feet support condition. Moreover, to maintain balance participants utilized co-contraction of muscles as the main mechanism of balance control in sitting regardless of the availability of the anterior or posterior leg support. There was no effect of a leg support on center of pressure displacements. The outcome of the study provides a background for future investigations of the effect of leg supports on control of balance in sitting when perturbed.

Analysis of the Anticipatory Behavior Formation Mechanism Induced by Methamphetamine Using a Single Hair.

While the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) coordinates many daily rhythms, some circadian patterns of expression are controlled by SCN-independent systems. These include responses to daily methamphetamine (MAP) injections. Scheduled daily injections of MAP resulted in anticipatory activity, with an increase in locomotor activity immediately prior to the time of injection. The MAP-induced anticipatory behavior is associated with the induction and a phase advance in the expression rhythm of the clock gene Period1 (Per1). However, this unique formation mechanism of MAP-induced anticipatory behavior is not well understood. We recently developed a micro-photomultiplier tube (micro-PMT) system to detect a small amount of Per1 expression. In the present study, we used this system to measure the formation kinetics of MAP-induced anticipatory activity in a single whisker hair to reveal the underlying mechanism. Our results suggest that whisker hairs respond to daily MAP administration, and that Per1 expression is affected. We also found that elevated Per1 expression in a single whisker hair is associated with the occurrence of anticipatory behavior rhythm. The present results suggest that elevated Per1 expression in hairs might be a marker of anticipatory behavior formation.

Forecasting, thresholds, and triggers: Towards developing a Forecast-based Financing system for droughts in Mozambique

To support Mozambique in the mitigation and management of droughts, the World Food Programme (WFP) is seeking to implement innovative approaches to protect people’s livelihood who face drought risk. The approach that has potential of closing the humanitarian funding gap is Forecast-based Financing (FbF). FbF enables anticipatory actions against droughts using seasonal forecasts, which are implemented to reduce impacts in the critical window between a forecast and an event. An important step for leveraging seasonal forecasting information to implement FbF is the development of an operational trigger system for drought anticipatory action. Our study describes WFP’s FbF system for droughts being tested in Mozambique using the ECMWF 7-month rainfall ensemble forecast. We showed that the forecasting information has skill to detect most of the drought events, measured by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with lead time varying from 6 to 1 month. We observed that information of different lead times produces a marginal improvement on the average skill of the predictions. After deriving probability values that can trigger anticipatory action, we found that the overall system yields a mean Hit Rate and False Alarm Ratio of 74 % and 59 %, respectively. However, there are opportunities for reducing the false alarm ratio and increasing the hit rate when focusing on key specific lead times. We believe that implementing FbF against droughts based on forecast information can help humanitarian organizations to reduce losses to livelihoods and cost of humanitarian operations while supporting communities in a more dignified manner.