Anticipation Strategies Research Articles

Microscopic simulation of bicycle traffic flow incorporating cyclists’ heterogeneous dynamics and non-lane-based movement strategies

Cycling as a mode of transport is on an upward trend as a low-emission alternative to driving in urbanized areas nowadays. With the increasing number of cyclists, it is of great importance to assess the capacity of cycling infrastructure in practice. Simulation models are useful tools to investigate bicycle flow performance considering cyclists’ distinct moving behaviors. However, existing bicycle simulation models are restricted by either space discretization, lane-based setup, adaptation from models for car traffic, or complicated calibration requirement in a force-based environment. In addition, cyclists’ decision-making ability in the operational-level cycling behavior are not well-captured in these models. This paper proposes a comprehensible microscopic bicycle simulation model which includes a detailed decision-making process and the ability to simulate continuous-space lateral movement. The model consists of three levels, maneuver decision, movement planning, and physical acceleration. It is able to simulate bicycle flow dynamics in undersaturated traffic conditions on an exclusive bike path. As we do not intend to show the empirical validity of the proposed model, the simulation experiment aims at verifying the model and exploring bicycle flow performance in various scenarios by estimating the fundamental diagrams (FDs). The effect of different path widths on bicycle flow capacity is first explored. Other behavioral factors, including desired speed heterogeneity, overtaking incentive, and safety region size perceived by cyclists, which can potentially influence the shape of the FD are also tested. The model can be further extended to simulate relatively complex cycling behavior with cooperative and anticipative strategies and investigate bicycle flow characteristics in congested traffic conditions.

Workers knowledge and anticipation in reducing adverse impacts of climate change

Climate change has become a global environmental issue that impacts all sectors of life, including agriculture. This study aims to determine workers’ knowledge of climate change in Karang Anyar Village Hamlet VII A Beringin Sub-district and workers’ anticipation strategies in reducing the adverse effects of climate change. This study used a qualitative approach. Informants were selected based on the criteria of wet-rice workers who have been farming for ten years by implementing semi-organic farming. Data were collected through interview techniques and literature study. Data analysis was conducted using the descriptive analysis method. The study results showed that workers know about climate change limited to seeing natural signs. Adverse impacts of climate change include a decrease in rice productivity. Workers anticipate reducing the adverse impacts of climate change by using rice varieties that are resistant to climate change, reducing the use of chemical insecticides and vegetable pesticides, and implementing a sustainable agricultural system.

Strategies for Anticipating Speech Production Errors in the Public Speaking Context: Psycholinguistic Analysis and Improving Public Speaking Ability

This research explores and analyzes various aspects related to public speaking and speech production errors in real life contexts. Through a literature review, this research explains the types of speech production errors, their causes, and strategies to anticipate these errors. This research also links speech production errors with public speaking, highlighting the importance of psycholinguistic understanding in this regard. The research results show that anticipating speech production errors is the key to improving public speaking skills. Anticipation strategies include preparing the topic well, maintaining composure, focusing, and using familiar vocabulary. Speech production errors can disrupt the flow of a presentation, so a deep understanding of these aspects is very important in public speaking.

Relationship between open innovation decision-making and behavioural strategy

ABSTRACT The aim of this study was to investigate how decision-making styles affect open innovation in the hospitality industry and whether behavioural strategies have any impact on this relationship. Survey data from 204 managers were analysed using the PLS-SEM method. The results demonstrate the effects of rational and intuitive decision-making styles on open innovation. It was observed that managers with either rational or intuitive decision-making styles were more likely to engage in open innovation. In contrast, objective decision making has an adverse impact on open innovation. Furthermore, most managers opt for the anticipation strategy in behavioural decision making. The relationship between decision-making styles and open innovation was not moderate by any other behavioural decision-making tendencies. The study eventually provides implications for the literature and practice.

Prediction and Comparison of Bankruptcy Models in Banking Sector Companies in Indonesia

The Covid-19 pandemic, coupled with the economic recession from 2019 to 2022, has adversely impacted various industries, leading to bankruptcies. Among the affected sectors, the banking industry faced significant challenges, experiencing disruptions in credit processes and fund distribution due to diminished purchasing power. This situation poses a severe threat to the banking sector, necessitating the monitoring of financial conditions through bankruptcy analysis as an early warning system for company performance. This study investigates potential differences in the results of financial distress prediction models—Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, Grover, and Ohlson—during the abnormal conditions of the Covid-19 pandemic. Using purposive sampling of banking companies listed on the IDX from 2019 to 2022, the study divided the samples into financial distress and non-financial distress categories. Analysis involved tests for multicollinearity assumptions, logistic regression, and accuracy/error rate calculations. The findings reveal variations in the predictive abilities of the Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, Grover, and Ohlson models. The Grover model emerged as the most accurate, with a 60% accuracy rate in predicting bankruptcy, while Altman, Springate, and Zmijewski models demonstrated low predictive values (0%, 0%, and 15% accuracy, respectively). The simplicity of the Grover model's measurement indicators, incorporating capital adequacy, EBIT, and ROA, offers a comprehensive view of bankruptcy prediction ratios. Moreover, stringent internal risk analysis and external factors, such as regulatory interventions, contribute to keeping banks resilient amid global economic crises. The research suggests that banking companies can benefit from employing the Grover method for bankruptcy analysis as part of their future anticipation strategy.

Accessible conferences for undergraduate student presenters in Macao (China) through the lens of usability theory

This exploratory study examined the accessibility of research conferences to undergraduate student presenters in Macao (China) by utilizing the usability theory. Twenty-two higher education institutions (HEIs) students who presented at undergraduate conferences were interviewed to gain an understanding of the perceived usability of the conferences’ services and facilities, and their impacts on their overall experiences and intention to participate in future conferences. The results revealed that student presenters considered the following as useable and accessible facilities and services: having the opportunity to rehearse for presentation and visit the conference venue before the conference, the lunch break, and the flat venue seating arrangement. Tea breaks, signage, and some equipment used for presentation were considered non-usable and inaccessible. The perceived usability was associated with the student presenters’ judgment of the supportiveness of services and facilities about their abilities, limitations, and tasks. Despite several perceived non-usable features, interviewees acquired good experiences and would consider presenting at another conference with the adoption of some anticipation strategies. This study offers a new perspective to approach accessible conferences for undergraduate student presenters. It advocated the importance of understanding users’ perceptions on usability and the personal–environment relationships. Practical suggestions were also offered.

Платформа поглибленого навчання для аналізу лікувальних факторів в інтернеті медичних речей

Поява технологій інтернету речей IoT (Internet-of-Things), таких які використовуються у дистанційних застосунках для контролю здоров’я, призвели до революційних змін у традиційній медичній допомозі та лікуванні. Крім того, підхід, застосований для отримання глибинного аналізу, на основі ретельного дослідження елементів способу життя та діяльності, є критично важливим для успіху послуг спеціальної медичної допомоги та профілактики захворювань. Алгоритми відбору та класифікації розумних даних дозволяють досліджувати захворювання та прогнозувати аномальні стани здоров’я. Стратегія згорткових нейронних мереж CNN (convolutional neural network) застосовується для передбачення таких аномалій, оскільки вона дозволяє успішно визначити знання, які є важливими для прогнозування захворювання на основі нечітких записів медичної картки хворого. Навпаки, якщо використовується повністю зв’язана топологія мережі, стратегія CNN потребує величезного об’єму пам’яті. Крім того, аналіз складності моделі може виникати у зв’язку зі збільшенням кількості шарів. Таким чином, запропоновано стратегію визначення та прогнозування цілі CNN на основі коефіцієнта кореляції Пірсона PCC (Pearson correlation coefficient), і роботи стандартного шаблону для розгляду цих недоліків моделі CNN. Вона побудована в межах цієї структури і застосовується для цілей класифікації. В початковому прихованому шарі вибираються найбільш важливі фактори, пов’язані зі станом здоров’я, а в наступному шарі здійснюється аналіз коефіцієнта кореляції для розділення факторів стану здоров’я на позитивно і негативно корельовані групи. Аналіз виявлення регулярних структур серед розподілених параметрів стану здоров’я також виявляє поведінку регулярних структур. Результатом цієї моделі є розподіл на фактори надмірної ваги, підвищеного тиску та фактори, що пов’язані з діабетом, при відомих рівнях кореляції. Для зменшення впливу парадигми відкриття знань, що є типовим для CNN, використано два окремих набори даних. Експериментальні результати показали, що пропонована модель переважає три інші методи машинного навчання, потребуючи менших розрахункових витрат.

Anticipate, wait or don't invest? The strategic net present value approach to study expansion decisions under policy uncertainty

AbstractDutch dairy farmers used different investment strategies in their production capacity in the periods around the abolishment of the European Union milk quota. Some farmers anticipated and expanded their production, others waited till expected policies were implemented or did not change their production. We develop a theoretical framework that integrates investment strategies—anticipating, waiting, or not investing—in the presence of policy uncertainty. We provide a numerical illustration of the framework to a typical Dutch dairy farm considering to expand the milk production. Results show that farmers would anticipate when they expect that the right system will be implemented with delay and will have low financial consequences. A low risk aversion reinforces the adoption of the anticipation strategy. The implications for policy and practice are discussed [EconLit Citatons: D22, Q00, Q18].

Novel Antibacterial Activity of Febuxostat, an FDA-Approved Antigout Drug against Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection.

Accumulating evidence suggests that drug repurposing has drawn attention as an anticipative strategy for controlling tuberculosis (TB), considering the dwindling drug discovery and development pipeline. In this study, we explored the antigout drug febuxostat and evaluated its antibacterial activity against Mycobacterium species. Based on MIC evaluation, we found that febuxostat treatment significantly inhibited mycobacterial growth, especially that of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) and its phylogenetically close neighbors, M. bovis, M. kansasii, and M. shinjukuense, but these microorganisms were not affected by allopurinol and topiroxostat, which belong to a similar category of antigout drugs. Febuxostat concentration-dependently affected Mtb and durably mediated inhibitory functions (duration, 10 weeks maximum), as evidenced by resazurin microtiter assay, time-kill curve analysis, phenotypic susceptibility test, and the Bactec MGIT 960 system. Based on these results, we determined whether the drug shows antimycobacterial activity against Mtb inside murine bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMDMs). Notably, febuxostat markedly suppressed the intracellular growth of Mtb in a dose-dependent manner without affecting the viability of BMDMs. Moreover, orally administered febuxostat was efficacious in a murine model of TB with reduced bacterial loads in both the lung and spleen without the exacerbation of lung inflammation, which highlights the drug potency. Taken together, unexpectedly, our data demonstrated that febuxostat has the potential for treating TB.

Shot deception in basketball: Gaze and anticipation strategy in defence.

Anticipation of teammates and opponents is a critical factor in many sports played in interactive environments. Deceptive actions are used in sports such as basketball to counteract anticipation of an opponent. In this study, we investigated the effects of shot deception on the players' anticipation behaviour in basketball. Thirty one basketball players (15 expert, 16 novice) watched life-sized videos of basketball players performing real shots or shot fakes aimed at the basket. Four different shot outcomes were presented in the video stimuli: a head fake, a ball fake, a high shot fake, and a genuine shot. The videos were temporally occluded at three different time points (-160ms, -80ms, 0ms to ball release) during a shooting motion. The participants had to perform a basketball-related response action to either shots or shot fakes. Response accuracy, response time, and decision confidence were recorded along with gaze behaviour. Anticipation accuracy was reduced at later occlusion points for fake shooting actions. For expert athletes, this effect occurred at later occlusion points compared to novices. The gaze analysis of successful and unsuccessful shot anticipations revealed more gaze fixations towards the hip and legs in successful anticipations, whereas more fixations towards the ball and the head were found in shots unsuccessfully anticipated. It is proposed that hip and leg regions may contain causal information concerning the vertical trajectory of the shooter and identifying this information may be important for perceiving genuine and deceptive shots in basketball.

Seize the moment: the role of scrub nurses’ proactivity in microsurgical operating-room collaborations

ABSTRACT The required skills for medical personnel in surgical operating rooms are not confined to medical and technical expertise. To understand how scrub nurses perform their critical role, cognitive, social, and collaborative skills are at the centre of interest. To navigate in a life-critical environment and react both appropriately and in a timely manner to the surgeon's actions, nurses need to have a fast and accurate understanding of the situation. We present how this reading of the situation is conducted during microsurgeries, where a surgical microscope takes a central role in the treatment. We employed contextual observation, gaze-tracking, video recordings, and interviews to describe the reliance of the surgeons’ work on the microscope, as well as the situation-understanding strategies of the nurses in such a setting. Also, we present pieces of evidence of anticipation strategies that the nurses exploit in the face of challenges due to the main surgeon’s lack of attention toward them because of the constant use of the microscope. To ameliorate these circumstances, the scrub nurse proactively employs a set of mechanisms to obtain and maintain situation awareness. Lastly, we present the implications of future technologies for operating rooms aiming to improve collaborative microsurgical work and patient safety.

Time-To-Collision Models for Single-File Pedestrian Motion

We apply the concept of time-to-collision (TTC) to the modeling of pedestrian dynamics. The TTC combines the spatial distances with the velocities to quantify the 'distance' to a collision. Therefore, it is a promising candidate for modeling the interactions between pedestrians. Empirical studies also indicate that the interaction between pedestrians can be described by the TTC: While the pair distribution of the distances, i.e. the probability of two pedestrians to have a certain spatial distance, was found to strongly depend on the relative velocity, the TTC accurately parametrizes its pair distribution. However, there are still few pedestrian models that use the TTC. After giving a general definition of the TTC, we present the widely used approximations for its calculation, especially in a one-dimensional setting. Combined with a desired time-gap, these give rise to different models, namely an Optimal-Velocity model and a new Time-to-Collision model. The TTC model exhibits, however, generic inconsistencies which are related to the estimates we use to approximate the speed of the predecessor. The estimates have a large impact on the dynamics and must therefore be interpreted as reflecting the pedestrians behavior, i.e. as anticipation strategies. We propose new estimates for the predecessor's speed. These give rise to a rich family of models based on the TTC which are analyzed by means of linear stability analysis and simulations.

Anticipative Strategy of Understanding and Attitude of Radicalism During the Covid-19 Pandemic at Nahdlatul Ulum Islamic Boarding School Soreang Maros

This study aims to analyze anticipatory strategies for understanding radicalism during the COVID-19 pandemic at the Nahdlatul Ulum Islamic Boarding School, Soreang Maros. This research is qualitative research with a phenomenological approach. Collecting data using the methods: of interviews, observation, and documentation. The examination of the validity of the data in this study was carried out by perseverance of Observation, Triangulation, Description of details, and Auditing. The results of the study indicate that the dynamics of the life of Islamic boarding schools have entered a stage of rapid progress in many ways. The development of contemporary issues from various fields and aspects of life, including the COVID-19 pandemic outside the pesantren, has also not gone unnotified. Including the issue of the rise and development of radicalism in the global community. In addition, the Nadlatul Ulum Islamic Boarding School is consistent in building fortresses of morality, solidity, solidarity, control, and collaborativecommunal as a force to maintain its internal harmonious stability from radicalism and behavior.

Dynamic Sight Translation: A Simultaneous Interpreting Strategies Driver

This paper reports on eliciting anticipation strategy, a common strategy in simultaneous interpreting (SI) via sight translation (ST). A new ST variant, the dynamic type, was designed in a modular and progressive manner to facilitate the trainees’ transition into SI at the early stage of learning. The new tool was used and tested under a framework of action research that was conducted continuously over 3 years. Despite some limitations, the longitudinal study finds that the newly designed set of exercises is not only a skill development and transfer enabler but also a contributor to eliciting SI-related strategies. This article explains the validity of the exercise design for SI teaching. It then presents data analysis indicating the efficacy of dynamic ST in helping students draw on anticipation strategy.

Legacy of ideas of the Javanese Community in the cultivation of medicinal plants in anticipation of climate change in Indonesia

Climate change is an unavoidable consequence of global warming, which is believed will have a broad impact on numerous aspects of life, especially for mountain communities. Changes in rainfall patterns, increased frequency of extreme climate events, along rising air temperatures and sea levels are some of the serious issues faced by the global community. Mountain communities have their local wisdom for dealing with climate change. The huge impact of climate change requires an active effort to anticipate the widespread effects using mitigation and adaptation strategies. This research investigates the legacy of ideas of the Javanese mountain community in anticipating climate change. The research method is qualitative and uses an explorative approach to examine how the legacy of ideas of the Javanese community, combined with local potential, is used as a strategy for anticipating climate change. The research results show that the cultivation of medicinal plants based on ancestral heritage is used as an anticipation strategy for dealing with uncertainties in climate and weather. Since ancient times, mountain communities have believed that the cultivation of medicinal plants in mountain regions offers an alternative source of subsistence if other food and vegetable crops fail to thrive. Medicinal plants are not only consumed by the local community but can also be sold since they are believed to have a relatively stable price and a clear consumer market. They can be consumed by all segments of the community, for stamina, to treat diseases, and also for beauty, and to promote domestic harmony.

CREATIVE MARKETING AS A TOOL OF INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECONOMY

The article identifies the most important areas of development of creative marketing, which are the result of creative "imagination" of the marketer. In essence, this is the freedom to make a marketing decision based on market conditions, experience, knowledge, consumer behavior in each market segment. Thus, a great responsibility in this case lies with the marketer, who must have a non-standard thinking, the talent to creatively perceive the situation in the market and use them, as well as be able to choose a non-traditional marketing option that would immediately attract consumers, make them stay longer near this product or its advertising. This is the main difference between creative and traditional marketing - the ability to attract the attention of the buyer, to surprise him. The marketer must have a lateral thinking, which is to shift from traditional thinking, breaking the standard approaches to any particular idea, finding an original way to express it, creating something radically new. The article proposes a synthetic technology of innovation, which includes all components of the socio-economic system: society, economy and society and creates a sequence. It is proved that the use of a creative marketing approach is reflected in the product and its characteristics: novelty of the product, non-standard product, purposefulness in use, development. The article reveals the essence, advantages and disadvantages of implementing creative marketing strategies, including anticipation strategy and reactive strategy. Introduction and use of a creative approach to marketing activities of the enterprise is a key element of modern entrepreneurship, which plays a key role in achieving goals. The right combination of creative approach and pragmatic view is the key to the effective functioning of the enterprise in modern market conditions.

Tackling regional skill shortages: from single employer strategies to local partnerships

ABSTRACT This research examines regional skill problems and the strategies adopted to reduce skill shortages by a set of employers (n = 16). The data collected in 2019 in a northern region in Portugal indicate considerable and persistent shortages of engineering and IT graduates and non-graduates for operational jobs. The employers implement anticipative strategies interacting with the education system, and the city council has developed a multi-stakeholder partnership. However, the most widespread strategy is remedial and consists of employer-provided training. Employers believe that the partnership has been a fruitful way of expanding economic activities, but further efforts are required to alleviate skill shortages.

Water Allocation Efforts with Water Balance Analysis in the Jatiroto Sub-Watershed and Asem Sub Watershed, Lumajang Districts

Currently, water demand is increasing, both domestic, industrial and agricultural water needs. However, the increase in water demand is not due to an increase in the water availability due to changes in land use and other factors that pose a threat to increased exploitation of water resources. So it is necessary to analyze and evaluate the water needs to anticipate the impact of drought in the Asem-Tekung-Jatirowo sub watersheds. The calculation of water supply and water demand can be carried out using the water balance method, assisted by the WEAP (Evaporation and Water Planning) program, through data integration of streamflow analysis and water user in the river reach. The results showed that the sub-watershed area showed a deficit of water in 2013, with the Jatiroto region having the highest air deficit of 1.58 million m3 or 44.2%. Based on this analysis, urgently needed a recommendation of drought anticipation strategies these are planting patterns to adjust condition of water supply, storage of water reserves, conservation of critical land, and repair of channels that are at risk of water seepage.

Indian State or City Covid-19 Cases Outbreak Forecast utilizing Machine Learning Models

Several episode expectation models for COVID-19 are being used by officials all over the world to make informed decisions and maintain necessary control steps. AI (ML)-based deciding elements have proven their worth in forecasting perioperative outcomes in order to enhance the dynamic of the predicted course of activities. For a long time, ML models have been used in a variety of application areas that needed identifiable evidence and prioritization of unfavorable factors for a danger. To cope with expecting problems, a few anticipation strategies are commonly used. This study demonstrates the ability of ML models to predict the number of future patients affected by COVID-19, which is now regarded as a potential threat to humanity. In particular, four standard evaluating models, such as Linear Regression, Support Vector Machine, LASSO, Exponential Smoothing, and Decision Tree, were used in this investigation to hypothesis the compromising variables of COVID-19. Any one of the models makes three types of predictions, for example, the number of recently Positive cases after and before preliminary vexing, the amount of passing's after and before preliminary lockdown, and the number of recuperations after and before lockdown. The outcomes demonstrate with parameters like R2 Score, Adjust R2 score, MSE, MAE and RMSE on Indian datasets.

Switch Off "Parallel Circuit": Insight of New Strategy of Simultaneously Suppressing Canonical and Noncanonical Inflammation Activation in Endotoxemic Mice.

Sepsis is a life-threatening inflammatory disease with a high mortality rate and huge implicative costs. Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) from gram-negative bacteria activates toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) and may trigger septic shock. However, potent TLR4 inhibitors TAK-242 and Eritoran have been terminated in phase III clinical trials because of inadequate efficacy. Inspired by the recently discovered intracellular, noncanonical LPS receptors, it is considered that TLR4-mediated canonical and caspase-mediated noncanonical inflammation can be seen as a "parallel circuit" to induce sepsis and endotoxemia. Logically, it is proposed that the dual inhibition of caspase-4/5/11 and TLR4 can be a potential novel strategy to develop new therapeutics for sepsis. To verify the strategy, two potential compounds are found: Luteolin and Diacerein with substantial antiinflammatory activity in vitro and in vivo. The results show that the survival rate of endotoxemic mice treated by these compounds is increased remarkably. LPS-induced organ damage is also prevented. Moreover, these compounds result in physical and mental recovery for endotoxemic mice. Notably, Luteolin exhibits better antiinflammatory activity than TAK-242 at comparable TLR4-inhibitory levels. These findings indicate that simultaneous inhibition of TLR4 and caspase-4/5/11 can be an anticipative strategy defeating sepsis and endotoxemia, which can be translated into significant medical and economic benefits.