anti-Russian Sanctions Research Articles

The Macrostructure of Production in 2016

For the Russian economy, the year 2016 was a period of its gradual adaptation to the new conditions determined by low prices for hydrocarbons and mineral resources coupled with the continuing anti-Russian sanctions and Russian counter-sanctions. The annual and quarter-by-quarter behavior of the economy indicated a gradual relaxation of the current crisis with regard to practically all major macro-parameters, brought about by a notable drop in the rate of inflation, changes in the structure of production, the fall in costs resulting from the ruble’s depreciation, progress of the import substitution processes, and a relative stability in the labor market.

Anti-Russian Sanctions

In March 2014, the United States and European Union announced the imposition of sanctions against Russia through measures affecting the Russian Federation in order for the country to meet unconditionally all the demands of the United States and some Western countries against Russia’s position on the issue of Ukraine. The nature of the sanctions suggest they are aimed at Russia’s international isolation, weakening its economy, discrediting its president, and creating the image of a rogue state. Russia is not the first country against which the United States has applied sanctions without United Nations approval. The author cites examples of these sanctions, compares the anti-Russian sanctions with those carried out in secret under President Reagan to weaken the Soviet economy, and addresses the potential negative consequences for Russia due to the economic and financial sanctions imposed on it.

Foreign Policy and Economy of Slovakia: the Russian Vector

The lasting ties of cooperation and cooperation that have been formed for several decades in the Czechoslovakia-Russia format, and after the «velvet divorce» and Slovakia’s independence and sovereignty in 1993 - in the format Slovakia-Russia prove that Russia has been and still is remains a stable, reliable and strategically important partner of Slovakia not only in the areas of foreign policy and diplomacy, economic and economic cooperation, education, culture, but also in the energy and non-governmental organizations. The article analyzes in detail the foreign political and economic cooperation of Slovakia and Russia, while taking into account the transformations taking place today in the international arena. In particular, special attention is paid to the position of Slovakia on the Crimean issue and the problem of anti-Russian sanctions, which at the moment are among the most discussed topics regarding not only European political structures, but also EU member states, including Slovakia. The author proves that the anti-Russian sanctions introduced by the West in 2014 and annually prolonged, after three years showed their senselessness and counterproductive nature, since their main goal - to drive out Russia into the corner of the international arena - was not achieved. The long-term «freezing» of political and economic relations between the West and Russia, on the contrary, caused significant damage to EU member states, including Slovakia, which is a subcontractor of large states. The negative impact of anti-Russian sanctions and the subsequent imposition of retaliatory sanctions on Russia adversely affected the Slovak economy, primarily because of the «forced» reduction in Slovak exports to Russia. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Slovak government is extremely concerned about the current situation and officially expresses interest in the complete cancellation or at least partial easing of anti-Russian sanctions. Analyzing the current situation, the author also draws attention to the personal factor that directly influences the formation of the foreign policy direction of Slovakia in relation to Russia. The analysis is supported by statements of high-ranking political figures and representatives of political forces of Slovakia.

To the Issue about the History of Anti-Russian Sanctions

To the Issue about the History of Anti-Russian Sanctions

РОССИЙСКО-ЕВРОПЕЙСКИЕ ИНВЕСТИЦИИ: ДИНАМИКА И СТРУКТУРА В УСЛОВИЯХ САНКЦИЙ

The paper characterizes the main trends of direct investment from the EU to Russia in connection with the introduction of the EU anti-Russian sanctions. The author analyzes the dynamics of foreign direct investment from European Union countries in the Russian economy, their industry structure. On the basis of the conducted analysis the author comes to the conclusion that in 2014-2016 the existing problems in the investment relations between the European Union and the Russian Federation to a significant extent, are not the direct result of the sanctions. The sanctions only exacerbated tensions that had already formed at the turn of the century.

POSITIONS OF THE VISEGRAD FOUR COUTRIES AND THE BALTIC STATES ON THE RUSSIANUKRAINIAN CONFLICT

The article analyses the positions of the Visegrad Group and the Baltic countries on the Russia-Ukraine conflict that erupted in 2014. The authors prove that Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia are united by perception that the Russian aggression in Ukraine is a threat to their national security, they support for tough policy of anti-Russian sanctions in the international arena, and assist Ukraine and the level of declarations and at the level of action. Nonetheless , level of their participation and support for Ukraine depends on their actual capabilities and domestic and foreign policy priorities. Reactions of other V4 countries to events in Ukraine are more restrained and vary from quiet pragmatism in Slovakia to clear pro-Russian voices in the Czech Republic and Hungary. It is unlikely, however, that their position can be a real obstacle to the implementation of the common EU action in the near future.

Energeticheskaya strategiya Rossii v usloviyakh ekonomicheskogo krizisa

The article is devoted to the transformation of the energy strategy of Russia in the conditions of the current economic crisis. The special attention is paid to current trends in the sphere of international relations having a decisive influence on the formation of Russia's energy strategy. The authors point to the crisis of the modern world, the deepening of interstate contradictions, the expansion of confrontation, the revision of the uniform principles of trade, established by the World Trade Organization, the changes in the global financial system. The authors investigate the possibility of political arrangements between the leading suppliers of oil on the destabilization of the oil market in order to achieve geopolitical goals. In the article special attention is also paid to the issue of political motivation of anti-Russian sanctions directed at impeding Russia's development and its Fuel & Energy Complex, in particular. Today, against the background of the current political situation, the energy strategy of Russia is exposed to adjustment. The country has the important task of ensuring technological independence of the energy sector on the basis of import substitution of the equipment, diversification of the directions of export of energy resources, preservation of leading positions in the world market of peaceful nuclear energy, etc. The authors conclude that the energy strategy of Russia is important part of foreign policy strategy of the country, and it is focused on practical cooperation with all countries and is aimed at protecting interests of the state.

EUROPE INTHE CROSSHAIRS

(By Polina Khimshiashvili. RBC Daily, May 30, 2016, p. 2. Condensed text:) [Russian President] Vladimir Putin visited a European Union country for the first time since November 2015. While in Greece, he saw tourism potential. But [from his Athens press conference] he warned that if NATO’s missile defense shield expands, they will find themselves the targets of Russian missiles. ... was Vladimir Putin’s first visit to Greece since 2007. Despite the long hiatus, relations between Moscow and Athens remained strong. In the wake of Russia’s annexation of the Crimea [see Current Digest, Vol. 66, No. 12, pp. 3 - 11 ]and the start of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, Greece has remained one of Moscow’s main EU partners (Greece has been a member of the EU since 1981, and of NATO since 1952). Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras visited Russia twice in 2015:He came to the Kremlin in April [see Current Digest, Vol. 67, No. 15, pp. 17 - 18 ], and attended the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June. In January 2016, Putin and Greek President [Prokopis] Pavlopoulos opened the Year of Greece in Russia and vice versa. ... On Friday [May 27] in Athens, Tsipras told the Russian president that [Greece] made a strategic choice in favor of strengthening ties with Russia, since weshare historically close religious and spiritual bonds.However, these close spiritual bonds are not reflected on the economic level, both leaders admitted. Trade turnover has been falling since 2013. In 2014, it amounted to $4.17 billion, a drop of 39% from the previous year. In 2015, trade turnover fell by another 34%, coming in at $2.7 billion, Putin said during a joint press conference. ... Russian presidential aide YuryUshakov said the decline in trade was due to [Western] sanctions and currency fluctuations in both countries. During a briefing in Moscow on Wednesday, he said that Russia is not going to lift the food embargo [it introduced in response to Western sanctions] for certain EU countries. Finally, Tsipras acknowledged during a press conference that his country is interested in supplying agricultural products to Russia, but that this could be done by establishing joint enterprises.. . . ... Presidential aide YuryUshakov said that the politicians touched on issues of bilateral cooperation during the talks. According to Ushakov, the talks did not include the issue of missile defense, with which Putin started the press conference. But it is this issue that drew the Russian leader’s harshest rhetoric. ... Responding to a question on how security-related issues affect economic cooperation in Europe, Putin stated that deployingUS missile defense components in Romania would negatively impact this aspect. will be forced to take the necessary steps. And while yesterday parts of Romania had no idea what it meant to be in the crosshairs, today we will have to take certain steps to ensure ... our security.*** The same thing applies to Poland, Putin warned. ... He said that Russia has been repeating this like a mantra since the early 2000s, but that still no one listens to us. The whole world has seen our capabilities, and the capabilities of our medium-range ground- and sea-launched missiles. We are not violating [any treaties], but the ground-based Iskander [missile] complexes with a range of up to 500 kilometers have also proven themselves, the Russian president said in reference to possible countermeasures. ... In response to Putin’s threats, Polish Foreign Minister WitoldWaszczykowski issued the standard statement that Russia is not under threat: This system is to defend Europe against a missile attack from the Middle East. He stressed that the military presence of the US and NATO forces is a response to very aggressive behavior and threats from the Russian authorities. ... Putin also spoke harshly about energy projects with the EU. We need preliminary guarantees, not just conversations about how this is of great mutual interest - we alreadyfell for that once, and we’re not spending money on these [empty promises] anymore, he said in outlining the prerequisites necessary for future energy projects.He recalled the fate of South Stream, which Moscow scrapped after failing to get the go-ahead from the European Commission, even though work on [the pipeline] had already begun [see Current Digest, Vol. 66, No. 49, pp. 8 - 10]. ... Commenting on Putin’s statements regarding missile defense, energy projects and Ukraine, Tsipras repeatedly stressed his country’s readiness to serve as a bridge between Russia and the EU. Our role is, naturally***to help smooth the differences in order to find a foundation for rapprochement between the EU and Russia, Tsipras said in response to a question about how Greece intends to vote on the issue of extending the EU’s anti-Russian sanctions. ... Putin assured everyone that sanctions were not discussed during the talks, and that Moscow is not expecting miracles from Greece.

Тенденции развития агропромышленного комплекса россии в контексте импортозамещения

Agroindustrial complex is an important object for the state investments, the development of which ensures the level of food security in the country. In this context, the article describes the main trends of the development of agroindustrial complex of Russia in conditions of anti Russian sanctions by the USA and EU countries, the influence of state support on the performance of enterprises of the agricultural sector is shown, the main directions of state financing are reflected, as well as the volume of resource support of the state program.

IMPORT SUBSTITUTION POLICY UNDER ANTI-RUSSIAN SANCTIONS: STATE AND PROSPECTS

In the context of Western sanctions caused by the events in Ukraine, a sharp drop in oil prices and other commodity prices, Russia is in a difficult political and economic situation. In these conditions, pressing was the question of replacement technologies and products imported from abroad, especially from the European Union, acceding to the anti-Russian sanctions, initiated by the United States. The political leadership of the Russian Federation have repeatedly raised the issue of import substitution, and only the events of recent years have allowed to translate public policy in this area to the actual implementation of programs developed its own production of goods and technology that were previously imported from abroad. Objective: To analyze the current political developments in the modern world and show the pros and cons of the policy of import substitution in Russia in terms of anti-Russian sanctions. Method and methodology of work: Institutional and neo-institutional paradigm, systematic approach. Results: The authors note that the import substitution program in import substitution, in spite of the marked complexity, have a good chance of success, and this is the key to low-cost raw materials, relatively cheap labor, cheap energy sources – natural gas and electricity, as well as carried out in 2014–2015 devaluation of the ruble, which significantly reduce the cost of the potential costs of enterprises. Application of the results: political science and practice, economic policy.

О НЕОБХОДИМОСТИ БАЛАНСА ОТКРЫТОСТИ РОССИЙСКОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ И ПРОТЕКЦИОНИЗМА В УСЛОВИЯХ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО КРИЗИСА И АНТИРОССИЙСКИХ САНКЦИЙ: ГЕНЕЗИС ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ МЫСЛИ В КОНТЕКСТЕ ИСТОРИЧЕСКОГО ОПЫТА

The paper analyzes the evolution of economic doctrines of the essence of the economy openness and the necessity of protectionist security of its certain industries and sectors. The author proves the necessity of determination of balance between the tools of economy openness and protectionism in the state foreign economic policy. Based on the historical overview and understanding of foreign trade theories, the author proved that the choice between the policy of open economy or protectionism while managing foreign economic relations in their uncompromising variants was typical for previous centuries. Nowadays, these two approaches are interrelated and mutually essential. The issue of the interrelation common mechanisms should be considered principally in the context of historical moment and place of a country in the international differentiation of labour. In this regard, it was proved that the strengthening of protectionist measures by Russia is reasonable in the period of economy crisis and anti-Russian sanctions. At the same time, the paper shows that the protectionist security, whichever reasonable and effective it happened to be, cannot cancel the necessity of implementation of macroeconomic policy tasks directed at the restructuring in the near future of export-oriented and import substitution enterprises. The author proves that the artificial safeguard from foreign competition reduces motivation for the improvement of domestic production efficiency, encroaches on consumer interests, and leads to the strengthening of inflation development in the domestic market. As the result, the author developed and proved scientifically the proposals on correcting foreign policy of Russia from the perspective of balance between the economy openness and protectionism. The paper draws the conclusions on the predominance of the concept considering the national economy as an open economy focused on the foreign market.

ГЛОБАЛЬНЫЙ ПРОГНОЗ НАЦИОНАЛЬНОГО СОВЕТА ПО РАЗВЕДКЕ США

The paper gives an analysis of the background, main trends, scenarios and factors of the long-term development of the world till 2030 which are exposed in forecasts of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in its report of 2012. A comparison of these forecasts with reality for recent years is given. The lack of a series of important events and tendencies in the world development is found in this report. Sometimes authors consider that fact as a forecast error in other cases as an attempt to place the USA and the consequences of their activity in a good light. Methodology of long-term forecasting of NIC is close to foresight. First of all the authors are interested in estimation of new role of the USA in changing World. They have constructed two global indexes of state power: one to estimate relative diplomatic power, the other to estimate relative material power. Forecasts were obtained with imitation computer model “International Futures” which included 6 relative dynamic sub-models with more than 2000 indicators on 70 states and regions of the world. It allowed consider different scenarios of development. Special part of the report was devoted to revolutionary technologies and economic growth. Many conclusions on demographic, urbanization trends, economic growth, shortage of water etc. are realistic. Weights of Russia, China, Japan in world economy are diminishing. China will leave behind the USA economically until 2030. Crisis of Eurozone and its disintegration are discussed in the report. Really, the consequences of “Color revolutions” and “Arabian spring” in which the USA undoubtedly took part are not estimated properly. The role of the USA in many cases as a factor of peace and development is overestimated. Thesis about “damping of Islamic terrorism” is not true. Problem of Ukraine isn’t even mentioned. Crisis of Eurozone with millions refugees is underestimated. Non-controllable Islamic migration into Europe was not predicted. Disintegration of 15 countries is pointed out as possible. However, this list doesn’t contain the Great Britain, Canada and other countries. As it is known, 29 American states want to leave the USA peacefully. Anti-Russian sanctions and Russian counter-sanctions, new groups BRICS, TIKKS are not taken into account. Consequences of shale revolution were mistaken. New integration and disintegration processes are going. Divergence of forecasts and reality is inevitable. In some cases it is due to quick changes of the world and in others due to subjective point of view of the forecaster.

Антикризисное управление в социально-экономической сфере с учетом антироссийских санкций

Антикризисное управление в социально-экономической сфере с учетом антироссийских санкций

The Fisher effect as an indicator of the optimal interaction of banks and the real sector of the economy

The problem of compromise of interests of banks and the real sector became particularly acute with the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions. Access to long cheap money in the West is closed, as well as to productive assets and technology. These aspects resulted in a contradictory situation: on the one hand you must support the Russian manufacturer of the borrowed Bank resources loyal conditions, on the other hand, banks are unable these terms to provide themselves and need the support of the cheap long-term money. The article considers and analyzes the main Bank strategy as a tool for the implementation of the interaction of banks and manufacturers. Credit-investment strategy specify the types, conditions, amounts and structure of active operations and ways of their implementation (implementation) and behavior of the Bank in appropriate segments of the financial market. Deposit-accumulation strategy defines the types, conditions, amounts and structure of passive operations, and also the behavior of the Bank on certain market segments, taking into account the influence of external and internal factors (including crises and their possible consequences). Interest-pricing strategy determines a reasonable amount of interest on loans and deposits, as well as tariffs (price terms) of provision of Bank services, including list of operations conducted by them free of charge. Is part of the strategies discussed earlier. An inaccurate account of inflation risks in interest rates gives rise to impairment of deposits and loans. These processes are known as the Fisher effect, which is proposed to be used as indicator of equilibrium between the banking and real sectors of the economy. The conclusions about the necessity of improving the methods for calculating interest rates and some recommendations, the necessity of state support for optimizing profitable credit and investment cooperation between banks and Industrialists.

Влияние антироссийских санкций на специфику государственного управления в современной россии

Влияние антироссийских санкций на специфику государственного управления в современной россии

EFFECTS OF SECTORAL ANTI-RUSSIAN SANCTIONS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF GEOLOGICAL EXPLORATION DRILLING IN THE ARCTIC SEAS

This paper analyzes the past and current situation of geological exploration drilling on the Arctic region continental shelf. Along with climate conditions, the strategy of drilling is greatly infl uenced by technical accessibility of licensed sites, the latter depending on achieved level of equipment and technologies. Since 2014 the USA, the European Union countries and a number of other states have imposed sanctions against Russia. Sectoral sanctions, prohibiting access to technologies employed in the Arctic region shelf projects, have become an important part of these sanctions. This research is aimed at assessing the infl uence of sectoral anti-Russian sanctions on geological exploration drilling in the Arctic seas. The choice of geological exploration drilling is not accidental as the majority of Russian Arctic projects are at this particular stage now. Over the recent forty years, the country has accumulated considerable practical experience of conducting geological exploration drilling and the Arctic region field development. Our analysis demonstrates that modern Russia has necessary technologies for exploration and field development in the Arctic region. In fact, Russia is the only country, which actually continues its operations in the Arctic region amid a sharp decline of oil prices. Imposing sectoral sanctions related to equipment and technologies of developing the Russian Arctic shelf is inefficient. It is forecasted that in the coming decade, the continuing global warming process will make the majority of regions of the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea – where a number of large and gigantic fields have already been discovered – more accessible for conducting geological exploration drilling. It is possible to use here the traditional types of off shore drilling units with a low ice rate. This will totally eliminate any technical and technological problems of drilling. The USA are expected to enter the market of arctic hydrocarbons from new fields by the middle of the 30s of the 21 century. One can forecast a substantial output from exploiting Russian fields to be achieved by the same time. Hence, imposed sanctions are mainly aimed at delaying the implementation of Russian Arctic region projects and synchronizing them with American projects in order to create extra competition for Russian oil industry and for selling its products on the global market. Low global price for hydrocarbons and financial sanctions can exert more infl uence on the development of Russian Arctic fields than restricted access to equipment and technologies.

Siberia and the Far East in the Asia-Pacific Integration Processes with Regard to Economic Sanctions Against Russia

The article discusses the role of Siberia and Far East regions in the integration process in the Asia-Pacific region, whose importance for Russia has increased after introduction of anti-Russian economic sanctions. The article describes the shortcomings of Russia’s eastern regions impeding integration with Asia-Pacific, provides recommendations how to remove them. The factors that will determine the direction of the APR in the next 20 years are listed. The analysis of areas where cooperation could bring the development of eastern regions of Russia and the Asia-Pacific region is given.

АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОЙ ПОДДЕРЖКИ ПРЕДПРИНИМАТЕЛЬСКОЙ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ В АПК

The article summarizes the possible effects of anti-Russian and response sanctions in the agricultural sector of the Russian economy. The legislative modernization of national agricultural policy is analyzed, the method of determining the required volume of state financial support to agricultural enterprises is proposed and tested to overcome the disparity in prices and to stimulate business activity.

Антироссийские санкции: угрозы и возможности

Антироссийские санкции: угрозы и возможности

Euroscepticism in Italy: Evolution of Northern League Political Program

Abstract: The article examines the key stages of the establishment of Italy’s Northern League as a rightwing hard eurosceptic party. Being initially a continual supporter of European integration and considering the transition to common currency as an opportunity available only to northern regions, which could secede and form an independent state, Northern League after losing the main point of its political agenda when the whole Italy joined the Economic and Monetary Union in 1998, became a eurosceptically-oriented party, which it is up to now. The authors dwell on the focal points of the party’s anti-EU program: Italy’s exit from the eurozone, the formation of Europe of macroregions, the reformation of supranational institutes and decision-making procedures. However, while confronting the Northern League policy with that of National Front in France and UKIP in the United Kingdom, the authors come to the conclusion that Euroscepticism for the former is just a sign of the shift in priorities rather than a strategy as for the latter. This can be explained by the fact that National Front and UKIP are still to fight for the place in the national mainstream, while Northern League has become its integral part long before. Nevertheless, under the new leadership of M.Salvini Northern League managed to become the fourth party on the national level according to the results of European parliament elections in 2014 and established itself as a significant power opponent to EU policy on a number of important issues, such as anti-Russian sanctions. Moreover, frequent visits of party members to Moscow and the party’s outspoken support of Russia on Crimea’s entrance into the Russian Federation provide an opportunity to consider Northern League a potential conductor of Russian interests in the European Union.