Anti-government Protests Research Articles

‘We want bread and work’: patterns of labour protest and union involvement in Bulgaria

ABSTRACT The end of communism in Central and Eastern Europe resulted in wide-ranging social change, with established practices and relations being overturned in a relatively short period. Labour relations were an area that saw considerable upheaval as unions were released from state control and clandestine worker bodies were able to emerge. This article considers the medium-term effects of these changes by examining the characteristics of labour focused contention in Bulgaria from 2000 to 2019. This was a period during which the uncertainty that characterised the post-transition decade was settling, with new challenges and opportunities in the form of accession to the European Union, the global financial crisis, and the anti-government protests of 2013–2014 shaping the context for labour relations. This article draws on a unique dataset of labour protests to examine the claims, actors, and actions adopted to identify how the labour movement responded to these changes and the degree of trade union involvement in contentious events. The findings suggest there has been a shift from economic claims to encompass broader rights-based issues. They also suggest that unions have been visible in contentious actions but have been joined by a more diverse group of actors in advancing workers’ claims.

Divided loyalty: Are broadly recruited militaries less likely to repress nonviolent antigovernment protests?

Divided loyalty: Are broadly recruited militaries less likely to repress nonviolent antigovernment protests?

Regime elites and civil society: Assessing the channels of pro-government mobilization in autocracies

ABSTRACT This article takes a systematic approach to unpack how pro-government mass action emerges in autocracies. Both the channels and triggers of pro-regime mass action are considered using a large-n dataset of mass mobilization in autocracies between 2003 and 2017. We test quantitively how mass mobilization can occur in autocracies – through party elites and regime-affiliated organizations – and find stronger evidence for the role of elites in enabling pro-government mass action through their use of clientelistic linkages with constituents. However, contrary to expectation, in the aftermath of a particular trigger (i.e., anti-government protests) the likelihood of pro-government mobilization is highest when regime-affiliated organizations are weak or nonexistent. The magnitude of this effect is higher for violent anti-government opposition, as compared to nonviolent dissent, suggesting that violent anti-government opposition tactics tend to generate pro-government mobilization as a form of backlash against the violence and are more polarizing in autocratic civil societies.

Analyzing the Institutional and Socio-Political Impacts of Sheikh Hasina’s Departure on Bangladesh’s Democracy

Sheikh Hasina’s departure from the position of Prime Minister of Bangladesh on August 5, 2024, following prolonged anti-government protests, marks a significant turning point in the nation’s political landscape. Hasina, whose tenure was characterized by notable economic advancements and controversial governance, faced a dramatic fall from power as a result of mounting public dissent and international criticism. Her administration's authoritarian practices and failure to address key public grievances, including the brutal suppression of student protests, eroded her support and ultimately led to her fleeing the country. The immediate effects of her departure include heightened political instability, potential disruptions in policy continuity, and public unrest. In the long term, the success of Bangladesh’s transition will hinge on the new leadership’s ability to manage economic challenges, uphold democratic norms, and maintain institutional integrity. The situation underscores the broader global struggle between authoritarianism and democratic aspirations, highlighting the crucial role of effective governance and inclusive political engagement in shaping Bangladesh’s future trajectory.

INTRODUCTION OF THE MILITARY-DISTRICT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM ON BELARUSIAN LANDS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 1850s – EARLY 1860s

This article examines a wide range of issues related to the specifics of the preparation and implementation of military reform in the Belarusian lands. The work identifies the main directions of activity of military department officials to develop options for improving the military command and control system. During the research, an in-depth analysis of the reasons that led to changes in government policy in the field of military control in the region was carried out. In chronological order, through the prism of normative legal acts, the processes of formation and legislative registration of district management institutions in the region are shown. Factors that had a negative impact on the formation of the district management structure were identified. The organizational measures of the War Ministry aimed at improving the structure of the Vilna Military District are shown. It is noted that the implementation of measures to create a military district system on Belarusian lands in the early 1860s. was carried out in a difficult international and socio-political situation associated with the consequences of the Crimean War and anti-government protests. Extraordinary circum-stances determined the repressive and punitive nature of its structure and powers. At the same time, along with general features, in the process of forming the Vilna Military District, local features emerged that reflected the level of military threats in the region. The results and conclusions of the study can be used in the preparation of textbooks, lectures and special courses on national and military history for students and cadets of higher educational institutions of the Republic of Belarus.

Sudden weather disasters as triggers for ethnic protest in autocracies?

Under what conditions do disastrous storms and floods provoke anti-government protests in autocracies? While grievances, as they often occur after disastrous weather events, are necessary preconditions for protests, they are by no means sufficient. This is particularly true in undemocratic states, where protesters typically fear repressive sanctions. Therefore, this essay hypothesizes that disastrous storms and floods primarily result in anti-government mobilization in autocracies when they occur in the homelands of marginalized ethnic groups. In such scenarios, the immediate hardships caused by the disaster come on top of underlying more structural grievances. Moreover, groups with shared ethnic identities are more likely to mobilize for collective action. This argument is tested using quantitative cross-national protest-event data from the Mass Mobilization in Autocracies Database (MMAD). The results of numerous regression analyses on a sample pre-processed with Coarsened Exact Matching to address potential concerns of endogeneity yield robust support for the outlined hypothesis.

Against Dictatorship, against Backsliding? Examining the Effect of Serbian Anti-Government Protests on the 2020 Electoral Boycott

The power of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has been steadily growing ever since 2012. The party has successfully taken control of all levels of government in Serbia, and the country has suffered from gradual democratic backsliding as a result. In this article, we focus on two protest waves in Serbia between 2017 and 2019. Crucially, a number of opposition parties involved in the more recent protest wave boycotted the 2020 parliamentary election. This article analyzes the characteristics of the citizen-led response in local communities across Serbia and estimates its electoral impact using a difference-in-differences approach. The case of Serbia not only elucidates modes of citizen response and their impact in post-Communist Europe but also provides comparative insights for the potential for citizen-led resistance to mobilize against backsliding in other countries. The objectives of the article are twofold. First, the article uses an original data set of Serbian protest events between 2017 and 2019 to ascertain how the two protest waves were conducted, and how citizens respond to democratic backsliding. Second, using data on municipal-level turnout and SNS vote share in the 2020 parliamentary election, we examine the average electoral impact of protest and, related to that, we evaluate the success of opposition parties in mobilizing voters for the electoral boycott. The article investigates whether SNS-led democratic backsliding is resilient to sustained citizen-led mobilization or whether this bottom-up resistance challenges the notion that “stabilitocracies” such as Serbia are immune to fundamental political change.

Fandom in Action: Online Mobilisation of Thai Youth in the 2020-2021 Anti-Government Protests

The convergence of social media with political communication and the emergence of celebrity politics have significantly altered the landscape of political participation, particularly among the younger generation. Yet, comprehensive research on online political fandom remains limited despite its critical intersection with politics and digital media. This study addresses this gap, focusing on the in-depth case study of the 2020-2021 Thai anti-government protest. It scrutinises how tech-savvy Thai youth, propelled by political fandom surrounding Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, a Future Forward Party opposition leader, harnessed social media and pre-existing online networks to organise these anti-government protests. Despite lacking a formal hierarchy, their organisational prowess, especially in information dissemination, highlights the intricate interplay of political fandom, social media, and youth mobilisation. By employing a trace interview method and conducting semi-structured interviews, the study explores how political fans transitioned from online engagement to active protest participation. The evidence contributes to a nuanced understanding of how fandom culture shapes their political judgment and behaviour. Participants in this study are political fans who publicly engage with politics on social media and participate in large-scale protests offline. They were recruited through a two-step process: first, the Twitter API identified users with high engagement in political fandom and anti-government hashtags. Then, a snowball sampling method extended the participant pool based on referrals from initial interviewees. A thematic analysis was conducted on the interview transcripts. The initial findings indicate that the influence of charismatic political figures, the empowerment of the fan community, and the belief that online political expression is ineffective draw participants toward offline participation. The resemblance between the political fandom of Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and the more mainstream popular fandoms highlights the importance of considering the role of popular culture influences in shaping people’s political behaviours, particularly in contemporary digital communication technologies. In conclusion, this study aims to uncover the intricate relationship between political fandoms, social media, and offline activism and to emphasise the pervasive influence of popular culture on political behaviours in the digital age.

Political trust and legitimacy crisis in the age of COVID-19: an assessment of the EndSARS protest in Nigeria

The article examined the manifestations of political trust deficits associated with people's response to policy choices of Nigeria's government during the COVID-19 pandemic. Like many other states, the African states and particularly the Nigerian government adopted WHO-recommended containment measures to limit the spread of the virus and the associated catastrophe. These measures included lockdowns, shutdowns, social distancing, and personal hygiene among other preventive procedures. Even though the pandemic was relatively less endemic in Africa, as per official statistics, African states swiftly implemented the WHO containment measures, which impacted negatively on the livelihood of the average household, who depends on daily incomes for survival. The worsening living condition caused by the containment measures expectedly deepened resentment against governments in Africa with already poor records of public service delivery, accountability, transparency, and human rights. Nigeria was one of the African countries that experienced citizens' backlash and violent outrage against government policy choices during the COVID-19. Under the guise fighting police brutality, youths staged mass anti-government protests that transformed into large scale violence, particularly in the southern parts of the country otherwise known as the “EndSARS Protests.” The protests were conceived against police brutality in the enforcement of COVID-19 measures. This article examined the outbreak of EndSARS protests as a transformation of the deepening of political trust deficits in age of COVID-19. It adopted qualitative approach using documentary evidence such as newspaper reports and official documents as instruments of data collection. The Institutional Performance Theory guided the article. The theory assumes that the actual performance of government determines citizens' level of trust and confidence in public institutions. The article found that perennial government inefficiency, limited accountability and transparency as well as poor human rights records of the government and its agencies, particularly the police exacerbated an already existing political trust deficits amongst the people in Nigeria. This was manifested in the outburst of a large-scale violent outrage by the youths as protest to the government containment measures and widespread dysfunctional governmental institutions and particularly police brutality. The article concluded that building trust is particularly important for governments, as this can be achieved through output sense, the provision of public goods, or social support.

Radical Turn: The Case of Front Persaudaraan Islam (Neo-FPI) in Indonesia

In the last decade, a religious conservatism group of Front Pembela Islam (FPI) was notoriously controversial due to series of anti-government protests, harsh approaches as well as opposing state constitution which led to this group disbandment in 2020. After being disbanded, this group quietly formed Front Persaudaraan Islam (Neo-FPI) during COVID-19 and operated secretly through religious activities. The momentum of Neo FPI appeared publicly comes in 2022 when they took to the street for complaining the Minister of Religious Affairs’ comment of call for prayer, widely known as adzan. This study aimed at exploring how Neo-FPI responds and transforms after being dissolved constitutionally by the government and to what extent this rebirth is accepted by the Muslim community. The emergence of Neo-FPI can be interpreted by Sydney Tarrow (1998) as a puzzle of political opportunity. The social movement increased when it gained the support of resources and successfully mobilized the resource. The result of the study shows that the Neo-FPI might try to attempt on humanistic approach and moderation within the religious movement. However, substantially this group will not be different from the old version like an apple that falls not far from the tree.

The translator as a social activist in the digital age

Abstract This article presents a process-oriented, self-reflective study of my work translating a documentary play about anti-government protests in Belarus in 2020. It provides insights into the overlapping roles of translator, social activist and cultural mediator, and reflects on opportunities for collaboration in the digital sphere. Through an analysis of my own notes, interim versions of the translation, editorial revisions, correspondence and conversations with other participants, this article contributes to a deeper understanding of the various roles, stages and relationships found throughout the translation process, as well as the translator’s role in interacting with other stakeholders to express a unanimous protest against violence and oppression made possible by cooperation across borders in the digital sphere.

How Israel's Illiberal Democracy Became a Model for the Right

ABSTRACT: Amid the mass slaughter and starvation of Palestinians in Gaza, it is easy to forget the political drama that gripped Israel only one year ago. After assuming power in December 2022, a new far-right government led by Benjamin Netanyahu had proposed a slate of judicial and administrative reforms that prompted a wave of anti-government protests. Concerned journalists, former U.S. and Israeli government officials, and major American Jewish organizations issued ominous warnings about democratic backsliding. Israel, it seemed, was heading in the direction of illiberal Hungary.

What Made South Korea–Japan Security Cooperation Retreat During the Moon Jae-in Administration?

This article elucidates the reasons behind South Korea’s diminished security cooperation with Japan during the Moon Jae-in administration (2017–2022). The author discovered that President Moon halted ongoing security cooperation activities initiated by his predecessor, even though the North Korean nuclear threat became exponential. In particular, this article argues that not the national-level factors, such as South Koreans’ negative perception of Japan on the basis of their collective memory, but the leader factor was the main reason for the worsening of South Korea–Japan’s security cooperation during the Moon administration, contrary to most people’s expectations. The Moon administration’s progressive political leaders, who had acquired anti-United States/anti-Japan and pro-North Korea/pro-China perspectives during their anti-government protests in the 1970s and 1980s, decided to be confrontational towards Japan to their political benefit. The reality that the security cooperation between South Korea and Japan jumpstarted once the conservative Yoon Suk-yeol administration leaders replaced them supports this finding.

Thinking different as an act of resistance: Reconceptualizing the German protests in the COVID-19 pandemic as an emergent counter-knowledge order

Massive anti-government protests erupted during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. The crisis activated a potential for resistance that has been simmering under the impositions of late-modern knowledge society. Made salient by the pandemic conditions of sudden extreme reliance on scientific (non) knowledge, the corona protestors activated this potential for resistance and constructed their own counter-knowledge order bound by shared resentment of and distrust in the established order and facilitated by digital platforms. Utilising social network analysis and structural topic modeling for digital critical discourse analysis, in this paper I explore how the corona protest counter-knowledge order is constructed with a particular focus on its contexts, roles, and hierarchies. I find that far-right and conspiracy imaginations are used to level out hierarchies and detach epistemic roles from their contexts to reinstate a superior self into interpretative power. The counter-knowledge order’s inherent construction of unwarranted omnipotence points to a more fundamental resistance to the established normative orders of our society that should be addressed more effectively if we want to be prepared for future crises and not lose common ground for making sense of them.

A difficult test for hard propaganda: Evidence from a choice experiment in Venezuela

Propaganda plays a key role in maintaining power in authoritarian regimes. Previous research finds that overt, crude, and heavy-handed messaging, so-called hard propaganda, can be used to effectively convey government strength and deter citizens from joining anti-regime protests in relatively stable autocratic regimes like China. Yet, it is unclear if this is also true in more contested and unstable autocratic contexts. In these settings, citizens are more likely to question such messaging and prior beliefs of government strength vary more widely. We explore the perception of hard propaganda in one such difficult test case for hard propaganda: the crisis-ridden Maduro regime in Venezuela. We measure perceptions of hard propaganda among the public using an online survey that featured a choice experiment in which respondents chose between and rated different propaganda images against more neutral political communication. Our results show that respondents perceived hard propaganda images as stronger compared to neutral political communication. This holds true – contrary to our pre-registered expectations – regardless of whether respondents overall perceived the government as strong or weak. Moreover, respondents reported a lower willingness to join anti-government protests but, at the same time, had a greater motivation to challenge the regime. These results support and extend prior findings on the effectiveness of hard propaganda in deterring anti-regime activities to the case of contested and unstable autocracies. But they also suggest that this kind of messaging erodes regime legitimacy providing the first evidence outside of the Chinese case of the pathology of hard propaganda.

“I Would Prefer Not To”: Establishing the Missing Link between Invalid Voting and Public Protest in Latin America

ABSTRACTWhile invalid voting is often treated as protest behavior in an electoral context, its association with actual political protests has not yet been empirically demonstrated. The relative scarcity of research on the topic is likely due to the hybrid nature of invalid voting as a both formal and informal political gesture. The novel availability of event-based data for public protests in Latin America allows for testing whether their occurrence is connected with changes in spoiled and blank ballots. Using an appropriate dynamic regression model covering variations in the 148 intervals between Latin American legislative elections in the 1979–2021 period, this study finds a strong connection between the emergence of antigovernment protests and surges in invalid voting (and vice versa). This relationship still holds at parity of economic conditions and it is reinforced by a lack of alternation in the party of power. Conversely, the appearance of workers’ strikes appears to work as a substitute for this behavior, which is also chosen by voters when democracy deteriorates, while corruption has no independent impact on invalid voting. Overall this work’s findings promise to send the research agenda on invalid voting in a new direction, previously unexplored because of an absence of fitting data.

The evolution of the internal political situation in Libya after the overthrow of the Gaddafi regime

Researchers from Western countries and some Russian scientists initially enthusiastically classified anti-government protests and uprisings in the 2010s in a number of Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa as «Arab Spring» or «Arab Awakening».However, the consequences of these «springs» and «awakenings» in some countries of the abovementioned region caused less delight and more anxiety. Indeed, if Tunisia after its «Arab Spring» returned to stable development, in Egypt one general (Hosni Mubarak) was replaced by another (Abdul-Fattah al-Sisi), then in Yemen, and especially in Libya, as a consequence of the «Arab awakenings» civil wars occurred, that are still ongoing, and threaten the complete disintegration of the above-mentioned countries.Based on the above, it is quite obvious that the analysis of the causes, the content of the main stages and consequences of the evolution of the internal political situation in Libya after the overthrow of the regime of M. Gaddafi in October 2011 is not only an urgent scientific, but also a political task. The purpose of the article is to analyze the reasons for the destabilization of the internal political situation in Libya since October 2011, the content of its key stages and consequences. When writing the text of the article, the following scientific methods were used: problem-chronological, comparativehistorical, periodization method, historical-genetic, historical-retrospective, etc. The development of the internal political situation in Libya since October 2011 has led the Libyan state to total disintegration. The Libyan statehood, which until October 2011 was not particularly strong and stable, is confidently drifting towards fragmentation and autonomy within not only individual regions, but even individual cities.

Online repression and transnational social movements: Thailand and the #MilkTeaAlliance

ABSTRACT Research on the formation of transnational social movements primarily view these as either exile support of a local movement or mobilization around an international issue. This article presents a different argument for transnational activism drawing on the logic of the repression-dissent nexus when considering the combination of online and offline performances of contemporary social movements. The starting point is that membership in online communities constitutes a social identity for potential protest participants that can be activated and politicized when states’ seek to repress access and content to online interaction. Since online communities are borderless by nature, we suggest that when regimes employ online repression due to local protests then we will see a backlash that will facilitate the formation of a transnational social movement. We illustrate our argument with an empirical discussion about how the anti-government protests in Thailand in 2020 became part of and facilitated a growing transnational social movement of youth discontent with regimes in Southeast and East Asia. The example shows that the impetus for increasing transnational co-operation throughout the process was in response to growing repression by the Thai authorities both of online content and on the street.

Tehnologije prepoznavanja lica i ljudska prava - kratak izveštaj države (Slovenija)

The paper aims to describe the practice of using facial recognition technology and the impact it has on human rights in Slovenia. For this purpose, a case was used when public suspicion arose that the police were using facial recognition technology to identify participants in anti-government protests. The conclusion reached in the paper is that the Slovenian regulation on the use of automatic facial recognition systems seems proportionate, while some questions such as "is this technology necessary in a democratic society" remain open.

Evaluation of the “Street and Abroad” Strategy Implemented by Political Opposition in Poland under the Rule of Law and Justice

After the 2015 parliamentary elections in Poland, the parties that moved to the opposition declared themselves the “total opposition” and adopted the “Street and Abroad” strategy, the aim of which was to organize anti-government protests in the country and to use foreign fora, including above all EU mechanisms, to fight the new right-wing government, criticize its actions and eventually remove it from power. The paper aims to assess the effectiveness of the strategy adopted by the Polish opposition after seven years of right-wing rule. The subject of particular interest is, on the one hand, the evaluation of the “Street” strategy on the example of mass protests concerning courts, abortion, and the media. On the other hand, the “Abroad” strategy was analyzed through the impact of the European Parliament’s resolution on social mobilization, electoral preferences, and the level of support for the ruling party. For this purpose, the leading indicators of support for opposition parties published by opinion polling centers were used in the examples analyzed.