Ballistic Missile Defense Research Articles

Does the US program of Conventional Prompt Global Strike threaten Russian national security?

The article analyses a concept of Conventional Prompt Global Strike aimed at developing weapons systems that can deliver a conventional warhead anywhere in the world within an hour as a prioritized part of the US military strategy. The Pentagon planners believe that deployment of CPGS weapon would allow a selective and far more effective response to post-cold war threats, such as international terrorist networks, “rogue states” and other adversaries, thus drastically reducing reliance on nuclear deterrent in a number of situations. Over the years the Pentagon’s R&D activities in this area encompassed numerous established and emerging weapon technologies, including use of surface-launched and sea-launched strategic missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles. The CPGS program is raising serious concerns in Moscow, where Russian officials consider it as a threat to Russia’s strategic nuclear arsenals and national security interests alongside with the US plans to develop and deploy global ballistic missile defense capabilities and attack weapons in space. Moscow predicts it could undermine strategic balance and trigger a nonnuclear arms race.

Revisiting the Principles of NATO Burden-Sharing

ABSTRACT: The debate over NATO burden-sharing needs to be reappraised continuously on both sides of the Atlantic. This re-look requires methodological rigor as well as an appreciation of the principles on which the Alliance was founded. While European allies have not been pulling their weight, additional funding will not constitute a panacea. The burden-sharing debate is ultimately not about defense accounting, but about military planning and agreeing who should do what for defending the European continent. ********** A widespread consensus has emerged in the United States that European allies fail to pay their fair share when it comes to Although this debate is hardly new, the present intensity of naming-and-shaming allies is striking. Donald Trump, the leading contender for the Republican presidential nomination, had loudly argued that NATO is costing us a fortune that cannot be afforded anymore. (1) In a striking parallel, President Barack Obama has openly complained about free riders and forcefully argued that Europe has been complacent about its own defense. (2) While Democrats and Republicans may agree on little else, the debate on NATO proves bipartisanship still exists. Transatlantic disagreement on how to split NATO's bills is as old as the Alliance itself. (3) The fundamental bargain between US commitment to defending its allies and European contributions to NATO can be measured on the basis of many different parameters. (4) Spending a fixed share of gross domestic product on defense constitutes only a crude indicator of transatlantic commitment. To make matters worse, methodological nuances in measuring contributions often serve to obfuscate differences in political ambitions that nations seek to realize through their NATO membership. Put simply, European nations want to be allied with the United States when their policy preferences converge--as they are likely to do whenever their defense is concerned--but may not want to contribute to those US undertakings about which they have strong reservations, such as further NATO enlargement, ballistic missile defense, or certain expeditionary operations. The transatlantic row over Iraq in 2003 constitutes a clear example thereof. This article argues the discussion on burden-sharing needs to be continuously relearned on both sides of the Atlantic. On the one hand, this relearning requires methodological nuance and rigor. Depending on the metrics used, the picture that emerges looks very different. On the other hand, a careful appreciation of security trends is in order because these will eventually herald an evolution in terms of the military tasks that need to be distributed across the Alliance. NATO functions best when such a wide approach to burden-sharing is maintained. At its inception, the Alliance was organized around a set of principles that bridged these different dimensions. Given that NATO leaders declared 2014 to be a pivotal moment in Euro-Atlantic security, the Warsaw Summit would do well to reconnect proven ideas with future challenges. This article proceeds in three parts. The first section traces the methodological discussion on burden-sharing parameters back to its historical origins, namely the list of defense planning principles codified in the early strategic concepts. These principles--with a remit far beyond financial metrics--highlight the delicate balancing act NATO defense planning typically entails. The second section takes stock of where European allies stand on pulling their weight. In financial terms, defense spending trends may well be turning around. Yet nations may be shifting course for their own reasons, and difficulties about how to share the burden are likely to persist even when European defense budgets are on the rise. The third section argues a collectively agreed plan on how to run NATO as a real alliance is more important than any set of detailed figures. Relearning the original defense planning principles and applying these to present circumstances and future challenges may therefore constitute a useful way forward. …

Obstacle avoidance for multi-missile network via distributed coordination algorithm

A distributed coordination algorithm is proposed to enhance the engagement of the multi-missile network in consideration of obstacle avoidance. To achieve a cooperative interception, the guidance law is developed in a simple form that consists of three individual components for target capture, time coordination and obstacle avoidance. The distributed coordination algorithm enables a group of interceptor missiles to reach the target simultaneously, even if some member in the multi-missile network can only collect the information from nearest neighbors. The simulation results show that the guidance strategy provides a feasible tool to implement obstacle avoidance for the multi-missile network with satisfactory accuracy of target capture. The effects of the gain parameters are also discussed to evaluate the proposed approach.

Implications of Indian Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) on Strategic Stability

India & Pakistan have a long history of military confrontation. Developments in one country are rarely considered benign, and mostly viewed with concern. Nuclear weapon development by India in 1974 not only made Pakistan more determined to achieve similar capability but also accelerated the process of mastering the latest technology. If India's security lies in maintaining qualitative edge in strategic weapons (offensive or defensive) Pakistan's security also lies therein. Improvement in technology is a continuous process and each technology has its life cycle. Improvement in weapon systems would generate a response by the other state, though, it may be delayed at times. In India – Pakistan scenario development / deployment of weapon system by any state would create apprehensions in the minds of others. The introduction of BMD system in the region is destabilizing and its deployment would make the region instable especially during crisis situation.

Ballistic Missile Defense and its Effect on Sino-Japanese Relations: A New Arms Race?

The present article discusses the implications of ballistic missile defense systems for the stability and security of the Northeast Asian region. The paper aims to find out whether the ballistic missile defense systems contribute to the stability and security of the region, or are rather detrimental to it. A constructivist approach is utilized to analyze the problem. Relying on both strategic culture and historical memory, the paper analyzes how the ballistic missile systems of Japan are perceived by China, and whether they contribute to Chinese militarization.

The US ballistic missile defence policy in the Baltic and Nordic regions

The US ballistic missile defence policy in the Baltic and Nordic regions

Performance Analysis and Optimal Allocation of Layered Defense M/M/N Queueing Systems

One important mission of strategic defense is to develop an integrated layered Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS). Motivated by the queueing theory, we presented a work for the representation, modeling, performance simulation, and channels optimal allocation of the layered BMDS M/M/N queueing systems. Firstly, in order to simulate the process of defense and to study the Defense Effectiveness (DE), we modeled and simulated the M/M/N queueing system of layered BMDS. Specifically, we proposed the M/M/N/N and M/M/N/C queueing model for short defense depth and long defense depth, respectively; single target channel and multiple target channels were distinguished in each model. Secondly, we considered the problem of assigning limited target channels to incoming targets, we illustrated how to allocate channels for achieving the best DE, and we also proposed a novel and robust search algorithm for obtaining the minimum channel requirements across a set of neighborhoods. Simultaneously, we presented examples of optimal allocation problems under different constraints. Thirdly, several simulation examples verified the effectiveness of the proposed queueing models. This work may help to understand the rules of queueing process and to provide optimal configuration suggestions for defense decision-making.

Fast Nonsingular Terminal Sliding Mode to Attenuate the Chattering for Missile Interception with Finite Time Convergence

This paper proposed a new fast nonsingular terminal sliding mode to design terminal angle constraint guidance for intercepting maneuvering targets with attenuating the chattering of the command in the guidance law. A fast nonsingular terminal sliding mode (FNTSM) is established for dealing with the relationship between Line of sight (LOS) angle and the rate of LOS angle, the disturbance observer (DOB) is set up to calculate the compensation amount for counteracting the time-varying uncertainty produced by the design of guidance and targets’ maneuver. Combining with FNTSM and DOB, an adaptive law and a compensated parameter are adopted to ease the coupling relationship between the convergence rate of sliding variable and initial parameters design. Furthermore, the chattering amplitude can be reduced, even can be eliminated in some cases. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Distributed time-constrained guidance using nonlinear model predictive control

The paper presents a new time-constrained guidance approach for the multi-missile network by using the nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) technique. The objective is to coordinate the impact time of a group of interceptor missiles against the stationary target. The framework of a distributed MPC scheme is developed. Each missile is assigned its own finite-horizon optimal control problem (FHOCP) and only shares the information with its neighbors. The solutions of the local FHOCP are obtained by using the improved pigeon-inspired optimization method that serves as a convenient tool to deal with the equality and inequality constraints. Further, a safe distance-based penalty term is integrated into the local cost function to achieve no-fly zone avoidance for the multi-missile network. The numerical simulations show that the distributed MPC scheme is effective to implement the cooperative time-constrained guidance with satisfied accuracy of target capture. The Monte Carlo test also demonstrates the robustness of the proposed guidance approach in consideration of the no-fly zone constraint.

Emergent behavior identification within an agent-based model of the Ballistic Missile Defense System using statistical debugging

In this paper, we utilize a software engineering technique called statistical debugging to experimentally identify emergent behaviors in a System of Systems. We apply the technique to an agent-based model of the Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) in which each component of the BMDS has operational and managerial independence as well as geographic distribution. We develop a simple game where the BMDS (blue) is attacked by enemy threats (red) and repeat the game for a large number of replications. Results show that there is no strategy that guarantees a blue win. In addition, there are more losing strategies than winning ones and finally there are four strategies that appear in half the wins and the losses. We refer to those as emergent, since they cannot be controlled by either the red or the blue side.

유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 한국형 미사일 방어체계 최적 배치에 관한 연구

ABSTRACT The low-altitude PAC-2 Patriot missile system is the backbone of ROK air defense for intercepting enemy aircraft. Currently there is no missile interceptor which can defend against the relatively high velocity ballistic missile from North Korea which may carry nuclear, biological or chemical warheads. For ballistic missile defense, Korea’s air defense systems are being evaluated. In attempting to intercept ballistic missiles at high altitude the most effective means is through a multi-layered missile defense system. The missile defense problem has been studied considering a single interception system or any additional capability. In this study, we seek to establish a mathematical model that’s available for multi-layered missile defense and minimize total interception fail probability and proposes a solution based on genetic algorithms. We perform computational tests to evaluate the relative speed and solution of our GA algorithm in comparison with the commercial optimization tool GAMS.Key Words : Set Covering(집합 덮개), Genetic Algorithm(유전자 알고리즘), Air and Missile Defense(대공방어)

잠수함 발사 탄도미사일 탐지를 위한 해상 센서플랫폼의 배치에 관한 연구

본 논문은 잠수함 발사 탄도미사일(SLBM) 탐지를 위한 해상 센서플랫폼의 배치에 관한 연구이다. 최근 북한은 SLBM의 수중 사출시험을 실시하였으며 이는 국제사회에 심각한 안보 위협이 되고 있다. 이러한 위협에 효과적으로 대응하기 위해 기동이 가능한 해상 센서플랫폼은 SLBM의 탐지 가능성이 높은 위치에 배치되어야 한다. 그러나 전형적인 레이더 센서체계의 최대탐지거리 특성은 표적의 비행궤적과 레이더 반사 단면적(RCS)에 따라 달라진다. 이러한 관점에서 본 연구는 SLBM의 전술적 특성에 따른 비행궤적을 분석하고, RCS를 계산하였다. 또한 센서 플랫폼의 위치에 따른 탐지 시간을 분석하여 효과적으로 SLBM을 탐지할 수 있는 해상 센서 플랫폼의 위치를 제시하였다. This paper describes deployment of a sea based sensor platform for the detection of a submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM). Recently, North Korea successfully conducted the underwater launching test of the SLBM, which will seriously threaten the global security. To defend these threats successfully, a sensor platform of the ballistic missile defense (BMD) should be deployed in the area of high detection probability of the missile. The maximum detection range characteristics of the typical radar sensor system, however, depend on the radar cross section (RCS) and flight trajectories of the target. In this point of view, this work analyzed the flight trajectories based on the tactics and calculated the RCS of the SLBM. In addition, sea based sensor platform position is proposed from the analysis of the detection time.

South Korea’s Defense Posture against the North Korean Nuclear Threat: Dangerous Reluctance

This paper examines South Korea’s defense preparedness against a possible North Korean nuclear attack. It applies three options of nuclear defense: preemptive attack against North Korean nuclear weapons and facilities, interception of airborne North Korean nuclear missiles, and civil defense to reduce casualties from a nuclear explosion. North Korea may have succeeded in developing about 10 nuclear weapons and making them small and light enough to be delivered by its ballistic missiles. It is imperative for South Korea to prepare defenses against a nuclear attack in the case its diplomatic efforts and deterrence measures fail. South Korea needs to be able to conduct a preemptive strike when a North Korean nuclear attack is imminent. It should also build up its ballistic missile defense systems in order to intercept any North Korean nuclear missiles that may survive a preemptive strike. Moreover, South Korea should prepare for its civil defense by constructing blast and/or fallout shelters to help more people survive a possible nuclear explosion.

Biased optimal guidance law with specified velocity rendezvous angle constraint

Abstract In order to increase the effectiveness of interceptor missile, velocity rendezvous angle control is required in the terminal phase. The purpose of this paper is to obtain an optimal guidance law which can achieve specified velocity rendezvous angle as well as zero terminal miss distance. A biased optimal guidance law based on a simplified mathematical model is deduced for interceptors engaging against invasion aircraft. Different from previous literatures on this issue, the presented guidance law suitable for intercepting high-speed maneuvering target. Another advantage is, under centimeter level miss distance setting, the guidance law needs smaller guidance command near the terminal time, which can successfully avoid command saturation. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented guidance law.

Modified particle swarm optimization for BMDS interceptor resource planning

One important mission of the strategic defense is to develop an integrated, layered Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS). We consider the problem of assigning interceptors to multiple waves of incoming ballistic missiles. This work addresses the issue of shot time constraints and directly allocates multiple targets to interceptors in the single engagement problem. A mathematical model and method for BMDS Interceptor resource planning (IRP) is presented. In addition to mathematical model, a modified particle swarm optimization RPPSO algorithm has been developed for solving complex IRP problem. This algorithm adapted a basic PSO algorithm to make it compatible with reasonable engineering problems. RPPSO was developed by embedding a reverse predictor within the basic algorithm to avoid premature convergence without significantly reducing convergence speed, and adding a repulsive force to keep the diversity of both local and global optima. Algorithm performance and experimental examples verified the benefits and specific applications of paper work.

Sliding mode-based intercept guidance with uncertainty and disturbance compensation

This paper presents a missile intercept guidance law that can account for uncertainty and disturbance. The proposed guidance law is developed based on a novel second order sliding surface, along with an uncertainty and disturbance estimator. The proposed sliding surface is invariant for the non-impact angle constraint case as well as the impact angle constraint case. The sliding surface guarantees finite time convergence of the line-of-sight (LOS) rate and (if specified) the LOS angle error, characterized by a simple function of time-to-go. Furthermore, the proposed strategy is also effective against a maneuvering target. The line-of-sight rate convergence property can be adjusted using only one parameter that makes the design process simple. Potential of the proposed guidance laws is demonstrated with some simulations.

Assessment of deterrence and missile defense in East Asia: A power transition perspective

This paper explores the stability of deterrence in East Asia and the effects of missile defense on regional security. In particular, we evaluate the policy implications derived from the power transition perspective for the development of the US missile defense system in the Asia-Pacific region. Over the short term, we anticipate that the stability of deterrence in East Asia will be increased by the deployment of ballistic missile defenses that creates a power preponderance of satisfied challengers against potential regional challengers. The long-term horizon is, however, tenuous because the rapid expansion of US-led missile defense systems may significantly alter the trajectory of China’s missile strategy by increasing its dissatisfaction with the status quo. One fundamental implication is that, without further restrictions, long-term deployment stability in East Asia will become increasingly fragile.

Analyzing Ballistic Missile Defense System Effectiveness Based on Functional Dependency Network Analysis

Recent engineering experiences highlight the Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) as a System of Sys- tems (SoS), and traditional probability models were limited in capturing the complex interactions between component sys- tems. A novel approach was proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the whole BMDS from the aspect of functional in- teractions, rather than the functions of components. First, Functional Dependency Network Analysis (FDNA) was intro- duced to build the analysis model through integrating the component systems in multi-layered kill chains of BMDS. The key metrics were proposed to measure the effectiveness from both probability of raid annihilation and system response time. Finally, the application of this method was demonstrated through a case study, and the result shown the holistic characters of BMDS at SoS level. The case shown that FDNA was a promising way to analyze SoS at high level.

Analyzing Ballistic Missile Defense System Effectiveness Based on Functional Dependency Network Analysis

Analyzing Ballistic Missile Defense System Effectiveness Based on Functional Dependency Network Analysis

적응형 칼만 필터를 이용한 확장 표적의 상태벡터 추정 기법

본 논문에서는 빠르게 기동하는 표적의 상태벡터를 효과적으로 추정하는 필터링 기법을 제안한다. 적 미사일을 높은 확률로 요격하기 위해서는 스윗 스팟이라고 불리는 지점을 타격해야 하며, 이를 위해서는 표적의 길이와 위치를 정확히 추정해야 한다. 논문에서는 FMCW 레이다에 기반하여 고분해능 거리 프로파일(HRRPs)을 생성한 후 제안된 필터링 기법을 통해 표적의 길이와 움직임을 추정하고 있다. 실제에 가까운 레이다 측정치를 모사하기 위해 ISAR 이미지를 통해 각도에 따른 표적의 산란점 특성에 대한 연구가 진행되었다. 또한 측정 잡음 공분산 행렬 R 이 고정되어 있는 기존의 칼만 필터의 경우 SNR 값이 급격히 변화하는 상황에서는 표적의 효과적인 추적이 어려우며, 제안된 기법에서는 공분산 행렬 R 을 측정값을 이용해 지속적으로 개선하며 표적을 추적하게 된다. 기법의 성능 확인을 위해 요격 미사일이 목표물을 추적하는 상황에 대하여 시뮬레이션이 수행되었으며, 시뮬레이션 결과는 제안된 필터링 기법이 실제 데이터에 효과적으로 수렴함을 보인다. This paper proposes a filtering method for effective state vector estimation of highly maneuvering target. It is needed to hit the point called 'sweet spot' to increase the kill probability in missile interception. In paper, a filtering method estimates the length of a moving target tracked by a frequency modulated continuous wave (FMCW) radar. High resolution range profiles (HRRPs) is generated from the radar echo signal and then it's integrated into proposed filtering method. To simulate the radar measurement which is close to real, the study on the properties of scattering point of the missile-like target has been conducted with ISAR image for different angle. Also, it is hard to track the target efficiently with existing Kalman filters which has fixed measurement noise covariance matrix R. Therefore the proposed method continuously updates the covariance matrix R with sensor measurements and tracks the target. Numerical simulations on the proposed method shows reliable results under reasonable assumptions on the missile interception scenario.