Anthropogenic Risk Research Articles

Presence-only fisheries bycatch data produce biased species distribution predictions for Alcyonacean corals on British Columbia’s continental shelf and slope

Sedentary benthic species such as Alcyonacea corals form critical habitat for fishes and invertebrates. Assessing anthropogenic risks to these organisms requires unbiased, species distribution models (SDMs) that attempt to map probabilities of coral presence in relation to bio-physical ocean characteristics; however, in deep-water settings, the accuracy of SDMs is highly variable and dependent on spatial and taxonomic resolution. Here we investigated how data and model types affect SDM predictions of Alcyonacea probability of presence. We compared predictions from generalized additive models (GAMs) fitted to presence-absence observations over a stratified-random survey design with predictions from maximum entropy models (Maxent) fitted to presence-only bycatch records from commercial fisheries. We use a simulation analysis to show that both model types (i.e., GAM or Maxent) using presence-only bycatch data produced biased estimates of species distribution. Additionally, the maxent model fit using presence-only bycatch data produced biased estimates of performance metrics (AUC, TSS) that were overly optimistic. This study demonstrates a need for presence-absence data collected using a robust survey sampling design to fit SDMs that will better inform marine protected area placement while minimizing unnecessary economic losses, such as forgone fishing yield, due to sub-optimal placement.

Assessing the health of wetland using the PSR approach with reference to the Renuka Ramsar Site, India.

Wetlands are important ecosystems, and few of them, owing to unique characteristics, have been designated the status of Ramsar sites under the convention of wetlands. Despite the status, few of these wetlands are under threat owing to their social importance. Renuka wetland is one such important Ramsar site in India, which is culturally an embodiment of the Goddess Renuka ji. An international fair is held every year at the lake which attracts thousands of pilgrims and tourists. This event is one of the major contributors to anthropogenic risk; other pressures are siltation, pollution, land use activities, and invasive species. Under such a scenario, it becomes important to assess the health of wetlands to take timely decisions about their management. This study evaluates the health of Renuka wetland, using the Pressure State and Response (PSR) model. Relevant data related to the wetland and its catchment from a wide spectrum of sources, namely, field, laboratory, and remote sensing were combined to assess the health of the wetland. Ten indicators were identified, and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to assign weights to the indicators. The wetland health index of Renuka wetland is 0.35, indicating that the lake is in poor condition exhibiting degraded functioning, high external pressure, low vigor, poor resilience, and stability. The study also revealed that the water quality deteriorates post-fair. Thus, the wetland needs attention in terms of management so that the health of the lake improves and is sustained in the future. The study contributes to Sustainable Development Goal 6.6 which focuses on protecting and restoring water-related ecosystems and aims at healthier ecosystems.

Enhancing climate adaptation design in urban areas: a workflow for climate integrated impact assessment

Abstract Nowadays, urban settlements face the simultaneous occurrence of environmental, natural, and anthropogenic risks. In this scenario, the contribution proposes the definition of an operational workflow for climate-integrated impact assessment, to support climate adaptation design at the urban and building scale. The methodological approach focuses on the evaluation of heatwave and pluvial flooding integrated impacts to identify urban hotspots. A testing case in Naples is proposed. The workflow represents an innovative tool, employing a multi-hazard analysis at the local scale to assess climate impacts considering both vulnerability and exposure components of the built environment. Grounded in an evidence-based approach, the proposed workflow acts as an effective support tool for decision-makers in the preliminary stages of projects, considering the interaction between impact analysis and climate adaptation design at the local scale. The contribution is developed within the research Partenariato Esteso PE3, RETURN project (multi-Risk SciEnce for resilient commUnities undeR a changiNg climate) - Spoke TS1 “Urban and metropolitan settlements” activities.

SAFETY CULTURE OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

In this article, an attempt is made to indicate the role and importance of ecosystem services as advantages that are provided to us by the environment. The authors demonstrate selected concepts of ecosystem services and their classification, but only to introduce the reader to pilot studies of the urban ecosystem. The present article aims to define the factors that influence the culture of utilizing ecosystem services in urbanized areas. In this article, a fragment of an urban ecosystem, specifically the Old Town of Gdańsk (which features anthropogenic elements and whose functioning is dependent on ecological and natural systems), is observed through a researcher’s eye. This area is predominantly focused on using international experiences in interdisciplinary research, a dynamically developing new science discipline called “city ecology.” The key research problem of this study is as follows: how can the safety culture be efficiently developed and integrated with the management of ecosystem services to ensure their persistence and resistance to environmental and anthropogenic risks?

Efficacy of non‐lead ammunition distribution programs to offset fatalities of golden eagles in southeast Wyoming

AbstractGolden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) face many anthropogenic risks including illegal shooting, electrocution, collision with wind turbines and vehicles, and lead poisoning. Minimizing or offsetting eagle deaths resulting from human‐caused sources is often viewed as an important management objective. Despite understanding the leading anthropogenic sources of eagle fatalities, existing scientific research supports few practical solutions to mitigate these causes of death. We implemented a non‐lead ammunition distribution program in southeast Wyoming, USA, and evaluated its effectiveness as a compensatory mitigation action to offset incidental take (i.e., fatalities) of golden eagles at wind energy facilities. In 2020 and 2022, we distributed non‐lead ammunition to 699 hunters with big‐game tags specific to our >400,000‐ha study area. These hunters harvested 296 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), 14 deer (Odocoileus spp.), and 33 elk (Cervus canadensis) in the study area, which accounted for 6.9% and 6.5% of the harvest in these hunt units in 2020 and 2022, respectively. We used road surveys in 2020 to estimate a density of 0.036 (95% CI = 0.018–0.058) golden eagles/km2 during the big game hunting season in our study area. Model output suggests that our non‐lead ammunition distribution program offset the fatality of 3.84 (95% CI = 1.06–23.72) eagles over the course of these 2 hunting seasons. Our work illustrates the potential usefulness of non‐lead ammunition distribution programs as an action to mitigate eagle fatalities caused by wind facilities or other anthropogenic causes of death.

Impacts of management practices on habitat selection during juvenile mountain lion dispersal.

Dispersal is a complex series of movements before an individual establishes a home range. Animals must travel and forage in unfamiliar landscapes that include anthropogenic risks such as road crossings, harvest, and urban landscapes. We compare dispersal behavior of juvenile mountain lions (Puma concolor) from two geographically distinct populations in California and Nevada, USA. These two sites are ecologically similar but have different management practices; hunting is permitted in Nevada, whereas mountain lions are protected in California. We used GPS-collar data and net-squared displacement analysis to identify three dispersal states: exploratory, departure, and transient home range. We then compared each dispersal state of the two mountain lion populations using an integrated step selection analysis (iSSA). The model included explanatory variables hypothesized to influence one or more dispersal states, including distance to forest, shrub, water, hay and crop, developed lands, and four-wheel drive roads, as well as elevation and terrain ruggedness. Results revealed consistent habitat selection between sites across most landscape variables, with one notable exception: anthropogenic covariates, including distance to developed land, distance to hay and crop, and distance to four-wheeled drive roads, were only statistically significant on modeled habitat selection during dispersal in the population subject to hunting (i.e., Nevada). Results suggest that hunting (pursuit with hounds resulting in harvest) and non-lethal pursuit (pursuit with hounds but no harvest allowed) increase avoidance of anthropogenic landscapes during dispersal for juvenile mountain lions. By comparing populations, we provided valuable insights into the role of management in shaping dispersal behavior.

Heavy Metal Uptake and Hyperaccumulation in Some Wild Plant Species Köyceğiz Special Environmental Protection Area Located Around Old Chrome Mineral Deposits

In this study, the possible presence of heavy metals in the soil and wild plant species around the old Cr deposits of Köyceğiz-Dalyan Special Environmental Protection Area (Sandras Mountain) was investigated. Possible anthropogenic risk factors to which wild plant biodiversity is exposed are also the subject of this research. Fe, Cd, Co, Cr, Ni and Pb contents of soil, shoot and root samples of five wild plant species growing naturally in the region in question were investigated. These five species are: Alyssum masmenaeum (AM), Cytisopsis pseudocytisus (CP), Centaurea ensiformis (CE), Fumana aciphylla (FA), Phlomis angustissima (PA). The data obtained showed that heavy metals other than Ni, Cr and Co were found within normal limits in the soil samples. Particularly, soil Ni content is extremely high. Heavy metals except Ni, Cr and Fe were found within normal limits in shoot and root samples. One species (AM) for Ni and three species (FA, PA and CE) for Fe showed distinct hyperaccumulator properties. Ni hyperaccumulation detected in the Alyssum masmenaeum species is a particularly striking but well-known phenomenon. Since the research area has special environmental protection status, the soil structure and endemism of the region must be absolutely protected.

The institutional intervention of disaster risk management as a territorial development strategy in the Chillanes canton

Canton Chillanes is a territory vulnerable to natural and anthropogenic risks. For this reason, institutional intervention is critical to meet the population's needs. However, the reality is different since the territory under study does not have the assistance of the local Risk Management Unit (UGR) despite its vulnerability. In this context, the study's objective is to know the institutional reality regarding the process under study and the population's perception of disaster risks. For this purpose, descriptive, documentary, and field research were conducted to determine a representative sample of the population under study and analyze information provided by those involved in Risk Management of the Decentralized Autonomous Government (GAD) of Chillanes. The results show that almost 100% of those surveyed indicate no adequate risk management and that at least 80% are unaware of the territory's vulnerability to adverse events. Despite this background, the municipal entity's RGU has not been strengthened, becoming one of the leading institutional weaknesses. Keywords: Hazards; institutional strengthening; risk management; governance; processes; risk reduction.

The institutional intervention of disaster risk management as a territorial development strategy in the Chillanes canton

Canton Chillanes is a territory vulnerable to natural and anthropogenic risks. For this reason, institutional intervention is critical to meet the population's needs. However, the reality is different since the territory under study does not have the assistance of the local Risk Management Unit (UGR) despite its vulnerabil-ity. In this context, the study's objective is to know the institutional reality regarding the process under study and the population's perception of disaster risks. For this purpose, descriptive, documentary, and field research were conducted to determine a representative sample of the population under study and ana-lyze information provided by those involved in Risk Management of the Decentralized Autonomous Gov-ernment (GAD) of Chillanes. The results show that almost 100% of those surveyed indicate no adequate risk management and that at least 80% are unaware of the territory's vulnerability to adverse events. De-spite this background, the municipal entity's RGU has not been strengthened, becoming one of the leading institutional weaknesses. Keywords: Hazards; institutional strengthening; risk management; governance; processes; risk reduction.

Estimation of the level of anthropogenic impact based on the determination of radionuclides and heavy metals in sediments taken from Rybnik reservoir, Poland

The aim of the study was to estimate the degree of anthropogenic risk by evaluating the level of the contamination of sediments collected from the Rybnik reservoir. The results of the determination of radionuclides (137Cs, 40K, 228Th, 228Ra, 226Ra, 210Pb, 238U) and heavy metals (Zn, Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr, Ni) were presented. The Rybnik reservoir is located in a highly urbanised area, the Lower Silesian Voivodeship in Poland. Radionuclides (137Cs, 40K, 228Th, 228Ra, 226Ra, 210Pb, 238U) were measured using gamma spectrometry. The heavy metal (Zn, Cd, Pb, Cu, Ni and Cr) content was determined using an inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrophotometer (ICP-OES). The classification of sediment pollution was made on the basis of geochemical and ecotoxicological indices. Radioactivity was varied with the highest for 40K (more than 200 Bq·kg−1). The concentrations for the remaining radionuclides were mostly below 20 Bq·kg−1. At the inlet zone (no. 9) an increase in radioactivity of each radioisotope was observed. The values of heavy metals from the lowest to the highest total amount in the sediments were as follows: Cd < Cr < Pb < Ni < Cu < Zn. The sediments of the reservoir are largely contaminated with Cu, but the sediments generally are contaminated to an average degree. Most pollutants accumulate in the inlet zone and near the dam wall. The content of artificial radionuclides, as well as the geochemical and ecological indicators used, can serve as an indicator of the level of anthropopressure in the vicinity of the Rybnik reservoir.

Between Anthropogenic Influence and Resource Management: Impacts of Risks and Preservation Strategies in the Ikopa Watershed, Madagascar

The impacts of anthropogenic risks on water resource management underscore the necessity for a careful and adaptable approach to ensure long-term sustainability. In the Ikopa Watershed in Madagascar, numerous human activities present significant challenges. Water quality is impacted by pollution resulting from agricultural practices. Uncontrolled deforestation intensifies watershed degradation, jeopardizing the availability of water resources. Rapid urbanization and escalating human activities further contribute to the deterioration of water quality. The hypothesis posits that responsible exploitation of natural resources contributes to the preservation and sustainability of water resources in the Ikopa Watershed. This study concentrates on investigating potential anthropogenic risks that influence resource degradation and the perception of mitigation measures. The main objective of this section is to assess the anthropogenic risk factors contributing to water resource degradation in the watershed. The study employs change detection studies through remote sensing and GIS approaches, complemented by social analysis. This methodology aims to identify potential anthropogenic risks affecting responsible water resource management, along with an exploration of local mitigation strategies. The results underscored potential risks faced by the local population in the watershed, including challenges associated with agriculture, urbanization, inadequate drainage network management, and high population density. Binary logistic regression analysis reveals significant connections between anthropogenic risks and the mitigation strategies adopted by local communities in the Ikopa Watershed. The findings indicate that specific characteristics of degradation or local interventions can either positively or negatively influence the adoption of these strategies.

Метод оптимизации антропогенных рисков опасности электроустановок

Currently, the creation of processes for the functioning of human-machine systems of the “Ch-E-S” type in terms of efficiency and reliability is the most popular area in the field of automation, control and decision-making. Intelligent decision support systems help decision makers analyze significant amounts of initial information, taking into account expert assessments of specialists, formulate many possible solution options and find the best one. This article discusses the problem associated with the development of an algorithm for creating many alternative options in the process of functioning of a human-machine system, allowing for its optimization. Keywords: OPTIMIZATION, ANTHROPOGENIC RISKS, HUMAN-MACHINE SYSTEM, EXPERT ASSESSMENT, DECISION MAKING MODEL, “BOW TIE” METHOD

Earth Observation Capacity of the National Geoinformation Center of Bulgaria as Part of the Tools for Geo- and Anthropogenic-Hazard Management in EPOS

Exploring the nature of the Earth system and its multi-scale architecture requires an integrated symbiotic approach not only to understand our planet but also to reveal the hazards and footprints of their events on human life. Following the conceptual model of the European Plate Observing System (EPOS) we integrate a variety of research to obtain a multilateral use of geoinformation for scientific and practical purposes. In 2018, we started building a Bulgarian distributed scientific infrastructure called the National Geoinformation Center, aiming to provide data, products, and expertise to predict and prevent natural and anthropogenic risks and disasters, as well as environmental changes. The present paper demonstrates the capabilities of seismological, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), geomagnetic and multi-scale laboratories (MSL) in Bulgaria that participate to the respective thematic core services of EPOS. More than 40 seismological stations register and transmit data in real time through the operational center of the Bulgarian Seismological Network. Data from 18 GNSS stations, part of the National GNSS network, are officially registered in the EPOS GNSS Data Gateway. Data and products are available via the EPOS GNSS Product Portal for interested users. Panagjurishte geomagnetic observatory (PAG) provides real time variations and long-period data series for the Earth’s magnetic field. The Palaeomagnetic Laboratory at the National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography (NIGGG) participates in MSL with its unique facilities for paleo-, archeo- and environmental magnetism studies. Four case studies are presented to illustrate best practices for utilizing the data collected. The analysis of seismicity in a region of a long-time exploited salt deposit is upgraded with GNSS data to reveal the reason for crustal movements in the region. The results show that the majority of the seismic events took place in the upper part of the Earth’s crust at a depth of up to 5 km, where the salt body is buried. The observed significant local deformations of the Earth’s surface are very likely related to the technological process of deposit exploitation. A recent model of the geomagnetic declination over the Bulgarian territory is also presented. It tracks the variation of the regional magnetic field from 2015 to 2020 and adds short-wavelength signals from the secular network observations. Last but not least, the application of a mineral magnetic laboratory analysis along the depth of a Holocene soil profile is demonstrated. Results reveal the soil evolution in response to environmental changes adding a new magnetic proxy parameter for more precise identification and characterization of the soil formation processes.

From a dynamic integrated climate economy (DICE) to a resilience integrated model of climate and economy (RIMCE)

The emergence of cascaded risks we face at the Anthropocene raises new problems and demands for action. Climate change can be seen as the most critical world risk: it reflects the effect of human actions that promote several risks, it potentiates disasters and catastrophes caused by natural phenomena, and it can, ultimately, threaten human survival on the planet. Risks in the Anthropocene are a matter of governance and local actions. A reflexive analysis, in the context of the so-called risk societies, and of resilient local communities to cope with the impact of risks of climate change is carried out. A Resilience Integrated Model of Climate and Economy (RIMCE) is proposed. The model is based on the idea of a social economic view, which involves nation-states that focus on local communities, citizen responsibility, rights, and behavior, materialized through networks of social capital and solidarity. This local cooperation to cope with climate crises, is the motivation for a new tax, the resilience social tax. With this reflection, we hope to contribute to the understanding of the economic ties attached to anthropogenic risks, proposing criteria to change behaviors, and advocating public participation in defining local actions to restore the optimal operating conditions of the Earth System.

Environmental, climatic, anthropogenic features of Filoviruses Disease Outbreak: a systematic review

Abstract Background Filoviruses, including Ebola and Marburg viruses, are a threat to global public health due to their transmission and mortality rates. Despite recent advances in forecasting infectious disease limited knowledge of the ecological niche of Filoviruses still hinders research progress. Studying the ecological context of Filoviruses can provide important information for the development of international preparedness and surveillance systems. Methods We conducted a systematic literature review according to the PRISMA 2020 checklist. A search of relevant articles was performed in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases. Eligible articles were any type of publication, published in English between 2013 and 2023, discussing environmental, climatic and anthropogenic risk factors of Filovirus disease outbreaks. Results A total of 5818 records were screened, and 41 articles were included. Of the 41 studies analyzed, 21 reported an analysis of risk factors related to Ebola Viruses, 8 of Marburg Virus, and 12 analyzed multiple species of Filoviruses. Of the 41 studies analyzed, 16 also developed risk prediction models aimed at stratifying geographic areas. We collected a total of 19 risk factors divided in 4 categories: environmental risk factors (e.g., forest coverage, cropland coverage), climate risk factors (e.g., annual temperature range, seasonal temporal frequency) population risk factors (e.g., human population density, urban population increase), cultural and behavioral risk factors (e.g., bushmeat trade, use of traditional burial practice). The analyzed models primarily use climate and environmental data, with population and cultural factors being considered to a lesser extent. Conclusions The identification of potential predictors of Filovirus disease outbreak is crucial for geographic mapping of high-risk areas. A multidisciplinary Planetary Health approach is needed to advance research and to develop targeted surveillance systems to prevent pandemic outbreaks. Key messages • Environmental and climate factors play a crucial role in filovirus spillover events, but population and cultural factors should also be considered in future research and risk prediction models. • To improve prediction of pandemic outbreaks more research on disease emergence and transmission dynamics, better surveillance of disease in humans and animals, and better access to data are required.

Tradeoffs between resources and risks shape the responses of a large carnivore to human disturbance

Wide-ranging carnivores experience tradeoffs between dynamic resource availabilities and heterogeneous risks from humans, with consequences for their ecological function and conservation outcomes. Yet, research investigating these tradeoffs across large carnivore distributions is rare. We assessed how resource availability and anthropogenic risks influence the strength of lion (Panthera leo) responses to disturbance using data from 31 sites across lions’ contemporary range. Lions avoided human disturbance at over two-thirds of sites, though their responses varied depending on site-level characteristics. Lions were more likely to exploit human-dominated landscapes where resources were limited, indicating that resource limitation can outweigh anthropogenic risks and might exacerbate human-carnivore conflict. Lions also avoided human impacts by increasing their nocturnal activity more often at sites with higher production of cattle. The combined effects of expanding human impacts and environmental change threaten to simultaneously downgrade the ecological function of carnivores and intensify human-carnivore conflicts, escalating extinction risks for many species.

The Deforestation and Biodiversity Risks of Power Plant Projects in Southeast Asia: A Big Data Spatial Analytical Framework

Ecosystem destruction and biodiversity loss are now widespread, extremely rapid, and among the top global anthropogenic risks both in terms of likelihood and overall impact. Thorough impact evaluation of these environmental abuses—essential for conservation and future project planning—requires good analysis of local ecological and environmental data in addition to social and economic impacts. We characterized the deforestation and biodiversity impacts of energy investments in Southeast Asia using multiple geospatial data sources related to forest cover and loss data from 2000 to 2018, other landcover data, and the location, type, and characteristics of energy investments. This study paid particular attention to different types of power plants and financing sources. We identified critical buffer zones and forest structures impacted by these projects in accordance with IUCN criteria and spatial ecology. The paper introduces a novel, replicable analytical framework that goes beyond earlier studies in which all forests are treated as equivalent. It characterizes forests based on spatial morphological structures such as core forest, edges, islands, and bridges, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of deforestation and its impacts on biodiversity. Preliminary findings suggest that projects financed by Chinese development banks pose different risks compared to non-Chinese financing. The study also reveals significant differences in biodiversity impacts based on the type of energy source, be it coal or hydro. The study offers critical insights into the trade-offs between energy development and biodiversity conservation. It provides actionable metrics and strategies for policymakers, conservationists, and development banks to prioritize forest and habitat preservation in Southeast Asia and globally.

A novel ecological risk assessment approach applied to Jiangsu coastal zone, China

Natural and anthropogenic risk factors contribute to ecological risks in coastal zones; however, the response of ecological entities (receptors) to disturbances varies with the risk source. We used the risk causal law as a guide to construct an ecological risk assessment method for Jiangsu coastal zone, China, with different ecological receptors as the research subjects. We screened the evaluation indicators for natural and anthropogenic risks, validated the evaluation results, and designed a method to map the integrated coastal ecological risk. The five typical ecological receptors exhibited different risk responses when faced with different disturbances. Among the natural risks, invasive species and seawater pollution had the largest differences in risk values. Of the anthropogenic risks, the largest differences in risk values were for reclamation sea farming and industry. The results of the habitat risk assessment model, which were based on the exposure–consequence framework, and those of the hazard–vulnerability–damage model showed a strong positive correlation. Furthermore, the T-test results were tested with P values of less than 0.05, and were not significantly different at the 95% confidence level; thus, the results were valid. The variability in the evaluation results of different ecological receptors was used to map the integrated ecological risk. High- and very-high-risk areas were distributed along the coastline and the edge of the radiating sand ridge, and moderate-risk areas were distributed within the high-risk mudflat areas. The ecological risk values were quantified for each shore section; very-high-risk areas were mainly distributed in the central and estuaries shore sections, and moderate-risk areas were mainly distributed in the southern shoreline sections. The exposure and consequence values calculated using InVEST-HRA model were used to select ten primary factors represented by coastal erosion and sewage discharge as well as five secondary factors represented by green tides and coastal engineering. Finally, we suggested future ecological protection and risk prevention measures based on the shore sections and primary and secondary factors. This study takes the causal relationship of the risk occurrence process as a guideline, and combines the reflected difference characteristics among the risk elements to provide scientific support for the practice of ecological risk prevention and governance in the coastal zone.

Anthropogenic Risk to Poisonous Species in Mexico

Anthropogenic Risk to Poisonous Species in Mexico

Антропогенные риски электроустановок с учетом концепции стоимости человеческой жизни

The idea of using expert systems in the problems of modeling and assessing anthropogenic risks is presented. The application of the concept of the cost of human life to calculate the integral value of anthropogenic risks and its direction for assessing the damage to an enterprise from the action of hazardous factors is proposed. Keywords: AGRO-INDUSTRIAL INTEGRATION, INTEGRATION INTERACTIONS, MODEL OF INTEGRATION INTERACTIONS, HOLDING MODEL, CLUSTER MODEL