Anthropogenic Risk Research Articles

The ARGO Project: assessing NA-TECH risks on offshore oil platforms

Analysis of natural and anthRopoGenic risks on Offshore platforms (ARGO) is a 3-years project, funded by the Italian Ministry of Economic Development. The project, coordinated by AMRA, a permanent Research Centre for the development of innovative technologies applied to environmental problems, aims at providing technical-support for the analysis of natural and anthropogenic risks on offshore oil-platforms. ARGO has developed methodologies for the probabilistic analysis of industrial accidents triggered by natural events (NA-TECH) on offshore platforms. The final analysis of the ARGO Project suggest a constant monitoring of exploitation activity, fluids re-injection and storage using high technology networks.

New Czech & Certified Methodology „Tools of Resilience“

Abstract The article deals with possibilities of better governance regarding natural and anthropogenic risks and building of resilience of medium towns and cities against disasters. Such systematic approach could be applied for example using new Czech certified methodology “Tools Of Resilience”, which has been developed recently within the short project number no. VF20152016047 under the grant of Czech Ministry of the Interior in period 2015-2016 and afterwards certified in 2017 by Czech Ministry of the Environment. Basic starting points, used methods, steps of new methodology and its annexes, will be breafly described in the topic.

Night-day speed ratio of elephants as indicator of poaching levels

Poaching has escalated in recent years and is becoming the greatest immediate threat to elephants' survival. There is an urgent need to develop innovative and cost-effective methods for monitoring changes in elephant poaching levels remotely to complement the existing traditional field-based ground surveys. Since elephants are known to respond to anthropogenic risks by alterations in their speed of travel, we quantified this alteration as a ratio of night time speed to the day time speed (night-day speed ratio) and examined its relationship with poaching levels. Our hypothesis here is that poaching is a clear daytime risk, and thus an increase in night time movement rates over those seen during the day will support this hypothesis. Using elephant GPS tracking and mortality data collected in the Laikipia-Samburu ecosystem of northern Kenya between 2002 and 2012, we calculated the mean night-day speed ratio for collared elephants that utilised any of 13 contiguous land units, each under different ownership and management status, and related this ratio to the corresponding poaching levels before and during a poaching surge.Our study shows that the mean night-day speed ratio of both male and female elephants did not vary significantly by month, ruling out possible seasonal effect. However, both male and female elephants moved more at night than during the day where and when poaching levels were high. The relationship between poaching levels and night-day speed ratios was stronger for females than for males. We concluded that the variation in the night-day speed ratio of elephants might be used as an effective indicator for changes poaching levels on a near real-time basis. We recommend its adoption as a complimentary anti-poaching tool, where GPS tracking data is already available, because it would increase the geographical range for monitoring of poaching levels. The significant alteration in movement behaviour by elephants in response to poaching also has potential implications for their foraging strategy, reproduction and ultimate survival, all of which are not yet fully understood.

Антропогенні та природні чинники ризику водо-постачання в Азово-Дніпровському регіоні

Антропогенні та природні чинники ризику водо-постачання в Азово-Дніпровському регіоні

LOS ESTUDIOS DE RIESGOS NATURALES Y ANTRÓPICOS A TRAVÉS DE CUATRO DÉCADAS EN LA REVISTA GEOGRÁFICA DE AMÉRICA CENTRAL (1974 – 2015)

El objetivo de este trabajo es identificar la influencia tanto internacional como nacional de las tendencias epistemológicas y técnicas en la gestión del riesgo de desastres (GRD) en Costa Rica, para lograrlo, se analizaron las investigaciones publicadas como artículo en la Revista Geográfica de América Central entre 1974 y 2015, de las cuales fueron identificados 114 documentos con tópicos asociados a los riesgos naturales y antrópicos. Se lograron catalogar ocho clases temáticas:amenazas sísmicas, amenazas volcánicas, amenazas por procesos de ladera, amenazas hidrometeorológicas, cambio climático, degradación ambiental y erosión de los suelos, vulnerabilidad, y epistemología de la gestión del riesgo de desastres en Costa Rica y Latinoamérica. Como resultado de esta investigación fue posible identificar un aumento considerable de trabajos asociados a la GRD a partir de finales de la década de 1980 con una clara diversificación en las temáticas abordadas.

TEORETHICAL EVALUATION OF ANTHROPOGENIC RISKS IN TAZLAU RIVER BASIN

<p>In the Tazlau Basin there was a really strong anthropogenic impact. Many areas have almost totally been deforested, the grazing and agriculture have extensively and irrational been practiced, underground reserves have been exploited, too etc. The expanding of settlements along the rivers and building of modern communication routes along beds favored the phenomena of flooding and destruction of hydraulic works. These all aspects led to frequent occurrence of risk events: erosions, landslides, degradation of the rivers beds, pollution of air, water, vegetation, soil, etc. The paper identifies anthropogenic risk factors from Tazlau Basin, and proposes analyzes of the consequences and the measures to avoid these ensuing consequences.</p>

Morphometric and anthropogenic factors of flood risk in the Lower Kura

The morphometric and anthropogenic risk factors of floods in a typical lowland Lower Kura R. are studied. The isolation of the channel from the floodplain is the major cause of floods in the river. The high channel tortuosity makes the flow turbulent. In addition, the high sediment concentration, the turbid and disperse character of the liquid, the gentle bed slope, and the alluvial character of the soil underlying the bed and embankments contribute to the vertical and horizontal dynamics of the channel.

Activity and Habitat Use of Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus) in the Anthropogenic Landscape of Bossou, Guinea, West Africa

Many primate populations inhabit anthropogenic landscapes. Understanding their long-term ability to persist in such environments and associated real and perceived risks for both primates and people is essential for effective conservation planning. Primates in forest–agricultural mosaics often consume cultivars to supplement their diet, leading to potentially negative encounters with farmers. When crossing roads, primates also face the risk of encounters with people and collision with vehicles. Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus) in Bossou, Guinea, West Africa, face such risks regularly. In this study, we aimed to examine their activity budget across habitat types and the influence of anthropogenic risks associated with cultivated fields, roads, and paths on their foraging behavior in noncultivated habitat. We conducted 6-h morning or afternoon follows daily from April 2012 to March 2013. Chimpanzees preferentially used forest habitat types for traveling and resting and highly disturbed habitat types for socializing. Wild fruit and crop availability influenced seasonal habitat use for foraging. Overall, chimpanzees preferred mature forest for all activities. They showed a significant preference for foraging at >200 m from cultivated fields compared to 0–100 m and 101–200 m, with no effect of habitat type or season, suggesting an influence of associated risk. Nevertheless, the chimpanzees did not actively avoid foraging close to roads and paths. Our study reveals chimpanzee reliance on different habitat types and the influence of human-induced pressures on their activities. Such information is critical for the establishment of effective land use management strategies in anthropogenic landscapes.

The extra mile: Ungulate migration distance alters the use of seasonal range and exposure to anthropogenic risk

AbstractPartial migration occurs across a variety of taxa and has important ecological and evolutionary consequences. Among ungulates, studies of partially migratory populations have allowed researchers to compare and contrast performance metrics of migrants versus residents and examine how environmental factors influence the relative abundance of each. Such studies tend to characterize animals discretely as either migratory or resident, but we suggest that variable migration distances within migratory herds are an important and overlooked form of population structure, with potential consequences for animal fitness. We examined whether the variation in individual migration distances (20–264 km) within a single wintering population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) was associated with several critical behavioral attributes of migration, including timing of migration, time allocation to seasonal ranges, and exposure to anthropogenic mortality risks. Both the timing of migration and the amount of time animals allocated to seasonal ranges varied with migration distance. Animals migrating long distances (150–250 km) initiated spring migration more than three weeks before than those migrating moderate (50–150 km) or short distances (<50 km). Across an entire year, long‐distance migrants spent approximately 100 more days migrating compared to moderate‐ and short‐distance migrants. Relatedly, winter residency of long‐distance migrants was 71 d fewer than for animals migrating shorter distances. Exposure to anthropogenic mortality factors, including highways and fences, was high for long‐distance migrants, whereas vulnerability to harvest was high for short‐ and moderate‐distance migrants. By reducing the amount of time that animals spend on winter range, long‐distance migration may alleviate intraspecific competition for limited forage and effectively increase carrying capacity. Clear differences in winter residency, migration duration, and risk of anthropogenic mortality among short‐, moderate‐, and long‐distance migrants suggest fitness trade‐offs may exist among migratory segments of the population. Future studies of partial migration may benefit from expanding comparisons of residents and migrants, to consider how variable migration distances of migrants may influence the costs and benefits of migration.

Radiowave and gas-emanation control of objects in the fuel and energy sector in the zones of natural and anthropogenic risks

Radiowave and gas-emanation geophysical methods have long been used to study the upper segment of a geological section, i.e., at the depths of the first tens of meters. This work deals with the improvement of these methods and the accuracy of the results of works due to the use of the new techniques and technology of other electrical prospecting methods. A complex of geophysical and geochemical methods based on studying the Earth’s radio fields (the ERF method) and the emanation fields of radon or other gases in the soil (EM) has been developed and widely tested. The proposed methods were tested during the study of the zones of natural and anthropogenic risks (landslides, karsts, etc.) at fuel and energy-sector objects (pipelines, their construction sites, etc.). They can be used to solve other engineering and hydrogeological tasks related to the upper segment of a geological section.

TEORETHICAL EVALUATION OF ANTHROPOGENIC RISKS IN TAZLAU RIVER BASIN

In the Tazlau Basin there was a really strong anthropogenic impact. Many areas have almost totally been deforested, the grazing and agriculture have extensively and irrational been practiced, underground reserves have been exploited, too etc. The expanding of settlements along the rivers and building of modern communication routes along beds favored the phenomena of flooding and destruction of hydraulic works. These all aspects led to frequent occurrence of risk events: erosions, landslides, degradation of the rivers beds, pollution of air, water, vegetation, soil, etc. The paper identifies anthropogenic risk factors from Tazlau Basin, and proposes analyzes of the consequences and the measures to avoid these ensuing consequences.

Natural vs anthropogenic risk reduction: Facing invasion risks involving multi-stable outcomes

Natural resources important to economic systems are managed in the presence of event uncertainty, marking the transition from a more desirable ex ante state to a less desirable ex post state. The risks of this transition are endogenous and depend on state of the natural resource system and human behavior. In designing least cost policies of risk reduction, policy makers should consider the optimal mix of natural and human risk reduction. Decisions about the best risk reduction mix matter most for systems vulnerable to ex post multi-stability, in which the natural resource system has the potential to begin in one of multiple, locally optimal basins of attraction. This is because ex ante decisions can affect the initial conditions for the ex post system, thereby determining the ex post basin of attraction and the optimal ex post state. In this paper, we find that an ex ante system that is convex and uniquely stable without risk may become non-convex and multi-stable in the presence of endogenous risks and ex post multi-stability. This result arises because ex post non-convexities, and the uncertainties associated with the invasion and its magnitude, can create ex ante non-convexities that generate multiple optimality candidates.

Oppta Methodology for Intervention in Areas Affected by Risk in Latin America

In the period between 2011 and 2014, Observatorio Panamericano de Paisaje, Territorio y Arquitectura OPPTA simultaneously worked upon risk in five Latin American cities under the topic Emergency Interventions caused by natural and anthropogenic risk phenomena. To do so, the organization developed a concurrent methodology of research, proposals and action which helps analyze and compare processes, methods and ways of approaching infrastructural, architectural, landscape, social and economic issues relating to risk, natural disasters, changing climate and human pressure on the environment. It settled mechanisms and processes that allow to work through a multidisciplinary and transnational network. In the process, this network involves researchers, professionals and institutions from de public and private sector. A preliminary diagnosis, among other candidates, have selected five sites for the implementation of proposals. OPPTA conducted intensive research background and at the same time located strategic partners: universities, public institutions, civil society, and others. The proposed methodology is based on the development of five programs: Active Debates, OPPTA Competition, Priority Action, WikiPan and Publications, which deal respectively with research, specific architecture and landscape proposal, project implementation and finally the creation of an open database and the publication, which included the dissemination of results.

Roads, routes and rams: does sexual segregation contribute to anthropogenic risk in a desert-dwelling ungulate?

Context Little is known about the consequences of sexual segregation (differential use of resources by the sexes outside of the mating season) for the conservation of large mammals. Roadways (i.e. the strip of land over which a road or route passes) are ubiquitous around the world, and are a major cause of wildlife mortality, as well as habitat loss and fragmentation. Many populations of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) occur at low densities and in a metapopulation structure. Roadways could affect movements of males and females differentially, an outcome that has not been considered previously. Aims We investigated the propensity of the sexes to cross a paved two-lane road and a single-lane, maintained dirt route and predicted that adult males, because of their life-history characteristics, would cross those roadways more often than females. Methods We investigated movements of male and female bighorn sheep from 1986 to 1990. We used a fixed-wing aircraft with an H-antenna on each wing strut to locate individuals each week from October 1986 to December 1990. We estimated the degree of overlap among 50% core areas of use by males and females with the utilisation distribution overlap index (UDOI). Key results We relocated male and female bighorn sheep on 948 occasions during sexual aggregation and on 1951 occasions during sexual segregation. More males than females were likely to cross both types of roadways during segregation, and the dirt route during aggregation. Propensity of males and females to cross roadways was strongly influenced by time of year (i.e. whether the period of sexual aggregation or sexual segregation). The lowest overlap in 50% core areas was between females and males during periods of segregation (UDOI = 0.1447). Conclusions More males than females crossed Kelbaker Road and the unnamed dirt route during segregation, as well as the unnamed route during aggregation. Both of those features could affect males more than females, and could result in reductions in the use of habitat or increased mortality of bighorn sheep from vehicle collisions as a result of spatial segregation of the sexes. Implications During environmental review, biologists should consider sexual segregation when assessing potential anthropogenic effects on movements of bighorn sheep. Biologists also should consider sexual segregation and how roadways, even lightly traveled routes, affect movements of male and female ungulates differently before manipulating habitat, translocating animals, or constructing or modifying roadways.

The perceiver’s social role and a risk’s causal structure as determinants of environmental risk evaluation

We present a dual-process risk perception model that integrates cognitive and emotional as well as consequentialist and deontological components by distinguishing between two modes of evaluative processing: (a) a consequentialist evaluation that focuses on potential consequences and (b) a deontological evaluation that focuses on moral values. Each of these two modes is assumed to trigger specific cognitive evaluations, specific emotions, and specific behavioral tendencies concerning a perceived risk. We conducted an experiment (N = 270) that tested whether the relative dominance of the two evaluative modes would depend on the causal structure of the environmental risk being evaluated and on the social role of the evaluator. Three types of causal structure were varied by providing scenario information: (a) anthropogenic risks that endanger only nature, (b) naturally caused risks with potential harmful consequences for humans, and (c) anthropogenic risks that may harm humans. Participants evaluated each scenario from the perspective of one of three social roles: mayor, expecting parent, and environmental activist. For each scenario, participants specified their focus and evaluated the event’s morality and perceived risk, the intensity of specific emotions, and their preferences for prospective behaviors. Results showed that the consequentialist evaluation was generally stronger than the deontological evaluation and was less affected by the experimental manipulations. The deontological evaluation was substantially affected by the risk’s causal structure. It was stronger for anthropogenic than for natural causation; risks caused by humans were associated with greater perceived moral blameworthiness, more intense morality-based emotions (e.g. outrage), and a stronger tendency to perform agent-related behaviors (e.g. aggression) than naturally occurring risks. The effect of the social role was less pronounced than that of the causal structure. Furthermore, the effect of an evaluative focus on behavior was fully mediated by emotions for deontological evaluations and partially mediated for consequentialist evaluations. The implications for environmental risk perception and communication are discussed.

Using spatiotemporal species distribution models to identify temporally evolving hotspots of species co-occurrence.

Identifying spatiotemporal hotspots is important for understanding basic ecological processes, but is particularly important for species at risk. A number of terrestrial and aquatic species are indirectly affected by anthropogenic impacts, simply because they tend to be associated with species that are targeted for removals. Using newly developed statistical models that allow for the inclusion of time-varying spatial effects, we examine how the co-occurrence of a targeted and nontargeted species can be modeled as a function of environmental covariates (temperature, depth) and interannual variability. The nontarget species in our case study (eulachon) is listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, and is encountered by fisheries off the U.S. West Coast that target pink shrimp. Results from our spatiotemporal model indicated that eulachon bycatch risk decreases with depth and has a convex relationship with sea surface temperature. Additionally, we found that over the 2007-2012 period, there was support for an increase in eulachon density from both a fishery data set (+40%) and a fishery-independent data set (+55%). Eulachon bycatch has increased in recent years, but the agreement between these two data sets implies that increases in bycatch are not due to an increase in incidental targeting of eulachon by fishing vessels, but because of an increasing population size of eulachon. Based on our results, the application of spatiotemporal models to species that are of conservation concern appears promising in identifying the spatial distribution of environmental and anthropogenic risks to the population.

Impact of Floods and Their Frequency on Content and Distribution of Risk Elements in Alluvial Soils

The aim of this study was to compare the pollution levels of risk elements in flooded and non- flooded alluvial soils as a function of inundation fre- quency and river distance, depth of soil horizon, and pollution origin. Totally, 43 soil profiles of flooded and non-flooded soils were sampled in two layers (topsoil and subsoil). The total contents of As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mo, Ni, Pb, V, and Zn were measured and grouped according to the assumed geogenic or anthropogenic origin. Flooded soils were classified according to inun- dation stage/river distance. Concerning the depth gradi- ent, it can be concluded that the content of anthropo- genic risk elements decreased with the depth, while geogenic risk elements revealed no trend. The distance from the river had no influence on the distribution of anthropogenic risk elements in soil. On the contrary, geogenic risk elements showed increasing concentra- tions with increasing distance. These results indicate that frequency of floods has no influence on the risk elements distribution in soil. The process of sedimenta- tion seems to be the main factor influencing the level of pollution, it differs between groups of anthropogenic and geogenic risk elements. The result of this country- wide study shows higher levels of soil contamination in flooded areas even without significant point sources of pollution, than in non-flooded areas in standard agricul- tural conditions.

Risk Assessment of Human Activities on Protected Areas: A Case Study

ABSTRACTNo study has been done on the impact of anthropogenic risks on protected areas. This may be due to complexity and diversity of risk assessment indices. In this research, using multicriteria decision-making methods, qualitative and complex indices were converted to simple and quantitative indices by which anthropogenic risks affecting the Helleh Protected Area in Iran were analyzed. To this end, a questionnaire was prepared and delivered to Delphi panelists consisting of environmental expertise. In order to prioritize the identified risks, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and Simple Additive Weighting Technique (SAW) were used as a subset of Multiple Attribute Decision-making methods (MADM). In this study, risk factors were evaluated using three criteria of severity, probability of occurrence, and sensitivity of the recipient environment. In order to reach enough transcendence (consensus on priority of risks), an integrated approach comprising average, Borda, and Copeland methods was used. The obtained results suggested that “dam inundation upstream of the study area” is a top-priority risky factor threatening the wetland. “Stopping water pumps from the wetland” and “use of modern irrigation systems” were recommended as the most effective managerial strategies to control the identified risk.

Pets and pests: vervet monkey intake at a specialist South African rehabilitation centre

AbstractVervet monkeys(Chlorocebus pygerythrus)encounter a plethora of anthropogenic risks as a result of their ability to exploit humanaltered environments. A systematic assessment of these risks has not been carried out to date. Here, we aim to begin addressing this gap in our understanding of human-vervet conflict in South Africa. We present a descriptive analysis of the intake of the Vervet Monkey Foundation (VMF) — a specialist vervet monkey rehabilitation centre and sanctuary in the Limpopo Province. Between October 2003 and March 2012 almost 200 vervet monkeys arrived at the VMF. At least 161 infants arrived with a steady decrease in annual intake over time, most probably due to the increasing number of other centres in the province. Detailed data for all age classes were available from March 2009 to March 2012. Of the 50 monkeys that arrived during this period, more young monkeys (infants and juveniles) than adults arrived and more infants than juveniles. Intake of injured and uninjured monkeys was equal. The majority of injuries were caused by cars and the majority of uninjured arrivals were ex-pets handed over voluntarily. A distinct temporal pattern of arrival, peaking in the austral summer, coincides with the birthing season of vervet monkeys in South Africa. The merits of publishing such records and the welfare implications of the perceptions of and objections to these ‘pest’ primates are discussed.

A New Approach Toward Natural and Anthropogenic Risk Assessment of Gas Power Plants

ABSTRACTThe current study focuses on identification and prioritization of the most important risks affecting a gas power plant located in southern Iran that was selected as a case study. After identifying risky activities, plant operations, and natural disasters, a Delphi questionnaire was prepared to specify crisis and accident-prone centers that could lead to the plant's destruction. After analyzing the questionnaires, the final criteria were determined. Subsequently, multi-criteria decision-making methods including the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) were applied to prioritize the identified criteria. The relative weights of the criteria were calculated using the eigenvector method in the environment of MATLAB and Expert Choice. In some cases, there was no correlation between the obtained results, resulting in a novel integrated technique consisting of three methods: average, Borda, and Copeland were used to reach a consensus for prioritizing the criteria. The risk assessment results indicate that gas and oil pipes, dust storm, and terrorism have the first to third priorities among the other risks. Some strategies are proposed to control and mitigate the identified risks.