Anthropogenic Emissions Of Ozone Precursors Research Articles

Analysis of the spatiotemporal changes in global tropospheric ozone concentrations from 1980 to 2020

Tropospheric ozone affects human health, ecosystems, and climate change. Previous studies on Tropospheric Column Ozone (TCO) have primarily concentrated on specific regions or global geographic divisions. This has led to insufficient exploration of the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of TCO in global and rational subregions. In this study, TCO is calculated using the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis data and corrected using satellite data. Cluster analysis is conducted to explore the temporal characteristics of TCO variations in different regions. The results show that the global TCO is basically distributed latitudinally, with higher TCO in the northern hemisphere, which is related to atmospheric circulation, radiation, stratospheric transport, and the distribution of ozone precursors. Between 1980 and 2020, the global average annual TCO showed an increasing trend at 0.09 DU yr−1 due to rising anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors (NOx at 589547.86 t yr−1 and NMVOC at 1070818.24 t yr−1), increasing tropopause height (−0.10 hPa yr−1), and the enhanced ozone flux at the tropopause (0.22 ppbv m s−2 yr−1). Cluster analysis reveals different trends in TCO changes across regions. The ocean south of 60°S and parts of West Antarctica (Region 2), the region from 30°N to 60°N and the western oceanic region of 30°S (Region 3), and the region from the equator to 60°S and the region north of 60°N (Region 5) exhibit increasing trends (with rates of 0.08 DU yr−1, 0.07 DU yr−1, and 0.11 DU yr−1, respectively), linked to the enhanced ozone flux at the tropopause, the rising tropopause height and increasing ozone p precursors. Conversely, the decreasing TCO trends in the equatorial Pacific (Region 1) and East Antarctica (Region 4) (with rates of −0.01 DU yr−1 and -0.02 DU yr−1) may be related to increased cloudiness and weakened photochemical reactions.

Response of the ozone-related health burden in Europe to changes in local anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors

Exposure to ozone (O3) is associated with many human health problems, resulting in tens of thousands of premature deaths annually in Europe. This study quantifies the impact of changes in anthropogenic emissions of O3 precursors on premature deaths from long-term O3 exposure in Europe and the impact of emissions changes during 2005–2015 using the nested-grid chemical transport model Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Chem and its adjoint. In 2015, it is estimated that a 20% decrease in total anthropogenic emissions in our modeled European domain could prevent 1576 (467–3252) premature deaths from respiratory disease (30 years of age), 70% of which is owing to the decrease in nitrogen oxides (NO x ) emissions. Underlying this aggregate effect is substantial spatial variation. In most of Europe, O3 formation is NO x -limited so that NO x emission reductions help to decrease premature deaths. Yet where O3 formation is NO x -saturated (as in parts of the United Kingdom, Benelux and Germany) emission reductions cause more premature deaths through increased ozone exposure. Despite the overall decreases in anthropogenic emissions, the marginal benefit, expressed as the avoided premature deaths per 1 kg km−2 yr−1 reduction in NO x emissions, is found to generally increase during 2005–2015, with a mean value more than doubling over Europe. This highlights the general trend that O3 formation becomes less sensitive to volatile organic compound emissions and more limited by NO x emissions. An important policy implication of increasing marginal benefits is that more costly regulations of NO x emissions are economically justified even as total anthropogenic emission are declining. NO x contributions from road transport, industry, energy, and residential sectors are most affected by the change in the O3 production regime. Consequently, European regulations of NO x emissions targeted at those sectors will yield the highest health benefits per unit NO x emission of all sources.

Comparing the Effect of Anthropogenically Amplified Halogen Natural Emissions on Tropospheric Ozone Chemistry Between Pre‐Industrial and Present‐Day

AbstractReactive halogens (X + XO, X = I, Br or Cl) catalytically destroy a fraction of tropospheric ozone under present‐day (PD) conditions, however, their distribution and potential impact on tropospheric ozone under pre‐industrial (PI) conditions remain largely unexplored. This study uses the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM‐Chem) to investigate the effect of anthropogenically amplified natural emissions of halogenated species and their subsequent chemistry on tropospheric ozone under PI and PD atmospheric conditions. Model results show that the global tropospheric ozone depletion due to natural halogens is slightly more sensitive in PI than PD, with percentage changes in tropospheric ozone burden (TOB) of −14.1 ± 0.6% for PI and −12.9 ± 0.6% for PD. Individually, the role of iodine and chlorine in ozone depletion is equivalent in both periods (ΔTOBI: ∼−7% and ΔTOBCl: ∼−2.5%), while bromine plays a larger role in PI (ΔTOBBr: −5.5 ± 0.6%) versus PD (ΔTOBBr: −4.3 ± 0.7%). The increase in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions from PI to PD has amplified the natural emission of inorganic halogens and led to a shift in the partitioning of inorganic halogens from reactive to reservoir species. Consequently, halogen‐driven ozone depletion from the surface to the free troposphere is larger in PI than PD. In contrast, in the upper troposphere, the ozone depletion is larger in PD influenced mainly by stratospheric intrusion of reactive halogens from long‐lived species. This study highlights the importance of including a complete chemical coupling of natural halogens and atmospheric pollutants in chemistry‐climate models to adequately assess their effects on tropospheric ozone in a changing climate.

The future ozone trends in changing climate simulated with SOCOLv4

Abstract. This study evaluates the future evolution of atmospheric ozone simulated with the Earth system model (ESM) SOCOLv4. Simulations have been performed based on two potential shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): the middle-of-the-road (SSP2-4.5) and fossil-fueled (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The future changes in ozone, as well as in chemical drivers (NOx and CO) and temperature, were estimated between 2015 and 2099 and for several intermediate subperiods (i.e., 2015–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) via dynamic linear modeling. In both scenarios, the model projects a decline in tropospheric ozone in the future that starts in the 2030s in SSP2-4.5 and after the 2060s in SSP5-8.5 due to a decrease in concentrations of NOx and CO. The results also suggest a very likely ozone increase in the mesosphere and the upper and middle stratosphere, as well as in the lower stratosphere at high latitudes. Under SSP5-8.5, the ozone increase in the stratosphere is higher because of stronger cooling (>1 K per decade) induced by greenhouse gases (GHGs), which slows the catalytic ozone destruction cycles. In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere, ozone concentrations decrease in both experiments and increase over the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres due to the speeding up of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, which is stronger in SSP5-8.5. No evidence was found of a decline in ozone levels in the lower stratosphere at mid-latitudes. In both future scenarios, the total column ozone is expected to be distinctly higher than present in middle to high latitudes and might be lower in the tropics, which causes a decrease in the mid-latitudes and an increase in the tropics in the surface level of ultraviolet radiation. The results of SOCOLv4 suggest that the stratospheric-ozone evolution throughout the 21st century is strongly governed not only by a decline in halogen concentration but also by future GHG forcing. In addition, the tropospheric-ozone column changes, which are mainly due to the changes in anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors, also have a strong impact on the total column. Therefore, even though the anthropogenic halogen-loading problem has been brought under control to date, the sign of future ozone column changes, globally and regionally, is still unclear and largely depends on diverse future human activities. The results of this work are, thus, relevant for developing future strategies for socioeconomic pathways.

Anomalous behaviour of ozone under COVID-19 and explicit diagnosis of O3-NOx-VOCs mechanism

Air pollution is linked to higher rates of human mortality especially those infected with COVID 19. Ozone is a harmful pollutant and is responsible for many health issues. However, some reports suggest that ozone is a strong disinfectant, and can kill the viruses. We hereby, report on the vulnerability of ozone due to COVID-19 lockdown whose levels flutter from surging to saturation in a highly polluted Indian capital, due to significant decline in anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors. Average observed levels stabilized at 30 ppb, 12 ppb, 740 ppb, and 900 ppb for ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) respectively during lockdown period from 27th March to 10th April 2020. The NO2, CO and VOC declined by 50 %, 37 %, 38 % respectively during the lockdown period of 2020 as compared to similar period in 2019. The anomalous response of ozone during the lockdown is explained by resolving the poorly known complex O3-NOx-VOCs mechanism with the help of data from air monitoring stations in Delhi, India. The data obtained from this study advances the fundamental understanding of ozone chemistry that may lead to improved ozone parameterization in chemical transport models and better planning of ozone risk management strategies for any global mega cities.

Long-term changes in northern mid-latitude tropospheric ozone concentrations: Synthesis of two recent analyses

The HTAP (Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution) and TOAR (Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report) programs synthesized historical ozone measurements and compared them with recent measurements to quantify the long-term increase of tropospheric ozone concentrations that occurred at northern mid-latitudes in the 20th century due to the increase and subsequent stabilization of anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions. The two studies disagree regarding the magnitude of the increase; the HTAP study found an approximate doubling of baseline ozone concentrations, while the TOAR study suggested a change of about half that magnitude in the well-mixed planetary boundary layer. Here we explore the reasons for this difference, and reconcile the results. The two efforts agree regarding measurements of historical ozone concentrations, but disagree on the comparison of the historical to the modern data. HTAP analyzed seasonal mean historical and modern data from the same or closely equivalent, baseline sites. TOAR selected pre-1975 measurement data sets based upon four data selection criteria; averages of these selected data sets from all seasons, site locations and site environments were compared with annual means of modern data collected at rural European surface sites. The TOAR comparison approach introduced several biases that led to underestimates of the overall change of baseline ozone. We conclude that northern mid-latitude tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations, which are relevant for radiative forcing, increased by a factor of 2.1 ± 0.2 over the 1950–2000 period.

The Geographic Distribution of Future Ozone-Related Asthma Exacerbation Emergency Department Visits in the Us in a Warming Climate

IntroductionAsthma affects >24 million children and adults in the United States (US). Daily fluctuations in ground level ozone are associated with higher rates of emergency department (ED) visits for asthma exacerbations. For a given level of anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors, ozone levels are expected to increase by mid-century due to climate change, with a greater increase under a higher versus a lower climate change scenario. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and spatial distribution of asthma ED visits potentially averted mid-century under a mitigation (RCP4.5) versus a business as usual (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenario. MethodsWe projected daily 8-hr maximum ozone levels across the contiguous US for 2036-2055 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using a 2040 emissions inventory and regional climate and chemical transport models. We then used BenMAP to estimate mid-century ozone-related asthma ED visits for all ages under each RCP, assuming constant population and no adaptation compared to the present. ResultsOzone levels are projected to be an average of 1.3 ppb lower across the US under RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5, with the largest differences projected for the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Nationally, 2,809 fewer ozone-related ED visits per year mid-century (out of 91,431 total ozone-related ED visits under RCP8.5) are projected under RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5, all other factors held constant. The largest differences (greatest potential benefits under RCP4.5) in asthma-related ED visits are projected for the Northeast and Midwest regions, including Chicago, New York City, Cleveland, Detroit, and Philadelphia. ConclusionsThese results suggest that adhering to the lower greenhouse gas emissions described by RCP4.5 would lead to lower daily ozone levels and substantially fewer ED visits for asthma across the US, with potential health benefits considerably larger for some communities and individuals than others.

Future heat waves and surface ozone

A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions fixed at 2005 levels. With ongoing increases in greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in average temperature in both experiments, heat waves are projected to become more intense over most global land areas (greater maximum temperatures during heat waves). However, surface ozone concentrations on future heat wave days decrease proportionately more than on non-heat wave days in areas where ozone precursors are prescribed to decrease in RCP6.0 (e.g. most of North America and Europe), while surface ozone concentrations in heat waves increase in areas where ozone precursors either increase or have little change (e.g. central Asia, the Mideast, northern Africa). In the stabilized ozone precursor experiment, surface ozone concentrations increase on future heat wave days compared to non-heat wave days in most regions except in areas where there is ozone suppression that contributes to decreases in ozone in future heat waves. This is likely associated with effects of changes in isoprene emissions at high temperatures (e.g. west coast and southeastern North America, eastern Europe).

Comparison of total ozone column observations from space-borne Ozone Monitoring Instrument with ground-based Dobson Ozone Spectrophotometer measurements at an urban location in Indo-Gangetic Basin

ABSTRACTThis article presents a comparison analysis of OMIT (Ozone Monitoring Instrument retrieved overpass total ozone column (TOC)), and DOST (Dobson Ozone Spectrophotometer observed TOC) over Delhi during a period from October 2004 to June 2011. Megacity Delhi, located in Indo-Gangetic Basin, is an important site for comparison of ground-based and satellite retrieved TOCs due to significant anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors, large shift in seasons, and large-scale crop residue burning in the region. DOST and OMIT data show an overall bias of 3.07% and significant correlation with coefficient of determination R2 = 0.73. Large seasonal fluctuations in the biases and correlations have been observed ranging from 2.46% (winter) to 3.82% (spring), and R2 = 0.84 (winter) to R2 = 0.09 (summer), respectively. The large biases are attributed to changes in temperature, cloud cover, pollutants emissions from urban area, and crop-residue burning events. We also find notable variations in correlations between the datasets due to the varying burden of absorbing aerosols from open field crop-residue burning. The R2 has changed from 0.67 (for aerosol optical depth, AOD 1.5–3.5) to 0.77 (for AOD 0–0.99). The dependence of the bias on solar zenith angle, cloud fraction, and satellite distance is also discussed. A simple linear regression analysis is applied to check the linkage between DOST and OMIT. The influence of atmospheric air temperature and relative humidity on OMIT at different pressure levels between 1000 and 20 hPa has been discussed.

Tropospheric ozone change from 1980 to 2010 dominated by equatorward redistribution of emissions.

Since 1980, anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors have decreased in developed regions, but increased in developing regions, particularly East and South Asia, redistributing emissions equatorwards1–4. Modeling studies have shown that the tropospheric ozone burden (BO3) is much more sensitive to emission changes in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH) than other regions5–9. However, the effect of the spatial redistribution of emissions has not been isolated. Here we use a global chemical transport model to consider changes in anthropogenic short-lived emissions from 1980 to 2010, and separate the influence of changes in the spatial distribution of emissions from the total emission increase, on BO3 and surface ozone. We estimate that the spatial distribution change increased BO3 by slightly more than the combined influences of changes in the global emission magnitude itself and in global methane. These results are explained by the strong convection, fast reaction rates, and strong NOx sensitivity in the tropics and subtropics. Emissions increases in Southeast, East, and South Asia may be most important for the BO3 change. The spatial distribution of emissions has a dominant effect on global tropospheric ozone, suggesting that the future ozone burden will be determined mainly by emissions from the tropics and subtropics.

Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly isoprene) may increase significantly in the coming decades if short-rotation coppice plantations are expanded strongly to meet the increased biofuel demand resulting from the EU decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the competing effects of anticipated trends in land use change, anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions and climate change on European ground level ozone concentrations and related health and environmental impacts until 2050. The work is based on a consistent set of energy consumption scenarios that underlie current EU climate and air quality policy proposals: a current legislation case, and an ambitious decarbonisation case. The Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model was used to calculate air pollutant emissions for these scenarios, while land use change because of bioenergy demand was calculated by the Global Biosphere Model (GLOBIOM). These datasets were fed into the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to calculate the impact on ground level ozone concentrations. Health damage because of high ground level ozone concentrations is projected to decline significantly towards 2030 and 2050 under current climate conditions for both energy scenarios. Damage to plants is also expected to decrease but to a smaller extent. The projected change in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is found to have a larger impact on ozone damage than land use change. The increasing effect of a warming climate (+2–5 °C across Europe in summer) on ozone concentrations and associated health damage, however, might be higher than the reduction achieved by cutting back European ozone precursor emissions. Global action to reduce air pollutant emissions is needed to make sure that ozone damage in Europe decreases towards the middle of this century.

Long-term exposure to ambient ozone and mortality: a quantitative systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from cohort studies

ObjectivesWhile there is good evidence for associations between short-term exposure to ozone and a range of adverse health outcomes, the evidence from narrative reviews for long-term exposure is suggestive of...

Drivers of the tropospheric ozone budget throughout the 21st century under the medium-high climate scenario RCP 6.0

Abstract. Because tropospheric ozone is both a greenhouse gas and harmful air pollutant, it is important to understand how anthropogenic activities may influence its abundance and distribution through the 21st century. Here, we present model simulations performed with the chemistry–climate model SOCOL, in which spatially disaggregated chemistry and transport tracers have been implemented in order to better understand the distribution and projected changes in tropospheric ozone. We examine the influences of ozone precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)), climate change (including methane effects) and stratospheric ozone recovery on the tropospheric ozone budget, in a simulation following the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 (a medium-high, and reasonably realistic climate scenario). Changes in ozone precursor emissions have the largest effect, leading to a global-mean increase in tropospheric ozone which maximizes in the early 21st century at 23% compared to 1960. The increase is most pronounced at northern midlatitudes, due to regional emission patterns: between 1990 and 2060, northern midlatitude tropospheric ozone remains at constantly large abundances: 31% larger than in 1960. Over this 70-year period, attempts to reduce emissions in Europe and North America do not have an effect on zonally averaged northern midlatitude ozone because of increasing emissions from Asia, together with the long lifetime of ozone in the troposphere. A simulation with fixed anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions of NOx, CO and non-methane VOCs at 1960 conditions shows a 6% increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone by the end of the 21st century, with an 11 % increase at northern midlatitudes. This increase maximizes in the 2080s and is mostly caused by methane, which maximizes in the 2080s following RCP 6.0, and plays an important role in controlling ozone directly, and indirectly through its influence on other VOCs and CO. Enhanced flux of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere as well as climate change-induced enhancements in lightning NOx emissions also increase the tropospheric ozone burden, although their impacts are relatively small. Overall, the results show that under this climate scenario, ozone in the future is governed largely by changes in methane and NOx; methane induces an increase in tropospheric ozone that is approximately one-third of that caused by NOx. Climate impacts on ozone through changes in tropospheric temperature, humidity and lightning NOx remain secondary compared with emission strategies relating to anthropogenic emissions of NOx, such as fossil fuel burning. Therefore, emission policies globally have a critical role to play in determining tropospheric ozone evolution through the 21st century.

Implications of RCP emissions for future changes in vegetative exposure to ozone in the western U.S.

AbstractFuture changes in anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors will likely impact seasonal vegetative ozone exposure, W126, in the western U.S. To investigate this, source‐receptor relationships are calculated with the GEOS‐Chem adjoint model and are separated by location, species, and sector. These are used to project changes in W126 through midcentury following representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions. The overall behavior of W126 is governed by declining domestic emissions. However, foreign emissions of NOx, non‐methane volatile organic compounds, and CO and CH4 abundance can either slow or enhance this trend, depending on scenario. The relative importance of foreign emissions increases as U.S. emissions decline, and, in some cases, the contribution of foreign sources exceeds that of domestic as early as 2020. In 2050, W126 in the western U.S. contributed by Chinese emissions alone, dominated by the industrial sector, is up to 15% higher than in 2000, although such estimates are strongly dependent on scenario.

Importance of Ship Emissions to Local Summertime Ozone Production in the Mediterranean Marine Boundary Layer: A Modeling Study

Ozone concentrations in the Mediterranean area regularly exceed the maximum levels set by the EU Air Quality Directive, 2008/50/CE, a maximum 8-h mean of 120 μg·m-3, in the summer, with consequences for both human health and agriculture. There are a number of reasons for this: the particular geographical and meteorological conditions in the Mediterranean play a part, as do anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions from around the Mediterranean and continental Europe. Ozone concentrations measured on-board the Italian Research Council’s R. V. Urania during summer oceanographic campaigns between 2000 and 2010 regularly exceeded 60 ppb, even at night. The WRF/Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry) model has been used to simulate tropospheric chemistry during the periods of the measurement campaigns, and then, the same simulations were repeated, excluding the contribution of maritime traffic in the Mediterranean to the anthropogenic emissions inventory. The differences in the model output suggest that, in large parts of the coastal zone of the Mediterranean, ship emissions contribute to 3 and 12 ppb to ground level daily average ozone concentrations. Near busy shipping lanes, up to 40 ppb differences in the hourly average ozone concentrations were found. It seems that ship emissions could be a significant factor in the exceedance of the EU directive on air quality in large areas of the Mediterranean Basin.

Future ozone and oxidants change under the RCP scenarios

We investigate ozone air quality changes in 2050 caused by global changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors by using a global chemical transport model driven by meteorological fields from a general circulation model. We use projected emissions based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and conduct model simulations to quantify the effects of climate and emission changes on future air quality, focusing on ozone in surface air. Our model results show that annual mean concentrations of surface ozone will be lower in 2050 relative to 2000 by −3.3, −3.7, and −4.2 ppbv under RCP6.0, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6, respectively. In contrast, the RCP8.5 projection results in a slight increase of 2.1 ppbv caused by a methane increase. The ozone reductions are driven primarily by decreases in NOx emission, which dominate the climate penalty on ozone driven by temperature increases. We also estimate the effect of 21st century climate change on ozone air quality, assuming no changes in anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors in the future. We further use a statistical method to analyze the results in order to quantify the effect of each meteorological variable change on ozone concentration in summer. Temperature increase is found to result in ozone increases of up to 2.2 ppbv over land. Ozone over the oceans, however, is largely reduced with specific humidity increase, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, where the ozone concentration decreases by 0.8 ppbv. We find that future increases in natural NOx emissions from lightning and soil make an important contribution to the formation of nitric acid and might seriously offset future decreases in nitrogen deposition caused by anthropogenic NOx emission reduction.

Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on European Ozone Levels

The objective of this study is to investigate the potential impact of future climate change on ozone air quality in Europe. To provide a full assessment, simulations with the global chemical transport model GEOS-CHEM driven by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (NASA/GISS GCM) are conducted. To isolate the effects from changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions four types of simulations are performed: (1) present-day climate and emissions (2) future climate following the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario and present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors (3) present-day climate and future emissions and (4) future climate and future emissions. Results indicate that climate change impact on its own leads to an increase of less than 3 ppb in western and central Europe whereas decreases are evident for the rest of the areas with the highest (about 2.5 ppb) in southeastern Europe (Italy, Greece). Increases are attributed to the increases of isoprene biogenic emissions due to increasing temperatures whereas decreases are associated with the increase of water vapor over sea which tends to decrease the lifetime of ozone as well as the increased wind speeds in the 2050 climate. When future emissions are implemented in the future climate simulations, the greatest increases are seen in the southwest and southeast Mediterranean (about 16 ppb) due to the increased isoprene biogenic emissions under higher levels of NO x in the model. Decreases up to 2 ppb of ozone are shown for France, Switzerland, Northern Italy and northern Europe.

A multi-model study of impacts of climate change on surface ozone in Europe

Abstract. The impact of climate change on surface ozone over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs) and one online regional integrated climate-chemistry model (CCM), driven by the same global projection of future climate under the SRES A1B scenario. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors from RCP4.5 for year 2000 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change and to assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The sensitivity of the simulated surface ozone to changes in climate between the periods 2000–2009 and 2040–2049 differs by a factor of two between the models, but the general pattern of change with an increase in southern Europe is similar across different models. Emissions of isoprene differ substantially between different CTMs ranging from 1.6 to 8.0 Tg yr−1 for the current climate, partly due to differences in horizontal resolution of meteorological input data. Also the simulated change in total isoprene emissions varies substantially across models explaining part of the different climate response on surface ozone. Ensemble mean changes in summer mean ozone and mean of daily maximum ozone are close to 1 ppb(v) in parts of the land area in southern Europe. Corresponding changes of 95-percentiles of hourly ozone are close to 2 ppb(v) in the same region. In northern Europe ensemble mean for mean and daily maximum show negative changes while there are no negative changes for the higher percentiles indicating that climate impacts on O3 could be especially important in connection with extreme summer events.

Projected risk of high ozone episodes in 2050

We investigate the effects of projected global changes in climate and human-related emissions for the year 2050 relative to 2000 for trends in the potential risk of hazardous ozone pollution episodes using a global climate chemistry model, CAM-Chem, driven by meteorology output from Community Climate System Model 3. Three distinct pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1FI, A1B and B1 are considered to address the range and uncertainty in projected climate and emission changes. The projected changes in extreme climate conditions are likely to intensify the associated extreme weather conditions that foster the risk of high ozone pollution episodes over many parts of the world. It is found that the changes in regional high surface ozone concentration by 2050 largely depends on changes in the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors. Our analysis under projected climate and emissions on the frequency of “hazardous ozone days” in which the peak ozone concentration exceed the limit in the summer of 2050, based on 8 and 1-h standards, show that the risk of hazardous ozone pollution episodes will likely increase in developing regions, but changes of risk in developed regions depend on scenarios. For three major pollutant regions, north America, Europe and East Asia under 8-h definition, the hazardous risk in all regions increases under the A1FI scenario with a potential rate of 39–79 days/summer by 2050, but it is likely to decrease over North America and Europe under the A1B and B1 scenarios. The risk on Europe under the A1B and B1 scenarios can be ignored, but a significant rate of 6–71 days/summer still occur on other regions. The relative variability in projected frequency of hazardous ozone days increase by using the 1-h definition, although it shows the highest risk of 17–59 days/summer under the A1FI scenario. The higher variability can be understood through statistical analysis of cumulative frequency distribution of daily peak ozone concentrations, which shows that the changes of surface ozone level are more significantly presented on the high value part.

Free tropospheric ozone changes over Europe as observed at Jungfraujoch (1990–2008): An analysis based on backward trajectories

[1] High-altitude ozone measurements at the Jungfraujoch observatory, Switzerland (JFJ, 3850 asl), covering the period 1990–2008 are investigated in this study. Anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions decreased over Europe and North America since the early 1990s. However, ozone concentrations at JFJ over the 19 year period show significant positive trends in the 1990s and no significant trends after 1999. Ozone trends were further studied with respect to air mass origin using 20 day back trajectories. The ozone increase during winter was particularly large in air masses with recent contact with the European planetary boundary layer (PBL), most probably in response to the steady decrease in European NO emissions leading to less ozone titration. On the other hand, the corresponding summer ozone increase was small, possibly attributable to the balancing effects of decreasing European ozone precursor emissions and increasing baseline ozone concentrations. Ozone from all source regions other than European PBL has a similar temporal pattern, exhibiting an increase for about the first 10 years, then leveling off to either no trend or insignificant decrease. This suggests that the physical processes determining the trend are beyond the time scale of the used backward trajectories or not described adequately by the simplified transport description in individual trajectories.