Regions Of Antarctica Research Articles

Identifying the Impacts of Sea Ice Variability on the Climate and Surface Mass Balance of West Antarctica

AbstractThe Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is the largest freshwater body on Earth and a major component of the sea level budget. Over the satellite era, the AIS has experienced ∼130 Gt/year of mass loss. Net losses are partially mitigated by snow accumulation that varies ∼100–130 Gt/yr, underscoring a need to understand the drivers of snowfall variability. Here, we evaluate impacts of decreased sea ice in the Amundsen Sea region of West Antarctica on the overlying atmosphere and surface mass balance of the adjacent AIS using composites, spatial correlations, and a causal effect network method. Importantly, our findings show sea ice declines in the Amundsen Sea lead to enhanced integrated water vapor that is subsequently transported to the AIS resulting in positive anomalies in West Antarctic ice sheet snowfall. Our results suggest future decreases in sea ice may likely enhance ice sheet snowfall, thus partially offsetting Antarctic sea level contributions.

The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry

Abstract. Theoretical and numerical work has shown that under certain circumstances grounding lines of marine-type ice sheets can enter phases of irreversible advance and retreat driven by the marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Instances of such irreversible retreat have been found in several simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, it has not been assessed whether the Antarctic grounding lines are already undergoing MISI in their current position. Here, we conduct a systematic numerical stability analysis using three state-of-the-art ice sheet models: Úa, Elmer/Ice, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). For the first two models, we construct steady-state initial configurations whereby the simulated grounding lines remain at the observed present-day positions through time. The third model, PISM, uses a spin-up procedure and historical forcing such that its transient state is close to the observed one. To assess the stability of these simulated states, we apply short-term perturbations to submarine melting. Our results show that the grounding lines around Antarctica migrate slightly away from their initial position while the perturbation is applied, and they revert once the perturbation is removed. This indicates that present-day retreat of Antarctic grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-sustained. However, our accompanying paper (Part 2, Reese et al., 2023a) shows that if the grounding lines retreated further inland, under present-day climate forcing, it may lead to the eventual irreversible collapse of some marine regions of West Antarctica.

Effects of assimilation of YOPP‐SH additional radiosonde observations on analyses and forecasts over Antarctica in austral summer

AbstractRadiosonde observations over Antarctica and the surrounding oceans were enhanced during the Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP‐SH) summer Special Observing Period (SOP). Observing System Experiments (OSEs) were conducted in a continuous cycling framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and its data assimilation system. Routinely available observations were assimilated in the CTL (control) experiment, and special radiosonde observations from the YOPP‐SH SOP were additionally assimilated in the YOPP experiment. The results were compared to investigate the effects of additional radiosonde observations on analyses and forecasts over and around Antarctica. Verifications against ERA5 re‐analysis, radiosonde observations, and Automatic Weather Station (AWS) observations show overall positive effects of additional radiosonde observations. These positive effects are most noticeable in temperature at lower levels at earlier forecast lead times; afterward, wind forecast improvements at upper levels are the most noticeable. Although routine and special radiosonde observations are concentrated over the eastern and coastal regions of Antarctica (compared to the western and inland regions), the effects of the extra data spread in longitudinal and latitudinal directions; therefore, the effects on the forecasts are not limited to only the areas near the radiosonde observations. A case study reveals how cyclone forecasts are improved through the assimilation of the additional YOPP‐SH SOP radiosonde observations. This study provides insights into future observation strategies in Antarctica, such as horizontal/vertical observation locations, observation variables, and so forth to maximize effects of new observations on forecasts over Antarctica.

A broadband seismological observatory at Larsemann Hills, Antarctica: Noise characteristics and data quality

Antarctica, the southernmost ice-covered continent, plays a pivotal role in unraveling Earth's intricate evolutionary processes. Several studies have been conducted to comprehend the crustal structure of West Antarctica. However, our understanding of the sub-surface structure in the East Antarctica region, particularly along Princess Elizabeth Land (PEL), remains limited due to the scarcity of geophysical data. To bridge this knowledge gap, we (NCESS) established a permanent broadband seismological observatory in the captivating region of Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica. In addition, we investigate the noise characteristics at the station, employing power spectral density (PSD) measurements. Results have been promising, indicating that the noise levels are within the range of New High Noise Model and New Low Noise Model. Monthly variations in PSD reveal different noise levels throughout the year, with winter months exhibiting lower levels of microseismic noise attributed to lower temperatures and frozen sea surfaces. The long-period noise is higher in April & May, possibly due to high-speed winds and lower in September & October. The outcomes serve as a testament to the success of our installation and ensure a valuable data set. The data will contribute to a comprehensive investigation of sub-surface structures in the PEL region of East Antarctica, enhancing our understanding of geological processes and tectonic evolution. Furthermore, the findings will serve as a valuable resource for future research and contribute to our knowledge of Earth's dynamic processes.

The Antarctic Amplification Based on MODIS Land Surface Temperature and ERA5

With global warming accelerating, polar amplification is one of the hot issues in climate research. However, most studies focus on Arctic amplification, and little attention has been paid to Antarctic amplification (AnA), and there is no relevant research based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land surface temperature observations. Compared with 128 stations’ observations, MODIS can capture the variations in temperature over Antarctica. In addition, the temperature changes in Antarctica, East Antarctica, West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula during the period 2001–2018 reflected by the MODIS and ERA5 are basically consistent, and the temperature changes in Antarctica are negatively correlated with the Southern Annular Mode. AnA occurs under all annual and seasonal scales, with an AnA index greater than 1.27 (1.31) from the MODIS (ERA5), and is strongest in the austral winter and weakest in summer. AnA displays regional differences, and the signal from the MODIS is similar to that from ERA5. The strongest amplification occurs in East Antarctica, with an AnA index greater than 1.45 (1.48) from the MODIS (ERA5), followed by West Antarctica, whereas the amplified signal is absent at the Antarctic Peninsula. In addition, seasonal differences can be observed in the sub regions of Antarctica. For West Antarctica, the greatest amplification appears in austral winter, and in austral spring for East Antarctica. The AnA signal also can be captured in daytime and nighttime observations, and the AnA in nighttime observations is stronger than that in daytime. Generally, the MODIS illustrates the appearance of AnA for the period 2001–2018, and the Antarctic climate undergoes drastic changes, and the potential impact should arouse attention.

Influence of seasonally varying sea-ice concentration and subsurface ocean heat on sea-ice thickness and sea-ice seasonality for a ‘warm-shelf’ region in Antarctica

AbstractProcesses driving changes in sea-ice seasonality and sea-ice thickness were explored for a ‘warm-shelf’ region along the West Antarctic Peninsula using vertically coupled sea-ice-ocean thermodynamic simulations, with and without assimilated satellite sea-ice observations and moored ocean temperature observations. Simulations with assimilated sea-ice observations permitted investigation of surface [thermodynamic and dynamic (e.g., wind-driven)] processes affecting sea-ice thickness and seasonality. Assimilation of quasi-weekly variability in the depth and temperature of the deep warm pycnocline permitted examination of subsurface processes affecting sea-ice. Simulations using assimilated sea-ice observations (and implied motion) always produced greater surface heat fluxes and overall thinner sea ice. Assimilating seasonal and quasi-weekly variability in the depth and temperature of the pycnocline modified the start of the sea-ice season by −23 to +1 d, and also modified the sea ice thickness/seasonality to be thinner/shorter or thicker/longer at sub-seasonal and seasonal timescales, highlighting a mechanism where a shoaling pycnocline enhanced upward deep-water heat fluxes as transient surface-induced turbulence had a greater effect on a reduced mixed layer volume. The observed interplay of surface, subsurface, and sea-ice modulation of ocean-atmosphere heat transfer underscores the importance of representing the interaction between sea-ice concentration and upper ocean variability in climate projections.

Site selection of Antarctic Research Stations in aspect of required optimum hybrid renewable system capacity

The population of Antarctica consists of scientific research personnel. The number of residents ranges from about 1,100 in the winter to about 4,400 in the summer and up to 1,000 additional personnel in the nearby waters. Even in summer, Antarctica's sub-zero temperature increases the energy consumption of buildings for heating purposes. At the same time, the absence of a grid system necessitates the use of off-grid fossil-based or renewable energy systems. Considering the natural environment and building conditions in the studies, the multiple evaluation of the ground process for research stations is grouped into four main criteria: scientific research, environment, logistical support and topography. In these studies, the capacity of the renewable energy system requirement was not examined. For this reason, in this study, the capacities of the optimum hybrid renewable energy systems in 16 locations selected from different regions of Antarctica were compared. In the study, typical meteorological climate data of 15 locations were obtained. The daily energy demand is obtained by calculating the daily electricity consumption of the electrical devices and heating system that can be used. Results of this study shows that according to purpose of the site, many locations that meets the requirements may exist with extremely different energy demands. In site selection, first the possile locations that supply the requirements should be determined, than energy demands and required systems should be compared.

Historical explosive activity of Mount Melbourne Volcanic Field (Antarctica) revealed by englacial tephra deposits

Five tephra layers named BRH1 to 5 were sampled in an ice cliff located on the north-eastern flank of Mount Melbourne (northern Victoria Land, Antarctica). The texture, componentry, mineralogy, and major and trace element compositions of glass shards have been used to characterize these layers. These properties suggest that they are primary fall deposits produced from discrete eruptions that experienced varying degrees of magma/water interaction. The major and trace element glass shard analyses on single glass shards indicate that Mount Melbourne Volcanic Field is the source of these tephra layers and the geochemical diversity highlights that the eruptions were fed by compositionally diverse melts that are interpreted to be from a complex magma system with a mafic melt remobilizing more evolved trachy-andesitic to trachytic magma pockets. Geochemical compositions, along with textural and mineralogical data, have allowed correlations between two of the englacial tephra and distal cryptotephra from Mount Melbourne, recovered within a marine sediment core in the Edisto Inlet (~ 280 km northeast of Mount Melbourne), and constrain the age of these englacial tephra layers to between the third and the fourth century CE. This work provides new evidence of the intense historical explosive activity of the Mount Melbourne Volcanic Field and better constrains the rates of volcanism in northern Victoria Land. These data grant new clues on the eruptive dynamics and tephra dispersal, and considerably expand the geochemical (major and trace elements) dataset available for the Mount Melbourne Volcanic Field. In the future, this will facilitate the precise identification of tephra layers from this volcanic source and will help define the temporal and spatial correlation between Antarctic records using tephra layers. Finally, this work also yields new valuable time-stratigraphic marker horizons for future dating, synchronization, and correlations of different palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic records across large regions of Antarctica.

Imputation of Ocean-color Product in Polynya Region of Antarctica for Primary Productivity Estimates

This study, focusing on the Antarctic polynyas, performed the imputation of chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) dataset, which is one of the ocean color products mainly used for estimating primary productivity, using the Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Function method and constructed accurate time-series data that excludes as much uncertainty as possible in long-term variability studies due to missing data. The polynya regions were classified into a total of 23 zones through quantitative criterions, and the statistical accuracy of imputation performance was 0.89 for R2 and 0.42, 0.24, and 0.15 for root mean square error, mean squared error, mean absolute error, respectively, on average, showing the ability to perform generally accurate reconstruction. Finally, the reconstructed Chl-a data showed a relatively stable fluctuation compared with standard satellite Chl-a data, and tended to be underestimated due to the expansion of the observable regions. We expect that securing these relatively stable and accurate estimates will be significantly different from the time-series data composed of standard Chl-a estimates, enabling more accurate variability and trend analysis.

Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica

AbstractIncreases in ocean temperatures in the Filchner Ronne region of Antarctica are likely to result in increased ice mass loss and sea level rise. We constrain projections of the 21st century sea level contribution of this region using process-based ice-sheet modeling, with model parameters controlling ice dynamics calibrated using observed surface speeds and Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling. We use climate forcing from Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios as well as a set of hypothetical scenarios of deep ocean warming to evaluate the sensitivity of this region to ocean temperatures. Projected changes in regional ice mass correspond to a decrease in global mean sea level of 24±7 mm over 2015–2100 under RCP 2.6 and 28±9 mm under RCP 8.5. Increased regional inland surface accumulation related to higher warming levels in RCP 8.5 leads to more ice above flotation, offsetting increased ice shelf basal melt. The tests involving step changes in ocean temperatures with constant surface forcing show that one degree of ocean warming from present results in an additional +11 mm contribution to sea level by 2100 and 1% of the ice-covered area in the domain becomes ungrounded (23 200 km2). The rate of mass loss with temperature increases at higher temperatures.

Activation of Existing Surface Crevasses Has Limited Impact on Grounding Line Flux of Antarctic Ice Streams

AbstractRecent studies have identified widespread vulnerable ice shelf regions in Antarctica which are both highly buttressed and susceptible to crevasse hydrofracturing, raising concern for potential crevasse driven ice‐shelf collapse and future sea level rise. Here, we employ the finite element ice flow model, Úa, to investigate whether crevasses which have propagated through the entire ice column have a significant impact on upstream flow and quantify their contribution to sea level rise. We find a large variability in the response of ice shelves to this perturbation, with changes in grounding line flux as large as 155% for the Filchner‐Ronne and 46% for the Ross, when compared to the present day. Crevasses located close to the grounding lines contribute most of this change. When compared to a second perturbation in which ice shelves are completely removed, however, the response is relatively small for all modeled ice shelves.

Source mechanisms and transport patterns of tropospheric bromine monoxide: findings from long-term multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy measurements at two Antarctic stations

Abstract. The presence of reactive bromine in polar regions is a widespread phenomenon that plays an important role in the photochemistry of the Arctic and Antarctic lower troposphere, including the destruction of ozone, the disturbance of radical cycles, and the oxidation of gaseous elemental mercury. The chemical mechanisms leading to the heterogeneous release of gaseous bromine compounds from saline surfaces are in principle well understood. There are, however, substantial uncertainties about the contribution of different potential sources to the release of reactive bromine, such as sea ice, brine, aerosols, and the snow surface, as well as about the seasonal and diurnal variation and the vertical distribution of reactive bromine. Here we use continuous long-term measurements of the vertical distribution of bromine monoxide (BrO) and aerosols at the two Antarctic sites Neumayer (NM) and Arrival Heights (AH), covering the periods of 2003–2021 and 2012–2021, respectively, to investigate how chemical and physical parameters affect the abundance of BrO. We find the strongest correlation between BrO and aerosol extinction (R=0.56 for NM and R=0.28 for AH during spring), suggesting that the heterogeneous release of Br2 from saline airborne particles (blowing snow and aerosols) is a dominant source for reactive bromine. Positive correlations between BrO and contact time of air masses, both with sea ice and the Antarctic ice sheet, suggest that reactive bromine is not only emitted by the sea ice surface but by the snowpack on the ice shelf and in the coastal regions of Antarctica. In addition, the open ocean appears to represent a source for reactive bromine during late summer and autumn when the sea ice extent is at its minimum. A source–receptor analysis based on back trajectories and sea ice maps shows that main source regions for BrO at NM are the Weddell Sea and the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf, as well as coastal polynyas where sea ice is newly formed. A strong morning peak in BrO frequently occurring during summer and that is particularly strong during autumn suggests a night-time build-up of Br2 by heterogeneous reaction of ozone on the saline snowpack in the vicinity of the measurement sites. We furthermore show that BrO can be sustained for at least 3 d while travelling across the Antarctic continent in the absence of any saline surfaces that could serve as a source for reactive bromine.

Verification of Estimated Cosmic Neutron Intensities Using a Portable Neutron Monitoring System in Antarctica

Many ongoing studies for predicting the production rates of cosmogenic nuclides, forecasting changes of atmospheric compositions and climate, assessing the cosmic-radiation exposure of aircraft crew, and the effects on precise electronic devices use numerical models that estimate cosmic-radiation intensities in the atmosphere. Periodic verifications of those models are desirable to be performed for assuring the reliability of the study outcomes. Here, we investigated an application of a portable neutron-monitoring system composed of an extended-energy-range neutron monitor and a small data logger for monitoring of cosmic-neutron intensities in a polar region. As a result of measurements in the east Antarctica region covering a wide range of altitudes (from 30 m to 3762 m) and comparisons with the model calculations performed with an analytical model based on comprehensive Monte Carlo simulations (PARMA), it was demonstrated that the portable neutron-monitoring system could be effectively applied for periodic verification of cosmic-neutron intensities that would improve the reliability of related studies.

Exploratory Mapping of Blue Ice Regions in Antarctica Using Very High-Resolution Satellite Remote Sensing Data

Mapping spatiotemporal changes in the distribution of blue ice regions (BIRs) in Antarctica requires repeated, precise, and high-resolution baseline maps of the blue ice extent. This study demonstrated the design and application of a newly-developed semi-automatic method to map BIRs in the Antarctic environment using very high-resolution (VHR) WorldView-2 (WV-2) satellite images. We discussed the potential of VHR satellite data for the mapping of BIRs in the Antarctic environment using a customized normalized-difference blue-ice index (NDBI) method devised using yellow, green, and near-infrared spectral bands of WV-2 data. We compared the viability of the newly developed customized NDBI approach against state-of-the-art target detection (TD), spectral processing (SP) and pixel-wise supervised (PSC) feature extraction (FE) approaches. Four semi-automatic FE approaches (three existing plus one newly developed) consisting of 16 standalone FE methods (12 existing + four customized) were evaluated using an extensive quantitative and comparative assessment for mapping BIRs in the vicinity of Schirmacher Oasis, on the continental Antarctic coastline. The results suggested that the customized NDBI approach gave a superior performance and the highest statistical stability when compared with existing FE techniques. The customized NDBI generally rendered the lowest level of misclassification (average RMSE = 654.48 ± 58.26 m2), followed by TD (average RMSE = 987.81 ± 55.05 m2), SP (average RMSE = 1327.09 ± 127.83 m2) and PSC (average RMSE = 2259.43 ± 115.36 m2) for mapping BIRs. Our results indicated that the use of the customized NDBI approach can greatly improve the semi-automatic mapping of BIRs in the Antarctic environment. This study presents the first refined map of distribution of BIRs around the Schirmacher Oasis. The total area of blue ice in the study area was estimated to be 106.875 km2, approximately 61% of the study area. The WV-2 derived BIR map area presented in this study locally refined the existing BIR map derived using Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based mosaic of Antarctica (MOA) dataset by ~31% (~33.40 km2). Finally, we discussed the practical challenges and future directions in mapping BIRs across Antarctica.

Asymmetric distribution of Pan-Antarctic snowmelt under changing Climate: In perspective of natural climatic events and marine biology

Understanding global climatic changes resulting from global warming and their impact on polar snowmelt and ocean biogeochemistry requires an assessment of the spatio-temporal variability of surface ice melt over the Antarctica region. Even though various studies have been carried out on the ice melts in the Antarctica region, there is a lack of studies related to biophysical (temperature and chlorophyll-a) parameters and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences in the Antarctica region. To address this problem, the present study assessed the ice melt and its impact on the Antarctica region from 2002 to 2021 using satellite-derived products of sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a (Chl), and snowmelt. After analyzing the data, it shows that larger ice shelves like Larsen, George VI, Brunt, Riiser-Larsen on the western side and Shackleton, West, and Totten on the eastern side are showing higher snowmelt than usual in a strong La Niña year (2010–2011) (ENSO index greater than −1.5 for austral summer months), while other ice shelves are showing a reduction in snowmelt. The Abbott ice shelf and parts of the Larsen and Ross ice shelves on the western side experienced higher snowmelt during a strong El Niño year (2015–2016) (ENSO index greater than + 1.5 for austral summer months). In contrast, inner land areas adjacent to the ice shelves experienced higher than usual snowmelt. Also, results revealed a significant increase in Chl from the open ocean towards the Antarctica continental shelf, where SST values are decreasing towards the shelf.Moreover, the present study provides critical information on the effect of ENSO on snowmelt and the impact of snowmelt on Chl and SST under changing climate conditions.

Correlation and interaction between temperature and freeze-thaw in representative regions of Antarctica

ABSTRACT As the most sensitive and direct indicator of global climate change, the freezing and thawing of the Antarctic ice sheet is of great significance for research on surface mass and energy balance. In this study, four representative regions in Antarctica were selected and correlation analysis, Granger causality testing, and cluster analysis were applied to comprehensively analyze the correlation and response of spatiotemporal variation in freeze-thaw and temperature. The conclusions are as follows. (1) In the Antarctic Peninsula, a phenomenon was demonstrated that the summer shifts rearward. Hotter December and colder March temperatures were observed in the Amery Ice Shelf and Queen Maud Land. (2) The Antarctic Peninsula featured the most severe degree of melting among the four regions, with the largest melt area in the past 30 years appearing during the 2015/2016 season. However, the number of melt days in most areas of the Antarctic Peninsula was observed to have decreased. (3) There is a strong correlation between the freeze-thaw state of the Antarctic ice sheet and temperature, as well as spatial differences among regions, but the data were clustered at different time scales.

Dynamical Analysis of Tropopause Folding Events in the Coastal Region of Antarctica

Abstract Tropopause folding events (TFs) are characterized by the rapid and deep descent of the tropopause and are considered to play a significant role in mass exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere. In the present study, TFs occurring in the Antarctic coastal region were examined using the ERA5 dataset. First, the climatological distribution of TF frequency in the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere was examined. Similar to results from previous studies, TFs were found to often occur along the coast of Antarctica, which is located more than 1000 km south of the maximum of the eddy kinetic energy of synoptic-scale disturbances. This result suggests that the climatological pattern of frequency of TFs in the southern high latitudes cannot be explained only by the geographical distribution of storm tracks. Next, a composite analysis of TFs at Syowa Station was performed. When the negative anomaly of the tropopause height was greatest, strong Q-vector divergence and downwelling were observed in the vicinity of the TF locations. The distribution of Q vectors is related to a local westerly jet and strengthening of the frontal structure associated with meridionally contracted synoptic-scale disturbances. The roles of the topography of the Antarctic Plateau and the radiative cooling on the surface of the continent during the contraction of the disturbances are also discussed based on ray-tracing theory.

Moho depths for Antarctica Region by the inversion of ground-based gravity data

Moho depths for Antarctica Region by the inversion of ground-based gravity data

Moho depths for Antarctica Region by the inversion of ground-based gravity data

SUMMARYIn the last years the scientific literature has been enriched with new models of the Moho depth in the Antarctica Continent derived by the seismic reflection technique and refraction profiles, receiver functions and seismic surface waves, but also by gravimetric observations over the continent. In particular, the gravity satellite missions of the last two decades have provided data in this remote region of the Earth and have allowed the investigation of the crust properties. Meanwhile, other important contributions in this direction has been given by the fourth International Polar Year (IPY, 2007–2008) which started seismographic and geodetic networks of unprecedented duration and scale, including airborne gravimetry over largely unexplored Antarctic frontiers. In this study, a new model for the Antarctica Moho depths is proposed. This new estimation is based on no satellite gravity measures, thanks to the availability of the gravity database ANTGG2015, that collects gravity data from ground-base, airborne and shipborne campaigns. In this new estimate of the Moho depths the contribution of the gravity measures has been maximized reducing any correction of the gravity measures and avoiding constraints of the solution to seismological observations and to geological evidence. With this approach a pure gravimetric solution has been determined. The model obtained is pretty in agreement with other Moho models and thanks to the use of independent data it can be exploited also for cross-validating different Moho depths solutions.

Mesoscale evaluation of AMPS using AWARE radar observations of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica

AbstractSurface, upper‐air, and radar observations are used to assess the performance of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) in simulating the mesoscale aspects of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica that spanned January 16–20, 2016. The observations, collected during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), provide a unique dataset for evaluating AMPS, especially the radar observations that facilitate a three‐dimensional depiction of winds and precipitation. Comparisons of AMPS forecast data with surface meteorology, balloon‐sounding, and profiling radar observations at and above sites near McMurdo Station reveal a mixture of similarities and differences. A generally southerly flow is evident at low levels in both the AMPS simulations and observed Doppler radial velocities. AMPS winds are comparable to those observed at the surface and aloft in terms of magnitude, direction, and timing but the strongest simulated southerly flow is displaced eastward relative to the observations. AMPS‐simulated reflectivity over the broader Ross Island region is more limited in areal extent and smaller in magnitude than observed by a scanning Doppler radar. Three episodes of surface precipitation are observed near McMurdo Station over the five‐day event with peak rates of ∼3 mm h−1 and a total accumulation of ∼22 mm. However, AMPS produces no surface precipitation at that location over the five‐day event due to a low‐level dry bias in the forecasts. The results show the first observationally based three‐dimensional understanding of meteorology in the Ross Island region.