Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Research Articles

Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models

Satellite observations show a small overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) over the period 1979–2015. However, this upward trend needs to be balanced against recent pronounced SIE fluctuations occurring there. In the space of 3 years, the SIE sank from its highest value ever reached in September 2014 to record low in February 2017. In this work, a set of six state-of-the-art global climate models is used to evaluate the potential predictability of the Antarctic sea ice at such timescales. This first multi-model study of Antarctic sea ice predictability reveals that the ice edge location can potentially be predicted up to 3 years in advance. However, the ice edge location predictability shows contrasted seasonal performances, with high predictability in winter and no predictability in summer. The reemergence of the predictability from one winter to next is provided by the ocean through its large thermal inertia. Sea surface heat anomalies are stored at depth at the end of the winter and influences the sea ice advance the following year as they resurface. The effectiveness of this mechanism across models is found to depend upon the depth of the mixed layer. One should be very cautious about these potential predictability estimates as there is evidence that the Antarctic sea ice predictability is promoted by deep Southern Ocean convection. We therefore suspect models with excessive convection to show higher sea ice potential predictability results due to an incorrect representation of the Southern Ocean.

Atmospheric influences on the anomalous 2016 Antarctic sea ice decay

Abstract. In contrast to the Arctic, where total sea ice extent (SIE) has been decreasing for the last three decades, Antarctic SIE has shown a small, but significant, increase during the same time period. However, in 2016, an unusually early onset of the melt season was observed; the maximum Antarctic SIE was already reached as early as August rather than the end of September, and was followed by a rapid decrease. The decay was particularly strong in November, when Antarctic SIE exhibited a negative anomaly (compared to the 1979–2015 average) of approximately 2 million km2. ECMWF Interim reanalysis data showed that the early onset of the melt and the rapid decrease in sea ice area (SIA) and SIE were associated with atmospheric flow patterns related to a positive zonal wave number three (ZW3) index, i.e., synoptic situations leading to strong meridional flow and anomalously strong southward heat advection in the regions of strongest sea ice decline. A persistently positive ZW3 index from May to August suggests that SIE decrease was preconditioned by SIA decrease. In particular, in the first third of November northerly flow conditions in the Weddell Sea and the Western Pacific triggered accelerated sea ice decay, which was continued in the following weeks due to positive feedback effects, leading to the unusually low November SIE. In 2016, the monthly mean Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index reached its second lowest November value since the beginning of the satellite observations. A better spatial and temporal coverage of reliable ice thickness data is needed to assess the change in ice mass rather than ice area.

The Nexus between Sea Ice and Polar Emissions of Marine Biogenic Aerosols

AbstractAccurate estimation of the climate sensitivity requires a better understanding of the nexus between polar marine ecosystem responses to warming, changes in sea ice extent, and emissions of marine biogenic aerosol (MBA). Sea ice brine channels contain very high concentrations of MBA precursors that, once ventilated, have the potential to alter cloud microphysical properties, such as cloud droplet number, and the regional radiative energy balance. In contrast to temperate latitudes, where the pelagic phytoplankton are major sources of MBAs, the seasonal sea ice dynamic plays a key role in determining MBA concentration in both the Arctic and Antarctic. We review the current knowledge of MBA sources and the link between ice melt and emissions of aerosol precursors in the polar oceans. We illustrate the processes by examining decadal-scale time series in various satellite-derived parameters such as aerosol optical depth (AOD), sea ice extent, and phytoplankton biomass in the sea ice zones of both hemispheres. The sharpest gradients in aerosol indicators occur during the spring period of ice melt. In sea ice–covered waters, the peak in AOD occurs well before the annual maximum in biomass in both hemispheres. The results provide strong evidence that suggests seasonal changes in sea ice and ocean biology are key drivers of the polar aerosol cycle. The positive trend in annual-mean Antarctic sea ice extent is now almost one-third of the magnitude of the annual-mean decrease in Arctic sea ice, suggesting the potential for different patterns of aerosol emissions in the future.

Impact of increasing antarctic glacial freshwater release on regional sea-ice cover in the Southern Ocean

The sensitivity of Antarctic sea-ice to increasing glacial freshwater release into the Southern Ocean is studied in a series of 31-year ocean/sea-ice/iceberg model simulations. Glaciological estimates of ice-shelf melting and iceberg calving are used to better constrain the spatial distribution and magnitude of freshwater forcing around Antarctica. Two scenarios of glacial freshwater forcing have been designed to account for a decadal perturbation in glacial freshwater release to the Southern Ocean. For the first time, this perturbation explicitly takes into consideration the spatial distribution of changes in the volume of Antarctic ice shelves, which is found to be a key component of changes in freshwater release. In addition, glacial freshwater-induced changes in sea ice are compared to typical changes induced by the decadal evolution of atmospheric states. Our results show that, in general, the increase in glacial freshwater release increases Antarctic sea ice extent. But the response is opposite in some regions like the coastal Amundsen Sea, implying that distinct physical mechanisms are involved in the response. We also show that changes in freshwater forcing may induce large changes in sea-ice thickness, explaining about one half of the total change due to the combination of atmospheric and freshwater changes. The regional contrasts in our results suggest a need for improving the representation of freshwater sources and their evolution in climate models.

Holocene sea ice variability driven by wind and polynya efficiency in the Ross Sea

The causes of the recent increase in Antarctic sea ice extent, characterised by large regional contrasts and decadal variations, remain unclear. In the Ross Sea, where such a sea ice increase is reported, 50% of the sea ice is produced within wind-sustained latent-heat polynyas. Combining information from marine diatom records and sea salt sodium and water isotope ice core records, we here document contrasting patterns in sea ice variations between coastal and open sea areas in Western Ross Sea over the current interglacial period. Since about 3600 years before present, an increase in the efficiency of regional latent-heat polynyas resulted in more coastal sea ice, while sea ice extent decreased overall. These past changes coincide with remarkable optima or minima in the abundances of penguins, silverfish and seal remains, confirming the high sensitivity of marine ecosystems to environmental and especially coastal sea ice conditions.

Time‐Dependent Freshwater Input From Ice Shelves: Impacts on Antarctic Sea Ice and the Southern Ocean in an Earth System Model

AbstractEarth System Models do not reproduce the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent which may be due to the unrealistic representation of ice shelves. Here we investigate the response of sea ice to increasing freshwater input from ice shelves using the Community Earth System Model with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 [CESM1(CAM5)]. We have conducted model experiments adding fresh water as if from ice shelf melt with a linear increase in the rate of input over the period 1980–2013. Including the effect of heat loss from the ocean to melt ice shelves resulted in significantly more positive trends in sea ice area. We found that an increase in the rate of change of freshwater input of ∼45 Gt yr−2 was sufficient to offset the negative trend in sea ice area in CESM1(CAM5), although the freshwater input by the end of the experiment was larger than observed at that time.

Modulation of the Seasonal Cycle of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Related to the Southern Annular Mode

AbstractThrough analysis of remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration data, we investigate the impact of winds related to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on sea ice extent around Antarctica. We show that positive SAM anomalies in the austral summer are associated with anomalously cold SSTs that persist and lead to anomalous ice growth in the following autumn, while negative SAM anomalies precede warm SSTs and a reduction in sea ice extent during autumn. The largest effect occurs in April, when a unit change in the detrended summertime SAM is followed by a 1.8±0.6 ×105 km2 change in detrended sea ice extent. We find no evidence that sea ice extent anomalies related to the summertime SAM affect the wintertime sea ice extent maximum. Our analysis shows that the wind anomalies related to the negative SAM during the 2016/2017 austral summer contributed to the record minimum Antarctic sea ice extent observed in March 2017.

Roles of wind stress and thermodynamic forcing in recent trends in Antarctic sea ice and Southern Ocean SST: An ocean-sea ice model study

In contrast to a strong decrease in Arctic sea ice extent, overall Antarctic sea ice extent has modestly increased since 1979. Several hypotheses have been proposed for the net Antarctic sea ice expansion, including atmosphere/ocean circulation and temperature changes, sea ice-atmospheric-ocean feedback, increased precipitation, and enhanced basal meltwater from ice shelves. Concomitant with this positive trend in Antarctic sea ice, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Southern Ocean south of approximately 45°S have cooled over this period. However, the mechanisms responsible for the Antarctic sea ice expansion and the SST cooling trend remain poorly defined. Here, we conduct comprehensive sensitivity experiments using a coupled ocean-sea ice model with a steady-state ice shelf component in order to investigate the main drivers of recent trends in Antarctic sea ice and SST over the Southern Ocean. The results suggest that Antarctic sea ice expansion is mostly explained by trends in the thermodynamic surface forcing, notably cooling and drying and a reduction in longwave radiation. Similarly, thermodynamic forcing is found to be the main driver of the zonal SST cooling trend. While apparently less influential on sea ice extent and SST, wind stress plays a key role in sea ice motion, thickening coastal sea ice, and thinning and decreasing the concentration of ice in mid-pack regions of the Amundsen-eastern Ross seas and 65–95°E in winter-spring. Furthermore, the model suggests that ocean-ice shelf interaction does not significantly influence the observed trends in Antarctic sea ice coverage and Southern Ocean SST in recent decades.

Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979–2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

Conditions leading to the unprecedented low Antarctic sea ice extent during the 2016 austral spring season

AbstractThe 2016 austral spring was characterized by the lowest Southern Hemisphere (SH) sea ice extent seen in the satellite record (1979 to present) and coincided with anomalously warm surface waters surrounding most of Antarctica. We show that two distinct processes contributed to this event: First, the extreme El Niño event peaking in December–February 2015/2016 contributed to pronounced extratropical SH sea surface temperature and sea ice extent anomalies in the eastern Ross, Amundsen, and Bellingshausen Seas that persisted in part until the following 2016 austral spring. Second, internal unforced atmospheric variability of the Southern Annular Mode promoted the exceptional low sea ice extent in November–December 2016. These results suggest that a combination of tropically forced and internal SH atmospheric variability contributed to the unprecedented sea ice decline during the 2016 austral spring, on top of a background of slow changes expected from greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.

Brief communication: Increasing shortwave absorption over the Arctic Ocean is not balanced by trends in the Antarctic

Abstract. On the basis of a new, consistent, long-term observational satellite dataset we show that, despite the observed increase of sea ice extent in the Antarctic, absorption of solar shortwave radiation in the Southern Ocean poleward of 60° latitude is not decreasing. The observations hence show that the small increase in Antarctic sea ice extent does not compensate for the combined effect of retreating Arctic sea ice and changes in cloud cover, which both result in a total increase in solar shortwave energy deposited into the polar oceans.

A late Quaternary record of seasonal sea surface temperatures off southern Africa

The southern Cape coastal region is important for understanding both the behavioural history of modern humans, and regional and global climate dynamics, because it boasts a long archaeological record and occupies a key geographical location near the intersection of two major oceans. The western boundary Agulhas Current, implicated in global heat exchange dynamics, is an important modulator of southern African climates and yet we understand its past behaviour only broadly as the Current itself scours the coastal shelf and marine sediment core records necessarily provide little detail. Numerous archaeological sites from both the late Pleistocene and Holocene provide the opportunity for reconstruction of near-shore seasonal SST records, which respond both to localized wind-driven upwellings and Agulhas temperature shifts, corresponding in turn with terrestrial precipitation trends in the near-coastal and summer rainfall regions. Here we present a record of seasonal SSTs extending over MIS5, MIS4, and the Holocene, from serial δ18O measurements of a single gastropod species, Turbo sarmaticus. The results show that mean SST shifts accord well with global SST trends, although they are larger than those recorded in the Agulhas Current from coarser-scale marine sediment records. Comparison with a record of Antarctic sea-ice suggests that annual SST amplitude responds to Antarctic sea-ice extent, reflecting the positioning of the regional wind systems that drive upwelling dynamics along the coast. Thus, near-shore SST seasonality reflects the relative dominance of the westerly and easterly wind systems. These data provide a new climate archive for an important but understudied climate system.

Unprecedented springtime retreat of Antarctic sea ice in 2016

AbstractDuring austral spring 2016 Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) decreased at a record rate of 75 × 103 km2 d−1, which was 46% faster than the mean rate and 18% faster than in any previous spring season during the satellite era. The decrease of sea ice area was also exceptional and 28% greater than the mean. Anomalous negative retreat occurred in all sectors of the Antarctic but was greatest in the Weddell and Ross Seas. Record negative SIE anomalies for the day of year were recorded from 3 November 2016 to 9 April 2017. Rapid ice retreat in the Weddell Sea took place in strong northerly flow after an early maximum ice extent in late August. Rapid ice retreat occurred in November in the Ross Sea when surface pressure was at a record high level, with the Southern Annular Mode at its most negative for that month since 1968.

Preconditioning of Antarctic maximum sea ice extent by upper ocean stratification on a seasonal timescale

AbstractThis study uses an observationally constrained and dynamically consistent ocean and sea ice state estimate. The author presents a remarkable agreement between the location of the edge of Antarctic maximum sea ice extent, reached in September, and the narrow transition band for the upper ocean (0–100 m depths) stratification, as early as April to June. To the south of this edge, the upper ocean has high stratification, which forbids convective fluxes to cross through; consequently, the ocean heat loss to the atmosphere is an efficient way to cool the surface ocean to the freezing point during April to September. To the north, the upper ocean has low stratification such that the ocean heat loss to the atmosphere is not efficient to cool the upper ocean. The upper ocean is instead cooled mainly through mixing with the colder inflow carried by northward Ekman transport but cannot reach the freezing point due to the nature of mixing. Therefore, upper ocean stratification, dominated by salinity here, provides an important constraint on the northward expansion of Antarctic sea ice to its maximum.

Sea salt sodium record from Talos Dome (East Antarctica) as a potential proxy of the Antarctic past sea ice extent

Antarctic sea ice has shown an increasing trend in recent decades, but with strong regional differences from one sector to another of the Southern Ocean. The Ross Sea and the Indian sectors have seen an increase in sea ice during the satellite era (1979 onwards). Here we present a record of ssNa+ flux in the Talos Dome region during a 25-year period spanning from 1979 to 2003, showing that this marker could be used as a potential proxy for reconstructing the sea ice extent in the Ross Sea and Western Pacific Ocean at least for recent decades. After finding a positive relationship between the maxima in sea ice extent for a 25-year period, we used this relationship in the TALDICE record in order to reconstruct the sea ice conditions over the 20th century. Our tentative reconstruction highlighted a decline in the sea ice extent (SIE) starting in the 1950s and pointed out a higher variability of SIE starting from the 1960s and that the largest sea ice extents of the last century occurred during the 1990s.

Positive Trend in the Antarctic Sea Ice Cover and Associated Changes in Surface Temperature.

The Antarctic sea ice extent has been slowly increasing contrary to expected trends due to global warming and results from coupled climate models. After a record high extent in 2012 the extent was even higher in 2014 when the magnitude exceeded 20×106 km2 for the first time during the satellite era. The positive trend is confirmed with a newly reprocessed sea ice data that addressed inconsistency issues in the time series. The variability in sea ice extent and ice area was studied alongside surface ice temperature for the 34-year period starting 1981 and the result of the analysis show a strong correlation of -0.94 during the growth season and -0.86 during the melt season. The correlation coefficients are even stronger with a one-month lag in surface temperature at -0.96 during the growth season and -0.98 during the melt season suggesting that the trend in sea ice cover is strongly influenced by the trend in surface temperature. The correlation with atmospheric circulation as represented by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index appears to be relatively weak. A case study comparing the record high in 2014 with a relatively low ice extent in 2015 also shows strong sensitivity to changes in surface temperature. The results suggest that the positive trend is a consequence of the spatial variability of global trends in surface temperature and that the ability of current climate models to forecast sea ice trend can be improved through better performance in reproducing observed surface temperatures in the Antarctic region.

Paleoclimatic Signals from the Proxy Records of the Southern Ocean: A Review

Antarctic sea-ice extent and oceanic frontal systems are of primary importance to the marine biota since their marked meridional gradients in physical and chemical properties strongly regulate the phytoplankton contribution to primary productivity.Antarctic sea ice extent along with the Southern Ocean (SO) biological productivity varied considerably during glacial-interglacial periods, and both are known to have played a considerable role in regulating atmospheric CO2 variations in the past. In the present review paper, we seek to understand the past latitudinal variability of the Southern Ocean frontal systems and Antarctic sea-ice extent based on a multi-proxy approach. The first aspect of this paper concentrates on the diatom based reconstructions of paleo sea-ice and hydrographic changes in the Southern Ocean and its impact on diatom sizes and productivity. Secondly, emphasis would be placed on the studies based on the morphology and isotopic composition of foraminifera and its paleoceanographic implication. The foraminifera shell preserved in the sediments provide unparalleled archives of morphological change, faunal variations, and habitat characteristics as a result of hydrographic changes. To sum up, the advantage of a mulitproxy approach including the magnetic, geochemical and sedimentological parameters have been discussed in understanding the Southern Ocean paleoclimate.

Increase of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is highly significant only in the Ross Sea

In the context of global warming, the question of why Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) has increased is one of the most fundamental unsolved mysteries. Although many mechanisms have been proposed, it is still unclear whether the increasing trend is anthropogenically originated or only caused by internal natural variability. In this study, we employ a new method where the underlying natural persistence in the Antarctic SIE can be correctly accounted for. We find that the Antarctic SIE is not simply short-term persistent as assumed in the standard significance analysis, but actually characterized by a combination of both short- and long-term persistence. By generating surrogate data with the same persistence properties, the SIE trends over Antarctica (as well as five sub-regions) are evaluated using Monte-Carlo simulations. It is found that the SIE trends over most sub-regions of Antarctica are not statistically significant. Only the SIE over Ross Sea has experienced a highly significant increasing trend (p = 0.008) which cannot be explained by natural variability. Influenced by the positive SIE trend over Ross Sea, the SIE over the entire Antarctica also increased over the past decades, but the trend is only at the edge of being significant (p = 0.034).

SSA analysis and forecasting of records for Earth temperature and ice extents

In this paper, we continued the research started in [6, 7]. We applied the so-called Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to forecast the Earth temperature records, to examine cross-correlations between these records, the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). We have concluded that that the pattern observed in the last 15 years for the Earth temperatures is not going to change much, found very high cross-correlations between a lagged ONI index and some Earth temperature series and noticed several signifi- cant cross-correlations between the ONI index and the sea ice extent anomalies; these cross-correlations do not seem to be well-known to the specialists on Earth climate.

Estimating the extent of Antarctic summer sea ice during the Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration

Abstract. In stark contrast to the sharp decline in Arctic sea ice, there has been a steady increase in ice extent around Antarctica during the last three decades, especially in the Weddell and Ross seas. In general, climate models do not to capture this trend and a lack of information about sea ice coverage in the pre-satellite period limits our ability to quantify the sensitivity of sea ice to climate change and robustly validate climate models. However, evidence of the presence and nature of sea ice was often recorded during early Antarctic exploration, though these sources have not previously been explored or exploited until now. We have analysed observations of the summer sea ice edge from the ship logbooks of explorers such as Robert Falcon Scott, Ernest Shackleton and their contemporaries during the Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration (1897–1917), and in this study we compare these to satellite observations from the period 1989–2014, offering insight into the ice conditions of this period, from direct observations, for the first time. This comparison shows that the summer sea ice edge was between 1.0 and 1.7° further north in the Weddell Sea during this period but that ice conditions were surprisingly comparable to the present day in other sectors.