Southern Annular Mode Research Articles

Interdecadal change in the relationship between the Antarctic oscillation and autumn rainfall in the Yunnan–Guizhou plateau of Southwest China

AbstractThe interdecadal change in the relationship between the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and autumn rainfall in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau of Southwest China is investigated by using the observed autumn rainfall data at 119 stations and the National Centers for Environment Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data for the period 1961–2021. Results show the AAO correlates well with the autumn rainfall in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau for the second period (2002–2021) because the AAO becomes stronger. The possible influencing mechanism of AAO on autumn rainfall in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau during 2002–2021 is related to the meridional teleconnection pattern and associated convection over the Philippine Sea. The positive AAO can trigger a meridional teleconnection pattern in the upper troposphere to propagate from the southern Pacific to northern Pacific and cause anomalous westerly over the tropical west Pacific, which inhibits the convection over the Philippine Sea. On the one hand, the weakened convection over the Philippine Sea causes the anomalous ascending motion over the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau; on the other hand, it results in an anomalous anticyclone over the tropical Northwest Pacific and strengthens the transport of water vapor from the tropical Pacific to the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau.

Rapid decline in extratropical Andean snow cover driven by the poleward migration of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies.

Seasonal snow in the extratropical Andes is a primary water source for major rivers supplying water for drinking, agriculture, and hydroelectric power in Central Chile. Here, we used estimates from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to analyze changes in snow cover extent over the period 2001-2022 in a total of 18 watersheds spanning approximately 1,100km across the Chilean Andes (27-36°S). We found that the annual snow cover extent is receding in the watersheds analyzed at an average pace of approximately 19% per decade. These alarming trends have impacted meltwater runoff, resulting in historically low river streamflows during the dry season. We examined streamflow records dating back to the early 1980s for 10 major rivers within our study area. Further comparisons with large-scale climate modes suggest that the detected decreasing trends in snow cover extent are likely driven by the poleward migration of the westerly winds associated with a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

Climate Extremes in the New Zealand Region: Mechanisms, Impacts and Attribution

ABSTRACTAs global surface temperatures have increased with human‐induced climate change, notable compound climate extremes in the New Zealand (NZ) region associated with atmospheric heatwaves (AHWs) and marine heatwaves (MHWs) have occurred in the past 6 years. Natural modes of variability that also played a key role regionally include the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and changes in the location and strength of the westerlies as seen in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Along with mean warming of 0.8°C since 1900, a negative phase of the IPO, La Niña phase of ENSO and a strongly positive SAM contributed to five compound warm extremes in the extended austral summer seasons (NDJFM) of 1934/35, 2017/18, 2018/19, 2021/22 and 2022/23. These are the most intense coupled ocean/atmosphere (MHWs/AHWs) heatwaves on record with average temperature anomalies over land and sea +0.8°C to 1.1°C above 1991–2020 averages. The number of days above 25°C and above the 90th percentile of maximum temperature has increased, while the number of nights below 0°C and below the 10th percentile has decreased. Coastal waters around NZ recently experienced their longest MHW in the satellite era (1982‐present) of 289 days through 2023. The estimated recurrence interval reduces from 1 in 300‐years for the AHW event during the 1930s climate to a 1 in 25‐year event for the most recent decade. Consequences include major loss of ice of almost one‐third volume from Southern Alps glaciers from 2017 to 2021 with rapid melt of seasonal snow in all four cases. Above‐average temperatures in the December/January grape flowering period resulted in advances in veraison (the onset of ripening); and higher‐than‐average grape yields in 2022 and 2023 vintages. Marine impacts include widespread sea‐sponge bleaching around northern and southern NZ.

Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability triggered by Southern Annular Mode and deep convection

Antarctic sea ice exerts great influence on Earth’s climate by controlling the exchange of heat, momentum, freshwater, and gases between the atmosphere and ocean. Antarctic sea ice extent has undergone a multidecadal slight increase followed by a substantial decline since 2016. Here we utilize a 300-yr sea ice data assimilation reconstruction and two NOAA/GFDL and five CMIP6 model simulations to demonstrate a multidecadal variability of Antarctic sea ice extent. Stronger westerlies associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) enhance the upwelling of warm and saline water from the subsurface ocean. The consequent salinity increase weakens the upper-ocean stratification, induces deep convection, and in turn brings more subsurface warm and saline water to the surface. This salinity-convection feedback triggered by the SAM provides favorable conditions for multidecadal sea ice decrease. Processes acting in reverse are found to cause sea ice increase, although it evolves slower than sea ice decrease.

Observed Associations between Fire Danger and Climate Modes and Their Representation in ACCESS-S2

Abstract The increasing frequency and severity of wildfires in Australia, driven by climate change, pose a significant threat to ecosystems, lives, and property. This study examines the impact of climate drivers, specifically El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and two modes of persistent high pressure in the Australia–Pacific region, on extreme fire danger. By analyzing observed and simulated fire danger in relation to these climate drivers, we aim to enhance our understanding of climate–fire mechanisms and contribute to Australia’s bushfire preparedness. Our findings indicate that all assessed drivers influence extreme fire danger, with key influences related to the drivers’ established relationships with rainfall and temperature. El Niño, positive IOD, and negative SAM events generally increase extreme fire danger across most of Australia and in most seasons. The two modes of Australian blocking exhibit similar effects, varying spatially. Specific phases of the MJO have significant seasonal relationships with fire danger. In some instances, increased fire danger is not directly linked to temperature or precipitation changes but rather driven by remote teleconnections, airflow, or pressure anomalies. Evaluating the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting systems in representing these relationships is crucial for the effective prediction and mitigation of fire hazards. The leading Australian climate simulation model effectively reproduces observed relationships but reveals biases in capturing certain aspects of climate variability. Advancements in this field would enhance fire weather forecasts, including those by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology with lead times of up to 4 months. Significance Statement This assessment of climate–fire relationships and modeling accuracy is pivotal in understanding the factors behind severe fire events and improving future predictions and mitigation. Prior research has already established links between elevated fire weather conditions and these climate drivers, highlighting their potential for predicting severe fire events. This study aims to deepen our comprehension of the factors driving severe fire events and facilitate improved bushfire risk management in Australia.

Variations of Lake Ice Phenology Derived from MODIS LST Products and the Influencing Factors in Northeast China

Lake ice phenology serves as a sensitive indicator of climate change in the lake-rich Northeast China. In this study, the freeze-up date (FUD), break-up date (BUD), and ice cover duration (ICD) of 31 lakes were extracted from a time series of the land water surface temperature (LWST) derived from the combined MOD11A1 and MYD11A1 products for the hydrological years 2001 to 2021. Our analysis showed a high correlation between the ice phenology measures derived by our study and those provided by hydrological records (R2 of 0.89) and public datasets (R2 > 0.7). There was a notable coherence in lake ice phenology in Northeast China, with a trend in later freeze-up (0.21 days/year) and earlier break-up (0.19 days/year) dates, resulting in shorter ice cover duration (0.50 days/year). The lake ice phenology of freshwater lakes exhibited a faster rate of change compared to saltwater lakes during the period from HY2001 to HY2020. We used redundancy analysis and correlation analysis to study the relationships between the LWST and lake ice phenology with various influencing factors, including lake properties, local climate factors, and atmospheric circulation. Solar radiation, latitude, and air temperature were found to be the primary factors. The FUD was more closely related to lake characteristics, while the BUD was linked to local climate factors. The large-scale oscillations were found to influence the changes in lake ice phenology via the coupled influence of air temperature and precipitation. The Antarctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation correlate more with LWST in winter, and the Arctic Oscillation correlates more with the ICD.

Spatiotemporal variations of global precipitation concentration and potential links to flood-drought events in past 70 years

The evaluation of precipitation events is crucial for predicting severe droughts and floods, particularly in the context of global warming. This study presents a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of the global precipitation concentration index (CI) from 1950 to 2020, comparing CI with nine extreme precipitation indices to assess its applicability. The world map was divided into three distinct regions related to flood-drought events using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Key findings include: 1) CI exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with elevated values in seasonally warm coastlines and arid regions. Seasonal changes in CI were not synchronized, particularly lower in Northern Hemisphere winters, while the Southern Hemisphere displayed minor seasonal variation, alongside a long-term growth trend in approximately 36.5 % of the global area. 2) CI's spatiotemporal variations helped delineating regional precipitation patterns, revealing a strong correlation (R2 = 0.87) with the extreme precipitation index R95c, but a negligible relationship with total precipitation (P) (R2 = −0.05). This facilitated the global partitioning into three regions: Humidity Amplification Region (I), Dryness Intensification Region (II), and Climate Fluctuation Region (III). 3) Flood-drought events were potentially linked to variations in CI and P, where In Region I experienced increased flood risk due to rising CI and P, Region II faced heightened drought risk from rising CI and declining P, and Region III showed opposing effects on floods due to reduced CI and increased P, with P variability significantly influencing flood frequency. 4) The main atmospheric circulation factors varied by region, typically including the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), with AAO being most significant. This research underscores the intricate relationships between climatic indices and hydrological extremes, emphasizing the challenges posed by global warming, atmospheric circulation changes, and data uncertainties in assessing drought and flood disasters.

Trend and teleconnection analysis of temperature extremes in New South Wales, Australia

AbstractThis study investigates possible trends and teleconnections in temperature extremes in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Daily maximum and minimum temperature data covering the period 1971–2021 at 26 stations located in NSW were used. Three indices, which focus on daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and average daily temperature in terms of Excessive Heat Factor (EHF) were investigated to identify the occurrence of heatwaves (HWs). The study considered HWs of different durations (1-, 5-, and 10-days) in relation to intensity, frequency, duration, and their first occurrence parameters. Finally, the influences of three global climate drivers, namely – the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were investigated with associated heatwave attributes for extended Austral summers. In this study, an increasing trend in both hot days and nights was observed for most of the selected stations within the study area. The increase was more pronounced for the last decade (2011–2021) of the investigated time period. The number, duration and frequency of the heatwaves increased over time considering the EHF criterion, whereas no particular trend was detected in cases of TX90 and TN90. It was also evident that the first occurrence of all the HWs shifted towards the onset of the extended summer while considering the EHF criterion of HWs. The correlations between heatwave attributes and climate drivers depicted that heatwave over NSW was positively influenced by both the IOD and ENSO and negatively correlated with SAM. The findings of this study will be useful in formulating strategies for managing the impacts of extreme temperature events such as bushfires, floods, droughts to the most at-risk regions within NSW.

Predictability of the 2020 Strong Vortex in the Antarctic Stratosphere and the Role of Ozone

AbstractThe Antarctic vortex of October–December 2020 was the strongest on record in the satellite era for the season in the mid‐ to lower stratosphere. However, it was poorly predicted by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's operational seasonal climate forecast system of that time, ACCESS‐S1, even at a short lead time of a month. Using the current operational forecast system, ACCESS‐S2, we have, therefore, tried to find a primary cause of the limited predictability of this event and conducted forecast sensitivity experiments to understand the potential role of ozone in the event and its associated anomalies of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and rainfall over south–eastern Australia and western Patagonia. Here, we show that the 2020 strong vortex event did not follow the canonical dynamical evolution seen in previous strong vortex events in spring but suddenly appeared as a result of the record‐low upward propagating wave activity in September 2020. The ACCESS‐S2 forecasts significantly underestimated the negative wave forcing in September even at zero lead time, irrespective of the ozone configuration, therefore falling short in predicting the record strength of the polar vortex in late spring 2020. Nevertheless, ACCESS‐S2 with prescribed realistic ozone that had large anomalies in the Antarctic stratosphere significantly better predicted the strong vortex and the subsequent positive SAM and related rainfall anomalies over south–eastern Australia and western Patagonia in the austral summer of 2020–21. This highlights the potentially important role of ozone variations for seasonal climate forecasting as a source of long‐lead predictability.

Unravelling the Influence of ENSO and SAM Patterns on Skate Growth: The Case of the Shorttail Yellownose Skate in Patagonia, Argentina

ABSTRACTIn recent decades, the growth, physiology and distribution of many elasmobranch species have been altered as a result of environmental changes that affect prey abundance, availability and composition. Consequently, variations in nutrient input during climate events could manifest in the growth of their hard tissues. This study focuses on assessing the impact of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the growth of Shorttail Yellownose skate (Zearaja brevicaudata) in Patagonia, Argentina. To achieve this, vertebrae from 115 Z. brevicaudata specimens were analysed, and growth rings were dated and measured. By using cubic splines with varying flexibility, we constructed three standard chronologies. Generalized additive models (GAMs), the chronology with the best the R‐bar () and expressed population signal (EPS) were employed and values obtained from them linked to annual time series data of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and SAM, considering lags in the biological response. Surprisingly, no significant association was found with the MEI time series. However, a noteworthy positive association emerged between the chronology and the SAM time series lagged by 1 year, suggesting that SAM‐related climatic conditions could delay their transfer into the Patagonian marine ecosystem, subsequently impacting the growth of this ectothermic predator.

Contrasting influence of the 1997 and 2015 El Niño on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Role of the Southern Hemisphere

This study provides comprehensive analysis on the contrasting effects caused by the 1997 and 2015 historical El Niño events linked with the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall. The presence of strong southeast-northwest oriented cold Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies during 1997, that spatially extended from southwest Pacific to Southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) in comparison to the 2015 event is the robust feature. Evidently, these anomalies are closely related to interaction between cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation over South Pacific Convergence Zone (south Australia). During 2015, the conjunction of Modoki II and classical El Niño triggered an asymmetrical equatorial circulation throughout the Indo-western Pacific (IWP) and thereby stimulated the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) through troposphere and stratospheric pathway mechanism. In addition, in 2015, SAM impacted the Indian Ocean, which intern affected ISM rainfall. Positive SAM associated with westward shift of anticyclone over south of Australia alters the circulation by inducing westerly winds over the South Indian Ocean, thereby suppressing Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and inducing drought conditions over India during 2015. Moreover, the AUS index, an indicator for IOD strength in boreal summer, is a bridging factor prevalent over mid-latitude regions in the southern hemisphere. Results from this study indicate the complex interaction of southern hemisphere atmospheric flow and its role in modulating the Indian Ocean region thereby ISM rainfall. A better understanding of these underlying mechanism can significantly enhance the predictive skills and projections of monsoon variability and extremes.

Global assessment of interannual variability in coastal urban areas and ecosystems

Abstract Both seasonal and extreme climate conditions are influenced by long-term natural internal variability. However, in general, long-term hazard variation has not been incorporated into coastal risk assessments. There are coastal regions of high interest, such as urban areas, where a large number of people are exposed to hydrometeorological hazards, and ecosystems, which provide protection, where long-term natural variability should be considered a design factor. In this study, we systematized climate analysis to identify high-interest regions where hazard long-term variability should be considered in risk assessment, disaster reduction, and future climate change adaptation and protection designs. To achieve this goal, we examined the effect of the leading modes of climate variability (Arctic Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation) on the variation in the recurrence of extreme coastal hazard events, including as a first step sea surface temperature, winds, and waves. Neglecting long-term variability could potentially lead to the underperformance of solutions, or even irreversible damage that compromises the conditions of ecosystems for which nature-based solutions are designed.

Filling in Munk’s ‘orbital gap’ in climate and sea-level variability

Abstract This study explores the linkage between lunar precessions, solar activity, plus their interactions, and the interannual variability of climate indices and Australian sea level. The focus is on variability longer than the lunar nodal cycle (18.6 years), but shorter than millennia, also known as orbital gap. Climate indices include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Southern Oscillation Index, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the Southern Annular Mode. Long-term (> 100 years) sea-level data were examined at Fremantle (Western Australia) and Fort Denison (Sydney, Eastern Australia). Periodicities associated with gravitational and radiational forces were fitted to 3-yr- and 5-yr-filtered records of each climate index and of sea-level records. All fits, 10 for climate indices and 12 for sea level, explained the variance of all filtered records remarkably well (>60%). Findings suggest that lunar precessions and their interactions with solar activity may be connected to interannual variations in oceanic mixing. Mixing leads to climate variability through transport of heat, mass and solutes in the atmosphere and ocean, and ultimately relates to interannual sea-level variability. This study represents the possibility of astronomic effects on Earth’s environmental variables, beyond the internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere system.

Supraglacial lake evolution and its drivers in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

Abstract Supraglacial lakes on Antarctic ice shelves can have far-reaching implications for ice-sheet stability, highlighting the need to understand their dynamics, controls and role in the ice-sheet mass budget. We combine a detailed satellite-based record of seasonal lake evolution in Dronning Maud Land with a high-resolution simulation from the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional to identify drivers of lake variability between 2014 and 2021. Correlations between summer lake extents and climate parameters reveal complex relationships that vary both in space and time. Shortwave radiation contributes positively to the energy budget during summer melt seasons, but summers with enhanced longwave radiation are more prone to surface melting and ponding, which is further enhanced by advected heat from summer precipitation. In contrast, previous winter precipitation has a negative effect on summer lake extents, presumably by increasing albedo and pore space, delaying the accumulation of meltwater. Downslope katabatic or föhn winds promote ponding around the grounding zones of some ice shelves. At a larger scale, we find that summers during periods of negative southern annular mode are associated with increased ponding in Dronning Maud Land. The high variability in seasonal lake extents indicates that these ice shelves are highly sensitive to future warming or intensified extreme events.

Exploring sea-ice transport dynamics at the eastern gate of the Ross Sea

As Antarctic sea-ice extent continues to reach record lows, significant efforts have been directed towards understanding the underlying processes and their regional differences within the Southern Ocean. Here, we explore the dynamics of zonal sea-ice transport at the eastern gate of the Ross Sea from 1988 to 2023 using GIOMAS-model and ERA5-reanalysis data. Our analysis reveals a modest overall increase in eastward sea-ice transport (3.721 ± 0.672 km³/month per decade), with diverging trends in the coastal and open ocean zones. Driven by easterly winds and the Antarctic Slope Current, the predominant westward transport in the coastal region experienced a significant rise during the early 2000s, followed by a steep decline post-2011. Conversely, driven by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the strong open-ocean transport exhibited a moderate increase towards the Amundsen Sea until the late 1990s, which was interrupted by a reversal in 2007. The variability of the zonal sea-ice transport and its underlying conditions (sea-ice concentration, thickness, and zonal drift) revealed considerable shifts throughout the different decades and on seasonal scales. During austral winter, approximately half of the zonal sea-ice transport variability seems to be driven by large-scale teleconnections, including the Southern Annular Mode, Southern Oscillation Index, Amundsen Sea Low and the Zonal Wave 3 with considerable impacts on the wind stress field. Whereas during summer, the Southern Oscillation Index emerges as the dominant driver, exhibiting a significant positive correlation (r=0.55, p<0.001) that reflects ENSO’s influence, while other teleconnections play minimal roles. Our study highlights the complex nature of sea-ice transport through the eastern gate of the Ross Sea towards the Amundsen Seas, where contrasting climatic conditions are known to occur.

Late Holocene record of subantarctic glacier variability in Table Fjord, Cook Ice Cap, Kerguelen Islands

The subantarctic islands between 40 and 60°S are circum-polar landmasses influenced by the southern westerly wind (SWW) belt whose latitudinal shifts are driven by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) over decadal timescales. In the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, the Kerguelen Islands (49°S) form a volcanic archipelago that is home to the Cook Ice Cap (CIC). Atmospheric drying favored by a poleward migration of the SWW induced a dramatic shrinkage of the CIC over the past 50 years. Current knowledge of how this decline compares with the natural variability of the CIC is unclear and based exclusively on geomorphological records with limited temporal resolution. This paper introduces a 4 kyr marine record built from a transect of giant piston cores collected in Table Fjord, southwestern margin of the CIC. Interpretation of sedimentary and geochemical proxies is supported by statistical correlations with the CIC surface mass balance on the instrumental timescale, and by the age overlapping with dated landforms and deposits over the last two millennia. High-resolution geochronological data (137Cs and 210Pb inventories along with 63 AMS 14C dates) corrected from a local marine reservoir age allowed reconstructing glacier variability at a multidecadal resolution. The CIC was paced by periods of glacial advances at 3.4–2.8, 2.3–1.7, and 1.35–1.15 ka cal BP, followed by a two-stage ‘Little Ice Age’ maximum between 0.7 ka cal BP and the early 20th century. Comparison with paleoenvironmental records from the subantarctic fringe zone and the southern mid-latitudes suggests SWW-driven precipitation (wetter and windier conditions) were the main driver of centennial-scale glacier variability in the Kerguelen Islands, notably after 2.3 ka cal BP. The Kerguelen record thereby supports a zonally-synchronous, hemispheric-wide SWW pattern pacing Southern Ocean climatic variability in a SAM-like mode. The Little Ice Age maximum ice extent results from the coincidence of cold conditions caused by an equatorward shift of the Polar Front, an oceanic front bordering the Kerguelen archipelago resulting in lower sea surface temperatures, together with wetter conditions favored by strengthened SWW.

Spatial and temporal variability of the freezing level in Patagonia's atmosphere

Abstract. The height of the 0 °C isotherm (H0), which commonly signals the freezing level, denotes the lowest altitude within the atmosphere where the air temperature reaches 0 °C. This can be used as an indicator of the transition between rain and snow, making it useful for monitoring and visualizing the height of freezing temperatures in the atmosphere. We study the spatial and temporal variability of H0 across Patagonia (41–54° S) for the 1959–2021 period using reanalysis data from ERA5. Our results indicate that the average isotherm in Patagonia is 1691 m above sea level (m a.s.l.). The spatial distribution of the annual mean field highlights the contrast in the region, with an average maximum of 2658 m a.s.l. in the north and minimum of 913 m a.s.l. in the south. Regarding seasonal variability in the region, H0 ranges from 575 m a.s.l. (winter) to 3346 m a.s.l. (summer). Further, the significant trends calculated over the period show positive values in the whole area. This indicates an upward annual trend in the H0, between 8.8 and 36.5 m per decade from 1959–2021, with the higher value observed in northwestern Patagonia. These upward trends are stronger during summer (8–61 m per decade). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was performed on H0 anomalies. The first EOF mode of H0 variability accounts for 84 % of the total variance, depicting a monopole structure centred in the northwestern area. This mode exhibits a strong and significant correlation with the spatial average H0 anomaly field (r=0.85), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM; r= 0.58), temperature at 850 hPa in the Drake Passage (r=0.56), and sea surface temperature off the western coast of Patagonia (r=0.66), underscoring the significant role of these factors in influencing the vertical temperature profile within the region. The spatial distribution of the second (8 %) and third (4.4 %) EOF modes depicts a dipole pattern, offering additional insights into the processes influencing the 0 °C isotherm, especially on the western slope of Patagonia.

Near‐surface wind variability in Prydz Bay and Amery Ice Shelf region, East Antarctica: A four‐decade SOM analysis

AbstractNear‐surface wind fields in the Prydz Bay and Amery Ice Shelf region of East Antarctica play a crucial role in the formation and variability of Antarctic Bottom Water, a cold, dense water mass that sinks and spreads across the deep ocean basins influencing ocean circulation and modulating earth's climate system. This study investigates the primary modes of variability of these wind fields using the self‐organizing map (SOM) method and data from the latest version of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ReAnalyses (ERA5), spanning four decades from 1979 to 2020. While the wind field climatology, characterized by small seasonal variation, is dominated by katabatic and large‐scale forcing, the spatial patterns of the primary variability modes are mainly influenced by synoptic system activities. The overall trend in annual wind speed anomalies is positive across the study region, with the exception of the southwestern part and central Prydz Bay. However, significant trends are observed in only two out of nine SOM nodes (nodes 4 and 9), which collectively explain less than 30% of the averaged trends over the region. The interannual variability in the seasonal occurrences of certain nodes is linked to several well‐known climate modes, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode and Zonal Wavenumber 3. Our results provide a reference for forecasting the occurrence frequency of specific patterns, which could help mitigate the impact of extreme wind events through improved forecasting.

Evidence for large-scale climate forcing of dense shelf water variability in the Ross Sea

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), which supplies the lower limb of the thermohaline circulation, originates from dense shelf water (DSW) forming in Antarctic polynyas. Here, combining a long mooring record of DSW measurements with numerical simulations and satellite data, we show that significant correlation exists between interannual variability of DSW production in the Ross Sea polynyas, where DSW contributes between 20–40% of the global AABW production, and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The correlation is largest when the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) is weakened and shifted east of the Ross Sea. During positive SAM phases, enhanced offshore winds and lower air temperatures over the western Ross Sea increase sea ice production and promote DSW formation, with the opposite response during negative SAM phases. These processes ultimately modulate AABW thickness in the open ocean. A projected positive shift of the SAM and eastward displacement of the ASL thus has implications for the future of DSW and AABW formation.

Development of the signal‐to‐noise paradox in subseasonal forecasting models: When? Where? Why?

AbstractSubseasonal forecast models are shown to suffer from the same inconsistency in the signal‐to‐noise ratio evident in climate models. Namely, predictable signals in these models are too weak, yet there is a relatively high level of agreement with observed variability of the atmospheric circulation. The net effect is subseasonal forecast models show higher correlation with observed variability than with their own simulations; that is, the signal‐to‐noise paradox. Also, similar to climate models, this paradox is particularly evident in the North Atlantic sector. The paradox is not evident in week 1 or week 2 forecasts, and hence is limited to subseasonal time‐scales. The paradox appears to be related to an overly fast decay of northern annular mode regimes. Three possible causes of this overly fast decay and for the paradox in the Northern Hemisphere are identified: a too‐fast decay of polar stratospheric signals, overly weak downward coupling from the stratosphere to the surface in some models, and overly weak transient synoptic eddy feedbacks. Though the paradox is clearly evident in the North Atlantic, it is relatively muted in the Southern Hemisphere: southern annular mode regimes persist realistically, the stratospheric signal is well maintained, and eddy feedback is, if anything, too strong and zonal.