Evolution Of Antarctic Ice Sheet Research Articles

Miocene ice sheet dynamics and sediment deposition in the central Ross Sea, Antarctica

Drill cores from the Antarctic continental shelf are essential for directly constraining changes in past Antarctic Ice Sheet extent. Here, we provide a sedimentary facies analysis of drill cores from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1521 in the Ross Sea, which reveals a unique, detailed snapshot of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution between ca. 18 Ma and 13 Ma. We identify distinct depositional packages, each of which contains facies successions that are reflective of past baseline shifts in the presence or absence of marine-terminating ice sheets on the outermost Ross Sea continental shelf. The oldest depositional package (>18 Ma) contains massive diamictites stacked through aggradation and deposited in a deep, actively subsiding basin that restricted marine ice sheet expansion on the outer continental shelf. A slowdown in tectonic subsidence after 17.8 Ma led to the deposition of progradational massive diamictites with thin mudstone beds/laminae, as several large marine-based ice sheet advances expanded onto the mid- to outer continental shelf between 17.8 Ma and 17.4 Ma. Between 17.2 Ma and 15.95 Ma, packages of interbedded diamictite and diatom-rich mudstone were deposited during a phase of highly variable Antarctic Ice Sheet extent and volume. This included periods of Antarctic Ice Sheet advance near the outer shelf during the early Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO)—despite this being a well-known period of peak global warmth between ca. 17.0 Ma and 14.6 Ma. Conversely, there were periods of peak warmth within the MCO during which diatom-rich mudstones with little to no ice-rafted debris were deposited, which indicates that the Antarctic Ice Sheet was greatly reduced in extent and had retreated to a smaller terrestrial-terminating ice sheet, most notably between 16.3 Ma and 15.95 Ma. Post-14.2 Ma, diamictites and diatomites contain unambiguous evidence of subglacial shearing in the core and provide the first direct, well-dated evidence of highly erosive marine ice sheets on the outermost continental shelf during the onset of the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT; 14.2−13.6 Ma). Although global climate forcings and feedbacks influenced Antarctic Ice Sheet advances and retreats during the MCO and MMCT, we propose that this response was nonlinear and heavily influenced by regional feedbacks related to the shoaling of the continental shelf due to reduced subsidence, sediment infilling, and local sea-level changes that directly influenced oceanic influences on melting at the Antarctic Ice Sheet margin. Although intervals of diatom-rich muds and diatomite indicating open-marine interglacial conditions still occurred during (and following) the MMCT, repeated advances of marine-based ice sheets since that time have resulted in widespread erosion and overdeepening in the inner Ross Sea, which has greatly enhanced sensitivity to marine ice sheet instability since 14.2 Ma.

Ice sheet-free West Antarctica during peak early Oligocene glaciation.

One of Earth's most fundamental climate shifts, the greenhouse-icehouse transition 34 million years ago, initiated Antarctic ice sheet buildup, influencing global climate until today. However, the extent of the ice sheet during the Early Oligocene Glacial Maximum (~33.7 to 33.2 million years ago) that immediately followed this transition-a critical knowledge gap for assessing feedbacks between permanently glaciated areas and early Cenozoic global climate reorganization-is uncertain. In this work, we present shallow-marine drilling data constraining earliest Oligocene environmental conditions on West Antarctica's Pacific margin-a key region for understanding Antarctic ice sheet evolution. These data indicate a cool-temperate environment with mild ocean and air temperatures that prevented West Antarctic Ice Sheet formation. Climate-ice sheet modeling corroborates a highly asymmetric Antarctic ice sheet, thereby revealing its differential regional response to past and future climatic change.

Simulation of a fully coupled 3D glacial isostatic adjustment – ice sheet model for the Antarctic ice sheet over a glacial cycle

Abstract. Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) has a stabilizing effect on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet by reducing the grounding line migration following ice melt. The timescale and strength of this feedback depends on the spatially varying viscosity of the Earth's mantle. Most studies assume a relatively long and laterally homogenous response time of the bedrock. However, the mantle viscosity is spatially variable, with a high mantle viscosity beneath East Antarctica and a low mantle viscosity beneath West Antarctica. For this study, we have developed a new method to couple a 3D GIA model and an ice sheet model to study the interaction between the solid Earth and the Antarctic ice sheet during the last glacial cycle. With this method, the ice sheet model and GIA model exchange ice thickness and bedrock elevation during a fully coupled transient experiment. The feedback effect is taken into account with a high temporal resolution, where the coupling time steps between the ice sheet and GIA model are 5000 years over the glaciation phase and vary between 500 and 1000 years over the deglaciation phase of the last glacial cycle. During each coupling time step, the bedrock elevation is adjusted at every ice sheet model time step, and the deformation is computed for a linearly changing ice load. We applied the method using the ice sheet model ANICE and a 3D GIA finite element model. We used results from a regional seismic model for Antarctica embedded in the global seismic model SMEAN2 to determine the patterns in the mantle viscosity. The results of simulations over the last glacial cycle show that differences in mantle viscosity of an order of magnitude can lead to differences in the grounding line position up to 700 km and to differences in ice thickness of the order of 2 km for the present day near the Ross Embayment. These results underline and quantify the importance of including local GIA feedback effects in ice sheet models when simulating the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle.

A newly discovered subglacial lake in East Antarctica likely hosts a valuable sedimentary record of ice and climate change

The Princess Elizabeth Land sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is a significant reservoir of grounded ice and is adjacent to regions that experienced great change during Quaternary glacial cycles and Pliocene warm episodes. The existence of an extensive subglacial water system in Princess Elizabeth Land (to date only inferred from satellite imagery) bears the potential to significantly impact the thermal and kinematic conditions of the overlying ice sheet. We confirm the existence of a major subglacial lake, herein referred to as Lake Snow Eagle (LSE), for the first time using recently acquired aerogeophysical data. We systematically investigated LSE’s geological characteristics and bathymetry from two-dimensional geophysical inversion models. The inversion results suggest that LSE is located along a compressional geologic boundary, which provides reference for future characterization of the geologic and tectonic context of this region. We estimate LSE to be ~42 km in length and 370 km2 in area, making it one of the largest subglacial lakes in Antarctica. Additionally, the airborne ice-penetrating radar observations and geophysical inversions reveal a layer of unconsolidated water-saturated sediment around and at the bottom of LSE, which—given the ultralow rates of sedimentation expected in such environments—may archive valuable records of paleoenvironmental changes and the early history of East Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution in Princess Elizabeth Land.

Modelling evidence for late Eocene Antarctic glaciations

It is generally believed that a large scale Antarctic ice sheet formed at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (34.44-33.65 Ma). However, oxygen isotope excursions during the late Eocene (38-34 Ma) and geomorphic evidence of glacial erosion suggest that there were ephemeral continental scale glaciations before the Oi-1 event. Here, we investigate the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over a multi-million year timescale during the late Eocene up to the early Oligocene with the most recent estimates of carbon dioxide evolution over this time period and different bedrock elevation reconstructions. A novel ice sheet-climate modelling approach is applied where the Antarctic ice sheet model VUB-AISMPALEO is coupled to the emulated climate from HadSM3 using the coupler CLISEMv1.0. Our modelling results show that short-lived continental scale Antarctic glaciation might have occurred during the late Eocene when austral summer insolation reached a minimum in a narrow range of carbon dioxide concentrations. The Antarctic ice sheet first reached the coast in Prydz Bay and later in the Weddell Sea region, supporting the glaciomarine sediments dated prior to the EOT.

Deep water inflow slowed offshore expansion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition

The stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is threatened by the incursion of warm Circumpolar Deepwater which flows southwards via cross-shelf troughs towards the coast there melting ice shelves. However, the onset of this oceanic forcing on the development and evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains poorly understood. Here, we use single- and multichannel seismic reflection profiles to investigate the architecture of a sediment body on the shelf of the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We estimate the formation age of this sediment body to be around the Eocene-Oligocene Transition and find that it possesses the geometry and depositional pattern of a plastered sediment drift. We suggest this indicates a southward inflow of deep water which probably supplied heat and, thus, prevented West Antarctic Ice Sheet advance beyond the coast at this time. We conclude that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has likely experienced a strong oceanic influence on its dynamics since its initial formation.

A large West Antarctic Ice Sheet explains early Neogene sea-level amplitude.

Early to Middle Miocene sea-level oscillations of approximately 40-60 m estimated from far-field records1-3 are interpreted to reflect the loss of virtually all East Antarctic ice during peak warmth2. This contrasts with ice-sheet model experiments suggesting most terrestrial ice in East Antarctica was retained even during the warmest intervals of the Middle Miocene4,5. Data and model outputs can be reconciled if a large West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) existed and expanded across most of the outer continental shelf during the Early Miocene, accounting for maximum ice-sheet volumes. Here we provide the earliest geological evidence proving large WAIS expansions occurred during the Early Miocene (~17.72-17.40 Ma). Geochemical and petrographic data show glacimarine sediments recovered at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1521 in the central Ross Sea derive from West Antarctica, requiring the presence of a WAIS covering most of the Ross Sea continental shelf. Seismic, lithological and palynological data reveal the intermittent proximity of grounded ice to Site U1521. The erosion rate calculated from this sediment package greatly exceeds the long-term mean, implying rapid erosion of West Antarctica. This interval therefore captures a key step in the genesis of a marine-based WAIS and a tipping point in Antarctic ice-sheet evolution.

CO2 and tectonic controls on Antarctic climate and ice-sheet evolution in the mid-Miocene

Antarctic ice sheet and climate evolution during the mid-Miocene has direct relevance for understanding ice sheet (in)stability and the long-term response to elevated atmospheric CO2 in the future. Geologic records reconstruct major fluctuations in the volume and extent of marine and terrestrial ice during the mid-Miocene, revealing a dynamic Antarctic ice-sheet response to past climatic variations. We use an ensemble of climate – ice sheet – vegetation model simulations spanning a range of CO2 concentrations, Transantarctic Mountain uplift scenarios, and glacial/interglacial climatic conditions to identify climate and ice-sheet conditions consistent with Antarctic mid-Miocene terrestrial and marine geological records. We explore climatic variability at both continental and regional scales, focusing specifically on Victoria Land and Wilkes Land Basin regions using a high-resolution nested climate model over these domains. We find that peak warmth during the Miocene Climate Optimum is characterized by a thick terrestrial ice sheet receded from the coastline under high CO2 concentrations. During the Middle Miocene Climate Transition, CO2 episodically dropped below a threshold value for marine-based ice expansion. Comparison of model results with geologic data support ongoing Transantarctic Mountain uplift throughout the mid-Miocene. Modeled ice sheet dynamics over the Wilkes Land Basin were highly sensitive to CO2 concentrations. This work provides a continental-wide context for localized geologic paleoclimate and vegetation records, integrating multiple datasets to reconstruct snapshots of ice sheet and climatic conditions during a pivotal period in Earth's history.

The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century

Abstract. The Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to global sea level rise over the 21st century is of primary societal importance and remains largely uncertain as of yet. In particular, in the recent literature, the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet by 2100 can be negative (sea level fall) by a few centimetres or positive (sea level rise), with some estimates above 1 m. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (ISMIP6) aimed at reducing the uncertainties in the fate of the ice sheets in the future by gathering various ice sheet models in a common framework. Here, we present the GRISLI-LSCE (Grenoble Ice Sheet and Land Ice model of the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica. We show that our model is strongly sensitive to the climate forcing used, with a contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level rise by 2100 that ranges from −50 to +150 mm sea level equivalent (SLE). Future oceanic warming leads to a decrease in thickness of the ice shelves, resulting in grounding-line retreat, while increased surface mass balance partially mitigates or even overcompensates the dynamic ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise. Most of the ice sheet changes over the next century are dampened under low-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. Uncertainties related to sub-ice-shelf melt rates induce large differences in simulated grounding-line retreat, confirming the importance of this process and its representation in ice sheet models for projections of the Antarctic ice sheet's evolution.

Beryllium isotopes in sediments from Lake Maruwan Oike and Lake Skallen, East Antarctica, reveal substantial glacial discharge during the late Holocene

Constraining East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) evolution during the Holocene is important for exploring the forcing mechanisms behind ice sheet retreat and to constrain numerical ice sheet models that aid predictions of future sea-level rise. Beryllium (Be) isotope analysis of bedrock and marine sediments have offered unparalleled insight into Antarctic ice sheet history since the Pliocene, but much of EAIS remains poorly studied. Here, we report the reactive (authigenic) 10Be abundance, 9Be abundance and 10Be/9Be ratios of Antarctic lake sediments, for the first time, from Lake Maruwan Oike and Lake Skallen along Soya Coast of Lützow-Holm Bay, East Antarctica. Beryllium isotope records reveal melting of local glaciers associated with higher subglacial erosion between ∼4.1 and ∼3.6 ka BP. Comparison to marine records from the Antarctic continental shelf suggests this was part of a circum-Antarctic phenomena that led to widespread glacial discharge from other sectors of the East and West Antarctic Ice Sheet. We suggest the incursion of relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) into Lützow-Holm Bay during the Late Holocene led to frontal and basal melting of ice sheets along the Soya Coast, supporting the notion of Antarctic ice sheet instabilities as a contributor to global sea-level rise since the Mid Holocene.

ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model

Abstract. The future retreat rate for marine-based regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in sea-level projections. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) aims to improve projections and quantify uncertainties by running an ensemble of ice sheet models with atmosphere and ocean forcing derived from global climate models. Here, the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is used to run ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. Using multiple combinations of sub-ice-shelf melt parameterizations and calibrations, CISM is spun up to steady state over many millennia. During the spin-up, basal friction parameters and basin-scale thermal forcing corrections are adjusted to optimize agreement with the observed ice thickness. The model is then run forward for 550 years, from 1950–2500, applying ocean thermal forcing anomalies from six climate models. In all simulations, the ocean forcing triggers long-term retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, especially in the Filchner–Ronne and Ross sectors. Mass loss accelerates late in the 21st century and then rises steadily for several centuries without leveling off. The resulting ocean-forced sea-level rise at year 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm, depending on the melt scheme and ocean forcing. Further experiments show relatively high sensitivity to the basal friction law, moderate sensitivity to grid resolution and the prescribed collapse of small ice shelves, and low sensitivity to the stress-balance approximation. The Amundsen sector exhibits threshold behavior, with modest retreat under many parameter settings but complete collapse under some combinations of low basal friction and high thermal forcing anomalies. Large uncertainties remain, as a result of parameterized sub-shelf melt rates, simplified treatments of calving and basal friction, and the lack of ice–ocean coupling.

Magnetostratigraphic Chronology of a Cenozoic Sequence From DSDP Site 274, Ross Sea, Antarctica

New paleomagnetic results from the late Eocene-Middle Miocene samples from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 274, cored during Leg 28 on the continental rise off Victoria Land, Ross Sea, provide a chronostratigraphic framework for an existing paleoclimate archive during a key period of Antarctic climate and ice sheet evolution. Based on this new age model, the cored late Eocene-Middle Miocene sequence covers an interval of almost 20 Myr (from ∼35 to ∼15 Ma). Biostratigraphic constraints allow a number of possible correlations with the Geomagnetic Polarity Time Scale. Regardless of correlation, average interval sediment accumulation rates above 260 mbsf are ∼6 cm/kyr with the record punctuated by a number of unconformities. Below 260 mbsf (across the Eocene/Oligocene boundary) interval, sedimentation accumulation rates are closer to ∼1 cm/kyr. A major unconformity identified at ∼180 mbsf represents at least 9 Myr accounting for the late Oligocene and Early Miocene and represent non-deposition and/or erosion due to intensification of Antarctic Circumpolar Current activity. Significant fluctuations in grain size and magnetic properties observed above the unconformity at 180 mbsf, in the Early Miocene portion of this sedimentary record, reflect cyclical behavior in glacial advance and retreat from the continent. Similar glacial cyclicity has already been identified in other Miocene sequences recovered in drill cores from the Antarctic margin.

ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

The Role of Lithospheric Flexure in the Landscape Evolution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin and Transantarctic Mountains, East Antarctica

AbstractReconstructions of the bedrock topography of Antarctica since the Eocene‐Oligocene Boundary (approximately 34 Ma) provide important constraints for modeling Antarctic ice sheet evolution. This is particularly important in regions where the bedrock lies below sea level, since in these sectors the overlying ice sheet is thought to be most susceptible to past and future change. Here we use 3‐D flexural modeling to reconstruct the evolution of the topography of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) and Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) in East Antarctica. We estimate the spatial distribution of glacial erosion beneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, and restore this material to the topography, which is also adjusted for associated flexural isostatic responses. We independently constrain our post‐34 Ma erosion estimates using offshore sediment stratigraphy interpretations. Our reconstructions provide a better‐defined topographic boundary condition for modeling early East Antarctic Ice Sheet history. We show that the majority of glacial erosion and landscape evolution occurred prior to 14 Ma, which we interpret to reflect more dynamic and erosive early ice sheet behavior. In addition, we use closely spaced 2‐D flexural models to test previously proposed hypotheses for a flexural origin of the TAM and WSB. The pre‐34 Ma topography shows lateral variations along the length of the TAM and WSB that cannot be explained by uniform flexure along the front of the TAM. We show that some of these variations may be explained by additional flexural uplift along the south‐western flank of the WSB and the Rennick Graben in northern Victoria Land.

Antarctic ice-sheet sensitivity to obliquity forcing enhanced through ocean connections

Deep sea geological records indicate that Antarctic ice-sheet growth and decay is strongly influenced by the Earth’s astronomical variations (known as Milankovitch cycles), and that the frequency of the glacial–interglacial cycles changes through time. Here we examine the emergence of a strong obliquity (axial tilt) control on Antarctic ice-sheet evolution during the Miocene by correlating the Antarctic margin geological records from 34 to 5 million years ago with a measure of obliquity sensitivity that compares the variance in deep sea sediment core oxygen-isotope data at obliquity timescales with variance of the calculated obliquity forcing. Our analysis reveals distinct phases of ice-sheet evolution and suggests the sensitivity to obliquity forcing increases when ice-sheet margins extend into marine environments. We propose that this occurs because obliquity-driven changes in the meridional temperature gradient affect the position and strength of the circum-Antarctic easterly flow and enhance (or reduce) ocean heat transport across the Antarctic continental margin. The influence of obliquity-driven changes in ocean dynamics is amplified when marine ice sheets are extensive, and sea ice is limited. Our reconstruction of the Antarctic ice-sheet history suggests that if sea-ice cover decreases in the coming decades, ocean-driven melting at the ice-sheet margin will be amplified. The sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheet to obliquity increases when ice-sheet margins are exposed to the ocean, suggests an analysis of sediment core oxygen isotope records.

Antarctic ice sheet palaeo-thinning rates from vertical transects of cosmogenic exposure ages

Constraining Antarctic ice sheet evolution provides a way to validate numerical ice sheet models that aid predictions of sea-level rise. In this paper we collate cosmogenic exposure ages from exposed nunataks in Antarctica that have been used, or have the potential to be used, to constrain rates of thinning of the Antarctic Ice Sheets since the Last Glacial Maximum. We undertake quality control of the data and adopt a Bayesian approach to outlier detection. Past thinning rates are modelled by Monte Carlo linear regression analysis. We present thinning rates from 23 sites across Antarctica. The resulting data set is the first Antarctic-wide collation of past ice sheet thinning rates and provides an empirical starting point for future model-data comparisons. Palaeo-thinning rates are spatially variable with high rates appearing to correlate to areas of contemporary rapid changes. On centennial timescales past thinning rates are comparable to modern day observations implying that modern day thinning has the potential to persist for centuries in numerous parts of Antarctica. The onset of abrupt thinning from all sites post-dates Meltwater Pulse 1A suggesting that its source region(s) are distal to areas where exposure age constraints on ice surface geometry exist.

Local insolation changes enhance Antarctic interglacials: Insights from an 800,000-year ice sheet simulation with transient climate forcing

The Antarctic ice sheet – storing ∼27 million cubic kilometres of ice – has the potential to contribute greatly to future sea level rise; yet its past evolution and sensitivity to long-term climatic drivers remain poorly understood and constrained. In particular, a long-standing debate questions whether Antarctic climate and ice volume respond mostly to changes in global sea level and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations or to local insolation changes. So far, long-term Antarctic simulations have used proxy-based parameterizations of climatic drivers, presuming that external forcings are synchronous and spatially uniform. Here for the first time we use a transient, three-dimensional climate simulation over the last eight glacial cycles to drive an Antarctic ice sheet model. We show that the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet was mostly driven by CO2 and sea level forcing with a period of about 100,000 yr, synchronizing both hemispheres. However, on precessional time scales, local insolation forcing drives additional mass loss during periods of high sea level and CO2, enhancing the Antarctic interglacial and putting northern and southern ice sheet variability temporarily out of phase. In our simulations, partial collapses of the West Antarctic ice sheet during warm interglacials are only simulated with unrealistically large Southern Ocean subsurface warming exceeding ∼4 °C. Overall, our results further elucidate the complex interplay of global and local forcings in driving Late Quaternary Antarctic ice sheet evolution, and the unique and overlooked role of precession therein.

Seismic and geomorphic records of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution in the Ross Sea and controlling factors in its behaviour

Abstract A robust collection of seismic and geomorphic data is used to examine the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet within the Ross Sea Embayment. We use geomorphic data to reconstruct Last Glacial Maximum and post-Last Glacial Maximum ice sheet drainage and demonstrate retreat behaviours for the East Antarctic and West Antarctic sectors of the ice sheet. Using this framework, we then use seismic data and chronostratigraphic information from drill cores to reconstruct the long-term evolution of the ice sheet. Early ice sheet evolution during the Late Oligocene was characterized by isolated ice caps on bathymetric highs, followed by an interval of sediment infilling of rift basins and the development of more subdued relief in the eastern Ross Sea than in the western Ross Sea. Both ice sheets have experienced multiple episodes of expansion across the continental shelf since the Middle Miocene, with the frequency increasing during the Plio-Pleistocene. We conclude that seafloor bathymetry has been the principal control on ice sheet palaeodrainage and retreat behaviour since at least the middle Miocene, demonstrated by broad West Antarctic ice streams loosely guided by south to north cross-shelf troughs, whereas East Antarctic ice streams were funnelled through troughs that merge and converge around banks.

The uppermost mantle seismic velocity and viscosity structure of central West Antarctica

Accurately monitoring and predicting the evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet via secular changes in the Earth's gravity field requires knowledge of the underlying upper mantle viscosity structure. Published seismic models show the West Antarctic lithosphere to be ∼70–100 km thick and underlain by a low velocity zone extending to at least ∼200 km. Mantle viscosity is dependent on factors including temperature, grain size, the hydrogen content of olivine, the presence of partial melt and applied stress. As seismic wave propagation is particularly sensitive to thermal variations, seismic velocity provides a means of gauging mantle temperature. In 2012, a magnitude 5.6 intraplate earthquake in Marie Byrd Land was recorded on an array of POLENET-ANET seismometers deployed across West Antarctica. We modelled the waveforms recorded by six of the seismic stations in order to determine realistic estimates of temperature and lithology for the lithospheric mantle beneath Marie Byrd Land and the central West Antarctic Rift System. Published mantle xenolith and magnetotelluric data provided constraints on grain size and hydrogen content, respectively, for viscosity modelling. Considering tectonically-plausible stresses, we estimate that the viscosity of the lithospheric mantle beneath Marie Byrd Land and the central West Antarctic Rift System ranges from ∼1020–1022 Pa s. To extend our analysis to the sublithospheric seismic low velocity zone, we used a published shear wave model. We calculated that the velocity reduction observed between the base of the lithosphere (∼4.4–4.7 km/s) and the centre of the low velocity zone (∼4.2–4.3 km/s) beneath West Antarctica could be caused by a 0.1–0.3% melt fraction or a one order of magnitude reduction in grain size. However, the grain size reduction is inconsistent with our viscosity modelling constraints, suggesting that partial melt more feasibly explains the origin of the low velocity zone. Considering plausible asthenospheric stresses, we estimate the viscosity of the seismic low velocity zone beneath West Antarctica to be ∼1018–1019 Pa s. It has been shown elsewhere that the inclusion of a low viscosity layer of order 1019 Pa s in Fennoscandian models of glacial isostatic adjustment reduces disparities between predicted surface uplift rates and corresponding field observations. The incorporation of a low viscosity layer reflecting the seismic low velocity zone in Antarctic glacial isostatic adjustment models might similarly lessen the misfit with observed uplift rates.

Potential of the solid-Earth response for limiting long-term West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in a warming climate

We employ a coupled model for ice-sheet dynamics and Maxwell viscoelastic solid-Earth dynamics, including a gravitationally consistent description of sea level. With this model, we study the influence of the solid Earth on the future evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Starting from steady-state conditions close to the present-day configuration of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, we apply different atmospheric and oceanic forcings and solid-Earth rheologies in order to analyse the retreat of the WAIS. Climate forcing is the primary control on the occurrence of WAIS collapse. For moderate climate forcing and weak solid-Earth rheologies, however, we find that the relative sea level (RSL) fall associated with the viscoelastic solid-Earth response due to unloading by WAIS retreat limits the retreat to the Amundsen Sea embayment on time scales of several millennia, whereas stiffer Earth structures yield a collapse under these conditions. Under stronger climate forcing, weak Earth structures associated with the West Antarctic rift system produce a delay of up to 5000 years in comparison to stiffer, Antarctic-average solid-Earth rheologies. Furthermore, we find that sea-level rise from an assumed fast deglaciation of the Greenland Ice Sheet induces WAIS collapse in the presence of higher asthenosphere viscosities in cases when the climatic forcing is too weak to force WAIS collapse alone.