Annual Weather Fluctuations Research Articles

Implement and evaluate resilient energy infrastructures capable of withstanding spatial, temporal, and annual weather fluctuations in Saudi Arabia by 2050

The study delves into the development of a sustainable energy framework for Saudi Arabia, aimed at being fully operational by the year 2050. It highlights the critical role of integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, which are inherently influenced by diverse weather patterns across different timescales. Through advanced modelling techniques, the study explores various energy scenarios to assess the feasibility of VRE solutions in coping with the unpredictability of weather conditions. It seeks to strike a delicate balance among cost-effectiveness, energy security, and environmental sustainability, aligning with the national aspirations of Saudi Arabia Vision 2030 and international efforts to combat climate change. The findings illuminate the vital considerations and strategic choices necessary for transitioning to a VRE-dominant, low-carbon energy landscape. The research identifies both the hurdles and prospects of increasing VRE integration, suggesting comprehensive strategies to fortify the energy infrastructure against the backdrop of fluctuating weather phenomena. By aiming to design a resilient, low-carbon energy system by 2050, the study contributes significantly to the ongoing dialogue on sustainable energy strategies in the face of climatic variability, highlighting the transformative potential of VRE technologies in fostering a sustainable, low-carbon energy future. Moreover, the innovative 'soft-linked' modelling approach provides in-depth insights into the energy system evolution, emphasizing the imperative trade-offs and mitigation strategies required to establish an energy framework that harmonizes carbon reduction objectives, resilience, and meteorological variability, even with limited interconnectivity.

Re-examining the impact of annual weather fluctuations on global livestock production

Attempts to analyze the effect of weather shocks on livestock production have been carried out using integrated assessment models (IAMs) or the cross-sectional (Ricardian) method. However, these methodologies are fraught with obvious shortcomings, such as omitted variable bias, amongst others. This paper, therefore, re-examines the relationship between weather changes and global livestock production using an established econometric strategy that takes care of the pitfalls inherent in the conventional approaches. Using country-level data and a variety of specifications, we find that a 1 °C increase in temperature will lead to a 9.7% reduction in global beef production on average. These adverse effects are amplified in hot, poor, and agriculture-dependent countries. Besides, we find that a marginal increase in annual precipitation would lead to a 2.1% increase in beef production in tropical countries but a 1.9% decrease in temperate ones. Also, our forecasts show that climate change will reduce animal output by a further 20% in the mid-century and an additional 40% by the end of the century assuming no adaptation other than the degree of adaptation observed in the historical period.

Impacts of new artificial diets on activity and strength development of Apis mellifera honey bee colonies

One of the chronic problems that pose a serious threat for honey beesˈ continuity and survival is pollen and nectar deficiency caused by annual weather fluctuations. The current study aims to find an effective solution for this problem by providing honey bee colonies with diets characterized by appropriate cost, nutritional rich value, palatability and positive impacts on various biological activities. Three new artificial diets were prepared, diet W: based on wheat germ, diet S: based on soya beans and diet M: based on a mixture of equal proportions of wheat germ and soya beans. In the current study, several investigations have been performed including consumption rates of examined diets, sealed worker brood, stored honey areas, coloniesˈ strengths and pollen grainsˈ weights. Outstanding palatability rates were reported for examined diets, especially for diet S. Moreover, distinguished impacts for all investigated diets have been recorded by fed colonies, including sealed brood areas, produced honey areas, population densities and collected pollen. Consequently, the current study highly recommend diets W, S and M to be applied in apiaries due to their prominent results related to activity and strength development of honey bee colonies.

Genetic control of intra-annual height growth in 6-year-old Norway spruce progenies in Latvia

Coupling growth with periods of favourable weather conditions minimizes risks of frost damage and maximizes annual height increment. The phenology of the formation of height increment is therefore a trait related to the adaptability of trees to annual weather fluctuations. Strong genetic control of the timing of the onset and cessation of shoot elongation has been reported for Norway spruce, but little is known about its fluctuations that occur during the growth period. The strength of the genetic control of the height growth rate was assessed for young (6 years old) Norway spruce progenies originating from six open-pollinated stands from two local provenance regions. In 2010, the length of the growing period for the studied trees was ca. 60 days. Trees from the more continental provenance region, which had later onset and cessation of height growth (by ca. 2.5 days), exhibited slightly lower increments (by ca. 1%). Accordingly, the provenance region had a significant effect on height growth at the beginning and end of the growing period. Nevertheless, considerable genetic control of the growth rate was found throughout the entire growing period (particularly at the beginning and cessation, ha2 ≥ 0.20), except for a week-long interval around mid-summer (ha2 = 0.07). Similarly, the coefficient of additive genetic variation suggested that breeding could be applied for the improvement of height growth intensity throughout the season. The phenotypic correlations between weekly growth rates and tree height (before growth) were mostly non-significant, suggesting varying mechanisms of control, hence possibility for simultaneous improvement of the traits by breeding.

Impact of Annual Weather Fluctuations on Wine Production in Germany

AbstractThis paper analyzes the impact of annual weather fluctuations on the total output of wine and on the share of output of different wine-quality categories in Germany, using a set of wine data from all thirteen German wine regions and daily weather data taken from regional weather stations. The empirical analysis suggests that rising average temperatures have a significantly positive impact on the total output of wine as well as on the output shares of wine in higher-quality categories. The number of freezing days appears to be detrimental to overall production; precipitation during the growing season impairs higher-quality wines in particular. (JEL Classifications: Q21, Q13)

Climate Change and Labour Allocation in Rural Mexico: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather

This paper evaluates the effects of annual fluctuations in weather on employment in rural Mexico to gain insight into the potential labour market implications of climate change. Using a 28-year panel on individual employment, we find that years with a high occurrence of heat lead to a reduction in local employment, particularly for wage work and non-farm labour. Extreme heat also increases migration domestically from rural to urban areas and internationally to the U.S. A medium emissions scenario implies that increases in extreme heat may decrease local employment by up to 1.4% and climate change may increase migration by 1.4%. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Variable flowering phenology and pollinator use in a community suggest future phenological mismatch

Recent anthropogenic climate change is strongly associated with average shifts toward earlier seasonal timing of activity (phenology) in temperate-zone species. Shifts in phenology have the potential to alter ecological interactions, to the detriment of one or more interacting species. Recent models predict that detrimental phenological mismatch may increasingly occur between plants and their pollinators. One way to test this prediction is to examine data from ecological communities that experience large annual weather fluctuations. Taking this approach, we analyzed interactions over a four-year period among 132 plant species and 665 pollinating insect species within a Mediterranean community. For each plant species we recorded onset and duration of flowering and number of pollinator species. Flowering onset varied among years, and a year of earlier flowering of a species tended to be a year of fewer species pollinating its flowers. This relationship was attributable principally to early-flowering species, suggesting that shifts toward earlier phenology driven by climate change may reduce pollination services due to phenological mismatch. Earlier flowering onset of a species also was associated with prolonged flowering duration, but it is not certain that this will counterbalance any negative effects of lower pollinator species richness on plant reproductive success. Among plants with different life histories, annuals were more severely affected by flowering–pollinator mismatches than perennials. Specialized plant species (those attracting a smaller number of pollinator species) did not experience disproportionate interannual fluctuations in phenology. Thus they do not appear to be faced with disproportionate fluctuations in pollinator species richness, contrary to the expectation that specialists are at greatest risk of losing mutualistic interactions because of climate change.

Dual fuels: intra-annual variation in the relative importance of benthic and pelagic resources to maintenance, growth and reproduction in a generalist salmonid fish.

Ecological systems are often characterized as stable entities. However, basal productivity in most ecosystems varies between seasons, particularly in subarctic and polar areas. How this variability affects higher trophic levels or entire food webs remains largely unknown, especially in these high-latitude regions. We undertook a year-long study of benthic (macroinvertebrate) and pelagic (zooplankton) resource availability, along with short (day/days: stomach content)-, medium (month: liver δ(13)C and δ(15)N isotopes)- and long-term (season: muscle δ(13)C and δ(15)N isotopes) assessments of resource use by a generalist fish, the European whitefish, in a deep, oligotrophic, subarctic lake in northern Europe. Due to the long ice-covered winter period, we expected to find general benthic reliance throughout the year, but also a seasonal importance of zooplankton to the diet, somatic growth and gonadal development of whitefish. Benthic and pelagic resource availability varied between seasons: peak littoral benthic macroinvertebrate density occurred in mid-winter, whereas maximum zooplankton density was observed in summer. Whitefish stomach content revealed a reliance on benthic prey items during winter and pelagic prey in summer. A seasonal shift from benthic to pelagic prey was evident in liver isotope ratios, but muscle isotope ratios indicated a year-round reliance on benthic macroinvertebrates. Whitefish activity levels as well as somatic and gonadal growth all peaked during the summer, coinciding with the zooplankton peak and the warmest water temperature. Stable isotopes of muscle consistently depicted the most important resource, benthic macroinvertebrates, whereas short-term indicators, that is, diet and stable isotopes of liver, revealed the seasonal significance of pelagic zooplankton for somatic growth and gonad development. Seasonal variability in resource availability strongly influences consumer growth and reproduction and may also be important in other ecosystems facing pronounced annual weather fluctuations.

Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US

Using random year-to-year variation in temperature, we document the relationship between daily temperatures and annual mortality rates and daily temperatures and annual residential energy consumption. Both relationships exhibit nonlinearities, with significant increases at the extremes of the temperature distribution. The application of these results to “business as usual” climate predictions indicates that by the end of the century climate change will lead to increases of 3 percent in the age-adjusted mortality rate and 11 percent in annual residential energy consumption. These estimates likely overstate the long-run costs, because climate change will unfold gradually allowing individuals to engage in a wider set of adaptations. (JEL I12, Q41, Q54)

Annualized diameter and height growth equations for Pacific Northwest plantation-grown Douglas-fir, western hemlock, and red alder

Simulating the influence of intensive management and annual weather fluctuations on tree growth requires a shorter time step than currently employed by most regional growth models. High-quality data sets are available for several plantation species in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States, but the growth periods ranged from 2 to 12 years in length. Measurement periods of varying length complicate efforts to fit growth models because observed growth rates must be interpolated to a common length growth period or those growth periods longer or shorter than the desired model time step must be discarded. A variation of the iterative technique suggested by Cao [Cao, Q.V., 2000. Prediction of annual diameter growth and survival for individual trees from periodic measurements. Forest Sci. 46, 127–131] was applied to estimate annualized diameter and height growth equations for pure plantations of Douglas-fir, western hemlock, and red alder. Using this technique, fits were significantly improved for all three species by embedding a multi-level nonlinear mixed-effects framework (likelihood ratio test: p < 0.0001). The final models were consistent with expected biological behavior of diameter and height growth over tree, stand, and site variables. The random effects showed some correlation with key physiographic variables such as slope and aspect for Douglas-fir and red alder, but these relationships were not observed for western hemlock. Further, the random effects were more correlated with physiographic variables than actual climate or soils information. Long-term simulations (12–16 years) on an independent dataset using these annualized equations showed that the multi-level mixed effects models were more accurate and precise than those fitted without random effects as mean square error (MSE) was reduced by 13 and 21% for diameter and height growth prediction, respectively. The level of prediction error was also smaller than an existing similar growth model with a longer time step (ORGANON v8) as the annualized equations reduced MSE by 17 and 38% for diameter and height growth prediction, respectively. These models will prove to be quite useful for understanding the interaction of weather and silviculture in the Pacific Northwest and refining the precision of future growth model projections.

Climate Change, Mortality and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the U.S.

This paper produces the first large-scale estimates of the US health related welfare costs due to climate change. The full welfare impact will be reflected in health outcomes and increased consumption of goods that preserve individuals' health. Using the presumably random year-to-year variation in temperature and two state of the art climate models, the analysis suggests that under a 'business as usual' scenario climate change will lead to an increase in the overall US annual mortality rate of approximately 2% at the end of the 21st century. Among different age groups, the estimated mortality increases are largest for infants. Individuals are likely to respond to higher temperatures by increasing air conditioning usage; the analysis suggests that climate change will lead to increases in annual residential energy consumption of up to 32% by the end of the century. Overall, the estimates suggest that the present discounted value of willingness to pay to avoid the climate change induced mortality and energy impacts predicted to occur over the remainder of the 21st century is about $900 billion (2006$) or 6.8% of 2006 GDP. This estimate of willingness to pay is statistically insignificant and is likely to overstate the long-run costs of climate change on these outcomes, because climate change will unfold gradually and individuals can engage in a wider set of adaptations that will mitigate costs in the longer run.

EXPERIMENTALLY REDUCING NEIGHBOR DENSITY AFFECTS REPRODUCTION AND BEHAVIOR OF A MIGRATORY SONGBIRD

Because populations of territorial birds are relatively stable compared to those of other animal taxa, they are often considered to be tightly regulated. However, the mechanisms that produce density-dependent feedbacks on demographic rates and thus regulate these populations are poorly understood, particularly for migratory species. We conducted a three-year density-reduction experiment to investigate the behavioral mechanisms that regulate the abundance of a Nearctic–Neotropical migrant passerine, the Black-throated Blue Warbler (Dendroica caerulescens), during the breeding season. We found that the number of young fledged per territory, territory size, and the proportion of time males spent foraging were significantly greater on territories around which neighbor density was experimentally reduced compared to control territories. Territory quality, proportion of nests depredated per territory, and male countersinging rates were not statistically different between treatments. These results indicate that individuals with more neighbors (i.e., in neighborhoods with greater conspecific density) have reduced breeding productivity. The results also suggest that a crowding mechanism that mediates interactions among territory-holders could generate the density dependence needed to regulate local abundance, at least in areas of homogeneous, high-quality habitat. The effect of the neighbor-density reduction on warbler fecundity and behavior varied with annual fluctuations in weather and food availability, and was strongest in 1997, an El Niño year, when conditions for breeding were least favorable. This variation in our experimental results among years implies that density dependence due to crowding may have its strongest impact on local abundance when environmental conditions are relatively poor.

Histoire du climat et économie : des faits nouveaux, une interprétation différente

Un souci constant des historiens du climat est de substituer à des observations anecdotiques et discontinues, des données objectives quantifiables et formant des séries chronologiques ininterrompues et s'étendant sur de longues périodes. Dans un premier temps, cet article allait dans ce sens ; il présentait une série de températures hivernales moyennes en Hollande à partir de 1634. Cette série comblait mes voeux d'historien de l'économie, dans la mesure où elle permettait de déterminer les conséquences des fluctuations annuelles de température en Hollande sur un certain nombre de variables économiques. C'est en cours d'élaboration puis d'analyse de ma série, que j'ai été amené à prendre en considération des données de l'histoire du climat voisines des miennes. Il m'a fallu finalement reconsidérer la théorie même de l'histoire du climat, ce qui m'entraînait très loin de mon propos initial, et de ma sphère de compétence.