Abstract

The study delves into the development of a sustainable energy framework for Saudi Arabia, aimed at being fully operational by the year 2050. It highlights the critical role of integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, which are inherently influenced by diverse weather patterns across different timescales. Through advanced modelling techniques, the study explores various energy scenarios to assess the feasibility of VRE solutions in coping with the unpredictability of weather conditions. It seeks to strike a delicate balance among cost-effectiveness, energy security, and environmental sustainability, aligning with the national aspirations of Saudi Arabia Vision 2030 and international efforts to combat climate change. The findings illuminate the vital considerations and strategic choices necessary for transitioning to a VRE-dominant, low-carbon energy landscape. The research identifies both the hurdles and prospects of increasing VRE integration, suggesting comprehensive strategies to fortify the energy infrastructure against the backdrop of fluctuating weather phenomena. By aiming to design a resilient, low-carbon energy system by 2050, the study contributes significantly to the ongoing dialogue on sustainable energy strategies in the face of climatic variability, highlighting the transformative potential of VRE technologies in fostering a sustainable, low-carbon energy future. Moreover, the innovative 'soft-linked' modelling approach provides in-depth insights into the energy system evolution, emphasizing the imperative trade-offs and mitigation strategies required to establish an energy framework that harmonizes carbon reduction objectives, resilience, and meteorological variability, even with limited interconnectivity.

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