Annual Variation Research Articles

Effects of Bedroom Environment on Average Heart Rate During Sleep in Temperate Regions: A Nonlinear Analysis of Annual Variations in Healthy Males in Their Twenties with Average BMI

Models obtained in our previous studies were adapted from a linear model. In these models, the operative temperature has a positive coefficient with respect to the average heart rate during sleep (SHR) in summer and a negative coefficient in winter. Therefore, there are limitations to using linear models to examine annual variations. This study attempted nonlinear modeling and conducted an analysis. The participants were nine healthy males in their twenties, with an average body mass index, living in a temperate region. The objective variable was SHR. The explanatory variables were the body movement rate during sleep (BM), room temperature, radiant temperature, bed microclimate temperature, and carbon dioxide concentration. In addition, the interaction effects between the bed microclimate temperature and CO2 concentration were considered because they showed significant correlations in the linear model. Results showed that the BM and SHR exhibited a positive linear correlation throughout the year. Radiant temperature showed a higher importance than room temperature in winter, as evaluated by permutation importance. SHR was lowest when room and radiant temperatures were approximately 25 [℃] to 26 [℃]; under higher or lower temperatures, the SHR increased. Additionally, when temperatures fell below 10 [℃], the trend shifted to a positive correlation. Bed microclimate temperature and SHR showed a positive correlation when exceeding 30 [℃]. The CO2 concentration and SHR exhibited a positive correlation below 1000 [ppm] during autumn and winter. Overall, a greater understanding of how environmental conditions affect SHR could enable the design of environments that promote a lower heart rate during sleep.

Response of parasitoid communities to insecticide application during a Lymantria dispar outbreak in mixed oak forests

Abstract In the temperate mixed oak forests of Central Europe, outbreaks of insects such as the spongy moth, Lymantria dispar, can cause severe defoliation and insecticide is sometimes applied for their control. Parasitoids, mainly Hymenoptera and Diptera, are among the most diverse and important natural enemies of caterpillars in these forests. However, due to their cryptic lifestyle and taxonomic difficulties, we lack knowledge on the impact of insecticide applications on complex host‐parasitoid networks. In a large‐scale field experiment, we tested the effect of spraying the lepidopteran‐specific insecticide Mimic (tebufenozide) on the abundance and community composition of both adult and larval parasitoids. We combined morphological identification, DNA barcoding and metabarcoding to identify parasitoids adult or inside caterpillars, both sampled by canopy fogging during an outbreak and two subsequent years. We analysed the abundance of parasitoids, community composition and network specialisation using statistical methods that account for sample incompleteness in host‐parasitoid data. For adult parasitoid assemblages, we found strong annual effects on abundance, with highest numbers of adult parasitoids occurring in the outbreak year, as well as on annual changes in community composition, but no effect linked to insecticide application. However, the abundance and species number of immature parasitoids revealed negative effects of insecticide application, while community composition was only affected by annual variation. Coverage‐based network analyses showed a reduction of taxonomic network diversity and network specialisation associated with insecticide application in the first 2 years. Synthesis and applications: This real‐world experiment shows that parasitoid populations respond immediately to large‐scale outbreaks but only limited to local disturbances. Results indicate that this group of natural enemies exhibits high mobility, enabling them to track host populations across large spatial scales. However, our observation of reduced network specialisation after insecticide application is a warning signal that ecosystem function, and consequently natural pest control services, may be impaired by human interference at the local stand scale.

Quantifying the Influence of Climatic and Anthropogenic Factors on Multi-Scalar Streamflow Variation of Jialing River, China

Clarifying the impact of driving forces on multi-temporal-scale (annual, quarterly and monthly) runoff changes is of great significance for watershed water resource planning. Based on monthly runoff data and meteorological data of the Jialing River (JLR) during 1982–2020, the Mann–Kendall tendency testing approach was first applied to analyze variation tendencies of multi-timescale runoff. Then, abrupt variation years of runoff were determined using Pettitt and cumulative anomaly mutation testing approaches. The ABCD model was employed for simulating hydrological change processes in the base period and variation period. Finally, influences of climatic and anthropic factors on multi-scalar runoff were computed using the multi-scalar Budyko formula. The following conclusions were drawn in this study: (1) The mutation year of discharge was 1993; (2) the monthly runoff in the JLR presented a “single peak” distribution, and the concentration degree and concentration period in the JLR both showed an insignificant reduction trend; (3) anthropic factors were the dominant factor for spring runoff variations; climatic factors were the dominant factor on annual, summer, fall and winter runoff variations; (4) except for November, climatic factors were the dominant factor causing runoff changes in the other 11 months. This study has important reference value for water resource allocation and flood control decisions in the JLR.

Monitoring the temporal variations of plant stress using the air pollution tolerance index in the Sejzi industrial area (Isfahan, Iran).

The objective of this study was to screen air pollution-induced stress in some plant species in the Sejzi industrial region (Isfahan, Iran). An assessment of APTI and other physiological and biochemical features of significant species in the area was conducted across three seasons: spring, summer, and autumn. The physiological and biochemical factors of the following species were evaluated: Limonium persicum, Atriplex lentiformis, Nitraria schoberi, Haloxylon persicum, Tamarix hispida, Zygophyllum atriplicoides, Karelinia caspica, and Prosopis farcta. The physiological factors assessed included acidity and relative humidity content, while the biochemical factors assessed included proline, sugar, ascorbic acid, and total chlorophyll. Subsequently, a thorough evaluation was carried out on the species under investigation to ascertain their biomonitors' capabilities and APTI. The study findings indicated that the species P. farcta, N. schoberi, and K. caspica consistently had high APTI values during the spring, autumn, and summer seasons, classifying them as tolerant plant species. Conversely, the observed traits showed significant fluctuations across the seasons. The investigation's findings indicate that the species L. persicum, N. schoberi, and K. caspica exhibit higher annual averages of chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b, total chlorophyll, and carotenoid compared to other species. The examination of the annual variation in the tolerance levels of plant species to pollution ranked from highest to lowest was as follows: N. schoberi, P. farcta, K. caspica, Z. atriplicoides, H. persicum, T. hispida, L. persicum, and A. lentiformis. Moreover, based on the annual average, the primary determinants that impact the APTI in the species being studied include ascorbic acid (35%), leaf acidity (19%), total chlorophyll content (35%), and relative humidity content (69%). Furthermore, a distinct and significant correlation was found between proline and sugar levels and the annual APTI values. Additionally, the species P. farcta had the highest API compared to other species. The study revealed the high potential of some plant species against air pollution induced stress which can be used in air and dust pollution management in the region.

Heating Performance and Energy Efficiency Analysis of Air-Source Heat Pumps in Public Buildings Across Different Climate Zonings

Article Heating Performance and Energy Efficiency Analysis of Air-Source Heat Pumps in Public Buildings Across Different Climate Zonings Junbao Fan 1, Yilin Liu 1,*, Jing Ma 2, Ying Cao 1,2, Zhibin Zhang 1, Xin Cui 1 and Liwen Jin 1,* 1 School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No. 28 Xianning West Road, Xi’an 710049, China 2 China Architecture Design and Research Group, Beijing 100044, China * Correspondence: ylliu@xjtu.edu.cn (Y.L.); lwjin@xjtu.edu.cn (L.J.) Received: 11 July 2024; Revised: 3 September 2024; Accepted: 5 September 2024; Published: 20 September 2024 Abstract: Public buildings exhibit the highest operational energy consumption and contribute the most to carbon emissions compared to other types of building. The electrification of energy terminals in public buildings is crucial for the energy conservation and emission reduction, especially the energy-saving retrofitting of heating systems. Given the significant impact of climate on the performance of air-source heat pumps, this study explored the performance and energy efficiency of air-source heat pump systems in public buildings across different climate zonings. Using Design Builder software, the physical models of three types of public buildings (commercial, hotel, and office) were constructed, and the annual variations in the building load was analyzed. Considering the effects of defrosting and low-temperature conditions, an air-source heat pump heating system models were developed using TRNSYS software. The simulation results showed that the average COP of the heat pump system on the coldest day in Harbin, Beijing, and Shanghai were 1.7, 2.46 and 2.49, respectively. Moreover, the analysis factor correlation analysis reveals that the COP of the heat pump system is positively correlated with the dry-bulb temperature, negatively correlated with the building load. Surprisingly, the COP is not affected by the types of public buildings. The findings of this study are expected to provide valuable guidance for the application and regulation of air-source heat pumps in the public buildings.

Advancing annual global mean surface temperature prediction to 2 months lead using physics based strategy

Interannual global mean surface temperature (GMST) forecast provides critical insights into the economic and societal implications of climate variability. The pronounced GMST elevation in 2023–2024 indicates that the Earth may have accumulated enough heat to cause widespread disasters, underscoring the necessity for establishing accurate short-term GMST predictions to offer timely and sustainable public service. However, capturing high-frequency annual variability (ANV) component of GMST poses challenges due to its susceptibility to intraseasonal-to-interannual (ISI) noises, particularly across the Northern Hemisphere’s mid-to-high latitudes. Averaging these ISI variations in November and December effectively enhances signal clarity, especially over oceans, and masks unpredictable noises on land. By forecasting the average GMST for November and December to extract ANV predictability, a strategy for annual GMST prediction was established. This approach successfully advanced precise GMST hindcasts by up to 2-months during 1980–2022, exceeding performance of existing climate models and boosting early warning for interannual GMST shifts.

Exploring the dynamics of sports records evolution through the gembris prediction model and network relevance analysis

Background Sports records hold valuable insights into human physiological limits. However, presently, there is a lack of integration and evolutionary patterns in the recorded information across various sports. Methods We selected sports records from 1992 to 2018, covering 24 events in men’s track, field, and swimming. The Gembris prediction model calculated performance randomness, and Pearson correlation analysis assessed network relevance between projects. Quantitative study of model parameters revealed the impact of various world records’ change range, predicted value, and network correlation on evolutionary patterns. Results 1) The evolution range indicates that swimming events generally have a larger annual world record variation than track and field events; 2) Gembris’s predictions show that sprint, marathon, and swimming records outperform their predicted values annually; 3) Network relevance analysis reveals highly significant correlations between all swimming events and sprints, as well as significant correlations between marathon and all swimming events. Conclusion Sports record evolution is closely linked not only to specific sports technology but also to energy expenditure. Strengthening basic physical training is recommended to enhance sports performance.

Soil Respiration Under a Short–Term Drought on the Example of Typical West Siberian Bogs (Middle Taiga)

Cumulative (June–August) soil respiration (Rsoil(cum)), obtained based on field measurements and mathematical modeling, increased from wet areas of the oligotrophic bog to drained ones – “Hollow E.”, “Hollow Sh.” (hollows, dominated by Eriophorum vaginatum and Scheuchzeria palustris, respectively), “Open bog” (sphagnum bog with sparse low pine trees), “Ridge” (oligotrophic ridges covered with low pine trees), “Tall ryam” and “Ryam” (forested pine-shrub-sphagnum bog): 135 ± 2.3, 139 ± 2.4, 275 ± 7.8, 279 ± 7.5, 466 ± 16.4, 510 ± 18.5 g C/ (m2 season), respectively (mean ± std). An important factor of seasonal and annual variability of Rsoil was the water table level (WTL): the extremely low amount of precipitation (6 mm) that fell in July 2022 led to a sharp drop of WTL in August, an increase of the aerated soil zone. As result, total Rsoil(cum) over the summer in the studied biotopes increases by 29–54% compared to the same period in 2021. At the same time, the most intensive growth of Rsoil during the drop of the WTL was on the edge of the bog (“Tall ryam”, “Ryam” and “Open Bog”), in contrast to its central area.

Study on the characteristics of urban background ozone pollution based on long-term observations from mountain sites in China during 2015–2022

In recent years, Chinese cities have faced persistent O3 pollution challenges. O3 concentrations at urban mountain sites, serving as proxies for urban background O3 levels, can help address data gaps in O3 research in China. This study, for the first time, analyzed O3 data from ten urban mountain sites during 2015–2022 using statistical methods like the Mann-Kendall test, Theil-Sen slope estimation, and Pearson correlation analysis to reveal characteristics and trends in urban background O3 and proposed a metric for assessing mountain sites as urban background stations. Results indicate that O3 at mountain sites were generally higher than at plain sites, regardless of mean, 10th percentile, or 90th percentile the average maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) O3. Although mountain sites exhibited similar annual and diurnal variations as plain sites, their amplitudes were significantly lower. Significant upward trends (P < 0.05) in MDA8 O3 were observed mainly at plain sites, whereas trends at mountain sites were insignificant (P > 0.05) during 2015–2022. The increase in urban ground-level O3 was largely due to changes in VOCs and NOx emission structures, which reduce nighttime titration effects while enhancing daytime O3 production. The insignificant trends observed at mountain sites suggest that these mountain sites may be in NOx-limited or transitional regimes rather than VOCs-limited regimes, which is also associated with their lower NOx concentrations compared to plain sites. These findings suggest that if China continues to prioritize the reduction of NOx emissions, urban ground-level O3 could further increase and approach the O3 at mountain sites. Finally, this study proposes that the correlation in nighttime O3 concentrations between mountain and plain stations can serve as a valuable indicator for evaluating the suitability of mountain stations as regional background stations in urban areas. It recommends mountain sites in cities such as Changji, Nanping for urban background O3 monitoring stations.

Estimating effective population size using close‐kin mark–recapture

Abstract Close‐kin mark–recapture (CKMR) is a method that allows estimating population census size, among other parameters, through the observed number of pairs that are close‐kin including parent–offspring pairs (POPs) and half‐sibling pairs (HSPs). CKMR models are capable of estimating abundance, fecundity and survival at age using POPs and HSPs from different cohorts. The link between effective population size (Ne) and the number of ‘within‐cohort’ sibling pairs has been noted before but how to actually achieve such an estimate with CKMR has not been previously demonstrated. We show it is possible to use the number of ‘within‐cohort’ sibling pairs along with POPs and ‘different‐cohort’ HSPs to estimate Ne. These can be combined with an estimate of annual variance in number of offspring to estimate the lifetime variance of total reproductive success which can be used to find Ne. We show that the variance in number of offspring produced by adults in a given year is related to the within‐cohort comparisons. Our approach is demonstrated on an individual‐based simulation where we show that the CKMR Ne estimate offers similar results to Ne estimated from methods like linkage disequilibrium. Our methods allow estimating Ne using CKMR while also estimating demographic parameters.

Effect of the reference rural landscape on annual variations in surface urban heat island intensity

The urban heat island effect poses a significant climate risk associated with urbanization. Existing research primarily focuses on the spatiotemporal variations in land surface temperature (LST) within urban areas and their effects on surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII). However, investigations into how annual dynamic changes in rural landscapes impact reference LST and SUHII remain limited. This study examines 28 representative cities worldwide that experience seasonal snow cover and are predominantly surrounded by croplands or forests. The objective is to explore the patterns of continuous annual variations in SUHII and to elucidate the underlying physical mechanisms through which changes in rural landscapes affect these variations. The results reveal that SUHII consistently exhibits a double-peak pattern, with peaks occurring during the transition from winter to spring and in mid-summer. The first, moderate-intensity peak is attributed to differential snowmelt between urban and rural areas, while the more pronounced second peak is associated with the enhanced cooling effect of vegetation evapotranspiration (ET) during the growing season. Furthermore, a strong correlation between leaf area index, ET, and SUHII underscores the significance of rural vegetation in shaping SUHII variations. These findings highlight the necessity for detailed descriptions of rural reference landscapes to improve the interpretability and comparability of SUHII results. Additionally, the study suggests the need for differentiated SUHII evaluation thresholds tailored to cities with diverse rural landscapes.

Seasonal and annual variations of sediment trapping and particulate organic carbon burial in Yellow River reservoirs

The Yellow River is distinguished by the highest sediment load in mainland China and significant siltation in artificial reservoirs along its main channel, reducing water availability, sediment trapping, and carbon burial in the hydrological project. Since 2002, the Water Sediment Regulation Scheme (WSRS) has been progressively implemented as a hydraulic management strategy to mitigate reservoir sedimentation in the middle-lower basin reservoirs. However, this substantial release of sediment and water has also affected river morphology, carbon burial, and sediment trapping.This research assesses the evolution of particulate organic carbon burial and sediment trapping in eight Yellow River reservoirs from 2002 to 2018, covering the upper and middle-lower basins and two reservoirs in the Yiluo River sub-basin. We calculated the annual and seasonal variations using hydrological data from 11 stations along the Yellow River. A hydrological framework was developed to calculate sediment trapping, and a Monte Carlo analysis was performed to estimate particulate organic carbon burial across all the evaluated reservoirs.We found that sediment trapping and carbon burial in upper basin reservoirs are most influenced by shifts in the precipitation regime, particularly by natural events such as severe droughts or heavy rainfall. A strong correlation was observed between annual precipitation variations and sediment load. In middle-lower basin reservoirs, the major artificial sediment regulation is strongly linked to a significant reduction in sediment trapping and particulate organic carbon burial. This impact is especially notable in the Yiluo River Sub-basin reservoirs, which have experienced a >90 % reduction compared to levels before the WSRS implementation.Finally, we highlight the consequences of climate change and artificial water management strategies in reservoirs, demonstrating how both affect their capacity for sediment trapping and impact their role as significant carbon sinks.

Probabilistic Assessment of the Impact of Electric Vehicle Fast Charging Stations Integration into MV Distribution Networks Considering Annual and Seasonal Time-Series Data

Electric vehicle (EV) fast charging stations (FCSs) are essential for achieving net-zero carbon emissions. However, their high power demands pose technical hurdles for medium-voltage (MV) distribution networks, resulting in energy losses, equipment performance issues, overheating, and unexpected tripping. Integrating FCSs into the grid requires considering annual and seasonal variations in EV fast-charging energy consumption. Neglecting these variations can lead to either underestimating or overestimating the impacts of FCSs on the networks. This paper introduces a probabilistic method to assess voltage profile violations, overload capacity, and increased power losses due to FCSs. By incorporating annual and seasonal time-series data, the method accounts for uncertainties related to EV fast charging. Applied to an MV feeder in Brazil, our evaluations highlight the impact of annual power consumption seasonality on EV-grid integration studies. Considering seasonal dependency is crucial for precise impact assessments of MV distribution networks. The proposed method aids utility engineers and planners in quantifying and mitigating the effects of EV fast charging, contributing to more reliable MV grid integration strategies.

Research on Glacier Changes and Their Influencing Factors in the Yigong Zangbo River Basin of the Tibetan Plateau, China, Based on ICESat-2 Data

The intense changes in glaciers in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) have essential impacts on regional water resource management. In order to study the seasonal fluctuations of glaciers in this region and their relationship with climate change, we focus on the Yigong Zangbo River Basin in the SETP, extract the annual and seasonal variations of glaciers in the basin during 2018–2023, and analyze their spatio-temporal characteristics through the seasonal-trend decomposition using the LOESS (STL) method. Finally, combining the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model and the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) model, we assess the comprehensive impact of meteorological factors such as temperature and snowfall on glacier changes. The results indicate that glaciers in the Yigong Zangbo River Basin experienced remarkable mass loss during 2018–2023, with an average annual melting rate of −0.83 ± 0.12 m w.e.∙yr−1. The glacier mass exhibits marked seasonal fluctuations, with increases in January–March (JFM) and April–June (AMJ) and noticeable melting in July–September (JAS) and October–December (OND). The changes over these four periods are 2.12 ± 0.04 m w.e., 0.93 ± 0.15 m w.e., −1.58 ± 0.19 m w.e., and −1.32 ± 0.17 m w.e., respectively. Temperature has been identified as the primary meteorological driver of glacier changes in the study area, surpassing the impact of snowfall. This study uses advanced altimetry data and meteorological data to monitor and analyze glacier changes, which provides valuable data for cryosphere research and also validates a set of replicable research methods, which provides support for future research in related fields.

Features of Temporal Variability of the Concentrations of Gaseous Trace Pollutants in the Air of the Urban and Rural Areas in the Southern Baikal Region (East Siberia, Russia)

This article presents the results of the automatic monitoring of the concentrations of gaseous impurities of sulfur and nitrogen oxides in the ground-level atmosphere of the urban and rural areas in the Southern Baikal region (East Siberia, Russia). The study was conducted from 2020 to 2023 at the urban Irkutsk station and the rural Listvyanka station located at a distance of 70 km from each other. We calculated the main statistical characteristics of the variations in the concentrations of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide in the ground-level atmosphere and determined a nature of variability in their concentrations on various time scales: annual, weekly, and daily. Annual variabilities of gaseous pollutants in the ground-level atmosphere above the Irkutsk city and the Listvyanka settlement were similar and showed the highest values in winter and the lowest in summer. The daily and weekly dynamics of the nitrogen oxide concentrations in the urban area clearly depended on the increase in the road traffic during rush hours (morning and evening). In the rural area, there was no such dependence. In this area, the daily and weekly variability in the concentrations of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide mainly depended on natural meteorological processes. The work systematizes the meteorological parameters at which the largest amount of anthropogenic impurities enters the air basin of Lake Baikal. The maximum values of acid-forming gas concentrations were observed when the air masses were transferred from the northwest direction, which corresponds to the location of sources in the territory of the Irkutsk–Cheremkhovo industrial hub—the largest concentration of anthropogenic objects in the Irkutsk region.

Exploring the long-term variations and high concentration episodes of peroxyacetyl nitrate in Megacity Seoul

Over the past few years, peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) has drawn significant attention as a key indicator of photochemical pollution owing to its intimate relationship with ozone and associated health effects. This study presents measurements conducted at the Korea University campus in Seoul during the high-ozone seasons from 2018 to 2021. PAN concentration was measured using fast gas chromatography with luminol chemiluminescence detection (GC-LCD), alongside measurements of O3, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), NO, NO2, and meteorological variables, including boundary layer height (BLH).The mean concentrations of PAN and O3 over the years were 0.56 ppbv and 35 ppbv in 2018, 1.29 ppbv and 58 ppbv in 2019, 0.21 ppbv and 50 ppbv 2020, and 0.53 ppbv and 46 ppbv in 2021, respectively. The annual variation observed in Seoul is consistent with trends seen in major cities worldwide during the COVID19 pandemic, reflecting a substantial reduction in urban emissions. Notably, the mean concentration of NOx and VOCs decreased significantly by more than 50 % and 25%, respectively, from 2019 to 2021.At temperatures above 30 °C, PAN decomposition was accelerated, decoupling a consistent positive relationship between PAN and O3 in 2020 and 2021. The results of a 0-D photochemical model (F0AM) calculation demonstrated that PAN formation primarily stems from anthropogenic VOCs, particularly > C2 alkenes. Elevated PAN concentrations during nighttime were attributed to boundary layer expansion and upper-air entrainment. Instances where PAN concentrations surged to at least 3 ppbv or higher in 2019 were attributed to biomass burning impacted air, as evidenced by concurrent elevations in K+ and OC in PM2.5, and O3.This study underscores the complex interplay of factors influencing PAN and ozone enhancements under decreased precursor levels, with an emphasis on dynamic change in the boundary layer, and long-distance transport of non-fossil sources during agricultural burning seasons.

New perspective, more rational decoupling: A case study of China

Scholars usually unconsciously employ the Tapio decoupling model with a static perspective and results-oriented philosophy, which often leads to errors. Therefore, we propose an improved Tapio decoupling model that adopts a dynamic perspective and process-oriented philosophy. Taking China, the world's largest carbon emitter, as a case study, we investigate the decoupling of its provincial industrial carbon emissions (ICE) from industrial value-added (IVA) during 2005–2020 using both the conventional and improved decoupling model, followed by a comparative analysis of their results. Our findings are as follows: (1) Both China's ICE and IVA exhibited a general upward trend during the study period, with non-linear annual ICE and IVA variations observed across all provinces. (2) Overall, China's provincial IVA increasingly decoupled from ICE, with some provinces achieving a strong decoupling state during 2015–2020; however, from the long-term perspective spanning the entire study period, most provinces remained in a weak decoupling state. (3) The conventional decoupling model tends to yield overly optimistic results in empirical study of China, with the decoupling indices during the periods of 2005–2010 and 2005–2020 determined by the conventional model even had significant statistical difference between those determined by the improved model. (4) To ensure equity, differentiated carbon reduction policies should be tailored to each province, considering factors such as absolute carbon emissions, short-term decoupling states, and long-term decoupling states. The improved Tapio decoupling model is proposed as a valuable framework for researchers engaged in related studies.

Evolution Characteristics of Heilongtan Spring Discharge and Its Response Law to Precipitation in Lijiang City, China

The contradiction between water supply and spring preservation issues is becoming increasingly apparent as Lijiang City develops. An investigation into the dynamic variations in the discharge rate of Heilongtan Spring in Lijiang City and the response law between the water level of the spring and precipitation is crucial for safeguarding the landscape water of Heilongtan Spring. This study employed linear regression analysis, Mann–Kendall (MK) mutation test, wavelet analysis, and vector autoregression (VAR) to examine the fluctuating pattern of the Heilongtan Spring discharge and the response of the Heilongtan Spring water level to precipitation in Lijiang City. Furthermore, the study discussed the influence of human activities on the alteration of Heilongtan Spring. The results indicate that the mean discharge rate of Heilongtan Spring is 0.94 m3/s, with an annual variation of 0.05 m3/s. The time series analysis reveals that the variation pattern of Heilongtan Spring discharge aligns with the precipitation trend in Lijiang City. Nevertheless, there is a distinction between the timing of the Heilongtan Spring discharge station point and the precipitation mutation point in Lijiang City. The significant primary cycle of spring discharge change occurs every 18 months, with a cycle length of 12 months. The vector autoregression (VAR) model demonstrates a lagged relationship between the water level of Heilongtan Spring and the precipitation in Lijiang City. Specifically, the water level of Heilongtan Spring has a four-month lag response to precipitation variability in Lijiang City. The results can provide a beneficial reference for preserving spring water and managing regional water resources.

Annual variation in attribute importance to upland game hunter satisfaction in Nebraska

AbstractTo sustain recreational hunting participation, we need to identify what makes a hunting experience satisfying. Merely identifying which factors are important to hunter satisfaction may be insufficient, however, as factor importance could vary across consecutive hunting seasons. Using online surveys, completed by individuals who hunted upland game in Nebraska, USA, from 2018 to 2022, we applied importance grid analysis (IGA) and penalty–reward contrast analysis (PRCA) to examine how activity‐specific factors influenced satisfaction across 5 consecutive hunting seasons. Results suggested consistent differences between the explicit (perceived importance) and implicit (performance) importance of factors for each hunting season. Factors related to seeing birds and harvest held greater implicit importance than expected based on explicit importance ratings (τ &gt; 0.55, P &lt; 0.05), whereas factors relating to access and other hunters held relatively lower implicit importance (τ &lt; 0.31, P &lt; 0.05). The PRCA method consistently identified seeing game birds as a minimum requirement to upland game hunting (penalty β &lt; −0.26, P &lt; 0.01). However, factors relating to harvest, access, and other hunters emerged as important only within certain seasons. Using IGA and PRCA provided valuable insights about the importance of hunters seeing game birds, and how aspects of different hunting seasons may improve satisfaction for hunters.

Annual variation of estimated glomerular filtration rate in health check-ups associated with end-stage kidney disease

Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) variation is associated with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) development in patients with chronic kidney disease; whether annual variations in eGFR at health check-ups is associated with ESKD risk in the general population is unclear. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using Japanese national medical insurance claims from 2013 to 2020. Individuals who had their eGFR levels measured three times in annual health check-ups were included (N = 115,191), and the coefficient of variation of eGFR (CVeGFR) was calculated from 3-point eGFR. The end-point was ESKD as reported in the claims data. We analyzed the association between CVeGFR and ESKD incidence after adjusting for conventional ESKD risk factors. The CVeGFR median distribution was 5.7% (interquartile range: 3.5–8.5%). During a median follow-up period of 3.74 years, 164 patients progressed to ESKD. ESKD incidence was significantly higher in the highest quartile group (CVeGFR ≥ 8.5%) than in the other groups (P < 0.0001). After adjusting for risk factors, individuals with CVeGFR ≥ 8.5% had a significantly high ESKD incidence (adjusted hazard ratio: 3.01; 95% CI 2.14–4.30). High CVeGFR in annual health check-ups was associated with high ESKD incidence, independent of its other conventional risk factors, in the general population.