Annual Surface Mass Balance Research Articles

Deriving seasonal and annual surface mass balance for debris-covered glaciers from flow-corrected satellite stereo DEM time series

Abstract Glaciers in High-Mountain Asia are experiencing varying rates and patterns of mass loss due to a complex interplay between glacier surface processes, local conditions and climate forcing. Spatially distributed surface mass balance (SMB) estimates can provide valuable insight into these drivers, but observations are currently limited in both space and time. We used very-high-resolution optical stereo images acquired by commercial satellites to prepare time series of digital elevation models (DEMs), and derived contemporaneous surface velocity and elevation change products for six debris-covered glaciers in Nepal. We developed new methods to produce flow-corrected Lagrangian SMB maps to isolate local surface ablation signals with enough detail to study individual ice cliffs. Our results show reduced ablation under thick debris cover and enhanced ablation over ice cliffs. Ablating ice cliffs were responsible for $10\!-\!38\%$ of the total ablation over debris-covered areas, even though they covered $\leq \!11\%$ of the total area. Seasonal SMB products reveal the timing and patterns of summer accumulation and ablation, underscoring the importance of snow avalanches for low-elevation debris-covered glaciers in the region. Our approach can be applied to other glaciers with repeat high-resolution DEM coverage and extended for regional analyses of SMB on seasonal to interannual timescales.

New insights on the interannual surface mass balance variability on the South Shetland Islands glaciers, northerly Antarctic Peninsula

Few studies have assessed a comprehensive understanding of how the seasonal and interannual variability and trends of the surface mass balance (SMB), including the influence of atmospheric river (ARs), are governed by the climate on the South Shetland Islands (SSI) glaciers located in the northerly Antarctic Peninsula (AP). To address this gap, we comprehensively analyzed the correlations and regressions between seasonal and annual SMB with regional to global climate indices and a state-of-the-art AR tracking database from 1980 to 2019. The daily and monthly SMB was obtained from two physical glaciological models, which was verified against 19 years of annual and seasonal glacier-wide SMB observations available in three glaciers (Johnsons, Hurd, and Bellingshausen), showing a good ability to capture interannual and seasonal variability. Results indicate a low dependence of the SMB on main atmospheric modes of variability (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode), and a moderate dependence on regional climate indices based on atmospheric pressure anomalies and sea surface temperature anomalies over the Drake Passage. Furthermore, our findings reveal that ARs have different effects on the SMB depending on the season. For example, winter ARs tend to boost accumulation due to increased snowfall, while summer ARs tend to intensify surface melting due to increased sensible heat flux. Our study highlights the Drake Passage as a key region that has the potential to influence the interannual and seasonal variability of the SMB and other climate variables, such as air temperature and snowfall over the SSI. We suggest that future work should consider this region to better understand the past, present and future climate changes on the SSI and surrounding areas.

On the importance of the humidity flux for the surface mass balance in the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Abstract. It is highly uncertain how the humidity flux between the snow surface and the atmosphere contributes to the surface mass balance (SMB) of the interior Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Due to sparse observations, evaluations of the simulated humidity flux are limited. Model-based estimates of the humidity flux contribution to the SMB are, therefore, unconstrained and even disagree in magnitude and sign. In this study, we evaluate the regional climate model MAR at the EGRIP (East Greenland Ice-Core Project) site in the accumulation zone of the GrIS. We use a combined dataset of continuous one-level bulk estimates of the humidity flux covering the period of May 2016–August 2019 and eddy-resolving eddy-covariance humidity flux measurements from all four summer seasons. In summer, we document a bias of too little sublimation (−1.3 W m−2, −1.65 mm w.e.) caused by a cold bias in both air and surface temperature, leading to a reduced humidity gradient. In winter, MAR overestimates vapor deposition by about 1 order of magnitude. This is a consequence of an overestimated temperature gradient in too stable atmospheric conditions compared to observations. Both systematic errors cause a large discrepancy in the annual net humidity flux between the model and observations of −9 mm w.e. yr−1. Remarkably, the simulated net annual humidity flux contributes positively to the SMB, contrary to observations documenting a net sublimation flux. We correct the systematic errors by applying a simple but effective correction function to the simulated latent heat flux. Using this correction, we find that 5.1 % of the annual mass gain at the EGRIP site sublimates again, and 4.3 % of the total mass gain is deposited vapor from the near-surface air. The estimated net humidity flux contribution to the annual SMB is about −1 % (net sublimation) compared to +5.6 % for the uncorrected simulation. In summer, the corrected MAR simulation shows that vapor deposition accounts for 9.6 % of the total mass gain and that 31 % of the total mass gain at the EGRIP site sublimates again. The net fluxes contribute to −32 % of the summer SMB. These results demonstrate that the humidity flux is a major driver of the summer SMB in the accumulation zone of the GrIS and highlight that even small changes could increase its importance for the annual SMB in a warming climate.

Reconstructing 32 years (1989–2020) of annual glacier surface mass balance in Chandra Basin, Western Himalayas, India

Reconstructing 32 years (1989–2020) of annual glacier surface mass balance in Chandra Basin, Western Himalayas, India

Introduction

Introduction

Use of ablation-season albedo as an indicator of annual mass balance of four glaciers in the Tien Shan

Glacier mass balance and its sensitivity to climate change depend to a large degree on the albedo and albedo feedback. Although recent increasing studies reconstruct the annual surface mass balance (SMB) based on the relationships between satellite-derived minimum albedo and annual glaciological mass balance (so-called albedo method), a relationship remains conjectural for Tien Shan glaciers. Accumulation and ablation occur simultaneously in summer, causing different surface processes. We examine this relationship using glaciological mass-balance data and the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) made on the eastern branch of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 (UG1-E), Tuyuksu, Golubin and Glacier No. 354, and ablation-season (May–September) albedo retrieved from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images from 2000 to 2021. Compared with minimum ablation-season albedo, we find higher coefficients of determination between mean ablation-season albedo and glaciological mass balance at UG1-E and Tuyuksu. In contrast, for Golubin and Glacier No. 354, glaciological mass balance is higher correlated to minimum ablation-season albedo than mean ablation-season albedo. This difference is related to the glaciological mass-balance time period. The relationship between albedo and glaciological mass balance is obtained over a shorter time for Golubin (8 years) and Glacier No. 354 (9 years) than for UG1-E (20 years) and Tuyuksu (20 years). Non-etheless, based on the correlativity between MODIS-derived mean ablation-season albedo and minimum ablation-season albedo and glaciological mass balance of Golubin and Glacier No. 354 over the 2011–2019 period, the annual SMB for these glaciers can be reconstructed using the albedo method over the period 2000–2010. Comparison with previously reconstructed results indicated that the mass balance derived from albedo is robust for Glacier No. 354, while for Golubin, the results derived from the albedo method only captured the relative changes in mass balance. The current study suggested that ablation-season albedo can be regarded as a proxy for annual mass balance, and mean ablation-season albedo may be more reliable than minimum ablation-season albedo for some Tien Shan glaciers.

Reconstruction of Annual Glacier Mass Balance from Remote Sensing-Derived Average Glacier-Wide Albedo

Annual mass balance is an important reflection of glacier status that is also very sensitive to climate fluctuations. However, there is no effective and universal albedo-based method for the reconstruction of annual mass balance due to the scarcity of field observations. Here, we present an improved albedo–mass balance (IAMB) method to estimate annual glacier surface mass balance series using remote sensing techniques. The averaged glacier-wide albedo derived with the MODImLab algorithm during the summer season provides an effective proxy of the annual mass change. Defined as the variation in the albedo as a function of elevation change, the altitude–albedo gradient (∂z/∂α) can be obtained from a glacier digital elevation model (DEM) and optical images. The Chhota Shigri glacier situated in the western Himalayas was selected to test and assess the accuracy of this method over the period from 2003 to 2014. Reconstructed annual mass budgets correlated well with those from the observed records, with an average difference and root mean square error (RMSE) of −0.75 mm w.e. a−1 and 274.91 mm w.e. a−1, respectively, indicating that the IAMB method holds promise for glacier mass change monitoring. This study provides a new technique for annual mass balance estimation that can be applied to glaciers with no or few mass balance observations.

Importance of the seasonal temperature and precipitation variation on glacial evolutions during the LGM at monsoonal Himalaya based on Cogarbu valley

Glacier models have played a more and more important role in reconstructing the paleoglacier and paleoclimate, but the detailed analysis based on high spatial and temporal resolution simulations is rare. In this study, we deeply analyzed the paleoglacial evolution on seasonal scale and its relationship with the large-scale circulation shifts during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in Cogarbu valley, a typical monsoon influence region, using the Open Global Glacier Model driven by 12 Global Circulation Models and their average. The paleoglacier reconstructed under the mean climate is closer to the observations, with the glacier length, area, and volume of 19.8 km, 35.7 km2, and 6.6 km3, respectively. The reconstructed equilibrium-line altitude is ~5253 m, about 662 m lower than modern. The temperature has a 4.6 °C decreasing with a 16.3% reduction of precipitation. The seasonal temperature decreases about −4.0, −4.6, −4.2, and − 5.5 °C in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Detailed analysis on atmospheric circulation shifts indicates that the high correlation of temperature change between TP and North Atlantic Ocean might be caused by their similar response to the global climate change results from the reduction of insolation rather than baroclinic waves. In summer, southward-shifted and narrowed the Intertropical Convergence Zone weakened the Indian Summer Monsoon, decreasing the summer precipitation of −22.4% compared to modern. In winter, the enhancement of the South Branch of Westerlies increased the winter precipitation of 10.0%. Despite more winter precipitation refueled the glacial accumulation, the decreasing of the summer temperature has dominant influence on the annual net surface mass balance via reducing the summer ablation during the LGM.

Beyond glacier-wide mass balances: parsing seasonal elevation change into spatially resolved patterns of accumulation and ablation at Wolverine Glacier, Alaska

AbstractWe present spatially distributed seasonal and annual surface mass balances of Wolverine Glacier, Alaska, from 2016 to 2020. Our approach accounts for the effects of ice emergence and firn compaction on surface elevation changes to resolve the spatial patterns in mass balance at 10 m scale. We present and compare three methods for estimating emergence velocities. Firn compaction was constrained by optimizing a firn model to fit three firn cores. Distributed mass balances showed good agreement with mass-balance stakes (RMSE = 0.67 m w.e., r = 0.99, n = 41) and ground-penetrating radar surveys (RMSE = 0.36 m w.e., r = 0.85, n = 9024). Fundamental differences in the distributions of seasonal balances highlight the importance of disparate physical processes, with anomalously high ablation rates observed in icefalls. Winter balances were found to be positively skewed when controlling for elevation, while summer and annual balances were negatively skewed. We show that only a small percent of the glacier surface represents ideal locations for mass-balance stake placement. Importantly, no suitable areas are found near the terminus or in elevation bands dominated by icefalls. These findings offer explanations for the often-needed geodetic calibrations of glaciological time series.

A decade of glaciological and meteorological observations in the Arctic (Werenskioldbreen, Svalbard)

Abstract. The warming of the Arctic climate is well documented, but the mechanisms of Arctic amplification are still not fully understood. Thus, monitoring of glaciological and meteorological variables and the environmental response to accelerated climate warming must be continued and developed in Svalbard. Long-term meteorological observations carried out in situ on glaciers in conjunction with glaciological monitoring are rare in the Arctic and significantly expand our knowledge about processes in the polar environment. This study presents glaciological and meteorological data collected for 2009–2020 in southern Spitsbergen (Werenskioldbreen). The meteorological data are composed of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, short-wave and long-wave upwelling and downwelling radiation on 10 min, hourly and daily resolution (2009–2020). The snow dataset includes 49 data records from 2009 to 2019 with the snow depth, snow bulk density and snow water equivalent data. The glaciological data consist of seasonal and annual surface mass balance measurements (point and glacier-wide) for 2009–2020. The paper also includes modelling of the daily glacier surface ablation (2009–2020) based on the presented data. The datasets are expected to serve as local forcing data in hydrological and glaciological models as well as validation of calibration of remote sensing products. The datasets are available from the Polish Polar Database (https://ppdb.us.edu.pl/, last access: 24 May 2022) and Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6528321, Ignatiuk, 2021a; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5792168, Ignatiuk, 2021b).

Climate Controls on the Interseasonal and Interannual Variability of the Surface Mass and Energy Balances of a Tropical Glacier (Zongo Glacier, Bolivia, 16°S): New Insights From the Multi‐Year Application of a Distributed Energy Balance Model

AbstractThe application of a distributed energy balance model over nine years at an hourly time step to a 20 × 20 m grid cell over Glacier Zongo (Bolivia, 16°S) enabled assessment of the climate factors that control the interseasonal and interannual variability of its surface mass balance. The model was validated by comparing the measured and simulated discharge at the outlet, albedo at the Automatic Weather Station, surface state and annual mass balance both glacier‐wide and as a function of altitude. Analysis of the mean monthly energy fluxes highlighted the importance of the meteorological conditions over October and November on the variability of the annual surface mass balance. Two sensitivity analyses are presented, one of the distribution of precipitation over time which maintains a physical coherence between the different meteorological variables and one of the impact of prolonged periods of intense cloud radiative forcing on the surface mass balance. The distribution of precipitation events over time and their associated amounts are the main drivers of the interannual variability of the surface mass balance via an albedo feedback effect. Additionally, prolonged periods of negative cloud radiative forcing, specifically over the month of November, notably reduce the melt rate.

Reconstructed annual glacier surface mass balance in the Ányêmaqên Mountains, Yellow River source, based on snow line altitude

Reconstructed annual glacier surface mass balance in the Ányêmaqên Mountains, Yellow River source, based on snow line altitude

Vatnajökull Mass Loss Under Solar Geoengineering Due to the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

AbstractThe objective of solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is to lower global temperatures, but it may also have adverse side effects. Iceland is situated close to the overturning regions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that warms the North Atlantic area. Hence, this may be one region where reduced irradiance by SAI may not be successful in reducing impacts from greenhouse gas warming. We examine this proposition by estimating how the Icelandic Vatnajökull ice cap (VIC) surface mass balance (SMB) and surface runoff changes in response to greenhouse gas and solar geoengineering scenarios over the period 1982–2089. We use the surface energy and mass balance model SEMIC driven by Earth System Model output under the GeoMIP G4, and CMIP RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios. Geoengineering significantly reduces VIC near‐surface air temperature by 0.4°C, downward longwave radiation by 2.4 Wm−2 and increases snowfall by 4.9 mm yr−1 relative to RCP4.5. During the SAI period 2020–2069, modeled annual mean SMB under G4, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are −0.34 ± 0.18 m yr−1, −0.56 ± 0.06 m yr−1 and −0.66 ± 0.04 m yr−1, respectively; surface runoff reduction under G4 is 6 ± 6% and 7 ± 6% (95% confidence interval uncertainties) compared with that under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which is far smaller than the 20 ± 2% and 32 ± 2% reductions for the Greenland ice sheet. The differences may be attributed to the reinvigoration of AMOC under G4 relative to RCP4.5 which brings more heat to Iceland than Greenland, leading to around half the cooling and longwave radiation reductions than for Greenland.

What is the surface mass balance of Antarctica? An intercomparison of regional climate model estimates

Abstract. We compare the performance of five different regional climate models (RCMs) (COSMO-CLM2, HIRHAM5, MAR3.10, MetUM, and RACMO2.3p2), forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis, in simulating the near-surface climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Antarctica. All models simulate Antarctic climate well when compared with daily observed temperature and pressure, with nudged models matching daily observations slightly better than free-running models. The ensemble mean annual SMB over the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) including ice shelves is 2329±94 Gt yr−1 over the common 1987–2015 period covered by all models. There is large interannual variability, consistent between models due to variability in the driving ERA-Interim reanalysis. Mean annual SMB is sensitive to the chosen period; over our 30-year climatological mean period (1980 to 2010), the ensemble mean is 2483 Gt yr−1. However, individual model estimates vary from 1961±70 to 2519±118 Gt yr−1. The largest spatial differences between model SMB estimates are in West Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula, and around the Transantarctic Mountains. We find no significant trend in Antarctic SMB over either period. Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss is currently equivalent to around 0.5 mm yr−1 of global mean sea level rise (Shepherd et al., 2020), but our results indicate some uncertainty in the SMB contribution based on RCMs. We compare modelled SMB with a large dataset of observations, which, though biased by undersampling, indicates that many of the biases in SMB are common between models. A drifting-snow scheme improves modelled SMB on ice sheet surface slopes with an elevation between 1000 and 2000 m, where strong katabatic winds form. Different ice masks have a substantial impact on the integrated total SMB and along with model resolution are factored into our analysis. Targeting undersampled regions with high precipitation for observational campaigns will be key to improving future estimates of SMB in Antarctica.

Revisiting the 24 year (1994-2018) record of glacier mass budget in the Suru sub-basin, western Himalaya: Overall response and controlling factors

Glacier mass balance time-series measurements have immense importance in comprehending the overall regional hydrology and meteorology of the mountain systems. Such assessments are critical in the Indus River basin (compared to the Ganga and Brahmaputra), which besides having a significant contribution from the glaciers, also exhibits considerable heterogeneity in glacier response. Thus, to quantify this variability in glacier behavior and thereby develop a comprehensive understanding of the past as well as the future evolution of the glaciers, we reconstruct the annual surface mass balance records of 75 glaciers (size >1 km2) in the Suru sub-basin, western Himalaya for the period 1994-2018. We apply a remote sensing-based equilibrium line altitude-mass balance approach, supported by geodetic mass balance estimates (for 18 major glaciers) and limited field measurements. Our findings suggest a persistent negative mass balance of the glaciers (average: -0.69 ± 0.28 m w.e.a-1, cumulative: -16.56 m w.e), varying from -0.46 ± 0.27 (1997) to -0.79 ± 0.28 (2018) m w.e.a-1 during the study period. This overall mass loss coincides with an increased temperature (Tavg increased 0.5 °C; Tmin increased 0.27 °C; Tmax increased 0.06 °C) and reduced precipitation (by 4%) in the valley during 1994-2018, which shows the sensitivity of these glaciers to climate change. Within the Suru sub-basin, smaller, cleaner and high-altitude mountain glaciers of the Ladakh range have experienced greater mass loss (cumulative: -20.88 m w.e) compared to the Greater Himalayan range (cumulative: -13.44 m w.e). We observe latitudinal variability in mass loss in the Western Himalaya, with the highest mass loss rates in the Greater Himalayan Range (>-0.9 m w.e.a-1) and lowest in the Karakoram Range (<-0.1 m w.e.a-1), suggesting a transitional response of the Suru sub-basin glaciers (-0.69 m w.e.a-1). The overall regional picture suggests synchronicity in the mass loss pattern of western Himalayan glaciers, predominantly controlled by the climatic conditions. Meanwhile, the variability in their mass loss rates is attributed to the unique glacier characteristics.

Surface Mass-Balance Gradients From Elevation and Ice Flux Data in the Columbia Basin, Canada

The mass-balance—elevation relation for a given glacier is required for many numerical models of ice flow. Direct measurements of this relation using remotely-sensed methods are complicated by ice dynamics, so observations are currently limited to glaciers where surface mass-balance measurements are routinely made. We test the viability of using the continuity equation to estimate annual surface mass balance between flux-gates in the absence of in situ measurements, on five glaciers in the Columbia Mountains of British Columbia, Canada. Repeat airborne laser scanning surveys of glacier surface elevation, ice penetrating radar surveys and publicly available maps of ice thickness are used to estimate changes in surface elevation and ice flux. We evaluate this approach by comparing modeled to observed mass balance. Modeled mass-balance gradients well-approximate those obtained from direct measurement of surface mass balance, with a mean difference of +6.6 ± 4%. Regressing modeled mass balance, equilibrium line altitudes are on average 15 m higher than satellite-observations of the transient snow line. Estimates of mass balance over flux bins compare less favorably than the gradients. Average mean error (+0.03 ± 0.07 m w.e.) between observed and modeled mass balance over flux bins is relatively small, yet mean absolute error (0.55 ± 0.18 m w.e.) and average modeled mass-balance uncertainty (0.57 m w.e.) are large. Mass conservation, assessed with glaciological data, is respected (when estimates are within 1σ uncertainties) for 84% of flux bins representing 86% of total glacier area. Uncertainty on ice velocity, especially for areas where surface velocity is low (&amp;lt;10 m a−1) contributes the greatest error in estimating ice flux. We find that using modeled ice thicknesses yields comparable modeled mass-balance gradients relative to using observations of ice thickness, but we caution against over-interpreting individual flux-bin mass balances due to large mass-balance residuals. Given the performance of modeled ice thickness and the increasing availability of ice velocity and surface topography data, we suggest that similar efforts to produce mass-balance gradients using modern high-resolution datasets are feasible on larger scales.

Performance of MAR (v3.11) in simulating the drifting-snow climate and surface mass balance of Adélie Land, East Antarctica

Abstract. Drifting snow, or the wind-driven transport of snow particles originating from clouds and the surface below and above 2 m above ground and their concurrent sublimation, is a poorly documented process on the Antarctic ice sheet, which is inherently lacking in most climate models. Since drifting snow mostly results from erosion of surface particles, a comprehensive evaluation of this process in climate models requires a concurrent assessment of simulated drifting-snow transport and the surface mass balance (SMB). In this paper a new version of the drifting-snow scheme currently embedded in the regional climate model MAR (v3.11) is extensively described. Several important modifications relative to previous version have been implemented and include notably a parameterization for drifting-snow compaction of the uppermost snowpack layer, differentiated snow density at deposition between precipitation and drifting snow, and a rewrite of the threshold friction velocity above which snow erosion initiates. Model results at high resolution (10 km) over Adélie Land, East Antarctica, for the period 2004–2018 are presented and evaluated against available near-surface meteorological observations at half-hourly resolution and annual SMB estimates. The evaluation demonstrates that MAR resolves the local drifting-snow frequency and transport up to the scale of the drifting-snow event and captures the resulting observed climate and SMB variability, suggesting that this model version can be used for continent-wide applications.

Surface Mass Balance Models Vs. Stake Observations: A Comparison in the Lake Vostok Region, Central East Antarctica

The surface mass balance (SMB) is very low over the vast East Antarctic Plateau, for example in the Vostok region, where the mean SMB is on the order of 20–35 kg m-2 a-1. The observation and modeling of spatio-temporal SMB variations are equally challenging in this environment. Stake measurements carried out in the Vostok region provide SMB observations over half a century (1970–2019). This unique data set is compared with SMB estimations of the regional climate models RACMO2.3p2 (RACMO) and MAR3.11 (MAR). We focus on the SMB variations over time scales from months to decades. The comparison requires a rigorous assessment of the uncertainty in the stake observations and the spatial scale dependence of the temporal SMB variations. Our results show that RACMO estimates of annual and multi-year SMB agree well with the observations. The regression slope between modelled and observed temporal variations is close to 1.0 for this model. SMB simulations by MAR are affected by a positive bias which amounts to 6 kg m-2 a-1 at Vostok station and 2 kg m-2 a-1 along two stake profiles between Lake Vostok and Ridge B. None of the models is capable to reproduce the seasonal distributions of SMB and precipitation. Model SMB estimates are used in assessing the ice-mass balance and sea-level contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet by the input-output method. Our results provide insights into the uncertainty contribution of the SMB models to such assessments.

Modeling the impacts of climate change on mass balance and discharge of Eklutna Glacier, Alaska, 1985–2019

AbstractAlaska's largest city, Anchorage, depends on Eklutna Glacier meltwater for drinking water and hydropower generation; however, the 29 km2 glacier is rapidly retreating. We used a temperature-index model forced with local weather station data to reconstruct the glacier's mass balance for the period 1985–2019 and quantify the impacts of glacier change on discharge. Model calibration involved a novel combination of in situ, geodetic mass-balance measurements and observed snowlines from satellite imagery. A resulting ensemble of 250 best-fitting model parameters was used to model mass balance and discharge. Eklutna Glacier experienced a significant negative trend (−0.31 m w.e. decade−1) in annual mean surface mass balance (mean: −0.62 ± 0.06 m w.e.). The day of the year when 95% of annual melt occurs was five days later in 2011–19 than in 1985–93, demonstrating a prolongation of melt season (May–September). Modeled mean specific discharge increased at 0.14 m decade−1, indicating peak water, the year when annual discharge reaches a maximum due to glacier retreat, has not been reached. Four of the five highest discharge years occurred since 2000. Increases in discharge quantity and melt season length require water resource managers consider future decreased discharge as the glacier continues to shrink.

The regional-scale surface mass balance of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, over the period 2005–2014, derived from airborne radar soundings and neutron probe measurements

Abstract. We derive recent surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from airborne radar observations along the iSTAR traverse (2013, 2014) at Pine Island Glacier (PIG), West Antarctica. Ground-based neutron probe measurements provide information of snow and firn density with depth at 22 locations and were used to date internal annual reflection layers. The 2005 layer was traced for a total distance of 2367 km to determine annual mean SMB for the period 2005–2014. Using complementary SMB estimates from two regional climate models, RACMO2.3p2 and MAR, and a geostatistical kriging scheme, we determine a regional-scale SMB distribution with similar main characteristics to that determined for the period 1985–2009 in previous studies. Local departures exist for the northern PIG slopes, where the orographic precipitation shadow effect appears to be more pronounced in our observations, and the southward interior, where the SMB gradient is more pronounced in previous studies. We derive total mass inputs of 79.9±19.2 and 82.1±19.2 Gt yr−1 to the PIG basin based on complementary ASIRAS–RACMO and ASIRAS–MAR SMB estimates, respectively. These are not significantly different to the value of 78.3±6.8 Gt yr−1 for the period 1985–2009. Thus, there is no evidence of a secular trend at decadal scales in total mass input to the PIG basin. We note, however, that our estimated uncertainty is more than twice the uncertainty for the 1985–2009 estimate on total mass input. Our error analysis indicates that uncertainty estimates on total mass input are highly sensitive to the selected krige methodology and assumptions made on the interpolation error, which we identify as the main cause for the increased uncertainty range compared to the 1985–2009 estimates.