Annual Population Growth Rate Research Articles

Variability and correlations among vital rates and their influence on population growth in mule and black‐tailed deer

AbstractTo reverse range‐wide population declines, managers of black‐tailed and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) require information on the vital rates and life stages most influential to population growth to target effective management actions. We extracted black‐tailed and mule deer vital rates from a range‐wide literature review and used hierarchical models to summarize vital rates, their variability, and how they correlate with one another. We then used matrix models and life‐stage simulation analysis to determine the individual vital rates that contributed most to annual population growth rate (i.e., lambda). Annual adult female survival explained the greatest amount of variation (62%) in lambda. Annual juvenile survival explained 44% of the variation in lambda, whereas summer or winter juvenile survival by themselves were far less informative. Winter fawn:doe ratios, a metric often collected by management agencies, explained only 10% of the variation in lambda. Given an adult female survival of 0.84, our simulations estimated a lambda of 1.0 (95% credible interval = 0.88–1.14), indicating equal probability that a population would increase or decrease. Simulations further indicated that given adult survival rates <70%, the population would always decline, but as survival increased lambda increased linearly. In contrast, estimates of lambda plateaued when annual juvenile survival reached approximately 0.5, indicating higher survival rates yielded diminishing returns to population stability. Using simulated values within the observed range of vital rate values across the species' geographical distribution, the mean lambda was 0.975 and in 61% of the simulations, lambda was <1. After 20 years, we estimated that this distribution of lambda values would cause populations to decrease in 92% of instances with a mean decrease of 44%. Our results align with observed declines in mule deer populations throughout their range over recent decades and indicate that these trends will continue until management can improve survival of adult females.

Use of capture–recapture models to evaluate abundance and dynamics of a stocked Muskellunge population

AbstractTo evaluate the success of a stocking program in Fox Lake, Minnesota, adult (≥76 cm total length) Muskellunge were captured with large nearshore trap nets and individually marked with passive integrated transponder tags during the 2011–2013 and 2015–2017 spawning seasons; then, capture–recapture data were analyzed at two different time scales. Despite substantial sampling effort, daily capture histories within a single season only supported closed‐population abundance estimates for both sexes in half the years; estimates were imprecise, and there was evidence of trap shyness or violation of the short‐term closure assumption in some years. Jolly–Seber models over all years supported relatively precise abundance estimates for both sexes every year, as well as estimates of annual survival, recruitment, and population growth rate. Link–Barker Jolly–Seber models provided estimates of population growth rate λ ≈ 1 indicating that per‐capita annual recruitment rates of only about 0.15–0.20 were adequate to maintain the adult population given the high annual apparent survival rates of 0.80 for adult females and 0.89 for adult males. POPAN Jolly–Seber models revealed that about 80 adult females and 90–126 adult males were vulnerable to capture each year in the 385 ha lake, and about 16–18 fish of each sex recruited to the adult population annually. This study illustrates the importance of open‐population models with multiple years of data to evaluate the abundance and population dynamics of a low‐density, long‐lived species.

Study of the patterns of variations in ice lakes and the factors influencing these changes on the southeastern Tibetan plateau

The ice lakes in the southeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau have exhibited a pronounced expansion against the backdrop of global warming, consequently amplifying the local risk of ice lake outburst disasters. However, surveys of ice lake changes in the entire region have consistently been incomplete due to the prevalent high cloud density. On the basis of Landsat remote sensing images and the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform, in this study, the full convolution segmentation algorithm is utilized to accurately and comprehensively map the regional distribution of ice lakes in southeastern Tibet at consistent time intervals in 1993, 2008, and 2023. Furthermore, the formation, distribution, and dynamic changes in these ice lakes are investigated. The numbers of ice lakes discovered in 1993, 2008, and 2023 were 2520, 3198, and 3877, respectively. These lakes covered areas of approximately 337.64 ± 36.86 km2, 363.92 ± 40.90 km2, and 395.74 ± 22.72 km2, respectively. These ice lakes are located primarily between altitudes of 4442 m and 4909 m. The total area experienced an annual growth rate of approximately 0.57 % from 1993 to 2023. In the present study, the long-term variations in ice lakes in each district and county are examined. These findings indicate that between 1993 and 2023, the expansion of ice lakes was more pronounced in regions with a large number of marine glaciers. Notably, Basu County presented the highest annual growth rate of the ice lake population, at 6.23 %, followed by Bomi County, at 4.28 %, and finally, Zayul County, at 2.94 %. The accelerated shrinkage of marine glaciers induced by global warming is the primary driver behind the expansion of ice lakes. The results obtained from this research will enhance our overall understanding of the complex dynamics and mechanisms that govern the formation of ice lakes while also offering valuable perspectives on the potential risks linked to their expansion in this particular area.

Analysis of the population viability of Rhea pennata in Peru

In this work, a population viability analysis (PVA) is conducted on the population of Rhea pennata, a bird categorized as Critically Endangered (CR), with an estimated population size of 350 individuals in Peru. The data were analyzed using VORTEX 9.6 software, and eight scenarios and combinations were modeled to determine the annual population growth rate under the influence of anthropogenic, demographic, environmental, and genetic factors. The results indicate that the Rhea pennata population is not viable, with a negative population growth rate (r= −0.11), meaning the population decreases by 11% per year. A combined effect of anthropogenic factors, such as egg collection, genetic factors like inbreeding, and environmental factors such as intense snowfalls, further reduces the growth rate (r= −0.18). In this scenario, the probability of extinction occurs in approximately 50 years. The effect of inbreeding in an adult population of 50 individuals in a fragmented habitat would lead to extinction in approximately 25 to 30 years. The only scenario where the population is viable in the long term involves repopulation, requiring the release of 38 population groups over a period of 15 years in an area of approximately 27000 km2, which must be under some conservation measure, such as protected natural areas or other area-based conservation measures.

A study on regional distribution and changes in the Korean dentist workforce

Purpose: Despite previous research showing that there is an excess of dentists in Korea, there are demands to increase the number of dentists, with some local governments requesting the establishment of dental colleges and dental hospitals. Therefore, this study aims to propose long-term policy directions regarding the supply and demand of dentists in Korea by analyzing the distribution of dentists relative to the population and the current status of dentists by region.Methods: This study used public data. WHO's key indicator, active dentists per 100,000 population, was calculated by year, and differences in active dentists by region were analyzed using ANOVA.Results: From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of the number of active dentists per 100,000 people was 2.39%, which was higher than the average annual population growth rate(0.10%)(Table 1). The regional averages were ‘gu’ 66.52±55.78, ‘si’ 38.50±10.87, and ‘gun’ 29.91±7.35, showing a significant difference (p<0.0001), confirming the existence of a gap.Conclusions: The supply and demand of health care professionals is the most important factor for the stable operation of the health care system. To resolve regional differences, it is desirable to utilize existing dentists rather than creating new dentists.

Effects of Urban Growth and Urbanization on the Social Environment: Case Study Old and Modern Cities of Yemen

Aim: This research was designed to study the effects of urban growth and urbanization on the social environment (Study of the state of growth and social changes in the old and modern cities of Yemen an example). Background: Yemenis have a rich history of urban centers, which have played a crucial role in trade, crafts, industries, and science. These cities have become distinct areas of cultural development, economic polarization, and cultural radiation. They are considered crucibles for social culturalintegration, nurseries for political growth, and areas for the development of national consciousness. The history of Yemen's cities and urban centers demonstrates the close link between trade, delivery routes, political governance centers, and city growth and development. Some Yemeni historical cities have played a vital role before Islam as political capitals, educators, and seaports. Cities have emerged as a result of the desire to coexist and achieve stability, reflecting spiritual, material, social, and political conditions. The growth of cities and architecture is a reflection of these changes. Methodology: The physical changes in the Republic of Yemen and the identification of the city of Aden were studied by reviewing the studies that monitored these changes and their social, economic and population effects. The study relied on secondary data in the first place. Conclusion: Yemen's population growth rate in 2004 was low at 3.01%, but it remains high due to economic and social developments and changes demographic factors such as fertility, mortality, and migration the growth rate was decreased at 2.20%. The 2004 General Population and Housing Census revealed that the resident population is spread across various governorates, with Ta'izz, Hodeidah, and Ibb having the highest proportions. The General Census of Population and Establishments revealed changes in the relative weight of the provincial population between the 1994 and 2004 censuses, with some governorates experiencing an increase in population relative to the population, while others experienced a decrease. The annual growth rate of the resident population was 3.0%, and the proportion of the young age group increased from 46.2% in 1994 to 51.5% in 2004. The gender ratio in Yemen is 104, with some governorates having a higher proportion of species due to urbanization (male than more than female), employment opportunities, or male labor migration. The Central Statistical Agency predicts that population growth will remain high over the next 20 years, with a natural increase rate of 3.01%. The proportion of married people in the population is higher for both sexes, possibly due to increased living costs and lack of adequate housing.

Roe Deer, Lithuania’s Smallest and Most Abundant Cervid

A review of 113 scientific and other publications on the smallest and most abundant deer in Lithuania, the roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), is presented, along with an analysis based on compound annual population growth rates of population numbers, hunting bags, and roadkill. This review covers the species’ history in the country from the last glaciation onwards, the changes in numbers from 1934 to 2023, hunting bag changes from 1965 to 2022, roadkill numbers from 2002 to 2022, data on roe deer reproduction, habitat selection, genetic diversity, pathogens, and damage to forest stands. It also provides an overview of species management and selection for trophies. Despite the exponential increase in roe deer numbers since 1990 and the dominance of this species in roadkill, even on urban roads, the number and density of animals and the damage they cause to forest stands are relatively low compared to other European countries. Within the observed period, drops in numbers were related to harsh winters in 1969/1970 and 1995/1996. Poaching, especially coinciding with weakened enforcement during the period of political–economic transition in the early 1990s, has also had a negative impact on population numbers, as have recent increases in the number of large predators. Population growth over the recent period does not correlate with hunting mortality, which has remained stable at an average of 16.9% since 2002.

Stage-Specific Demographic Effects of Hydrologic Variation in a Stream Salamander.

AbstractWe lack a strong understanding of how organisms with complex life histories respond to climate variation. Many stream-associated species have multistage life histories that are likely to influence the demographic consequences of floods and droughts. However, tracking stage-specific demographic responses requires high-resolution, long-term data that are rare. We used 8 years of capture-recapture data for the headwater stream salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus to quantify the effects of flooding and drying magnitude on stage-specific vital rates and population growth. Drying reduced larval recruitment but increased the probability of metamorphosis (i.e., adult recruitment). Flooding reduced adult recruitment but had no effect on larval recruitment. Larval and adult survival declined with flooding but were unaffected by drying. Annual population growth rates (λ) declined with flooding and drying. Lambda also declined over the study period (2012-2021), although mean λ was 1.0 over this period. Our results indicate that G. porphyriticus populations are resilient to hydrologic variation because of compensatory effects on recruitment of larvae versus adults (i.e., reproduction vs. metamorphosis). Complex life cycles may enable this resilience to climate variation by creating opportunities for compensatory demographic responses across stages. However, more frequent and intense hydrologic variation in the latter half of this study contributed to a decline in λ over time, suggesting that increasing environmental variability poses a threat even when demographic compensation occurs.

Decadal Descriptive Analysis of Health Status, Hospitalization, Intensive Care Admissions, and Mortality Rates Among the Elderly Population in Turkey (2012-2022)

Objective: This study aimed to analyse decadal changes in health status, hospitalisation, intensive care admissions, and mortality rates among the Turkish elderly population from 2012 to 2022, focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Material and Methods: A retrospective study obtained data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) and Health Statistics Yearbooks. Descriptive statistics were used to elucidate healthcare utilisation patterns and mortality profiles among individuals aged ≥ 65 years. Results: Analysis showed that self-reported "Very good/Good" health status peaked at 70.7% in 2012, decreased to 60.9% in 2019, and rebounded to 63.4% in 2022. The hospitalisation rates for the 65-74 age group increased from 17.5% in 2012 to 20.2% in 2021, with males (20.2%) having higher rates than females (16.0%) in 2021. ICU admission rates escalated during the pandemic, reaching 3.7% in 2021 for ages 65-74 and 4.7% for 75+ years, before declining in 2022 to 3.0% and 4.0%, respectively. The annual population growth rate has significantly decreased from 21.7 per thousand in 2012 to 5.5 per thousand in 2022, whereas the crude death rate has remained stable, dropping from 7.1 per thousand in 2012 to 5.1 per thousand in 2022. Conclusion: This study highlights fluctuating health perceptions among the elderly exacerbated by the pandemic. The enduring gender disparities in health status and healthcare utilisation underscore the need for gender-sensitive policies. The consistent yet stable mortality rates amidst demographic shifts emphasise the resilience of Turkey's healthcare system. These findings provide critical insights into geriatric care policies and post-pandemic health care strategies.

Analysis of Demographic Changes and Changes in Public Consumption Patterns in the Tourism Industry in Denpasar City

This research delves into the dynamic interplay between demographic changes and public consumption patterns within the tourism industry of Denpasar City. A sample of 260 participants, strategically stratified across key demographic variables, provides a nuanced understanding of the city's evolving population dynamics and the spending behaviors of residents and tourists. The findings reveal a mean annual population growth rate of 2.5%, a notable shift towards a younger demographic, and a rich cultural diversity within the city. Tourist expenditure, with a mean spending of USD 80 per visitor, illustrates key allocation trends across accommodation, dining, and activities. Regression analysis demonstrates significant correlations between demographic variables (age, income, cultural background, and educational attainment) and spending patterns. The results underscore the importance of adaptive strategies for stakeholders to cater to diverse preferences and foster sustainable tourism development in Denpasar City.

Heating electrification in cold climates: Invest in grid flexibility

One strategy to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in end-use sectors such as building heat is to switch from fossil fuels to electricity. To date, electricity consumption follows a regular and predictable pattern; however, electrifying building heat, which is driven by ambient temperature, causes this pattern to change. Previous work has not fully addressed the implications of building heat electrification on the timing and magnitude of peak demands and on flexibility requirements of the electricity grid. In this work, a high-resolution heating demand model, featuring building stock turnover forecasts, is developed, and applied to British Columbia. The study determines energy, capacity, and flexibility requirements by computing regional energy load profiles for space and water heat. Six scenarios were developed to examine the decarbonization potential in the residential and commercial building sector, considering increased heat pump adoption, building envelope energy efficiency improvements, and the implementation of building energy codes. With an emphasis on building stock improvements, 90% heat pump penetration results in only 6% increase in electrical energy even with an annual population growth rate of 1.1%; however, this scenario leads to a 37% increase in peak electricity demand. Over the time-period considered, building energy codes and retrofit rates contribute relatively little to achieving net-zero emissions in the buildings sector, while building heat electrification has significant impacts on future flexibility requirements of the electricity grid.

Fuzzy multiple regressions for Cross-Section and Panel data

A classical multiple regression is a framework defined a priori verifying several limiting assumptions and easily misused. We propose a fuzzy alternative approach to classical multiple regressions for cross-sectional and panel data. As illustration, we estimate and analyze the effect of the annual GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate and annual population growth rate on poverty in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

No long‐term effect of black bear removal on elk calf recruitment in the southern Appalachians

AbstractIn 2001 and 2002, 52 elk (Cervus canadensis; 21 males, 31 females), originally obtained from Elk Island National Park, Alberta, Canada, were transported and released into Cataloochee Valley in the northeastern portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM, Park), North Carolina, USA. The annual population growth rate (λ) was negative (0.996, 95% CI = 0.945–1.047) and predation by black bears (Ursus americanus) on elk calves was identified as an important determinant of population growth. From 2006 to 2008, 49 bears from the primary elk calving area (i.e., Cataloochee Valley) were trapped and translocated about 70 km to the southwestern portion of the Park just prior to elk calving. Per capita recruitment (i.e., the number of calves produced per adult female that survive to 1 year of age) increased from 0.306 prior to bear translocation (2001–2005) to 0.544 during years when bears were translocated (2006–2008) and λ increased to 1.118 (95% CI = 1.096–1.140). Our objective was to determine whether per capita calf recruitment rates after bear removal (2009–2019) at Cataloochee were similar to the higher rates estimated during bear removal (i.e., long‐term response) or if they returned to rates before bear removal (i.e., short‐term response), and how those rates compared with recruitment from portions of our study area where bears were not relocated. We documented 419 potential elk calving events and monitored 129 yearling and adult elk from 2001 to 2019. Known‐fate models based on radio‐telemetry and observational data supported calf recruitment returning to pre‐2006 levels at Cataloochee (short‐term response); recruitment of Cataloochee elk before and after bear relocation was lower (0.184) than during bear relocation (0.492). Recruitment rates of elk outside the removal area during the bear relocation period (0.478) were similar to before and after rates (0.420). In the Cataloochee Valley, cause‐specific annual calf mortality rates due to predation by bears were 0.319 before, 0.120 during, and 0.306 after bear relocation. In contrast, the cause‐specific annual mortality rate of calves in areas where bears were not relocated was 0.033 after the bear relocation period, with no bear predation on calves before or during bear relocation. The mean annual population growth rate for all monitored elk was 1.062 (95% CI = 0.979–1.140) after bear relocation based on the recruitment and survival data. Even though the effects of bear removal were temporary, the relocations were effective in achieving a short‐term increase in elk recruitment, which was important for the reintroduction program given that the elk population was small and vulnerable to extirpation.

An Investigation of the Densification Process of the Residential Areas of Dhaka

Dhaka is one of the most densely populated megacities of the world with demography of over 20 million people. With an annual population growth rate of 4.2% Dhaka is set to face the challenges of habitat crisis, lack of communal facilities, and constant pressure on transportation and infrastructure. In response to the demand of the rapidly growing population and scarcity of developable land, urban consolidation through vertical expansion was carried out without any proper diagnosis of the sites or any contextually appropriate densification policy. The unguided nature of densification not only brought a transformation in the urban landscape but also in the built form itself by infusing the concept of compactness into them. The compactness of multi-storied dwellings is often found to compromise with the livability condition posing questions on residential sustainability. Drawing on three residential areas of varied density, age and, settlement type this paper, therefore attempts to investigate the trend of densification of the densifying residential areas of Dhaka in terms of the spatial quality of the built form its effect on the built environment. Key methods of data collection employed extensive field surveys, observations, measurements, map analysis, satellite imagery analysis, interviews with officials, and block surveys for detailed analysis of FAR, land coverage in plot and block level, height, land use pattern, and other design aspects of the built form. The survey findings were analyzed through descriptive statistical methods including frequency distribution and presented through tables, charts, and cross-analysis charts contributing to a better understanding of the ongoing trend of densification. The findings indicate that the spatial quality of the built environment was largely compromised in terms of inadequate ventilation and solar access, loss of acoustic and visual privacy, obstruction of view, and leftover unusable open spaces. However, the interior dwelling spaces conforming to the acceptable standard is suggestive of a moderate degree of urban consolidation. By investigating how urban densification has transformed the urban fabric and residential environment, the study reveals the unintended consequences of unguided densification in Dhaka.

Geospatial analytics of driving mechanism of land subsidence in Gulf Coast of Texas, United States

Land subsidence has been an ongoing issue for over a century along the Gulf Coast of Texas in the United States. This study assesses and models the factors contributing to land subsidence covering fifty-six (56) counties along the Gulf of Mexico coastline from Louisiana to the border of Mexico, approximately 300,000 km2. Geospatial statistical techniques and regression models were employed to investigate and predict the fundamental causes of land subsidence by integrating multiple datasets such as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) (147 stations), groundwater extraction (78,420 wells), hydrocarbon production (84,424 wells), precipitation, and population growth. In the last two decades, the overall population rose by 33 % and the compound annual population growth rate increased from 2.08 to 4.10 % in Montgomery, Waller, Fort Bend, and Chambers counties. Emerging hotspot analysis reveals that the groundwater level is persistently declining and the regression model (R2 = 0.92) tested over Harris County predicts that the population growth significantly contributes to land subsidence in this region. The groundwater withdrawal rate is increased from 23 to 96.6 billion gallons in Harris, Montgomery, and Fort Bend counties in the last two decades. A prolonged drought from 2010 to 2015 due to low precipitation affected all fifty-six counties. Oil production increased eightfold and a high extraction rate of 19.5 to 40.1 million bbl/yr of oil in Karnes County was recorded within the last 20 years. The regression model (R2 = 0.73) over this county suggests that oil extraction is a primary contributing factor to the observed subsidence. Although the gas extraction rates for all counties are decreasing over time, some counties in the southern part of the Gulf Coast Aquifer show relatively higher extraction rates. For the first time, this research determines that all fifty-six counties along the Gulf Coast of Texas are undergoing land subsidence and experiencing high population growth, groundwater withdrawal, and hydrocarbon extraction.

Demographic and socioeconomic characterization of the Immediate Region of Teófilo Otoni, MG between 1991 and 2010

The Immediate Geographical Region of Teófilo Otoni (RGIm Teófilo Otoni) is composed of 27 municipalities and reveals itself in different demographic and infrastructural conditions from the other regions of the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. In this sense, the objective of this article is to describe and evaluate the main demographic indicators for the municipalities that make up RGIm Teófilo Otoni between 1991 and 2010 for the purposes of general characterization based on this new spatial arrangement. The database used was obtained from repositories of planning and research institutions, such as the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Ministry of Health (DATASUS), and the João Pinheiro Foundation (FJP), and allowed the measurement of the following variables: total urban and rural population; distribution of the total population by age group according to sex; degree of urbanization; total fertility rate; annual geometric population growth rate; life expectancy at birth; mortality rate, and Municipal Human Development Index between the years 1991 and 2010, in addition to the migratory dynamics for the year 2010. The characterization allowed us to identify that, although there have been improvements in the demographic and socioeconomic conditions of this portion of the territory of Minas Gerais, the values found remained lagged in comparison to other regions of Minas Gerais. The perspective is that the data presented may help to understand some socio-spatial dynamics for a portion of the state that still lacks research and/or technical-scientific information.

Evaluating the importance of individual heterogeneity in reproduction to Weddell seal population dynamics using integral projection models.

Identifying and accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity in vital rates in demographic models is important for estimating population-level vital rates and identifying diverse life-history strategies, but much less is known about how this individual heterogeneity influences population dynamics. We aimed to understand how the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproductive and survival rates influenced population dynamics using vital rates from a Weddell seal population by altering the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction, which also altered the distribution of individual survival rates through the incorporation of our estimate of the correlation between the two rates and assessing resulting changes in population growth. We constructed an integral projection model (IPM) structured by age and reproductive state using estimates of vital rates for a long-lived mammal that has recently been shown to exhibit large individual heterogeneity in reproduction. Using output from the IPM, we evaluated how population dynamics changed with different underlying distributions of unobserved individual heterogeneity in reproduction. Results indicate that the changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction cause very small changes in the population growth rate and other population metrics. The largest difference in the estimated population growth rate resulting from changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity was less than 1%. Our work highlights the differing importance of individual heterogeneity at the population level compared to the individual level. Although individual heterogeneity in reproduction may result in large differences in the lifetime fitness of individuals, changing the proportion of above- or below-average breeders in the population results in much smaller differences in annual population growth rate. For a long-lived mammal with stable and high adult-survival that gives birth to a single offspring, individual heterogeneity in reproduction has a limited effect on population dynamics. We posit that the limited effect of individual heterogeneity on population dynamics may be due to canalization of life-history traits.

Demographic Development and Social-Demographic Policy in Zambia

The purpose of the study was to identify trends in demographic development and features of the socio-demographic policy of the Republic of Zambia in the context of the demographic transition. The main research method is the statistical analysis of the demographic data of the current registration and population censuses of the Republic. The sources of information are demographic statistics and demographic surveys presented in the materials of national agencies and international organizations of the UN system. Zambia is on the path of the demographic transition, but so far remains one of the youngest countries in the world in terms of the average age of the population. The annual population growth rate remains significant at the level of 2.5-3%. The country maintains a high birth rate. As a large cohort of young people enter their reproductive years, the population of the Republic is expected to double in the next 25 years. The demographic situation may exacerbate some socio-economic problems, including an increase in demand for jobs, a shortage of medical care and social services. In this situation, the state socio-demographic policy of Zambia, although focused on the UN Sustainable Development Goals until 2030, has not yet fully responded to demographic changes. By 2030, the authorities of the Republic of Zambia have set the achievement of a prosperous nation with an average income as the goal of the country’s development by 2030. In this context, the health of the workforce remains an important component. It is considered that a healthy workforce will allow the country to increase productivity and gain a significant demographic dividend.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of urban and rural water scarcity and its influencing factors across the world

Water scarcity is essentially caused by the spatiotemporal mismatch of water availability and water withdrawal. However, existing studies are still insufficient in revealing the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and rural–urban differences of global water scarcity and its influencing factors. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap. From 1960 to 2014, both of the water-scarce population and its proportion in the total population showed a growth trend. The annual growth rate of water-scarce urban population was higher than that of water-scarce rural population, but the standard deviation of monthly water-scarce rural population was higher than that of water-scarce urban population. The proportion of water-scarce population was high and also variable across months in the middle- and low-latitude countries of the Northern Hemisphere, such as Pakistan, Mexico and Iran. Expansion of water-scarce areas had contributed to 60% of the global water-scarce population growth, while the relative contribution of population increases in the initial water-scarce catchments was about 40%. As for the expansion of water-scarce areas, the relative contributions of irrigation, domestic, and industrial water withdrawal were 35.28%, 24.28%, and 17.02%, respectively. In most high-latitude countries of the Northern Hemisphere, industrial water withdrawal was the main influencing factor. In several Southern Hemisphere countries, domestic water withdrawal was the most influential factor. In most Asian countries, the impact of irrigation water withdrawal was considerable. In addition, the impacts of water availability and irrigation water withdrawal were greatest in July, while the impacts of domestic and industrial water withdrawal were greatest in December. The relative contributions of water availability and irrigation water withdrawal were highly variable in Iran, Pakistan and India. The monthly variability in industrial water withdrawal was high in European countries. There was high variability in all influencing factors in China and some Central Asian countries. According to the variability of water scarcity and influencing factors, water-scarce countries should implement effective water resources management, based on the potential solutions such as the construction of water conservancy facilities, virtual water trade, and improving the efficiency of water use and recycling.

Obtaining Sustainable Population Structures for the Management of Red Deer

Cervus elaphus populations are spreading and growing in many parts of Europe. This growth can have detrimental effects on biodiversity and ecosystem function. Successful strategies to manage large herbivores require reliable information on density and population trends. This paper presents a methodology to achieve a sustainable distribution of red deer by age and sex classes over time. Instead of traditional algebraic methods, the method consists of a simple iterative process that uses convergence to obtain the dominant eigenvalue and eigenvector of the biological matrix from an initial population. This eigenvalue represents the annual growth rate of the population, and the eigenvector represents the ideal age and sex class distribution of the population. The method has been applied to a fenced preserve in the province of Toledo, Spain. An annual population growth rate of 1.63 (dominant eigenvalue of the biological matrix) was obtained from an initial population and the biological matrix of the deer on the preserve. The convergence of this rate occurred in year 14, but the carrying capacity allows for a population close to the population in year 17 according to the prediction, which is therefore considered to be the year when the ideal population distribution is achieved. This methodology allows managers to numerically justify how to control population growth to preserve biodiversity and sustainability.