Annual Occurrence Research Articles

The past, present, and future for constitutional ring chromosomes: A report of the international consortium for human ring chromosomes.

SummaryHuman ring chromosomes (RCs) are rare diseases with an estimated newborn incidence of 1/50,000 and an annual occurrence of 2,800 patients globally. Over the past 60 years, banding cytogenetics, fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), chromosome microarray analysis (CMA), and whole-genome sequencing (WGS) has been used to detect an RC and further characterize its genomic alterations. Ring syndrome featuring sever growth retardation and variable intellectual disability has been considered as general clinical presentations for all RCs due to the cellular losses from the dynamic mosaicism of RC instability through mitosis. Cytogenomic heterogeneity ranging from simple complete RCs to complex rearranged RCs and variable RC intolerance with different relative frequencies have been observed. Clinical heterogeneity, including chromosome-specific deletion and duplication syndromes, gene-related organ and tissue defects, cancer predisposition to different types of tumors, and reproductive failure, has been reported in the literature. However, the patients with RCs reported in the literature accounted for less than 1% of its occurrence. Current diagnostic practice lacks laboratory standards for analyzing cellular behavior and genomic imbalances of RCs to evaluate the compound effects on patients. Under-representation of clinical cases and lack of comprehensive diagnostic analysis make it a challenge for evidence-based interpretation of clinico-cytogenomic correlations and recommendation of follow-up clinical management. Given recent advancements in genomic technologies and organized efforts by international collaborations and patient advocacy organizations, the prospective of standardized cytogenomic diagnosis and evidence-based clinical management for all patients with RCs could be achieved at an unprecedented global scale.

Rainfall-induced hydroplaning risk over road infrastructure of the continental USA.

Extreme rainfall causes transient ponding on roads, which increases the risk of vehicle accidents due to hydroplaning (HP), a phenomenon characterized by reduced friction between the pavement surface and the tires of moving vehicles. Before mitigation plans are drawn, it is important to first assess the spatio-temporal patterns of hydroplaning risk (HpR). This study quantifies HpR over the entire continental USA considering the coupled role of precipitation characteristics and pavement properties. Results show the southern United States to be a primary hotspot of HpR. About 22% of road sections experiencing HpR exhibit an increasing trend in the annual occurrence of HP events with time, indicating a riskier future ahead. Alarmingly, road sections that either experience higher HpR or increasing trend in annual occurrences of HP events are the ones with sizeable traffic. These results emphasize the need to prioritize HP-aware road design, traffic management, and signage in regions with high or fast-evolving risks.

Probabilistic projections of increased heat stress driven by climate change

The Heat Index is a metric that quantifies heat exposure in human beings. Here, using probabilistic emission projections, we show that changes in the Heat Index driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions will increase global exposure to dangerous environments in the coming decades. Even if the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C is met, the exposure to dangerous Heat Index levels will likely increase by 50–100% across much of the tropics and increase by a factor of 3–10 in many regions throughout the midlatitudes. Without emissions reductions more aggressive than those considered possible by our statistical projection, it is likely that by 2100, many people living in tropical regions will be exposed to dangerously high Heat Index values during most days of each typical year, and that the kinds of deadly heat waves that have been rarities in the midlatitudes will become annual occurrences.

Long-Term Investigation of Aerosols in the Urmia Lake Region in the Middle East by Ground-Based and Satellite Data in 2000–2021

Dried lake beds are some of the largest sources of dust in the world and have caused environmental problems in the surrounding areas in recent decades. In the present work, we studied the monthly and annual occurrence of dust storms at selected weather stations around Urmia Lake in northwestern (NW) Iran. Furthermore, we investigated the variations in the daily aerosol optical depth (AOD at 550 nm) and the Ångström exponent (at 412/470 nm), as well as the vertical profile of the total aerosol extinction coefficient and AOD at 532 nm, using space-borne MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Aqua and CALIPSO Satellite LiDAR data over the Urmia Lake region (36–39°N, 44–47°E). The monthly variations of AOD550 and AOD532 for the regions 37–39°N and 46–59°E were compared, and it was found that the CALIPSO AOD532 and MODIS AOD532 (reconstructed using the Ångström exponent) were in good agreement. In general, the dust storms during 2000–2021 increased the AOD550 above average around the Urmia Lake. The vertical profile of aerosols showed that the largest contribution to total aerosol loading over the Urmia Lake was from 1.5–3 km, 1.5–4 km, 1.5–5 km, and 1.5–3 km during winter, spring, summer, and autumn seasons, respectively.

Environmental drivers of the occurrence and abundance of the Irukandji jellyfish (Carukia barnesi).

Understanding the links between species and their environment is critical for species management. This is particularly true for organisms of medical and/or economic significance. The ‘Irukandji’ jellyfish (Carukia barnesi) is well known for its small size, cryptic nature, and highly venomous sting. Being the namesake of the Irukandji syndrome, contact with this marine stinger often leads to hospitalization and can be fatal. Consequently, the annual occurrence of this organism is believed to cost the Australian government an estimated $AUD3 billion annually in medical costs and losses for tourism. Despite its economic importance the logistical difficulties related to surveying C.barnesi in situ has led to a paucity of knowledge regarding its ecology and significantly impeded management strategies to date. In this study, we use six years of direct C. barnesi capture data to explore patterns pertaining to the annual occurrence and abundance of this species in the nearshore waters of the Cairns coast. We provide novel insights into trends in medusae aggregations and size distribution and primarily focus on the potential role of environmental drivers for annual C. barnesi occurrence patterns. Using a two-part hurdle model, eight environmental parameters were investigated over four time periods for associations with records of medusa presence and abundance. Final models showed a small amount of variation in medusa presence and abundance patterns could be accounted for by long-term trends pertaining to rainfall and wind direction. However, the assessed environmental parameters could not explain high annual variation or site location effects. Ultimately best-fit models had very low statistical inference power explaining between 16 and 20% of the variance in the data, leaving approximately 80% of all variation in medusa presence and abundance unexplained.

Simulation of dust activities in the southern high latitudes of Mars

Annual occurrence of dust activities in the southern high-latitude region around the southern solstice period have been observed for many Martian years. Theses dust events occur near the southern cap-edge region and play an important role in the observed dust climate. However, they generally cannot be simulated in the existing Mars general circulation models. In this study, an approach of parameterization has been applied to the Mars climate model MarsWRF in which the dust lifting threshold stress is adjusted in according to the surface temperature difference between the regolith and the ice in the southern polar region. By this approach, dust events in the southern cap-edge region have been simulated around the southern solstice period. As a result, the simulated temperature in the southern high-latitude region is increased and the resulting vertical temperature profile is closer to that from observation. In addition, westward propagating dust events as observed in a previous study have been simulated, with a propagating speed similar to that observed. Results of the numerical experiments suggest that the flow associated with the sublimation of the CO 2 ice in the southern cap edge is important to the occurrence and propagation of these dust events in this region. • Dust activities near the southern cap edge have been simulated with the interactive dust approach. • A parameterization scheme of cap-edge dust is proposed. • Generation of cap-edge dust is dependent on ice-regolith temperature difference. • Sublimation flow is important to the generation of cap-edge dust.

The Climate Characteristics of the Northeast China Cold Vortex against the Background of Global Warming

In this study, by using the ERA5 data of the atmospheric circulation field that was re-analyzed by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), we revealed the features of the Northeast China Cold Vortex (NCCV) from 1950 to 2020 (including active days, occurrence time of NCCV processes, and process durations). This study focused on a comparative analysis of the differences in the NCCV’s climate characteristics in the cold and warm periods to help future predictions. The results revealed the following: From 1950 to 2020, the NCCV occurred 2961 times on 9782 days. The average annual occurrence time of NCCV processes, annual average of cold vortex days, and average process duration of the NCCVs were 41.7 times, 137.8 days, and 3.6 days, respectively. These indicators of the NCCVs showed an increasing trend, but the trend was not significant. The NCCVs occurred most frequently in May, followed by June, and were located at the southernmost point in June. Therefore, it had the most active days and a relatively long process duration in May and June, significantly impacting Northeast China. During the cold period (1950–1980), the annual occurrence time of NCCV processes, number of cold vortex days, and the process duration of the NCCVs all showed an increasing trend, while in the warm period, these showed a decreasing trend. In addition, the durations of the NCCVs decreased significantly in the warm period, which indicated that the NCCV processes continued to weaken after climate warming. During the warm period (1981–2020), the frequency and active days of the NCCVs throughout the year and most months increased, and its general location was more southerly than in the cold period. Moreover, the annual average occurrence time of NCCV processes, number of active days, and average duration of the NCCV in the warm period were more than those in the cold period. Finally, the NCCVs continued for longer in autumn and winter than in spring and summer, and the durations of the NCCVs increased in warm periods.

Detecting, extracting, and mapping of inland surface water using Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager: A case study of Pune district, India.

Background: Recent developments in optical satellite remote sensing have led to a new era in the detection of surface water with its changing dynamics. This study presents the creation of surface water inventory for a part of Pune district (an administrative area), in India using the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and a multi spectral water indices method. Methods: A total of 13 Landsat 8 OLI cloud free images were analyzed for surface water detection. Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) spectral index method was employed to enhance the water pixels in the image. Water and non-water areas in the map were discriminated using the threshold slicing method with a trial and error approach. The accuracy analysis based on kappa coefficient and percentage of the correctly classified pixels was presented by comparing MNDWI maps with corresponding Joint Research Centre (JRC) Global Surface Water Explorer (GSWE) images. The changes in the surface area of eight freshwater reservoirs within the study area (Bhama Askhed, Bhatghar, Chaskaman, Khadakwasala, Mulashi, Panshet, Shivrata, and Varasgaon) for the year 2016 were analyzed and compared to GSWE time series water databases for accuracy assessment. The annual water occurrence map with percentage water occurrence on a yearly basis was also prepared. Results: The kappa coefficient agreement between MNDWI images and GSWE images is in the range of 0.56 to 0.96 with an average agreement of 0.82 indicating a strong level of agreement. Conclusions: MNDWI is easy to implement and is a sufficiently accurate method to separate water bodies from satellite images. The accuracy of the result depends on the clarity of image and selection of an optimum threshold method. The resulting accuracy and performance of the proposed algorithm will improve with implementation of automatic threshold selection methods and comparative studies for other spectral indices methods.

Temporal and spatial patterns of fire activity in three biomes of Brazil

The trade-off between conservation of natural resources and agribusiness expansion is a constant challenge in Brazil. The fires used to promote agricultural expansion increased in the last decades. While studies linking annual fire occurrence and rainfall seasonality are common, the relationship between fires, land use, and land cover remains understudied. Here, we investigated the frequency of the fires and performed a trend analysis for monthly, seasonal, and annual fires in three different biomes: Cerrado, Pantanal, and Atlantic Forest. We used burned area and integrated models in distinct scales (interannual, intraseasonal, and monthly) using Probability Density Functions (PDFs). The best fitting was found for Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distribution at all three biomes from the several PDFs tested. We found the most fire in the Pantanal (wetlands), followed by Cerrado (Brazilian Savanna) and Atlantic Forest (Semideciduous Forest). Our findings indicated that land use and land cover trends changed over the years. There was a strong correlation between fire and agricultural areas, with increasing trends pointing to land conversion to agricultural areas in all biomes. The high probability of fire indicates that expanding agricultural areas through the conversion of natural biomes impacts several natural ecosystems, transforming land cover and land use. This land conversion is promoting more fires each year.

The Future of Museums

The following conversation took place on 18 May 2021 during a panel discussion to coincide with marking the six months since the opening of the Chau Chak Wing Museum at the University of Sydney, along with the annual occurrence of International Museum Day.

Quantifying annual occurrence probability of rainfall-induced landslide at a specific slope

Although many countries and regions (e.g., Australia, the Netherlands, Hong Kong) have adopted risk assessment and management methods for landslide risk mitigation, a conventional method based on factor of safety (FS), instead of annual failure probability, is widely used in existing practice of slope engineering. It remains challenging for geotechnical practitioners to assess quantitatively annual failure probability and landslide risk of a specific slope, hindering implementation of landside risk assessment and mitigation in practice. This study proposes an innovative yet practical method to assess quantitatively annual failure probability of a site-specific slope caused by rainfall infiltration. The proposed method integrates slope stability analysis currently used in geotechnical practice with rainfall infiltration into the slope and annual exceedance probability of rainfall to obtain explicit relationships for estimation of the annual failure probability. The quantified annual failure probability comprehensively reflects possible rainfall patterns to the slope, and model settings and soil properties used in slope seepage and stability analyses. It can be implemented conveniently in geotechnical practice through a repeated execution of conventional slope seepage and stability analyses. The proposed method is illustrated by a real slope example in Hong Kong for calculating the annual failure probability of the slope before and after slope retrofitting.

Relationship Between Annual Airbornepollen Levels (1974–2014) and the Occurrence of Idiopathic Dilated Cardiomyopathy, Myasthenia Gravis, Polymyositis/ Dermatomyositis, and Vasculitis Syndrome Based on the National Registry Database of Specific Intractable Disease in Japan: A Retrospective Study

Background: In Japan, pollen counts increased between 1977 and 1987, including three peaks (1978-1980, 1982, 1984-1986) coinciding with Kawasaki disease (KD) outbreaks. KD and related diseases may be related to pollen exposure (PE). Methods and Results: To elucidate the effects of PE on outbreaks of intractable muscular diseases and vasculitis syndromes, we evaluated the annual occurrence of disorders in relation to pollen counts using data from a national database. Specifically, we evaluated the occurrence of idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (IDCM), myasthenia gravis (MG), polymyositis/dermatomyositis (PM/DM), Takayasu arteritis (TAK), granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA), and periarteritis nodosa (PAN). While we did not observe increased disease rates during the first pollen count peak (1978-1980), increased rates of all evaluated diseases were observed during the 1982 and 1984-86 peaks. Furthermore, simultaneous outbreaks coincided with 10pollen count peaks between 1988 and 2013. We observed significant correlations between the annual number of newly registered patients (nRPs) with IDCM, MG, PM/DM, and PAN and annual pollen levels (PL). Significant correlations were also observed between nRPs and the annual PL measured with a lag of 2 years for IDCM and GPA, 1–4 years for PAN, and 6 years for MG, PM/DM, TAK, GPA, and PAN. Conclusion: Data suggest that the cumulative effects of PE within 6 years prior to diagnosis might possibly trigger onset of muscular specific intractable diseases.

Assessment of existing indigenous practices employed that promote sustainable grazing in grazing reserves of Northeastern Nigeria

The study assessed existing indigenous practices employed that promote sustainable grazing in grazing reserves of northeastern Nigeria. The method used include: Semi-structure interview, field inventory and observations. The major findings of the study revealed that the indigenous practices employed in the grazing reserves by herders are sustainable in livestock. Among the problems encountered in livestock production in region are; inadequate water resources, inadequate pasture, shortage of land, annual occurrence of conflict, improper bush fires, farming intensification leads to encroachment, lack of security during mobility to some places, lack of funding and high cost in buying hay, competition of important grasses for livestock feeding and lack of fodder banks. In conclusion, there is lack of proper attention and inability of the responsible government agencies to provide effective management programmes, coupled with dilapidated and non-functioning infrastructures revealed during field survey. It is recommended that, for the reserve to achieve its mandate, all dilapidated infrastructures (tools and facilities) should be revamped and construction of new ones by both government and non-governmental organizations.

Probabilistic analysis of landslide hazard: considering the dependence between hazard components

This study reported a landslide hazard pattern considering the dependence of hazard components, with the example of Heilongjiang Province. The spatial and magnitude probabilities of landslides were first constructed to develop a potential link with the annual occurrence rate. Thereafter, landslide hazard considering component dependence was derived based on a modified Poisson model, and presented via the exceeding probability under the scenarios of combining two magnitudes (greater than or equal to 30,000 and 100,000 m3) and four periods (1, 3, 5 and 10 years). Results show that the Poisson model refined is not only a temporal probability function conditional on the magnitude and space, but can capture the hazard definition accurately. Moreover, the exceeding probability is related to the location of the raster, magnitude and the time interval of the landslide. Geographically, the areas with high exceeding probability are concentrated in the central and southeastern parts of the study area. Further, landslide probability dynamically varies with the magnitude and time interval, increasing gradually with the time interval, but decreasing with the landslide magnitude. This study is significant to resolve the conflict between the independence assumptions of the hazard calculation and the conditional attributes in the hazard definition.

Seasonal anomalies in radioactivity of the near-surface atmosphere in the Chernobyl-affected area of Belarus.

Increased radioactivity in the near-surface atmosphere is virtually an annual occurrence in the Gomel region, Belarus. However, there is no explicit evidence as to what causes these anomalies and whether their origin has a strong seasonal association. To establish any such relations, we have analysed long-term radiation monitoring data recorded in the region over the past 17 years from 2003 to 2020 to find that abnormal levels of atmospheric radioactivity in summer and in winter have different origins. Summer spikes are most likely caused by occasional wildfires blazing in contaminated afforested areas in extreme heat weather, such as the wildfires of 2015 and 2020 in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, which is confirmed by backward and forward trajectories of the air mass transport at the time calculated using the HYSPLIT model. By contrast, in winter, when a wildfire cannot occur, a potential source of atmospheric radioactivity in the Gomel region may be the use of wood fuel from contaminated territories in residential woodstoves. Measurements of wood ash sampled from local households across the contaminated area and close to the woods show excessively high concentrations of 137Cs and 90Sr. The Holt-Winters and the Facebook's Prophet models used for the purposes of this study prove their applicability for performing a short-term (5 years) prediction of the weekly index dynamics of the atmospheric radioactivity.

Property values and cyanobacterial algal blooms: Evidence from satellite monitoring of Inland Lakes

We examine how the frequency of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) generates economic costs through the mechanism of residential property values. We assemble nearly two decades worth of nationwide data on property sales near US inland lakes along as well as satellite-derived measures of the annual frequency of cyanoHABs in over 2000 large lakes during the years 2008–2011. We combine these data sources to estimate broad scale hedonic property models to recover the marginal willingness to pay to reduce the frequency of cyanobacterial blooms in seven climate regions across the United States. We find heterogeneity in the marginal cost of cyanoHABs, with a 10-percentage point increase in annual occurrence reducing average home values for near-shore properties by 3.5% in the Upper Midwest, 3.8% in the South, 3.3% in the Southeast, and 4.3% in the Northeast. We find null or inconclusive results for other regions. We use our estimates to illustrate the household-, lake-, and regional-level impacts of counterfactual changes in the frequency of cyanoHABs.

Accuracy of WRF for prediction of operational wind farm data and assessment of influence of upwind farms on power production

Numerical Weather Prediction models such as Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) are increasingly used to inform planning of both on-shore and off-shore wind-farms. This study aims to establish the accuracy with which WRF can be employed to predict the operational performance of a wind farm located in complex terrain and to assess the impact of nearby wind farms on farm energy production. Analysis is presented for a wind farm operating in complex terrain located in Baja California, Mexico. The WRF model initialized with the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data provides time-variation and annual occurrence of wind speed with root mean square error (RMSE) 12% and 1.4%, using either the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) or Pleim-Xu (PX) land-surface models. Energy supply from a 10 MW wind farm is predicted to within 5.25% (RUC) and 2% (PX) of measured data. The wind resource at several sites in the region offers the potential for wind farms with capacity factors in the range 32–34% without wake interaction. This reduces to 29% when wind turbine momentum extraction within the farm is modelled. The wakes of these farms are found to extend over 12 km downwind, with greater extent for larger-diameter 5 MW turbines than 2 MW turbines. These farm wakes reduce power output from a downwind farm by over 20% for wind speeds below rated speed resulting in 1.3–1.7% reduction in annual energy. This analysis of WRF accuracy establishes confidence in use of numerical weather prediction tools for wind farm operational data and informing use for wind farm siting in relation to nearby farms.

Common and newly discovered pathogens in the Israeli Mediterranean Sea mariculture

In the last few decades, the farming of different fish species in Israeli mariculture gradually increased. This paper aims to present the last 15 years’ study results that define the most significant fish pathogens and evaluate their seasonal or annual occurrence. During this survey, three new pathogens were detected, described, and entirely or partially characterized (the articles in press).

Monitoring Abundance and Distribution of Northern Gannets Morus bassanus in Western Iberian Waters in Autumn by Aerial Surveys

Several North Atlantic breeding seabirds, such as the Northern Gannet Morus bassanus, use Western Iberian Waters for wintering and migration. In this study, we aimed at producing absolute population estimates of post-breeding Gannets and evaluating the importance of the study area within the species' migration range. We performed six aerial surveys in September and/or October each year between 2010 and 2015, covering 74,840 km2 in total. Using line transect methodology, 3,672 Gannet sightings were recorded along 10,496.3 nautical miles (nm). Immature individuals and adults comprised approximately 87% of all sightings. Using Distance sampling, overall abundance was estimated at 89,930 birds, ranging from 58,010 individuals in 2014 to 128,140 in 2015. The highest densities per sector areas were recorded in the North and Centre sectors whereas the lowest densities were registered in the Galicia sector, the Spanish region within the study area. Gannets were mostly present in shallow shelf waters of the continental shelf, particularly between 3 and 20 nautical miles offshore. Habitat suitability models for Gannets in the study area were tested using several eco-geographical variables and chlorophyll concentrations were found to contribute most to explaining annual Gannet occurrence probabilities. A global interannual spatial analysis demonstrated the core areas for conservation of the Northern Gannet in Western Iberian Waters. Moreover, our results demonstrate that Western Iberian waters are used by almost 10% of the global Northern Gannet population, corroborating the existence of seabird hotspots during the non-breeding period, along migration corridors and at their wintering grounds.—Araújo, H., Correia Rodrigues, P., Bastos-Santos, J., Ferreira, M., Pereira, A., Martínez-Cedeira, J., Vingada, J. & Eira, C. (2022). Monitoring abundance and distribution of Northern Gannets Morus bassanus in Western Iberian Waters in autumn by aerial surveys. Ardeola, 69: 179-202.

Evolution Characteristics of Sand-Dust Weather Processes in China During 1961–2020

The spring sand-dust weather can be disastrous in China. It seriously endangers agricultural production, transportation, air quality, people’s lives and property, and is a subject of sustained and extensive concern. Currently, few studies have been conducted to analyze sand-dust events in North China from the perspective of sand-dust processes. Although there are a few studies on the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of sand-dust processes, they are mainly based on outdated data or case studies of major sand-dust events. In this study, the evolution characteristics of sand-dust processes in China over the last 60 years are studied based on the identification method and several characteristic quantities (including duration and impact range) of sand-dust weather processes defined in the Operational Regulations of Monitoring and Evaluation for Regional Weather and Climate Processes newly issued by the China Meteorological Administration in 2019. First, through statistics, we obtain the annual occurrence frequency, annual days, and the annual number of affected stations of sand-dust processes (including sand-dust storms, blowing sand, and suspended dust) from January 1961 to May 2021. Based on the Mann–Kendall test (MK) and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), we analyzed evolution trends and probability distribution characteristics of annual occurrence frequency, annual days, and the annual number of affected stations of sand-dust processes. In addition, we investigate the start time of the first and the last dust processes in each of the past 60 years, as well as the seasonal distribution characteristics of sand-dust processes. The results show that under the background of global warming, the sand-dust weather in China tends to decrease significantly. Specifically, the annual occurrence frequency and annual days showed an upward trend before the 1980s and a significant downward trend after that, as well as the significant turnarounds in the annual number of dust processes that occurred in the 1990s and around 2010. Moreover, the sand-dust processes tend to start later and end earlier. The sand-dust processes are mainly concentrated between March and May, with the highest occurrence probability in April.