Annual Minimum Research Articles

Climatic zoning of Xinjiang for heterogeneous production of high-quality wine

To diversify wine production in Xinjiang and address the issue of wine homogenization, it is crucial to leverage the unique climatic advantages of each grape-producing area to foster a high-quality wine industry. Using meteorological data from 80 national standard meteorological stations in Xinjiang, spanning 1961 to 2019, this study established a climatic zoning index system tailored to distinct grape varieties for wines, including dry red, dry white, ice wine, sparkling wine, and natural sweet wines. The system is formulated based on key climatic factors such as the frost-free period, ≥ 10 °C active accumulated temperature (AAT10), mean temperature of the coldest month, annual extreme minimum temperature, and dryness. The fine climatic zoning for wine grapes in Xinjiang was created using GIS spatial interpolation technology. The findings reveal that Xinjiang’s four traditional wine grape growing areas are ideally suited for cultivating high-quality dry red and dry white wine grapes. The premium planting areas for natural sweet wine grapes are concentrated primarily in the northern Tarim Basin in southern Xinjiang and the southern Junggar Basin at the northern foothills of the Tianshan Mountains. The sparkling wine grape cultivation area is scarce in Xinjiang, with only a small, high-quality segment located in the Emin region of the Tacheng Basin. As for ice wine grapes, Xinjiang has limited growing areas, with scattered cultivable patches found in the Yili River Valley and the Tacheng Basin. Notably, the Tacheng Basin, a non-traditional wine grape region, contains high-quality grape growing area for dry white and sparkling wines, including the only high-quality area for sparkling wine. This diversification potential could enhance Xinjiang’s capacity to develop and expand its premium dry white wines and expand its range of wine offerings.

Profound Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Sea Level Along the United States Mid‐Atlantic Coast

AbstractThe monthly mean sea level along the U.S. Mid‐Atlantic Coast varies seasonally, reaching a minimum in January and a maximum in September during the 1960–2020 period. However, this seasonal cycle has changed significantly on multi‐decadal timescales. In the last two decades, the annual minimum has shifted from January to February. The amplitude of seasonal changes increased by 65% from 14.16 cm in 1980–1999 to 23.16 cm in 2000–2020. Even more concerning, the maximum sea level in September rose by 82%, from 6.81 to 12.38 cm, potentially exacerbating coastal flooding over the past 20 years. A two‐layer ocean model effectively replicates both the phase and magnitude of the observed changes and attributes these shifts to changes in wind stress near the coast, with relatively minor influence from deep ocean forcing. Both alongshore and cross‐shore wind stress changes are found to contribute to changes in the sea level's seasonal cycle.

Impact of Climatic Factors on the Temporal Trend of Malaria in India from 1961 to 2021.

Malaria remains a significant public health problem in India. Although temperature influences Anopheline mosquito feeding intervals, population density, and longevity, the reproductive potential of the Plasmodium parasite and rainfall influence the availability of larval habitats, and evidence to correlate the impact of climatic factors on the incidence of malaria is sparse. Understanding the influence of climatic factors on malaria transmission will help us predict the future spread and intensification of the disease. The present study aimed to determine the impact of temporal trend of climatic factors such as annual average maximum, minimum, mean temperature, and rainfall on the annual incidence of malaria cases in India for a period of 61 years from 1961 to 2021 and relative humidity for a period of 41 years from 1981 to 2021. Two different analyses were performed. In the first analysis, the annual incidence of malaria and meteorological parameters such as annual maximum, minimum, and mean temperature, annual rainfall, and relative humidity were plotted separately in the graph to see if the temporal trend of climatic factors had any coherence or influence over the annual incidence of malaria cases. In the second analysis, a scatter plot was used to determine the relationship of the incidence of malaria in response to associated climatic factors. The incidence of malaria per million population was also calculated. In the first analysis, the annual malaria cases showed a negative correlation of varying degrees with relative humidity, minimum, maximum, and mean temperature, except rainfall, which showed a positive correlation. In the second analysis, the scatter plot showed that the rainfall had a positive correlation with malaria cases, and the rest of the climatic factors, such as temperature and humidity, had negative correlations of varying degrees. Out of the total 61 years studied, in 29 years, malaria cases increased more than 1000 square root counts when the minimum temperature was at 18-19 °C; counts also increased over a period of 33 years when the maximum temperature was 30-31 °C, over 37 years when the mean temperature was 24-25 °C, over 20 years when the rainfall was in the range of 100-120, and over a period of 29 years when the relative humidity was at 55-65%. While the rainfall showed a strong positive correlation with the annual incidence of malaria cases, the temperature and relative humidity showed negative correlations of various degrees. The increasing temperature may push the boundaries of malaria towards higher altitude and northern sub-tropical areas from the southern peninsular region. Although scanty rainfall reduces the transmission, increases in the same would increase the malaria incidence in India.

The Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Soil Degradation in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China

The Northeastern Black Soil Region in China is recognized as one of the three major black soil regions globally and is often regarded as a cornerstone of national food security. However, prolonged agricultural practices have led to increasingly severe soil degradation, and the mechanisms and driving factors behind the degradation of soil quality remain unclear. Therefore, this study examines the historical and current characteristics of soil quality, focusing on major influencing factors, such as the 70-year history of reclamation and climate change. By accessing different databases, reviewing the relevant literature, and performing Pearson correlation and redundancy analyses (RDA), this study investigated the variation patterns of significant soil quality indicators and their driving factors in the 0–20 cm soil layer along the latitudinal direction (Nenjiang, Beian, Hailun, and Harbin) in the typical black soil region of Northeast China. The main conclusions are as follows: the soil organic matter (SOM) content experienced a rapid decline in the 30 years preceding cultivation (1950~1980), with the greatest decline rate in the Beian area (about 1.10 g/kg per year). The SOM in the Beian, Hailun, and Harbin areas decreased from north to south, changing at rates of 9.40–21.67 g/kg/degree and 0.15–0.34 g/kg/m with latitude and elevation, respectively. Elevation impacts the annual rate of change in soil quality indicators through its influence on the annual mean maximum temperature (AMXT) and annual atmospheric pressure (AP). AMXT and AP exhibit a linear relationship with elevation, based on which regression models were established. The key factors influencing soil quality indicators in the black soil region include cultivation years (Y), annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures (AMXT and AMNT), annual relative humidity (ARH), and AP. An increase in chemical fertilizer application is among the critical factors affecting soil pH. Additionally, the extensive use of agricultural machinery can reduce soil porosity and cause water and salt accumulation, ultimately leading to a decline in soil pH. This study offers theoretical support for mitigating soil degradation in Northeast China’s black soil region, thereby contributing to national food security and promoting sustainable development.

Respiratory Diagnoses Year-Round: Unraveling the Multifaceted Pediatric Infection Cycles.

The aim of the study is to analyze the annual cycle of pediatric medically attended respiratory illnesses. Data on 141 million pediatric respiratory visits from the years 2010-2019 were obtained from the Polish National Healthcare Fund. To identify underlying patterns and trends within the aggregated data, techniques like seasonal-trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) and principal component analysis (PCA) were applied. A strongly recurring pattern was observed. Following the annual minimum in late summer, there was a sudden surge in upper respiratory infections in early September. Subsequently, overall visits declined gradually, while the share of lower respiratory infections increased, particularly during the influenza peaks from January to March. Afterwards, visits declined steadily, with an additional peak of tonsillopharyngitis noted in midsummer. Dimensionality reduction of diagnoses implied the existence of two major groups of co-occurring diagnoses, the proportions of which change over the year: one smaller but more severe, peaking during the influenza season, and the second dominating with lower severity. Age differences in diagnoses were observed, with babies showing upper respiratory infections likely diagnosed with the common cold rather than a more specific upper respiratory infection. While enhancing surveillance strategies is indeed a desirable long-term goal, it is worth noting that despite the variability observed in the onset of the influenza season, the infection cycles generally follow a relatively fixed pattern. This consistency provides a foundation for effective planning and underscores the potential for proactive measures to mitigate the impact of seasonal outbreaks.

Analyzing the Spatiotemporal Changes in Climatic Extremes in Cold and Mountainous Environment: Insights from the Himalayan Mountains of Pakistan

This study assessed the past changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events across the Himalayan Mountains of Pakistan. This cold and mountainous environmental region has witnessed a significant increase in climate-related disasters over the past few decades. Spatiotemporal changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events were analyzed using 24 indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). For this study, in situ data of 16 national meteorological stations were obtained from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) for the past three decades (1991–2020). The significance of the trends was assessed using the modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test, and the Theil–Sen (TS) slope estimator was used to estimate the slope of the trend. The results showed that there has been a consistent decline in the total precipitation amount across the Himalayan Mountains of Pakistan. The trend exhibited a decrease in the annual average precipitation at a rate of −6.56 mm/year. Simultaneously, there was an increasing trend in the annual average minimum and maximum temperatures at rates of 0.02 °C/year and 0.07 °C/year, respectively. The frequencies of consecutive wet days (CWDs) and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day) have decreased significantly, with decreasing rates of −0.40 days/year and −1.18 mm/year, respectively. The amount of precipitation during very wet days (R95p) and extremely wet days was decreased by −19.20 and −13.60 mm/decade, respectively. The warm spell duration (WSDI) and the frequency of warm days (TX90p) across the Himalayan Range both increased by 1.5 and 1.4 days/decade. The number of cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p) decreased by 2.9 and 3.4 days/decade. The average temperature of the hottest nights (TXn) and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) were increased by 0.10 and 0.30 °C/decade. The results indicated an increasing tendency of dry and warm weather in the Himalayan region of Pakistan, which could have adverse consequences for water resources, agriculture, and disaster management in the country. Therefore, it is essential to prioritize the implementation of localized adaptation techniques in order to enhance sustainable climate resilience and effectively address the emerging climate challenges faced by these mountainous regions.

Potential distribution of rice thrips (Stenchaetothrips biformis) in India under changing climate

Sudden outbreaks of agricultural pests are increasing in India due to the growing prominence of environmental issues like global warming, the occurrence of weather extremes, and hydrological extremes. Climate change impacts the developmental rates and population dynamics of agricultural pests. As rice is a staple food widely used in India, it often suffers intensive damage by various pests, leading to a considerable decrease in crop yield. One of the most common pests in rice fields in India and neighboring countries is the rice thrips (Stenchaetothrips biformis). However, the degree of pest infestation of rice crops under climate change scenarios is poorly known. Therefore, this study aimed to understand the potential geographical distribution of the rice thrips in India for future scenarios using the MaxEnt modeling framework. Future projections from global climate models (GCMs), such as HadGEM3-GC31 and MPI-ESMI-2, are used to predict the most affected regions in 2050 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The results from the MaxEnt indicate that the southern and northeastern parts of India will be highly affected by rice thrips in 2050. The affected number of districts are found to be 256, 330 and 313 under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. It has been observed that the maximum temperature is the most influential climatic parameter for the geographical distribution of rice thrips, followed by the annual mean and minimum temperatures. It can be concluded from these results that the elevated temperature enhances the growth and distribution of rice thrips.

Analyzing trend and forecasting of temperature and rainfall in Shimla district of Himachal Pradesh, India using non-parametric and bagging REPTree machine learning approaches

The changing pattern of climate variables has caused extreme weather events and severe disasters, especially in mountainous regions. Such events have a detrimental impact on resources, environment and society. Thus, it has become imperative to examine the trends and forecasts of meteorological variables using a scientific modelling approach. This study investigates temperature and rainfall trends using the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator between 1980 and 2021. A Bagging-REPTree machine learning model was utilized for forecasting temperature and rainfall trends for the next 30 years (2022–2051) to understand the temporal dynamics in Shimla district of the Indian Himalayan state. The mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient were determined to assess the effectiveness and precision of the model. The findings revealed that the frequency of intense rainfall in the district has increased during the monsoon season (June–September) from 1980 to 2021. Significant trends were found in annual rainfall, maximum, minimum and mean temperatures while rainfall during the winter, summer and post-monsoon seasons has shown a declining trend. The forecast analysis revealed a significant trend for rainfall during the monsoon season and an increasing trend in the maximum temperature has been observed during the winter and summer seasons. The analysis has provided sufficient evidence of variability and uncertainty in the behavior of meteorological variables. The outcome of the study may help in devising suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies to combat climate change in hilly regions. The methodology adopted in the study may help in the future progression of the research in different geographical regions for trend and climate forecasting.

A Comprehensive Evaluation of Mean and Extreme Climate for the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM)

Abstract This study evaluates the performance of the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) in dynamically downscaling fifth major global reanalysis produced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) (ERA5) reanalysis data from 1985 to 2014, following a 5-yr spinup period. It focuses on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation, comparing CCAM to ERA5 and the Australian Gridded Climate Data (AGCD). The CCAM effectively reduces warm biases in daily minimum temperatures but struggles with cold biases in daily maximum temperatures, particularly in northern Australia during the wet season, possibly due to high-level cloud overestimation. Precipitation tends to be overestimated, especially in extreme rainfall events, though offset by an underestimation of low rainfall. The study showcases improvements in the annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures across most of Australia, while identifying challenges in forecasting cooler extreme temperatures. It adds value to annual maximum daily maximum temperatures in southern Australia but less so in the north. The analysis of the 5% annual exceedance probability (AEP5%) yields mixed results influenced by location and potential ocean temperature changes. Some coastal areas exhibit lost value, possibly linked to ocean temperature shifts. Furthermore, CCAM’s representation of maximum annual daily and 5-day rainfall reveals lost value, particularly in eastern Australia due to an overestimate of extreme rainfall. Despite the challenges of comparing a dynamical downscaling model like CCAM to ERA5, this study highlights its benefits in reducing biases, especially in temperature representation. Given the larger biases in phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) global climate models, CCAM appears suitable for dynamic downscaling in climate projections, emphasizing the need for ongoing model enhancements, including addressing biases related to ephemeral water bodies and extreme rainfall. Significance Statement This study critically assesses the performance of the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) in dynamically downscaling ERA5 reanalysis data from 1985 to 2014, offering valuable insights into climate modeling. Focusing on temperature and precipitation, CCAM proves effective in mitigating warm biases in daily minimum temperatures but encounters challenges with cold biases in daily maximum temperatures, particularly in northern Australia. The analysis reveals the overestimation of precipitation, especially in extreme events, yet identifies improvements in annual minimum daily minimum temperatures across Australia. The study underscores CCAM’s potential in reducing biases compared to CMIP6 global climate models, making it a promising tool for dynamic downscaling in climate projections. It emphasizes the necessity for ongoing model enhancements, particularly addressing biases related to ephemeral water bodies and extreme rainfall.

Annual Minimum Snow/Ice Extent Variations over Greenland since 2000: Ice Sheet, Peripheral Areas, and Relation to Ice Mass Balance

Abstract A novel satellite image processing technique was utilized to produce an annual time series of the minimum snow/ice (MSI) extent over the entire Greenland landmass for the period 2000–22. The information was derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer 10-day clear-sky composites over the April–September period. The data products were generated from 250-m swath imagery. The annual aggregates were downscaled to a 150-m grid for consistency with data on margins of Greenland available from the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) and the Greenland Ice Mapping Project. Interannual variations in the MSI extent were derived and analyzed for each of the seven major glacier basins in Greenland split into the main ice sheet, represented by a static map, and the peripheral areas from which all variations originated. Four of the seven regions demonstrated statistically significant negative trends in the MSI extent. The entire Greenland area also showed a declining snow/ice extent although this was not statistically significant. The region-wide and peripheral snow/ice extent varied from a minimum of 1.807 × 106 km2 (1.449 × 105 km2 for peripheral areas) observed in 2012 to a maximum of 1.860 × 106 km2 (1.977 × 105 km2) observed in 2006 with an average value of 1.829 × 106 km2 (1.664 × 105 km2). The derived MSI variations showed a statistically significant correlation with the near-surface 2-m air temperature from the ERA5-Land reanalysis and Greenland ice mass balance from GEUS for all catchments, with correlation coefficients for the entire area equal to −0.74 and 0.53, respectively. The mapping of many peripheral glaciers and ice shelves included in the glaciology databases and utilized for the IPCC reporting is not always consistent with our results and requires improvement, especially in coastal areas.

Annual gametogenic development of the Asiatic hard clam, Meretrix meretrix, collected from the west coast of Moheshkhali Island, Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh

AbstractWe investigated the annual gametogenic development of the Asiatic hard clam, Meretrix meretrix, collected from the west coast of Moheshkhali Island, Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, by using biometry and histology through monthly sampling from July 2018 to June 2019. After biometric measurements, cross sections were cut for histology to determine the sex and gonadal maturity of the clams. Condition index (CI) showed two distinct peaks in July and December, which indicated that clams were ripe during these months, and a subsequent decrease in CI reflected spawning, which was consistent with histology. Our study revealed a biannual spawning cycle of the clams and gametogenesis starting in October and June. Spawning occurred from February to May and July to September. Maturity index (MI) showed two distinct peaks in July (3.50) and January (3.60) when most of the clams were in late developing or ripe stages. A gradual increase in temperature from annual minima in conjunction with decreasing salinity levels may trigger spawning in February, but spawning in July was initiated when salinity levels increased from annual minima. The data could be used by resource managers for the conservation of this commercial species and to time harvesting for the best quality clams without interrupting spawning activity.

Non-stationary models for hydrological extremes in the mountain rivers of the Argentinean Central Andes

ABSTRACT The assessment of extreme hydrological events relies on the assumption that time series are independent and identically distributed. However, empirical evidence contradicts this assumption, indicating the presence of nonstationarity, including trends, step changes, or both, in the river records of the Argentinean Central Andes. This study proposes the use of generalized additive models in location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) to model the annual maximum and minimum flow of seven rivers. Firstly, the presence of trends and step changes was assessed. Subsequently, the models were formulated considering time and various climatic indices as covariates. The findings reveal declining trends and negative jumps over the past 50 to 70 years. The location parameters of the models exhibit linear or smoothing dependence with time or climate indices covariates. Different modes of climate variability are associated with hydrological extremes. The nonstationary models provide a novel complementary framework for water resource planning in the region.

Climate Change Trend Using Descriptive Time Series Technique in Machine Learning: A Case of Jimma Zone, Southwestern Ethiopia

Understanding climate variability and monitoring time-series trends of temperature and rainfall is crucial for the sustainable development of our planet. This study utilized historical data from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Monthly (GHCN-M) provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) to analyze the temperature and rainfall data from 2015 to 2022. The analysis was conducted using Python 3.1.1 on Anaconda Jupyter Notebook and the package matplotlib 3.2.1 was used for data visualization. The results revealed a pattern of maximum rainfall between March to May for the years 2020, 2021, and 2022, while for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, the maximum rainfall was recorded in October, December, and November. Additionally, the annual maximum rainfalls were recorded in the years 2020 and 2022, and the annual maximum temperatures for all study years were recorded in January, February, and March months. On the other hand, the annual minimum temperatures for all study years occurred in June, July, August, and September months. Similarly, annual average temperatures were recorded in January, February, and March months. This study emphasizes the importance of monitoring climate change and its impacts on our planet. By understanding climate variability and time-series trends, we can better prepare for the future and work towards a sustainable world.

A methodological approach for filling the gap in extreme daily temperature data: an application in the Calabria region (Southern Italy)

Regional studies are crucial for monitoring and managing the impacts of extreme climatic events. This phenomenon is particularly important in some areas, such as the Mediterranean region, which has been identified as one of the most responsive regions to climate change. In this regard, the analysis of large space-time sets of climatic data can provide potentially valuable information, although the datasets are commonly affected by the issue of missing data. This approach can significantly reduce the reliability of inferences derived from space-time data analysis. Consequently, the selection of an effective missing data recovery method is crucial since a poor dataset reconstruction could lead to misleading the decision makers’ judgments. In the present paper, a methodology that can enhance the confidence of the statistical analysis performed on the reconstructed data is presented. The basic assumption of the proposed methodology is that missing data within certain percentages cannot significantly change the shape or parameters of the complete data distribution. Therefore, by applying several missing data recovery methods whose reconstructed dataset better overlaps the original dataset, larger confidence is needed. After the gap filling procedure, the temporal tendencies of the annual daily minimum temperature (T < 0 °C) were analysed in the Calabria region (southern Italy) by applying a test for trend detection to 8 temperature series over a 30-year period (1990–2019). The results showed that there was a constant reduction in the duration of frosty days, indicating the reliability of the effect of climate change.

Trend Analysis of Climatic Variables in the Cross River Basin, Nigeria

There have been several incidences of flood recently, which are believed to be aggravated by increased climatic variables as a result of perceived changes in climatic conditions (due to climate change) in the Cross River Basin. The basin is the most extensively developed and used river basin in the management of the water resources of the Cross River and Akwa Ibom States in Nigeria. In this paper, 30 years (from 1992 to 2021) of hydro-meteorological data (annual average rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, hu midity, duration of sunlight (sunshine hours), evaporation, wind speed, soil temperature, cloud cover, solar radiation, and atmospheric pressure) from four stations in the Cross River Basin were obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Abuja and subjected to trend detection analysis using the Mann–Kendall test to determine the trend in climatic parameters. The results indicate that there is a significant upward trend in annual rainfall in Ogoja but a downward trend in Calabar. The evaporation trend is significantly downward in Eket, whereas in Calabar, there is an upward trend in solar radiation. Generally, there is a significant rise in annual maximum temperature across the basin. Serial correlation and segmented regression analyses were performed to measure the impact of fluctuations in monthly and long-term Tahiti and Darwin’s Sea level pressures on the climatic variables at the Cross River Basin catchment. These analyses were necessary to determine the extent of the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation climatic cycle. The analyses show no significant association between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and rainfall or between the ENSO and runoff in the catchment. This implies that the impact of the ENSO on rainfall and runoff in the Cross River Basin catchment is not considerable. The intercepts derived from the segmented regression in Eket and Ogoja show significant positive trends in both areas for rainfall and runoff. The trends in intercepts suggest that there are external factors influencing rainfall and runoff other than ENSO events, thus strengthening the assertion of climate change. Results from this study will facilitate the understanding of the variability in climatic parameters by stakeholders in the basin, researchers, policymakers, and water resource managers.

Comprehensive evaluation of extreme hydrometeorological events coincidence and their interrelationships in the Hanjiang River Basin, China

Extreme hydrometeorological events are often highly destructive and can cause huge damage to the natural environment and social economy. As climate change and human activities intensify, the frequency and intensity of such extreme events continue to increase. This phenomenon is also shown in the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB) in recent decades. In this study, we focus on the coincidence occurrence patterns of extreme hydrometeorological events. First, we used the standardized index method to extract the annual maximum and minimum values of runoff, precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures from 1961 to 2019 in the control area of the Baihe (BH) hydrological station, with time scales from 1 month to 12 months. Then through the Copula and nested structure Copula functions, the joint occurrence probability of bivariate and multivariate were analyzed. The results show that too high a maximum temperature will inhibit runoff, while an increase in minimum temperature will promote an increase in runoff to a certain extent. Both the maximum and minimum temperatures in the basin shown a significant increasing trend, and the intensity of hydrological drought also shows an increasing trend. An increase in maximum temperature will aggravate hydrological drought, as the combined joint occurrence probability of them is the greatest. Analysis through the nested structure Copula functions show that when extreme hydrometeorological events both occurred at the median of their intervals, their coincidence occurrence probability is the maximum, and when the time scale is eight months, their coincidence occurrence probability is the highest. This study can provide a reference for joint probability analysis of extreme hydrometeorological events.

Seasonal Groundwater Level Dynamics in Unconfined Aquifers across the United States.

Groundwater hydrographs contain a rich set of information on the dynamics of aquifer systems and the processes and properties that influence them. While the importance of seasonal cycles in hydrologic and environmental state variables is widely recognized there has yet to be a comprehensive analysis of the seasonal dynamics of groundwater across the United States. Here we use time series of groundwater level measurements from 997 wells from the National Groundwater Monitoring Network to identify and describe groundwater seasonal cycles in unconfined aquifers across the United States. We use functional data analysis to obtain a functional form fit for each site and apply an unsupervised clustering algorithm to identify a set of five distinct seasonal cycles regimes. Each seasonal cycle regime has a distinctive shape and distinct timing of its annual minimum and maximum water level. There are clear spatial patterns in the occurrence of each seasonal cycle regime, with the relative occurrence of each regime strongly influenced by the geologic setting (aquifer system), climate, and topography. Our findings provide a comprehensive characterization of groundwater seasonal cycles across much of the United States and present both a methodology and results useful for assessing and understanding unconfined groundwater systems.

Spatio-Temporal Trends in Precipitation, Temperature, and Extremes: A Study of Malawi and Zambia (1981–2021)

Analyzing long-term climate changes is a prerequisite for identifying hotspot areas and developing site-specific adaptation measures. The current study focuses on assessing changes in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and potential evapotranspiration in Zambia and Malawi from 1981 to 2021. High-resolution precipitation and temperature datasets are used, namely, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (0.05°) and Multi-Source Weather (0.1°). The Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s Slope methods are employed to assess the changes. The trend analysis shows a non-significant increase in annual precipitation in many parts of Zambia and Central Malawi. In Zambia and Malawi, the average annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures show a statistically significant increasing trend (up to 0.6 °C/decade). The change in precipitation during the major rainy seasons (December–April) shows a non-significant increasing trend (up to 3 mm/year) in a large part of Zambia and Central Malawi. However, Malawi and Northern Zambia show a non-significant decreasing trend (up to −5 mm/year). The change in December–April precipitation significantly correlates with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (Indian Ocean Dipole) in Southern (Northern) Zambia and Malawi. To minimize the impact of the observed changes, it is imperative to develop adaptation measures to foster sustainability in the region.

Assessing quality of hepato-pancreato-biliary surgery: nationwide benchmarking.

Clinical auditing is a powerful tool to evaluate and improve healthcare. Deviations from the expected quality of care are identified by benchmarking the results of individual hospitals using national averages. This study aimed to evaluate the use of quality indicators for benchmarking hepato-pancreato-biliary (HPB) surgery and when outlier hospitals could be identified. A population-based study used data from two nationwide Dutch HPB audits (DHBA and DPCA) from 2014 to 2021. Sample size calculations determined the threshold (in percentage points) to identify centres as statistical outliers, based on current volume requirements (annual minimum of 20 resections) on a two-year period (2020-2021), covering mortality rate, failure to rescue (FTR), major morbidity rate and textbook/ideal outcome (TO) for minor liver resection (LR), major LR, pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) and distal pancreatectomy (DP). In total, 10 963 and 7365 patients who underwent liver and pancreatic resection respectively were included. Benchmark and corresponding range of mortality rates were 0.6% (0 -3.2%) and 3.3% (0-16.7%) for minor and major LR, and 2.7% (0-7.0%) and 0.6% (0-4.2%) for PD and DP respectively. FTR rates were 5.4% (0-33.3%), 14.2% (0-100%), 7.5% (1.6%-28.5%) and 3.1% (0-14.9%). For major morbidity rate, corresponding rates were 9.8% (0-20.5%), 28.1% (0-47.1%), 36% (15.8%-58.3%) and 22.3% (5.2%-46.1%). For TO, corresponding rates were 73.6% (61.3%-94.4%), 54.1% (35.3-100), 46.8% (25.3%-59.4%) and 63.3% (30.7%-84.6%). Mortality rate thresholds indicating a significant outlier were 8.6% and 15.4% for minor and major LR and 14.2% and 8.6% for PD and DP. For FTR, these thresholds were 17.9%, 31.6%, 22.9% and 15.0%. For major morbidity rate, these thresholds were 26.1%, 49.7%, 57.9% and 52.9% respectively. For TO, lower thresholds were 52.5%, 32.5%, 25.8% and 41.4% respectively. Higher hospital volumes decrease thresholds to detect outliers. Current event rates and minimum volume requirements per hospital are too low to detect any meaningful between hospital differences in mortality rate and FTR. Major morbidity rate and TO are better candidates to use for benchmarking.

Variations in Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Mount Qomolangma during 1971–2020

Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature observational data during 1971–2020, the variabilities of the maximum and minimum temperature of Mount Qomolangma are analyzed. The daily maximum temperature is 25.8 °C and the daily minimum temperature is −31.4 °C during the study period in Mount Qomolangma. Overall, there has been an upward trend with decadal laps for both maximum and minimum temperature. On monthly, seasonal, and annual scales, neither maximum temperature nor minimum temperature time series exhibit an increasing trend from 1971 to 2020. The increasing trends in monthly minimum temperature are even more pronounced than those in maximum temperature. Abrupt changes are noted in both monthly, seasonal, and annual maximum and minimum temperature time series. Specifically, an abrupt change in annual maximum temperature occurred in the 1980s, while an abrupt change in annual minimum temperature occurred in the 1990s. Differences between the north and south slope of Mount Qomolangma are evident, with temperature fluctuations of the north slope being more extreme than those of south slope. The seasonal and annual maximum temperature of the north slope is higher than that of the south slope, except for winter, and the seasonal and annual minimum temperatures of the north slope are all lower than those of the south slope. The tendences of maximum and minimum temperatures in the north slope are more dominant than those in the south slope. The findings are beneficial for understanding the characteristics of local climate change on the Tibetan plateau and to underscore the significant role of Mount Qomolangma in the context of global warming.