Annual Mean Response Research Articles

Suppressed migrating diurnal tides in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region during El Niño in northern winter and its possible mechanism

Abstract. As observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER), the migrating diurnal tide (DW1) in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region decreased by ∼ 10 % during El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter (December–January–February) from 2002 to 2020. According to the multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis, the linear effects of El Niño on the tropical MLT DW1 are significantly negative in both SABER observations and SD-WACCM (the Specified-Dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) simulations. The DW1 response to El Niño in NH winter is much stronger than its annual mean response. As suggested by SD-WACCM simulation, Hough mode (1, 1) dominates the DW1 tidal variation in the tropical MLT region. The consistency between the (1, 1) mode in the tropopause region and the MLT region and the downward phase progression from 15 to 100 km indicates the direct upward propagation of DW1 from the excitation source in the troposphere. The suppressed DW1 heating rates in the tropical troposphere (averaged over ∼ 0–16 km and 35∘ S–35∘ N) during El Niño winter contribute to the decreased DW1 tide. To evaluate the effect of the gravity waves (GWs) on the tide, the GW forcing is calculated as the GW drag weighted by the phase relation between DW1 GW drag and DW1 wind. The negative GW forcing in the tropical upper mesosphere would significantly suppress the MLT DW1 tide during El Niño winter. This tide–GW interaction could be a dominant mechanism for DW1 response in the MLT to El Niño. During El Niño winter, the increased ratio of the absolute and planetary vorticity (R) suppresses the waveguide and thus the DW1 amplitude in the subtropical mesosphere. However, the effect of the waveguide might play a secondary role due to its relatively weak response.

Quantifying uncertainties of climate signals in chemistry climate models related to the 11-year solar cycle – Part 1: Annual mean response in heating rates, temperature, and ozone

Abstract. Variations in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) with the 11-year sunspot cycle have been shown to have a significant impact on temperatures and the mixing ratios of atmospheric constituents in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Uncertainties in modelling the effects of SSI variations arise from uncertainties in the empirical models reconstructing the prescribed SSI data set as well as from uncertainties in the chemistry–climate model (CCM) formulation. In this study CCM simulations with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model and the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1)–Whole Atmosphere Chemistry Climate Model (WACCM) have been performed to quantify the uncertainties of the solar responses in chemistry and dynamics that are due to the usage of five different SSI data sets or the two CCMs. We apply a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) to separate the influence of the SSI data sets and the CCMs on the variability of the solar response in shortwave heating rates, temperature, and ozone. The solar response is derived from climatological differences of time slice simulations prescribing SSI for the solar maximum in 1989 and near the solar minimum in 1994. The SSI values for the solar maximum of each SSI data set are created by adding the SSI differences between November 1994 and November 1989 to a common SSI reference spectrum for near-solar-minimum conditions based on ATLAS-3 (Atmospheric Laboratory of Applications and Science-3). The ANOVA identifies the SSI data set with the strongest influence on the variability of the solar response in shortwave heating rates in the upper mesosphere and in the upper stratosphere–lower mesosphere. The strongest influence on the variability of the solar response in ozone and temperature is identified in the upper stratosphere–lower mesosphere. However, in the region of the largest ozone mixing ratio, in the stratosphere from 50 to 10 hPa, the SSI data sets do not contribute much to the variability of the solar response when the Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions-T (SATIRE-T) SSI data set is omitted. The largest influence of the CCMs on variability of the solar responses can be identified in the upper mesosphere. The solar response in the lower stratosphere also depends on the CCM used, especially in the tropics and northern hemispheric subtropics and mid-latitudes, where the model dynamics modulate the solar responses. Apart from the upper mesosphere, there are also regions where the largest fraction of the variability of the solar response is explained by randomness, especially for the solar response in temperature.

Model evidence for a seasonal bias in Antarctic ice cores

Much of the global annual mean temperature change over Quaternary glacial cycles can be attributed to slow ice sheet and greenhouse gas feedbacks, but analysis of the short-term response to orbital forcings has the potential to reveal key relationships in the climate system. In particular, obliquity and precession both produce highly seasonal temperature responses at high latitudes. Here, idealized single-forcing model experiments are used to quantify Earth’s response to obliquity, precession, CO2, and ice sheets, and a linear reconstruction methodology is used to compare these responses to long proxy records around the globe. This comparison reveals mismatches between the annual mean response to obliquity and precession in models versus the signals within Antarctic ice cores. Weighting the model-based reconstruction toward austral winter or spring reduces these discrepancies, providing evidence for a seasonal bias in ice cores.

A Conceptual Model for the Response of Tropical Rainfall to Orbital Variations

Abstract Tropical rainfall to first order responds to variations in Earth’s orbit through shifts of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and changes in zonally averaged rainfall intensity. Here, a conceptual model is developed that represents both processes and their response to orbital insolation variations. The model predicts the seasonal evolution of tropical rainfall between 30°S and 30°N. Insolation variations impact seasonal rainfall in two different ways: thermodynamically, leading to variations in rainfall intensity through modulation of the water vapor content of the atmosphere; and dynamically, leading to shifts of the ITCZ through modulation of the global atmospheric energy budget. Thermodynamic and dynamic effects act together to shape the annual-mean response of tropical rainfall to changes in Earth’s orbit. The model successfully reproduces changes in annual-mean rainfall inferred from paleo-proxies across several glacial–interglacial cycles. It illuminates how orbital precession and variations of Earth’s obliquity affect tropical rainfall in distinct ways near the equator and farther away from it, with spectral signatures of precession and obliquity variations that shift with latitude. It also provides explanations for the observed different phasings of rainfall minima and maxima near the equator and away from it. For example, the model reproduces a phase shift of ~10 ka between rainfall records from caves in northern Borneo (4°N) and from China (approximately 30°N). The model suggests that such phase shifts arise through a different weighting of ITCZ shifts and variations in rainfall intensity, thus providing insight into the mechanisms that drive tropical rainfall changes on orbital time scales.

Can energy fluxes be used to interpret glacial/interglacial precipitation changes in the tropics?

AbstractRecent theoretical advances in the relationship between heat transport and the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) present an elegant framework through which to interpret past changes in tropical precipitation patterns. Using a very large ensemble of climate model simulations, we investigate whether it is possible to use this framework to interpret changes in the position of the ITCZ in response to glacial and interglacial boundary conditions. We find that the centroid of tropical precipitation, which represents the evolution of precipitation in the whole tropics, is best correlated with heat transport changes. We find that the response of the annual mean ITCZ to glacial and interglacial boundary conditions is quite different to the response of the climatological annual cycle of the ITCZ to the seasonal cycle of insolation. We show that the reason for this is that while the Hadley Circulation plays a dominant role in transporting heat over the seasonal cycle, in the annual mean response to forcing, the Hadley Circulation is not dominant. When we look regionally, rather than at the zonal mean, we find that local precipitation is poorly related either to the zonal mean ITCZ or to meridional heat transport. We demonstrate that precipitation is spatially highly variable even when the zonal mean ITCZ is in the same location. This suggests only limited use for heat transport in explaining local precipitation records; thus, there is limited scope for using heat transport changes to explain individual paleoprecipitation records.

Mechanisms rectifying the annual mean response of tropical Atlantic rainfall to precessional forcing

Numerous reconstructions of tropical hydroclimate in the Pleistocene display substantial variability on precessional timescales. Precessionally-induced insolation variations, with a mean period of $${\sim }21{,}000$$ years, affect the strength of the seasonal cycle, but not annual mean insolation. The existence of variations in annual mean climate on precessional timescales therefore hints at the existence of nonlinear mechanisms that rectify the zero annual mean forcing into a non-zero annual mean response. The aim of this study is to identify these nonlinear rectification mechanisms. The traditional view of precessionally-forced precipitation changes is that tropical precipitation increases with summer insolation. By comparing two simulations with an earth system model (CESM1.0.3) we find that this paradigm is true for continental but not for oceanic changes in precipitation. Focusing on the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), we find that the continental temperature and precipitation response to precessional forcing are key rectifiers of annual mean precipitation over the ocean. A boundary layer response to temperature changes over northern Africa affects the meridional position of the ITCZ over the North Atlantic in boreal spring and summer, but not in fall and winter. Over the equatorial and South Atlantic, the intensity of precipitation is strongly impacted by diabatic forcing from the continents through an adjustment of the full troposphere. Although the top of atmosphere insolation forcing is seasonally symmetric, continental precipitation changes are largest in boreal summer, thus skewing the annual mean response. These results show that it is important to take into account the seasonality of climatic forcings, even when studying annual mean climate change.

Improving Climate Change Detection through Optimal Seasonal Averaging: The Case of the North Atlantic Jet and European Precipitation

Abstract The detection of anthropogenic climate change can be improved by recognizing the seasonality in the climate change response. This is demonstrated for the North Atlantic jet [zonal wind at 850 hPa (U850)] and European precipitation responses projected by the climate models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). The U850 future response is characterized by a marked seasonality: an eastward extension of the North Atlantic jet into Europe in November–April and a poleward shift in May–October. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the multimodel mean response in U850 in these two extended seasonal means emerges by 2035–40 for the lower-latitude features and by 2050–70 for the higher-latitude features, relative to the 1960–90 climate. This is 5–15 years earlier than when evaluated in the traditional meteorological seasons (December–February and June–August), and it results from an increase in the signal-to-noise ratio associated with the spatial coherence of the response within the extended seasons. The annual mean response lacks important information on the seasonality of the response without improving the signal-to-noise ratio. The same two extended seasons are demonstrated to capture the seasonality of the European precipitation response to climate change and to anticipate its emergence by 10–20 years. Furthermore, some of the regional responses (such as the Mediterranean precipitation decline and the U850 response in North Africa in the extended winter) are projected to emerge by 2020–25, according to the models with a strong response. Therefore, observations might soon be useful to test aspects of the atmospheric circulation response predicted by some of the CMIP5 models.

Estimating the Anthropogenic Sea Surface Temperature Response Using Pattern Scaling

Abstract This study seeks to derive the sea surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic forcing from observations over the last century, using simple methods inspired from pattern scaling. As in pattern scaling, the spatial response is assumed to scale with global-mean and annual-mean surface temperature. The long-term aim of this work is to generate anthropogenically forced SST and sea ice patterns for the recent past and near-term future, and use them to force atmosphere–land climate models for attribution and prediction purposes. The present work compares estimation methodologies and, within a Monte Carlo framework based on large initial condition ensembles of climate model simulations, examines the robustness of the patterns obtained. The different methods explored here yield a similar SST spatial response, mostly reflecting the observed SST linear trend map. The different methods nevertheless provide distinctive temporal evolution of the global-mean and annual-mean SST response, which in turn affects the temporal evolution of the global-mean and annual-mean air surface temperature simulated in corresponding prescribed SST simulations. The estimated SST spatial response consists mostly of a warming of the midlatitude coasts near the western boundary currents, the tropical Indian Ocean, and the Arctic Ocean. This pattern generally agrees with previously published observational and modeling studies. Based on Monte Carlo analysis of the large ensembles, it is found that between 36% and 56% of its spatial variance results from anthropogenic forcing. Overall, the work herein provides constraints on the uncertainty associated with the spatial variability of an anthropogenically forced component of climate change derived from observations, which can potentially be used for climate attribution and prediction.

Rising atmospheric CO2 leads to large impact of biology on Southern Ocean CO2 uptake via changes of the Revelle factor

The Southern Ocean is a key region for global carbon uptake and is characterized by a strong seasonality with the annual CO2 uptake being mediated by biological carbon drawdown in summer. Here we show that the contribution of biology to CO2 uptake will become even more important until 2100. This is the case even if biological production remains unaltered and can be explained by the decreasing buffer capacity of the ocean as its carbon content increases. The same amount of biological carbon drawdown leads to a more than twice as large reduction in CO2(aq) concentration and hence to a larger CO2 gradient between ocean and atmosphere that drives the gas exchange. While the winter uptake south of 44°S changes little, the summer uptake increases largely and is responsible for the annual mean response. The combination of decreasing buffer capacity and strong seasonality of biological carbon drawdown introduces a strong and increasing seasonality in the anthropogenic carbon uptake.Key PointsDecrease of buffer capacity leads to stronger summer CO2 uptake in the futureBiology will contribute more to future CO2 uptake in Southern OceanSeasonality affects anthropogenic carbon uptake strongly

A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures

Abstract. The last interglaciation (~130 to 116 ka) is a time period with a strong astronomically induced seasonal forcing of insolation compared to the present. Proxy records indicate a significantly different climate to that of the modern, in particular Arctic summer warming and higher eustatic sea level. Because the forcings are relatively well constrained, it provides an opportunity to test numerical models which are used for future climate prediction. In this paper we compile a set of climate model simulations of the early last interglaciation (130 to 125 ka), encompassing a range of model complexities. We compare the simulations to each other and to a recently published compilation of last interglacial temperature estimates. We show that the annual mean response of the models is rather small, with no clear signal in many regions. However, the seasonal response is more robust, and there is significant agreement amongst models as to the regions of warming vs cooling. However, the quantitative agreement of the model simulations with data is poor, with the models in general underestimating the magnitude of response seen in the proxies. Taking possible seasonal biases in the proxies into account improves the agreement, but only marginally. However, a lack of uncertainty estimates in the data does not allow us to draw firm conclusions. Instead, this paper points to several ways in which both modelling and data could be improved, to allow a more robust model–data comparison.

Anthropogenic influence on multidecadal changes in reconstructed global evapotranspiration

Understanding the response of evapotranspiration to global warming should help to predict surface climate, including heatwaves and droughts. This study shows that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and decreasing loadings of anthropogenic (and volcanic) aerosols have led to enhanced evapotranspiration in mid and high latitudes over recent decades. Global warming is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle1, with an increase of both evapotranspiration (EVT) and precipitation. Yet, the magnitude and spatial distribution of this global and annual mean response remains highly uncertain2. Better constraining land EVT in twenty-first-century climate scenarios is critical for predicting changes in surface climate, including heatwaves3 and droughts4, evaluating impacts on ecosystems and water resources5, and designing adaptation policies. Continental scale EVT changes may already be underway6,7, but have never been attributed to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Here we provide global gridded estimates of annual EVT and demonstrate that the latitudinal and decadal differentiation of recent EVT variations cannot be understood without invoking the anthropogenic radiative forcings. In the mid-latitudes, the emerging picture of enhanced EVT confirms the end of the dimming decades8 and highlights the possible threat posed by increasing drought frequency to managing water resources and achieving food security in a changing climate.

The 11 year solar cycle signal in transient simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

The atmospheric response to the 11 year solar cycle (SC) and its combination with the quasi‐biennal oscillation (QBO) are analyzed in four simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 3.5 (WACCM3.5), which were performed with observed sea surface temperatures, volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gases, and a nudged QBO. The analysis focuses on the annual mean response of the model to the SC and on the evolution of the solar signal during the Northern Hemispheric winter. WACCM3.5 simulates a significantly warmer stratosphere under solar maximum conditions compared to solar minimum. The vertical structure of the signal in temperature and ozone at low latitudes agrees with observations better than previous versions of the model. The temperature and wind response in the extratropics is more uncertain because of its seasonal dependence and the large dynamical variability of the polar vortex. However, all four simulations reproduce the observed downward propagation of zonal wind anomalies from the upper stratosphere to the lower stratosphere during boreal winter resulting from solar‐induced modulation of the polar night jet and the Brewer‐Dobson circulation. Combined QBO‐SC effects in the extratropics are consistent with observations, but they are not robust across the ensemble members. During boreal winter, solar signals are also found in tropospheric circulation and surface temperature. Overall, these results confirm the plausibility of proposed dynamical mechanisms driving the atmospheric response to the SC. The improvement of the model climatology and variability in the polar stratosphere is the basis for the success in simulating the evolution and magnitude of the solar signal.

Comparison of climatic efficiency of the mechanisms of land-surface albedo changes caused by land use

Changes in ecosystem types, including situations when natural vegetation is replaced by agricultural lands, leads to surface albedo changes and the development of the corresponding short-wave radiative forcing (RF). This work analyzes ensemble numerical experiments with the climatic model (CM) of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS) for the 16th–21st centuries. The responses to changes in the contents of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols (tropospheric and stratospheric), in the solar constant, and in the land-surface albedo when natural vegetation is replaced by agricultural lands were modeled during these experiments. Different members of these ensemble experiments were obtained by varying the model parameters affecting the RF on the climate during land use: the albedo of agricultural lands was varied within the interval from 0.15 to 0.25 and the parameter controlling the efficiency of snow masking by tree vegetation was varied in the range from the absence of this effect to its maximally possible efficiency. It has been established that changes in surface albedo when natural vegetation is replaced by agricultural lands have the largest influence on the globally averaged annual mean RF at the top of the atmosphere, whereas the influence of snow masking on the RF is substantially less. This phenomenon is caused by the fact that snow masking by tree vegetation can take place only in winter in regions of temperate and high latitudes, when insolation is relatively low. A comparison of the spatial structure of the annual mean response of the surface temperature with the HadCRUT3v and GISS observational data makes it possible to narrow the admissible range of model parameter values. In particular, it can be inferred that the key parameter values which control the influence that land use has on the surface albedo in the IAP RAS CM are close to optimal. In addition, variations in these parameters do not lead to a significant influence of land use on climate change in the 21st century if the Land Use Harmonization (LUH) scenarios of changes in the area of agricultural lands are used: the uncertainty of the model response associated with the uncertainty of values of such controlling parameters in the 21st century does not exceed 0.1 K.

Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source‐receptor relationships for ozone pollution

Understanding the surface O3 response over a “receptor” region to emission changes over a foreign “source” region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O3) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O3 response over east Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA), and south Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O3 precursors, NOx, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surface O3 concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by >10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern United States and Japan. The sum of the O3 responses to NOx, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental‐scale “import sensitivity” as the ratio of the O3 response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus “domestic” (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from the three foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O3 response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7–0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the three foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8–1.6 ppb). High O3 values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O3 levels are typically highest and by the weaker relative response of annual incidences of daily maximum 8‐h average O3 above 60 ppb to emission reductions in a foreign region (<10–20% of that to domestic) as compared to the annual mean response (up to 50% of that to domestic). Applying the ensemble annual mean results to changes in anthropogenic emissions from 1996 to 2002, we estimate a Northern Hemispheric increase in background surface O3 of about 0.1 ppb a−1, at the low end of the 0.1–0.5 ppb a−1 derived from observations. From an additional simulation in which global atmospheric methane was reduced, we infer that 20% reductions in anthropogenic methane emissions from a foreign source region would yield an O3 response in a receptor region that roughly equals that produced by combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic NOx, NMVOC, and CO emissions from the foreign source region.

Influence of volcanic activity on climate change in the past several centuries: Assessments with a climate model of intermediate complexity

The climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) is supplemented by a scheme which takes into account the volcanic forcing of climate. With this model, ensemble experiments have been conducted for the 1600s–1900s, in which, along with the volcanic forcing, the anthropogenic forcing due to greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols and the natural forcing due to variations in solar irradiance were taken into account. The model realistically reproduces the annual mean response of surface air temperature and precipitation to major eruptions both globally and regionally. In particular, the decreases in the annual mean global temperature Tg in the IAP RAS CM after the largest eruptions in the latter half of the 20th century, the Mt. Agung (1963), El Chichon (1982), and Mt. Pinatubo (1991) volcanic eruptions, are 0.28, 0.27, and 0.46 K, respectively, in agreement with estimates from observational data. Moreover, in the IAP RAS CM, the volcanic eruptions result in a general precipitation decrease, especially over land in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The seasonal distribution of the response shows good agreement with observations for high-latitude eruptions and worse agreement for tropical and subtropical volcanoes. On interdecadal scales, volcanism leads to variations in Tg on the order of 0.1 K. In numerical experiments with anthropogenic and natural forcings, the model reproduces a general change in surface air temperature over the past several centuries. Taking into account the volcanic forcing, along with that due to variations in solar irradiance, the model has partly reproduced the nonmonotonic global warming for the 20th century.

Interannual variations of middle atmospheric temperature as measured by the JPL lidar at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (19.5°N, 155.6°W)

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory Rayleigh‐Raman lidar at Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO), Hawaii (19.5°N, 155.6°W) has been measuring atmospheric temperature vertical profiles routinely since 1993. Linear regression analysis was applied to the 13.5‐yearlong (January 1994 to June 2007) deseasonalized monthly mean lidar temperature time series for each 1‐km altitude bin between 15 and 85 km. The regression analysis included components representing the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the 11‐year solar cycle. Where overlapping was possible, the results were compared to those obtained from the twice‐daily National Weather Service (NWS) radiosonde profiles at Hilo (5–30 km) located 60 km east‐north‐east of the lidar site, and the four‐times‐daily temperature analysis of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). The analysis revealed the dominance of the QBO (1–3 K) in the stratosphere and mesosphere, and a strong winter signature of ENSO in the troposphere and lowermost stratosphere (∼1.5 K/MEI). Additionally, and for the first time, a statistically significant signature of ENSO was observed in the mesosphere, consistent with the findings of recent model simulations. The annual mean response to the solar cycle shows two statistically significant maxima of ∼1.3 K/100 F10.7 units at 35 and 55 km. The temperature responses to QBO, ENSO, and solar cycle are all maximized in winter. Comparisons with the global ECMWF temperature analysis clearly showed that the middle atmosphere above MLO is under a subtropical/extratropical regime, i.e., generally out‐of‐phase with that in the equatorial regions, and synchronized to the northern hemisphere winter/spring.

Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed.

Modeling long-term climate changes with equilibrium asynchronous coupling

The use of the equilibrium asynchronous coupling (EAC) scheme is proposed as a strategy to better understand long-term climate changes in a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The EAC scheme requires each component model to be integrated to its equilibrium before being coupled to the other component. Use of this scheme has the distinct advantage of being able to clarify the nature of the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere, because each asynchronous iteration takes the form of a sensitivity experiment. Basic features of the EAC scheme are first studied in an energy balance model. It is found that the convergence rate of the EAC scheme is proportional to the damping rate in the atmosphere or surface ocean, but is inversely proportional to the coupling strength between the ocean and atmosphere. Furthermore, the seasonal cycle response converges much faster than the annual mean response. Using realistic parameters, the seasonal cycle response should converge in a few iterations. The EAC scheme is further applied to a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to study the tropical monsoon climate of the early Holocene. The convergence behavior of the sea surface temperature is found to agree with the theory derived from the energy balance model study. The EAC scheme is further used to investigate the role of ocean-atmosphere feedback in modifying the response of monsoons to orbital forcings in the early Holocene. It is found that the ocean exerts a positive feedback on the North African monsoon, but a negative feedback on the Indian monsoon.

Variations in modeled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions

Carbon dioxide concentrations due to fossil fuel burning and CO2 exchange with the terrestrial biosphere have been modeled with 12 different three‐dimensional atmospheric transport models. The models include both on‐line and off‐line types and use a variety of advection algorithms and subgrid scale parameterizations. A range of model resolutions is also represented. The modeled distributions show a large range of responses. For the experiment using the fossil fuel source, the annual mean meridional gradient at the surface varies by a factor of 2. This suggests a factor of 2 variation in the efficiency of surface interhemispheric exchange as much due to differences in model vertical transport as to horizontal differences. In the upper troposphere, zonal mean gradients within the northern hemisphere vary in sign. In the terrestrial biotic source experiment, the spatial distribution of the amplitude and the phase of the seasonal cycle of surface CO2 concentration vary little between models. However, the magnitude of the amplitudes varies similarly to the fossil case. Differences between modeled and observed seasonal cycles in the northern extratropics suggest that the terrestrial biotic source is overestimated in late spring and underestimated in winter. The annual mean response to the seasonal source also shows large differences in magnitude. The uncertainty in hemispheric carbon budgets implied by the differences in interhemispheric exchange times is comparable to those quoted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for fossil fuel and ocean uptake and smaller than those for terrestrial fluxes. We outline approaches which may reduce this component in CO2 budget uncertainties.

Transient Responses of a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model to Gradual Changes of Atmospheric CO2. Part I. Annual Mean Response

Abstract This study investigates the response of a climate model to a gradual increase or decrease of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The model is a general circulation model of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface system with global geography and seasonal variation of insulation. To offset the bias of the coupled model toward settling into an unrealistic state, the fluxes of heat and water at the ocean-atmosphere interface are adjusted by amounts that vary with season and geography but do not change from one year to the next. Starting from a quasi-equilibrium climate, three numerical time integrations of the coupled model are performed with gradually increasing, constant, and gradually decreasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. It is noted that the simulated response of sea surface temperature is very slow over the northern North Atlantic and the Circumpolar Ocean of the Southern Hemisphere where vertical mixing of water penetrates very deeply. However, in most of the Northern Hemisphere an...