Annual Lake Evaporation Research Articles

Ensemble modeling of global lake evaporation under climate change

Global projections of lake evaporation are typically based on simulations using single mechanistic models. However, because of its complex interactions with various lake physical properties, environmental and anthropogenic drivers, lake evaporation is highly variable and sensitive to the choice of model used. In this study, we present a multi-model analysis to investigate differences across global simulations of lake evaporation during the warm-season using three different lake models driven by outputs from four general circulation models (GCM) (i.e. 12 model combinations in total) for historic and future scenarios. Our results suggest substantial differences among lake-climate model simulations of lake evaporation. These differences varied throughout the 20th and 21st century, with model driver data explaining 74% of the variance in future projections of warm-season lake evaporation. Our projections indicate that, by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), global annual lake evaporation rates will increase by 10–27% under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. We highlight the importance of using a multi-model approach for the prediction of future global lake evaporation responses to climate change.

Evaporation variability and its control factors of Lake Taihu from 1958 to 2017

湖泊蒸发对气候变化非常敏感, 是水文循环响应气候变化的指示因子, 因此研究湖泊蒸发的控制因素, 对于理解区域水文循环有重要意义. 本文利用太湖中尺度涡度通量网避风港站观测数据校正JRA-55再分析资料, 驱动CLM4.0-LISSS模型, 并利用2012—2017年涡度相关通量数据和湖表面温度数据检验模型模拟蒸发结果, 验证了该模型在太湖的适用性; 估算了1958—2017年间太湖的湖面蒸发量, 并利用Manner-Kendall趋势检验分析了湖面蒸发的变化趋势, 寻找太湖实际蒸发的年际变化的主控因子. 结果如下: 校正后的JRA-55再分析资料模拟的太湖蒸发与观测值之间存在季节偏差, 但是季节偏差在年尺度上相互抵消, 再分析资料可用于年际尺度太湖蒸发变化的模拟; 1958—2017年间太湖蒸发量以1977年为界, 先下降(-3.6 mm/a), 后增加(2.3 mm/a); 多元逐步回归结果表明, 向下的短波辐射是太湖1958—2017年间太湖蒸发变化的主控因子, 向下的长波辐射、气温、比湿也对湖泊蒸发年际变化有一定影响, 但是风速对蒸发量的年际变化影响不大.;Lake evaporation is sensitive to climate change and can indicate the response of hydrological cycle to climate change, therefore investigating the mechanism controlling lake evaporation is vital to understand regional hydrological cycle. In this study, evaporation over Lake Taihu was simulated using the CLM4-LISSS model driven by calibrated Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) data. The model was calibrated against the lake evaporation measured directly with the eddy covariance method from 2012 to 2017. The long-term trend of annual evaporation over Lake Taihu was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall trend test, and the dominant factors controlling the interannual variability were extracted using the multiple stepwise regression method. The results indicated obvious seasonal biases between the lake evaporation simulated using the calibrated JRA-55 reanalysis data as inputs, but the bias was offset at the annual time scale, which suggested that the calibrated JRA-55 reanalysis data can be used to simulate the annual lake evaporation over Lake Taihu. Regarding the historical trend of evaporation over Lake Taihu, the year of 1977 can be viewed as a transition year, while annual lake evaporation decreased from 1958 to 1977 (-3.6 mm/a) and increased after then (2.3 mm/a). The results of multiple stepwise regression revealed that solar radiation was the dominant contributor to the interannual variability of lake evaporation over Lake Taihu during 1958-2017, and sky longwave radiation, air temperature and specific humidity also influenced lake evaporation, with limit effect from wind speed.

Investigation of dynamic lake changes in Zhuonai Lake–Salt Lake Basin, Hoh Xil, using remote sensing images in response to climate change (1989–2018)

Abstract The area covered by the four lakes in the Zhuonai Lake–Salt Lake Basin in Hoh Xil (Zhuonai Lake, Kusai Lake, Heidinor Lake, and Salt Lake) has changed significantly over the past 30 years. In this study, remote sensing image data gathered via the Landsat thematic mapper, enhanced thematic mapper plus, and operational land imager from 1989 to 2018 were used to extract the areal parameters of four lakes. The total area of the four lakes had increased by 18% in the past 30 years due to climate change. Interpolated results based on the meteorological data from 28 meteorological stations in the basin were used for trend analysis. A single-layer lake evaporation model was utilized to study the changes in the annual lake evaporation in the basin. The annual lake evaporation slightly increased from 1989 to 1995, followed by a sharp decrease from 1995 to 2018. From 1989 to 2018, the annual evaporation in the basin ranged between 615.37 and 921.66 mm, with a mean of 769.73 mm. A mass balance model was developed to estimate the changes in the lake volumes due to precipitation and evaporation. The increase in precipitation and the decrease in the annual lake evaporation promote the expansion of the four lakes. Lake evaporation is the main factor inducing changes in the lake areas.

Radiation Controls the Interannual Variability of Evaporation of a Subtropical Lake

AbstractDoes lake evaporation increase or decrease under the scenario of climate warming? This paper aims to answer this question by investigating the controlling mechanism of interannual variations in lake evaporation at a subtropical lake. The research methodology is based on continuous eddy covariance measurement over >7 years and a diagnostic analysis using the surface energy balance principle. The results indicate that lake evaporation was enhanced mainly by increasing energy inputs including solar radiation and incoming longwave radiation and was weakened by surface feedback through outgoing longwave radiation. The incoming longwave radiation was positively correlated with cloud cover. Bowen ratio and surface albedo had slight effect on the change of lake evaporation. The annual lake evaporation can be predicted by the Priestly‐Taylor model using a larger coefficient of 1.39 than the original value of 1.26, suggesting that advection or entrainment in the atmospheric boundary layer may play a role in lake evaporation.

Modelling Lake Titicaca's daily and monthly evaporation

Abstract. Lake Titicaca is a crucial water resource in the central part of the Andean mountain range, and it is one of the lakes most affected by climate warming. Since surface evaporation explains most of the lake's water losses, reliable estimates are paramount to the prediction of global warming impacts on Lake Titicaca and to the region's water resource planning and adaptation to climate change. Evaporation estimates were done in the past at monthly time steps and using the four methods as follows: water balance, heat balance, and the mass transfer and Penman's equations. The obtained annual evaporation values showed significant dispersion. This study used new, daily frequency hydro-meteorological measurements. Evaporation losses were calculated following the mentioned methods using both daily records and their monthly averages to assess the impact of higher temporal resolution data in the evaporation estimates. Changes in the lake heat storage needed for the heat balance method were estimated based on the morning water surface temperature, because convection during nights results in a well-mixed top layer every morning over a constant temperature depth. We found that the most reliable method for determining the annual lake evaporation was the heat balance approach, although the Penman equation allows for an easier implementation based on generally available meteorological parameters. The mean annual lake evaporation was found to be 1700 mm year−1. This value is considered an upper limit of the annual evaporation, since the main study period was abnormally warm. The obtained upper limit lowers by 200 mm year−1, the highest evaporation estimation obtained previously, thus reducing the uncertainty in the actual value. Regarding the evaporation estimates using daily and monthly averages, these resulted in minor differences for all methodologies.

Global lake evaporation accelerated by changes in surface energy allocation in a warmer climate

Lake evaporation is a sensitive indicator of the hydrological response to climate change. Variability in annual lake evaporation has been assumed to be controlled primarily by the incoming surface solar radiation. Here we report simulations with a numerical model of lake surface fluxes, with input data based on a high-emissions climate change scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). In our simulations, the global annual lake evaporation increases by 16% by the end of the century, despite little change in incoming solar radiation at the surface. We attribute about half of this projected increase to two effects: periods of ice cover are shorter in a warmer climate and the ratio of sensible to latent heat flux decreases, thus channelling more energy into evaporation. At low latitudes, annual lake evaporation is further enhanced because the lake surface warms more slowly than the air, leading to more long-wave radiation energy available for evaporation. We suggest that an analogous change in the ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes in the open ocean can help to explain some of the spread among climate models in terms of their sensitivity of precipitation to warming. We conclude that an accurate prediction of the energy balance at the Earth’s surface is crucial for evaluating the hydrological response to climate change.

An Experimental Investigation of Kinetic Fractionation of Open‐Water Evaporation Over a Large Lake

AbstractThe oxygen isotopes of water (H218O and H216O) are tracers widely used for the investigation of Earth science problems. The tracer applications are based on the premise that the 18O/16O ratio of open‐water evaporation (δ18OE) can be calculated from environmental conditions. A long‐standing issue concerns the role of kinetic fractionation, or diffusion transport, in the evaporation process. Here we deployed an optical instrument at a large lake (area 2,400 km2) to make in situ measurement of δ18O and δD of atmospheric vapor, then determined δ18O and δD of open‐water evaporation using the gradient‐diffusion method. Our results show a much weaker kinetic effect than suggested by the kinetic factor εk adopted in some previous studies of lake hydrology (14.2‰). By incorporating into the H218O isotopic mass balance of the lake a lower εk value (about 6.2‰) used for ocean evaporation in global climate models, we obtain an annual lake evaporation rate that agrees with an independent eddy‐covariance observation, but the rate is 72% higher than if the commonly used lake εk value of 14.2‰ is applied. The applicability of this results to small lakes is uncertain and in need of field‐based assessment.

Trends in evaporation of a large subtropical lake

How rising temperature and changing solar radiation affect evaporation of natural water bodies remains poor understood. In this study, evaporation from Lake Taihu, a large (area 2400 km2) freshwater lake in the Yangtze River Delta, China, was simulated by the CLM4-LISSS offline lake model and estimated with pan evaporation data. Both methods were calibrated against lake evaporation measured directly with eddy covariance in 2012. Results show a significant increasing trend of annual lake evaporation from 1979 to 2013, at a rate of 29.6 mm decade−1 according to the lake model and 25.4 mm decade−1 according to the pan method. The mean annual evaporation during this period shows good agreement between these two methods (977 mm according to the model and 1007 mm according to the pan method). A stepwise linear regression reveals that downward shortwave radiation was the most significant contributor to the modeled evaporation trend, while air temperature was the most significant contributor to the pan evaporation trend. Wind speed had little impact on the modeled lake evaporation but had a negative contribution to the pan evaporation trend offsetting some of the temperature effect. Reference evaporation was not a good proxy for the lake evaporation because it was on average 20.6 % too high and its increasing trend was too large (56.5 mm decade−1).

Changing thermal dynamics of lakes in the Great Lakes region: Role of ice cover feedbacks

The impacts of climate variability and lake ice cover feedbacks on the seasonal thermal dynamics of inland lakes were evaluated for the period of 1916–2007. Analysis of regional scale impacts for the small inland lakes remains a major challenge in the Great Lakes region due to lack of observations at regional scale. Regional lakes were included into a land surface modeling perspective to understand the roles of climate variability on their open water season dynamics. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was applied with a physically based lake algorithm to simulate thermal conditions of lakes at regional scale during the open water period. Prior to its implementation, the VIC model was evaluated for lake surface water temperature in the selected lakes within the study domain. Results suggested that the cold (October–May) and spring (March–May) season air temperatures have increased by 1.38 and 1.54 °C, respectively during the period of 1916–2007. Increase in air temperature was statistically significant at the regional scale. Onset of the stratified season has occurred earlier by more than five days during the period of 1916–2007. Earlier onset of the stratified season was significantly related to the length of the stratified season, thermal storage in the lakes, and mean lake surface water temperatures. The combined impacts of increased air temperature and earlier onset of the stratified season led to increased heat storage in lakes by 82.5 × 10 16 J. Degree-days above 15 and 20 °C also increased by 97.5 and 33.0 degree-days during the period of 1916–2007. The lake ice cover was significantly related with the annual lake evaporation, timing of ice formation and break-up in lakes, and heat storage during the spring and summer. Results suggested the climate warming may lead to increased rate of evaporation that is driven by feedbacks of ice cover and snow storage.

Estimation of potential evapotranspiration in the mountainous Panama Canal watershed

AbstractSpatially distributed hydrometeorological and plant information within the mountainous tropical Panama Canal watershed is used to estimate parameters of the Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration formulation. Hydrometeorological data from a few surface climate stations located at low elevations in the watershed are complemented by (a) typical wet‐ and dry‐season fields of temperature, wind, water vapour and pressure produced by a mesoscale atmospheric model with a 3 × 3 km2 spatial and hourly temporal resolution, and (b) leaf area index fields estimated over the watershed during a few years using satellite data with two different spatial and temporal resolutions. The mesoscale model estimates of spatially distributed surface hydrometeorological variables provide the basis for the extrapolation of the surface climate station data to produce input for the Penman–Monteith equation. The satellite information and existing digital spatial databases of land use and land cover form the basis for the estimation of Penman–Monteith spatially distributed parameter values. Spatially distributed 3 × 3 km2 potential evapotranspiration estimates are obtained for the 3300 km2 Panama Canal watershed. Estimates for Gatun Lake within the watershed are found to reproduce well the monthly and annual lake evaporation obtained from submerged pans. Sensitivity analysis results of potential evapotranspiration estimates with respect to cloud cover, dew formation, leaf area index distribution and mesoscale model estimates of surface climate are presented and discussed. The main conclusion is that even the limited spatially distributed hydrometeorological and plant information used in this study contributes significantly toward explaining the substantial spatial variability of potential evapotranspiration in the watershed. These results also allow the determination of key locations within the watershed where additional surface stations may be profitably placed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Seasonal Water Balance of the Lake Bosten in Xinjiang, CHlNA.

A seasonal water balance of the lake Bosten is evaluated based on the calculation of the monthly water budgets during the year of Mach 1983 to February 1984. Details are given of the method to calculate the monthly lake's evaporation and the seasonal pattern of groundwater of the lake. The proportion of seasonal evaporation to the annual evaporation is 35.4% in spring, 33.0% in summer, 19.4% in autumn and 12.2% in winter, respectively. The highest value of the evaporation appears in April and May. On the basis of water balance model, it is found that the water exchange between the lake and the groundwater is sensitive to the activities of agriculture irrigation and the seasonal changes of evapotranspiration in the surrounding region. The lake water supplies the groundwater to the surrounding region during the warm period (e.g. from June to October 1983), and is supplied by the groundwater during the cold period (e.g. November 1983 to May 1984). During March 1983 to February 1984, the annual lake's evaporation was 9.31×108m3, and the annual net discharge of the groundwater into the lake was 0.51×108m3 approximately.

Weekly, monthly and annual evaporations for Elk City Lake

Weekly evaporations over a period of 11 years for Elk City Lake in Southeast Kansas are estimated by using the mass-transfer method. A mathematical model is developed for the weekly evaporation series. The model consists of a deterministic periodic component and a stochastic component, represented, respectively, by a Fourier approximation and an ARMA model. Monthly and annual lake evaporations are also obtained. A comparison of the distribution of the mean monthly lake evaporation with that for Class-A pan evaporation shows clearly the hysteresis effect of heat storage in the lake. The estimated annual lake evaporation at a 2% chance of exceedence is 1713.2 mm with a standard deviation of 131.0 mm. The effects of errors in the estimated model parameters and the input variables to the mass-transfer equation on evaporation estimates are determined through sensitivity analyses.

Reply [to “Comment on “Comparison of techniques for estimating annual lake evaporation using climatological data” by M. E. Andersen and H. E. Jobson”

Water Resources ResearchVolume 19, Issue 5 p. 1355-1357 Commentaries Reply [to “Comment on “Comparison of techniques for estimating annual lake evaporation using climatological data” by M. E. Andersen and H. E. Jobson”] M. E. Andersen, M. E. AndersenSearch for more papers by this authorH. E. Jobson, H. E. JobsonSearch for more papers by this author M. E. Andersen, M. E. AndersenSearch for more papers by this authorH. E. Jobson, H. E. JobsonSearch for more papers by this author First published: October 1983 https://doi.org/10.1029/WR019i005p01355AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL No abstract is available for this article. Volume19, Issue5October 1983Pages 1355-1357 RelatedInformation

Operational estimates of lake evaporation

The complementary relationship between areal and potential evapotranspiration takes into account the changes in the temperature and humidity of the air as it passes from a land environment to a lake environment. Minor changes convert the latest version of the complementary relationship areal evapotranspiration (CRAE) models to a complementary relationship lake evaporation (CRLE) model. The ability of the CRLE model to produce reliable estimates of annual lake evaporation from monthly values of temperature, humidity and sunshine duration (or global radiation) observed in the land environment with no locally optimized coefficients is tested against comparable water-budget estimates for 11 lakes in North America and Africa. Maps of annual lake evaporation and annual net reservoir evaporation (i.e. the difference between lake evaporation and areal evapotranspiration) for the part of Canada to the east of the Pacific Divide and for the southern U.S.A. are presented. An approximate routing technique, which takes into account the effects of depth and salinity on the seasonal pattern of monthly lake evaporation, is formulated and tested against comparable water-budget estimates for 10 lakes in North America and Africa. The results indicate that the CRLE model, with its associated routing technique, is much superior to the other techniques in current use that rely on climatological or pan observations in the land environment.

Comment on “Comparison of techniques for estimating annual lake evaporation using climatological data” by M. E. Andersen and H. E. Jobson

Comment on “Comparison of techniques for estimating annual lake evaporation using climatological data” by M. E. Andersen and H. E. Jobson

Comparison of techniques for estimating annual lake evaporation using climatological data

Mean annual evaporation estimates were determined for 30 lakes by use of a numerical model (Morton, 1979) and by use of an evaporation map prepared by the U.S. Weather Service (Kohler et al., 1959). These estimates were compared to the reported value of evaporation determined from measurements on each lake. Various lengths of observation and methods of measurement were used among the 30 lakes. The evaporation map provides annual evaporation estimates which are more consistent with observations than those determined by use of the numerical model. The map cannot provide monthly estimates, however, and is only available for the contiguous United States. The numerical model can provide monthly estimates for shallow lakes and is based on monthly observations of temperature, humidity, and sunshine duration.

Estimation of evaporation from the lake of the Aswan High Dam (Lake Nasser) based on measurements over the lake

Monthly values of evaporation from the lake of the Aswan High Dam (Lake Nasser) were estimated by the heat budget and bulk aerodynamic methods, using average monthly estimates of different meteorological elements over the Lake based on measurements taken during survey trips over the Lake in different months of the period 1970–1971. Monthly evaporation was calculated as the average of estimates by both methods. Annual lake evaporation is about 7.4 mm day −1 with maximum evaporation in June (10.9 mm day −1 ) and minimum evaporation in January (3.8 mm day −1 ). The annual evaporation is about 13% higher than the annual incoming net radiation. At the average Lake surface level of 175 m above mean sea level, the total water loss by evaporation should not be more than 14 × 10 9) m 3, which is about 11% of the lake water content.

Climatological estimates of lake evaporation

A model for estimating areal evaporation and transpiration is modified slightly to provide estimates of annual lake evaporation from monthly observations of temperature, humidity, and sunshine duration (or radiation) in the land environment. The model estimates tend to be higher than the more conventional estimates in humid areas and lower in arid areas, with the latter tendency particularly noticeable in the case of Lake Nasser on the Nile River. However, the results agree very well with comparable water budget estimates for Lake Hefner in Oklahoma, the Salton Sea and Silver Lake in California, Pyramid and Winnemucca lakes in Nevada, Lake Ontario on the border between New York and Ontario, and Dauphin Lake in Manitoba. They also compare reasonably well with energy budget estimates of the evaporation from Lake Mead on the border between Arizona and Nevada when the net inflow of heat is taken into account. A technique that provides such realistic results over a wide range of depths and environments with readily available data should prove very useful in water resource or environmental impact studies. Examples of such uses are provided by maps of Canada and the southeastern United States that show average annual values of the lake evaporation, and average annual values of the difference between the evaporation from a projected reservoir, and the combined evaporation and transpiration from the area before flooding.

Technical note no. 126: Comparison between pan and lake evaporation

The complementary relationship between areal and potential evapotranspiration takes into account the changes in the temperature and humidity of the air as it passes from a land environment to a lake environment. Minor changes convert the latest version of the complementary relationship areal evapotranspiration (CRAE) models to a complementary relationship lake evaporation (CRLE) model. The ability of the CRLE model to produce reliable estimates of annual lake evaporation from monthly values of temperature, humidity and sunshine duration (or global radiation) observed in the land environment with no locally optimized coefficients is tested against comparable water-budget estimates for 11 lakes in North America and Africa. Maps of annual lake evaporation and annual net reservoir evaporation (i.e. the difference between lake evaporation and areal evapotranspiration) for the part of Canada to the east of the Pacific Divide and for the southern U.S.A. are presented. An approximate routing technique, which takes into account the effects of depth and salinity on the seasonal pattern of monthly lake evaporation, is formulated and tested against comparable water-budget estimates for 10 lakes in North America and Africa. The results indicate that the CRLE model, with its associated routing technique, is much superior to the other techniques in current use that rely on climatological or pan observations in the land environment.

Computing lake evaporation in Illinois

A detailed study of lake evaporation in Illinois has been made utilizing a technique developed by the United States Weather Bureau. Monthly lake evaporation and pan evaporation have been computed for a 52‐year period utilizing parameters of air temperature, dewpoint, solar radiation, and wind movement. Records of seven weather stations in and around Illinois were used. The results were checked against observed pan evaporation data for various periods of years available at seven locations. The resulting map of annual lake evaporation in Illinois is based on considerably more information than was previously available and permits more efficient design and operation of water supply impoundments. (Key words: Computers, digital; evaporation; lakes; reservoirs; water management.)