Annual HIV Incidence Research Articles

Racism, homophobia, and the sexual health of young Black men who have sex with men in the United States: A systematic review.

Black gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (BMSM) experience the highest rates of HIV acquisition annually out of any population in the United States, and young BMSM (YBMSM) are heavily impacted by this inequity as they enter adulthood. Despite a high annual HIV incidence, extant literature has found BMSM to engage in fewer sexual risk behaviors than White and Hispanic/Latino men who have sex with men, resulting in a gap between risk behaviors and the inequity of HIV infection. Structural factors, such as racism and homophobia, are thus being examined in order to understand this disconnect between behavior and HIV incidence. The purpose of this systematic review was to examine the discrimination experiences of YBMSM due to racism and homophobia in the United States and to evaluate the effect of these experiences on their sexual health. Four databases (MEDLINE, CINAHL Complete, APA PsycINFO, and Sociology Source Ultimate) were searched to examine the available qualitative, quantitative, and mixed method studies relevant to the research question. Out of 17 included studies, the majority were qualitative in design and were conducted in urban settings. Racism and homophobia affected YBMSM's sense of belonging, sexual identity, and sexual partnership choices. Often, masculinity would interact with these two constructs to impact how YBMSM engaged in sexual behavior, such as condomless sex, as well as their likelihood to seek sexual health care. Future research is needed to fully understand the relationships between discrimination and sexual health to develop effective structurally responsive interventions that will help decrease the inequities experienced by YBMSM.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on HIV Testing, Recent Infections, and Annualized Incidence Among Cisgender Men Who Have Sex With Men and Transgender Women in Brazil.

The COVID-19 pandemic had great impact on HIV care and prevention worldwide, including in Brazil. We compared HIV testing, recent infection, and annualized incidence according to the COVID-19 pandemic period among cisgender men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW). HIV and sexually transmitted infection testing, prevention, and treatment referral service in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We used Maxim HIV-1 Limiting Antigen Avidity EIA as part of a recent infection testing algorithm to identify recent HIV infection cases and estimate annualized HIV incidences in the pre- (March 2018-February 2020) and post-COVID-19 pandemic onset period (March 2020-January 2022). Multivariable logistic regression model assessed factors associated with recent HIV infection. Among 3814 MSM and 776 TGW, 593 (12.9%) tested positive for HIV and 119 (2.6%) were identified as having recent infection. Percentage of recent HIV infection did not differ between the COVID-19 periods. Overall annualized HIV incidence rates were 6.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.2 to 7.7) and 6.6% (95% CI: 4.3 to 9.0) in the pre- and post-COVID-19 periods, respectively. During the post-COVID-19 period, higher incidence rates were observed among TGW (8.4% [95% CI: 2.9 to 13.9]), those aged 18-24 years (7.8% [95% CI: 4.0 to 11.7]), of Black race (7.9% [95% CI: 3.8 to 12.0]), and those with <12 years of schooling (7.8% [95% CI: 4.8 to 10.8]). Compared to the pre-COVID-19 period, incidence rates were significantly higher in the post-COVID-19 period for those aged >30 years and TGW, while being lower for those with more years of schooling. HIV incidence estimates remain high among MSM and TGW in Brazil, especially among the most vulnerable. The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the HIV epidemic will likely persist and contribute to worsening HIV outcomes.

Recent HIV infection and annualized HIV incidence rates among sexual and gender minorities in Brazil and Peru (ImPrEP seroincidence study): a cross-sectional, multicenter study

HIV incidence estimation is critical for monitoring the HIV epidemic dynamics and the effectiveness of public health prevention interventions. We aimed to identify sexual and gender minorities (SGM) with recent HIV infections, factors associated with recent HIV infection, and to estimate annualised HIV incidence rates. Cross-sectional multicentre study in HIV testing services in Brazil and Peru (15 cities). Inclusion criteria: 18+ years, SGM assigned male at birth, not using pre-/post-exposure prophylaxis. We identified recent HIV infection using the Maxim HIV-1 LAg-Avidity EIA assay as part of a recent infection testing algorithm (RITA). Annualized HIV incidence was calculated using the UNAIDS/WHO incidence estimator tool. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate factors associated with recent HIV infection. Trial registration: NCT05674682. From 31-Jan-2021 to 29-May-2022, 6899 individuals participated [Brazil: 4586 (66.5%); Peru: 2313 (33.5%)]; 5946 (86.2%) cisgender men, 751 (10.9%) transgender women and 202 (2.9%) non-binary/gender diverse. Median age was 27 (IQR: 23-34) years. HIV prevalence was 11.4% (N=784/6899); 137 (2.0%) SGM were identified with recent HIV infection. The overall annualized HIV incidence rate was 3.88% (95% CI: 2.86-4.87); Brazil: 2.62% (95% CI: 1.78-3.43); Peru: 6.69% (95% CI: 4.62-8.69). Participants aged 18-24 years had higher odds of recent HIV infection compared to those aged 30+ years in both countries. Our results highlight the significant burden of HIV epidemic among SGM in large urban centres of Brazil and Peru. Public health policies and interventions to increase access to effective HIV prevention methods such as PrEP are urgently needed in Latin America. Unitaid, WHO (Switzerland), Ministry of Health from Brazil and Peru.

Population-level effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention among men who have sex with men in Montréal (Canada): a modelling study of surveillance and survey data.

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been recommended and partly subsidized in Québec, Canada, since 2013. We evaluated the population-level impact of PrEP on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Montréal, Québec's largest city, over 2013-2021. We used an agent-based mathematical model of sexual HIV transmission to estimate the fraction of HIV acquisitions averted by PrEP compared to a counterfactual scenario without PrEP. The model was calibrated to local MSM survey, surveillance, and cohort data and accounted for COVID-19 pandemic impacts on sexual activity, HIV prevention, and care. PrEP was modelled from 2013 onwards, assuming 86% individual-level effectiveness. The PrEP eligibility criteria were: any anal sex unprotected by condoms (past 6 months) and either multiple partnerships (past 6 months) or multiple uses of post-exposure prophylaxis (lifetime). To assess potential optimization strategies, we modelled hypothetical scenarios prioritizing PrEP to MSM with high sexual activity (≥11 anal sex partners annually) or aged ⩽45 years, increasing coverage to levels achieved in Vancouver, Canada (where PrEP is free-of-charge), and improving retention. Over 2013-2021, the estimated annual HIV incidence decreased from 0.4 (90% credible interval [CrI]: 0.3-0.6) to 0.2 (90% CrI: 0.1-0.2) per 100 person-years. PrEP coverage among HIV-negative MSM remained low until 2015 (<1%). Afterwards, coverage increased to a maximum of 10% of all HIV-negative MSM, or about 16% of the 62% PrEP-eligible HIV-negative MSM in 2020. Over 2015-2021, PrEP averted an estimated 20% (90% CrI: 11%-30%) of cumulative HIV acquisitions. The hypothetical scenarios modelled showed that, at the same coverage level, prioritizing PrEP to high sexual activity MSM could have averted 30% (90% CrI: 19%-42%) of HIV acquisitions from 2015-2021. Even larger impacts could have resulted from higher coverage. Under the provincial eligibility criteria, reaching 10% coverage among HIV-negative MSM in 2015 and 30% in 2019, like attained in Vancouver, could have averted up to 63% (90% CrI: 54%-70%) of HIV acquisitions from 2015 to 2021. PrEP reduced population-level HIV transmission among Montréal MSM. However, our study suggests missed prevention opportunities and adds support for public policies that reduce PrEP barriers, financial or otherwise, to MSM at risk of HIV acquisition.

Trends in HIV prevalence, incidence, and progress towards the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in Malawi among individuals aged 15–64 years: population-based HIV impact assessments, 2015−16 and 2020−21

In 2014, UNAIDS set the goal of ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 through the achievement of testing and treatment cascade targets. To evaluate progress achieved and highlight persisting gaps in HIV epidemic control in Malawi, we aimed to compare key indicators (prevalence, incidence, viral load suppression, and UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets) from the 2015-16 and 2020-21 Malawi Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) survey results. The Malawi PHIAs were nationally representative, cross-sectional surveys with a two-stage cluster sampling design. The first survey was conducted between Nov 27, 2015, and Aug 26, 2016; the second survey was conducted between Jan 15, 2020, and April 26, 2021. Our analysis included survey participants aged 15-64 years. Participants were interviewed and a 14 mL blood sample was collected and tested for HIV infection using the national rapid testing algorithm. For each survey, we estimated key HIV epidemic indicators and achievement of 95-95-95 targets. The risk ratio (RR) of the indicators between surveys were computed and considered significant at a confidence level of 0·05. All results were weighted, and self-reported awareness and treatment status were adjusted to account for detection of antiretrovirals. Our analysis included 17 187 participants aged 15-64 years in 2015-16 and 21 208 in 2020-21 who participated in the surveys and blood draw. In the 2020-21 survey, 88·4% (95% CI 86·7-90·0) of people living with HIV were aware of their HIV-positive status; of those aware, 97·8% (97·1-98·5) were on antiretroviral therapy; and of those on treatment, 96·9% (95·9-97·7) were virally suppressed. Between surveys, the national HIV prevalence decreased significantly from 10·6% (10·0-11·2) to 8·9% (8·4-9·5) with RR 0·85 (95% CI 0·78-0·92; p<0·0001). The annual HIV incidence decreased from 0·37% (0·20-0·53) to 0·22% (0·11-0·34) with RR 0·61 (95% CI 0·31-1·20; p=0·15). The population viral load suppression increased from 68·3% (66·0-70·7) in 2015-16 to 87·0% (85·3-88·5) in 2020-21 (RR 1·27 [95% CI 1·22-1·32]; p<0·0001). These results suggest that Malawi had already surpassed the UNAIDS viral load suppression target for 2030 (85·7%) by 2020-21. Through strategies and evidence-informed interventions implemented in the last half decade, especially scale-up of effective HIV treatment, Malawi has made tremendous progress, including decreasing HIV prevalence and incidence and achieving both the second and third 95 targets ahead of 2030. To address the first 95, efforts in HIV diagnosis should focus on males and younger age groups. There is a continued need for effective linkage to care, retention on antiretroviral therapy, and adherence support to maintain and build on progress. US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Risk Factors Associated with HIV Acquisition in Males Participating in HIV Vaccine Efficacy Trials in South Africa

In South Africa, HIV acquisition risk has been studied less in people assigned male at birth. We studied the associations between risk behaviors, clinical features and HIV incidence amongst males in two South African HIV preventive vaccine efficacy trials. We used Cox proportional hazards models to test for associations between demographics, sexual behaviors, clinical variables and HIV acquisition among males followed in the HVTN 503 (n = 219) and HVTN 702 (n = 1611) trials. Most males reported no male sexual partners (99.09% in HVTN 503) or identified as heterosexual (88.08% in HVTN 702). Annual HIV incidence was 1.39% in HVTN 503 (95% CI 0.76–2.32%) and 1.33% in HVTN 702 (95% CI 0.80–2.07%). Increased HIV acquisition was significantly associated with anal sex (HR 6.32, 95% CI 3.44–11.62), transactional sex (HR 3.42, 95% CI 1.80–6.50), and non-heterosexual identity (HR 16.23, 95%CI 8.13–32.41) in univariate analyses and non-heterosexual identity (HR 14.99, 95% CI 4.99–45.04; p < 0.01) in multivariate analysis. It is appropriate that prevention efforts in South Africa, although focused on the severe epidemic in young women, also encompass key male populations, including men who have sex with men, but also men who engage in anal or transactional sex.

Trends in HIV/AIDS incidence rate in Mississippi, 2008-2019

Background and objectives: Despite the decline in new HIV infection across the United States, Mississippi is still experiencing high rates of new HIV infections. Reports highlighted significant variations by geographical locations and socio-demographic factors. This study examined trends of HIV/AIDS incidence rates in Mississippi from 2008 to 2019. Materials and methods: Data on HIV/AIDS diagnosis were extracted from Mississippi Enhanced HIV/AIDS Reporting System database. Data were cleaned and de-identified using Microsoft Excel and SAS 9.4. Overall and annual age-adjusted HIV and AIDS incidence rates were calculated by sex, race, and age using 2000 US population. Annual Percentage Change (APC) and Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) were analyzed using Joinpoint regression models. Results: Overall, HIV incidence rate declined from 25.0 in 2008 to 18.79 per 100,000 population in 2019 (24.8% decrease) while AIDS incidence increased from 6.4 in 2008 to 8.2 per 100,000 population in 2019 (28.1% increase). Comparison between sexes of all age groups showed a downward trend of new HIV infection (AAPC: Male:-1.50, Female:-5.17) and an upward trend of AIDS incidence (AAPC: Male: 1.90, Female: 3.70). Age adjusted HIV incidence declined by 26.8% and 12.4% among blacks and whites respectively (AAPC: Blacks: -2.8, Whites:-1.0) but there was no significant change in age-adjusted AIDS incidence among both races from 2008-2019. Conclusion: This study indicated that age-adjusted HIV incidence rate is declining in Mississippi but trends differ by race, gender, and age. More interventions aimed at ensuring early diagnosis, proper linkage to care and preventing the progression of HIV to AIDS particularly among at-risk population are needed in Mississippi. IMC J Med Sci. 2023; 17(2):002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55010/imcjms.17.012 *Correspondence: Adetoun F. Asala, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, 350 W Woodrow Wilson Dr, Jackson, MS 39213. Email: adetoun.f.asala@students.jsums.edu

Evaluating the sensitivity of jurisdictional heterogeneity and jurisdictional mixing in national level HIV prevention analyses: context of the U.S. ending the HIV epidemic plan

BackgroundThe U.S. Ending the HIV epidemic (EHE) plan aims to reduce annual HIV incidence by 90% by 2030, by first focusing interventions on 57 regions (EHE jurisdictions) that contributed to more than 50% of annual HIV diagnoses. Mathematical models that project HIV incidence evaluate the impact of interventions and inform intervention decisions. However, current models are either national level, which do not consider jurisdictional heterogeneity, or independent jurisdiction-specific, which do not consider cross jurisdictional interactions. Data suggests that a significant proportion of persons have sexual partnerships outside their own jurisdiction. However, the sensitivity of these jurisdictional interactions on model outcomes and intervention decisions hasn’t been studied.MethodsWe developed an ordinary differential equations based compartmental model to generate national-level projections of HIV in the U.S., through dynamic simulations of 96 epidemiological sub-models representing 54 EHE and 42 non-EHE jurisdictions. A Bernoulli equation modeled HIV-transmissions using a mixing matrix to simulate sexual partnerships within and outside jurisdictions. To evaluate sensitivity of jurisdictional interactions on model outputs, we analyzed 16 scenarios, combinations of a) proportion of sexual partnerships mixing outside jurisdiction: no-mixing, low-level-mixing-within-state, high-level-mixing-within-state, or high-level-mixing-within-and-outside-state; b) jurisdictional heterogeneity in care and demographics: homogenous or heterogeneous; and c) intervention assumptions for 2019–2030: baseline or EHE-plan (diagnose, treat, and prevent).ResultsChange in incidence in mixing compared to no-mixing scenarios varied by EHE and non-EHE jurisdictions and aggregation-level. When assuming jurisdictional heterogeneity and baseline-intervention, the change in aggregated incidence ranged from − 2 to 0% for EHE and 5 to 21% for non-EHE, but within each jurisdiction it ranged from − 31 to 46% for EHE and − 18 to 109% for non-EHE. Thus, incidence estimates were sensitive to jurisdictional mixing more at the jurisdictional level. As a result, jurisdiction-specific HIV-testing intervals inferred from the model to achieve the EHE-plan were also sensitive, e.g., when no-mixing scenarios suggested testing every 1 year (or 3 years), the three mixing-levels suggested testing every 0.8 to 1.2 years, 0.6 to 1.5 years, and 0.6 to 1.5 years, respectively (or 2.6 to 3.5 years, 2 to 4.8 years, and 2.2 to 4.1 years, respectively). Similar patterns were observed when assuming jurisdictional homogeneity, however, change in incidence in mixing compared to no-mixing scenarios were high even in aggregated incidence.ConclusionsAccounting jurisdictional mixing and heterogeneity could improve model-based analyses.

Stimulant use interventions may strengthen 'Getting to Zero' HIV elimination initiatives in Illinois: Insights from a modeling study.

Getting to Zero (GTZ) is an Illinois-based HIV elimination initiative. GTZ identifies younger Black men who have sex with men (YBMSM) as a population who have experienced disproportionate HIV incidence. Rising stimulant use among YBMSM has been determined to impede engagement in the HIV prevention and treatment continua for reducing onward HIV transmission. Given the limited development of dedicated or culturally appropriate interventions for this population, this modeling study explores the impact of stimulant use on HIV incidence among YBMSM and assesses the impact of interventions to treat stimulant use on downstream HIV transmission to achieve GTZ goals. A previously developed agent-based network model (ABNM), calibrated using data for YBMSM in Illinois, was extended to incorporate the impact of stimulant use (methamphetamines, crack/cocaine, and ecstasy) on sexual networks and engagement in HIV treatment and prevention continua. The model simulated the impact of a residential behavioral intervention (BI) for reducing stimulant use and an outpatient biomedical intervention (mirtazapine) for treating methamphetamine use. The downstream impact of these interventions on population-level HIV incidence was the primary intervention outcome. Baseline simulated annual HIV incidence in the ABNM was 6.93 [95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 6.83,7.04] per 100 person years (py) and 453 [95% UI: 445.9,461.2] new infections annually. A residential rehabilitation intervention targeted to 25% of stimulant using persons yielded a 27.1% reduction in the annual number of new infections. Initiating about 50% of methamphetamine using persons on mirtazapine reduced the overall HIV incidence among YBMSM by about 11.2%. A 30% increase in antiretroviral treatment (ART) and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake in the non-stimulant using YBMSM population combined with a 25% uptake of BI for stimulant using persons produces an HIV incidence consistent with HIV elimination targets (about 200 infections/year) identified in the GTZ initiative. Behavioral and biomedical interventions to treat stimulant use, in addition to expanding overall ART and PrEP uptake, are likely to enhance progress towards achieving GTZ goals.

Optimizing HIV Prevention Efforts to Achieve EHE Incidence Targets.

A goal of the US Department of Health and Human Services' Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) in the United States initiative is to reduce the annual number of incident HIV infections in the United States by 75% within 5 years and by 90% within 10 years. We developed a resource allocation analysis to understand how these goals might be met. We estimated the current annual societal funding [$2.8 billion (B)/yr] for 14 interventions to prevent HIV and facilitate treatment of infected persons. These interventions included HIV testing for different transmission groups, HIV care continuum interventions, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and syringe services programs. We developed scenarios optimizing or reallocating this funding to minimize new infections, and we analyzed the impact of additional EHE funding over the period 2021-2030. With constant current annual societal funding of $2.8 B/yr for 10 years starting in 2021, we estimated the annual incidence of 36,000 new cases in 2030. When we added annual EHE funding of $500 million (M)/yr for 2021-2022, $1.5 B/yr for 2023-2025, and $2.5 B/yr for 2026-2030, the annual incidence of infections decreased to 7600 cases (no optimization), 2900 cases (optimization beginning in 2026), and 2200 cases (optimization beginning in 2023) in 2030. Even without optimization, significant increases in resources could lead to an 80% decrease in the annual HIV incidence in 10 years. However, to reach both EHE targets, optimization of prevention funding early in the EHE period is necessary. Implementing these efficient allocations would require flexibility of funding across agencies, which might be difficult to achieve.

Factors associated with willingness to use oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in a fisher-folk community in peri-urban Kampala, Uganda

BackgroundThe World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in key populations at elevated risk for exposure to HIV. If used effectively, PrEP can reduce annual HIV incidence to below 0.05%. However, PrEP is not acceptable among all communities that might benefit from it. There is, therefore, a need to understand perceptions of PrEP and factors associated with willingness to use PrEP among key populations at risk of HIV, such as members of communities with exceptionally high HIV prevalence.ObjectiveTo examine the perceptions and factors associated with willingness to use oral PrEP among members of fishing communities in Uganda, a key population at risk of HIV.MethodsWe conducted an explanatory sequential mixed-methods study at Ggaba fishing community from February to June 2019. Survey data were collected from a systematic random sample of 283 community members in which PrEP had not been rolled out yet by the time of we conducted the study. We carried out bivariate tests of association of willingness to use PrEP with demographic characteristics, HIV risk perception, HIV testing history. We estimated prevalence ratios for willingness to use PrEP. We used backward elimination to build a multivariable modified Poisson regression model to describe factors associated with willingness to use PrEP. We purposively selected 16 participants for focus group discussions to contextualize survey findings, analysing data inductively and identifying emergent themes related to perceptions of PrEP. Key resultsWe enrolled 283 participants with a mean age of 31 ± 8 years. Most (80.9%) were male. The majority of participants had tested for HIV in their lifetime, but 64% had not tested in the past 6 months. Self-reported HIV prevalence was 6.4%. Most (80.6, 95%CI 75.5–85.0) were willing in principle to use PrEP. Willingness to use PrEP was associated with perceiving oneself to be at high risk of HIV (aPR 1.99, 95%CI 1.31–3.02, P = 0.001), having tested for HIV in the past 6-months (aPR 1.13, 95%CI 1.03–1.24, P = 0.007), and completion of tertiary education (aPR 1.97, 95%CI 1.39–2.81, P < 0.001). In focus group discussions, participants described pill burden, side-effects and drug safety as potential barriers to PrEP use.Conclusions and recommendationsOral PrEP was widely acceptable among members of fishing communities in peri-urban Kampala. Programs for scaling-up PrEP for fisherfolk should merge HIV testing services with sensitization about PrEP and also increase means of awareness of PrEP as an HIV preventive strategy .

Estimated Annual Number of HIV Infections ─ United States, 1981-2019.

The first cases of Pneumocystis carinii (jirovecii) pneumonia among young men, which were subsequently linked to HIV infection, were reported in the MMWR on June 5, 1981 (1). At year-end 2019, an estimated 1.2 million persons in the United States were living with HIV infection (2). Using data reported to the National HIV Surveillance System, CDC estimated the annual number of new HIV infections (incidence) among persons aged ≥13 years in the United States during 1981-2019. Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 20,000 infections in 1981 to a peak of 130,400 infections in 1984 and 1985. Incidence was relatively stable during 1991-2007, with approximately 50,000-58,000 infections annually, and then decreased in recent years to 34,800 infections in 2019. The majority of infections continue to be attributable to male-to-male sexual contact (63% in 1981 and 66% in 2019). Over time, the proportion of HIV infections has increased among Black/African American (Black) persons (from 29% in 1981 to 41% in 2019) and among Hispanic/Latino persons (from 16% in 1981 to 29% in 2019). Despite the lack of a cure or a vaccine, today's HIV prevention tools, including HIV testing, prompt and sustained treatment, preexposure prophylaxis, and comprehensive syringe service programs, provide an opportunity to substantially decrease new HIV infections. Intensifying efforts to implement these strategies equitably could accelerate declines in HIV transmission, morbidity, and mortality and reduce disparities.

Evidence of an untamed HIV epidemic among MSM and TGW in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a 2018 to 2020 cross-sectional study using recent infection testing.

IntroductionMonitoring the HIV epidemic and identifying populations among whom HIV is spreading is critical. We aimed to provide an estimate of the annualized HIV incidence rate using recency testing among cisgender men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) at a reference centre in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.MethodsWe evaluated MSM and TGW who sought HIV testing at the Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases‐FIOCRUZ between March 2018 and January 2020. The Limiting Avidity assay (LAg) as part of a recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) was employed to identify recent infections (those with a normalized optical density ≤1.5 in the LAg that met all RITA criteria) among those who tested positive for HIV and the annualized HIV incidence was estimated.Results and discussionOut of 3053 individuals assessed, 2591 (84.9%) were HIV negative and 462 (15.1%) were living with HIV. Among these, 302 (65.4%) with stored samples available were evaluated and 73/302 (24.2%) were classified as recent infections. The annualized incidence rate estimate using a false recency rate of zero was 7.35% (95% CI 5.76% to 9.25%).ConclusionsOur results suggest that the HIV epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, continues to disproportionately burden vulnerable populations, including MSM and TGW despite the existence and availability of effective preventive and therapeutic interventions.

Uptake of Primary Care Services and HIV and Syphilis Infection among Transgender Women attending the Tangerine Community Health Clinic, Bangkok, Thailand, 2016 - 2019.

IntroductionTransgender women (TGW) need a specific package of primary care services usually not available in the publicly funded healthcare system. In addition, little is known about HIV and syphilis prevalence and incidence in clinic‐based samples of TGW. Here we evaluate the uptake of a transgender‐specific package of primary care services by TGW in Bangkok, Thailand and assess HIV and syphilis prevalence and incidence among them.MethodsOpen cohort study of TGW attending services at the Tangerine Community Health Clinic from 2016 to 2019. Cross‐sectional and longitudinal analysis of routinely collected clinic data was performed to study trends in the number of clients, clinic visits and HIV and syphilis prevalence and incidence.ResultsDuring the study period, 2947 TGW clients made a total of 5227 visits to Tangerine. The number of clients significantly increased from 446 in 2016 to 1050 in 2019 (p < 0.001) and the number of visits from 616 to 2198 during the same period (p < 0.001). Prevalence of HIV at first visit was 10.8% and of syphilis 9.8%. HIV incidence was 1.03 per 100 person years (PY) and of syphilis 2.06 per 100 PY of follow‐up. From 2016 to 2019, significant decreases occurred in the annual prevalence of HIV from 14.6% to 9.9% (p < 0.01). The annual prevalence of syphilis significantly increased from 6.6% in 2016 to 14.6% in 2018, and then decreased to 7.3% in 2019 (p < 0.001). The annual HIV incidence decreased during 2016 to 2019, from 1.68 to 1.28 per 100 PY, but this reduction was not statistically significant. The annual incidence of treponemal test seroconversion significantly increased from zero in 2016 to 4.55 per 100 PY in 2019 (p < 0.001).ConclusionsThe increasing uptake of a transgender‐specific package of services, including co‐located gender affirmative hormone therapy, suggests this may be an effective model in engaging and retaining TGW in primary care. The decrease in HIV prevalence and low HIV incidence across calendar years point at a possible reduction of HIV acquisition among the TGW population served by Tangerine. The increasing prevalence of syphilis suggests ongoing high‐risk sexual behaviour and underscores the need for screening and treatment for this infection at the time of delivery of HIV services.

Recent HIV infection among pregnant women in the 2017 antenatal sentinel cross-sectional survey, South Africa: Assay-based incidence measurement.

IntroductionNew HIV infection during pre-conception and pregnancy is a significant contributor of mother–to–child transmission of HIV in South Africa. This study estimated HIV incidence (defined as new infection within the last one year from the time of the survey which included both new infections occurred during pregnancy or just before pregnancy) among pregnant women and described the characteristics of recently infected pregnant women at national level.MethodsBetween 1 October and 15 November 2017, we conducted a national cross–sectional survey among pregnant women aged 15–49 years old attending antenatal care at 1,595 public facilities. Blood specimens were collected from pregnant women and tested for HIV in a centralised laboratory. Plasma viral load and Limiting Antigen Avidity Enzyme Immunosorbent Assay (LAg) tests were further performed on HIV positive specimens to differentiate between recent and long–term infections. Recent infection was defined as infection that occurred within one year from the date of collection of blood specimen for the survey. Data on age, age of partner, and marital status were collected through interviews. Women whose specimens were classified as recent by LAg assay and with viral loads >1,000 copies/mL were considered as recently infected. The calculated proportion of HIV positive women with recent infection was adjusted for assay–specific parameters to estimate annual incidence. Survey multinomial logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with being recently infected using HIV negative women as a reference group. Age–disparate relationship was defined as having a partner 5 or more years older.ResultsOf 10,049 HIV positive participants with LAg and viral load data, 1.4% (136) were identified as recently infected. The annual HIV incidence was 1.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2–1.7). In multivariable analyses, being single (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 3.4, 95% CI: 1.8–6.2) or cohabiting (aOR: 3.8, 95% CI: 1.8–7.7), compared to being married as well as being in an age–disparate relationship among young women (aOR: 3.1, 95% CI: 2.0–4.7; reference group: young women (15–24years) whose partners were not 5 years or more older) were associated with higher odds of recent infection.ConclusionsCompared to previous studies among pregnant women, the incidence estimated in this study was substantially lower. However, the UNAIDS target to reduce incidence by 75% by 2020 (which is equivalent to reducing incidence to <1%) has not been met. The implementation of HIV prevention and treatment interventions should be intensified, targeting young women engaged in age–disparate relationship and unmarried women to fast track progress towards the UNAIDS target.

HIV incidence in a multinational cohort of men and transgender women who have sex with men in sub-Saharan Africa: Findings from HPTN 075.

Few studies have assessed HIV incidence in men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We assessed HIV incidence and its correlates among MSM and TGW in SSA enrolled in the prospective, multi-country HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 075 study, conducted from 2015 to 2017. Participants were enrolled at four sites in SSA (Kisumu, Kenya; Blantyre, Malawi; Cape Town and Soweto, South Africa). Eligible participants reported male sex assignment at birth, were 18 to 44 years of age, and had engaged in anal intercourse with a man in the preceding three months. Participation involved five study visits over 12 months. Visits included behavioral assessments and testing for HIV and sexually transmitted infections. Twenty-one of 329 persons acquired HIV during the study [incidence rate: 6.96/100 person-years (PY) (95% CI: 4.3, 10.6)]. Among TGW, HIV incidence was estimated to be 8.4/100 PY (95% CI: 2.3, 21.5). Four participants were found to have acute HIV infection at their first HIV-positive visit. HIV incidence varied among the four study sites, ranging from 1.3/100 PY to 14.4/100 PY. In multivariate longitudinal analysis, factors significantly associated with HIV acquisition were engagement in unprotected receptive anal intercourse [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 5.8, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.4, 14.4] and incident rectal gonorrhea and/or chlamydia (AHR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.1, 6.8). The higher HIV incidence in Cape Town compared to Blantyre could be explained by the higher prevalence of several risk factors for HIV infection among participants in Cape Town. Annual HIV incidence observed in this study is substantially higher than reported HIV incidence in the general populations in the respective countries and among MSM in the United States. Intensification of HIV prevention efforts for MSM and TGW in SSA is urgently needed.

A reinforcement learning model to inform optimal decision paths for HIV elimination.

The ‘Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE)’ national plan aims to reduce annual HIV incidence in the United States from 38,000 in 2015 to 9,300 by 2025 and 3,300 by 2030. Diagnosis and treatment are two most effective interventions, and thus, identifying corresponding optimal combinations of testing and retention-in-care rates would help inform implementation of relevant programs. Considering the dynamic and stochastic complexity of the disease and the time dynamics of decision-making, solving for optimal combinations using commonly used methods of parametric optimization or exhaustive evaluation of pre-selected options are infeasible. Reinforcement learning (RL), an artificial intelligence method, is ideal; however, training RL algorithms and ensuring convergence to optimality are computationally challenging for large-scale stochastic problems. We evaluate its feasibility in the context of the EHE goal. We trained an RL algorithm to identify a ‘sequence’ of combinations of HIV-testing and retention-in-care rates at 5-year intervals over 2015–2070 that optimally leads towards HIV elimination. We defined optimality as a sequence that maximizes quality-adjusted-life-years lived and minimizes HIV-testing and care-and-treatment costs. We show that solving for testing and retention-in-care rates through appropriate reformulation using proxy decision-metrics overcomes the computational challenges of RL. We used a stochastic agent-based simulation to train the RL algorithm. As there is variability in support-programs needed to address barriers to care-access, we evaluated the sensitivity of optimal decisions to three cost-functions. The model suggests to scale-up retention-in-care programs to achieve and maintain high annual retention-rates while initiating with a high testing-frequency but relaxing it over a 10-year period as incidence decreases. Results were mainly robust to the uncertainty in costs. However, testing and retention-in-care alone did not achieve the 2030 EHE targets, suggesting the need for additional interventions. The results from the model demonstrated convergence. RL is suitable for evaluating phased public health decisions for infectious disease control.

The HIV care cascade in Manitoba, Canada: Methods, measures, and estimates to meet local needs

Background and ObjectiveWe describe the development of the first HIV care cascade for Manitoba, Canada, detailing steps taken to establish indicator definitions for each cascade step, and derive a full complement of local estimates. MethodsManitoba is a Canadian Prairie Province with disproportionately high annual HIV incidence. In 2013, a clinical cohort of people living with HIV was established within the primary HIV care program in Manitoba. Using cohort data from 2017, we describe the creation of a set of indicator definitions and calculate estimates for each cascade step to create the first Manitoban cascade model. ResultsOf the 703 cohort participants categorized as alive and diagnosed, 638 (90.8%) were in care, 606 (86.2%) retained in care, 573 (81.5%) on treatment, and 523 (74.4%) virologically suppressed. The greatest point of leakage occurred between the first and second steps; 9.3% of those alive and diagnosed in 2017 were not in care in the same calendar year. ConclusionThis is the first comprehensive examination of HIV clinical epidemiology in Manitoba using a cascade framework, with the potential inform programming to improve service coverage within Manitoba and significantly contribute to evidence informing provincial policies to support these efforts.

Model-Based Predictions of HIV Incidence Among African Women Using HIV Risk Behaviors and Community-Level Data on Male HIV Prevalence and Viral Suppression.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine has proven highly effective in preventing HIV acquisition and is therefore offered to all participants in the control group as part of the standard of care package in many new HIV prevention studies. We propose a methodology for predicting HIV incidence in a hypothetical "placebo arm" for open-label studies or clinical trials with active control among African women. We apply the method to an open-label PrEP study, HIV Prevention Trials Network 082, which tested strategies to improve PrEP adherence in young African women all of whom were offered PrEP. Our model predicted HIV infection risk for female study cohorts in sub-Saharan Africa using baseline behavioral risk factors and contemporary HIV prevalence and viral suppression in the local male population. The model was calibrated to HIV incidence in the Vaginal and Oral Interventions to Control the Epidemic study. Our model reproduced the annual HIV incidence of 3.2%-4.8% observed over 1 year of follow-up in the placebo groups of 4 completed clinical studies. We predicted an annual HIV incidence of 3.7% (95% confidence interval: 3.2 to 4.2) among HIV Prevention Trials Network 082 participants in the absence of PrEP and other risk reduction interventions. We demonstrated the potential of the proposed methodology to provide HIV incidence predictions based on assessment of individual risk behaviors and community and time-specific HIV exposure risk using HIV treatment and viral suppression data. These estimates may serve as comparators in HIV prevention trials without a placebo group.

HIV prevalence and incidence in a cohort of South African men and transgender women who have sex with men: the Sibanye Methods for Prevention Packages Programme (MP3) project.

IntroductionMen who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) are at increased risk for acquiring HIV, but there are limited HIV incidence data for these key populations in Africa. Understanding HIV prevalence and incidence provides important context for designing HIV prevention strategies, including pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programmes. We describe HIV prevalence, awareness of HIV infection, HIV incidence and associated factors for a cohort of MSM and TGW in Cape Town and Port Elizabeth, South Africa.MethodsFrom 2015 to 2016, MSM and TGW in Cape Town and Port Elizabeth were enrolled and prospectively followed for 12 months, receiving a comprehensive package of HIV prevention services. HIV testing was conducted at baseline and at follow‐up visits (targeted for three, six and twelve months). All HIV‐negative PrEP‐eligible participants were offered PrEP enrolment during the first four months of study participation. We determined HIV prevalence among participants at baseline, and incidence by repeat screening of initially HIV‐negative participants with HIV tests at three, six and twelve months.ResultsAmong 292 participants enrolled, HIV prevalence was high (43%; 95% CI: 38 to 49) and awareness of HIV status was low (50%). The 167 HIV‐negative participants who were followed prospectively for 144.7 person‐years; nine incident HIV infections were documented. Overall annual incidence was 6.2% (CI: 2.8 to 11.8) and did not differ by city. Annual HIV incidence was significantly higher for younger (18 to 19 years) MSM and TGW (MSM: 21.8% (CI: 1.2 to 100); TGW: 31.0 (CI: 3.7, 111.2)). About half of participants started PrEP during the study; the annual incidence of HIV among 82 (49%) PrEP starters was 3.6% (CI: 0.4, 13.1) and among those who did not start PrEP was 7.8% (CI: 3.1, 16.1).ConclusionsHIV incidence was high among MSM and TGW in the context of receiving a comprehensive package of prevention interventions and offering of PrEP. PrEP uptake was high; the observed incidence of HIV in those who started PrEP was about half the incidence of HIV in those who did not. Future implementation‐oriented studies should focus on decisions to start and continue PrEP for those at highest risk, including young MSM.