Annual GDP Growth Rate Research Articles

Analysis of the Impact of Exchange Rate, Inflation, Export and Import on Gross Domestic Product in Bangladesh

This study is about the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on economic growth of Bangladesh. Economic growth of Bangladesh is measured in terms of annual nominal GDP growth rate. Least squared regression model has been employed considering exchange rate, export, import and inflation rate as independent variables and gross domestic product as the dependent variable in this study. The results reveal that export and import have significant positive impact on GDP growth rate. The other variables (exchange rate and inflation) are not significant, indicating that there exists no significant relationship among the variables. The findings will help the policy makers to make policies concerning the country’s economic growth to remain robust in the near future.

Wyzwania rozwojowe w najszybciej rozwijających się krajach azjatyckich

Development challenges in the fastest growing Asian countriesOver the period from 2001 to 2017, 14 countries in Asia recoded an average annual GDP growth rate of more than 6%. The fastest growing Asian countries experienced rapid economic growth as a result of implementing various development strategies. Besides, to a different extent, they used their economic success to improve the standard of living of their citizens. After 17 years of fast economic growth they still face many development challenges. Among them, the most important are: elimination of extreme poverty among employees, reduction of income inequality in society, improving the standard of living and quality of life of citizens especially in rural areas, ensuring a better access to high quality maternal and child health services, and increasing access to social services for the whole society.

Does competition explain growth in OECD and BRICS countries?

PurposeThis paper aims to explain the empirical relationship between competitiveness and economic growth in a globalizing world. In recent times, the advanced economies have experienced a slowdown of growth, whereas the BRICS countries continue to experience high growth. The authors explore the following question: Does competitiveness of nations’ degree of competition explains this differential in growth? The authors explore competiveness and growth in a macroeconomic perspective for the large economies in the OECD and BRICS countries.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use dynamic panel data modelling technique to find the relationship between competitiveness and economic growth. This technique enables to control heterogeneity problem of this group to some extent. The focus variable of this study is annual GDP growth rate for the period 2007-2017. The proxies for measuring competitiveness in this paper are trade as percentage of GDP, product market regulation, unit labour cost and global competitive index. Innovation prevalence of foreign ownership, efficiency, competition, state of cluster development, venture capital availability, extent of market, research and development expenditure as percentage of the GDP mergers and acquisitions and multifactor productivity are the control variables.FindingsThe authors find that the degree of competitiveness competition is less likely to impact economic growth in the OECD countries because they have more or less similar competitive environment. Innovation, extent of market and state of cluster development and venture capital availability explaining growth differential. Increased competition is likely to affect growth negatively. This explains the oligopolistic structures of the world economy. However, the BRICS countries vary significantly in competitive environment. This is the reason of volatility in their growth. The conclusion is that competitiveness is important for sustained growth. Competitiveness is, however, an outcome of a set of policies, not a policy itself.Research limitations/implicationsProductivity data for OECD and BRICS countries are not available. Various series are not comparable. OECD countries have discontinued yearly unit labour cost series, and high frequency series are available but no such series for BRICS exists.Practical implicationsFirst, this paper proposes that wage growth, measured by the unit labour cost growth rate, is an important determinant of competitiveness amongst the nations. Wage growth is falling short of productivity growth in the OECD countries. This has implications for the long run sustainability of growth, skill development and inequalities in the region. Since 2011, world economic recovery is slow. Wage growth is imperative for generating sufficient private demand in the OECD countries. Second, this paper provides evidence that competitiveness is important for explaining growth in the OECD and the BRICS countries. However, it also highlights that competitiveness can be measured effectively by the trade differential or with the help of unit labour cost. Unaligned real effective exchange rate in terms of unit labour costs is the real cause of the problem.Originality/valueResearch in this area is still in infancy. This research finds that how competitiveness affects growth. A more competitive nation can sell more, but not necessarily grow rapidly. In development process, growth comes first, and at the latter stages, countries have to introduce effective reforms for competitiveness. This is the effect of competitiveness on growth by comparing various indexes.

Understanding the role of China's domestic market in the (unequal) growth of world economy

AbstractThis study investigates the rising role of China's domestic market expansion from 1995 to 2011 in the world economy's growth. China maintained high domestic expenditure growth during the entire period, with even bigger increases in the last years, when the global financial crisis and subsequent economic recovery occurred. The expenditures facilitated rapid growth through high demand for durable goods, which are produced across widely fragmented Asian channels. At the same time, China integrated further into the global economy and imported intermediate goods increasingly became embedded in goods for domestic sale. These two forces combined to magnify the impact of China's market expansion on foreign economies but disproportionately more on its neighbouring countries and sectors related to durable goods production. Specifically, our estimates suggest that the expenditure growth in China over the 2009–11 period added about 1 percentage point to the annual GDP growth rate in Taiwan, Malaysia and Korea, while the NAFTA and EU member countries typically benefited by less than 0.1 percentage point.

Why is it Imperative for Tanzania to Industrialize?

Tanzania’s average annual growth rate of GDP of 6.4% between 2005 and 2017 has had limited impact on jobs and poverty reduction. The current government’s mantra, ‘Tanzania ya Viwanda’, is meant to tackle these two problems. The objectives of thepaper are fourfold: first, to gain clear understanding of the Tanzanian context and why it is imperative to industrialize; second, to examine to what extent Tanzania has structurally transformed, and how that has been responsible for poverty and growthwithout jobs; third, to examine how industrial development could enhance agricultural production; and fourth, to assess the opportunities and challenges that exist in Tanzania’s industrialization drive and draw some policy implications. The paper uses labour market, macro and trade data from secondary sources, and employs the exploratory analytical approach. It concludes that the imperative to industrialize in Tanzania cannot be overemphasized due to the following gains: structural transformation, job creation, higher agricultural productivity, and poverty reduction. The industrialization drive must focus on Tanzania’s comparative advantage and ensure that some of the challenges identified—i.e., poor infrastructure, weak business environment and regional integration hurdles—are well known, addressed, and given the priority they deserve.
 JEL Codes: I30, J60, O55

Effect of Rainfall Variations on Economic Growth in Africa

It is an undeniable fact that African continent is ascribed as an agrarian continent. Majority of the revenue generation and employment options for many of the African countries come from the Agricultural sector. Africa is considered as one of the fastest growing economies in recent times yet, it is vulnerable to climatic risks. These risks have been shown to affect the economic growth of African countries. Using the linear regression model, this study examined the relationship between climate change in form of rainfall variations and economic growth of African countries in past years. The study analyzed secondary datasets of annual rainfall and GDP growth rate of 43 African countries for a period of 25 years between 1991 and 2015. Trends in rainfall variability has impacted on agriculture and hydroelectric power of many African nations, two channels that contribute greatly to the wealth of nations. It is expected that the continent would harness its resources and invest in climate related needs to mitigate against adverse effects caused by rain variation. Keywords: Rainfall, GDP, Economic Growth, Agriculture, Hydroelectricity, and Climate. DOI: 10.7176/JESD/10-8-09 Publication date: April 30 th 2019

A nowcasting model for Ecuador: Implementing a time-varying mean output growth

We propose a model to nowcast the annual growth rate of real GDP for Ecuador, whose economy lacks timely macroeconomic information for some key variables and has gone through unstable periods due to its dependence on oil exports. Our specification combines monthly information for 30 macroeconomic and financial variables with quarterly information for real GDP in a mixed-frequency approach. Our setup includes a time-varying coefficient on the mean annual growth rate of output to allow the model to incorporate prolonged periods of low or high growth. The model produces more accurate nowcasts of real output growth in pseudo out-of-sample exercises than a nowcasting model that assumes a constant mean real GDP growth rate. We also conduct sensitivity analyses on our nowcasting model within the time-varying mean setup and find that including financial variables can be detrimental to the performance of the proposed model.

China’s Contribution to the African Power Sector: Policy Implications for African Countries

China has over the past thirty years experienced unprecedented economic growth averaging over 10% per year (“China GDP Annual Growth Rate ∣ 1989-2018 ∣ Data ∣ Chart ∣ Calendar” n.d.). For this reason, the relationship between China and Africa is often characterized as a case of China colonizing Africa to own natural resources and their associated infrastructure to feed its industrialization. Despite this postulation, Africa sees the cooperation as based on mutual interests in areas such as energy. The two regions could leverage their cooperation with the help of the international community to significantly advance access to electricity in Africa by improving energy efficiency, deploying cookstove programs to reduce health hazards and deaths from smoke inhalation, diversifying energy portfolio, and creating power pools that countries experiencing hiccups in their systems could tap into to meet their electricity needs. The two regions could also formulate energy policies to support these programs. Additionally, the energy infrastructure in Africa is still in infancy presenting an excellent opportunity to utilize emerging technologies and new power systems that are more efficient, resilient, and clean.

Infrastructure mortgage in Russia: Opportunities and prospects

The article shows that depending on the goals pursued by the federal government and the available interbudgetary tools a different design of infrastructure mortgage is preferable. Three variants of such mortgage in Russia are proposed, each of which is better suited for certain types of projects and uses different forms of subsidies. According to our expert assessment the active use of infrastructure mortgage in Russia can increase the average annual GDP growth rate by 0.5 p. p. on the horizon of 5—7 years. In the long run the growth of infrastructure financing through the use of infrastructure mortgage could increase long-term economic growth by 0.9 p. p., which in 20—30 years can add 20—30% of GDP to the economy. However, the change in the structure of budget expenditures in the absence of an increase in the budget deficit and public debt will cause no direct impact on monetary policy. The increase in the deficit and the build-up of public debt will have a negative effect on inflation expectations, which will require monetary tightening for a longer time to stabilize them.

DETERMINANTS OF FINANCIAL INCLUSION IN EAST AFRICA

There is a growing focus on financial inclusion among scholars and in policy circles. This study sought to analyse the underlying determinants of financial inclusion among five East African countries- Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi. The general objective of the study was to determine the determinants of financial inclusion in East Africa. Specifically, the study examined the effect of rural population, unemployment rates, income level and interest rates on financial inclusion. Rural population was presented as the proportion of a country?s population that lives in rural areas; unemployment rate as the proportion of a country?s population that is unemployed; income as the annual growth rate in GDP per capita; and interest rate as the real interest rate per year. The study used domestic credit to private sector by banks as a measure of financial inclusion The research design used was panel data analysis with secondary data collected from the World Development Indicators database of the World Bank. The 17 year period covered by the study spanned 2000 to 2016. The data was analysed on Stata and the output from analysis provided a basis for findings and recommendations. After conducting diagnostic tests, the model adopted for the study was the fixed effects model. The study found that rural population and income are significant determinants of financial inclusion with rural population being negatively related with financial inclusion. This means that the higher the rural population of a country, the less inclusive their financial system is. Unemployment though statistically insignificant had a negative relationship with financial inclusion. Interest rates had a positive but insignificant relationship with financial inclusion. The study recommended that focused financial literacy efforts be increased in the rural areas within East Africa to promote inclusion efforts. Interest rates can be a powerful policy tool to encourage both savings and credit facility sourcing from the banking sector.

Labor market asymmetries and mechanisms for regulating them in the context of achieving the sustainable development goals

Introduction. Labor market is a major component of any economy and is intricately tied in with markets for capital, goods and services. At a time of immense challenges to sustainable development, employment, unemployment, particularly youth unemployment, gender inequalities are major concerns and key challenges. Purpose. The article aims is to research the national peculiarities and tendencies of the labor market and determine the directions of the state policy of Ukraine for regulating the asymmetries of its development on the basis of foreign countries experience. Method (methodology): the methods of structural and logical analysis were used to implement theoretical generalizations and formulation of mechanisms for regulating them in the context of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals; the methods of detailing and synthesis were used to study the employment, unemployment, wages, and labor migration. The statistical methods were used to study the labor market asymmetries and the trends of labor market. Results. The actual trends of development of labor market have been investigated. There are a number of problems that affect the efficiency of state policy and achieving the Global goals of sustainable development. These are problems such as employment opportunities, especially for young people; inequalities across regions, age groups and genders; informal employment; labor migration. Particular importance is attached to core indicators for reporting on contribution towards implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals as annual growth rate of real GDP per employed person; proportion of informal employment, by sex; average hourly earnings of female and male employees, by occupation, age and persons with disabilities; unemployment rate, by sex, age and persons with disabilities; proportion of youth (aged 15-24 years) not in education, employment or training. The mechanisms of regulation of asymmetries of development of labor market in Ukraine are proposed. For example, labor market reform and revision of labor law; investing in education; development of cognitive and social skills; job creation, cooperation of all parties of social-labor relations and others.

Business Cycle Synchronization and Optimum Currency Areas: The Case of the Economic Community of West African States

This study analyzed the degree of business cycles’ synchronization of ECOWAS economies in order to ascertain whether the formation of a broader monetary union in 2020 will be beneficial to the entire region. Annual real GDP growth rate from 1975 to 2015 was de-trended using the Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP) filter to obtain two components- permanent and transitory components. Lastly, cross country correlations of the different components were used to analyze the business cycles of ECOWAS economies. Result from the transitory component shows that the business cycles of WAEMU sub-economies are similar. But on a general note, the correlation coefficients of both components show that the business cycles of ECOWAS economies differ significantly, suggesting that, a broader monetary union involving both WAEMU and WAMZ economies will not be beneficial to the entire ECOWAS region. However, ECOWAS governments can take the risk of forming a monetary union in 2020 since a high probability of addressing a wide range of macroeconomic differentials across the region is incumbent on ex-post conditions, rather than on ex-ante prerequisite conditions that only focuses on the cost of relinquishing monetary autonomy.

Empirical Analysis of China's Atmospheric Control and Environmental Pollution

Since the reform and opening up of the Chinese economy, the average annual growth rate of GDP has exceeded 9%, and the total number of economies has now jumped to the second place in the world. The rapid development of China's industrialization and modernization, its economic achievements are obvious to all. However, in recent years, environmental pollution has become more and more serious, which has seriously affected the daily activities of local residents. However, after maintaining rapid growth for many years, the Chinese economy has gradually slowed down its growth rate, and the Chinese economy has fully entered the new normal of economic growth. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the central and local governments have attached great importance to environmental issues and have actively carried out environmental governance and achieved certain results, but they have not fundamentally reversed the problem of environmental degradation. Environmental management has been strengthened in all regions, but the effects of environmental governance are not optimistic, and industrial pollution continues to increase. This paper constructs a mediation effect model of public finance, governance equipment and pollutants, and it uses the latest monthly data of 2013-2018 to draw empirical conclusions that are consistent with China's national conditions. The Chinese government's public finance expenditure has played an obvious role in promoting the upgrading of China's industrial pollutant plastics production. China's environmental regulation and air pressure equipment investment has played a significant part of the intermediary effect in this process.

Impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in the world during 1975–2015

The study is concentrated on examination the impact of FDI on economic growth in the World during 1975–2015. The study consists of four consecutive parts, including introduction, literature review, model and methodology, data, empirical results and conclusion. Each part of the study is focused on its own goals. According to the results of the literature review, there is positive influence of FDI on economic growth in various countries. Economic growth is one of the most important goals of any country. The country image on the international level is dependent on its economic power. Economic growth provides an opportunity to improve the living standards in the country. Most researchers conclude that there is a positive influence of FDI on the countries’ economic growth. However, the impact of FDI is strong in developing countries. Moreover, this relationship is stronger in countries with higher educational and technological level, trade openness and development of the countries’ stock markets. Economists often build regression models to estimate the relationship between the variables. In order to find the impact of FDI on economic growth, we are going to apply linear regression models. We take two variables as indicators of the countries’ economic growth, including current GDP expressed in U.S dollars, and annual GDP growth rate. Taking into account that the World’s GDP in current U.S dollar is a factor variable with the mentioned resulting variables, the regression equation looks as follows:
 The R-squared of the built model is 0.99, indicating that roughly 100% of changes in the World’s GDP is caused by the chosen factors. As it is seen from the SAS output, the residuals of dependent variable and factors variables are distributed normally among its average value. Thus, non-normality is not observed in the model. Taking into account the coefficients of the factor variables, the log GDP is most sensitive to the changes in trade as a percent of GDP. The log GDP is not quite sensitive to the changes in FDI, since the coefficient of 0.000128 means that increasing of FDI by one unit increase the logarithmic value of GDP by $ 0.000128.

Repositioning Democratic Governance in Nigeria: Implications on National Economy

The value system of Nigeria’s democratic process since 1999 may have been undermined by the absence of good governance in the country’s leadership stream. And despite the craze for unprecedented development in the country even as it dreams of becoming the 20th best economy in the world by the year 2020, Nigeria leadership attitude to accountability, transparency and outright respect for the rule of law may after all remain a major challenge to overcome in the 21st century. The study adopts empirical process by means of charts towards evaluating the quality of governance Nigeria may have witnessed in the post 1999 democratic regimes of Nigeria with emphasis on the annual GDP growth rate statistics, annual GDP achieved (in US$), unemployment rates as co-published by the International Monetary Fund, annual national Budget of Nigeria as published by the World Bank Group and the country’s corruption perception index as rated by Transparency International (TI) for the years 1999 – 2016. These were all employed by the study for graphical evaluation and assessment purpose using charts. Indicative pointers from the charts shows that though the country’s annual budget has continued to rise since 1999, the country’s employment sector has not really benefited from this acclaimed shoot up given the recent upward movement of the country’s unemployment rate and the consequent downward pace in the rate at which the economy of Nigeria is growing in recent times. Further pointers noted from the corruption perception index chart indicate that the quality of the governance obtainable in the country is a far cry from what good governance really entails. The study however proffered some sensitive policy framework and reliable approaches to these notable challenges currently engulfing the country.

AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF THE PRESENT AND FUTURE EFFECT OF INFLATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EGYPT

Inflation is meant the overall and continuing rise in prices by the impact of internal or external variables, produced by excess demand about supply capacity. Problem of the study: The Egyptian economy has a decline in overall economic indicators, most importantly is the overall growth rate, compared with a rise in inflation, poverty, unemployment, the low production and the continuing deficit in the trade balance, and in general budget, which are negative indicators for the Egyptian economy. Therefore, the study is trying to explain and study the problem of inflation, its direct and indirect effects on overall growth rates in the Egyptian economy. Research Objectives: Identify the reality of growth rate in the Egyptian economy; identify what are inflation types and methods of measurement, measuring interaction relationships between both of inflation rates and growth rates in the Egyptian economy, determine factors afficting of both inflation and growth rates in Egypt, to work on indirect effect in these phenomena by afficting on those factors. Results and recommendations 1-To study the effect of the most important variables of affected GDP at current and real prices in Egypt during the period (2003-2014): It turns out that study variables give effects on growth rate in real GDP at real prices consistent with economic logic, on the contrary effects of the growth rate of GDP at current prices. 2- Study interrelationships between the local annual growth rate at real and current prices and the annual inflation rate in Egypt during the period (2003-2014): It was concluded that data will be relied on real growth rate of GDP in its relations with inflation, where it is more logical from the economic point of view than the results of the GDP growth rate of GDP at current prices. 3- The relation between the inflation rate and growth rate GDP in real terms is negatively slope. 4- The results of the current economic model show that: The most important factors affecting in inflation rate and real growth rate in GDP are: First: Annual inflation rate in consumer prices (X2), it has a negative significant statistically effect for both of annual growth rate of GDP at real prices% (X6), net cash reserve (X8), and the balance of current transactions and transfers (X13). And positive significant statistically effect for both of exchange rate of the dollar declared by the Central Bank (X10), and and the total surplus (deficit) (X21). Second: Annual growth rate of GDP at real prices% (X6), it has a negative effect from, annual inflation rate in consumer prices (X2), and the exchange rate of the dollar announced by the Central Bank (X10), while the effect was statistically significant positive for both of, net cash reserve (X8), and the total surplus (deficit) (X21). 5- Best method to forcast the main variables under study of inflation rate and the real growth rate of GDP is the use of the simutianeous equation model it takes into consideration all external variables affecting the internal variables under study. It was reached by forcasting both of the Inflation rates and real GDP growth rates, that the policies followed by floating exchange rate, which requires an impact on all variables to the hoped results of the floating of the Egyptian pound. Therefore research recommends: to re-enter the Central Bank for determining the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound against other currencies, not directly to the currency exchange rate, but by indirect intervention through supply and demand control of the currency in Egyptian market against other currencies, by intervening in the market by selling and buying direct from banks, in addition to moving external variables affecting both inflation and real growth rates in Egypt to able to reach the resalts of simulitanuos equation model which takes into account all external variables related to the study variables.

New Structural Economics: How It Comes into Being and Recent Progress — Celebrating the 30th Teaching Anniversary of Professor Justin Yifu Lin

In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, the Chinese economy has achieved miraculous economic development with an annual GDP growth rate close to 10% on average. This remarkable achievement is unprecedented in the entire human history. At a meeting with leading Chinese experts in the fields of Philosophy and Social Sciences on May 17, 2016, General Party Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that an era of tremendous social changes must be also an era of great development in Philosophy and Social Sciences. He expressed the hope that Philosophy and Social Sciences in China could flourish with important innovations in theory. The New Structural Economics（NSE hereafter）is such an attempt to develop an innovative and independent theory. Based on development experiences and lessons from China and other developing countries, NSE, guided by Marx’s historical materialism, adopts the modern research approach of Neoclassical Economics and highlights the crucial importance of economic structures”. NSE has gradually become the third wave of international trends in development economics. This paper aims to systematically review the history how NSE, as advocated by Justin Yifu Lin and his collaborators, has come into being, and also to provide an overview of the recent progress of NSE in both theory and practice. This paper is divided into six parts. The first part is the introduction. The second part is to divide the development of NSE into five stages: early germination, preliminary formation, systematic interpretation, deepening and expansion, and real-life application and implementation. The progress in each stage is carefully reviewed and assessed. In the third part, we discuss how NSE emerges as the third wave of development economics, how it differs from the previous two waves, and several academic debates on NSE. In the fourth part, we illustrate by specific examples how NSE provides different theoretical perspectives and analytical angles from the currently dominant theories. In the fifth part, we explain the core philosophy of NSE— Knowing and Achieving Be One, Achieving Verifies Knowing”, and show how this philosophy is hardwired in the new framework and new ideas in policy practice of NSE. The sixth part is a summary. Researchers of NSE should cherish a CHANGWU” mentality, adhering to the principle of openness and the concept of Knowing and Achieving Be One”. Researchers of NSE should never stop exploring new economic phenomena, new situations, and new problems and should keep improving, deepening and enriching both theory and practice of NSE.

An analysis of key factors of financial distress in airline companies in India using fuzzy AHP framework

The aviation industry in India is on a growth path with annual passenger traffic growing at over fifteen percent. The government has backed this growth through the extensive development of airport infrastructure across the country. However, airline companies in India, periodically face financial distress as the internal and external environmental factors change dynamically. Company management, acting as the agent for all the stakeholders, needs to ensure that the distress condition does not develop into a bankruptcy situation. It needs to identify all those factors, which have a major impact on the financial condition of the company and monitor them continuously using various tools and techniques. These identified key factors could be from both the internal conditions of the company and from the external environment that the industry operates. By identifying these influencing factors early, management can take preventive measures before the distress condition becomes critical. Informed decisions can be taken when the value of these key parameters change over time. To identify and rank these key factors in terms of relative importance, this paper adopts a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach based on the technique of fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Processing (AHP). Robustness of the method is further tested through sensitivity analysis. The study finds that financial factors are the most critical and categorized as a major influence on the commercial stability of the airlines. Among these, operating revenue per air kilometer is the key variable for this sector. Operational factors, which are an indicator of the capacity and cost structure of the company, are ranked next, with the load factor taking the highest rank in this category. From the external environment aviation, fuel price per liter is ranked highest among all the factors and has a major impact on the profitability of the airline in India. Results also show that annual inflation and GDP growth rate in the country has a major influence on the sustainability of the airlines in India.

A Nowcasting Model for the Growth Rate of Real GDP of Ecuador: Implementing a Time-Varying Intercept

This paper proposes a model to nowcast the annual growth rate of real GDP for Ecuador. The specification combines monthly information of 28 macroeconomic variables with quarterly information of real GDP in a mixed-frequency approach. Additionally, our setup includes a time-varying mean coefficient on the annual growth rate of real GDP to allow the model to incorporate prolonged periods of low growth, such as those experienced during secular stagnation episodes. The model produces reasonably good nowcasts of real GDP growth in pseudo out-of-sample exercises and is marginally more precise than a simple ARMA model.

Briefing Paper About 2018 Budget for Changes to Premium Bonds and Introduction of the Digital Services Tax (DST)

The UK government has taken steps to reduce the fiscal deficit and the austerity measures put in place since 2010 has paid off. However, the annual GDP growth rates of 1% to 1.5% is hardly something to cheer about. Under the new budget, premium bonds have undergone several changes to increase the scope of its applicability. Premium bonds have been introduced with provisions to be bought for children who are not your own children.