Annual Change Research Articles

Trends in incidence and survival of childhood cancers in Khon Kaen, Thailand (2000–2019): a population-based Khon Kaen Cancer Registry study

BackgroundIn Thailand, the national health care system and nationwide standard treatment protocols have evolved over time, potentially influencing the trends in the incidence and survival rates of childhood cancers. However, further investigations are required to comprehensively study these trends in Khon Kaen, Thailand.MethodsChildhood cancer patients aged 0–14 years (n = 541) who were diagnosed with one of the five most common cancers between 2000 and 2019 from the population-based Khon Kaen Cancer Registry were enrolled. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse the demographic data, which are presented as numbers, percentages, means, and standard deviations. The trends in incidence between 2000 and 2019, including age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) and annual percent changes (APCs), were analysed using the Joinpoint regression model. Survival analysis was performed for 5-year relative survival rates (RSRs) according to the Pohar Perme estimator and Kaplan–Meier survival curves.ResultsThe ASRs of the overall top 5 childhood cancer groups were 67.96 and 106.12 per million person-years in 2000 and 2019, respectively. Overall, the APC significantly increased by 2.37% each year for both sexes. The overall 5-year RSRs were 60.5% for both sexes, 58.2% for males, and 63.9% for females. The highest 5-year RSR was for germ cell tumours (84.3%), whereas the lowest 5-year RSR was for neuroblastoma (29.1%).ConclusionsThe incidence and survival rates of childhood cancers in Khon Kaen, Thailand, varied according to sex. The incidence trends increased over time, meanwhile, the relative survival rates rose to satisfactory levels and were comparable to those of other nations with similar financial status. The implementation of national health policies and adherence to national treatment guidelines have improved cancer diagnosis and treatment outcomes.

Analysis of the change in human resources of centers for disease control and prevention in different regions of China from 2010 to 2020

Objective: To analyze the change in human resources within China's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from 2010 to 2020. Methods: The self-reported information from provincial, prefectural (city), and county (district) levels of China's CDC, covering employee counts, staff composition, professional qualifications, educational backgrounds, technical titles, and tenure, were extracted from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The demographic context was provided by the annual population figures from the China Statistical Yearbook (2010-2020). The profile of CDC personnel was described, and the average annual percentage rate change (AAPC), average annual percentage rate change (APC), human resource agglomeration degree (HRAD) and the difference between HRAD and population agglomeration degree (PAD) were calculated. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the time trend. Results: The decade under review witnessed a net increase of 17 300 active and 18 300 enrolled personnel in the CDC, surpassing the national population growth rate with AAPCs of 0.93% and 1.03%, respectively. This upward trajectory was statistically significant (P<0.05). The ratio of disease control personnel per 10 000 population escalated from 1.14 to 1.21. An initial decline in active CDC workforce density (from 1.31 to 1.27 per 10 000 population between 2010 and 2017) was followed by an increase (from 1.28 to 1.37 between 2018 and 2020), with APCs of -0.40% and 3.73%, respectively. The proportion of professional and technical staff in 2019 was highest in the eastern region (86.01%), followed by the western (83.75%) and central regions (79.54%). The period also saw an enhancement in the average academic degree (from 1.91 to 2.43 points) and professional title scores (from 1.39 to 1.53 points) of CDC personnel. While the average tenure in the eastern and western regions showed a slight decline, the central region experienced an increase, with HRAD values indicating a higher concentration in the eastern and central regions compared to the western region. The HRAD-PAD discrepancy revealed a negative value in the eastern region, nearing zero in the central and western regions. Conclusion: Between 2010 and 2020, China's CDC experienced notable growth in human resources and underwent structural optimization, albeit with significant regional disparities in concentration.

Global, regional, and national burden of thalassemia, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021

Anemia is a significant contributor to the global disease burden, of which thalassemia is the most common hereditary anaemic disease. Previous estimates were based on data that were geographically limited and lacked comprehensive global analysis. This study provides the prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of thalassemia in 204 countries and regions of thalassemia between 1990 and 2021, focusing on the age structure and time trends of the disease burden. To provide effective information for health policy, allocation of medical resources and optimization of patient management programs. Using the standardised Global Burden of Disease (GBD) methodologies, we aimed to derive a more precise representation of the health burden posed by thalassemia by considering four distinct types of epidemiological data, namely the incidence at birth, prevalence, mortality and DALYs. The presented data were meticulously estimated and displayed both as numerical counts and as age-standardised rates per 100,000 persons of the population, accompanied by uncertainty interval (UI) to highlight potential statistical variability. The temporal trends spanning the years 1990-2021 were subjected to a rigorous examination utilizing Joinpoint regression analysis. This methodological approach facilitated the computation of the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC), along with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rates for thalassemia in 2021 were 18.28 per 100,000 persons (95% UI 15.29-22.02), 1.93 per 100,000 persons (95% UI 1.51-2.49), 0.15 per 100,000 persons(95% UI 0.11-0.20), and 11.65 per 100,000 persons (95% UI 8.24-14.94), respectively. Compared to 1990, these rates have decreased by 0.18 (95% UI-0.22 to-0.14), 0.25 (95% UI-0.30 to-0.19), 0.48 (95% UI-0.60 to-0.28), and 0.49 (95% UI-0.62 to-0.29) respectively. In 2021, the ASIR of thalassemia was highest in East Asia at 7.35 per 100,000 persons (95% UI 5.37-10.04), and ASMR was highest in Southeast Asia at 0.37 per 100,000 persons (95% UI 0.29-0.45).Gender comparisons showed negligible differences in disease burden, with the highest prevalence noted in children under five, decreasing with age. The global ASPR and ASMR declined from 1990 to 2021 overall, though an increasing trend in prevalence was found among the elderly. Joinpoint analysis revealed that the global ASPR increased between 2018 and 2021 (APC=9.2%, 95% CI: 4.8%-13.8%, P<0.001), ASIR decreased (APC=-7.68%, 95% CI:-10.88% to-4.36%, P<0.001), and there was a significant rise in ASMR from 2019 to 2021 (APC=4.8%, 95% CI: 0.1%-9.6%, P<0.05). Trends in ASPR and ASMR varied across regions, with notable changes in South Asia. The global burden of thalassemia, reflected in its prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs, exhibits significant disparities. Geographic and demographic shifts in disease distribution have been observed from 1990 to 2021, with an overall decrease in burden, yet an increase in cases among the elderly population. Analysis of epidemiological trends over time highlights the influence of health policies and significant public health interventions on thalassemia outcomes. There data are crucial for healthcare professionals, policymakers, and researchers to refine and enhance management strategies, aiming to further mitigate thalassemia's global impact. National Natural Science Foundation of China; Guizhou Province Science and Technology Project; Guizhou Province Science and Technology Foundation of Health Commission.

Sepsis mortality among patients with haematological malignancy admitted to intensive care 2000–2022: a binational cohort study

BackgroundSepsis occurs in 12–27% of patients with haematological malignancy within a year of diagnosis. Sepsis mortality has improved in non-cancer patients in the last two decades, but longitudinal trends in patients with haematological malignancy are not well characterised. We aimed to compare outcomes, including temporal changes, in patients with and without a haematological malignancy admitted to ICU with a primary diagnosis of sepsis in Australia and New Zealand over the past two decades.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study of 282,627 patients with a primary intensive care unit (ICU) admission diagnosis of sepsis including 17,313 patients with haematological malignancy, admitted to 216 intensive care units (ICUs) in Australia or New Zealand between January 2000 and December 2022. Annual crude and adjusted in-hospital mortality were reported. Risk factors for in-hospital mortality were determined using a mixed methods logistic regression model and were used to calculate annual changes in mortality.ResultsIn-hospital sepsis mortality decreased in patients with haematological malignancy, from 55.6% (95% CI 46.5–64.6%) in 2000 to 23.1% (95% CI 20.8–25.5%) in 2021. In patients without haematological malignancy mortality decreased from 33.1% (95% CI 31.3–35.1%) to 14.4% (95% CI 13.8–14.8%). This decrease remained significant after adjusting for mortality predictors including age, SOFA score and comorbidities, as estimated by adjusted annual odds of in-hospital death. The reduction in odds of death was of greater magnitude in patients with haematological malignancy than those without (OR 0.954, 95% CI 0.947–0.961 vs. OR 0.968, 95% CI 0.966–0.971, p < 0.001). However, absolute risk of in-hospital mortality remained higher in patients with haematological malignancy. Older age, higher SOFA score, presence of comorbidities, and mechanical ventilation were associated with increased mortality. Leukopenia (white cell count < 1.0 × 109 cells/L) was not associated with increased mortality in patients with haematological malignancy (p = 0.60).ConclusionsSepsis mortality has improved in patients with haematological malignancy admitted to ICU. However, mortality remains higher in patients with haematological malignancy than those without.Graphical abstract

Global, regional, and national burden of atrial fibrillation/flutter related to metabolic risks over three decades: estimates from the global burden of disease study 2019.

Atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF/AFL) remains a significant public health concern on a global scale, with metabolic risks playing an increasingly prominent role. This study aimed to investigate comprehensive epidemiological data and trends concerning the metabolic risks related-AF/AFL burden based on the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. The analysis of disease burden focused on numbers, age-standardized rates (ASR) of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), while considering factors of age, sex, sociodemographic index (SDI), and locations. In 2019, there was a culmination of 137179 deaths and 4099146 DALYs caused by metabolic risks related-AF/AFL worldwide, with an increase of 162.95% and 120.30% respectively from 1990. High and high-middle SDI regions predominantly carried the burden of AF/AFL associated with metabolic risks, while a shift towards lower SDI regions had been occurring. Montenegro had the highest recorded death rate (7.6 per 100000) and DALYs rate (146.3 per 100000). An asymmetrically inverted V-shaped correlation was found between SDI and deaths/DALYs rates. Moreover, females and the elderly exhibited higher AF/AFL burdens, and young adults (over 40 years old) also experienced an annual increase. The global AF/AFL burden related to metabolic risks has significantly increased over past three decades, with considerable spatiotemporal, gender-based, and age-related heterogeneity. These findings shed valuable light on the trends in the burden of metabolic risks related-AF/AFL, and offered insights into corresponding strategies.

A 30 m annual cropland dataset of China from 1986 to 2021

A 30 m annual cropland dataset of China from 1986 to 2021

Tracking annual dynamics of carbon storage of salt marsh plants in the Yellow River Delta national nature reserve of china based on sentinel-2 imagery during 2017–2022

Coastal salt marshes play a key role in coastal carbon sequestration. Understanding the spatial distribution and annual changes of carbon storage of salt marsh plants at a local scale is helpful for accurate protection and restoration. However, the annual carbon storage of salt marsh plants has not yet been obtained in the Yellow River Delta National Nature Reserve (YRDNNR), China. Here, we developed a fast and reliable method to produce an annual map of carbon storage of herbaceous salt marsh plants from 2017 to 2022 based on multi-year in situ data and 10-meter resolution Sentinel-2 images in YRDNNR. That is, a deep belief network based on conjugate gradient (CGDBN) pixel-level classification, a generative adversarial network with a constrained factor (GAN-CF) measured sample expansion and multiple linear regression (MLR) quantitative inversion algorithm is used. The results showed that: (1) The carbon storage of herbaceous salt marsh plants in the YRDNNR increased in 2017–2018 and 2019–2021, with an average carbon storage dynamic of 4.53–8.39 Mg/ha. (2) In 2021, the area of salt marsh vegetation increased significantly by 20 % compared to 2017. Although its area decreased sharply due to the removal of invasive species (S. alterniflora) in 2022, the carbon storage per unit area of salt marsh plants remained at 7.77 Mg/ha. (3) The carbon storage of salt marsh vegetation showed a gradient change along the community succession from land to sea. Estimating annual carbon storage of salt marsh plants could provide basic data for recognizing the ‘blue carbon’ contribution of coastal plants and managing the coastal salt marsh ecosystem in Yellow River Delta.

Changes in sleep score and leisure-time physical activity, their combination, and all-cause mortality in middle-aged and older Chinese adults: The Dongfeng-Tongji cohort study

ObjectivesTo prospectively investigate the associations of longitudinal changes in sleep score and LTPA and their combination with all-cause mortality. MethodsAmong 12,543 participants (mean age: 66.1 years) from the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort, we calculated sleep score (range, 0–4, integrating bedtime, sleep duration, sleep quality, and midday napping, higher score indicating healthier sleep) and LTPA at baseline (2008–2010) and the first follow-up (2013) surveys and their 5-year changes (defining stable sleep score as no change and stable LTPA as change within 150 min/week). We prospectively documented deaths from the first follow-up survey (2013) through December 31, 2018. ResultsDuring a mean 5.5-year follow-up, 792 deaths occurred. The 5-year changes in sleep score and LTPA were inversely associated with all-cause mortality risk, regardless of their initial values. When assessing 5-year changes in sleep score and LTPA jointly, compared with the stable sleep score-stable LTPA group, the decreased sleep score-decreased LTPA group had a 40 % (5–85 %) higher all-cause mortality risk, whereas the increased sleep score-increased LTPA group had a 34 % (9–52 %) lower risk. The direction of the joint association was mainly driven by sleep score change. Participants maintaining sleep scores ≥ 3 and LTPA ≥ 150 min/week over 5 years had a 44 % (28–56 %) lower all-cause mortality risk. ConclusionsPromoting sleep hygiene and LTPA together may benefit efforts in reducing mortality risk, with particular attention to monitoring long-term sleep health.

Radiomics Analysis of Pericoronary Adipose Tissue From Baseline Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography Enables Prediction of Coronary Plaque Progression.

The relationship between plaque progression and pericoronary adipose tissue (PCAT) radiomics has not been comprehensively evaluated. We aim to predict plaque progression with PCAT radiomics features and evaluate their incremental value over quantitative plaque characteristics. Between January 2009 and December 2020, 500 patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease who underwent serial coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) ≥2 years apart were retrospectively analyzed and randomly stratified into a training and testing data set with a ratio of 7:3. Plaque progression was defined with annual change in plaque burden exceeding the median value in the entire cohort. Quantitative plaque characteristics and PCAT radiomics features were extracted from baseline CCTA. Then we built 3 models including quantitative plaque characteristics (model 1), PCAT radiomics features (model 2), and the combined model (model 3) to compare the prediction performance evaluated by area under the curve. The quantitative plaque characteristics of the training set showed the values of noncalcified plaque volume (NCPV), fibrous plaque volume, lesion length, and PCAT attenuation were larger in the plaque progression group than in the nonprogression group ( P < 0.05 for all). In multivariable logistic analysis, NCPV and PCAT attenuation were independent predictors of coronary plaque progression. PCAT radiomics exhibited significantly superior prediction over quantitative plaque characteristics both in the training (area under the curve: 0.814 vs 0.615, P < 0.001) and testing (0.736 vs 0.594, P = 0.007) data sets. NCPV and PCAT attenuation were independent predictors of coronary plaque progression. PCAT radiomics derived from baseline CCTA achieved significantly better prediction than quantitative plaque characteristics.

Disparities in Multiple Myeloma Mortality Rate Trends by Demographic Status in the USA.

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a hematological malignancy that arises when plasma cells undergo malignant monoclonal proliferation. This study aimed to assess the demographic disparities and temporal trends in the mortality rates of this disease. We employed the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database. We found that for the overall U.S. population, the age-adjusted mortality rate per 1,000,000 (AAMR) decreased from 1999 to 2020. However, rates differed between demographic groups. In addition, we sought to find a significant average annual percent change (AAPC) in mortality rate from 1999 to 2020 for various demographic populations and compared groups to find disparities in mortality rate trend. In 2020, the AAMR due to MM was 38.0 and for women 24.1. The AAPC in AAMR from 1999 to 2020 in men was -1.0% (95%CI=-1.3 to -0.7) and in women was -1.6% (95%CI=-1.6 to -2.3). A significant difference in trend by sex was found, where women had a higher rate of decline. In 2020, the AAMR for the American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) population was 15.0, the Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) had 14.8, the Black and African American population had an AAMR of 55.6 and the White population had an AAMR of 28.1. The AAPC for the AI/AN population was -2.2% (95%CI=-3.5 to -0.9), for the AAPI population it was -0.9% (95%CI=-1.5 to -0.4), the Black and African American population had -1.5% (95%CI=-2.2 to -0.8) and the AAPC for the White population was -1.1% (95%CI=-1.6 to -0.6). A significant difference in trend of decline was found between the AAPI and Black and African American populations and between the AI/AN and Black and African American populations. When assessing the U.S. by states, the mid-southeast U.S. had the greatest density of the states with high AAMRs. These findings suggest which populations are at increased risk for mortality due to multiple myeloma and where we should apply additional resources and research.

Disparities in Trend of Renal Cell Carcinoma Mortality in the United States.

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) accounts for 90% of malignant neoplasms of the kidney. In this report, the CDC WONDER database was accessed to retrieve age-adjusted mortality data from 1999 to 2020 due to RCC, defined as ICD-10 Code: C64 Malignant neoplasm of kidney except renal pelvis, for various demographics to investigate trends and potential disparities. In 2020, the overall age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) due to RCC in the USA was 42.4 per 1,000,000. The average annual percent change (AAPC) for the USA from 1999 to 2020 was -0.6%. Notably, in 2020, men had a higher AAMR than women, 63.9 compared to 25.7, and a significant difference in AAPC trend was identified between men (-0.5%) and women (-1.0%). When investigating trends according to race in 2020, the Asian population displayed the lowest AAMR at 18.9. When determining AAPC from 1999 to 2020 according to race group, the American Indian group demonstrated the greatest decline in AAPC at -1.3%, followed by the Black (-1.2%) and White populations (-0.5%). The Asian population did not exhibit a significant AAPC. Moreover, the rates between these three groups were statistically significantly different- indicating disparities in trend based on race. This investigation assesses the AAMR for different demographic groups of the USA population to identify disparities and guide resource allocation strategies.

Epidemiology and demographic patterns of cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms deaths in Western Europe: a 1990–2019 analysis

ObjectivesCardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and neoplasms have been considered as public health concerns worldwide. This study aimed to estimate the epidemiological patterns of death burden on CVDs and neoplasms and its attributable risk factors in Western Europe from 1990 to 2019 to discuss the potential causes of the disparities. Study design and methodsWe collected data on CVDs and neoplasms deaths in 24 Western European countries from the Global Burden of Disease Study. We analyzed patterns by age, sex, country, and associated risk factors. The results include percentages of total deaths, age-standardized death rates per 100,000 population, and uncertainty intervals (UIs). Time trends were assessed using annual percent change. ResultsIn 2019, CVDs and neoplasms accounted for 33.54% and 30.15% of Western Europe's total deaths, with age-standardized death rates of 128.05 (95% UI: 135.37, 113.02) and 137.51 (95% UI: 142.54, 128.01) per 100,000. Over 1990–2019, CVDs rates decreased by 54.97%, and neoplasms rates decreased by 19.54%. Top CVDs subtypes were ischemic heart disease and stroke; top cancers for neoplasms were lung and colorectal. Highest CVD death burdens were in Finland, Greece, Austria; neoplasm burdens in Monaco, San Marino, Andorra. The major risk factors were metabolic (CVDs) and behavioral (neoplasms). Gender differences revealed higher CVDs death burden in males, while neoplasms burden varied by risk factors and age groups. ConclusionIn 2019, CVDs and neoplasms posed significant health risks in Western Europe, with variations in death burdens and risk factors across genders, age groups, and countries. Future interventions should target vulnerable groups to lessen the impact of CVDs and neoplasms in the region.

Epidemiology, treatment and outcomes of primary renal sarcomas in adult patients

To assess epidemiology, clinical presentation, treatment and overall survival of adult patients with renal sarcomas, the 2004–2016 SEER and NCDB databases were queried for adult patients diagnosed with renal sarcoma, calculating average annual age-adjusted incidence rates (AAIR) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) as well as overall survival (OS). In n = 1279 included renal sarcoma patients, AAIR remained constant over the study period (average 0.53 cases/1million; AAPC = 0.7, p = 0.6). Leiomyosarcoma (AAIR 0.14 cases/1 million) and malignant rhabdoid tumors (0.06 cases/1 million) were most common. Sarcoma histiotypes demonstrated considerable heterogeneity regarding demographic and cancer-related variables. Patients presented with advanced local extent (T3 33.3%; T4 14.2%) or distant metastases (29.1%) and commonly underwent surgical resection (81.6%). Longer OS was independently associated with younger age, female sex, lower comorbidity index, low T stage, negative surgical margins, absence of tumor necrosis or distant metastases and leiomyosarcoma histiotype (multivariable p < 0.05 each). Treatment efficacy varied according to sarcoma histiotype (interaction p < 0.001). Accounting for 0.25% of renal malignancies, renal sarcomas include 43 histiotypes with distinct epidemiology, clinical presentation, outcomes and sensitivity to systemic therapy, thereby reflecting soft-tissue sarcoma behavior. Renal sarcoma treatment patterns follow recommendations by renal cancer guidelines with surgical resection as the cornerstone of therapy.

Abstract PO5-09-12: Unraveling the Intricacies of Racial Disparities in Breast Cancer in Brazil

Abstract Abstract Background: Over the past three decades, numerous countries have experienced a substantial decrease in breast cancer (BC) fatality, attributed to heightened consciousness, widened and earlier screening, and enhanced therapeutic interventions. However, these advancements have not eradicated the disparity in BC treatment across different racial and ethnic groups. In Brazil, the causes of these disparities are diverse and intricate, resembling health inequalities among ethnic communities observed in other countries. This study aimed to investigate the trends in BC incidence and mortality rates in Brazil, considering clinicopathological and sociodemographic variations, and placing particular emphasis on the severity of racial disparity concerning race/skin color. Patients and methods: Incidence trends for women with BC were analyzed using data from 13 Brazilian Population-Based Cancer Registries covering the period 2010-2015. Crude incidence ratios (CIRs) and the annual average percent change (AAPC) were calculated. Clinical and sociodemographic information from 348 Hospital-Based Cancer Registries spanning from 2000 to 2019 was also utilized. Meanwhile, mortality data for the years 2000-2020 were obtained from the National Mortality Information System. Racial and skin color data were collected through a self-declaration process, following the classification proposed by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, which included categories such as white, black, and brown/mixed race. In the analysis, black and brown/mixed race categories were combined as black. Yellow and indigenous categories were excluded. Statistical significance was defined as a p-value less than 0.05. To determine clinically relevant differences, a threshold of more than 5% disparity in proportional values was used as an arbitrary criterion. Results: Between 2010 and 2015, a total of 70,896 newly diagnosed cases of BC were recorded. Mean CIRs were 83.9/100,000 for the overall population, 101.3/100,000 for white women, and 59.7/100,000 for black women. Neither the group of white women (AAPC -1.7; 95% CI: -7.9 to 4.9; p = 0.506) nor the group of black women (AAPC -0.4; 95% CI: -5.0 to 4.5; p = 0.831) exhibited any significant changes in the incidence rate. Black women predominantly originated from underdeveloped regions (56.4%, p &amp;lt; 0.001), were referred by the public healthcare system in Brazil (79.0%, p &amp;lt; 0.001), had ≤ 8 years of schooling (68.7%, p &amp;lt; 0.001), were unmarried (50.9%, p&amp;lt; 0.001), reported alcohol consumption (20.9%, p &amp;lt; 0.001), and were diagnosed with advanced stage disease (60.1%, p &amp;lt; 0.001). The escalation in mortality rates among black women exhibited a notable difference, amounting to 3.8 times the increase observed among white women (AAPC + 2.3; 95% CI: 2.1 to 2.5; p &amp;lt; 0.001) (AAPC + 0.6; 95% CI: 0.5 to 0.7; p &amp;lt; 0.001). Conclusion: Despite the lower incidence of BC in black women compared to their white counterparts, there is a concerning rise in BC-related mortality rates among black women. This group exhibits a significantly unfavorable sociodemographic and clinicopathological profile. These results highlight the pressing need to address the multifaceted factors contributing to these disparities, encompassing socioeconomic disparities and unequal healthcare access. Keywords: Breast cancer; racial disparities; incidence; mortality. Citation Format: Jesse Lopes da Silva, Andreia Cristina De Melo, Mariana Espirito Santo Rodrigues, Lucas Zanetti de Albuquerque, Luiz Claudio Santos Thuler. Unraveling the Intricacies of Racial Disparities in Breast Cancer in Brazil [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO5-09-12.

Discrepancies in dengue burden estimates: a comparative analysis of reported cases and global burden of disease study, 2010-2019.

Dengue is a significant mosquito-borne disease. Several studies have utilized estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to assess the global, regional or national burden of dengue over time. However, our recent investigation suggests that GBD's estimates for dengue cases in Taiwan are unrealistically high. The current study extends the scope to compare reported dengue cases with GBD estimates across 30 high-burden countries and territories, aiming to assess the accuracy and interpretability of the GBD's dengue estimates. Data for this study were sourced from the GBD 2019 study and various national and international databases documenting reported dengue cases. The analysis targeted the top 30 countries and territories with the highest 10-year average of reported cases from 2010 to 2019. Discrepancies were quantified by computing absolute differences and ratios between the 10-year average of reported cases and GBD estimates. Coefficients of variation (CV) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess variations and trends in the two data sources. Significant discrepancies were noted between reported data and GBD estimates in the number of dengue cases, incidence rates, and EAPCs. GBD estimates were substantially higher than reported cases for many entities, with the most notable differences found in China (570.0-fold), India (303.0-fold), Bangladesh (115.4-fold), Taiwan (85.5-fold) and Indonesia (23.2-fold). Furthermore, the GBD's estimates did not accurately reflect the extensive yearly fluctuations in dengue outbreaks, particularly in non-endemic regions such as Taiwan, China and Argentina, as evidenced by high CVs. This study reveals substantial discrepancies between GBD estimates and reported dengue cases, underscoring the imperative for comprehensive analysis in areas with pronounced disparities. The failure of GBD estimates to represent the considerable annual fluctuations in dengue outbreaks highlights the critical need for improvement in disease burden estimation methodologies for dengue.

Abstract PO3-09-11: Age Group Analysis of Breast Cancer Patterns in Brazil: Findings from Population-Based Registries

Abstract Background: The rising breast cancer (BC) incidence among young women is potentially influenced by modifiable genetic and reproductive risk factors, as well as the increased incidence among older women may be associated with lifestyle-related factors and screening programs. This study examines BC incidence and mortality rates across different age groups in Brazil, focusing on clinicopathological and sociodemographic variations. Patients and methods: By using data from 13 Brazilian Population-Based Cancer Registries spanning the period 2010-2015, this study analyzed incidence trends among women with BC. Crude incidence ratios (CIRs) and the annual average percent change (AAPC) were computed. Additionally, clinical and sociodemographic information from 348 Hospital-Based Cancer Registries covering 2000-2019 was incorporated. Mortality data for the years 2000-2020 were obtained from the National Mortality Information System. Comparative analyses were conducted across three predefined age groups: &amp;lt; 40, 40-69, and ≥ 70 years. Statistical significance was defined as a p-value &amp;lt; 0.05, while a threshold of more than 5% difference in proportional values was used as a criterion to identify clinically relevant differentials. Results: Between 2010 and 2015, a total of 205,966 newly diagnosed cases of BC were documented. The CIRs were 7.1/100,000 for the age group &amp;lt; 40, 156.5/100,000 for the age group 40-69, and 247.5/100,000 for the age group ≥ 70 years. Within the scope of the analyzed age groups, it was observed that solely the age group &amp;lt; 40 years exhibited a noteworthy and persistent increase in the rate of occurrence (AAPC +1.6; 95% CI: 1.0 to 2.2; p &amp;lt; 0.001). This age group also displayed a significantly higher proportion of black women (53%, p &amp;lt; 0.001), a higher prevalence of alcohol consumption (20.5%, p &amp;lt; 0.001), and a greater likelihood of receiving multiple treatment modalities (60.7%, p &amp;lt; 0.001). In contrast, the age group ≥ 70 years experienced a more extended time delay of &amp;gt; 60 days from diagnosis to treatment onset (54%, p &amp;lt; 0.001), while exhibiting a higher utilization rate of hormone therapy (45.3%, p &amp;lt; 0.01). The mortality rates witnessed a significant increase across all age categories, with the age group &amp;lt; 40 years manifesting the most substantial escalation (AAPC +1.8%; 95% CI: 1.6 to 2.1; p &amp;lt; 0.001). This rise was comparatively more than double the rate observed in the 40-69 age group (AAPC +0.7%; 95% CI: 0.5 to 0.8; p &amp;lt; 0.001) and exactly twice as high as the rate recorded in the age group &amp;gt; 70 years (AAPC +0.9%; 95% CI: 0.7 to 1.1 ; p &amp;lt; 0.001). Conclusion: This study reveals substantial disparities in BC incidence and mortality rates, as well as significant differences in clinicopathological and sociodemographic features, among women aged &amp;lt; 40 compared to those in the 40-69 and ≥ 70 years in Brazil. Keywords: Breast cancer; age groups; incidence; mortality. Citation Format: Jesse Lopes da Silva, Andreia Cristina De Melo, Lucas Zanetti de Albuquerque, Mariana Espirito Santo Rodrigues, Luiz Claudio Santos Thuler. Age Group Analysis of Breast Cancer Patterns in Brazil: Findings from Population-Based Registries [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO3-09-11.

Longitudinal associations of skipping breakfast and night eating with 4-year changes in weight and waist circumference among Chinese adults

BackgroundThe longitudinal association between specific eating behaviors, such as skipping breakfast and night eating, and changes in weight and waist circumference (WC) has been understudied. ObjectivesThe objective of this study was to investigate whether skipping breakfast and night eating were individually or jointly associated with the annual changes in weight and WC. MethodsIn the current longitudinal study, included were 48,150 Chinese adults (mean age: 50.1 ± 13.9 y) who were free of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer in 2014, when data on dietary intake and the presence of night-eating behavior and skipping breakfast were collected via questionnaires. Weight and WC were measured repeatedly in 2014, 2016, and 2018. The associations between night eating and/or skipping breakfast and annual changes in weight and WC were evaluated using the generalized estimating equation models, adjusting for age, sex, total energy, diet quality, and other potential confounders. ResultsDuring 4-y of follow-up, among people who had both 2 unhealthy eating behaviors, the mean difference in annual weight change was 0.53 kg (95% confidence interval: 0.43, 0.63 kg) and 0.41 cm (95% confidence interval: 0.27, 0.55 cm) in annual WC change, compared with participants without either behavior. The associations of eating behaviors and change in weight and WC were more pronounced in participants with higher baseline body mass index (in kg/m2) relative to their counterparts. Similarly, the associations between these eating behaviors and WC change were stronger in those with poorer diet quality relative to those with better diet quality. ConclusionsIndividuals with frequent skipping breakfast and/or night eating experienced faster gains in weight and WC, even after adjusting for diet quality and energy intake.

Generalizable Approach to Quantifying Guideline-Directed Medical Therapy.

Quantifying guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) intensity is foundational for improving heart failure (HF) care. Existing measures discount dose intensity or use inconsistent weighting. The Kansas City Medical Optimization (KCMO) score is the average of total daily to target dose percentages for eligible GDMT, reflecting the percentage of optimal GDMT prescribed (range, 0-100). In Change the Management of Patients With HF, we computed KCMO, HF collaboratory (0-7), and modified HF Collaboratory (0-100) scores for each patient at baseline and for 1-year change in established GDMT at the time (mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist, β-blocker, ACE [angiotensin-converting enzyme] inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker/angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor). We compared baseline and 1-year change distributions and the coefficient of variation (SD/mean) across scores. Among 4532 patients at baseline, mean KCMO, HF collaboratory, and modified HF Collaboratory scores were 38.8 (SD, 25.7), 3.4 (1.7), and 42.2 (22.2), respectively. The mean 1-year change (n=4061) for KCMO was -1.94 (17.8); HF collaborator, -0.11 (1.32); and modified HF Collaboratory, -1.35 (19.8). KCMO had the highest coefficient of variation (0.66), indicating greater variability around the mean than the HF collaboratory (0.49) and modified HF Collaboratory (0.53) scores, reflecting higher resolution of the variability in GDMT intensity across patients. KCMO measures GDMT intensity by incorporating dosing and treatment eligibility, provides more granularity than existing methods, is easily interpretable (percentage of ideal GDMT), and can be adapted as performance measures evolve. Further study of its association with outcomes and its usefulness for quality assessment and improvement is needed.

Two decades of influenza and pneumonia mortality trends: Demographics, regional shifts and disparities in the United States: 1999 to 2020

In the 20th century, influenza and pneumonia constituted the largest proportion of infectious disease deaths in the United States. Despite progress in management, US mortality trends for these diseases have not been thoroughly investigated. We aim to examine the patterns of influenza and pneumonia-related deaths among US residents. Crude death rates and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 individuals were calculated using influenza and pneumonia mortality data (International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision codes: J09-J18) from the CDC WONDER database. Annual percentage changes with a 95% confidence interval were determined using joinpoint regression analysis. Average annual percentage changes were computed as the weighted average of annual percentage changes. From 1999 to 2020, US influenza and pneumonia deaths totaled 1,257,088 (AAMR: 17.09), with a significantly decreasing AAMR (-2.94). Males had a higher AAMR (20.13) than females (15.02). Non-Hispanic American Indians had the highest AAMR (20.44), while Hispanics had the lowest AAMR (13.91). The Northeast had the highest AAMR (18.02). All other regions had similar AAMRs. Rural regions had a consistently higher AAMR (19.80) than urban regions (AAMR: 16.51). Tailoring interventions towardhigh-risk groups can enhance the effectiveness of preventive measures, vaccination, and healthcare access.

Impact of the State of Emergency Declaration for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 Pandemic Suppression on Individuals with Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus.

Objective To examine the impact of lifestyle changes caused by the first emergency declaration issued in 2020 on glycemic control and body weight changes in Japanese individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Methods This study included Japanese individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus who visited Tokyo Women's Medical University Hospital between January 2019 and September 2020 (n=278). Seasonal changes in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels and the body mass index (BMI) were compared. A self-administered questionnaire regarding changes in treatment, diet, exercise, sleep, and telecommuting was used to assess lifestyle changes. Results Although HbA1c levels decreased from winter to summer in 2019 and 2020, the annual change was slightly but significantly greater in 2020 than in 2019. Seasonal changes in the BMI between 2019 and 2020 were also significantly different. An increase in the daily insulin dose, overall blood glucose level, diurnal change in blood glucose level, and food intake were significantly associated with increased HbA1c levels. Furthermore, HbA1c levels decreased with increasing moderate physical activity and sleep duration. The change in the BMI increased with increasing insulin dose, overall high blood glucose levels, and food intake. However, an increase in moderate physical activity was associated with a decrease in the BMI. HbA1c levels were significantly lower after the first emergency declaration in individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus than that before the emergency declaration, even after accounting for seasonal variations. Conclusion Decreased HbA1c levels were associated with a decreased food intake, increased moderate exercise, and increased sleep duration during the state of emergency. The BMI remained relatively unchanged.