Annual Change Research Articles

Trends in suicide mortality rates in the Republic of Cyprus between 2004 and 2020: changes in age, gender and suicide method.

The Republic of Cyprus has recorded the greatest increase in suicide mortality among Eastern Mediterranean countries, with an average annual increase of 5.1% in 2000-2019. To investigate trends in suicide mortality rates between 2004 and 2020 in the Republic of Cyprus, with a focus on age, gender and suicide methods. Suicide deaths (ICD-10 taxonomy, including 'undetermined' code) and population denominators were obtained from the National Mortality Registry and Statistical Office, respectively. Directly standardised (European Standard) mortality rates were calculated for four gender and age groups. Annual change was estimated using Poisson regression models with interaction terms to assess differential trends over different time periods. There were 560 suicide deaths; these were four times more frequent in men, and approximately 80% were classified as 'violent' for both genders. The male suicide rate doubled from 4-5 to 9-10 per 100 000, mostly before 2012, representing a 9% annual change (rate ratio = 1.09, 95% CI 1.03, 1.15; P = 0.002). From 2013, the trend reversed (effect modification P < 0.001) with a 4% annual decrease (95% CI -9%, 1%). Declines were not uniform across all age groups; rates in males aged 45-64 years continued to rise, surpassing the previously high rate in males aged 25-44 years. Rates in females declined from 4-5 per 100 000 to 2-3 over the study period. Overall, the male-to-female suicide rate ratio was 5.33 (95% CI 3.46, 8.19) in 2017-2020, compared with 2.73 (1.88, 3.95) in 2004-2008. Although suicide rates remain relatively low, the gender differential has widened in the Republic of Cyprus. Further analysis of trends in relation to unemployment and other socioeconomic indicators is warranted.

Global Trends and Inequalities of Liver Complications Related to Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease: An Analysis From 1990 to 2021.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease is a significant driver of the increasing global burden of chronic liver disease. This study aimed to describe the temporal trends and inequalities of liver complications related to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (LC-MASLD) by geographical region, age and sex during 1990-2021. Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021 data were analysed to assess LC-MASLD incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Temporal trends during 1990-2021 were measured by 'estimated annual percentage change' (EAPC). Inequalities of LC-MASLD burden across countries were evaluated by the slope index of inequality (SII) and the relative concentration index (RCI). During 1990-2021, LC-MASLD rose annually by 0.73% in incidence and prevalence, 0.19% in mortality and 0.16% in DALYs. In 2021, the Middle East and North Africa had the highest incidence and prevalence and Andean and Central Latin America had the highest mortality and DALY rates. While LC-MASLD incidence was earliest in the 15-19 age group, both prevalence and DALY rates peaked at 75-79 years for both sexes. Inequalities in mortality and DALYs by countries' socioeconomic development index increased during 1990-2021, demonstrated by a decline in SII from -0.09 to -0.56 per 100 000 for mortality and from 1.41 to -7.74 per 100 000 for DALYs. RCI demonstrated similar findings. The LC-MASLD burden is increasing globally, especially in economically disadvantaged countries, with widening disease inequalities during 1990-2021. Effective prevention and subregional interventions are crucial, with a specific focus on resource optimisation for disadvantaged populations.

Trends in the incidence and survival of women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer from 1990 to 2019: a large population-based analysis

Hormone receptor-positive breast cancer (BC) is the most prevalent subtype of BC and is generally correlated with a favorable prognosis. This study aimed to determine the incidence and survival trends among women diagnosed with hormone receptor-positive BC between 1990 and 2019. Female patients with hormone receptor-positive BC for calendar years 1990–2019 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and categorized into six diagnostic groups according to the year of diagnosis. Age-adjusted incidence rates (IRs) were calculated using joinpoint regression. We used the Kaplan–Meier method and multivariate Cox regression analyses to determine the association between diagnostic groups, and overall survival (OS) and BC-specific survival (BCSS). The final analysis included 370,729 women, among whom 37,943 (10.2%), 49,266 (13.3%), 55,652 (15.0%), 64,451 (17.4%), 77,127 (20.8%), and 86,290 (23.3%) were diagnosed between 1990 and 1994, 1995–1999, 2000–2004, 2005–2009, 2010–2014, and 2015–2019, respectively. Within the overall cohort, IRs gradually increased from 70 per 100,000 in 1990 to 113 per 100,000 in 2019 (average annual percent change, 1.59%; 95% CI, 1.18–1.99). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the survival outcomes gradually improved over nearly three decades among hormone receptor-positive BC patients, with a 0.8% and 1.3% decrease in risk for all-cause and BC-specific mortality each year, respectively. Compared to 1990–1994, hormone receptor-positive BC patients diagnosed in 2015–2019 had a 22% lower risk of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR], 0.78; 95% CI, 0.76–0.81) and a 27% lower risk of BC-specific death (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.70–0.76). The development of treatment strategies within the past three decades, especially endocrine therapy, may contribute to the continuous improvement of clinical outcomes in patients with hormone receptor-positive BC.

Global, regional, and national temporal trends in metabolism-related ischemic stroke mortality and disability from 1990 to 2021

BackgroundStroke ranks as the second leading cause of mortality and the third leading cause of disability worldwide. Nonetheless, the evolving burden of ischemic stroke attributable to various metabolic risk factors remains inadequately elucidated. A thorough grasp of these trends is crucial for a nuanced comprehension of stroke epidemiology and the formulation of effective preventive and interventional measures. MethodBased on the Global Burden of Disease, Injury, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD), we analyzed national temporal trends in the burden of metabolism-associated ischemic stroke in 204 countries and territories globally from 1990-2021, as measured by the average annual percentage change (AAPC), using join-point regression models. The burden of disease was assessed using age-standardized (ASR) mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) per 100 000 population. Cross-country inequalities in ischemic stroke burden were quantified using standard health equity methods and changes in ischemic stroke burden were projected to 2045. ResultsGlobally, the ASR for ischemic stroke mortality linked to overall dietary metabolic risk declined by an average of 1.6% annually, while the ASR for disability-adjusted life years saw an average annual decrease of 1.3%. High systolic blood pressure remained a primary contributor to metabolism-related ischemic stroke, accounting for 57.9% of deaths and 58.0% of disability in 2021. Disparities associated with the sociodemographic index (SDI) diminished, with the gap in DALYs between countries with the highest and lowest SDIs narrowing from 592.2 (95% CI: 440.2-744.4) to 480.4 (95% CI: 309.7-651.2) in 2021. Projections indicate a continued decline in overall metabolism-related ischemic stroke deaths, mortality rates, and ASRs through 2045, although an increase in DALYs and ASRs is anticipated within the male population. ConclusionThe global burden of metabolic risk-associated ischemic stroke has generally been decreasing from 2019 to 2021. This study highlights significant challenges in controlling and managing metabolic risk-associated ischemic stroke, including an increase in the number of cases in certain countries and regions, as well as an uneven distribution worldwide. These findings may provide valuable insights for the development of improved public health policies and the rational allocation of healthcare resources.

Iron Deficiency: Global Trends and Projections from 1990 to 2050.

Iron deficiency (ID) remains the leading cause of anemia, affects a vast number of persons globally, and continues to be a significant global health burden. Comprehending the patterns of ID burden is essential for developing targeted public health policies. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study for the years 1990-2021, the XGBoost model was constructed to predict prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for the period 2022-2050, based on key demographic variables. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were applied to interpret the contributions of each variable to the model's predictions. Additionally, the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model was used to evaluate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on both prevalence and DALYs. The relationship between the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and ID's age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) as well as the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) was also analyzed to assess the influence of socioeconomic development on disease burden. The global prevalent cases of ID grew from 984.61 million in 1990 to 1270.64 million in 2021 and are projected to reach 1439.99 million by 2050. Similarly, global DALYs from ID increased from 28.41 million in 1990 to 32.32 million in 2021, with a projected rise to 36.13 million by 2050. The ASPR declined from 18,204/100,000 in 1990 to 16,433/100,000 in 2021, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -0.36% over this period. It is expected to decrease further to 15,922 by 2050, with an EAPC of -0.09% between 2021 and 2050. The ASDR was 518/100,000 in 1990 and 424/100,000 in 2021, with an EAPC of -0.68% from 1990 to 2021. It is expected to remain relatively stable at 419/100,000 by 2050, with an EAPC of -0.02% between 2021 and 2050. In 2021, the highest ASPRs were recorded in Senegal (34,421/100,000), Mali (34,233/100,000), and Pakistan (33,942/100,000). By 2050, Mali (35,070/100,000), Senegal (34,132/100,000), and Zambia (33,149/100,000) are projected to lead. For ASDR, Yemen (1405/100,000), Mozambique (1149/100,000), and Mali (1093/100,000) had the highest rates in 2021. By 2050, Yemen (1388/100,000), Mali (1181/100,000), and Mozambique (1177/100,000) are expected to remain the highest. SHAP values demonstrated that gender was the leading predictor of ID, with age and year showing negative contributions. Females aged 10 to 60 consistently showed higher prevalence and DALYs rates compared to males, with the under-5 age group having the highest rates for both. Additionally, men aged 80 and above exhibited a rapid increase in prevalence. Furthermore, the ASPR and ASDR were significantly higher in regions with a lower SDI, highlighting the greater burden of ID in less developed regions. ID remains a significant global health concern, with its burden projected to persist through 2050, particularly in lower-SDI regions. Despite declines in ASPR and ASDR, total cases and DALYs are expected to rise. SHAP analysis revealed that gender had the greatest influence on the model's predictions, while both age and year showed overall negative contributions to ID risk. Children under 5, women under 60, and elderly men aged 80+ were the most vulnerable groups. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions, such as improved nutrition, early screening, and addressing socioeconomic drivers through iron supplementation programs in low-SDI regions.

Estimation of tuberculosis mortality burden in spain: a review of the major data sources

IntroductionIn Spain, notifications of cases of tuberculosis (TB) are registered through the National Epidemiological Surveillance Network (RENAVE). The Minimum Basic Data Set (CMBD) provides information on hospital discharge and the Statistics National Institute (INE) draws on medical death certificates. This study aimed to describe TB mortality in Spain and to compare estimates across data sources, as well as with EU/EEA countries.Material and MethodsA retrospective study of TB data between 2008 −2021 was performed. Mortality rates (MR) were calculated for the three databases as well as fatality rates (CFR) for TB location and HIV status using RENAVE data. Time trends were calculated and the average MR and annual average percentage change for Spain were compared with EU/EEA countries.ResultsBetween 2008 and 2021, 4127 TB deaths were reported to RENAVE, 3877 to INE and 4775 to CMBD. The MR was 0.62 per 100,000 inhabitants for RENAVE, 0.59 for INE and 0.72 for CMBD. A statistically significant downward annual trend was observed. Highest MR across all databases were found in men and in those over 80 years old. CFR was higher for meningeal TB and for HIV patients with a risk ratio of 2.02 (95%CI: 1.82-2.2; p&lt;0.05).ConclusionAlthough the TB MR in Spain has followed a downward annual trend, it is necessary to continue improving prevention, diagnosis and treatment. This will require comprehensive measurement, better knowledge and better use of all information to complement surveillance systems.

Trends in racial/ethnic and geographic disparities in substance use disorders mortality in the United States, 2000-2019.

Substance use disorders (SUD) are a major public health concern in the United States. This study examined racial/ethnic and state-level disparities in SUD mortality in the United States from 2000 to 2019. Age-standardized mortality rates for SUD were obtained for 5 racial/ethnic groups (White respondents, Black respondents, Latino, Asian-Pacific Islander [API], American Indian/Alaska Native [AIAN]) by state and sex from 2000 to 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to model temporal trends overall and by demographic factors. From 2000 to 2019, the overall mortality rate increased from 8.0 to 28.8 deaths per 100,000 population across all groups. AIANs had the highest mortality in 2019 (57.8 per 100,000), followed by Black respondents, White respondents, Latinos, and APIs. Significant increases occurred across all racial/ethnic groups, with the greatest average annual percentage change (AAPC2000-2019) among White respondents (6.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.2%-7.3%), APIs (6.0%, 95% CI: 5.6%-6.2%), and AIANs (5.9%, 95% CI: 5.6%-6.2%). Mortality rates increased more rapidly for females than males among White respondents, AIANs, Black respondents, and Latinos. Substantial state-level variation emerged, with the highest mortality rates in 2019 seen in West Virginia, the District of Columbia, Delaware, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Racial/ethnic and geographic disparities in SUD mortality have widened significantly from 2000 to 2019, highlighting priority areas for prevention efforts. This study provides detailed insights into long-term trends in racial, ethnic, and geographic disparities in SUD mortality across the United States, informing targeted prevention and intervention strategies.

Trends in gestational age at live birth in Scotland from 2005 to 2019: a population-based study

Background Gestation at birth is associated with short and long-term outcomes. This study used high quality, national, administrative data to examine trends in gestation at birth in Scotland. Methods This observational study used maternity hospital discharge records for 2005 to 2019 to determine trends in the percentage of live births that were preterm (&lt;37 weeks gestation), term (37–41 weeks), and post-term (≥42 weeks), overall and by maternal age and deprivation category. Preterm births were further examined by category of preterm birth (moderate to late [32–36 weeks]; very [28–31 weeks]; extremely [&lt;28 weeks] preterm), and onset of labour (spontaneous; provider-initiated). Singleton and multiple births were examined separately. Aggregate logistic regression was used to estimate the annual change in the odds of a birth being in a specified gestational category. Results The percentage of singleton births in Scotland that were preterm decreased from 2005 (6.5%, 3,361/51,665) to 2010 (5.8%, 3268/56344), then increased to 2019 (7.2%, 3,408/47,507). The percentage of singleton births that were spontaneous moderate to late, very, and extremely preterm all increased between 2010 and 2019. The percentage of singleton births that were provider-initiated moderate to late preterm also increased between 2010 and 2019, however provider-initiated very or extremely preterm birth decreased. The percentage of singleton births that were preterm increased over time across all maternal age and deprivation categories, with increases greatest in groups at highest baseline risk. The percentage of singleton births that were post-term increased from 2005 to 2009, then decreased to 2019. Conclusions There has been an increase in spontaneous preterm birth from 2010 to 2019, which is not fully explained by changes in maternal age or deprivation. Further research to examine the contribution of other, preventable, risk factors is warranted. Trends in provider-initiated preterm birth, and post-term birth, are likely to reflect changing clinical practice.

The extent of overtourism in some European locations using multi-criteria decision-making methods between 2014 and 2023

Purpose Overtourism has been identified as a significant global problem with numbers of negative externalities. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the establishment of a standard that objectively measures the extent of tourism to produce a dynamic ranking of selected European settlements, as there is a lack of studies using sophisticated statistical methods to analyse secondary data on overtourism. Design/methodology/approach The 28 selected sites, studied according to their involvement in overtourism, were ranked using multi-criteria decision-Mmaking Methods between 2014 and 2023. Rankings were calculated by VIKOR, TOPSIS and MMOORA, and an aggregate ranking was created by using the cross-entropy optimization. Additionally, the annual changes in the rankings were presented graphically using principal component analysis on a two-dimensional space, referred to as the “sites' space.” Finally, the sites were clustered into three distinct groups based on their level of overtourism: less, medium and more. This was achieved through the use of the K-means algorithm. Findings Following the onset of the pandemic in 2020, there was a notable decline in overtourism. However, following the year 2021, the numbers began to rise once more, and by 2022, they had returned to their pre-pandemic levels. Among the methods, MMOORA demonstrated the most effective performance in comparison to the optimal ranking. Originality/value The applied methods with novel rank aggregation could also shed light on the most relevant indicators to overtourism. These included the number of nights spent in paid accommodation per population, the number of overnight visits per population and the number of air passengers.

The global death and disability burden associated with a high BMI in children and adolescents, 1990-2019.

Exploring changing trends in the burden caused by overweight and obesity among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels, based on data from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2019. The annual number and rate of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with a high BMI among children and adolescents at global, regional, and national levels by age groups, sexes, and the sociodemographic index from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the GBD study 2019. Change percentage for number, and the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for rate were calculated to determine the temporal trends. From 1990 to 2019, global high BMI-related deaths decreased by 34% but DALYs increased by 48%. Death rates in females were higher than in males, although both showed decreasing trends. For the rate of DALYs, both sexes showed increasing trends, but since 1999, the rate in males has surpassed that in females. A high BMI had the greatest impact on children under 5 years of age, and the burden in other age groups continued to increase. Regionally, High-income Asia Pacific experienced the fastest decrease in death rate (EAPC=-9.57), and East Asia saw the fastest increase in the DALYs rate (EAPC= 3.47). Globally, as age increases, the proportion of disease burden attributed to a high BMI in females generally increases. Our findings emphasize the urgent need to improve efforts to prevent children and adolescents becoming overweight and obese.

A Population-Based Analysis of the Cancer Incidence in Individuals under 50 in a Northern Italian Province: Focusing on Regional Disparities and Public Health Implications.

International studies have shown an increase in cancer incidence among young adults, raising public concern. This study aims examines trends in the cancer incidence among individuals aged 15-49 years in a province of Northern Italy, covering diagnoses from 1996 to 2021, and compares the annual percentage change (APC) with national and international data. In males, the overall cancer incidence showed a modest increase between 1996 and 2013 (APC 1.6), followed by a decline in the subsequent years (APC -2.5). In females, there was a modest increase over the entire period (APC 1.0). The lung cancer incidence decreased in both sexes (APC -3.9 in males and APC -3.3 in females), while a decrease was observed for colorectal cancers in women (APC -2.4). Since 2015, the thyroid cancer incidence declined significantly in females (APC -10.2), while an increase was noted in males (APC 2.5). The testicular cancer incidence rose in males (APC 1.5), and the melanoma incidence increased in both sexes (APC 3.4 in males and APC 3.9 in females). The breast cancer incidence remained stable (APC 0.3). These results underline the importance of promoting healthy lifestyles even among younger generations to address emerging cancer trends and support cancer prevention efforts.

Sex disparities in global burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer: analysis of Global Burden of Disease study from 2010 to 2019.

The global burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) has been on the rise, making it a major public health concern. We aim to comprehensively analyze sex disparities in the temporal trends of GBTC incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) regionally and globally from 2010 to 2019. Age-standardized rates of GBTC incidence, death, and DALYs were analyzed utilizing the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. From 2010 to 2019, the estimated annual percent change (APC) of the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDALYs) due to GBTC globally decreased in both sexes (males, APC: -0.80%; APC: -1.00%) and (females, APC: -0.89%; APC: -0.96%). At the same time, age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) decreased only in males (APC: -0.82%) and remained stable in females. By regions, ASIRs and ASDR increased in both sexes only in Southeast Asia (SEA) but decreased in the other regions. All regions had decreased ASDALYs except for an increase in ASDALYs for females only in the SEA region (APC: 0.41%), and males have a stable trend. Our study reveals substantial geographic variance in the burden of GBTC, specifically in the SEA region. Therefore, localized interventional methodologies must be undertaken to effectively address this global burden from GBTC.

Global burden of atrial fibrillation attributable to high body mass index from 1990 to 2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

To assess the global burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) attributable to high body mass index (BMI) from 1990 to 2021 and analyze its spatiotemporal distribution characteristics. An observational study based on GBD 2021 data. Data on AF burden due to high BMI were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to evaluate temporal trends in age-standardized rates of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over 30 years. In 2021, high BMI-related AF caused 27,000 deaths and 725,000 DALYs globally, a 376% increase since 1990. Females and the elderly (aged 70+) bore a higher burden. Upper-middle-income regions surpassed high-income regions in AF burden. Australasia had the highest age-standardized rates, while High-income Asia Pacific and South Asia had the lowest. South Asia showed rapid growth in age-standardized death rates. The global burden of high BMI-related AF varies across regions and time, threatening global health, especially for females and the elderly. Targeted strategies are needed to reduce AF and obesity.

Trends of Diphtheria–Tetanus–Pertussis and Measles Vaccine Coverage Preceding and during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of the WHO European Region from 2000 to 2022

Available data highlights the significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global vaccination trends. Despite this, comprehensive evaluations of these changes at the European level are still scarce. This study examines coverage for diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTP) and measles-containing vaccines (MCV) in the WHO European Region from 2000 to 2022. Vaccination coverage data, defined as the percentage of surviving infants who received the first and third doses of DTP (DTP1 and DTP3) and the first and second doses of MCV (MCV1 and MCV2), were extracted from UNICEF databases. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to identify joinpoints in the time series and to estimate Annual Percent Changes (APCs) and Average Annual Percent Changes (AAPCs) over predefined timeframes. The coverages for DTP1 and MCV1 exhibit a similar trend, overall characterized by four joinpoints, one of which is in 2019. In contrast, the coverage for DTP3 does not show a significant temporal trend and lacks joinpoints, while the vaccination coverage for MCV2 shows a steadily increasing trend, with three identified joinpoints. A comparative analysis with the pre-pandemic period reveals a significant increase in the number of countries characterized by a decreasing trend during the pandemic period for all considered vaccination coverages, as indicated by the negative AAPC values. These results highlight the effect of the pandemic on childhood vaccination coverage. Compared to a mere descriptive analysis, the temporal analysis of trends using joinpoint regression provides significant opportunities to identify variations in vaccination coverages and pinpoint areas for intervention in future vaccination strategies.

A Binned Multilevel Regression Fitting Method for Monitoring Geladandong Glacier Elevation Changes from ICESat-2 Data

ABSTRACT Studying glacier changes is essential for understanding global glacier mass balance, patterns in climate change, and the potential consequences they may have. The glaciers of Geladandong Mountain serve as a crucial water source for the Yangtze River and its downstream regions. Any changes in the glacier at the river source will directly impact the ecological environment and water recycling process downstream. This study presents an approach for monitoring Geladandong Mountain glacier elevation changes using ICESat-2 data combined with a Binned Multilevel Regression Fitting Method (BMRFM). We analysed multi-year ICESat-2 data, considering various topographic features, to understand glaciers’ annual and seasonal elevation changes. Our research reveals significant spatial heterogeneity in glacier elevation changes, influenced by altitude, slope, and aspect factors. It demonstrates the effectiveness of ICESat-2 in glacier monitoring, offering insights into the impacts of climate change on glacier dynamics. Moreover, the results indicate a predominant trend of ongoing melting at lower altitudes, with a small amount of accretion at higher elevations. Over the last two decades, the overall elevation change rate is −0.23 ± 0.12 metres per year. Seasonal analysis shows substantial glacier thickening from April to August, primarily due to increased precipitation offsetting elevated temperatures. This study offers a robust method for monitoring glaciers using satellite data, thereby advancing the precision and reliability of glacier research.

8702 Age-Sex Differences in Global Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease Attributable to High LDL in the Last 3 Decades:Global, Regional, National Variations, Age Dynamics, and Implications for Global Health

Abstract Disclosure: V. Adedara: None. K. Maddineni: None. A. Dekhne: None. M. Chinthapalli: None. G. Potluri: None. A. Parisapogu: None. K. Markandu: None. H. Desai: None. Background: Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) stands as the foremost cause of mortality globally, contributing to 9.6 million deaths. Elevated levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) consistently feature among the risk factors associated with IHD. Methods: Employing the Global Burden of Disease framework, we computed mortality and DALYs linked to IHD attributable to LDL-C, stratified by age-sex, year, and covering 204 countries and territories during the period from 1990 to 2019. Non-fatal health outcomes were estimated using DISMOD MR 2.1, Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling. Results were expressed in absolute counts and age-standardized rates (ASR) per 100,000 person-years. Results: The total number of deaths attributed to IHD due to elevated LDL-C increased from 2.5 million (95% Uncertainty Interval: 2-3.1 million) in 1990 to 3.7 million (95% UI: 2.8-4.8 million) in 2019. Concurrently, DALYs increased from 60.4 million (95% UI: 50.4-70.7 million) in 1990 to 84.9 million (95% UI: 69.5-101.3 million) in 2019. In terms of ASR, the annual percentage change (APC) in death rates decreased by 36%, and DALY rates decreased by 32% from 1990 to 2019. Regionally, East Asia exhibited the highest increase in APC in death counts by 191%, followed by Commonwealth Low-Income countries at 164%, and Oceania at 160% during the same period. Conversely, the Commonwealth High-Income region experienced the highest decrease at 41%. Males displayed higher APC in death (48% vs. 44%) and DALYs (42% vs. 38%) compared to females over the last three decades. In terms of ASR, males observed a higher decrease compared to females. In 2019, the age group 80-84 years had the highest number of deaths at 534,079 (264,177-813,898), while DALYs were most pronounced in the 55-59 year age group, reaching 10.6 million (8.9-12.3 million). Conclusion: IHD remains a significant global health challenge, with high LDL-C levels being a crucial modifiable risk factor. Age-sex disparities in the burden of IHD are evident, driven by variations in LDL-C metabolism, hormonal changes, and lifestyle factors. Recognizing and addressing these disparities is essential for developing effective prevention and treatment strategies tailored to different populations and age groups. Presentation: 6/2/2024

12620 Developing Hospital Protocols For Managing Patients With Hypertriglyceridemia-induced Acute Pancreatitis In Diabetic Ketoacidosis Hospitalizations

Abstract Disclosure: U. Agbedia-ejughemre: None. Methods: We queried the combined 2017-2020 nationwide inpatient sample database for all adult hospitalizations for DKA with and without HTG-AP using the ICD-10 revision codes. Baseline characteristics were compared between DKA hospitalizations with and without HTG-AP using Pearson’s χ2 tests and Student’s t-test for categorical and continuous variables. Study endpoints were the incidence, predictors, and outcomes of HTG-AP, including mortality, hospitalization duration, mean hospital costs, and acute in-hospital complications (sepsis, ARDS, and acute renal failure). Predictors of HTG-AP were assessed using stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis. Illness severity, baseline risk of mortality, and comorbidity burden were adjusted using APR-DRG metrics and CCI. Prolonged hospitalization was defined as the length of hospital stay in the top decile of hospital stay for all hospitalizations in the study. Results: We analyzed 630,435 hospitalizations for DKA. The study cohort was 51.4% male, 57.6% white Americans and 26.1% Blacks, with a mean age of 40 (SD, 16.2) years. Incidence of HTG-AP was 2.1% (13,445). Hospitalizations with HTG-AP were older (mean age: 44 vs. 40 years; P&amp;lt;0.001) and had greater comorbidity (CCI score of 2: 38.7 vs. 33.8; P&amp;lt;0.001) compared with DKA hospitalizations without HTG-AP. While DKA hospitalizations showed an uptrend, increasing from 105,769 to 199,429 hospitalizations (Average annual percent change [AAPC]: 27.04%; P=0.029), the incidence of HTG-AP showed a downtrend from 2650 (2.5%) to 4085 (2.0%) (P=0.006). Predictors of HTG-AP included Hispanic (aOR: 2.45; 95% CI: 1.95-3.07; P&amp;lt;0.001) or Asian race (aOR: 2.48; 95% CI: 1.37-4.48; P=0.003), private insurance (aOR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.10-2.25; P=0.013), self-pay (aOR: 2.2; 95% CI: 1.49-3.27; P&amp;lt;0.001), APR-DRG moderate risk of mortality (aOR: 1.52; 1.21-1.92; P&amp;lt;0.001), APR-DRG major loss of function (aOR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.31-1.69; P&amp;lt;0.001), dyslipidemia (aOR: 1.87; 95% CI: 1.47-2.38; P&amp;lt;0.001), hypertension (aOR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.13-1.72; P=0.002), obesity (aOR: 3.09; 95% CI: 2.42-3.96; P&amp;lt;0.001), obstructive sleep apnea (aOR: 2.05; 95% CI: 1.35-3.10; P=0.001), chronic liver disease (aOR: 9.44; 95% CI: 6.61-13.48; P&amp;lt;0.001), old MI (aOR: 2.11; 95% CI: 1.02-4.38; P=0.045), and COPD (aOR: 2.31; 95% CI: 1.47-3.64; P&amp;lt;0.001). DKA hospitalizations with HTG-AP were correlated with higher risk of septicemia (aOR: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.05-1.69; P=0.029), ARDS (aOR: 1.24; 95% CI; 1.04-2.07; P=0.004), and resource use, including prolonged hospitalization (26.3% vs. 11.1%; P&amp;lt;0.001), and higher mean hospital costs ($57,773 vs. $32,692; P&amp;lt;0.001). Conclusion: HTG-AP was linked to worse outcomes, excluding mortality, in hospital admissions for DKA. There is a need for enhanced diagnostic guidelines and protocols targeting this subgroup of patients could improve outcomes. Presentation: 6/2/2024

The burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to dietary risks in China: Insights from the global burden of disease study 2021

ObjectivesThis study aims to comprehensively assess how dietary risk factors have influenced the prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) in China from 1990 to 2021. The study seeks to provide robust data and scientific evidence essential for formulating effective preventive and control strategies to combat T2DM in China. Study designThis cross-sectional study conducted secondary analyses using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) to assess the burden of T2DM in China attributable to dietary risks. MethodsThe study analyzed age-adjusted metrics related to T2DM, including death counts, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and Age-Standardized Rates (ASRs), using GBD 2021 data, stratified by age and sex. Additionally, Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) were employed to track trends over time. ResultsIn 2021, the results show that 21.43 % of T2DM-related deaths and 23.51 % of DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors, notably a diet low in whole grains and high in red and processed meats. Over the period from 1990 to 2021, there has been an increasing trend in the EAPCs of death rates and DALYs associated with dietary risks in China, suggesting a substantial impact of dietary factors on the burden of T2DM in the country. ConclusionThis study highlights the urgent need for targeted public health interventions to promote dietary changes and reduce the burden of T2DM in China.

Disentangling seasonal and annual precipitation signals in the tropics over the Holocene: Insights from δD, alkanes and GDGTs

Rainfall seasonality in the tropics has a substantial impact on both ecosystems and human livelihoods. Yet, reconstructions of past rainfall variability have so far generally been unable to differentiate between annual and seasonal precipitation changes. Past variations in seasonality are therefore largely unknown. Here, we disentangle hydrogen isotopic (δD) signals from terrestrial leaf waxes and algae in an 8000-year peat core from Sumatra, which reflect annual versus wet season rainfall signals, respectively. We validate these results using lipid biomarkers by reconstructing vegetation dynamics via n-alkane distributions and peatland hydrological conditions using glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), as well as biomass burning using levoglucosan concentrations in the core. Finally, we compare our proxy results to a transient climate model simulation (MPI-ESM1.2) to identify the mechanism for seasonality changes. We find that algal δD indicates stronger Indonesian-Australian Summer Monsoon (IASM) precipitation in the Mid-Holocene, between 8 and 4.2 cal ka BP. A period of alternating flooding, droughts and wildfires is reconstructed between 6 and 4.2 cal ka BP, implicating very strong monsoonal precipitation and drying out and burning during a longer and intensified dry season. We attribute this strong rainfall seasonality in the Mid-Holocene mainly to orbitally forced insolation seasonality and a strengthened IASM, consistent with the modeling results. In terms of annual rainfall, terrestrial plant δD, vegetation composition and GDGTs all indicate wetter conditions peaking between 3 and 4.5 cal ka BP, preceded by drier conditions, followed by drastic and rapid drying in the late Holocene from around 2.8 cal ka BP. Our multiproxy annual precipitation reconstruction thereby indicates the wettest overall conditions approximately 1500–2000 years later than a nearby speleothem δ18O record, which instead follows the seasonally biased algal δD in our record. We, therefore, hypothesize that speleothem reconstructions over the Holocene in parts of the tropics with low but significant seasonality may carry a stronger seasonal component than previously suggested. The data presented here contribute with new insights on how isotopic rainfall proxies in the tropics can be interpreted. Our findings resolve the seasonal versus annual components of Holocene rainfall variability in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool region, highlighting the importance of considering seasonality in rainfall reconstructions.

Annual change in eGFR in renal hypouricemia: a retrospective pilot study.

Extremely low uric acid (UA) levels or increased urinary UA (Uua) excretion might be risk factors for kidney disease in renal hypouricemia (RHU) patients, but their relationship with kidney dysfunction is unclear. This study investigated time-dependent changes in eGFR in RHU patients. This multicenter retrospective study assessed UA metabolism and changes in eGFR (median 5.5years) in 13 RHU patients. We then compared eGFR change in 7 of 13 RHU patients whose eGFR could be measured for 4years with those in normouricemic group (n = 31). In addition, 7 RHU patients were divided into two groups based on URAT1 gene mutations: homozygote and compound heterozygote mutations (Homo/Com group, n = 3), and wild-type and heterogeneous mutations (WT/Hetero group, n = 4). In 13 RHU patients, the median and mean serum UA (SUA) were 0.8 (0.4-2.5) and 1.1 ± 0.7mg/dL. The median and mean Uua were 44.3 (12.7-141.1) and 49.7 ± 36.2mg/dL. The median and mean urinary urate clearance (Cua/Ccr) were 46.8 (11.3-73.6) and 43.3 ± 19.7%. Over 4years, eGFR did not change in the RHU group but declined in the normouricemic group. Annual mean eGFR decline and change rate in the RHU group were the same as those in the normouricemic group (- 1.09 ± 1.11 vs. - 1.09 ± 1.92mL/min/1.73 m2/year, p = 0.996) (- 1.74 ± 1.96 vs. - 1.36 ± 2.10%, p = 0.664). And no significant difference was found in eGFR decline or change rate between Homo/Com and WT/Hetero groups (- 0.33 ± 1.03 vs. - 1.67 ± 0.85mL/min/1.73 m2/year, p = 0.116) (- 0.61 ± 1.62 vs. - 2.59 ± 1.91%, p = 0.210). RHU from URAT1 genetic mutation may not show eGFR decline over 4 consecutive years.