Annual Change Research Articles

Temporal trends in the visual impairment burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose levels: a population-based study.

Elevated fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels have been associated with visual impairment. Recognising global patterns of high FPG level exposure can facilitate the prevention and treatment of related visual impairment. We aimed to assessthe trendsof the visual impairmentburden attributable to high FPG levels globally, regionally, nationally, and by income level. We obtained data on the visual impairment burden attributable to high FPG levels from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We evaluated the trends of related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019 through joinpoint regression analysis and calculated the annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC). Countries/territories were categorised into high-, upper-middle-, lower-middle-, and low-income groups based on the 2019 World Bank criteria. The age-standardised rate of DALYs due to visual impairment attributable to high FPG levels significantly increased globally, from 6.75 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 1.55-15.79) in 1990 to 8.44 per 100,000 population (95% UI, 2.00-19.63) in 2019 (AAPC, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.89; p < 0.001). The largest increases were observed in high-income (AAPC, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.60-0.85) and lower-middle-income countries/territories (AAPC, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.62-0.73). In 2019, lower-middle-income countries/territories had the highest age-standardised DALY rate (18.94 per 100,000 population; 95% UI, 4.39-43.98), whereas high-income countries/territories had the lowest (2.97 per 100,000 population; 95% UI, 0.75-6.74). The visual impairment burden associated with elevated FPG levels has increased significantly, necessitating enhanced public health prevention measures, clinical management, and treatment to mitigate adverse outcomes.

Global, regional, and national burdens of leukemia from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis of the global burden of disease in 2019 based on the APC model.

Leukemia is the tenth most common cause of cancer death worldwide and one of the most important causes of disability. To understand the current status and changing trends of the disease burden of leukemia at the global, regional, and national levels, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of leukemia prevention and treatment strategies. Based on open data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), R software was used to calculate estimated annual percentage changes to estimate trends in the age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate due to leukemia and its major subtypes from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, globally, the number of incidences and DALYs of leukemia were 643.6 × 103 (587.0 × 103, 699.7 × 103) and 11,657.5 × 103 (10529.1 × 103, 12700.7 × 103), respectively. The ASIR (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = -0.37, 95%UI -0.46 to -0.28) and the age-standardized DALY rate (EAPC = -1.72, 95%UI -1.80 to -1.65) of leukemia showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019. The APC model analysis showed that the age effect of leukemia risk was a "U"-shaped distribution of relative risk (RR) with increasing age from 1990 to 2019, globally. The time effect was an increase in incidence rate with increasing years but a decrease in DALY rate with increasing years. The cohort effects of both incidence and DALY rates tended to increase and then decrease with the development of the birth cohort. In 1990 and 2019, smoking, high body-mass index, occupational exposure to benzene, and occupational exposure to formaldehyde were risk factors for DALY in leukemia, especially in areas with high SDI. From 1990 to 2019, the disease burden of leukemia showed a decreasing trend, but it is worth noting that its overall severity is still very high. The disease burden of leukemia varies greatly from region to region, and exclusive strategies for the prevention and treatment of leukemia should be developed according to the economic and cultural development of each region.

Suicide in China: The Trends and Differentials From 2002 to 2021

ABSTRACTObjectiveThe objective of this study was to provide an updated analysis of suicide characteristics in China from 2002 to 2021, with the aim of informing the development of evidence‐based suicide prevention strategies.MethodsThe Ministry of Health‐Vital Registration System (MOH‐VR) provided the data on suicide mortality, which enabled us to examine the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in suicide rates using a Poisson regression model.ResultsNotably, there has been a significant decline in suicide rates observed in both urban and rural areas. In the early years of the study period, higher suicide rates were observed among females compared to males; however, a shift occurred after 2005, with male suicide rates surpassing those of females. Except for 2005, rural areas consistently exhibited higher suicide rates than urban areas. Furthermore, suicide rates exhibited an increasing trend with age, irrespective of gender or region.ConclusionThese findings highlight a decreasing trend in suicide rates in China over the past two decades, although gender and regional disparities persist. Going forward, sustained efforts in suicide prevention, with a specific focus on mental health, are warranted.

Heart Failure Mortality in Chronic Kidney Disease: The Fatal Crossover

Real-world mortality data regarding heart failure in patients with comorbid chronic kidney disease remains limited, especially following the advent of advanced heart failure therapies. Using the CDC WONDER database, we included patients ≥ 25 years old who died primarily from heart failure (2011-2020) with comorbid chronic kidney disease. We calculated age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100,000 individuals. We determined the trends over time by estimating the annual percent change (APC) using the Joinpoint regression program. There were 82,454 heart failure deaths with comorbid chronic kidney disease. The AAMR increased from 2.34 (95% CI, 2.28- 2.41) in 2011 to 4.79 (95% CI, 4.71- 4.88) in 2020. During the study period, Heart failure deaths among patients with comorbid chronic kidney disease increased by 149.0% compared to 59.9% in those without. Men had higher AAMR than women (3.92 [95% CI, 3.88- 3.96] vs. 2.96 [95% CI, 2.93- 2.99]). African American patients had the highest AAMR (5.85 [95% CI, 5.75- 5.96]). The Midwest region had the highest AAMR (3.83 [95% CI, 3.78- 3.89]). The AAMR was higher in the rural areas than in the urban regions (3.77 [95% CI, 3.71- 3.83] vs. 3.23 [95% CI, 3.20- 3.25]). Most patients died in hospices or nursing homes (29,000, 35.2%). Our study showed a significant increase in heart failure AAMR in patients with comorbid chronic kidney disease in recent eras. Further effort is needed to optimize cardioprotective agents for this population and to address demographic discrepancies at the policy level.

Trends in cancer and heart failure related mortality in adult US population: A CDC WONDER database analysis from 1999 to 2020

BackgroundWith the advent of novel chemotherapy, survival of patients with cancer has improved. However, people with cancer have an increased risk of heart failure (HF). Conversely, HF-related mortality may undermine survival among people with cancer. We aim to analyze the trends of mortality in people with HF and cancer in the adult US population. MethodsWe conducted an examination of death certificates sourced from the CDC WONDER (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) database, from the years 1999 to 2020. Mortality in adults with HF and cancer was assessed. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 persons and annual percent change were reported. ResultsBetween 1999 and 2020, 621,783 deaths occurred from HF in people with cancer. The AAMR declined from 16.4 in 1999 to 11.9 in 2017, after which an increase to 14.5 was observed in 2020. Men had consistently higher overall AAMR as compared to women (men = 18.1 vs women = 9.9). Similar AAMR was observed between non-Hispanic (NH) Blacks/African Americans (13.9) and NH Whites (13.3), with lower in American Indian/Alaska Native (9.6) and Hispanics (7.4). Asian/Pacific Islanders reported the lowest AAMR (5.7). The Midwestern region reported the highest AAMR (14.8). We observed the highest AAMR amongst the older population (61.4). ConclusionThe mortality rates of people with HF and cancer are increasing in the adult U.S. population. This underscores the need for increased screening, aggressive management, and subsequent surveillance of people at risk or with manifested HF in people with cancer.

All-cause mortality due to conduction abnormalities in the United States: Sex, racial, and geographic variations from 1999 to 2022

BackgroundMortality related to conduction abnormalities in the United States (US) population is not well documented. Population-based stratification approaches can improve public health policies and targeted strategies. ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to evaluate all-cause mortality related to conduction abnormalities in the US population MethodsThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database was used to calculate the age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) per 100,000 individuals older than 35 years related to conduction abnormalities between 1999 and 2022. ResultsA total of 207,861 deaths were attributed to conduction abnormalities throughout the study period ,with 56,186 of these deaths occurring between 2020 and 2022. All-cause mortality related to conduction abnormalities has increased during the past decade with an exponential growth in 2020–2021 (coronavirus disease 2019 era; annual percent change of 16.6% per year). Although the mortality rates decreased in 2022, they remained elevated compared to 2019–2020. Throughout the past 2 decades, males consistently exhibited higher mortality rates than females, with the rate in 2022 being 1.5 times higher (AAMR 11.4 vs 7.0 per 100,000). Non-Hispanic Black patients experienced a significantly higher mortality rate compared to non-Hispanic White individuals in the study period (AAMR 13.7 vs 8.6 per 100,000 in 2022). In the past 2 decades, mortality has been persistently higher in rural and small- to medium-sized metropolitan areas than in large metropolitan urban areas. ConclusionMortality rates related to conduction abnormalities have increased over the past decade, and persistent disparities have been observed. These data suggest that continued innovative outreach approaches and engagement with underrepresented populations remain essential.

Changes in the incidence of melanoma in Australia, 2006-2021, by age group and ancestry: a modelling study.

To estimate the incidence of melanoma in Australia among people with ancestries associated with low, moderate, or high risk of melanoma, by sex and 5-year age group; to establish whether age-specific incidence rates by ancestry risk group have changed over time. Modelling study; United States (SEER database) melanoma incidence rates for representative ancestral populations and Australian census data (2006, 2011, 2016, 2021) used to estimate Australian melanoma incidence rates by ancestry-based risk. Australia, 2006-2021. Age-specific invasive melanoma incidence rates, and average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-specific melanoma rates, by ancestry-based risk group, sex, and 5-year age group. The proportion of people in Australia who reported high risk (European) ancestry declined from 85.3% in 2006 to 71.1% in 2021. The estimated age-standardised melanoma incidence rate was higher for people with high risk ancestry (2021: males, 82.2 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 80.5-83.8] cases per 100 000 population; females, 58.5 [95% CI, 57.0-59.9] cases per 100 000 population) than for all Australians (males, 67.8 [95% CI, 66.5-69.2] cases per 100 000 population; females, 45.4 [95% CI, 44.3-46.5] cases per 100 000 population). AAPCs were consistently positive for Australians aged 50 years or older, both overall and for people with high risk ancestry, but were statistically significant only for some age groups beyond 65 years. AAPCs were negative for people aged 34 years or younger, but were generally not statistically significant. Melanoma incidence has declined in some younger age groups in Australia, including among people with high risk ancestry. Social and behavioural changes over the same period that lead to lower levels of ultraviolet radiation exposure probably contributed to these changes.

Impact of Integrated Agricultural Productivity Project on the Smallholder Beneficiaries in Mithapukur Upazila, Rangpur District of Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, plenty of development projects are assumed, though success of very few is evaluated. This study was aimed to evaluate the impact of Integrated Agricultural Productivity Project (IAPP) on the smallholder beneficiaries. The proportionate random sampling technique was used to select 90 smallholder beneficiaries from seven project villages implemented. Data were collected during 2018 to 2019 using a predesigned interview schedule. The perceived advantages of the project and the beneficiaries' annual income change were utilized to assess the impact of the project on the smallholder beneficiaries. Majority (58.8%) of the smallholder project farmers were under young to middle age category, with literacy belonged to moderate family size, small farm category, average annual income of BDT 134989 and 227633 during before and after the project intervention, respectively. They showed moderate contact with the extension source (95.6%) and moderate organizational participation (64.5%). Benefits derived from different components of the project were caused change in the usages of different agricultural improved technologies by the beneficiaries. The technologies implemented were improved fish, crop, livestock and water technology. All technologies had statistically significant contributions to the beneficiaries. The changes were significant for all the cases, viz. improved fish technology (t=13.65), improved crop technology (t=24.36), improved livestock technology (t = 20.43) and improved water technology (t= 22.29). There was also significant change in annual income comparing before and after the project intervention. Major problems faced during the intervention of the project were poor coordination of activities followed by training, poor quality deliverables and inadequate supply of project incentives. It is recommended that the authority needs to consider necessary measures to sustain the tempo and resolve the problems experienced by the beneficiaries in the future interventions.

Time trends in the clinical management of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2: A Danish register-based study.

Active surveillance for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN2) has been implemented recently in many countries, including the Nordic countries. In Denmark, the only eligibility criterion for active surveillance for CIN2 is that the woman should be of reproductive age. With this study, we aimed to evaluate clinical and socioeconomic characteristics in women with CIN2 managed by active surveillance or large loop excision of the transformation zone (LLETZ) and to evaluate temporal changes in the clinical management of CIN2. We conducted a Danish nationwide study using data from healthcare registries. All female residents aged 18-40 years, diagnosed with incident CIN2 from January 1, 1998, to February 29, 2020, were included. We collected data on age, index cytology result, year of CIN2 diagnosis, region of residence, civil status, HPV vaccination status, and socioeconomic position indicators. The variables were tabulated overall and by management group (active surveillance vs. LLETZ). To evaluate time trends, we used joinpoint regression to calculate the annual percentage change (APC), including 95% confidence intervals (CI). Of the 27 536 women with CIN2 included, 12 500 (45.4%) underwent active surveillance, and 15 036 (54.6%) underwent a LLETZ. Women undergoing active surveillance were younger, more often HPV-vaccinated, and more likely to have a normal/low-grade index cytology result than women undergoing LLETZ. Socioeconomic position indicators did not differ. Over time, the proportion of women undergoing active surveillance increased from 21.7% in 2004 to 73.6% in 2019 (APC 9.7, 95% CI 8.1-11.4). The proportion of women undergoing active surveillance aged <30 declined over time (APC -2.2, 95% CI -2.9 to -1.5). The proportion of women with normal/low-grade index cytology increased slightly to 51.6% in 2019 (APC 0.8, 95% CI 0.4-1.3). The use of active surveillance for CIN2 has increased over the past two decades in Denmark. Observed differences in characteristics between women undergoing active surveillance vs LLETZ are likely related to indications for clinical management.

Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi‐Model Comparison

AbstractA collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would have substantial impacts on global precipitation patterns, especially in the vulnerable tropical monsoon regions. We assess these impacts in experiments that apply the same freshwater hosing to four state‐of‐the‐art climate models with bistable AMOC. As opposed to previous results, we find that the spatial and seasonal patterns of precipitation change are remarkably consistent across models. We focus on the South American Monsoon (SAM), the West African Monsoon (WAM), the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Models consistently suggest substantial disruptions for WAM, ISM, and EASM with shorter wet and longer dry seasons (−29.07%, −18.76%, and −3.78% ensemble mean annual rainfall change, respectively). Models also agree on changes for the SAM, suggesting rainfall increases overall, in contrast to previous studies. These are more pronounced in the southern Amazon (+43.79%), accompanied by decreasing dry‐season length. Consistently across models, our results suggest a robust and major rearranging of all tropical monsoon systems in response to an AMOC collapse.

Temporal Trends of Infant Mortality Secondary to Congenital Heart Disease: National CDC Cohort Analysis (1999-2020).

Infant mortality continues to be a significant problem for patients with congenital heart disease (CHD). Limited data exist on the recent trends of mortality in infants with CHD. The CDC WONDER (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) was queried to identify deaths occurring within the United States with CHD listed as one of the causes of death between 1999 and 2020. Subsequently, trends were calculated using the Joinpoint regression program (version 4.9.1.0; National Cancer Institute). A total of 47,015 deaths occurred in infants due to CHD at the national level from the year 1999 to 2020. The overall proportional infant mortality (compared to all deaths) declined (47.3% to 37.1%, average annual percent change [AAPC]: -1.1 [95% CI -1.6 to -0.6, p < 0.001]). There was a significant decline in proportional mortality in both Black (45.3% to 34.3%, AAPC: -0.5 [-0.8 to -0.2, p = 0.002]) and White patients (55.6% to 48.6%, AAPC: -1.2 [-1.7 to -0.7, p = 0.001]), with a steeper decline among White than Black patients. A statistically significant decline in the proportional infant mortality in both non-Hispanic (43.3% to 33.0%, AAPC: -1.3% [95% CI -1.9 to -0.7, p < 0.001]) and Hispanic (67.6% to 57.7%, AAPC: -0.7 [95% CI -0.9 to -0.4, p < 0.001]) patients was observed, with a steeper decline among non-Hispanic infant population. The proportional infant mortality decreased in males (47.5% to 53.1%, AAPC: -1.4% [-1.9 to -0.9, p < 0.001]) and females (47.1% to 39.6%, AAPC: -0.9 [-1.9 to 0.0, p = 0.05]). A steady decline in for both females and males was noted. Our study showed a significant decrease in CHD-related mortality rate in infants and age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) between 1999 and 2020. However, sex-based, racial/ethnic disparities were noted, with female, Black, and Hispanic patients showing a lesser decline than male, White, and non-Hispanic patients.

Progression of Bone Marrow Lesions and the Development of Knee Osteoarthritis: Osteoarthritis Initiative Data.

Background Bone marrow lesions (BMLs) are a known risk factor for incident knee osteoarthritis (OA), and deep learning (DL) methods can assist in automated segmentation and risk prediction. Purpose To develop and validate a DL model for quantifying tibiofemoral BML volume on MRI scans in knees without radiographic OA and to assess the association between longitudinal BML changes and incident knee OA. Materials and Methods This retrospective study included knee MRI scans from the Osteoarthritis Initiative prospective cohort (February 2004-October 2015). The DL model, developed between August and October 2023, segmented the tibiofemoral joint into 10 subregions and measured BML volume in each subregion. Baseline and 4-year follow-up MRI scans were analyzed. Knees without OA at baseline were categorized into three groups based on 4-year BML volume changes: BML-free, BML regression, and BML progression. The risk of developing radiographic and symptomatic OA over 9 years was compared among these groups. Results Included were 3869 non-OA knees in 2430 participants (mean age, 59.5 years ± 9.0 [SD]; female-to-male ratio, 1.3:1). At 4-year follow-up, 2216 knees remained BML-free, 1106 showed an increase in BML volume, and 547 showed a decrease in BML volume. BML progression was associated with a higher risk of developing radiographic knee OA compared with remaining BML-free (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.0; P < .001) or BML regression (HR = 2.0; P < .001). Knees with BML progression also had a higher risk of developing symptomatic OA compared with BML-free knees (HR = 1.3; P < .001). Larger volume changes in BML progression were associated with a higher risk of developing both radiographic OA (HR = 2.0; P < .001) and symptomatic OA (HR = 1.7; P < .001). In almost all subchondral plates, especially the medial femur and tibia, BML progression was associated with a higher risk of developing both radiographic and symptomatic OA compared with remaining BML-free. Conclusion Knees with BML progression, according to subregion and extent of volume changes, were associated with an increased risk of OA compared with BML-free knees and knees with BML regression, highlighting the potential utility of monitoring BML volume changes in evaluating interventions to prevent OA development. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00080171 © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Said and Sakly in this issue.

Epidemiology of Q Fever in Southeast Europe for a 20-Year Period (2002–2021)

This study aimed to assess epidemiological trends of Q fever in six countries of Southeast Europe by analysing surveillance data for 2002–2021 period. In this descriptive analysis, we collected and analysed data on confirmed human Q fever cases, obtained from the national Public Health Institutes of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. Overall, 2714 Q fever cases were registered during the 20-year period. The crude average annual notification rate was 0.82 (± 2.06) (95% CI: 0.47–1.16) per 100,000 inhabitants, ranged from 0.06 (± 0.04) (95% CI: 0.04–0.08) /100,000 in Greece to 2.78 (± 4.80) (95% CI: 0.53–5.02) /100,000 in the Republic of Srpska (entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina). Significant declining trends of Q fever age standardized rates were registered in Croatia, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Serbia, with an average annual change of -30.15%; -17.13%; -28.33% and − 24.77%, respectively. An unequal spatial distribution was observed. The highest average age-specific notification rate was reported in the 20–59 age group (0.84 (± 0.40) (95% CI: 0.65–1.02) /100,000). Most cases (53.69%) were reported during the spring. Q fever remains a significant public health threat in this part of Europe. The findings of this study revealed the endemic maintenance of this disease in the including countries, with large regional and subnational disparities in notification rates. A downward trend was found in Q fever notification rates across the study countries with the average notification rate higher than in the EU/EEA, during the same period.

Longitudinal Patterns of Ankle-Brachial Index and Their Association With Progression of CKD in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Elevated Body Mass Index

Rationale & ObjectiveAnkle-brachial index (ABI) is used to screen for vascular complications in the setting of diabetes. This study sought to examine the relationship of longitudinal ABI data and chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and elevated body mass index (BMI). Study DesignA post-hoc analysis of the Look AHEAD trial. Setting & ParticipantsThis study included 3,631 participants in the Look AHEAD trial with a baseline glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >60 ml/min/1.73 m2. ExposuresAverage ABI and average annual change in ABI were calculated based on annual ABI measurements during the first 4 years of the study. OutcomeCKD progression, defined as kidney failure requiring maintenance dialysis or the occurrence of eGFR<60 ml/min/1.73 m2 with a drop of ≥30% at a follow-up visit relative to the first eGFR measurement. Analytical ApproachRestricted cubic spline and Cox proportional hazards models were fit to estimate associations and to explore non-linearity. ResultsOver a median follow-up of 10.1 years, 1,051 participants developed CKD progression. There was a reversed J-shaped relationship of CKD progression with average ABI (when ABI <1.17: HR (per SD decrement), 1.23; 95%CI, 1.06-1.42; when ABI ≥ 1.17: HR (per SD increment), 1.10; 95%CI, 1.00-1.22) and average annual change in ABI (when change in ABI <-0.007: HR (per SD decrement), 1.37; 95%CI, 1.12-1.66; when change in ABI ≥-0.007: HR (per SD increment), 1.13; 95%CI, 1.03-1.24). LimitationsObservational study, potential unmeasured confounding. ConclusionsLow and high average ABI, even at clinically normal values, as well as decreasing and increasing average annual ABI, were associated a higher risk of CKD progression in patients with T2D and elevated BMI. Monitoring ABI and its changes over time may facilitate CKD risk stratification in patients with T2D.

Do early midlife work characteristics predict 20-year change in control beliefs?

Previous research showed the importance of control beliefs for many life outcomes. The present study examines associations between subjectively perceived work environment and objectively measured work activities at the beginning of midlife as a central developmental phase in the context of work, with control beliefs across the subsequent 20 years. We analyzed four-wave longitudinal data from N = 374 participants (born 1950-1952; Mage baseline = 44 years, SD = 1; 44% women) from the Interdisciplinary Longitudinal Study of Adult Development and Aging within a structural equation modeling framework. Over 20 years and overall, internal control beliefs were stable, while external control beliefs decreased. Individuals who reported higher task variety and better social integration at work at baseline also reported higher levels of control beliefs for positive life outcomes. In addition, higher social integration at work at baseline was related to lower levels of external control beliefs. Work characteristics at baseline were not associated with individual differences in change in control beliefs across the 20-year observational interval. In summary, our findings suggest that work experiences at the prime of job-related development around the midst of the fifth decade of life do not play a major role in subsequent control beliefs development across 20 years. However, investigations measuring control beliefs as well as work characteristics continuously over a long period of time are necessary to shed light on reciprocal influences between work and personality. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

ASO Author Reflections: Impact of 1-Year Changes in Skeletal Muscle Quality on Prognosis in Postoperative Patients with Early Gastric Cancer.

ASO Author Reflections: Impact of 1-Year Changes in Skeletal Muscle Quality on Prognosis in Postoperative Patients with Early Gastric Cancer.

Epidemiology, survival and new treatment modalities for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is a rare biliary tract cancer with increasing incidence and poor survival rates. This study aims to evaluate the incidence and survival trends of iCCA patients over 20 years using a national cancer database, and assess the temporal association between survival and landmark clinical trials. Data was extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Age-adjusted incidence rates (AAIRs) were calculated from 2000 to 2020. Overall survival was analyzed based on diagnosis time and disease stage. Subgroup analysis was performed for patients diagnosed between 2015 and 2020. Landmark clinical trials were reviewed to determine temporal changes in survival. In this analysis of 28,918 iCCA patients, the AAIR increased from 0.49 per 100,000 in 2000 to 1.38 in 2020 [annual percent change (APC) 6.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 6.32 to 7.56], with a notable decline from 2019 to 2020. Incidence rates overall displayed an uptrend course across subgroups divided by sex, race, age, and disease stage. The age-adjusted median overall survival (mOS) improved from 5.28 months in 2000 to 9.3 months in 2013, then stabilized between 8.0-9.0 months after 2013. Using 2010 as a cutoff, when the ABC-02 trial was published, the decade-based mOS increased from 6.55 months in 2000-2010 to 9.06 months in 2010-2020. During 2015-2020, the overall mOS was 8.8 months, with mOS of 24.3, 12.1, and 5.4 months for local, regional, and distant stages, respectively. The study indicates a steady rise in iCCA incidence since 2000 across all subgroups. Survival rates improved since 2000 but stabilized after 2013, following the ABC-02 trial publication in 2010. The impact of more recent clinical trials on survival rates requires further analysis in the coming years.

Pancreatic cancer mortality trends in the United States: how much have we moved the needle?

Despite advances made in pancreatic cancer treatment, the extent of progress made in pancreatic cancer mortality at the population level remains unclear. Our cross-sectional study sought to measure trends in pancreatic cancer mortality in the United States in the last 2 decades. Patients with pancreatic cancer mortality from 1999 to 2020 were analyzed from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 individuals were measured. We used joinpoint trend analysis to determine average annual percent change (AAPC) in AAMR trends. From 1999 to 2020, pancreatic cancer accounted for 809,197 deaths. Overall, the AAMRs of pancreatic cancer increased from 20.74 per 100,000 individuals in 1999 to 21.60 per 100,000 individuals in 2020. The highest AAMR was recorded in non-Hispanic Black males (30.11 per 100,000 individuals), and the lowest, in non-Hispanic White females (18.51 per 100,000 individuals). Patients aged 75-84 years had the highest AAMR (6.87 per 100,000 individuals) compared to the younger patients. The highest AAMR was observed in the Northeast region (22.07 per 100,000 individuals) and rural regions (21.29 per 100,000 individuals). There was no improvement in pancreatic cancer mortality in the last two decades. These findings emphasize the importance of efforts to increase access to multidisciplinary cancer care with the realization that without it, improvements in treatment standards will not translate to lower cancer mortality at the population level.

Secular trends in the prevalence of schizophrenia among different age, period and cohort groups between 1990 and 2019

BackgroundSchizophrenia remains a major public health challenge, and designing efforts to manage it requires understanding its prevalence over time at different geographic scales and population groups. MethodsDrawing on data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019, annual percentage change of schizophrenia was assessed across different age, period and cohort groups at different geographic scales from 1990 to 2019. We examined associations of prevalence with the sociodemographic index. ResultsGlobal prevalence of schizophrenia in 2019 was 23.60 million (95 % uncertainty interval: 20.23–27.15), with China, India, the USA and Indonesia accounting for 50.72 % of it. Global prevalence increased slightly from 1990 to 2019, with an annual percentage change of 0.03 % (95 % confidence interval 0.01–0.05). Regions with intermediate sociodemographic index accounted for greater proportion of prevalence increasing than regions with high index. Prevalence decreased among those born after 1979 in regions with intermediate sociodemographic index, whereas it consistently improved among all birth cohorts in regions with low index. Regardless of sociodemographic index, prevalence was highest among individuals 30–59 years old than younger or older groups. ConclusionsPrevalence of schizophrenia has shown small increases globally over the last three decades. The burden of disease is heavier in relatively less affluent regions, and it disproportionately affects individuals 30–59 years in all regions. Meanwhile, for regions with lower sociodemographic indices, the recent increasing burden among birth cohorts is more pronounced. These findings may help guide futural design of measures to manage or prevent schizophrenia in communities at higher risk.

Changes in nutritional status, risk factors and food intake in stroke subjects: cohort study analysis of non-communicable disease risk factors

Background: Stroke is a major cause of death and disability worldwide, affecting 15 million people annually. In Indonesia, the prevalence is 10.9%. Major risk factors include high blood pressure, obesity, inactivity, poor diet, and smoking. Objective: This study aims to analyze long-term trends in risk factors, nutritional status, and food intake among stroke patients from 2011-2021, assessing their impact on stroke incidence. Methods: Data from a longitudinal cohort study of 5,329 subjects, including 215 stroke patients, were analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2019 and SAS software. ANOVA was used to assess annual changes in risk factors, nutritional status, and food intake. Survival analysis was conducted with SAS PROC LIFETEST and PROC LIFEREG. Results: The cohort was primarily female (62.8%), aged 60 or older (57.2%), senior high school education (25.6%), civil servants (30.7%), and low income (57.2%). Significant changes were noted in BMI (p=0.037), fasting blood glucose (FBG) (p=0.001), HDL (p=0.049), abdominal circumference, smoking habits, physical activity (p&lt;0.001), protein intake (p=0.026), and intake of energy, fat, carbohydrates, and sodium (p&lt;0.001). Factors significantly associated with stroke included age, FBG, postprandial glucose, smoking (p&lt;0.0001), LDL (p=0.0380), HDL (p=0.0126), physical activity (p=0.0455), energy intake (p=0.0002), fat intake (p=0.0007), and sodium intake (p=0.0012). Conclusions: The study highlights significant changes in nutritional status, glucose levels, HDL cholesterol, physical activity, and smoking habits. These factors, along with age, cholesterol levels, and dietary intake, impact stroke incidence, underscoring the need for comprehensive stroke prevention strategies.