Apparent Annual Survival Research Articles

Survival and Recruitment in a Human-Impacted Population of Ornate Box Turtles, Terrapene ornata, with Recommendations for Conservation and Management

Alteration and loss of habitat is a major factor in the recent declines of many turtle populations. However, there are few studies of turtle populations in areas that are used intensively by humans. We used temporal symmetry modeling and an information-theoretic approach to model selection to estimate survival and recruitment in a population of Ornate Box Turtles, Terrapene ornata, in fragmented, isolated habitat over an eight-year period. Apparent annual survival was high during this period (0.97, SE 5 0.06), as was the seniority probability (0.95 60.04). Recruitment into the adult population (k) was estimated at 1.02 (60.06). Our results suggest a healthy population, but we note several reasons for a cautious management approach. These include a vulnerability of k to the removal of adults, the need for increased recruitment to offset loss of genetic diversity, and the uncertainty of our estimates resulting from the sampling and modeling processes.

EFFECTS OF RADIOTRANSMITTERS ON NORTHERN GOSHAWKS: DO TAILMOUNTS LOWER SURVIVAL OF BREEDING MALES?

We used the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate the effects of radiotransmitters on survival of breeding northern goshawks (Accipiter gentilis). We separately compared apparent annual survival of leg-banded goshawks with (1) tailmount- and (2) backpack-style radiotransmitters (hereafter tailmounts and backpacks) to apparent annual survival of breeding adults with legbands only. The best model without radiotransmitter effects, evaluated with Akaike's Information Criterion (AICc), suggested no gender- or year-specific effects on survival. We then added radiotransmitter attachment type (tailmount or backpack) and mass of radiotransmitter as covariates to the base model to estimate the effect of radiotransmitters. Tailmounts on males significantly reduced apparent annual survival from 0.75 (SE = 0.02, 95% CI: 0.71 to 0.78) without radiotransmitters to 0.29 (SE = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.09 to 0.63) with radiotransmitters. Backpacks had no significant effect on survival of adults (0.79, SE = 0.17, 95% CI: 0.33 to 0.97). The strikingly lower survival of goshawks with tailmounts was surprising because tailmounts weighed less (10 g, 1.5% body mass) than backpacks (16–23 g, max = 3.4% body mass) and likely were carried for shorter periods. Due to the small number of goshawks with tailmounts (n = 14) in this study, our results possibly were due to chance. We therefore recommend additional study of the effects of tailmounts on survival of breeding male northern goshawks.

Transience, dispersal and survival rates in newt patchy populations.

This work aims to illustrating how it is possible to measure different modalities of adult dispersal in two subdivided populations of the alpine newt (Triturus alpestris). Recent developments in capture-mark-recapture methods make it possible to estimate transience rates from individuals captured only once. In the context of subdivided newt populations, transience is assumed to express nomadic behaviour that contribute to breeding dispersal. Skeletochronology and recaptures within each pond system also made it possible to estimate emigration rates and local dispersal. Two subdivided populations of alpine newts were monitored over 4 and 5years, respectively. Whereas population A is suspected to have been established for more than 100years, population B was monitored when colonizing a newly created archipelago of ponds. Transience was detected in each population at similar rates (37% in population A and 35% in the population B). Annual apparent survival rates were estimated as 82% in population A vs. 33% in population B. Similarity of age structures between populations leads us to consider such low survival rates in population B as resulting from emigration. Emigration was thus negligible in population A and was estimated to reach 57·3% in population B. Conversely, high local dispersal (movements within a pond system) was detected in population A, but not in population B. Even though the causation of dispersal in newts (genetic polymorphism vs. phenotypic plasticity) remains unexplored, our study succeeded in identifying several dispersal components that could result from different selective pressures (habitat heterogeneity at different temporal scales). Experimental approaches are needed to investigate the causative bases of these traits.

Effects of fat reserves on annual apparent survival of blackbirds Turdus merula

Summary Fat reserves are stored energy that may help birds survive periods of harsh winter weather. This hypothesis predicts that annual apparent survival is higher for birds with large fat reserves than for birds with few or no fat reserves in winter. Blackbirds (Turdus merula Linnaeus) were ringed in central Italy from 16 November to 20 February during 1990–2001. Fat scores were recorded for each bird. We used these capture–mark–recapture data for 1703 blackbirds to estimate the effect of large fat reserves on annual apparent survival, while controlling for transients, using computer programs surviv and mark. Probability of birds retaining large fat reserves, or retaining few fat reserves, over 2 successive years was also estimated. Birds with large fat reserves did not have higher estimated annual apparent survival than birds with few fat reserves (φ̂large= φ̂few= 0·595, SE = 0·043), inconsistent with our prediction. No effects of age, sex or year were detected on annual apparent survival. Birds with few fat reserves in any given year tended to have few fat reserves the following year (, SE = 0·052). Birds with large fat reserves in any given year were unlikely to have large fat reserves the next year (, SE = 0·080). Large fat reserves may not increase annual survival of blackbirds wintering in central Italy. Winter weather in our study area may be too mild to effect survival. Alternatively, increased predation risk associated with large fat reserves may counteract any benefits of reduced starvation risk.

APPARENT SURVIVAL RATES OF WESTERN SANDPIPER (CALIDRIS MAURI) WINTERING IN NORTHWEST BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

Abstract To estimate annual apparent local survival, we collected capture–resighting data on 256 individually marked male Western Sandpipers (Calidris mauri) wintering at Estero de Punta Banda, Mexico, between 1994–1997. A hierarchical modeling approach was used to address the effect of age class and year on survivorship rates. The best-fit model included a constant apparent survival probability (ϕ = 0.489; 95% CI = 0.410–0.569), but several models fit nearly as well, and averaging among the top five, to account for model uncertainty, suggested that adults had somewhat higher values than juveniles (ϕ = 0.490 ± 0.051 vs. 0.450 ± 0.067). Detection probability was substantially higher for adults than for juveniles (p = 0.741 vs. p = 0.537). Those apparent survival estimates are low compared with those from other studies of Western Sandpipers at breeding and other nonbreeding locations, and substantially lower than the true survivorship rates expected for small sandpipers in general. We interpret these result...

Apparent Survival Rates of Western Sandpiper (Calidris Mauri) Wintering in Northwest Baja California, Mexico

AbstractTo estimate annual apparent local survival, we collected capture–resighting data on 256 individually marked male Western Sandpipers (Calidris mauri) wintering at Estero de Punta Banda, Mexico, between 1994–1997. A hierarchical modeling approach was used to address the effect of age class and year on survivorship rates. The best-fit model included a constant apparent survival probability (ϕ = 0.489; 95% CI = 0.410–0.569), but several models fit nearly as well, and averaging among the top five, to account for model uncertainty, suggested that adults had somewhat higher values than juveniles (ϕ = 0.490 ± 0.051 vs. 0.450 ± 0.067). Detection probability was substantially higher for adults than for juveniles (p = 0.741 vs. p = 0.537). Those apparent survival estimates are low compared with those from other studies of Western Sandpipers at breeding and other nonbreeding locations, and substantially lower than the true survivorship rates expected for small sandpipers in general. We interpret these results as indicating that this site is of below average quality for nonbreeding male Western Sandpipers.

ANNUAL SURVIVAL AND RECRUITMENT IN A RUBY-THROATED HUMMINGBIRD POPULATION, EXCLUDING THE EFFECT OF TRANSIENT INDIVIDUALS

We estimated annual apparent survival, recruitment, and rate of population growth of breeding Ruby-throated Hummingbirds (Archilochus colubris), while controlling for transients, by using 18 years of capture-mark-recapture data collected during 1984–2001 at Hilton Pond Center for Piedmont Natural History near York, South Carolina. Resident males had lower apparent survival (0.30 ± 0.05 SE) than females (0.43 ± 0.04). Estimates of apparent survival did not differ by age. Point estimates suggested that newly banded males were less likely than females to be residents, but standard errors of these estimates overlapped (males: 0.60 ± 0.14 SE; females: 0.67 ± 0.09). Estimated female recruitment was 0.60 ± 0.06 SE, meaning that 60% of adult females present in any given year had entered the population during the previous year. Our estimate for rate of change indicated the population of female hummingbirds was stable during the study period (1.04 ± 0.04 SE). We suggest an annual goal of ≥64 adult females and ≥64 immature females released per banding area to enable rigorous future tests for effects of covariates on population dynamics. Development of a broader cooperating network of hummingbird banders in eastern North America could allow tests for regional or metapopulation dynamics in this species. Sobrevivencia Anual y Reclutamiento en una Población del Picaflor Archilochus colubris Excluyendo el Efecto de Individuos Ocasionales Resumen. Estimamos la sobrevivencia anual aparente, reclutamiento y tasa de crecimiento en una población reproductiva del picaflor Archilochus colubris, controlando por la presencia de individuos ocasionales. Utilizamos datos de 18 años de captura-marcaje-recaptura colectados entre 1984 y 2001 en Hilton Pond Center for Piedmont Natural History en cercanías de York, Carolina del Sur. Los machos residentes presentaron una sobrevivencia aparente menor (0.30 ± 0.05 EE) que las hembras (0.43 ± 0.04). Las estimaciones de la sobreviviencia aparente no difirieron entre edades. Estimaciones puntuales sugirieron que los machos marcados por primera vez tuvieron una menor probabilidad de ser residentes que las hembras, pero los errores estándar de estas estimaciones se sobrepusieron (machos: 0.60 ± 0.14 EE; hembras: 0.67 ± 0.09 EE). Para las hembras el reclutamiento estimado fue 0.60 ± 0.06 EE, lo que significa que el 60% de las hembras adultas presentes en un año determinado entraron a la población durante el año anterior. Nuestra estimación de la tasa de cambio indicó que la población de picaflores hembra fue estable durante el período de estudio (1.04 ± 0.02 EE). Para permitir futuras pruebas rigurosas sobre las covariables asociadas a las dinámicas poblacionales, sugerimos una meta anual de ≥64 hembras adultas y ≥64 hembras inmaduras liberadas por área de anillado. La creación de una amplia red cooperativa de anilladores de picaflores en el este de Norteamérica podría permitir estudiar y entender mejor las dinámicas regionales o metapoblacionales de esta especie.

DEMOGRAPHY AND POPULATION TRENDS OF THE ATLANTIC YELLOW-NOSED ALBATROSS

The Atlantic Yellow-nosed Albatross (Thalassarche chlororhynchos) breeds only at the Tristan da Cunha archipelago and Gough Island in the central South Atlantic Ocean, and is threatened by mortality from longline fisheries operating in the South Atlantic. Demographic data have been collected from two study colonies on Gough Island and Tristan da Cunha for 20 years. Annual variation in the number of breeding birds was strongly correlated between the two islands, and over the whole study period both study populations have trended downward at around 1.2% per year. The number of established breeders on Gough Island has declined more rapidly, and significantly, at an annual rate of 2.3%. Monitoring established breeders may be a sensitive means of detecting population trends. Average breeding success (67–69%) and breeding frequency (66–65%) were very similar on the two islands. On Gough Island immature and adult annual apparent survival averaged 88 ± 3% and 92 ± 1%, respectively, and apparent survival from fledging to age 5 has averaged 31 ± 8%. Apparent adult survival on Tristan da Cunha averaged only 84 ± 2%. Annual survival of Tristan birds was negatively correlated with longline fishing effort in the South Atlantic Ocean. Population modeling predicts annual rates of decrease of 1.5–2.8% on Gough Island and 5.5% on Tristan da Cunha. Comparison with congeners suggests that the observed and predicted decreases are most likely to be caused by low adult and immature survival. The conservation status of Atlantic Yellow-nosed Albatrosses should be changed from Near Threatened to Endangered. Demografía y Tendencias Poblacionales del Albatros Thalassarche chlororhynchos Resumen. El albatros Thalassarche chlororhynchos sólo se reproduce en el archipiélago Tristan da Cunha y en la isla Gough en el Océano Atlántico Sur central, y se encuentra amenazado debido a la mortalidad causada por las pesqueras de espinel que operan en el Atlántico Sur. Se colectaron datos demográficos durante 20 años en dos colonias reproductivas en el archipiélago Tristan da Cunha y en la isla Gough. La variación anual en el número de aves reproductivas se correlacionó fuertemente entre las dos islas, y durante todo el período de estudio ambas poblaciones han presentado tendencias de decrecimiento de aproximadamente un 1.2% por año. El número de reproductores establecidos en la isla Gough ha disminuido significativamente y más rápidamente, a una tasa anual de 2.3%. El monitoreo de los reproductores que se establecen puede ser un medio sensible para detectar tendencias poblacionales. El éxito reproductivo promedio (67–69%) y la frecuencia de cría (66–65%) fueron muy similares en ambas islas. En la isla Gough la sobrevivencia aparente de inmaduros y adultos fue en promedio de 88 ± 3% y 92 ± 1%, respectivamente. La sobrevivencia de volantones a la edad de 5 años fue en promedio de 31 ± 8%. La sobrevivencia aparente de adultos en Tristan de Cunha fue en promedio sólo de 84 ± 2%. La sobrevivencia anual de las aves de Tristan se correlacionó negativamente con el esfuerzo de la pesca de espinel en el Océano Atlántico Sur. Los modelos poblacionales predicen tasas de disminución anuales de un 1.5–2.8% en la isla Gough y de un 5.5% en Tristan da Cunha. Comparaciones con congéneres sugieren que las disminuciones observadas y predichas son muy probablemente causadas por la baja sobreviviencia de adultos e inmaduros. La categoría de conservación del albatros T. chlororhynchos debería ser cambiada de “casi amenazada” a “en peligro.”

SURVIVAL OF FEMALE LESSER SCAUP: EFFECTS OF BODY SIZE, AGE, AND REPRODUCTIVE EFFORT

Abstract In birds, larger females generally have greater breeding propensity, reproductive investment, and success than do smaller females. However, optimal female body size also depends on how natural selection acts during other parts of the life cycle. Larger female Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) produce larger eggs than do smaller females, and ducklings from larger eggs survive better than those hatching from smaller eggs. Accordingly, we examined patterns of apparent annual survival for female scaup and tested whether natural selection on female body size primarily was stabilizing, a frequent assumption in studies of sexually dimorphic species in which males are the larger sex, or was directional, counteracting reproductive advantages of large size. We estimated survival using mark-recapture methods for individually marked females from two study sites in Canada (Erickson, Manitoba; St. Denis, Saskatchewan). Structurally larger (adults) and heavier (ducklings) females had lower survival than did smaller...

Survival probability estimates for immature green turtles Chelonia mydas in the Bahamas

Green turtles Chelonia mydas in the Atlantic undergo a complex series of development- al migrations, moving long distances among foraging grounds. The study of the ecology and demog- raphy of these foraging populations is hampered by a lack of estimates of survival probabilities for immature stages. In addition, for all species of sea turtles, estimates of survival probabilities have repeatedly been identified as the greatest requirement for improving models of population dynamics and plans for the management and conservation of these endangered and threatened species. We use data from long-term capture-mark-recapture studies of 2 sampling populations of immature green turtles in the Bahamas—Union Creek, Great Inagua from 1978 through 2001, and Conception Creek, Conception Island from 1989 through 2001—to generate estimates of annual survival proba- bilities. We employ a joint analysis of live-recapture and dead-recovery data (Burnham model) to generate estimates of true survival and permanent emigration probabilities for the Union Creek sam- pling population. Because fewer dead-recovery data were available for the Conception Creek sam- pling population, we used a Cormack-Jolly-Seber modeling approach to estimate an apparent annual survival probability of 0.680, which confounds mortality and permanent emigration. Our best esti- mate of true annual survival probability for Union Creek green turtles, protected from human- induced mortality, is 0.891. High survival probabilities in immature stages are necessary for species such as sea turtles with long lifespans and late sexual maturity to maintain stable populations. After green turtles emigrated from Union Creek, annual survival probability declined to 0.761 as the tur- tles were no longer protected from human-induced mortality, demonstrating the negative effect of this mortality on the future of green turtle populations in the Caribbean. This study reports the first application of the joint analysis of live-recapture and dead-recovery data to sea turtle populations and demonstrates the advantages of this modeling approach.

APPARENT SURVIVAL OF MALE OVENBIRDS IN FRAGMENTED AND FORESTED BOREAL LANDSCAPES

From 1996 to 1999, apparent annual survival of male Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus) was compared in forest fragments created by forestry (n = 3) and agriculture (n = 14) to plots in continuous boreal forest of central Saskatchewan (n = 3). For 398 male Ovenbirds, Cormack-Jolly-Seber models indicated that apparent annual survival was lower (34%) in small forest fragments (< 15 ha) in the agricultural landscape than in forestry fragments (56%) or continuous forest (62%). Our results suggested that lower nesting and pairing success in small forest fragments caused individuals to permanently disperse in search of new territories, rather than fragmentation increasing mortality. Regardless of the mechanism, increased turnover of adult males altered the age structure of the population in small forest fragments, as more males were first-time breeders in fragments in the agricultural landscape (59%) than in forestry fragments (47%) or continuous forest (45%). Males recruited into fragments in the agricultural landscape were more likely (90%) to be first-time breeders than in forestry fragments (74%) or continuous forest (64%). Our results suggest that adult dispersal differs with the amount and type of fragmentation and may play an important role in the population dynamics of boreal forest songbird populations.

Apparent Survival of Male Ovenbirds in Fragmented and Forested Boreal Landscapes

From 1996 to 1999, apparent annual survival of male Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus) was compared in forest fragments created by forestry (n = 3) and agriculture (n = 14) to plots in continuous boreal forest of central Saskatchewan (n = 3). For 398 male Ovenbirds, Cormack-Jolly-Seber models indicated that apparent annual survival was lower (34%) in small forest fragments (<15 ha) in the agricultural landscape than in forestry fragments (56%) or continuous forest (62%). Our results suggested that lower nesting and pairing success in small forest fragments caused individuals to permanently disperse in search of new territories, rather than fragmentation increasing mortality. Regardless of the mechanism, increased turnover of adult males altered the age structure of the population in small forest fragments, as more males were first-time breeders in fragments in the agricultural landscape (59%) than in forestry fragments (47%) or continuous forest (45%). Males recruited into fragments in the agricultural landscape were more likely (90%) to be first-time breeders than in forestry fragments (74%) or continuous forest (64%). Our results suggest that adult dispersal differs with the amount and type of fragmentation and may play an important role in the population dynamics of boreal forest songbird populations.

Disentangling the sources of variation in the survival of the European dipper

The population growth rate of the European dipper has been shown to decrease with winter temperature and population size. We examine here the demographic mechanism for this effect by analysing how these factors affect the survival rate. Using more than 20 years of capture-mark-recapture data (1974-1997) based on more than 4000 marked individuals, we perform analyses using open capture-mark-recapture models. This allowed us to estimate the annual apparent survival rates (probability of surviving and staying on the study site from one year to the next one) and the recapture probabilities. We partitioned the variance of the apparent survival rates into sampling variance and process variance using random effects models, and investigated which variables best accounted for temporal process variation. Adult males and females had similar apparent survival rates, with an average of 0.52 and a coefficient of variation of 40%. Chick apparent survival was lower, averaging 0.06 with a coefficient of variation of 42%. Eighty percent of the variance in apparent survival rates was explained by winter temperature and population size for adults and 48% by winter temperature for chicks. The process variance outweighed the sampling variance both for chick and adult survival rates, which explained that shrunk estimates obtained under random effects models were close to MLE estimates. A large proportion of the annual variation in the apparent survival rate of chicks appears to be explained by inter-year differences in dispersal rates.

Long-Term Study of Apparent Survival in Pacific Golden-Plovers at a Wintering Ground on Oahu, Hawaiian Islands

AbstractWe monitored the apparent survival of territorial and nonterritorial Pacific Golden-Plovers (Pluvialis fulva) for 20 consecutive nonbreeding seasons at a wintering ground within Bellows Air Force Station (BAFS) on the eastern shore of Oahu, Hawaii. Territorial birds were especially site-faithful from season to season, and each surviving individual reoccupied the same territory held in previous seasons. On average, territorial birds were resighted for about twice as many postbanding seasons (4.2) as nonterritorial birds (1.8). Open-population modeling indicated that apparent survival varied by age and territorial status. Our most parsimonious model estimated apparent annual survival rates in territorial plovers as 0.90 for young birds (age determined from retained juvenal primaries) from their first through their second wintering season, and 0.80 for adults over numerous seasons. For nonterritorial plovers, the corresponding values were 0.82 and 0.67, respectively. Despite lower apparent survival in nonterritorial plovers, it remains uncertain whether nonterritoriality actually results in shorter life spans. Some surviving nonterritorial birds may have gone undetected (detection probability of 0.70) because of permanent emigration from the study area. Given strong site-fidelity of territorial birds and the relative certainty of detecting them (probability = 1.0), we regarded the disappearance of a plover from its territory as an indicator of mortality. From last-recorded sightings, we concluded that territorial birds died with about equal frequency during the nonbreeding and breeding seasons. Because the latter is of much shorter duration, time-relative hazards were greatest while birds were away from the wintering grounds. Winter mortality was caused by accidents (collisions with overhead wires and other obstructions), and probable predation by owls. We estimated mean additional life expectancy among territorial plovers at 5.1 years for first-year birds, and 4.5 years for unknown-age adults. The oldest known-age individual was a male that lived 13 years 10 months; in adults of uncertain ages, one male survived to a minimum age of 18 years 10 months, and two females to at least 17 years 10 months. Pacific Golden-Plovers wintering at BAFS, especially territorial birds, demonstrated relatively high rates of apparent survival combined with adaptability for coexistence with humans in an urban environment.

Demography of the California Spotted Owl in Northeastern California

Abstract We estimated age-specific survival (ϕ), fecundity (b), and the finite rate of population change (λ) of California Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) over a 10-year period (1990–1999). Two hundred nineteen juvenile and 200 subadult or adult owls were banded at 90 sites, with a combined total of 1080 captures. Least-squares mean estimates (± SE) of fecundity (# female fledglings per territorial female) over all years were 0.065 ± 0.066 for subadults (n = 33) and 0.291 ± 0.065 for adults (n = 381). Estimated annual apparent survival probability was 0.333 ± 0.055 for juveniles and 0.827 ± 0.015 for subadults and adults combined. Using these estimates to construct a four-stage projection matrix, the finite rate of population change, λ, was 0.910 ± 0.025. This value of λ suggests an annual rate of decline in the territorial population of 9% per year over the period of study. Elasticity analyses showed λ to be most sensitive to variation in adult female survival. However, the standard devia...

LONG-TERM STUDY OF APPARENT SURVIVAL IN PACIFIC GOLDEN-PLOVERS AT A WINTERING GROUND ON OAHU, HAWAIIAN ISLANDS

Abstract We monitored the apparent survival of territorial and nonterritorial Pacific Golden-Plovers (Pluvialis fulva) for 20 consecutive nonbreeding seasons at a wintering ground within Bellows Air Force Station (BAFS) on the eastern shore of Oahu, Hawaii. Territorial birds were especially site-faithful from season to season, and each surviving individual reoccupied the same territory held in previous seasons. On average, territorial birds were resighted for about twice as many postbanding seasons (4.2) as nonterritorial birds (1.8). Open-population modeling indicated that apparent survival varied by age and territorial status. Our most parsimonious model estimated apparent annual survival rates in territorial plovers as 0.90 for young birds (age determined from retained juvenal primaries) from their first through their second wintering season, and 0.80 for adults over numerous seasons. For nonterritorial plovers, the corresponding values were 0.82 and 0.67, respectively. Despite lower apparent survival ...

Effects of Forest Management on Density, Survival, and Population Growth of Wood Thrushes

Loss and alteration of breeding habitat have been proposed as causes of declines in several Neotropical migrant bird populations. We conducted a 4-year study to determine the effects of winter prescribed burning and forest thinning on breeding wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) populations at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge (PNWR) in Georgia. We estimated density, adult and juvenile survival rates, and apparent aunual survival using transect surveys, radiotelemetry, and mist netting. Burning and thinning did not cause lower densities (P = 0.25); wood thrush density ranged from 0.15 to 1.30 pairs/10 ha. No radiomarked male wood thrushes (n = 68) died during the 4 years, but female weekly survival was 0.981 ± 0.014 (SE) fo lemales (n = 63) and 0.976 ± 0.010 for juveniles (n = 38). Apparent annual adult survival was 0.579 (SE = 0.173) Thinning and prescribed burning did not reduce adult or juvenile survival during the breeding season or apparent annual adult survival. Annual population growth (λ) at PNWR was 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.32-1.63), and the considerable uncertainty in this prediction underscores the need for long-term monitoring to effectively manage Neotropical migrants, Population growth increased on experimental compartments after the burn and thin (95% CI before = 0.91-0.97, after = 0.98-1.05), while control compartment λ declined (before = 0.98-1.05, after = 0.87-0.92). We found no evidence that the current management regime at PNWB, designed to improve red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) habitat, negatively affected wood thrushes.