Annual Aerial Surveys Research Articles

Recovery of the Chesapeake Bay Bald Eagle Nesting Population

Abstract We conducted annual aerial surveys throughout the tidal reach of the Chesapeake Bay, USA, between 1977 and 2001 to estimate population size and reproductive performance for bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus). The population increased exponentially from 73 to 601 pairs with an average doubling time of 8.2 years. Annual population increase was highly variable and exhibited no indication of any systematic decline. A total of 7,590 chicks were produced from 5,685 breeding attempts during this period. The population has exhibited tremendous forward momentum such that >50% of young produced over the 25‐year period were produced in the last 6 years. Rapid population growth may reflect the combined benefits of eliminating persistent biocides and active territory management. Reproductive rate along with associated success rate and average brood size increased throughout the study period. Average reproductive rate (chicks/breeding attempt) increased from 0.82 during the first 5 years of the survey to 1.50 during the last 5 years. Average success rate increased from 54.4% to >80.0% during the same time periods. The overall population will likely reach saturation within the next decade. The availability of undeveloped waterfront property has become the dominant limiting factor for bald eagles in the Chesapeake Bay. Maintaining the eagle population in the face of a rapidly expanding human population will continue to be the greatest challenge faced by wildlife biologists.

Population Dynamics and Harvest Potential of Mountain Goat Herds in Alberta

The understanding of population dynamics is a central issue for managing large mammals. Modeling has allowed population ecologists to increase their knowledge about complex systems and better predict population responses to diverse perturbations. Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) appear sensitive to harvest, but the relative influence of survival and reproductive rates on their population dynamics are not well understood. Using longitudinal data on age- and sex-specific survival and reproduction from a marked mountain goat population in Alberta, Canada, we built a stage-class matrix model to predict short-term numerical changes for 11 other goat populations in Alberta for which the only data available were from annual aerial surveys. Overall, the model provided an acceptable fit to changes in population size for 8 of 12 populations. Temporal trends in population size were underestimated in 2 populations and overestimated in another 2, suggesting that these populations had different vital rates than those of the intensively studied population. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the survival of mature females (aged 5 yr and older) had the greatest elasticity for population growth. Modeled management scenarios indicated that nonselective yearly harvest rates above 1% of goats aged 2 years and older were not sustainable over the short-term for some populations. The simulations also revealed that small (n = 25) and medium-size (n = 50) populations, which correspond to most goat populations in Alberta, had high extinction risk (18 to 82% over 40 years), even in the absence of harvest. Our results confirm that mountain goat populations are very sensitive to harvest, indicate that wildlife managers should prevent female harvest, and suggest that although a high demand for goat hunting exists in Alberta, most populations in this province—and probably small populations elsewhere—cannot withstand exploitation.

Evaluation of Aerial Survey Methods for Dall's Sheep

Abstract Most Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) population-monitoring efforts use intensive aerial surveys with no attempt to estimate variance or adjust for potential sightability bias. We used radiocollared sheep to assess factors that could affect sightability of Dall's sheep in standard fixed-wing and helicopter surveys and to evaluate feasibility of methods that might account for sightability bias. Work was conducted in conjunction with annual aerial surveys of Dall's sheep in the western Baird Mountains, Alaska, USA, in 2000–2003. Overall sightability was relatively high compared with other aerial wildlife surveys, with 88% of the available, marked sheep detected in our fixed-wing surveys. Total counts from helicopter surveys were not consistently larger than counts from fixed-wing surveys of the same units, and detection probabilities did not differ for the 2 aircraft types. Our results suggest that total counts from helicopter surveys cannot be used to obtain reliable estimates of detection probabil...

Population dynamics of harbour seals Phoca vitulina in England: monitoring growth and catastrophic declines

Summary Harbour seals Phoca vitulina in eastern England were heavily exploited in the 1960s and 1970s, and affected by phocine distemper virus (PDV) epidemics in 1988 and 2002. Information on their historical and current status is required for their management. To maximize the effectiveness of limited population survey effort we need to both estimate and minimize error. Presented here are data from annual aerial surveys of the population. Sporadic, synoptic surveys in The Wash, England, were used with more frequent counts of subpopulations in the Moray Firth, Scotland, to determine optimum timing of surveys. We developed models that explicitly account for variability in both observation and population growth processes to show that the proportion of animals observed is much more variable than the annual growth rates. The latter can therefore be treated as constant within each period, and estimated along with the epidemic mortalities during the study and the precision of the survey results. The Wash population increased at around 3·1% per annum (pa) [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·1–4·1] between 1973 and 1988. It fell by approximately 52% (95% CI 44–59) as a result of the 1988 PDV epidemic, and subsequently increased at 5·7% pa (95% CI 4·8–6·7). These growth rates were below those reported for European mainland populations, but showed no indication of density‐dependent effects. The recurrence of PDV in 2002 caused approximately 22% mortality (95% CI 9–33), significantly less than the 1988 epidemic and less than half that in European mainland populations in 2002. Synthesis and applications. Combining sparse, systematic survey data with sporadic counts produced robust estimates of growth rates and epidemic mortality. The results indicate the value of even limited and sporadic survey effort for monitoring populations. The study has highlighted significant differences in both population dynamics and the severity of disease events between English and European harbour seal populations.

POPULATION SIZE AND TREND OF YELLOW-BILLED LOONS IN NORTHERN ALASKA

Abstract The Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii) is of conservation concern due to its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding and wintering habitat. Within the U.S., this species breeds almost entirely within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, nearly all of which is open, or proposed to be opened, for oil development. Rigorous estimates of Yellow-billed Loon population size and trend are lacking but essential for informed conservation. We used two annual aerial waterfowl surveys, conducted 1986–2003 and 1992–2003, to estimate population size and trend on northern Alaskan breeding grounds. In estimating population trend, we used mixed-effects regression models to reduce bias and sampling error associated with improvement in observer skill and annual effects of spring phenology. The estimated population trend on Alaskan breeding grounds since 1986 was near 0 with an estimated annual change of−0.9% (95% CI of−3.6% to +1.8%). The estima...

Assessment of Hydraulic Restoration of San Pablo Marsh, California

Inter-tidal marshes are dynamic diverse ecosystems at the transition zone between terrestrial and ocean environments. Geomorphologically, inter-tidal salt marshes are vegetated land-forms at elevations slightly greater than mean tidal levels that have distributed channels formed under ebb (drainage) tidal flows that widen and deepen in the seaward direction. The drainage channels enable tidal flows to circulate sediments and nutrients through the marsh system during normal tidal events, while depositing sediments during storm or seismic events. This dynamic system encourages considerable biodiversity while simultaneously providing water quality enhancement features that service marsh terrestrial life and marine life in the estuary. Reservoir creation limiting sediment transport, anticipated large increases in sea levels as well as agricultural and urban development have resulted in significant loss of inter-tidal marshes and subsequent adverse impacts on waterfowl, infauna and fisheries. The complex and continuously changing marsh channel hydraulics and sedimentary processes have severely constrained quantitative modeling of these marsh systems such that restoration/creation efforts remain something of an empirical science and further assessments are needed. The purpose of this paper is to outline current understanding of salt marsh hydrodynamics, sediment accretion processes and subsequent response of marsh vegetation to set the stage for assessment of a marsh restoration effort along San Pablo Bay near San Francisco, California. Several kilometers of drainage channels were constructed in a 624 ha disturbed salt marsh to restore tidal circulation and vegetation so as to enhance habitat for threatened species (e.g. clapper rail, harvest mouse, delta smelt and potentially anadromous fish species). Two distinct drainage channel systems ('east' and 'west') were installed having similar channel dimensions common to salt marshes in the region, but having design bankfull tidal prism volumes differing by a factor of two. Following channel excavation, main channel tidal flows and sediment loads as well as marsh sediment accretion rates were monitored to assess the relative success of the excavation in restoring tidal circulation and vegetation (Salicornia spp.) to the marsh. Annual aerial surveys corroborated with ground-truthing indicated that marsh vegetation rapidly expanded, from 40 to 85% coverage several years following excavation. The 'east' channel intake was nearly completely silted in within three years. However, channel surveys and flow measurements indicated that the 'east' channel system tidal prism was only about 1200 m3, more than an order of magnitude less than that of the stable 'west' channel system. Marsh sediment accretion rates were on the order of 7-8 mm yr(-1), a rate common to the Pacific coast region that exceeds estimated sea level rise rates of approximately 2 mm yr(-1). East channel network siltation resulted in storm and spring tidal flood ponding such that marsh vegetation coverage decreased to 51% of the marsh area and related habitat expansion decreased. These results are considered in terms of the primary inter-tidal marsh factors affecting possible restoration/creation strategies.

Destruction of Wetlands and Waterbird Populations by Dams and Irrigation on the Murrumbidgee River in Arid Australia

The Lowbidgee floodplain is the Murrumbidgee River's major wetland in southeastern Australia. From more than 300,000 ha in the early 1900s, at least 76.5% was destroyed (58%) or degraded (18%) by dams (26 major storages), subsequent diversions and floodplain development. Diversions of about 2,144,000 ML year(-1) from the Murrumbidgee River come from a natural median flow of about 3,380,000 ML year(-1) providing water for Australia's capital, hydroelectricity, and 273,000 ha of irrigation. Diversions have reduced the amount of water reaching the Lowbidgee floodplain by at least 60%, from 1888 to 1998. About 97,000 ha of Lowbidgee wetland was destroyed by development of the floodplain for an irrigation area (1975-1998), including building of 394 km of channels and 2,145 km of levee banks. Over 19 years (1983-2001), waterbird numbers estimated during annual aerial surveys collapsed by 90%, from an average of 139,939 (1983-1986) to 14,170 (1998-2001). Similar declines occurred across all functional groups: piscivores (82%), herbivores (87%), ducks and small grebe species (90%), large wading birds (91%), and small wading birds (95%), indicating a similar decline in the aquatic biota that formed their food base. Numbers of species also declined significantly by 21%. The Lowbidgee floodplain is an example of the ecological consequences of water resource development. Yanga Nature Reserve, within the Lowbidgee floodplain, conserved for its floodplain vegetation communities, will lose these communities because of insufficient water. Until conservation policies adequately protect river flows to important wetland areas, examples such as the Lowbidgee will continue to occur around the world.

Measurement Errors in Line Transect Surveys Where Detectability Varies with Distance and Size

When using bivariate line transect methods to estimate the biomass density of a tightly clustered biological population, it is generally assumed that both the perpendicular distance from the trackline to the cluster and the cluster size, or biomass, are measured without error. This is unlikely to be the case in practice. In this article, assuming additive mean zero errors in distance and multiplicative errors in size, we develop an estimator of density that corrects for these errors. We use the method of moments for the case of gamma cluster size, randomly placed transect lines, and the generalized exponential detection function. We derive results that show that it may not be necessary to correct for errors in distance or size when the distance and size estimates are not biased. When the size estimates are biased, the biomass density estimate has approximately the same bias as the size estimates. The work is illustrated in the context of annual aerial surveys for juvenile southern bluefin tuna in the Great Australian Bight.

Visibility Bias in Aerial Surveys Relating to Nest Success of Arctic Geese

We conducted annual aerial surveys of white-fronted (Anser albifrons fontalis) and Canada (Branta canadensis hutchinsii) geese during the first week of incubation over 8,000 ha near Walker Bay, Northwest Territories, from 1986 through 1992 to monitor population size and trend. Unexpectedly, population estimates of each species fluctuated widely but similarly among years (r = 0.912, P = 0.003), causing us to examine relationships with ground studies. Population estimates and nest success were negatively correlated for both species (r = −0.86, P = 0.03 for white-fronted geese; r = −0.93, P = 0.01 for Canada geese). Ground counts of nests on random 100-ha plots provided an unbiased estimate of nest density. Visibility (the probability that an object within the field of search will be seen by the observer) of nesting geese was estimated from the ratio between nest densities estimated from the air and from the ground and was related to nest success for both species. We concluded that the decrease in visibility of pairs with increasing nest success resulted from behavioral changes in birds that lost their nests. Geese that lost their nests were more conspicuous because both members of the pair were together and flushed at greater distances, whereas 1 member of a successful pair was usually incubating. Because visibility of pairs can be low in years of high nest success, variation in visibility must be accounted for when estimating densities of nesting geese by aerial survey. Failure to consider visibility could lead managers to erroneous conclusions about the status of arctic goose populations

TRENDS IN THE INSHORE RIGHT WHALE POPULATION OFF SOUTH AFRICA, 1969–1987

AbstractResults of annual aerial surveys of the right whale population along the southern coast of South Africa from 1971 to 1987 are analysed. About 91.5% of cows with calves and 82% of unaccompanied adults on the South African coast in spring are found within the standard survey area, with some indications that the range is expanding up the west coast. In the nearshore region, most right whales (90%) are found within 1.85 km, and all cows with calves within 0.93 km, of the coast. Within the standard survey area, specific areas of concentration can be predictably identified, both for cows with calves and unaccompanied adults. Although total counts (and counts expressed per hour flown) have increased overall, by a best estimate of 6.8% (95% CL 4.6, 9.0) per year from 1971 to 1987, some concentration areas for both classes have failed to show an increase over the same time period. Photographic flights since 1979 have permitted the movements of individually identified adult females to be monitored between successive calves. In at least one concentration area for which no overall increase between 1971 and 1987 was apparent (Mossel Bay), a large net emigration rate was found, nearly all of which involved a shift to the main nursery area to the west, off De Hoop. Reasons for the dissimilar dynamics of different concentration areas are not yet known.

On the ecology of the harbour sealPhoca vitulinain the Wadden Sea: Population dynamics, residue levels, and management

The harbour seal population in the Dutch Wadden Sea decreased significantly during the last decades. Calculations based on bounty data revealed that the population decreased from about 2700 in 1950 to about 900 in 1959. Annual aerial surveys--which were carried out since that time--showed a slight increase due to the stop of hunting. However, after 1964 a new decline occurred and since 1974 the population stays at a level of about 450 specimens. During 1974 to 1978 the population dynamics of the population have been studied Frequent aerial surveys provided data on the size of the population. These data have been used in a simulation model and the birth rate and the initial juvenile mortality were calculated. During boat trips an indication of the age composition was obtained by measuring track widths. By comparing these results with similar results from a stable population in Schleswig Holstein it appeared: (1) that juvenile mortality in the first weeks in the Dutch population is higher than that in Schleswig Holstein but the overall mortality of pups in both areas in their first three months of life is of the same order; (2) that pup production in the Dutch population is low compared to the population in Schleswig Holstein; (3) that apparently immigration from elsewhere occurs. To investigate the contribution of environmental pollution to the decline of the Dutch seal population tissues of dead, stranded animals originating from Schleswig Holstein, Denmark and the Netherlands were collected and analyzed for PCBs, o,p'-DDT, p,p'-(DDT, DDE, TDE), dieldrin, aldrin, endrin, endosulfan, alpha, beta, gamma,-HCH, HCB, QCB (pentachlorobenzene), HEPO, total mercury, methyl-mercury, selenium and bromium. Considering epidemiological and experimental data on the effects of PCBs on mammalian reproduction, strong support is obtained for the hypothesis that PCBs are responsible for the decreased reproduction in seals from the Dutch Wadden Sea. if PBCs are responsible for the decrease of the Dutch seal population, measure of all North Sea countries are urgently required because these PCBs may not only be a hazard to seals but also to other animals and even man. Production and use of PCBs should be limited and used PCBs should be collected and destroyed. However, even if an immediate ban on PCB's would be effected, the effects of PCBs because of their persistent character are likely to last many years. For that reason it may be assumed that the seal population in the western Wadden Sea still faces a difficult period in the years to come. In order to lead this population through this difficult period, all possible measures enhancing its continued existence should be taken. Since the seals in the Wadden Sea form one population maximum result may be expected from measures applying to all seals in the Wadden Sea. Thus international cooperation is necessary. The following measures are proposed: Continued interdiction of hunting in order to obtain a maximum number of animals taking part in reproduction. Establishment of seal reserves and, additionally supporting seal nursery stations in order to guarantee a maximum reproductive output. However, it has to be stressed that these measures are not effective if at the same time the main cause of the decrease is not found and brought under control.

Distribution and Ecology of Whistling Swans in the Chesapeake Bay Region

suggested that the swan populations may be of sufficient numerical size, to withstand a limited harvest. Because of these considerations, a special effort was made to obtain more information concerning the local distribution, numerical status and ecology of Whistling Swans throughout the Chesapeake Bay region. These investigations have involved aerial surveys (January inventories) of wintering populations, field studies of environmental relationships, and laboratory analyses of food in gullets and stomachs of collected specimens. Much of the work was cooperative in nature. The senior author was primarily responsible for field studies of environmental relationships, for the quantitative food habits analyses and for the preparation of this report. The junior author arranged for the collection of swan specimens for food habit studies, and checked and verified the identifications of invertebrate food items. Most of the swans obtained, were collected through the cooperation of the Maryland State Game and Inland Fish Commission, and in particular, by two of their employees, W. R. Nicholson and H. R. Zeller. The annual aerial surveys of wintering populations of Whistling Swans were conducted by personnel of the Branch of Game Management, Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife, in the Fish and Wildlife Service. Don P. Fankhauser assisted the senior author in the field studies, and in the preparation of the food habits material for examination and analysis. The counts of wintering swan populations included in this report appear reasonably reliable as population indices, but probably should not be taken as dependable estimates of actual numbers, since the accuracy of the aerial survey method employed has not been evaluated. The common names of plants referred to are taken largely from Hotchkiss (1950). Mollusk names are based on Morris (1951), brought up to date