Annan Plan Research Articles

RECENT PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN THE TURKISH REPUBLIC OF NORTHERN CYPRUS

The author analyzes the situation in Cyprus upon the background o f the Annan plan and the recent parliamentary elections. The article covers the main events andfactors that have a bearing on the current sitaution in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). The analysis concerns the Turkish prime minister's pre-election visit to the TRNC, political campaigning for the elections, external and internal factos influencing the elections, its results and Turkey's reactions to the election results and the new government. The author contends that President Denkta$ envisages 'a single new state created by the two existing states'. As to the form o f the union, he believes that 'a corifederal system would have more chance of success than afederal system. Ifthis works well the two sides may decide in future to establish a closer union'.

The United States and Russian Governments Involvement in the Syrian Crisis and the United Nations’ Kofi Annan Peace Process

The inability of the Syrian government to internally manage the popular uprising in the country have increased international pressure on Syria as well as deepen international efforts to resolve the crisis that has developed into a full scale civil war. It was the need to end the violent conflict in Syria that informed the appointment of Kofi Annan as the U.N-Arab League Special Envoy to Syria on February 23, 2012. This study investigates the U.S and Russian governments’ involvement in the Syrian crisis and the UN Kofi Annan peace process. The two persons’ Zero-sum model of the game theory is used as our framework of analysis. Our findings showed that the divergence on financial and military support by the U.S and Russian governments to the rival parties in the Syrian conflict contradicted the mandate of the U.N Security Council that sanctioned the Annan plan and compromised the ceasefire agreement contained in the plan which resulted in the escalation of violent conflict in Syria during the period the peace deal was supposed to be in effect. The implication of the study is that the success of any U.N brokered peace deal is highly dependent on the ability of its key members to have a consensus, hence, there is need to galvanize a comprehensive international consensus on how to tackle the Syrian crisis that would accommodate all crucial international actors. We recommended that there is need for a negotiated solution that will involve a compromise agreement by the conflicting parties on the basis of mutual consent since the zero-sum nature of the Syrian conflict in which both regime and its opponents seek total victory make political settlement elusive. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n27p1154

The Cyprus Problem after the 1999 Helsinki European Council

This essay attempts to assess the consequences of the so-called Helsinki Strategy since its creation at the Helsinki European Council of December 1999. It analyzes the strategy’s interrelations with other processes involved in developments related to the Cyprus problem. Despite the fears and criticisms expressed at the time and the complex of events and processes that followed, the decisions affecting Cyprus, Turkey, and Greece at the Helsinki Council reflected a degree of “Europeanization” of a conflict situation. It is also argued that the contents of the Annan Plan for Cyprus’s reunification and the outcomes of the referenda on that plan in 2004 are not the results of the Helsinki Strategy but have a different origin.

Peace Journalism and News Coverage on the Annan Plan Referendum: The Role of Framing the Conflict Issues and Negotiation Process

Peace Journalism and News Coverage on the Annan Plan Referendum: The Role of Framing the Conflict Issues and Negotiation Process

‘Cypriot-led, Cypriot-owned’: Cyprus talks revisited

Cyprus occupies an unenviable position among a group of intractable international conflicts which transcend their national borders and whose resolution has eluded third-party mediation. The Cyprus dispute has preoccupied theorists and practitioners of conflict resolution ever since the United Nations stationed its peacekeeping force on the island in 1964. Even attempts by the United Nations to revitalise the Cyprus talks following the 2004 referendum on the Annan plan have not yielded satisfactory results. For decades, the Cyprus problem has challenged conventional international analysis and defied traditional approaches to negotiation and peacemaking. This article grapples with the question of why this conflict has not been resolved despite endless negotiations. By extrapolating three seemingly distinct variables—Cypriotisation, Europeanisation and post-Kemalism—this article alludes to changes in the conflict's contextual parameters that are conducive to a political settlement.

If At First You Don't Succeed, Try, Try Again: (Re)Designing Referenda to Ratify a Peace Treaty in Cyprus

The latest round of negotiations to solve the Cyprus problem commenced in 2008 with a pledge to submit any agreement to separate simultaneous referenda. Unlike the aborted Annan Plan that was rejected in referenda in 2004, this round of negotiations was meant to be qualitatively different in being for and by “Cypriots.” This article assesses the negotiations given the 2004 precedent and legacies. Does the current process entail a qualitatively different approach to design that could affect the outcome of a future referendum? Opportunities to bring citizens into the process have been missed. Moreover, due to stalemates, the international mediators have had to exert more pressure, leading to internationalization and nullifying the “Cypriot-led” process.

An overview of the construction sector in Northern Cyprus

After 2005, construction sector in Northern Cyprus proved its potential of being locomotive in the economy. Increasing expectations to the solution of Cyprus problem, the positive reflections of the Annan Plan and the conjectural abundance of liquidity in the world caused the construction sector to play the leading role in the economy of Northern Cyprus. However, these conditions have been reversed in a negative way today. Furthermore, internal problems such as high production costs, absence of development plan, availability of unregistered contractors, weak institutional and financial structure of contractors, absence of country physical plan and absence of legal system protecting property owners especially foreigners combined with uncontrollable external factors create negative impact on the sector’s productivity and hence the competitiveness of the construction sector and the economy as a whole. Key words: Overview, construction sector, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT), Northern Cyprus.

The Cyprus Gordian Knot: An Intractable Ethnic Conflict

This article addresses the reasons for the nonresolution of the Cyprus problem and for its legendary intractability. It starts by highlighting three distinct features of the Cyprus problem followed by a historical account, with emphasis on attempts at a settlement. The third and fourth parts examine the window of opportunity of 1999–2004 (Cyprus's European Union accession process and the Annan Plan) and the reasons for its spectacular failure, and the more recent negotiation (2008–10) that was initially promising but is now hanging from a thread. The last part focuses on nine reasons for the impasse that has made the Cyprus conflict impervious to reunification and resolution.

FEDERALISM AND THE ‘ONE-PERSON ONE-VOTE PRINCIPLE’: POLITICAL ACCOMMODATION IN CYPRUS AND THE ANNAN PLAN

The ‘one-person one-vote principle’ (OPOV) seems to be an intuitively appealing principle, one that is procedurally fair by ensuring equality in votes for all and contributes to the proper functioning of democratic states. Although commonly cited as a cornerstone of democracy, this article argues that OPOV can be a dangerous principle in societies divided by group conflict. Minorities face permanent exclusion, and thus cannot protect their own interests, leading to resentment and destabilization. Moreover, deviation from OPOV is not uncommon in political accommodation, especially in federal arrangements. Opponents of deviation argue that it is both undemocratic and dysfunctional having potentially damaging implications for reconciliation. This article examines these claims in the case of Cyprus under the federal arrangements of the Annan plan. After discussing federalism and Cypriot politics, the article analyses philosophical and international positions on deviation from OPOV in order to assess whether deviation can be considered undemocratic, arguing that whilst not always procedurally fair or equal, deviation should be considered democratic if it encourages the effective participation of minorities. The article then examines the provisions within the Annan Plan to argue that its deviations from the OPOV principle do not hinder its functionality. The article concludes by arguing federalism and deviation from OPOV encourage political accommodation and offer the best chance of reconciliation between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots.

YAKINTHOU, C. 2009, Political Settlements in Divided Societies: Consociationalism and Cyprus, Palgrave MacMillan, Basingstoke/New York, p.288.

‘Political Settlements in Divided Societies’, one of the latest contributions to the literature on Cyprus, attempts to analyse the failure of the Annan Plan through the prism of consociational approaches to negotiated settlements.

The Cyprus referendum: a divided island and the challenge of the Annan Plan

The Cyprus referendum: a divided island and the challenge of the Annan Plan

The Red Line: Pressure and Persuasion in Greek Diplomatic Strategies on Cyprus, 1945 to 2004

The negotiating position of an international player is strengthened when it can persuade third parties that it has reached the limits of its concessions. However, from 1945 to 2004 the Greek side (both Athens and Nicosia) managed convincingly to convey this message to the international community only twice: in 1958, prior to the conclusion of the agreements for Cypriot independence, and in 2004, when the Annan Plan was rejected by the Greek-Cypriot community. This failure of the Greek side should be attributed to a combination of maximalism, lack of accurate assessments of the interests and objectives of other actors, and lack of consistency in Greek discourse.

An International Relations Debacle: The UN Secretary-General's Mission of Good Offices in Cyprus, 1999-2004, Legal Aspects of the Cyprus Problem: Annan Plan and EU Accession and A Functional Cyprus Settlement: The Constitutional Dimension

An International Relations Debacle: The UN Secretary-General's Mission of Good Offices in Cyprus, 1999-2004, Legal Aspects of the Cyprus Problem: Annan Plan and EU Accession and A Functional Cyprus Settlement: The Constitutional Dimension

Beyond ethno‐nationalism: emerging trends in Cypriot politics after the Annan Plan†

ABSTRACT. Historically, conflict between the two communities in Cyprus has been characterised by the diverging demands of ethno‐nationalists. The introduction of the Annan Plan for the solution of the Cyprus problem has fostered new trends in Cypriot politics and a new alignment of the political forces on the island. This paper argues that the conventional ethno‐nationalist division and the left–right divide are no longer sufficient in understanding the conflict in Cyprus. The new dividing and unifying elements in Cypriot politics can be best understood through analysing the views of political actors on such issues as sovereignty, territoriality, identity and power‐sharing.

Explosive construction in a micro‐state: environmental limit and the Bon curve: evidence from North Cyprus

The dynamo role of the construction sector in North Cyprus is documented on the basis of an empirical estimation of backward and forward linkages during the period 1998 to 2005. This was a period when the North Cyprus economy experienced an economic boom in the aftermath of the UN Peace Plan known as the Annan Plan for settling the Cyprus problem. The latest input–output table for the North Cyprus economy is 1998 and we had to derive backward and forward linkages for 2005 from a detailed breakdown of inter‐industry transactions per unit of construction output using the most significant purchases and deliveries, normalizing these transactions for comparability between 2005 and 1998. The results reflect radically different pattern of inter‐industry transactions in 2005 compared to 1998. This work also has general interest in highlighting the possibility of a modified Bon curve for micro‐states, such as North Cyprus, in which environmental constraints may be encountered earlier implying an inverted V‐shaped Bon curve in place of an inverted U‐shape.

Pre-negotiation and its Limits in Ethno-National Conflicts: A Systematic Analysis of Process and Outcomes in the Cyprus Negotiations

AbstractThe repeated failures of negotiation in ethno-national conflicts highlight the importance of studying the relationship between the pre-negotiation process and the results of the subsequent formal negotiations. This study examines various factors that contributed to a decision by adversaries to initiate official negotiations, and how these factors affected the prospects for a negotiated agreement. Furthermore, it suggests that certain elements in the pre-negotiation process portend the nature of the changes in the parties' political positions (tactical or strategic) and the parties' readiness to reach an agreement. An exploration is presented using a case study of the negotiations over the Cyprus conflict in 2004 which resulted in the ultimate rejection by the negotiating parties of the Annan Plan in late March of 2004. We examine the connection between the pre-negotiation process, from the end of 2003 until February 13, 2004, and the failure of the formal negotiations in March 2004. The analysis indicates that the deficient method and process of the pre-negotiations that took place regarding the Cyprus conflict determined the subsequent failure of the negotiations. The early detection of such factors in other negotiations over ethno-national conflicts may mitigate the causes that lead to failure, or perhaps assist in managing the process differently, so as to facilitate a more positive outcome.

Kwestia cypryjska po roku 2004: pojednanie czy podział?

Having outlined the history, and described the Annan Plan and its fiasco in detail, the Author concludes that further maintenance of the status quo, or the division of Cyprus would be unfavorable for thousands of Cypriot Greeks who abandoned their assets in the north of the island in 1974. Despite the ruling of the European Court of Human Rights of December 22, 2005, that was advantageous for them, it is beyond any doubt that their claims would be satisfied earlier were the Cyprus question resolved.

Public Attitudes Towards Peace: The Greek-Cypriot Position

In 1974, Turkey divided Cyprus by military force into the north and south, giving the Turkish Cypriots full control of the north. Since then, the United Nations (UN) has attempted to resolve the Cyprus problem, but diplomatic efforts have always fallen short. In 2004, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan proposed a plan that would reunify Cyprus. In a public referendum that followed, about two-thirds of Turkish Cypriots voted for the plan; however, three-quarters of Greek Cypriots rejected the plan. To help illuminate Greek-Cypriot public opinion, a telephone survey is conducted with 150 randomly selected Greek-Cypriot citizens (with a response rate of 87%). Results demonstrate that about four-fifths of respondents do not mistrust Turkish Cypriots and believe they can peacefully coexist with them. Still, 43% of respondents report that Greek Cypriots as a group are not very well prepared to reunify with Turkish Cypriots. Perception of ethnocentrism for both sides is found to be at comparable, mediocre levels. Narrative analyses suggest that the Annan Plan be revised to assure, among other things, (1) complete and timely demilitarization of the island, (2) removal of all Turkish settlers, (3) containment of extremist elements from both sides, and (4) fiscal backing from the international community to the Turkish-Cypriot side. The social and political implications of the findings, study limitations, and some future research needs are highlighted.

The Cyprus Peace Talks: A Critical Appraisal

Despite three decades of persistent efforts to bring about a negotiated settlement, the small island of Cyprus still remains physically and demographically divided. Failure of the 2004 Annan Plan has compounded the need for a thorough reassessment of the Cyprus peace process with a view to ascertaining the reasons for its collapse. Drawing on the findings of research that attributes the failure of earlier negotiations to the negative balance between impeding influences and facilitating factors, the author examines the manner and the extent to which the Annan initiative internalized the lessons learned from these past failures. Was the collapse of the Annan initiative best explained in terms of the shortcomings of the mediating strategy, or did it fail because of the continuing intractability of the conflict (i.e. the two sides remain too far apart on the fundamentals for any mediating strategy to work)? This article examines how the Annan strategy sought to change the imbalance between impeding and facilitating factors, asking, in particular, where it made headway, where did it not, and why. It goes on to characterize the overall impeding/facilitating balance in the post-Annan period and advances a number of propositions on how the imbalance may be shifted in a more positive direction.

Power-sharing and its discontents: Dysfunctional constitutional arrangements and the failure of the Annan plan for a reunified Cyprus

Cyprus has defied the best efforts of international mediation for two generations. The complexity of the problems it presents is in inverse proportion to its size, which is barely two-thirds that o...