Analysis Of Trade Flows Research Articles

Multilevel Modelling in Economics: A Way to Test the Natural-Partner Hypothesis

This study applies multilevel modelling to the analysis of trade flows. This methodology can complement the use of the standard gravity equation in addressing the influence of geographical distance on the impact of trade agreements on bilateral trade (the natural-partner hypothesis). The analysis suggests that the simplest, most obvious, and best way to nest country pairs with international trade data is by distance. To this end, a sample of 69 countries with data on domestic flows over the period 1986–2016 was used. This sample accounts for around 85% of world trade data. The estimations suggest that the pro-trade effects of preferential trade agreements decrease with distance to trade partners, while this does not occur with the multilateral trading system. What is more interesting is that the former result only holds for the preferential trade agreements involving goods, which supports the natural-trading partner hypothesis, but not for those that include services. In the latter case, the impact increases with distance. This suggests that deeper preferential trade agreements reduce the cost of distance as a barrier to trade, which probably reflects cultural (regulation) distance.

Competitiveness of Sri Lankan Tea in the International Market: A Trade Flow Analysis

For more than 150 years, Sri Lanka has had a significant influence on the world market for tea. Sri Lanka is one of the world's top producers and exporters of tea. However, Sri Lanka's tea industry encounters a number of challenges due to internal and external market conditions, including governmental regulations, rising labour costs, and supply chain disruptions. These challenges can affect the competitiveness of Sri Lanka’s tea exports in the global market. Therefore, it is important to understand how the competitiveness of Sri Lankan tea exports in the global tea market changed over time. The specific objectives of the study were to examine the relative contribution of Sri Lanka’s tea exports to the international market and to assess the level of competitiveness of Sri Lanka’s tea exports. Based on the positivist research philosophy and quantitative approach, this study adopted four indexes to assess the level of competition. These indices include export market share (MS), export unit price (EUP), revealed comparative advantage (RCA), and revealed trade advantage (RTA). The study's findings demonstrated that while the export unit price exhibited an upward trend, Sri Lanka's market share in the world tea market has decreased over time. According to the findings of the RCA and RTA indices, Sri Lanka's competitiveness in terms of international tea exports has continuously decreased. Kenya, on the other hand, has witnessed a rise in tea export competition, while China and India have seen a decline in tea export competition. This study emphasizes the need for implementing efficient production methods in order to provide Sri Lankan tea to the global market at a lower price. Additionally, government policies ought to focus on offering technical assistance to boost productivity in the Sri Lankan tea industry.

Prospects for the development of cross-border e-commerce between Russia and China

The paper examines the prospects and peculiarities of the development of cross-border e-commerce between Russia and China. The degree of e-commerce impact on trade turnover between Russia and China is assessed using an econometric model based on the analysis of trade flows between BRICS countries in the period from 2000 to 2022. The results obtained indicate that with an increase of 1% in the number of Internet users in Russia and its trading partners from the BRICS countries, the trade turnover increases by 0.19%. The paper also identifies the key challenges faced by entrepreneurs engaged in cross-border e-commerce between Russia and China and offers guidelines for these countries’ cooperation in the field of e-commerce. Based on the analysis of the relevant data the paper concludes that integration of digital technologies and increased access to the Internet contribute to the strengthening of trade ties between Russia and the BRICS countries, thus opening up new prospects for the development of cross-border e-commerce.

Evolution of trade and productive integration in Latin America, 1995–2015: an input-output analysis

PurposeThe main goal of this paper is to examine the evolution of Latin American productive integration in terms of the regional value added incorporated in intra-regional exports of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. In addition, the study traces the trade and productive integration trajectories for each of these countries from 1995 to 2015.Design/methodology/approachBased on the use of OECD’s global ICIO input-output tables, this paper applies the methodological framework by Wang et al. (2018) for the analysis of trade flows at the bilateral level, which allows breaking down the value of gross exports of each sector-country, depending on the origin of the value added contained in exports, as well as their use.FindingsThe estimates show very low shares of value added from regional partners in the intra-regional exports of the countries studied. Conversely, the weight of the value added incorporated in these exports by countries outside the region has increased in tandem with China’s expanding involvement in Latin America. This development, along with the downward trend in domestic value added incorporated in exports, indicates a lack of a regional integration process of any depth.Originality/valueThis article addresses an economic problem of conventional importance from a global value chain perspective using a novel methodology based on the use of global input–output tables.

DIVERSIFICATION OF POLISH AGRI-FOOD EXPORTS

The aim of the article is to present the changes in the degree of geographical and product diversification of Polish agri-food exports in the years 2004-2022. The agri-food sector is a very important part of the Polish economy. It is also one of the few branches of the national economy that obtains a positive trade balance. The value of Polish agri-food exports reaches record levels every year. The strong concentration of Polish exports on the EU market, which accounts for over 70% of foreign sales, initially supported its development, currently is increasingly perceived as a threat to the agri-food sector in Poland. One of the most important ways to reduce risk in exports is to diversify them. The study assessed the product and geographical diversification of Polish agri-food exports based on the analysis of trade flows, the indicator of decomposition of export growth into intensive and extensive activities (based on the Amsoff matrix) and Herfindahla-Hirschmana (HHI) concentration indicators. The results of the analysis showed that the current increase in Polish agri-food exports was generated through intensive activities, i.e. increasing share of existing products in the existing market by acquiring new customers. In practice, it most often came down to lowering prices and taking advantage of the economies of scale. Currently, however, the possibilities of further competition on price are very limited. Therefore, entrepreneurs should strive to look for new markets for their products, but also to expand their offer with new or modified products with greater added value.

Research on international trade flow analysis based on potential clustering network

Abstract International trade is an important part of the world economy, and the rapid development of big data and complex network theory provides the possibility of an in-depth study of international trade networks. This study constructs the international trade flow gravity model and international trade flow index system on the basis of the clustered dynamic panel gravity model. It explores the influencing factors of national trade flow and the fitting effect of the international trade gravity model through factor analysis and regression analysis of variables in the system. The sample data’s KMO value is 0.834, according to the results, and there is a significant correlation between the variables. The degree of explanation of the public factors to the original variables is more than 0.5, and the variance contribution rate of trade structure, marketized structure, population and macroeconomics, international capital, and exchange rate reaches 71.832%, which makes the factor analysis more effective. The R² value of the trade gravity model reaches 0.837, with a remarkable effect. Among the sample countries, the highest trade flow potential is the United States (125,467.0), while the lowest is Portugal (512.4). The national GDP and population have a significant effect on international trade flows. The volume of each trading country should be used as a reference basis for conducting trade transactions when conducting international trade.

Развитие сетевых бизнес-структур в пространственно распределенном кластере Санкт-Петербург — Ленинградская область — Калининградская область как инструмент межрегионального взаимодействия

In the current conditions of increasing geopolitical tension and volatility in the global economy, the development of interregional interaction is increasingly seen as a source of eco­nomic growth for Russian regions. However, the study of such interaction should not only include an analysis of trade flows but also an analysis of network interaction, an attempt to carry out which is presented in this work. The article presents the results of a study analyzing the presence of Saint Petersburg companies with their own brands in the Kaliningrad region. The research covered 33 companies from Saint Petersburg. It was found that in the Kalinin­grad region, only eight Saint Petersburg companies, including federal-level organizations, have regional representations, offices, branches, own stores, or dealer centers. Excluding fed­eral-level organizations, this number is five. The financial services sector turned out to be the most represented, while the least represented were the IT industry, pharmaceuticals, food industry, and agriculture. All of this is happening against the backdrop of the expansion of the presence of Saint Petersburg businesses in the regions of the Russian Federation beyond the Northwestern Federal District.

Dynamic Interrelationships Between EAEU Foreign Trade and Macroeconomic Indicators: An Empirical Analysis

International trade contributes to the development of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as a regional integration alliance and, as stated by classical economists, plays a decisive role in the economic growth of any country (region). Most studies of EAEU international trade flow analysis focus on the trade component. The present paper attempts to display the connection between EAEU trade and macroeconomic indicators. The applied technical methods of statistical analysis have enabled the researchers to evaluate SARIMA models for export and import, and forecast EAEU 2020 trade dynamics based on these models. Then keeping in mind, the idea that the basis of the constructed model is the assumption that the series will maintain its trend, the actual value was simply subtracted from the forecast value to measure the 2020 shock effect. Due to the fundamental methods of statistical analysis the EAEU member countries’ trade and macroeconomic indicators elasticity ratios have been calculated, which are likely to measure the impact rate and become new empirical knowledge in assessing the interaction of trade turnover and the economic growth of the countries.

Advancing UN Comtrade for Physical Trade Flow Analysis: Review of Data Quality Issues and Solutions

International trade has been considered a critical driving force of material flows and their environmental pressures, which has been a global research hotspot. The United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade) is the original and probably the most widely-used data source to support the physical trade analysis. However, data discrepancies have been discovered in UN Comtrade, which may lead to diametrically conflicted conclusions if not properly addressed. To promote applications of UN Comtrade, this article reviews data statistics criteria and preprocessing procedures, discusses three main data quality issues (outliers, missing values, and bilateral asymmetries), and reviews methods to explore adequate options. It is revealed that data quality issues existed in data of almost all the commodities, reporters, and periods, but existing methods are subject to certain limitations. Furthermore, this article presents a brief introduction of our following work on addressing these issues.

Advancing UN Comtrade for Physical Trade Flow Analysis: Addressing the Issue of Outliers

The UN Comtrade is one of the most widely used data sources for physical trade analysis. However, the issue of outliers would result in misleading interpretations and biased results, limiting its applications. Assuming that no deals would be made at unreasonable prices, we define an outlier as the data record whose unit price (trade value divided by net weight) is unusually high or low. To address the outlier issue, we develop a framework of first applying the kernel density estimation method to detect outliers and then using different statistical models to handle them based on their potential causes, then develop a deviation index to assess the impacts of outliers, and present the data quality improvement and the significance of our framework; and finally evaluate its performance by comparing with previous methods to show its outperformance on adaptability to different commodities’ data. Our results reveal that outliers exist for almost all reporters (207 in 209, 99%), all commodities, and all years, and most outliers (92%) are with wrong net weight values. With a higher deviation index, reporters are Canada, China, France, etc., while commodities are high-price electronic products, clocks, etc. The data quality would be greatly improved by addressing the outlier issue, thus benefiting UN-based physical trade analysis.

Advancing UN Comtrade for physical trade flow analysis

Advancing UN Comtrade for physical trade flow analysis

Advancing UN Comtrade for physical trade flow analysis: Addressing the issue of missing values

Trade contributes to the redistribution of resources among countries and regions. One of the most widely used data sources is the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade). Nevertheless, data issues still limit its validity, trustworthiness, and use. A critical issue is the lack of commodity weight information. It relies heavily on data quality to determine the global market's suppliers and consumers. Thus, trade needs reliable methods for filling in the missing physical values. Using statistical approaches, we estimate missing physical values for commodities, countries/areas, and years. The impact of handled data on countries and commodities varies considerably; for example, South Africa's net weight rose by 117% and clocks’ and watches’ by 63% (HS0, 1988–2019), compared with their original data. The directions of net trade flows for 10594 records have been reversed. Finally, the bilateral asymmetry problem improved. Overall, this paper introduces a novel approach for improving data accuracy.

Assessment of freight traffic flows and harmful emissions in euro-mediterranean context: scenario analyses based on a gravity model

Maritime transport contributes significantly to environmental pollution. The Mediterranean Sea Area is particularly affected by marine emissions from particulate matter, black carbon, nitrogen oxides and sulphur oxides. In addition to international and crossing traffic, the Mediterranean Sea is affected by the freight flows moved between its shores (in the North–South direction and vice versa), but also by transverse freight flows (East–West); these are freights transported through Short Sea Shipping. The Mediterranean Sea is the area where there is the highest concentration of short sea shipping in the EU-27. There are different types of Short Sea transport: container and bulk handling, general cargo ships and Ro-Ro transport. In such scenario, the analysis of trade flows as well as their spatial and geographical distribution, becomes fundamental. The paper proposes a gravity model for estimating trade flows, considering 18 countries boarding the Euro-Mediterranean Sea, in 2019. The proposed gravity model assumes that one of the main factors affecting trade is the economic dimension of a country which is directly related to the volume of imports and exports. In the paper, after a literature review on the gravity models, the illustration of the different phases investigation and construction of the database (specification, calibration and validation) to the definition and implementation of the proposed model is proposed. Scenario analyses are therefore proposed for assessing the environmental impacts generated by maritime transport in the Mediterranean basin as the freight flows vary. The analyses are carried out using a simulation approach which, starting from hypotheses on the economic and social development trends of the countries of the southern shore, made it possible to evaluate the variations in terms of freight flows and environmental impacts in terms of pollution.

Economic intelligence index and trade flow analysis

The aim of the research is to explore the natural predisposition of the world’s nations to implement an effective and efficient Economic Intelligence strategy, through the calculation of an index that measures the country’s position in the network of international relations. Economic Intelligence is a new discipline introduced by scholars in order to support the national governments through new information bases designed to succeed in the complex economic environment following the development of globalization. Given that a central role in the international economic relations’ network provides a privileged position for acquiring information useful for supporting the logical aspects of strategic planning, a country with such a role has a natural predisposition to develop a successful Economic Intelligence strategy. Thus, the subject of the research focuses on analysing that predisposition by measuring the significance of the position occupied by a country in the global trade network. For that purpose, the methodology of the Social Network Analysis is used. The assumption is that by calculating the Economic Intelligence Index, that is a weighted average of the main centrality indexes related to each country within the global trade network, it is possible to measure a national entity’s inclination to developing a sound Economic Intelligence strategy. The basic conclusion of the article highlights that, notwithstanding the fact that a prominent role in the global trade network is occupied by the major countries in terms of commercial importing value, other countries characterized by a significant Economic Intelligence Index could be in a position to develop a successful Economic Intelligence strategy.

Advancing Un Comtrade for Physical Trade Flow Analysis: Review of Data Quality Issues and Solutions

Advancing Un Comtrade for Physical Trade Flow Analysis: Review of Data Quality Issues and Solutions

Advancing Un Comtrade for Physical Trade Flow Analysis: Addressing the Issue of Missing Values

Advancing Un Comtrade for Physical Trade Flow Analysis: Addressing the Issue of Missing Values

Advancing Un Comtrade for Physical Trade Flow Analysis: Addressing the Issue of Outliers

Advancing Un Comtrade for Physical Trade Flow Analysis: Addressing the Issue of Outliers

An analysis of trade flows between BRICS and European Union: a quantitative assessment

BRICS with their outward oriented strategy became the most influential group in international arena. Their economic and political weight which induces the negotiations/discussions with EU, lends the EU a special responsibility for the deeper integration of BRICS. Therefore, the economic impact of EU on the members of BRICS, post 2008 crisis and amidst Brexit declaration is essential to understand and how it affects the trade flows assumes a lot of significance. Against this backdrop, the study attempts to analyse the trade flows and its determinants between EU and BRICS applying gravity model. The estimated results reveal that economic size, market size, distance and the Brexit policy have significant effect on bilateral trade flows between BRICS and EU. BRICS future negotiations with EU as a unified single entity are desirable to expand beyond trade focussing on investments particularly for infrastructure building, technology upgradation and skill development. The study recommends product diversification and digitisation of economies for a smooth and fair trade and to mitigate the risks of present pandemic.

Comparative Analysis of the Trade Relations of Argentina-Indonesia and Chile-Indonesia:

Chile and Argentina have put their radars on trade with Southeast Asian countries, in which Indonesia appears as one of the main countries. In recent years, Chile has had a more aggressive trade policy towards Indonesia. The most recent proof has been the signing of the Indonesia - Chile Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IC-CEPA), which entered into force in 2019. The objective of this article is to present a comparative analysis of trade flows between Argentina - Indonesia and Chile - Indonesia, looking for similarities and differences between both types of bilateral ties, so that they can serve as models to improve existing relations, learning from what it has happened in each one of them.

Impacts of the China-US trade restrictions on the global forest sector: A bilateral trade flow analysis

This study assesses the impacts of the China-US trade war on the global forest product markets using the bilateral trade flow module of the Global Forest Products Model. Two alternative scenarios are compared to the business-as-usual situation: (1) the US charges 25% tariff on $200 billion of goods imported from China, which in return imposes differentiated tariffs on $60 billion of goods imported from the US; (2) the US raises the tariff rate from 25% to 30% and China adds extra tariffs on $75 billion of imported goods. It is found that China's imports of sawnwood and waste paper from the US and the US imports of plywood and other paper from China decreased significantly. Meanwhile, some of the trade flows between China and the US shifted to other parts of the world. Vietnam and New Zealand were the largest winners while Thailand suffered a relatively heavy loss. Product substitution occurred mainly in Asia and Europe, and price changes were within 10%. Overall, China benefited slightly, but the US experienced a loss. These findings have broad policy implications for international trade.