Impacts of the China-US trade restrictions on the global forest sector: A bilateral trade flow analysis

Abstract

This study assesses the impacts of the China-US trade war on the global forest product markets using the bilateral trade flow module of the Global Forest Products Model. Two alternative scenarios are compared to the business-as-usual situation: (1) the US charges 25% tariff on $200 billion of goods imported from China, which in return imposes differentiated tariffs on $60 billion of goods imported from the US; (2) the US raises the tariff rate from 25% to 30% and China adds extra tariffs on $75 billion of imported goods. It is found that China's imports of sawnwood and waste paper from the US and the US imports of plywood and other paper from China decreased significantly. Meanwhile, some of the trade flows between China and the US shifted to other parts of the world. Vietnam and New Zealand were the largest winners while Thailand suffered a relatively heavy loss. Product substitution occurred mainly in Asia and Europe, and price changes were within 10%. Overall, China benefited slightly, but the US experienced a loss. These findings have broad policy implications for international trade.