Simulation Analyses Research Articles

EXPRESS: Identifying Competitors in Geographical Markets Using the CSIS Method

Identifying the most relevant competitors in a geographical market is crucial for businesses with a significant offline presence, such as hotels, restaurants, and retail stores. The specific location of a business and the geographical density of potential competitors are critical factors in determining the competitive structure. However, this task can be challenging when the potential number of competitors is large and the competition is asymmetric. In this study, we apply the Conditional Sure Independence Screening (CSIS) method to a system of demand functions for competitor identification. This method offers significant computational efficiency by estimating a marginal regression for each potential competitor, rather than a full model consisting of all potential competitors. To validate the effectiveness of the CSIS method and explore the boundary conditions of its performance, we conduct extensive simulation analyses under different spatial data-generating processes. Our findings demonstrate that the CSIS method outperforms multiple other variable selection methods and remains robust under spatial misspecifications. Then we apply the CSIS method to hotel competition in two U.S. geographical regions, illustrating how the competitive structure varies across geographical densities and market segments. Finally, we highlight how managers can strategically use the results and outline the potential of the method for other non-geographical applications.

Quantitatively assessing the impact of the quality of SNOMED CT subtype hierarchy on cohort queries

Abstract Objective SNOMED CT provides a standardized terminology for clinical concepts, allowing cohort queries over heterogeneous clinical data including Electronic Health Records (EHRs). While it is intuitive that missing and inaccurate subtype (or is-a) relations in SNOMED CT reduce the recall and precision of cohort queries, the extent of these impacts has not been formally assessed. This study fills this gap by developing quantitative metrics to measure these impacts and performing statistical analysis on their significance. Material and Methods We used the Optum de-identified COVID-19 Electronic Health Record dataset. We defined micro-averaged and macro-averaged recall and precision metrics to assess the impact of missing and inaccurate is-a relations on cohort queries. Both practical and simulated analyses were performed. Practical analyses involved 407 missing and 48 inaccurate is-a relations confirmed by domain experts, with statistical testing using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Simulated analyses used two random sets of 400 is-a relations to simulate missing and inaccurate is-a relations. Results Wilcoxon signed-rank tests from both practical and simulated analyses (P-values < .001) showed that missing is-a relations significantly reduced the micro- and macro-averaged recall, and inaccurate is-a relations significantly reduced the micro- and macro-averaged precision. Discussion The introduced impact metrics can assist SNOMED CT maintainers in prioritizing critical hierarchical defects for quality enhancement. These metrics are generally applicable for assessing the quality impact of a terminology’s subtype hierarchy on its cohort query applications. Conclusion Our results indicate a significant impact of missing and inaccurate is-a relations in SNOMED CT on the recall and precision of cohort queries. Our work highlights the importance of high-quality terminology hierarchy for cohort queries over EHR data and provides valuable insights for prioritizing quality improvements of SNOMED CT's hierarchy.

Tracking the topology of neural manifolds across populations

Neural manifolds summarize the intrinsic structure of the information encoded by a population of neurons. Advances in experimental techniques have made simultaneous recordings from multiple brain regions increasingly commonplace, raising the possibility of studying how these manifolds relate across populations. However, when the manifolds are nonlinear and possibly code for multiple unknown variables, it is challenging to extract robust and falsifiable information about their relationships. We introduce a framework, called the method of analogous cycles, for matching topological features of neural manifolds using only observed dissimilarity matrices within and between neural populations. We demonstrate via analysis of simulations and in vivo experimental data that this method can be used to correctly identify multiple shared circular coordinate systems across both stimuli and inferred neural manifolds. Conversely, the method rejects matching features that are not intrinsic to one of the systems. Further, as this method is deterministic and does not rely on dimensionality reduction or optimization methods, it is amenable to direct mathematical investigation and interpretation in terms of the underlying neural activity. We thus propose the method of analogous cycles as a suitable foundation for a theory of cross-population analysis via neural manifolds.

Anthropogenic warming has ushered in an era of temperature-dominated droughts in the western United States.

Historically, meteorological drought in the western United States (WUS) has been driven primarily by precipitation deficits. However, our observational analysis shows that, since around 2000, rising surface temperature and the resulting high evaporative demand have contributed more to drought severity (62%) and coverage (66%) over the WUS than precipitation deficit. This increase in evaporative demand during droughts, mostly attributable to anthropogenic warming according to analyses of both observations and climate model simulations, is the main cause of the increased drought severity and coverage. The unprecedented 2020-2022 WUS drought exemplifies this shift in drought drivers, with high evaporative demand accounting for 61% of its severity, compared to 39% from precipitation deficit. Climate model simulations corroborate this shift and project that, under the fossil-fueled development scenario (SSP5-8.5), droughts like the 2020-2022 event will transition from a one-in-more-than-a-thousand-year event in the pre-2022 period to a 1-in-60-year event by the mid-21st century and to a 1-in-6-year event by the late-21st century.

Evaluation of Autonomous Driving Safety by Operational Design Domains (ODD) in Mixed Traffic

This study derived effective driving behavior indicators to assess the driving safety of autonomous vehicles (AV). A variety of operation design domains (ODD) in urban road networks, which include intersections, illegal parking, bus stop, bicycle lanes, and pedestrian crossings, were taken into consideration in traffic simulation analyses. Both longitudinal and interaction driving indicators were investigated to identify the driving performance of AVs in terms of traffic safety in mixed traffic stream based on simulation experiments. As a result of identifying the appropriate evaluation indicator, time-varying stochastic volatility (VF) headway time was selected as a representative evaluation indicator for left turn and straight through signalized intersections among ODDs related to intersection types. VF headway time is suitable for evaluating driving ability by measuring the variation in driving safety in terms of interaction with the leading vehicle. In addition to ODDs associated with intersection type, U-turns, additional lane segments, illegal parking, bus stops, and merging lane have common characteristics that increase the likelihood of interactions with neighboring vehicles. The VF headway time for these ODDs was derived as driving safety in terms of interaction between vehicles. The results of this study would be valuable in establishing a guideline for driving performance evaluation of AVs. The study found that unsignalized left turns, signalized right turns, and roundabouts had the highest risk scores of 0.554, 0.525, and 0.501, respectively, indicating these as the most vulnerable ODDs for AVs. Additionally, intersection and mid-block crosswalks, as well as bicycle lanes, showed high risk scores due to frequent interactions with pedestrians and cyclists. These areas are particularly risky because they involve unpredictable movements from non-vehicular road users, which require AVs to make rapid adjustments in speed and trajectory. These findings provide a foundation for improving AV algorithms to enhance safety and establishing objective criteria for AV policy-making.

Structural Properties of [N1888][TFSI] Ionic Liquid: A Small Angle Neutron Scattering and Polarizable Molecular Dynamics Study.

In this study, we investigate the quaternary ammonium-based ionic liquid (QAIL), methyltrioctylammonium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide, [N1888][TFSI], utilizing small angle neutron scattering (SANS) measurements and polarizable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to characterize the short- and long-range liquid structure. Scattering structure factors show signatures of three length scales in reciprocal space indicative of alternating polarity (k ∼ 0.44 Å-1), charge (k ∼ 0.75 Å-1), and neighboring or adjacent (k ∼ 1.46 Å-1) domains. Excellent agreement between simulation and experimental scattering structure factors validates various simulation analyses that provide detailed atomistic characterization of the different length scale correlations. The first solvation shell structure is illustrated by obtaining radial, angular, dihedral, and combined distribution functions, where two dominant spatial motifs, N+···N- and N+···O-, compete for optimal packing around the polar head of the [N1888]+ cation. Intermediate and long-range structures are governed by the balance between local electroneutrality and octyl chain networking, respectively. By computing the charge-correlation structure factor, SZZ, and the spatial extent of the octyl chain network using graph theory, the bulk-phase structure of [N1888][TFSI] is characterized in terms of electrostatic screening and apolar domain formation length scales.

Therapeutic Effect of Shikimic Acid on Heat Stress-Induced Myocardial Damage: Assessment via Network Pharmacology, Molecular Docking, Molecular Dynamics Simulation, and In Vitro Experiments

Abstract: Background: Rising global temperatures have been linked to an increased incidence of heat stress (HS)-induced myocardial damage. Methods: This study aimed to investigate the therapeutic potential of shikimic acid (SA) on HS-induced myocardial damage using network pharmacology, molecular docking, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and in vitro experiments. Results: Network pharmacology analysis indicated that SA significantly attenuates the inflammatory response to HS by modulating 60 targets, including TNF, IL-6, and STAT3, which are enriched in the PI3K/AKT signaling pathway. Molecular docking and MD simulation analyses demonstrated that SA forms stable complexes with TNF (−6.642 kcal/mol) and IL-6 (−7.261 kcal/mol), with no significant conformational changes over a 100 ns simulation period. In vitro experiments demonstrated that SA, within the concentration range of 250 μM to 31.25 μM, significantly promoted the proliferation of normal HL-1 cells by an average of 31.0%. Moreover, it enhanced the survival rate of HL-1 cells exposed to 43 °C for 3 h by approximately 59.9% and downregulated the expression of Hsp90 and Hsp70. Additionally, this concentration range of SA reduced the expression of TNF-α, IL-6, TLR2, and COL1A1. Conclusions: These findings offer evidence for the therapeutic potential of SA in HS-induced myocardial damage.

A parameterized modeling method for analyzing welding residual stress in orthotropic steel deck

This paper presents a new parameterized method for establishing OSD models and analyzing WRS, and two plugins are developed based on the graphical user interface (GUI) of Abaqus. This parameterized method addresses the extremely high cost of manual modeling of OSD in Abaqus. In the two presented plugins, the OSD dimensions and welds size, the material properties, the welding heating source, and the mesh properties are parameterized, and the OSD model can be created automatically by the plugins without users’ pre-processing operations in Abaqus, which significantly facilitates the OSD modeling and the WRS analysis. The plugins developed in this study can provide the WRS analysis in the OSD with any dimensions and welding technologies, and the applicability of the plugins is verified by the consistency between the simulated WRS analysis results by plugins and those reported in the literature.

Investigating the role of PmrB mutation on Colistin antibiotics drug resistance in Klebsiella Pneumoniae

Klebsiella pneumoniae, a member of the Enterobacteriaceae family, naturally resides in the digestive tracts of both healthy animals and humans. Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) poses a significant health risk for hospitalized patients worldwide, greatly reducing the effectiveness of commonly used antibiotics. This leaves healthcare providers with limited treatment options, often relying on colistin. PmrB is important for the survival of Klebsiella pneumonia and, a mutation in the PmrB protein is accountable for the development of colistin antibiotic resistance in Klebsiella pneumonia. This is especially important because colistin is a fundamental component in the treatment of pneumonia. Three mutated residues—T157P, G207D, and T246A—are responsible for colistin resistance. The structural alterations and underlying mechanisms in the PmrB protein that cause resistance owing to mutation remain unclear. As a result, this study is focused to the exploration of the putative mechanism of resistance resulting from these mutations, as well as the structure modification of normal and mutant PmrB proteins, using molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulations analysis. Our results demonstrated that the interaction paradigm for the mutants has been altered and thus showing a significant effect upon the hydrogen bonding network. Interestingly, the binding of Colistin with the three mutant demonstrate unstable behavior as compared with WT+Colistin. The proposed drug-resistance mechanism will help to guide the development of PmrB drugs. These finding may give a new framework for developing novel drugs against the mutant version of PmrB.

Effects of urban areas on the diurnal cycle of temperature and precipitation in a global climate simulation

AbstractAnalyses of global climate model results for urban impacts on temperature and precipitation are rare. Previous analyses of the global Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model simulation results for 1985–2010 have revealed urban effects on minimum and maximum temperatures. Using the same dataset to derive time‐zone‐corrected three‐hourly local time period (LTP) data, averaged diurnal cycles of temperature and precipitation were calculated for grid cells with greater than 10% urban fraction (urban grid cells) globally. Three latitudinal bands were assessed: northern extratropics (NET, 274 urban grid cells), southern extratropics (SET, 39 urban grid cells), and the Tropics (26 urban grid cells). The largest statistically significant urban influences on temperature are consistently found at night, in agreement with many previous studies on urban heat islands. Signs of urban cooling were found for a few hours, from 09:00 to 15:00 LTP, most often in summer. Influences of urban areas on precipitation varied, with small increases and decreases in all latitudinal bands and seasons. For NET, increases were generally found. In the Tropics, increases were found from 21:00 to 09:00 LTP for all seasons except DJF, with decreases for all seasons from 15:00 to 18:00 LTP. In SET, all seasons had increases for 21:00 to 00:00 LTP and decreases for 15:00 to 18:00 LTP. DJF had decreases for all LTPs except 21:00 to 00:00 LTP and SON had increases for all times except 15:00 to 18:00 LTP. Differences in rainfall in the region surrounding the urban areas were broadly similar to local changes in NET. For the Tropics and SET, regional decreases were found for DJF and JJA, with a more varied pattern for other months. Regional effects appeared to be more restricted to near‐urban areas in the Tropics than in NET. The results indicate some influence of nearby urban areas on regional temperature and precipitation.

Heat stress and bleaching in corals: a bioenergetic model

AbstractThe coral-dinoflagellate endosymbiosis is based on nutrient exchanges that impact holobiont energetics. Of particular concern is the breakdown or dysbiosis of this partnership that is seen in response to elevated temperatures, where loss of symbionts through coral bleaching can lead to starvation and mortality. Here we extend a dynamic bioenergetic model of coral symbioses to explore the mechanisms by which temperature impacts various processes in the symbiosis and to enable simulational analysis of thermal bleaching. Our model tests the effects of two distinct mechanisms for how increased temperature impacts the symbiosis: 1) accelerated metabolic rates due to thermodynamics and 2) damage to the photosynthetic machinery of the symbiont caused by heat stress. Model simulations show that the model can capture key biological responses to different levels of increased temperatures. Moderately increased temperatures increase metabolic rates and slightly decrease photosynthesis. The slightly decreased photosynthesis rates cause the host to receive less carbon and share more nitrogen with the symbiont. This results in temporarily increased symbiont growth and a higher symbiont/host ratio. In contrast, higher temperatures cause a breakdown of the symbiosis due to escalating feedback that involves further reduction in photosynthesis and insufficient energy supply for $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2 concentration by the host. This leads to the accumulation of excess light energy and the generation of reactive oxygen species, eventually triggering symbiont expulsion and coral bleaching. Importantly, bleaching does not result from accelerated metabolic rates alone; it only occurs as a result of the photodamage mechanism due to its effect on nutrient cycling. Both higher light intensities and higher levels of DIN render corals more susceptible to heat stress. Conversely, heterotrophic feeding can increase the maximal temperature that can be tolerated by the coral. Collectively these results show that a bioenergetics model can capture many observed patterns of heat stress in corals, such as higher metabolic rates and higher symbiont/host ratios at moderately increased temperatures and symbiont expulsion at strongly increased temperatures.

On the suitability of rigorous coupled-wave analysis for fast optical force simulations

Abstract Optical force responses underpin nanophotonic actuator design, which requires a large number of force simulations to optimize structures. Commonly used computation methods, such as the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method, and finite element methods (FEM), are resource intensive and require large amounts of calculation time when multiple structures need to be
compared during optimization. This research demonstrates that performing optical force calculations on 2D-periodic structures using the rigorous coupled-wave analysis (RCWA) method is typically on the order of 10 times faster than other approaches and with sufficient accuracy to suit optical design purposes. Moreover, this speed increase is available on consumer grade laptops, avoiding the need for a high performance computing resource.

Optimization and Analysis of Flow Field Simulations Across Different Mach Regimes Using Discrete Numerical Methods

This article explores the development of flow field models in steady-state environments utilizing Euler equations and potential flow equations, with verification processes conducted using Python. The models demonstrate stability and high accuracy in low-velocity scenarios, capturing essential dynamics effectively. However, as the conditions transition to supersonic speeds, the models begin to exhibit increased errors. This discrepancy highlights the challenges faced in simulating high-speed aerodynamics accurately. The research underscores the importance of improving model fidelity in diverse Mach regimes, particularly in supersonic conditions where traditional methods struggle. Future research directions identified include the development of unsteady flow field models, which are crucial for dynamic analyses, optimization of grid structures for three-dimensional complex fields to improve computational efficiency, and the creation of extensive model libraries. These advancements aim to enhance the accuracy, reliability, and practicality of flow field simulations, extending their applicability in both academic studies and industry applications, particularly in aerospace engineering where precise flow modeling is critical.

The economic effects of tax structure transformation: A study based on the tax reform of China's hainan free trade port

Many developing countries use tax reform as a strategy to support national or regional development. China's tax reform of the Hainan Free Trade Port in 2025 serves this purpose. The reform replaces the existing VAT, consumption tax, vehicle purchase tax, urban maintenance and construction tax, and education fee ("four taxes and one fee") with a sales tax. Previous studies of tax structure reform have rarely addressed the economic impact of such a transition, and few sales tax studies have discussed the issue of optimal tax rates. To study the economic effects of the introduction of sales tax and to find the optimal tax rate, this paper uses the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to conduct simulation analyses. It is found that the sales tax rate should be 17.16 % to keep the fiscal revenue of Hainan Province more or less unchanged after the ‘four taxes and one fee’ are simplified into sales tax. The total economic volume and sales tax rate show an inverted ‘U’ type relationship, the optimal sales tax rate is about 9.79 %, and the tax rate of GDP, investment, employment growth of 3.82 %, 0.35 %, 3.41 %, respectively, the manufacturing industry and other industries in most of the different degrees of growth. Therefore, we suggest that the average sales tax rate of Hainan Free Trade Port should be around 9.79 %.

Subspace‐based distributed target detection method with small training data samples

AbstractDetecting distributed targets precisely in homogeneous environments has been a hot topic in radar signal processing. Generally, distributed targets are often modelled with subspace models of unknown coordinates, and clutter is modelled as the complex Gaussian distribution with zero mean and unknown covariance matrix, while covariance matrix is estimated with a set of training data without the target signal. However, in practice, the complexity of the external environment makes the training data that satisfy the condition of independent homogeneous distribution less available. Therefore, it is assumed that the covariance matrix of the clutter is persymmetric structure and the approach of dimensionality reduction using subspace transformations is introduced, two detectors based upon generalised likelihood ratio test criterion and Wald test criterion in homogeneous environments are proposed. Theoretical analyses indicate the constant false alarm rate characteristics of the two proposed detectors for unknown clutter covariance matrices. Simulation analyses indicate that the proposed detector works well even with fewer training data samples, and its detection performance outperforms that of existing contrast detectors.

Patient safety and quality improvement education in dermatology residency programs: a nationwide survey of program directors.

Patient Safety and Quality Improvement (PSQI) are key components of graduate medical training, as detailed by the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME), with specific requirements that residents participate in experiential learning in PSQI during residency training. This study aimed to analyze the breadth of available and required PSQI educational experiences across dermatology residency programs in the United States. The objective of this study was to characterize the scope of PSQI educational experiences across dermatology residency programs. We electronically surveyed program directors of all ACGME-accredited dermatology residency programs from September 2023 to March 2024. Responses to the survey were anonymously collected with Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap). Of the 145 dermatology programs surveyed, 37 program directors responded (25.5%). 89.2% of programs reported requiring residents to participate in PSQI educational experiences, with the most common being participation in a resident-led QI project (70.3%), which was also the most commonly available experience (91.2%). The least common required experience was observed simulated patient safety events and analyses. 83.8% of programs reported formal mechanisms to assess residents' competency in QI. This study highlights variation in PSQI experiences within dermatology residency programs across the United States. More than 10% of surveyed programs reported no required QI experiences during residency training despite ACGME program requirements. Additional gaps include variation in assessment of resident PSQI competencies. This study provides insight on the current landscape of PSQI education across dermatology residency programs and identifies opportunities to strengthen dermatology programs' PSQI educational offerings.

Design of gas control lane of 9# coal seam in Wuhushan Mine based on layer layout optimization

In order to address the issue of gas over limit in the upper corner of the working face of the 9# coal seam in Wuhushan Mine, a series of theoretical and numerical simulation analyses were conducted to evaluate the optimal configuration for the gas control lane of the 9# coal seam. In accordance with the "O" circle theory and the lithology of the overlying rock strata of the 9# coal seam, the height range of the fallout zone and fissure zone in the working face mining area was determined by employing empirical formulas. The change rule and distribution characteristics of the porosity of the fissure zone and the fall zone in the mining area were analyzed based on the characteristics of rock movement and fall. The determination method was also provided. The numerical simulation software was employed to simulate and analyze the gas concentration field in the air-mining zone under conditions of no extraction and six distinct layer positions of the gas control lane. The optimal layer position of the gas control lane in the 9# coal seam was determined and subsequently implemented in the field. The results demonstrate that the overlying rock layer in the 9# coal seam exhibits a height range of 6.86 ~ 11.26 m, while the fissure zone displays a height range of 30.11 ~ 41.31 m. When the gas control road is situated in close proximity to the working face, the gas concentration field exhibits a markedly low concentration. When the distance between the gas control lane and the return airway of the working face is 20 m and the distance from the top of the coal seam is 20 m, the gas concentration in the upper corner and the return airway is 0.35% and 0.26%, respectively. These values are close to the lowest concentration observed in the layout scheme. Additionally, the gas extraction concentration and the pure volume of the gas control lane are 23.7% and 38.3 m3 min−1, respectively. These values represent the highest concentrations observed in the various layout schemes. The application of the gas management lane in the field, based on the numerical simulation results, demonstrated a successful extraction effect, which was consistent with the numerical simulation results. This effectively managed the issue of an over-limit of gas in the upper corner of the working face of the 9# coal seam.

Insights into the Therapeutic Potential of Active Ingredients of Citri Reticulatae Pericarpium in Combatting Sarcopenia: An In Silico Approach

Sarcopenia is a systemic medical disorder characterized by a gradual decline in muscular strength, function, and skeletal muscle mass. Currently, there is no medication specifically approved for the treatment of this condition. Therefore, the identification of new pharmacological targets may offer opportunities for the development of novel therapeutic strategies. The current in silico study investigated the active ingredients and the mode of action of Citri Reticulatae Pericarpium (CRP) in addressing sarcopenia. The active ingredients of CRP and the potential targets of CRP and sarcopenia were determined using various databases. The STRING platform was utilized to construct a protein–protein interaction network, and the key intersecting targets were enriched through the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) and Gene Ontology (GO) analyses. Molecular docking was used to determine the binding interactions of the active ingredients with the hub targets. The binding affinities obtained from molecular docking were subsequently validated through molecular dynamics simulation analyses. Five active ingredients and 45 key intersecting targets between CRP and sarcopenia were identified. AKT1, IL6, TP53, MMP9, ESR1, NFKB1, MTOR, IGF1R, ALB, and NFE2L2 were identified as the hub targets with the highest degree node in the protein–protein interaction network. The results indicated that the targets were mainly enriched in PIK3-AKT, HIF-1, and longevity-regulating pathways. The active ingredients showed a greater interaction affinity with the hub targets, as indicated by the results of molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulations. Our findings suggest that the active ingredients of Citri Reticulatae Pericarpium, particularly Sitosterol and Hesperetin, have the potential to improve sarcopenia by interacting with AKT1 and MTOR proteins through the PI3K-AKT signaling pathway.

Event-triggered fuzzy adaptive control for a class of MIMO discrete-time nonlinear systems with uncertain control gains

ABSTRACT An event-triggered output control technique is devised for the output anticipated trajectory tracking controller design problem for a class of unknown multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) discrete-time nonlinear systems. A parameterized state observer is established to estimate the non-measurable states accurately by utilizing the filter states and the gradient-based fuzzy parameter updated laws. A series of fuzzy filters are proposed to evaluate the immeasurable states, and a filter state observer is constructed to overcome the state estimation that is triggered by the unknown control gains and the coupling of control input. One non-zero parameter is added to a fuzzy logic system (FLS) to reduce the computed burden of the controller with several updating laws. A FLS with one non-zero parameter is introduced to reduce the calculated burden of the controller with fewer updating laws. The proposed method reduces the computed burden and communication consumption while realizing the immeasurable state estimations, guaranteeing the ultimately uniformly bounded (UUB) of the closed-loop system, and achieving a good tracking impact. Finally, simulation analyses are used as a numerical example to confirm that the proposed control strategy is valid.

Exchange rate fluctuations and industrial production in Malaysia: evidence from dynamic simulated ARDL analysis

Contemporary literature argues that the exchange rate serves as an important instrument of industrial policy to boost economic growth. However, it is difficult to design effective exchange rate policies owing to the uncertainty shrouding the outcomes of the exchange rate movement for industrial growth. Therefore, this study uses a dynamic simulated autoregressive distributive lags approach to study the impact of positive and negative changes in the real effective exchange rate on industrial production of Malaysia for the period 1970–2022. We employ an extended production function to study this relationship by incorporating capital, labour and globalisation as additional explanatory variables. The findings suggest that positive (negative) changes in real effective exchange rate are followed by positive (negative) changes in economic growth in the long run. Furthermore, positive changes in capital affect economic growth positively and significantly in both the short and long run. Finally, positive (negative) movement in labour and globalization positively (negatively) and significantly affect industrial production in the long run respectively. Policymakers should depreciate currency to expand industrial production in Malaysia. Moreover, to boost industrial production, short-term loans should be introduced for capital accumulation.