Ripple Effect Analysis Research Articles

대구·경북지역 핵심 제조산업의 지역경제 파급효과 분석

대구·경북지역 핵심 제조산업의 지역경제 파급효과 분석

부산지역 사회인 야구리그의 경제적 파급효과 분석

The purpose of this study aims to identify the economic impact value of the community baseball club leagues, a representative daily sport in Busan, and present basic data for the development and revitalization of the leagues. A survey was conducted on 404 individual participants in the baseball leagues, and based on the valid data the production-inducing effects, value-added effects, and employment-inducing effects were identified using the index of 2015 input-output analysis. The results of this study are as follows. The production-inducing effect of the community baseball club leagues was about 33.46 billion won, the value-added effect was about 13.4 billion won, and the employment-inducing effect was 368.7 people/1 billion won. The economic ripple effect analysis data of the community baseball leagues in Busan presented in this study, is considered meaningful in revitalizing the local economy as well as local sports.

Containing China versus Choking the Asian Economy

Purpose - Although many existing studies on the US-China hegemonic conflict and decoupling have been published, most of them are qualitative and use descriptive analysis methods. Papers that quantitatively analyzed decoupling mainly estimate the effect of a tariff increase. However, this paper quantitatively analyzed the ripple effect by focusing on decoupling technology spillover between the United States and China. And, for the first time, it was suggested that the blocking of technology spillover could give a fatal blow to the East Asian economy as well as China.
 Design/methodology - The United States is pursuing decoupling with China, primarily in goods trade and blocking technology transfer. This paper sets up various scenarios and uses three computational general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyze the overall ripple effects of decoupling. A paper using the three CGE models for decoupling ripple effect analysis has not yet been published.
 Findings - Decoupling will hit the economies of regions with close economic ties to China more than others. According to simulation results of this study, the Chinese economy may suffer severe damage that is difficult to recover from, and the economies of Asian countries are predicted to deteriorate to the point of being choked.
 Originality/value - Existing papers that assessed the effect of decoupling mostly focus on estimating the effect itself through tariff hikes. This paper is meaningful in that it comprehensively analyzed decoupling by adding the effect of technology spillover blockade. In addition, another meaning can be found in that it quantified for the first time that it will deal a huge blow to the extent of choking the East Asian economy as well as China.

Analysis of ripple effect and its impact on supply chain resilience: a general framework and a case study on agri-food supply chain during the COVID-19 pandemic

Analysis of ripple effect and its impact on supply chain resilience: a general framework and a case study on agri-food supply chain during the COVID-19 pandemic

A dynamic approach to supply chain reconfiguration and ripple effect analysis in an epidemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated the unprecedented challenges of ensuring the continuity of operations in a supply chain as suppliers’ and their suppliers stop producing due the spread of infection, leading to a degradation of downstream customer service levels in a ripple effect. In this paper, we contextualize a dynamic approach and propose an optimal control model for supply chain reconfiguration and ripple effect analysis integrated with an epidemic dynamics model. We provide supply chain managers with the optimal choice over a planning horizon among subsets of interchangeable suppliers and corresponding orders; this will maximize demand satisfaction given their prices, lead times, exposure to infection, and upstream suppliers’ risk exposure. Numerical illustrations show that our prescriptive forward-looking model can help reconfigure a supply chain and mitigate the ripple effect due to reduced production because of suppliers’ infected workers. A risk aversion factor incorporates a measure of supplier risk exposure at the upstream echelons. We examine three scenarios: (a) infection limits the capacity of suppliers, (b) the pandemic recedes but not at the same pace for all suppliers, and (c) infection waves affect the capacity of some suppliers, while others are in a recovery phase. We illustrate through a case study how our model can be immediately deployed in manufacturing or retail supply chains since the data are readily accessible from suppliers and health authorities. This work opens new avenues for prescriptive models in operations management and the study of viable supply chains by combining optimal control and epidemiological models.

국내 ICT산업의 융합 파급효과 비교분석: 자율주행차 산업 중심으로

자율주행차로 대표되는 ICT 산업과 자동차 산업 사이의 융합은 인간의 삶의 질을 향상시킬 뿐만 아니라 광범위한 전후방 연관 산업과 연계되어 있어 4차 산업혁명분야에서 가장 주목 받는 산업 중 하나이다. 자율주행차 산업정책의 실효성 제고를 위해 본 연구는 자율주행차 산업을 구성하는 다양한 하위 섹터들의 산업간 파급효과를 정량적으로 분석하여 경제적 잠재성을 비교평가 하였다. 이를 위해 자율주행차 산업을 후방 섹터, 본 섹터 및 수요 섹터로 구분하고 국내 투입산출 데이터를 이용하여 산업연관분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과 자율주행차 산업은 산업생산 측면에서 평균적으로 서비스업에 비해 높은 생산유발효과를, 제조업에 비해 높은 부가가치유발효과를 보이는 것으로 규명되었고, 상거래 관련 산업에 미치는 파급효과가 커 운송 및 물류 혁신이 동반될 경우 상거래 전반에 걸쳐 획기적인 변화를 유발할 수 있는 잠재성을 확인하였다. 하위 섹터별 경제적 파급효과의 경우 자율주행차 본 섹터는 생산 부문에서, 수요 섹터는 노동 부문에서 상대적으로 높은 수준의 타 산업 견인효과를 가진 것으로 확인되었다. 또한, 국내 ICT 산업은 자율주행차 산업 내 후방 섹터의 핵심으로서 본 섹터 및 수요 섹터에 비하여 상대적으로 후방견인효과는 낮지만 중간재로서 광범위하게 투입되고, 자율주행차 인프라 산업과 밀접한 관련이 있음이 확인되었다. 이는 자율주행차 산업이 발전하기 위해서는 자율주행을 위한 에너지공급 체계 및 유지보수 체계 역시 ICT 기반으로 지능화와 고도화가 병행될 필요가 있음을 시사한다.

A Study on the Economic Ripple Effect Analysis and Development Plan of the establishment of a Blockchain Digital Asset Exchange for the Creation of a Financial Innovation Ecosystem: Fousing on Busan Metropolitan City

Purpose - This study examines how much economic ripple effect occurs by investing Busan Metropolitan City in construction and operation costs with a budget of 75 billion won to establish a Digital Asset Exchange. In addition, to the study presents a development plan through the establishment of an exchange.
 Design/Methodology/Approach - In order to analyze the economic ripple effect for the establishment of a digital exchange in the Busan, we intend to utilize the 2015 regional industry association table announced by the Bank of Korea. Through this study, we derive the production inducement effect, the value-added inducement effect, the import inducement effect, and the employment inducement effect, and examine how much output is induced with an input of 75 billion.
 Findings - With the Busan budget of 75 billion, the economic ripple effect showed more than 100 billion and more than 1,000 jobs in the short term.
 Research Implications - As a development plan, first, a special regulatory exception should be requested. Second, it is necessary to establish operational governance. Third, it is necessary to divide the scope of investors and investment targets into two stages from an asset point of view, implement them step by step and accumulate know-how.
 Research Implications - Detail.

Blackout and supply chains: Cross-structural ripple effect, performance, resilience and viability impact analysis.

Increased electricity consumption along with the transformations of the energy systems and interruptions in energy supply can lead to a blackout, i.e., the total loss of power in an area (or a set of areas) of a longer duration. This disruption can be fatal for production, logistics, and retail operations. Depending on the scope of the affected areas and the blackout duration, supply chains (SC) can be impacted to different extent. In this study, we perform a simulation analysis using anyLogistix digital SC twin to identify potential impacts of blackouts on SCs for scenarios of different severity. Distinctively, we triangulate the design and evaluation of experiments with consideration of SC performance, resilience, and viability. The results allow for some generalizations. First, we conceptualize blackout as a special case of SC risks which is distinctively characterized by a simultaneous shutdown of several SC processes, disruption propagations (i.e., the ripple effect), and a danger of viability losses for entire ecosystems. Second, we demonstrate how simulation-based methodology can be used to examine and predict the impacts of blackouts, mitigation and recovery strategies. The major observation from the simulation experiments is that the dynamics of the power loss propagation across different regions, the blackout duration, simultaneous unavailability of supply and logistics along with the unpredictable customer behavior might become major factors that determine the blackout impact and influence selection of an appropriate recovery strategy. The outcomes of this research can be used by decision-makers to predict the operative and long-term impacts of blackouts on the SCs and viability and develop mitigation and recovery strategies. The paper is concluded by summarizing the most important insights and outlining future research agenda toward SC viability, reconfigurable SC, multi-structural SC dynamics, intertwined supply networks, and cross-structural ripple effects.

A Socioeconomic Ripple Effect Analysis of Integrative National Construction Standards Codification Efforts: System Dynamics Approach

South Korea established the National Construction Standards Center to efficiently manage the national construction standards and orchestrate various efforts such as the development and export of the unified code system, and the conduction of code reform research for securing safety and ever increasing disaster prevention of buildings and infrastructure. Significant national budgets must be put in place to develop, promote, and continually improve the unified construction code system. In order to confirm the appropriateness of this continuous investment, this article intends to estimate the socioeconomic ripple effect of the coordinated efforts over the next 30 years by developing a hybrid method that combines an analytical hierarchical process and system dynamics (SD). In this article, the interacting behavior of the developed SD model is illustrated parametrically. We found that the center's integrative codification efforts including the development and diffusion of the unified code system has the effect of offsetting the decreasing national construction budget. We also found that the Monte Carlo multivariate simulation-based uncertainty analysis on the developed SD model is well-suited for effectively quantifying and integrating various benefits to empower decision makers; in particular, providing information both on the mean and the most conservative socioeconomic ripple effects over the long term.

Economic ripple effect analysis of using wood grown in Oita Prefecture, Japan, to build conventional wooden houses

Economic ripple effect analysis of using wood grown in Oita Prefecture, Japan, to build conventional wooden houses

Analysis of resilience strategies and ripple effect in blockchain-coordinated supply chains: An agent-based simulation study

Resilience enables supply chains to reduce their proneness to disruptions and recover faster. Many existing strategies to strengthen the resilience of supply chains are facilitated by the use of digital technology. Blockchain, as one of the promising innovative technologies, enables a transparent, secure, and timely data exchange and automation via smart contracts. In this paper, we discuss the impact of blockchain technology on supply chain risk management and, in particular, on supply chain resilience. We identify potential risk-related blockchain application scenarios and examine their impact on the existing resilience strategies. We explore the impact of the most promising applications with respect to resilience by using an agent-based simulation model of a complex supply network affected by disruptions. The theoretical analysis reveals a promotion of supply chain resilience strategies, especially if smart contracts are used for risk-related collaboration. The simulation study indicates an increase in resilience if the underlying collaboration is based on time-efficient processes: The propagation of disruptions, the network recovery time, and total costs can be substantially reduced. However, depending on the duration of the disruption, negative effects can occur if process efficiency is insufficient. From our investigations, we derive insights for managers who are interested in practical implementation.

Bayesian networks for supply chain risk, resilience and ripple effect analysis: A literature review

In the broad sense, the Bayesian networks (BN) are probabilistic graphical models that possess unique methodical features to model dependencies in complex networks, such as forward and backward propagation (inference) of disruptions. BNs have transitioned from an emerging topic to a growing research area in supply chain (SC) resilience and risk analysis. As a result, there is an acute need to review existing literature to ascertain recent developments and uncover future areas of research. Despite the increasing number of publications on BNs in the domain of SC uncertainty, an extensive review on their application to SC risk and resilience is lacking. To address this gap, we analyzed research articles published in peer-reviewed academic journals from 2007 to 2019 using network analysis, visualization-based scientometric analysis, and clustering analysis. Through this study, we contribute to literature by discussing the challenges of current research, and, more importantly, identifying and proposing future research directions. The results of our survey show that further debate on the theory and application of BNs to SC resilience and risk management is a significant area of interest for both academics and practitioners. The applications of BNs, and their conjunction with machine learning algorithms to solve big data SC problems relating to uncertainty and risk, are also discussed.

Economic Ripple Effect Analysis of New Converging Industry: Focusing on Inter-Industrial Analysis of Fintech Industry in South Korea, China and the United States

The Fintech industry is the convergence of the financial industry and the ICT (Information and Communications Technology) industry. It not only replaces the services provided by traditional financial services such as remittances, settlements, and asset management, but also creates new industries combined with ICT technology such as Cloud funding, P2P, and Internet Professional Bank. Therefore, this research focuses on the economic ripple effect of the Fintech industry on the national economy by inter-industrial analysis. At the same time, in order to learn the different circumstances of Fintech industry worldwide, this study conducted comparative research on Fintech leading countries in the United States and China with South Korea. All the economic ripple effects of South Korea, China, and the United States Fintech industry are relatively low among all industries, and the industrial characteristics are analyzed to be 'intermediate primary production' type industry. This study, as the first attempt, analyzes the current economic impact of Fintech in each country, and inspires future development direction of Fintech industrial policy.

8차 전력수급기본계획에 따른 신재생에너지 발전비용과 경제적 파급효과 분석

8차 전력수급기본계획에 따른 신재생에너지 발전비용과 경제적 파급효과 분석

철도사업 유형별 산업연관분석을 이용한 사회경제적 파급효과 분석

철도사업 유형별 산업연관분석을 이용한 사회경제적 파급효과 분석

Analysis of the Economic Ripple Effect of the United States on the World due to Future Climate Change

AbstractSolomon Hsiang's study, which was recently published in Science, has caused extensive discussion by indicating that future climate change may exert influences on the agricultural yield, labor supply, and energy demand, among others of the United States. Based on the above study, we use an optimized input‐output model to evaluate the economic ripple effect (ERE) of the United States on the world due to climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 with different increases in the annual mean temperature (AMT; 1, 1.5, and 2°C) between 2020 and 2100. The results show that if a loss of gross domestic product of 0.88% occurs with a 1°C AMT increase in the United States, the ERE of approximately 0.12% will be generated onto the global gross domestic product; with a 2°C increase, the ERE will triple. The time variation trend of the ERE conforms to the future variations in AMT. The degree of this effect on other regions of the world is closely related to the trade links between the United States and economic aggregates. Among these regions, Canada shows the greatest impact, followed by China. The ERE that China suffers may increase by 4.5 times as the AMT in the United States increases from 1 to 2°C. In cold regions, the benefit from global warming will decrease due to the ERE from other regions, which will inhibit their economic development. This paper aims to provide new perspectives and data‐based support for regions around the world to cope with climate change and to develop policies by studying the ERE behind international trade.

Benefits and Beneficiaries of the Oklahoma Mesonet: A Multisectoral Ripple Effect Analysis

Abstract Since the Oklahoma Mesonet (the state’s automated mesoscale weather station network) was established in 1994, it has served a number of diverse groups and provided public services to foster weather preparedness, education, and public safety, while also supporting decision-making in agricultural production and wildland fire management. With 121 monitoring stations across the state, the Oklahoma Mesonet has developed an array of technologies to observe a variety of atmospheric and soil variables in 5- to 30-min intervals. These consistent observations have been especially critical for predicting and preparing for extreme weather events like droughts, floods, ice storms, and severe convective storms as well as for development of value-added tools. The tools, outreach programs, and mesoscale data have been widely utilized by the general public, state decision-makers, public safety officials, K–12 community, agricultural sector, and researchers, thus generating wide societal and economic benefits to many groups. Based on practical application examples of weather information provided by the Oklahoma Mesonet, this paper analyzes both benefits generated by Oklahoma Mesonet information to the public and decision-makers and ripple effects (spreading amplified outcomes/implications) of those benefits in the short and long term. The paper further details ongoing and anticipated Oklahoma Mesonet innovations as a response to changing needs for weather-related information over time, especially as a result of technological developments and weather variability.

Simulation-based ripple effect modelling in the supply chain

In light of low-frequency/high-impact disruptions, the ripple effect has recently been introduced into academic literature on supply chain management. The ripple effect in the supply chain results from disruption propagation from the initial disruption point to the supply, production and distribution networks. While optimisation modelling dominates this research field, the potential of simulation modelling still remains under-explored. The objective of this study is to reveal research gaps that can be closed with the help of simulation modelling. First, recent literature on both optimisation and simulation modelling is analysed. Second, a simulation model for multi-stage supply chain design with consideration of capacity disruptions and experimental results is presented in order to depict major areas of simulation application to the ripple effect modelling. Based on both literature analysis and the modelling example, managerial insights and future research areas are identified in regard to simulation modelling application to the ripple effect analysis in the supply chain. The paper concludes by summarising the most important insights and outlining a future research agenda.

A Hybrid Approach for Ripple Effect Analysis of Software Evolution Activities

A Hybrid Approach for Ripple Effect Analysis of Software Evolution Activities

Change Impact Identification in Object-Oriented System: Dependence Graph Approach

The development of software products consumes a lot of time and resources. On the other hand, these development costs are lower than maintenance costs, which represent a major concern, specially, for systems designed with recent technologies. Systems modification should be taken rigorously, and change effects must be considered. The need to offer tools allowing on the one hand, to explain the mechanisms of changes at the source code level, and on the other hand, to reduce the effort as well as the cost of maintenance, is affirmed more and more. We propose in this article an approach based on dependence graph to identify change impact of objectoriented systems. The analysis of change ripple effect is made on the dependence graph representing the considered system. The identification at graph level of maximum range of change ripple effect will enable us to know consequences change at code source of system. This knowledge will enable us to estimate the change cost and to make a compromise between the various suggested changes. Finally, to concretize this study we produced a tool and tested our approach on certain systems.