Analysis Of Longitudinal Profiles Research Articles

Late Quaternary Drainage Rearrangement Prevents the Vegetation Development in the La Tatacoa Intermontane Basin of the Colombian Andes

The Tatacoa Desert (TD) is a Cenozoic basin between the Central and Eastern Cordilleras in the southern Colombian Andes. Its sparse vegetation and Badlands morphology resemble a semi-arid environment, despite receiving ∼1,300 mm of mean annual precipitation. Based on optically stimulated luminescence dating in two fluvial terraces and drainage morphometric analysis, we propose that such “aridification” was imposed by a drainage reorganization during the Late Pleistocene. No river coming from the neighboring mountains flows into the TD. This makes the Tatacoa rivers unable to balance the evapotranspiration effect, causing a surficial water deficit. A fluvial terrace (TAT-2) works as a divide between the Tatacoa catchments and the Cabrera River, the latter coming from the Eastern Cordillera and bounding the TD towards the north. Paleocurrent measurements on its sedimentary lithic clasts point to a W-NW-directed flow into the TD. Thus, OSL ages around 74.1 ± 7.0 ka in this terrace suggest the TD was drained by an Eastern Cordillera catchment during the Late Pleistocene. At the western end of the TD, a dissected fluvial terrace (TAT-1) lying 80 m above the Magdalena River ages between 6.3 ± 1.5 and 7.7 ± 1.5 ka, representing the Holocene incision rates of 10.8 ± 0.3 mm/y. Coupled OSL data and river longitudinal profile analysis show a high susceptibility to erosion of the Tatacoa rocks and estimate incision rates ranging from 2–5 mm/y to 10–20 mm/y within the TD. The higher rates are concentrated along knickpoints related to anticlines and thrust faults. Thus, a northward shift of the Cabrera River and a westward migration of the Magdalena Valley have drastically reduced the surficial water availability in the Tatacoa and the development of vegetation, increasing erodibility. Potential climatic and tectonic drivers include 1) terrace accumulation during the wet periods of Marine Isotope Stage 5A and 1; 2) fault-induced incision of the Magdalena River in the NW, which would have favored northward migration of tributaries such as the Cabrera River; and 3) activity on the Baraya thrust fault, which would have prevented rivers from the Eastern Cordillera to enter the desert.

A Longitudinal 1H NMR-Based Metabolic Profile Analysis of Urine from Hospitalized Premature Newborns Receiving Enteral and Parenteral Nutrition.

Preterm newborns are extremely vulnerable to morbidities, complications, and death. Preterm birth is a global public health problem due to its socioeconomic burden. Nurturing preterm newborns is a critical medical issue because they have limited nutrient stores and it is difficult to establish enteral feeding, which leads to inadequate growth frequently associated with poor neurodevelopmental outcomes. Parenteral nutrition (PN) provides nutrients to preterm newborns, but its biochemical effects are not completely known. To study the effect of PN treatment on preterm newborns, an untargeted metabolomic 1H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) assay was performed on 107 urine samples from 34 hospitalized patients. Multivariate data (Principal Component Analysis, PCA, Orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis OPLS-DA, parallel factor analysis PARAFAC-2) and univariate analyses were used to identify the association of specific spectral data with different nutritional types (NTs) and gestational ages. Our results revealed changes in the metabolic profile related to the NT, with the tricarboxylic acid cycle and galactose metabolic pathways being the most impacted pathways. Low citrate and succinate levels, despite higher glucose relative urinary concentrations, seem to constitute the metabolic profile found in the studied critically ill preterm newborns who received PN, indicating an energetic dysfunction that must be taken into account for better nutritional management.

Uncovering the Controls on Fluvial Bedrock Erodibility and Knickpoint Expression: A High‐Resolution Comparison of Bedrock Properties Between Knickpoints and Non‐Knickpoint Reaches

AbstractBedrock erodibility exerts a fundamental control on fluvial incision, and therefore on the evolution of entire landscapes. However, the roles and relative significance of specific bedrock properties like rock strength and discontinuity spacing in setting erodibility remain poorly understood. As a result, erodibility is often overlooked or oversimplified in numerical and field‐based investigations of landscape evolution processes, leading to misinterpretation of channel profile convexities (i.e., knickpoints) in studies seeking to infer uplift or baselevel histories from longitudinal profile analyses. Here, we investigate the controls on fluvial bedrock erodibility and knickpoint expression by conducting detailed surveys of 21 lithologic knickpoints and non‐knickpoint reaches (representing end‐member bedrock erodibility cases) and corresponding bedrock properties from small channels in the south‐central Appalachian Mountains. We use binary logistic regression of field data to test the relative strength of rock strength and discontinuity spacing as predictors of knickpoint occurrence, and therefore their relative impact on fluvial bedrock erodibility. We find that discontinuity spacing more strongly influences bedrock erodibility in this setting, where both rock strength and discontinuity spacing vary widely, confirming for the first time quantitatively the hypothesis that discontinuities exert a dominant control on fluvial erodibility. We also find that knickpoint expression is unique to a given stratigraphic interval, implying that knickpoint morphology is intimately linked to local conditions and therefore effectively unpredictable without detailed field measurements. Finally, because all 21 of our study knickpoints occur within a single geologic unit, our results illustrate that intra‐unit heterogeneity must be accounted for when considering lithologic influence on channel profile convexities.

Importance of winds, freshwater discharge and retention time in the space–time variability of phytoplankton biomass in a shallow microtidal estuary

In the present study, we analyze the effects of the hydrodynamics induced by action of wind and river discharge on the space–time variability of chlorophyll a concentration in estuary of Patos Lagoon. The study was carried out through the analysis of time series of winds, currents, salinity and chlorophyll a concentration, all measured in the narrow channel that connects the lagoon to Atlantic Ocean. In addition, we also analyze spatial data collected during eight cruises performed in the estuarine area during 2012. Results reveal two patterns of maximum of chlorophyll a concentration in the time series. The most prominent peak, was related to microalgae resuspension due to strong inflow currents. The second pattern, indicated by a less intense peak that occurs after seaward flows, at time salinity starts to decrease. The analysis of longitudinal estuarine profiles suggests an increase in chlorophyll a after saltwater intrusion up to 50 km inside the estuary associated to vertical stabilization caused by freshwater input from the only nearby tributary. Results also indicate that the peaks of chlorophyll a are linked to longer retention time and the vertical salinity stratification of water column.

Life course associations between smoking and depressive symptoms. A 30-year Finnish follow-up study

Background While the association between smoking and depressive symptoms has been studied quite extensively, only little is known whether the association changes and how the trajectories of smoking and depressive symptoms are intertwined during the life course. In this population-based study, we examined these associations from young adulthood to middle age. Methods Participants of a Finnish cohort study (N = 1955) were addressed at ages 22, 32, 42 and 52 using postal questionnaires including questions of daily smoking and depressive symptoms (the short 13-item Beck Depression Inventory). Linear and logistic regression analyses and longitudinal latent class and profile analyses were used. Results The percentages of daily smokers decreased, while levels of depressive symptoms increased among both women and men from age 22 to 52 years. Daily smoking was associated with higher levels of depressive symptoms between ages 22 and 42, while not at age 52. Associations among men prevailed also in the adjusted models. Four life course trajectories of daily smoking (non-smokers, quitters, persistent smokers, and late starters) and four depressive symptoms (low, increasing/moderate, decreasing/moderate, and high) were identified. In the adjusted models, persistent daily smokers and late starters had significantly higher risk of belonging to the high depressive symptoms profile in men, but not in women. Conclusions Compared to women the associations between daily smoking and depressive symptoms seem more robust among men during adulthood. Especially those men smoking persistently from young adulthood to middle age have an increased risk of high depressive symptoms trajectory during the life course.

PIRATARIA FLUVIAL NA SERRA DO ESPIGÃO: DIVISÓRIA DOS RIOS URUGUAI E IGUAÇU-AMÉRICA DO SUL

Stream capture is a drainage rearrangement where a flux transference occurs and a contribution area from a drainage basin is incorporated to another. It is about expanding a river system over another one, caused by erosive advantage earned by conditioning factors such as lithostructure, pluviometric regime, topographic gradient, and base level. However, in the southern region of Brazil, a rare dynamic of stream piracy was verified between the drainage basins of the Uruguay and Iguazu (Paraná) rivers. Stream captures were observed along the Serra of Espigão, part of the drainage divide between the two basins. Still, it was not possible to identify which basin was advancing over the other. This paper investigated the occurrence of stream captures, identifying which factors are responsible for this atypical stream dynamic. Mapping the stream captures by remote sensing and further validation with fieldwork, it was verified that there is stream piracy for both sides of the drainage divide. Still, it is not clear which basin is behaving more aggressively. A longitudinal profile analysis of the channels involved in the stream captures showed a local control in the drainage network. This control sets a local base level to the Iguazu river tributaries. It indicates the lithostructural limit between two different geological units: the Serra Geral group basalts and the Botucatu formation sandstones. Depending on the geographic location of this base level, channels that drain to the Iguazu (Paraná) river become more aggressive or less aggressive than the ones that drain to the Uruguai basin, and so they capture or lose area for the other basin. Therefore, it is impossible to identify a river basin that exclusively pirates the other, prevailing, in this case, a mutual competition between the Uruguai and Iguazu (Paraná) rivers basins. This fact highlights the significance of local base levels to promote stream capture processes.

An Early Holocene river blockage event on the western boundary of the Namche Barwa Syntaxis, southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Late Quaternary river blockage events in the mountainous regions of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, characterized by steep topographies and deeply-incised valleys, have commonly been triggered by tectonic and glacial activity. In this study, we described the geomorphological and sedimentological characteristics of a fluvial-lacustrine sedimentary sequence belonging to a dammed paleolake that formed along the Dongjiu River at the terminus of the Lulang Fault, on the western boundary of the Namche Barwa Syntaxis. Eight main lithofacies associations are proposed that represent four main paleoenvironments: a distal lacustrine environment, i.e. representing a lake distal environment; a lake margin environment; an ice-contact lacustrine environment; and a fluvial environment. 14C and OSL dating results indicate that the paleolake formed at least between ~7.1–3.6 ka. The paleolake covered ~2.27 km2 and contained a water volume of ~0.09 km3, with the water surface lying at an altitude of 2590 m above sea level (asl). The soft-sediment deformations induced by a paleoseismic event in the environs of the Lulang River nearby during the early Holocene, synchronous with the rock avalanche which dammed the Dongjiu River. We would therefore suggest that such a damming event might have been triggered by a paleoearthquake. Steepness index analysis of longitudinal profiles indicates that the paleodam caused by a landslide across the Dongjiu River was unable to preserve the stability of knickpoint, a migration that can potentially be related to a high river erosion rate.

Late Quaternary activity of the Qingchuan Fault, eastern Tibetan Plateau margin: Insights from stream channel offsets and catchment erosion

The Qingchuan Fault (QCF) is the main fault of the northeastern segment of the Longmenshan Fault zone (LMSFZ) on the eastern Tibetan Plateau boundary. The QCF accommodates ongoing deformation in the eastern Tibetan Plateau; however, its fault motion and potential seismic risk are still debated. This study combines a systematic analysis of deflected stream channels along the fault using 10-m digital elevation models with field investigations and measurements of the cosmogenic 10Be-derived erosion rates. The degree of channel deflection due to the interaction between strike-slip motion and channel growth processes is analyzed, followed by a quantitative extraction of the actual tectonic offsets and a calculation of the erosion rates. The long-term average strike-slip rates calculated from channel offsets range from 0.4 ± 0.1 to 1.7 ± 0.1 mm/a along the fault, with those in the southwestern section lower than those in the central section. Such differences may be attributed to slip partitioning of the northeastern extension of the Yingxiu–Beichuan Fault. In addition, analysis of stream longitudinal profiles and along-fault topographic variations illustrate that the small thrust component of the QCF decreases to the northeast, and a minor normal component exists at its northeastern end. The distributions of strike-slip and vertical-slip motions of the QCF indicate that fault slip of the central LMSFZ propagates to the northeast across the Minshan uplift and continues to slip along the QCF. Moreover, thrusting of the southern-central segment of the LMSFZ and dextral strike-slip faulting of the QCF may both accommodate complex deformation related to eastward expansion of the Tibetan Plateau. These findings have implications for constraining potential seismic hazards and understanding characteristics of the regional tectonic deformation.

ANÁLISE MORFOMÉTRICA DO RELEVO DA REGIÃO HIDROGRÁFICA DA VÁRZEA – ALTO RIO URUGUAI (RS)

Este trabalho apresenta resultados relativos à análise e interpretação de dados morfométricos e observacionais da região hidrográfica do rio da Várzea – norte do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul –, no contexto da alta bacia do rio Uruguai. O objetivo foi avaliar se os índices morfométricos analisados são indicativos ou não de maturidade do relevo e de influência tectônica na região. A metodologia utilizada baseia-se em uma abordagem morfoestrutural por meio de análise de perfis longitudinais de canal e topográficos de varredura, de parâmetros morfométricos e de superfícies de isobase. Dentre os principais resultados apontados destacam-se: (i) curvas hipsométricas predominantemente convexas e representativas de uma morfologia que passa por ativa desnudação; (ii) uma onda erosiva remontante na direção sul da região hidrográfica que amplia a desnudação dos planaltos superiores (Planalto das Missões e dos Campos Gerais); (iii) a elaboração das escarpas erosivas, a incisão dos vales e a elaboração da superfície do Planalto Dissecado do rio Uruguai onde se concentram os maiores declives; (iv) na contraposição ao mapeamento geomorfológico da região constatou-se a coincidência das compressões de isolinhas (anomalias topográficas) com os limites entre os compartimentos planálticos da região. A morfogênese desse relevo é coerente com a atuação de fatores estruturais de caráter tectônico que fizeram com que houvesse um encaixamento do rio Uruguai produzindo uma onda erosiva remontante que se expressa na rede de drenagem.
 Palavras-chave: morfologia estrutural, perfil longitudinal de canal, dissecação fluvial

Fluvial response to active tectonics: analysis of DEM-derived longitudinal profiles in the Rangit River Basin, Eastern Himalayas, India

The Himalayan Mountain Range has originated from the ongoing collision of the Eurasian and the Indo-Australian plates since the Paleogene. It is widely accepted that this tectonically-driven uplift is still continuing, as reflected by a large number of earthquakes in the area. Apart from the sub-surface and geophysical signatures, the surficial geomorphic markers deserve due attention. Fluvial systems, which preserve the evidence of the past and present tectonic perturbations on the surface, have often been investigated to assess the imprints of uplift in a region. Sensitive to long-term tectonic, structural and climatic regimes, the general forms of the longitudinal profile and its derivatives have been analysed across the globe for determining the varying roles of tectonics, litho-structure and climate. This article assesses the degree of tectonic and lithological control on the drainage network of the Rangit Basin in the Eastern Himalayas. One of the important characteristics of the studied basin is that the Main Central Thrust (MCT), which is located between the Greater Himalayas and the Lesser Himalayas, divides the basin into two distinct domains. Longitudinal profiles and their derivatives of 16 major tributaries of the Rangit River were extracted from the ALOS–PALSAR DEM and analysed. The controls on this Himalayan river were evaluated based on investigations of longitudinal profile shapes, stream gradient (SL) indices, longitudinal profile concavities and steepness. Prominent drainage anomalies such as above-grade conditions, exponential and linear fitting of longitudinal profiles, elevated values of SL indices, barbed drainage, over-steepened stream segments and fluvial hanging valleys imply rapid erosion rates in the basin. This is noticeable particularly in the lower domain of the Rangit Basin, especially in the areas located downstream of the MCT. A comparison of steep segments with the geological and lineament maps reveals that many of these anomalies are lineament-controlled. Furthermore, a large number of such features do not conform to lithological intersections, suggesting a possible tectonic factor behind the occurrence of such anomalies.

Deconstructing bullying roles: A longitudinal latent profile analysis of bullying participant behaviors for students in grades 4 through 12

Bullying behavior is understood as a complex social phenomenon that includes many, and sometimes overlapping, bullying participant behaviors. The current study utilized latent profile analysis (LPA) at two time points approximately one year apart and examined what bullying participant behavior groups emerged based on students' reported levels of bullying, assisting, victimization, defending, and outsider behavior. Additionally, longitudinal latent profile analyses (LLPA) were utilized to examine potential changes in groups over time. Results suggested four groups found at two timepoints: (a) Uninvolved-Occasional Defending, with defending at a monthly rate and infrequent engagement in other behaviors; (b) Frequent Defending-Occasional Victimization, with monthly victimization and weekly defending behaviors; (c) Frequent Victimization-Occasional Broad Involvement, with weekly levels of victimization and monthly bullying, defending, and outsider behaviors; and (d) Frequent Broad Involvement, with weekly engagement in all of the bully participant behaviors (i.e., bullying, assisting, victimization, defending, and outsider behavior). The largest proportion of students (more than half) were in the Uninvolved-Occasional Defending group, which was also the most stable group over time. The smallest group (7%) was Frequent Broad Involvement, which was the least stable group over time, with students in this group typically moving to groups with at least occasional broad involvement of bullying participant behaviors. More male students than female students were in both broad involvement groups (i.e., Frequent Victimization-Occasional Broad Involvement; Frequent Broad Involvement) and more female students than male students, as well as more elementary students than secondary students, were in the Frequent Defending-Occasional Victimization group. The current study suggests that researchers should use caution when categorizing or conceptualizing simple bullying participant roles such as bully or victim, or even “bully-victim,” especially if the other bullying participant behaviors are not assessed. Practitioners should develop interventions that capitalize on the high proportions of students engaging in some level of defending and account for the complex social ecology that suggests that students are engaging in complex overlapping patterns of bullying participant behaviors.

Links Between Early Personal Characteristics, Longitudinal Profiles of Peer Victimization in School and Victimization in College or at Work.

This study used a longitudinal design from age six through age 19 (N = 1206 (603 girls)) to examine the associations between anxious-withdrawal and reactive aggression during childhood, distinct profiles of peer victimization from kindergarten to grade 11 and victimization in college or at work in emerging adulthood. In particular, it was tested whether the predictive effect of personal characteristics on victimization in emerging adulthood would be mediated via chronic peer victimization experiences during the school years. Teachers evaluated children's personal characteristics, whereas peer nominations and self-reports were used to assess victimization. Control variables included sex, parent-reported harsh parenting and SES. Longitudinal latent profile analysis revealed four distinct profiles of peer victimization during the school years: Consistently-Low (39.7%), Low-Moderate (42.8%), High-Decreasing (8.8%) and High-Increasing-Decreasing (8.7%). A subsequent 3-step regression-based path analysis supported the mediation hypothesis - albeit differently for different profiles of peer victimization. Specifically, compared to a Consistently-Low profile of peer victimization in school, a High-Decreasing profile was predicted by reactive aggression, but not anxious-withdrawal. In contrast, a High-Increasing-Decreasing profile was predicted by reactive aggression and anxious-withdrawal. In turn, elevated peer victimization profiles were associated with higher levels of later victimization in college or at work. The indirect effects linking the childhood behaviors to later victimization in college or at work - via elevated peer victimization profiles during childhood and adolescence - were significant. These results highlight the need for tailored interventions to optimize reactively aggressive or anxious-withdrawn children's response strategies to challenging and potentially threatening peer interactions.

An examination of the joint effects of adolescent interpersonal styles and parenting styles on substance use.

The current study examined how parenting and adolescent interpersonal styles jointly influence youths' abilities to form close relationships - a central developmental milestone - yet avoid substance use, which predominantly occurs in the presence of peers. Nine annual waves from an adolescent sample (N = 387) were used to assess (a) combinations of interpersonal and parenting styles from early to middle adolescence using longitudinal latent profile analysis, (b) the validity of these profiles on indicators of adjustment, and (c) the relationships between the profiles and growth in substance use across adolescence as well as substance-related consequences in late adolescence. The results supported five distinct combinations of interpersonal and parenting styles, and validity analyses identified both risk and protective profiles. The protective profile submissive-communal interpersonal style + high-warmth-authoritative parenting style was associated with indicators of positive social adjustment (e.g., friendship quality, resistance to peer influence) as well as lower levels of substance use. Significant differences also emerged with respect to substance-related consequences. The findings of this study highlight how combinations of adolescent interpersonal style and parenting render adolescents more or less successful at navigating peer relationships while avoiding substance use behaviors.

Resilience Factors in the Association Between Depressive Symptoms and Suicidality

PurposeTo investigate whether life satisfaction and optimism might reduce the risk of suicidal thoughts and behaviors among adolescents with depressive symptoms. MethodsParticipants were 1,904 youth from the NEXT Generation Health Study, a national sample of U.S. adolescents, followed over 7 years from 2009/2010 to 2015/2016. Longitudinal latent profile analysis and logistic regressions were conducted. ResultsWe identified three subgroups of adolescents with different patterns of depressive symptoms across the first six waves: “Low” (40%), “Mild” (42%), and “Moderate to Severe” (18%). The Moderate to Severe (OR = 14.47, 95% CI [6.61, 31.66]) and Mild (OR = 3.90, 95% CI [2.22, 6.86]) depression profiles had significantly higher odds of developing suicidality than the Low depression profile. Both life satisfaction and optimism moderated the association between depressive symptom profile and suicidality. The difference in suicidality risk between the Mild and Low depression profiles was significantly attenuated at high versus low levels of life satisfaction, with a difference of −.08, 95% CI [−.14, −.03]. In addition, the difference in suicidality risk between the Moderate to Severe and Low depression profiles was attenuated at high versus low levels of optimism, with a difference of −.11, 95% CI [−.21, −.01]. ConclusionsFor adolescents transitioning to young adulthood, resilience factors such as life satisfaction and optimism may buffer against suicidality risk in the face of mild or moderate to severe depressive symptoms.

Dynamics of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in convalescent plasma donors.

ObjectivesCharacterisation of the human antibody response to SARS‐CoV‐2 infection is vital for serosurveillance purposes and for treatment options such as transfusion with convalescent plasma or immunoglobulin products derived from convalescent plasma. In this study, we longitudinally and quantitatively analysed antibody responses in RT‐PCR‐positive SARS‐CoV‐2 convalescent adults during the first 250 days after onset of symptoms.MethodsWe measured antibody responses to the receptor‐binding domain (RBD) of the SARS‐CoV‐2 spike protein and the nucleocapsid protein in 844 longitudinal samples from 151 RT‐PCR‐positive SARS‐CoV‐2 convalescent adults. With a median of 5 (range 2–18) samples per individual, this allowed quantitative analysis of individual longitudinal antibody profiles. Kinetic profiles were analysed by mixed‐effects modelling.ResultsAll donors were seropositive at the first sampling moment, and only one donor seroreverted during follow‐up analysis. Anti‐RBD IgG and anti‐nucleocapsid IgG levels declined with median half‐lives of 62 and 59 days, respectively, 2–5 months after symptom onset, and several‐fold variation in half‐lives of individuals was observed. The rate of decline of antibody levels diminished during extended follow‐up, which points towards long‐term immunological memory. The magnitude of the anti‐RBD IgG response correlated well with neutralisation capacity measured in a classic plaque reduction assay and in an in‐house developed competitive assay.ConclusionThe result of this study gives valuable insight into the long‐term longitudinal response of antibodies to SARS‐CoV‐2.

Segmenting Tourism Markets Based on Demand Growth Patterns: A Longitudinal Profile Analysis Approach

Despite the abundance in methodologies for tourism demand modeling, most methods examine demand growth levels rather than growth patterns. The latter, however, can be of great value for destination management to minimize business risks and for authorities to prescribe effective policies. Meanwhile, describing demand growth as a simplex S-shaped life-cycle curve may oversimplify the heterogeneity in visitor flows. There is thus a need for methods that can identify market segments based on demand growth patterns to enable smart destination management strategies and provide theoretical insights. This article introduces a longitudinal profile analysis via multidimensional scaling (LPAMS) as an effective and easy to implement data-driven segmentation tool. This practitioner-friendly quantitative analytic tool is justified in the theoretical background of embracing complexity in business research, data disaggregation, and modeling interdependence in tourism forecasting. The conceptual and procedural details of LPAMS are explained at a level that is comfortably understood by researchers and practitioners, together with methodological comparisons with conventional methods. A demonstration of LPAMS is presented to identify five typical annual arrivals’ growth patterns of Australia’s 43 main inbound markets over 1991-2016. This study contributes to the methodologies for longitudinal tourism demand analysis and market segmentation techniques.

Tectonic geomorphology and Plio-Quaternary structural evolution of the Tuzgölü fault zone, Turkey: Implications for deformation in the interior of the Central Anatolian Plateau

AbstractSituated within the interior of the Central Anatolian Plateau (Turkey), the 200-km-long Tuzgölü extensional fault zone offers first-order constraints on the timing and pattern of regional deformation and uplift. In this study, we analyze the morphometrics of catchments along the Tuzgölü range-front fault and the parallel, basinward Hamzalı fault using a variety of measured morphometric indicators coupled with regional geomorphic observations and longitudinal profile analysis. In addition, we use field and remote mapping to constrain the geometry of two key marker beds, the Pliocene Kızılkaya ignimbrite and Kışladaǧ limestone, in order to investigate deformation in the footwall of the Tuzgölü fault zone. The marker beds form a broad arch along the footwall of the fault, with greatest cumulative displacement along the central part of the fault zone, suggesting early Pliocene extensional reactivation of the Tuzgölü fault with a typical fault-displacement profile. However, a change in deformation pattern is marked by transient knickpoints along river channels; morphometric indicators sensitive to shorter (1−3 Ma) time scales, including river steepness, basin elongation, and mountain front sinuosity, indicate an overall southeastward increase in footwall uplift rate of the Tuzgölü fault zone, which could reflect block rotation or interaction with the Hasan Dag volcano. Basin asymmetry and basin-fault azimuth measurements indicate north-northwest tilting of footwall catchments, which may be linked to regional tilting across the Central Anatolian Plateau interior. Varying patterns of spatial and temporal deformation along the length of the Tuzgölü fault zone are likely due to the interference of crustal- and lithospheric-scale processes, such as rotation of crustal blocks, extrusion of the Anatolian microplate, crustal heating, gravitational collapse associated with plateau uplift, and mantle-driven vertical displacements.

Analysis and modelling of longitudinal deformation profiles of tunnels excavated in strain-softening time-dependent rock masses

The first author was supported by a UPC BarcelonaTech/CSC Joint Scholarship (No. 201706260240). This research was partially supported by the International Scientific and Technological Cooperation Projects of Shaoxing University (No. 2019LGGH1008) and the CODE_BRIGHT Project (International Centre for Numerical Methods in Engineering).

Long-term (2002–2017) impacts of Danjiangkou dam on thermal regimes of downstream Han River (China) using Landsat thermal infrared imagery

This work quantified the long-term (2002–2017) impacts of the Danjiangkou dam (China) on the thermal regimes of downstream Han River using Landsat thermal infrared imageries, with an emphasis on the effect of dam heightening. The accuracy assessment of satellite-derived temperatures indicated a root-mean-square error of 0.95 °C, suggesting an accurate retrieval of water temperature. The long-term analysis detected a seasonal cycle of thermal impacts, with strong cooling in summer, moderate cooling in spring and autumn whereas no significant changes in winter. The cycle was likely attributed to the seasonal thermal stratification in the dammed reservoir. The analysis also revealed a pronounced year-to-year variability in the thermal impacts. This was especially the case after the heightening of dam in 2013, which led to a stronger cooling effect and a longer cooling duration. The inter-annual variability can be largely explained by the varying reservoir water levels associated with dam operation and dam heightening, as well as tributary inflows and water diversion projects. The longitudinal thermal profile analysis suggested at least a length of 20 km downstream river was thermally affected. The cooling effects may be significant to the aquatic ecosystems of downstream river, especially with respect to the delay of Famous Four species of Chinese Carp spawning or the reduction and downstream shift of spawning sites. The findings provide new scientific understandings about the long-term seasonal thermal regimes of dammed rivers and the techniques can be extended to the global scale to investigate thermal effects of large dams.

S134. INCIDENCE, IMPACT AND TRAJECTORIES OF PSYCHOTIC EXPERIENCES FROM CHILDHOOD TO ADULTHOOD, AND PREDICTION OF PSYCHOTIC DISORDER

BackgroundGiven the global burden of disease of psychotic disorders and the promise of benefit from early intervention, there is an imperative to understand the developmental trajectories from onset of psychotic experiences to clinical disorder and to improve identification of individuals at greatest risk.The aims of this study therefore were: 1) to describe, for the first time, the change in incidence of psychotic experiences in the general population from childhood through early adulthood; 2) to describe the prevalence and burden of unmet clinical need of at-risk mental states and psychotic disorder among young adults in the general population; 3) to examine the predictive ability of both self-reported and interviewer-rated measures of psychotic experiences during childhood and adolescence in identifying psychotic disorder by early adulthood; and 4) to describe longitudinal profiles of psychotic experiences from childhood through early adulthood and investigate a comprehensive range of childhood determinants of symptom persistence.MethodsWe used data from the ALSPAC birth cohort study. Psychotic experiences and disorder were assessed using semi-structured interviews at ages 12, 18, and 24 (N=7,900 with any data). Incidence rates were estimated using flexible parametric modeling, and positive predictive values (PPVs), sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve were estimated for prediction. Longitudinal profiles were constructed based on interviewer ratings and frequency of experiences, with profiles describing no experiences (62.5%), episodic experiences (26.5%), persistent/recurrent low frequency (9.1%), and persistent/recurrent high frequency (1.9%) groups. Multinomial regression was used to examine risk factors for persistence, covering socio-demographic, genetic, behavioural, cognitive, and psychological characteristics during childhood.ResultsThe incidence rate of psychotic experiences increased between ages 12 and 24, peaking during late adolescence. A total of 109 individuals (2.8%) met criteria for a psychotic disorder up to age 24, of whom 70% had sought professional help. Prediction of current psychotic disorder at age 24 (N=47, 1.2%), by both self-report and interviewer-rated measures of psychotic experiences at age 18 (PPVs, 2.9% and 10.0%, respectively), was improved by incorporating information on frequency and distress (PPVs, 13.3% and 20.0%, respectively), although sensitivities were low. The PPV of an at-risk mental state at age 18 predicting incident disorder at ages 18–24 was 21.1% (95%CI 6.1, 45.6), and the sensitivity was 14.3% (95%CI 4.0, 32.7).Longitudinal profile analysis showed that persistence was highest in those with higher levels of emotional instability and borderline personality traits in childhood, whilst persistence was strongly related to concurrent and increasing levels of social isolation, anxiety, self-harm, and substance use over time.DiscussionOur study results show a peak in incidence of psychotic experience during late adolescence just prior to the peak incidence rate for schizophrenia, and an unmet need for care in young people with psychotic disorders. Although we show the potential efficiency of self-report measures for prediction, because of the low sensitivity, targeting individuals in non-help-seeking samples based only on more severe symptom cutoff thresholds will likely have little impact on population levels of first-episode psychosis. The primary characteristics indexing whether psychotic experiences are likely to persist over time is the presence of emotion regulation difficulties in childhood, providing evidence of a potentially modifiable target for prevention.