Analysis Of Futures Research Articles

Visibility graph analysis of crude oil futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict

Visibility graph analysis of crude oil futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict

Seeing the Futures: Evaluating the Application of Structured Analytic Technique Alternative Futures Analysis

The Structured Analytic Technique (SAT) Alternative Futures Analysis (AFA) is an imaginative thinking technique used by intelligence analysts in circumstances of uncertainty to generate and explore a range of potential future states. Recent literature on SATs has been critical of their use because of an absence of robust evidence of their value. This research observed focus groups which applied AFA to a specific case study and evaluated their outputs. The results suggest AFA can be used less prescriptively than some of the literature sets out in terms of group size and timeframe, while also supporting the recommended use of a facilitator. An understanding of the purpose of AFA as an imaginative thinking technique, intended to explore future possibilities, is vital in applying the technique, evaluating it, and communicating the results. The potential for mismatch between the criteria suggested to analyse SATs in general and the intent of AFA as a technique, undervalues the technique. A key consideration in evaluating AFA, is the need to ensure the technique is applied as intended. Further, this research identifies that the learning context may influence the application of AFA.

Comparative analysis of futures contract cross-hedging effectiveness for soybean: models and insights

ABSTRACT The purpose of this research is to investigate the use of cross-hedging in the South African soybean market, by using the JSE BEAN contract as a cross-hedge instrument for the JSE SOYA contract. The research study involves a detailed assessment of the data, which includes the use of stationarity tests such as the Phillips-Perron and Augmented Dickey-Fuller, as well as the Johansen co-integration approach to analyse long-term relationships between the variables. To evaluate the efficiency of cross-hedging strategies, three distinct hedging models are used: the ordinary least squares (OLS) model, error correction model (ECM) and EC-GARCH. The results demonstrate that these models produce significant hedge ratios. Through back-testing and the application of hedging strategies, it is determined that the JSE BEAN contract holds the potential to serve as a cross-hedge for the JSE SOYA contract in the South African soybean market. This study provides useful information for market participants and model selection in the context of cross-hedging.

Eco-Innovative Military Procurement: An Alternative Futures Approach

Abstract Military organizations must develop their capabilities to be innovative and achieve eco-innovative goals. A literature review was used as the research method to understand better how this can be done. Our approach combines existing literature from various sources to uncover new insights for military leaders. This study examines specific military literature to explore the different aspects of eco-innovation capability development within the Army. The findings can help military organizations enhance their command and supply capabilities and achieve success in their respective operational fields. We applied an alternative futures analysis to the hierarchy process to thoroughly examine the eco-innovation issue. This tool proved instrumental in formulating an initial scenario to enhance the considered capability. The resulting scenarios are critically evaluated to provide conclusive insights and address the research queries. The critical aspects synthesized for eco-leadership implementation in a military organization will be an essential extension for enabling future iterations of eco-innovation capability development processes.

Introduction to the Special Issue: Foregrounding social movement futures: collective action, imagination, and methodology

ABSTRACT The future – as a theme, research orientation, and mode of framing societal challenges – is becoming important in the social sciences. Yet the absence of collective action in many such accounts makes clear the potential contribution of social movement studies. In social movement studies, meanwhile, the future has been discussed directly and indirectly. Assumptions about timing, activist orientations towards the future, and causation are embedded in understandings of strategy, agency, mobilisation, tactical choice, consequences, and in concepts of waves, cycles and diffusion. Conceptual developments around temporalities, real utopias and grassroots initiatives, imagination, and prefiguration offer some alternative perspectives and promising new directions. Foregrounding social movement futures also has implications for protesters themselves: ideas and emotions relating to the future are central to activist debates about goals, winning, utopia, hope and burnout. This introduction reviews the societal and academic context for the renewed interest in futures that are relevant for social movement studies, before outlining three major movement areas or debates where futures are implicated, and which need to form part of future research. These areas, and the subdiscipline as a whole, it is argued, may also benefit from a more direct analysis of movement futures.

Structural Dynamics of Indian Commodity Derivatives Market

"The inter temporal dimensions of an asset are examined through the price discovery function analysis of futures and spot price dynamics. The present study used Granger causality test and Chow test to analyze the price discovery function and the structural break of the agriculture, base metals, bullion, and energy commodities futures and spot prices during 2016-2022. The findings revealed the bidirectional causality between both the spot and future markets except gold exhibited unidirectional causality where the future market lead on the spot return is greater than contrary. Since the selected time period captures the crisis period, understanding the dynamic patterns is important for derivative valuation, hedging and asset allocation. The result of structural break revealed that among the selected commodities, only few commodities does not exhibit the structural break during the crisis period. This infer that the demand and supply for those commodities would exist in equilibrium condition and the shocks would not be transmitted to the price of commodities. The study makes recommendations for market participants to use arbitrage and hedging tactics. Additionally, it assists the regulators in assessing the steadiness of expanding commodity futures markets in India."

Hedging rainfall risk: An illustrative analysis of rainfall index-based futures contracts

Various studies have attempted to explore rainfall index (RI)-based derivatives as a tool to hedge rainfall risk. But no study delved into the issue to discuss the potential deployment of those tools for hedging rainfall risk on a model based on RI-based futures (RIBFs). An illustrative analysis of RIBFs contracts as hedging instruments has been undertaken in this study. The study is fundamentally based on empirical data. A brief account of the rainfall risk profile is presented to indicate the risk diversification opportunity. Besides, the results of an analysis of the correlation between the RI and the stock market index are projected to establish the RI as a unique asset class. The monsoon rainfall data for 50 years, i.e., from 1971 to 2020 have been considered. The Sensex and Nifty stock market indices data covered a period of 30 years, from 1991 to 2020. The study used correlation, the GARCH (1,1) model, and ratio analysis to test the hypotheses. A hypothetical insurance company representing major stakeholders in need of rainfall risk hedging has been taken as an example for evaluating the utility of RIBFs contracts as hedging tools. The results reveal that the party buying RIBFs contracts can significantly reduce the loss of revenue due to adverse monsoon outcomes.

Participatory Policy Packaging for Transport Backcasting: A Pathway for Reducing CO2 Emissions from Transport in Malta

Significant emission reductions are needed in the transport sector to reach climate change mitigation objectives. Backcasting, a type of scenario-analysis approach, is a useful tool for the analysis of possible alternative transport futures and strategies to arrive at these futures when the business-as-usual projection is no longer sustainable. The backcasting approach consists of establishing desirable futures and examining the pathways by which those futures can be reached. This paper focuses on the policy packaging phase of a transport backcasting study carried out in the context of Malta as a case study. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the existing literature on transport and climate change using the case of Malta, which presents a context of high dependency on private cars and difficulty in transitioning to sustainable mobility. This paper tests the usefulness of a practice-based approach to transport backcasting. The results of this backcasting framework are a set of climate policies that target different elements of mobility practices and suggest that interventions for sustainable mobility should go beyond transport and target other spheres of social life. Collaboration between stakeholders and participation of citizens during the backcasting process was key to making the policy design process more participatory. Results of this study show how new approaches can open possibilities for a transition towards more sustainable mobility and contribute to widening the knowledge in the field of transport backcasting studies.

Research hotspots and trend analysis of cell transplantation in traumatic spinal cord injury: a bibliometric and visualized analysis.

Background: A traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI) can lead to severe nerve damage and disability. Cell transplantation therapy has shown great potential in the reconstruction of damaged spinal cords and promoting functional recovery. However, there is a lack of frontiers and futures analysis in the study of cell transplantation in TSCI. Methods: We used CiteSpace, VOSviewer and biblilometrix R package to perform bibliometric analysis on cell transplantation in TSCI from 2013 to 2023. Bibliometric records were extracted from English articles and reviews from the Web of Science core collection. Results: The bibliometric analysis included 284 papers published in 154 journals by 1,780 authors from 487 institutions in 41 countries and regions. The number of articles published in the past decade has fluctuated slightly, while the number of article citations has steadily increased. Mainland China and the United States are the leading countries and regions in this field, with the National Natural Science Foundation of China being the most funded foundation, and the United States being the country with the most funded articles. The University of Toronto in Canada is a prolific institution. Michael G. Fehlings has published the most articles, and D Michele Basso is the most cited author. Cell transplantation is the most published journal, and the Journal of Neurotrauma is the most cited journal. Cell and tissue engineering and clinical neurology are the basic disciplines in this field, and cutting-edge disciplines include developmental biology, biochemistry and molecular biology, and materials science and multidisciplinary. This study also helps scholars understand the current hotspots and future trends in this field. Marrow stromal cells, glial progenitor, and cell therapy are current research hotspots in this field, while nerve regeneration, cell therapy, and the safety of transplantation of transplantation may be potential research directions in the future. Conclusion: Cell transplantation after TSCI is receiving increasing attention. Cell therapy is both the frontier and a possible future trend in TSCI research. In addition, glial progenitor and marrow stromal cells are also current research hotspots. Meanwhile, nerve regeneration and safety of transplantation may be potential research directions. These findings will help further deepen research on cell transplantation for TSCI in scientific work.

The place and limits of futures analysis: Strategy under uncertainty 25 years on

AbstractThis paper revisits a 1997 Harvard Business Review article, “Strategy Under Uncertainty,” 25 years after publication, to selectively and critically extract its insights for the current era in futures and foresight work. It relates the original article to ongoing purpose and methodological issues in the futures field and outlines the ways its concepts remain pertinent in academic futures understanding and organizational futures practice.

The Bitcoin volume-volatility relationship: A high frequency analysis of futures and spot exchanges

We examine the volume-volatility relationship across Bitcoin futures and spot markets, using daily realised volatility measures estimated from high frequency intraday data. We estimate realised spot volatility across five major exchanges using both the standard volume weighted price and using a new approach, inspired by the CME Bitcoin Reference Rate methodology. We find that unexpected trading volume is the most important explanatory variable for BRR spot volatility, explaining 20% of variation in price volatility at exchange level. Conversely, we find that both expected and unexpected CME Bitcoin futures volumes play a very limited or even calming role in systemic volatility. Our findings suggest that CME Bitcoin futures are not independently contributing to systemic risk in Bitcoin over the period studied.

Threat, fixable or opportunity? Contested smart home futures in the German social media debate

The idea of the ‘smart home’ envisions futures of a transformed day-to-day life. However, contrary to the glossy visions of the smart home industry, the public discourse in Germany is marked by skepticism due to concerns about data protection, security risks and state surveillance. This paper seeks to illustrate how certain social groups imagine the smart home and how fears and promises related to the digitalized home shape the public social media debate in Germany. We advance the analysis of smart energy futures with a novel methodological approach which combines quantitative network analysis with qualitative discourse analysis. We apply our approach to the online discourse around ‘#smarthome’ on Twitter and related media spaces in Germany in 2018 and 2019, which unveils the contested German smart home imaginaries.We identify five discourse coalitions that constitute shared understandings and perceptions of smart home futures in the social media sphere in Germany: Threat, Hackable, Useless, Fixable and Opportunity. Those discourse coalitions form around specific storylines that reveal partly opposing perspectives and competing ideas on what smart home systems might or should entail for society. Our empirical analyses reveal that in Germany, the envisioned smart home is highly contested and public discourse on social media is dominated by actors who critically interrogate the promises and prospects of smart home futures.

Right to Development Governance: A Policy Proposition for the Kingdom of Lesotho

Abstract In this article, we advance a right to development governance policy proposition for the Kingdom of Lesotho. Contrary to the grim realities that portray Lesotho as landlocked and least developed, the country presents enormous potential, which with the correct policy choices, can radically transform the development landscape across the country. To harness Lesotho’s multiple development futures with strategic foresight entails blending futures analysis with scenario development modelling, absent which is bound to produce ambiguities in policy formulation. From a blend of perspectives in law, economics and political science, we inquire whether an alternative model could produce transformative development deliverables in Lesotho. Drawing from the modelling of three development scenarios, we argue in favour of the right to development governance model, which we find more pragmatic, with the potential to respond to Lesotho’s situational realities.

Examining the differential risk from high-level artificial intelligence and the question of control

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one of the most transformative technologies of the 21st century. The extent and scope of future AI capabilities remain a key uncertainty, with widespread disagreement on timelines and potential impacts. As nations and technology companies race toward greater complexity and autonomy in AI systems, there are concerns over the extent of integration and oversight of opaque AI decision processes. This is especially true in the subfield of machine learning (ML), where systems learn to optimize objectives without human assistance. Objectives can be imperfectly specified or executed in an unexpected or potentially harmful way. This becomes more concerning as systems increase in power and autonomy, where an abrupt capability jump could result in unexpected shifts in power dynamics or even catastrophic failures. This study presents a hierarchical complex systems framework to model AI risk and provide a template for alternative futures analysis. Survey data were collected from domain experts in the public and private sectors to classify AI impact and likelihood. The results show increased uncertainty over the powerful AI agent scenario, confidence in multiagent environments, and increased concern over AI alignment failures and influence-seeking behavior.

Price discovery in equity markets: A state-dependent analysis of spot and futures markets

This paper investigates the potentially time-varying importance of spot and futures markets in the price discovery process of financial assets. For this purpose, we generalize the concept of component shares and information shares to allow for state-dependent relevance of different markets over time. Instead of using a linear vector error correction model (VECM) to construct the component shares and information shares as it is common in the literature, we employ a Markov-switching VECM with time-varying adjustment behaviour and state-dependent covariance matrices. Simulation results confirm that state-dependent component shares and information shares can be estimated consistently within this framework. We apply our approach to spot and futures prices for different stock indices such as EuroStoxx50, FTSE100, Nikkei225, and SP500. We find a clear state probability pattern over the trading day that closely resembles the well-studied volatility smile and might be related to the presence of heterogeneous agents in those markets.

Multiscale correlation analysis of Sino-US corn futures markets and the impact of international crude oil price: A new perspective from the multifractal method

Based on the multifractal method, this paper studies the dynamic characteristics of the cross-correlation between Sino-US corn futures markets after 2020 in the context of a series of exogenous shocks, and the impact of international crude oil prices on this relationship. We find that the cross-correlation significantly strengthened after 2020 at multi-time scales, but its uncertainty and complexity reduced. Besides, shocks of the crude oil market increase the cross-correlation at multi-time scales, which notably weakened after 2020. This suggests the Chinese government's interventions and regulations on the domestic grain market were effective.

Breaks in term structures: Evidence from the oil futures markets

AbstractWe propose a new functional change point detection procedure, motivated by recent models for commodity futures term structure. We investigate our procedure's properties under the null hypothesis of no change and the alternative. Monte Carlo simulations reveal a reasonable power property in finite sample sizes although size distortion persists. An empirical analysis of oil futures markets identifies two change points near the 2008 financial crisis and 2020 crude oil negative territory. Regression models show that the price behaviour, in general, is exposed to the spot market index and exchange rate from 2007 to 2009. The main drivers of the price term structure are attributed to the trading activities of speculators and financial index innovations between 2017 and 2022.

The Bitcoin Volume-volatility Relationship: a High Frequency Analysis of Futures and Spot Exchanges

The Bitcoin Volume-volatility Relationship: a High Frequency Analysis of Futures and Spot Exchanges

Innovation in uncertain times: Vision and directionality for innovation systems

Introduction: In contemporary society, there is a growing expectation for STI efforts to go beyond economic growth and actively contribute to environmental protection and social justice (transformation towards sustainability). To meet this demand, it is necessary to construct innovation systems that are specifically oriented towards sustainability, facilitating the transformation of sociotechnical systems. This perspective article presents a comprehensive framework that combines theoretical and practical perspectives for implementing innovation systems, incorporating the essential elements of normativity (directionality) and exploration required to drive such transformative processes. Methodology: We formulated a methodological approach that provides innovation systems with normative and exploratory dimensions by synthesizing concepts and methods from several schools of thought, using Systems Analysis and Decision Analysis as conceptual frameworks. Results: Within the context of sustainable development, the principles of sustainability serve as the guiding framework for innovation systems. To successfully implement this approach, it is crucial to integrate both normative analysis, which emphasizes the construction of a shared vision among stakeholders within the innovation system, and exploratory analysis, which aims to identify the most viable transformation pathways for realizing the desired future. Our proposed methodological perspective, referred to as Integrated Futures Analysis, is a step-by-step generalization built upon a synthesis of empirical approaches that combines normative and exploratory analysis. This approach aims to facilitate the understanding and implementation of sustainability-oriented innovation systems. Conclusion: In this article, a synthetic and pragmatic approach to implementing sustainability-oriented innovation systems (SIS) was introduced. The perspective outlined in this article can be effectively employed by consultant teams to aid stakeholders and decision-makers in formalizing and enhancing SIS. Additionally, it helps in identifying the most appropriate actions and methods for implementation of SIS.

Asymmetric Multifractal Analysis of the Chinese Energy Futures and Energy Stock Markets under the Impact of COVID-19

The volatility and cross-correlations of the energy market and the stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic have been paid close attention by scholars and investors. In this paper, we use the asymmetric multifractal analysis methods to study the fluctuation characteristics, market risks and cross-correlations of the Chinese energy futures market (EFM) and two energy stock markets before and after the COVID-19 outbreak, while the return series of Shanghai fuel oil futures, CSI Energy Index and CSI Mainland New Energy Theme Index are considered. The empirical evidences indicate that the auto- and cross-correlations of the three markets have the asymmetric multifractality, and that the multifractality of the cross-correlations is mainly caused by the fat-tailed distribution of the original series. After the COVID-19 outbreak, the risks of both the traditional energy stock market in the uptrend and the entire new energy stock market become larger, while those of the entire EFM become smaller. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the multifractality of the cross-correlations between the energy futures and energy stock markets when the EFM is in downward trend.